Mini Theme 2212: Ircher's Grand Idea Mafia: SCUM WIN

[Psyche]

ah, what have i done!

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Anyone else catching a weird bug with post #175? Iso seems to say Robert M Hunter made the post, pew pew meow. But just looking at page 8 identifies Vaxkiller's? Eh

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guillotina is lustice jeague tight?

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Robert Hunter is very probably not mafia; would be unwise even as a gambit to shoot a bud in the circumstances under which it happened. Not sure if there's a neutral role that could've performed the kill though as I haven't really looked at the role pool yet.

Cake is town.
Irch is very probably not mafia.

Lustice is next strongest not-scum read. Lustice's turn against xz03yx that seemed to swing the wagon against sircake seemed really genuine; the xz03yx post they singled out was genuinely sketchy and for the reasons specified. Nothing in the rest of their performance came off as disingenuous either, leading me to lean more toward an explicit townread rather than just a not-scum read. I have no solid approach to search out SKs this early though.

Flea is a weaker not-mafia read. Post 122 came off as genuine everything afterward read as consistent too.

I think I also townread Enchant but it's weaker; 187 seems to reflect a certain naivette I wouldn't expect of scum.

I'd honestly prefer to lynch any of the people I haven't mentioned yet. None have done enough for me to meaningfully differentiate between them besides some gross differences in amount of fluff.

[Psyche]

Best bet atm is Asteria

VOTE: Asteria

Some okay-ish reasons:
- VCA (sircakez vote, then conveniently disappeared as discourse evolved toward his alternative)
- Apparently keeping up with the thread and engaged but not really generating content
- Consequently, I'm not seeing much sincere searching nor an excuse for that dearth

[Psyche]

Best bet atm is Asteria

VOTE: Asteria

Some okay-ish reasons:
- VCA (sircakez vote, then conveniently disappeared as discourse evolved toward his alternative)
- Apparently keeping up with the thread and engaged but not really generating content
- Consequently, I'm not seeing much sincere searching nor an excuse for that dearth

I have 3 clears and 1 solid vca scumread which I think is pretty good. That's a little over a third of the players sorted.

if it's a solid scumread then where's the push to grow a wagon

[Psyche]

I am a werewolf ninja taboo strongman

[Psyche]

Okay, I've looked into the setup a bit more deeply. Should be noted that SirCakes is technically not confirmed town: it's quite possible that Maruchan didn't assign the same alliances as specified in the Grand Idea thread and that possibility's stipulated in the ruleset.

Think people really need to internalize this principle, because it means town's reasoning behind a lot of decisions has been flawed. For example, the xz03yx vig wasn't really a 50/50 shot. We were actually way more lucky than that.

Similarly, constraining our pick claims based on alliance as I think someone suggested isn't actually discriminative: Mafia could could easily have one of the town roles if Maruchan decided that fits better into the setup, and vice versa.

[Psyche]

Unless dupe roles can be rolled, I'm happy with a mechconf cakes and biasconf on Ircher.

That I recall, only scum factions have been rolled into single alignment. alginments should be true to picks.

oh. you might be right

[Psyche]

enchant is soo cute
sure wish mafia were that easy

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vax is probably interested in robert's role because of his draft

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play like asteria's is always so annoying bc yeah the defense is totally weak and specious but also i've totally seen town act this way before no problem
i need deeper theoryyy

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Also im getting a feeling that scum is comfortable with Asteria's wagon. There is no push back.

aren't we maybe underestimating scum a little if we take feelings like these too seriously?

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i think i can swing a decent towncase for flea but maybe im misremembering i dont have my notes

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VOTE: UNVOTE

uh let's breathe a little

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what flea said

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my vote isn't listed

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is it still 12 alive?

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oh who am i miscounting

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it was T3

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think you are once again oddly assuming scum are kinda stupid

[Psyche]

actually whatever if asteria were scum and responsible of course they'd neutralize a vote at L-1

[Psyche]

and otherwise scum have no clear motive for interrupting asteria's lynch if it was going to be a mislynch

if the vote manipulation were from town believing asteria is town, i imagine we'd have heard some louder opposition to the wagon by now?

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I hate everyone who is still thinking there's a vote stealer. It shows you are either not reading or do not care to research the claim.

i only have so much time for this cute little game

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yeah i didnt know an unvoter was a -1
getting to that grand idea thread and isoing whathisname is tough on a phone

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I think Flea is town. But I guess it's only because some posts read as genuine to me and not for logical reasons. But I really do think we'd be more lucky with asteria than flea.

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also can we note for a moment that italiano has an incredibly antitown role that makes it much easier for scum to win as long as they target anyone else

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i'm talking about the bare fact that your existence if town gives scum disproportionate control over every lynch
later on they'll have LYLO a day early

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if i had been in your shoes i would've focused on somehow attracting a NK while hiding my role i guess

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VOTE: Maruchan

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wait a minute
we only get a lynch per day

UNVOTE: unvote

Fixed unvote tag
~ Kori

[Psyche]

UNVOTE: unvote

Fixed unvote tag
~ Kori

[Psyche]

the weird votecount negative-4 mentions xz03yx and still has me voting for maruchan and says maruchan is at L-5 despite having votes from 8 people i have just given up on looking at VCs super closely

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sorry; i hope i didn't come off too harshly in 550

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will do my best to keep it from being in vain

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aw man
well at least i knew well enough to come out strongly against it

[Psyche]

to not*

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is that post a joke

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almost50 was the hammer

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i am permitted one bah post!

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i dont think i like setups like these!
but im glad i could make my pr useful