Open 815: Forest Fire Redux [Endgame]


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Post Post #830 (isolation #200) » Sat Jun 12, 2021 11:07 am

Post by Prism »

In post 811, Ydrasse wrote:When i was skimming earlier human felt town to me or maybe the frustration did because i don't have a better reason to really say the posts were towny, but that's a vibe i feel is too broad recently but idk, like them fighting off being elimmed or whatever and then luke replied and i was like "really feels like they're someone in a shitty situation"

I feel like I walked back the vote on child too early but after that list it wasn't feeling good but when they posted a bit more it became a tiny bit like "I could see it"
In post 813, Ydrasse wrote:
In post 810, humaneatingmonkey wrote:It's cool to me that Ydrasse is not using her game apathy to put a half-hearted vote on me and then ditching when she could do exactly that and I think that makes her more likely to be town
I Will Die For you
I'm quoting these together. The first quote doesn't seem to care at all about this being human's modus operandi for appeals, 765, and I find 813 straight up bizarre and kind of nonsensical? Ydrasse has thrown her vote around all day on Infinity/Child but never touched the Johnny slot. At one point she has them in "could vote" but at another point takes 0 interest in it.

I think there's an argument she was more concerned with an active scumread but skirting around the inactive slot all day is ?_? which is why I just think they're both scum.
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Post Post #836 (isolation #201) » Sat Jun 12, 2021 11:13 am

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In post 833, Ydrasse wrote:My gospel will be to kill infinity
Why?

I would encourage revisiting page 22
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Post Post #842 (isolation #202) » Sat Jun 12, 2021 11:23 am

Post by Prism »

I have more thoughts on exactly why I'm keeping this vote, and find it unlikely that I personally will move, but I'd really like to hear more from Hectic, Child, & T3.

T3 is a tossup to me while Child I can see going either way but would lean town on atm. Hypothetically Child could have just stolen the alternatives I suggested but I think it's weird to just vote/unvote/revote me on a cyclical basis as scum and the combativeness w/r/t me calling them out and being rude to Infinity felt very legitimate.
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Post Post #845 (isolation #203) » Sat Jun 12, 2021 11:32 am

Post by Prism »

In post 843, Infinity 324 wrote:Prism why couldn't fidget be scum trying to get towncred/pocket you by unvoting you, if monkey is town there's no need to be opportunistic
I don't think that's the only reason she's town given the depth+explanations elsewhere but that was the strongest one liner I saw. I wouldn't call it surefire but it leaves a lot of room for uncertainty in the day's result, and given that she saw Chara's Folly she knows I am very capable of becoming universally townread on a dime. How dangerous that uncertainty is depends on her hypothetical partner. Unvoting isn't set in stone and gives a lot of flexibility, but she did not wind up revoting and here we are. I will revisit this slot at some point and do want more, and should probably revisit, but I'm fine thinking she's town atm.

In contrast I think Ydrasse got cold feet when she should have found a reason to vote me, and she's spent all day going after the LHF that's not Johnny.
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Post Post #848 (isolation #204) » Sat Jun 12, 2021 11:35 am

Post by Prism »

I don't disagree but I still find the unvote and showing up to begin with +town.

In Chara's Folly I went from minor townread to "WHERE SHE GOES WE ALL GO" level townread without even wanting that to be the case, and Fidget has demonstrated thorough knowledge of that game. Saying no to my elim as scum in that position is doing so knowing there's she is unlikely to ever get that chance again.

I don't feel I can defend her any further without revisiting, though, which I might do later tonight.
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Post Post #853 (isolation #205) » Sat Jun 12, 2021 12:09 pm

Post by Prism »

In post 814, humaneatingmonkey wrote:I really want to believe that Prism is town.
Given the extremely polarized reaction to Infinity questioning me about Hectic, it is surprising to see it mostly pass without incident for you. It was very hard to follow the argument even for me, whose reasoning was the most convoluted to begin with, so I imagine it being difficult to parse on a catch-up.
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Post Post #857 (isolation #206) » Sat Jun 12, 2021 12:14 pm

Post by Prism »

Everyone else had a very strong reaction to what I was saying on page 15/16 one way or another. You key in a bit on Infinity's reaction with the unvote but it was odd to me to see the rest about me/Hectic pass mostly without judgement.
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Post Post #858 (isolation #207) » Sat Jun 12, 2021 12:16 pm

Post by Prism »

Ydrasse, do you listen to Beach House at all? "Lemon Glow" might be a great song to listen to right now, if you're open to suggestions.
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Post Post #865 (isolation #208) » Sat Jun 12, 2021 12:30 pm

Post by Prism »

It might not be entirely fair that I'm suspicious of your reaction being
different
by focusing less on me/Hectic.

I'm feeling pretty lightheaded but will be back later.
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Post Post #877 (isolation #209) » Sat Jun 12, 2021 4:16 pm

Post by Prism »

I'm pretty shot for the night but I'll try to wake up early and work back over Monkey & Fidget
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Post Post #882 (isolation #210) » Sun Jun 13, 2021 3:46 am

Post by Prism »

ETA for me is 2 hours, at which point I will be around until deadline.
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Post Post #886 (isolation #211) » Sun Jun 13, 2021 5:59 am

Post by Prism »

Alright, I'm back, time to work over the Fidget & HEM slots. Is there anything else people want me to look out for?

T3, I would really appreciate a bit more explanation on your reads. Previously favoring them as scum doesn't mean you can't give them as town, too.
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Post Post #894 (isolation #212) » Sun Jun 13, 2021 6:28 am

Post by Prism »

My original guess for Fidget was spot on, but the tonal difference is throwing me a bit. I am now heavily opposed to voting this slot as I feel it is 100% sortable with near-certainty even if she is a great IC.

I'll still keep reading anyway, though.
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Post Post #899 (isolation #213) » Sun Jun 13, 2021 6:31 am

Post by Prism »

I'm multitasking so this is going to be difficult.

I have issues with the HEM slot's reaction yesterday but wanted to wait to feel better.

I do not want to flashwagon Child as they would be my third choice and IMO would not make a great IC if wrong, though arguably them flipping town would help us sort more than any other.

P-Edit: Sadly I believe her lack of activity atm is NAI, check for yourself.
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Post Post #901 (isolation #214) » Sun Jun 13, 2021 6:36 am

Post by Prism »

Hectic, how do you feel about Ydrasse?

I find it very suspicious that she stuck to the HEM being town, almost certainly for tone, even after it was shown to be well within HEM's repertoire.
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Post Post #903 (isolation #215) » Sun Jun 13, 2021 6:38 am

Post by Prism »

Do you expect her to stick her head in the sand and pretend those posts of mine never existed?
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Post Post #905 (isolation #216) » Sun Jun 13, 2021 6:42 am

Post by Prism »

If you are town I hope you know that one of us is so wrong that it hurts and one of us is going to have to drag the other kicking and screaming to the finish line of voting scum and dear god I hope it's you
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Post Post #906 (isolation #217) » Sun Jun 13, 2021 6:43 am

Post by Prism »

Alternatively it's something dumb like HEM/Child and we're both right
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Post Post #910 (isolation #218) » Sun Jun 13, 2021 6:50 am

Post by Prism »

So I finished reading the Fidget slot. She's not hardtown at all but I don't want to vote there.
In post 840, humaneatingmonkey wrote:Fidget's reads in #484 and #485 gives a lot of leeway on herself to flip her reads on some slots. Like she'd call a slot town, and then give a scenario that they're scum. It just doesn't seem like an actual stance to me.
I don't disagree with her leaving options open. Things like this statement are also very in line with her fears for her scumgame:
In post 620, Fidget wrote:[On Ydrasse] That is going to be tricky to explain if I keep thinking that in the future. It makes sense in my head.
Fidget is very concerned about painting herself into a corner and about keeping her reads consistent over time.

I think her reaction to me/Hectic is actually pretty in line with what she's seen of both of us, which is limited faith that we're not doing that song/dance for no reason. I definitely see her trusting Hectic's read a bit more assuming we were both town given her described experience in Chara's Folly, which was the time I tunneled Hectic for a day and a half while Hectic found scum using a similar read to the one here, as she explained.

Her tonal difference really throws me, along with the fact that she's less willing to really go to bat, but I find it being early plausible. I hope she doesn't get replaced but either way I don't want the slot flipped today.
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Post Post #915 (isolation #219) » Sun Jun 13, 2021 7:00 am

Post by Prism »

I also think that looking at the instances in context it is likely to a major scumtell. Small sample size is the only thing leaving this in doubt for me; go through and look at them yourself.

Promises for content tend to be NAI, but the similar promises as town were about being masons (true) and specifically that he was trying to protect a PR (true). In both cases he was more concerned with mechanics than proving himself town, as opposed to the others as scum where he was trying to force towntells through.
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Post Post #917 (isolation #220) » Sun Jun 13, 2021 7:04 am

Post by Prism »

In post 914, humaneatingmonkey wrote:Hey I think I totally won't be able to join you guys tonight, but I'll just catch up later stumped or not. I have to prioritize something :P Just tell me where to vote.
It uhhhh looks like you have something more important to do which is fair, I wanted to ask this after I had time to completely reevaluate your argument and contextualize it but I'll skip ahead so you can answer

It is very difficult for me to wrap my head around why I am so hardtown to you, or why you trust me to pick correctly so much given that I have openly tunneled you all day. The first is more important than the second. I understand you believed me/Infinity to be aligned, and eventually ruled out SvS, but I'm skeptical of the reasoning for why I couldn't be scum and her town. It was her evolution that was really pivotal and town-indicative imo, as scum it's easy for me to just sit there and harass her hoping she submits.

Everything about my yesterday with you was engineered to drive you to perform well and give better content even if only to spite me for saying you couldn't, so seeing you
want
me to be town as opposed to wanting me to be scum was also very surprising to me.
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Post Post #918 (isolation #221) » Sun Jun 13, 2021 7:06 am

Post by Prism »

In post 916, humaneatingmonkey wrote:Prism are you counting nightless vanilla where I also promised that I'm town
I did not, as it didn't show up in my search results. Ctrl+F searching for "promise" yields 0 and "town" yields 105 results so do you mind linking the post where you said similar?
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Post Post #920 (isolation #222) » Sun Jun 13, 2021 7:21 am

Post by Prism »

In post 888, Hectic wrote:Fairy Child was very comprehensive and thorough in their responses to both Prism and I, but I find it scum-indicative to have that kind WIM to defend yourself but not put nearly as much effort into discussing other things that doesn't involve defending themselves (earlier in the game)

It's a more defensive mindset which can come from town but also comes from scum a whole lot of the time
I shared this concern with Child, which is why I pushed so much for breadth. I think the explanation in 317 is very plausible from someone with their described experience. I think the reads wall they gave was quite strong looking back at it now, both in context with what was posted at the time (see previous agreement with Infinity's reads) and with their description of my blowup with Infinity that was affirmed later. I don't see any glaringly obvious issues with the responses to the questions posed by yourself and Fidget, even if longwinded. I found 676 pretty town, and while there is some scum incentive to unvote in 716 there also...isn't much to gain, either. It's null at worst IMO.
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Post Post #921 (isolation #223) » Sun Jun 13, 2021 7:22 am

Post by Prism »

In post 919, Ydrasse wrote:i'm around in the most loose sense of the word.
can you directly quote/link the posts you townread from HEM, no further commentary required unless you want to
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Post Post #923 (isolation #224) » Sun Jun 13, 2021 7:32 am

Post by Prism »

gdi fidget

well now we get more time, back to reading about the taiping rebellion i guess
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Post Post #926 (isolation #225) » Sun Jun 13, 2021 7:37 am

Post by Prism »

While I get that perspective, and really want a strong IC if we're wrong today, chances are we're both town and I think HEM flips scum and we solve that problem for you that way.
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Post Post #928 (isolation #226) » Sun Jun 13, 2021 7:42 am

Post by Prism »

This says nothing about the quality of their reads/strength as a player but given the scarcity of their posting, even under pressure and as an unclear, and that the bulk of their content has come almost entirely in the form of defense I really, really don't want to have them as an IC.
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Post Post #931 (isolation #227) » Sun Jun 13, 2021 7:43 am

Post by Prism »

I'm unironically fine getting stumped now, I'm not as spiteful as I was back then and feel very, very good about the quality of my reads. I am a lot more concerned about the loss of vote/agency.
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Post Post #932 (isolation #228) » Sun Jun 13, 2021 7:44 am

Post by Prism »

OH THANK GOD THAT CLUTCH REPLACEMENT
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Post Post #934 (isolation #229) » Sun Jun 13, 2021 7:45 am

Post by Prism »

totally unbiased tl;dr vote hem or ydrasse they're both scum

child/t3 are great runnerups due to sparser posting but are absolutely not who we want as an IC if wrong
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Post Post #935 (isolation #230) » Sun Jun 13, 2021 7:47 am

Post by Prism »

In post 924, Ydrasse wrote:
Spoiler:
In post 743, humaneatingmonkey wrote:Like if people really want to elim me because they think there are no other options it sucks but I don't think I can fight that because I understand we have no time before deadline but I wish I'm given a chance here

As of now, I'm willing to elim between Infinity 324, Fidget, Child of Fairies and maybe maybe maybe Prism. But I'm still not past page 13. Please give me time to be in this game.
In post 756, humaneatingmonkey wrote:i am town prism i promise you
In post 758, humaneatingmonkey wrote:like im still not in the position to tell people who to vote because i don't have firm grasp of the game yet, and i hate that, but i'm not it
In post 762, humaneatingmonkey wrote:like, if i'm gonna choose between limming me and no lim, i will choose no lim because my flip is meaningless anyway
In post 766, humaneatingmonkey wrote:You can be skeptical. It's a fucking promise in a mafia game. I'm just trying really hard to communicate that I'm town right now.

I will resist this lim with all my might and I'm not going down without a fight.
In post 772, humaneatingmonkey wrote:I'm gonna fight this lim. If you're town, stay out of my lim if you're only gonna "compromise". I suggest you look elsewhere and create a counterwagon.

If I'm gonna be limmed today, I'm gonna make it as valuable as possible.
In post 774, humaneatingmonkey wrote:That's fine if you really think that I'm scum, and not just someone you want to elim because it's easier.
In post 775, humaneatingmonkey wrote:Tell me why I'm scum again, Prism
In post 780, humaneatingmonkey wrote:Infinity, your turn. Why am I scum?
In post 786, humaneatingmonkey wrote:But then again you might just be trying to lim me using that exact reason because you're scum here

it's okay. it's not like i'm going anywhere. I'll haunt you.


feel town to me, reread felt like way i acted as scum once so less sure. don't know if the latter means anything since not me.
greatly appreciated, the only question i have about this is what you think about
In post 765, Prism wrote:
In post 877, humaneatingmonkey wrote:Let me sleep clidd. I promise I'm town. If you're town, just give me time to convince you. You have nothing to lose.
This is a quote of yours from a scumgame, so I believe I am right to be skeptical.

I found 3 others for a 2/2 split but both of the more appealing ones were scum-you.
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Post Post #939 (isolation #231) » Sun Jun 13, 2021 7:52 am

Post by Prism »

In post 937, Ydrasse wrote:if you vote me just remember i'm not going to be around a lot as a stump, not even out of spite anymore. i just don't have the spoons to play.

some part of me is very spiteful about being misread regardless but, whatever.

p-edit: i dunno, makes me doubt my read on hem i guess. they seem keen on surviving this game which doesn't make as much sense but i dunno, the anger with being miselimmed despite the mechanic resonated with me.
I want to make this more enjoyable for you but don't really know how. I'm sorry if I'm wrong, but it would make me really happy if you put me on your gigantic muscular shoulders and carried me to a win despite my best efforts.
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Post Post #941 (isolation #232) » Sun Jun 13, 2021 7:54 am

Post by Prism »

My vote preference would be HEM->Ydrasse->Skitter->Child. Skitter is a townlean but flipping the slot isn't the worst and I'm a lot less confident in being able to sort her longterm+would make a decent IC.
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Post Post #943 (isolation #233) » Sun Jun 13, 2021 7:55 am

Post by Prism »

In post 940, Ydrasse wrote:my lack of enjoyment is entirely due to oog circumstances right now, so you don't need to apologize. you're just playing the game and i don't have the energy to like, convince you that you're wrong. i don't think you're scum but i also equally think you're predisposed to scumreading me to some degree. i dunno. could be wrong in my assumption. it's just frustrating way more than it normally would be.
I get why you think that but I would also point out that in BoI, where I went a clean 2/2, I was forced to ignore my second scumread Day 2 in order to optimize the game mechanically and so had to go witchhunting for a backup. I started out this game townleaning you, too.
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Post Post #950 (isolation #234) » Sun Jun 13, 2021 8:04 am

Post by Prism »

I dunno Ydrasse. Maybe me defending myself in 943 is counterproductive. What I should & want to make clear is how earnestly I want your perspective and want you in the game, and how lacking I felt the game was when that perspective was missing. I can & do often disagree with your perspective but that doesn't mean I don't respect it (and although it might have seemed otherwise, that's exactly why I reacted so strongly to the low bar for Hectic) or desire it.

If you're town I'm wrong and dreadfully so, but that desire for more of your play is sincere, and maybe I should just be more straightforward rather than strictly interrogative.
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Post Post #951 (isolation #235) » Sun Jun 13, 2021 8:06 am

Post by Prism »

Maybe there is genuinely nothing else I can do and you're just not going to have the energy for it regardless, but yeah, I want you here more often and wish you could play, and I am not the only one.
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Post Post #952 (isolation #236) » Sun Jun 13, 2021 8:09 am

Post by Prism »

I'm going to dip for a bit, dunno how long, but I really want to take the time to give you more space to play how you want to if you feel up to it without facing any further vote pressure from me, even if you don't wind up using it.
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Post Post #955 (isolation #237) » Sun Jun 13, 2021 8:18 am

Post by Prism »

i'm the trash adc who keeps running it down trying to towerdive at level 2 and cannot help it b/c i am smol brain so please keep me alive & feed me thanks
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Post Post #965 (isolation #238) » Sun Jun 13, 2021 9:04 am

Post by Prism »

Infinity page 22 is hardtown imo

Hectic I go back and forth on but atm I leantown just because ceding me as town at the point he did was not advantageous.

HEM is actively scummy imo, should get to it on catchup.
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Post Post #969 (isolation #239) » Sun Jun 13, 2021 9:08 am

Post by Prism »

Not really. Have dedicated enough words to it the last several pages. We'll revisit when you finish.
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Post Post #986 (isolation #240) » Sun Jun 13, 2021 9:50 am

Post by Prism »

IIRC the reads were mixed, I more strongly remember it not being the right play to back off rather than the specific count. This assumption about spotting the correct play has bitten me before.

I'm out driving around right now so I can't really double check for you. I think my not being the dominant voice in the room is benefiting us greatly, so I'll happily stay out for a bit longer and revisit Hectic later in the night.
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Post Post #1004 (isolation #241) » Sun Jun 13, 2021 10:30 am

Post by Prism »

I have several thoughts on that last page that I will save for later.
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Post Post #1014 (isolation #242) » Sun Jun 13, 2021 11:44 am

Post by Prism »

I think this back and forth is TvT and I am all the more determined to force through HEM.

Skitter is right that she doesn't go after Hectic here. High chance he tunnels her after flip and town is likely to listen to IC Hectic

Hectic's reaction is very inline with what I saw when I pushed him in Chara's Folly and I don't share the same concern about the compromise voting that Skitter does. Not only do I agree with his comment that him backing off of Child was town, but I think the last page was the most town he has been all game.
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Post Post #1015 (isolation #243) » Sun Jun 13, 2021 11:46 am

Post by Prism »

I made some last minute tennis plans so I am unlikely to really be around later. I strongly, strongly want HEM even though I think any of Ydrasse/T3/Child could potentially flip scum.
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Post Post #1019 (isolation #244) » Sun Jun 13, 2021 11:59 am

Post by Prism »

Right, my reads are horrendous if you are town, and I was never a good choice to sheep.

That answers when you townread me but not really why. It also leaves a gap where my townread tanked when I started pushing Hectic.
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Post Post #1024 (isolation #245) » Sun Jun 13, 2021 12:07 pm

Post by Prism »

In post 1020, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 1013, Infinity 324 wrote:I'm uneasy about you sheeping me since I have so little confidence but ok
Would you rather follow me on a prism vote?

Because we need to flip someone, and if you are not voting with me, I feel like I should vote with you
I have actively stood in the way of multiple wagons, instead opting to try and force through my vote which will immediately tank my stock/credibility if wrong. I do not think this is conducive to fulfilling the scum win condition.
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Post Post #1028 (isolation #246) » Sun Jun 13, 2021 12:09 pm

Post by Prism »

...And then? You swap to the hardest TR/sheep me+Infinity after that.
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Post Post #1031 (isolation #247) » Sun Jun 13, 2021 12:11 pm

Post by Prism »

Likely will still be going tomorrow, see you then.
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Post Post #1034 (isolation #248) » Sun Jun 13, 2021 12:19 pm

Post by Prism »

In post 1032, Infinity 324 wrote:If monkey is scum he found the correct angle to approach this game really quickly, but maybe I'm overestimating the difficulty of realizing that the game is hard and going "idk the game is hard" believably.
I would suggest that we fed it to him on a silver platter and his experience with the opposite approach, which he originally took, was akin to running full speed into a brick wall.
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Post Post #1052 (isolation #249) » Sun Jun 13, 2021 1:58 pm

Post by Prism »

Seeing you name-drop ffery is hilarious because she would probably policystump me without hesitation lmao
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Post Post #1054 (isolation #250) » Sun Jun 13, 2021 2:12 pm

Post by Prism »

Actually she probably wouldn't give up a chance to legitimately try and read me but if you had her dog at gunpoint and said she had to win the game to save it I am 100% getting policystumped
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Post Post #1087 (isolation #251) » Sun Jun 13, 2021 5:31 pm

Post by Prism »

I am completely fucking dead from tennis but I'm also feeling myself so

Getting me to vote anyone besides HEM/Ydrasse will require 4 people to drag me by force, I cannot emphasize how much I oppose going outside. Everyone else but T3/Child are hardtown and both of those are townleans+not great IC picks.

Pacing the basement
Like Cassius in Rome...or in Kinshasa
"Just let me at him"
Like First Manassas, like Appomattox
I've got my teeth in it
I won't let go
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Post Post #1104 (isolation #252) » Sun Jun 13, 2021 6:13 pm

Post by Prism »

So settle for HEM.

This is the most confident, and I actually mean confident, I have been in a very long time.
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Post Post #1106 (isolation #253) » Sun Jun 13, 2021 6:14 pm

Post by Prism »

Maybe not until I actually revisit in the morning and my body isn't screaming at me

But it's how I felt all day and I suspect it's how I will feel tomorrow, too
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Post Post #1111 (isolation #254) » Mon Jun 14, 2021 12:25 am

Post by Prism »

This is probably the first time I have had real wholehearted faith in a scumread since Undertale 1 and I am ready to step on the proverbial spade, have the head smash into my face, lay on the ground unmoving for 48 hours, and finally reluctantly get up and try again as I have for 11 years now. I continue to wallow in my own mediocrity.
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Post Post #1113 (isolation #255) » Mon Jun 14, 2021 12:33 am

Post by Prism »

I legitimately believe this is flipping scum but years of experience of being Egregiously Fucking Wrong have left me rationally ready to step on stage, accept the L, smile, hold it up to the crowd, and finally try to make room for it among the ocean of others in the display case at my mother's house.
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Post Post #1116 (isolation #256) » Mon Jun 14, 2021 12:47 am

Post by Prism »

Well you're the new sheriff in that case and I get a dunce cap but it's back to bed for me for now
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Post Post #1122 (isolation #257) » Mon Jun 14, 2021 1:20 am

Post by Prism »

but it's u/hem r-right

:^(
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Post Post #1127 (isolation #258) » Mon Jun 14, 2021 1:24 am

Post by Prism »

I would say zero but there's actually a decent incentive as town

that said please flip scum oh god
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Post Post #1128 (isolation #259) » Mon Jun 14, 2021 1:25 am

Post by Prism »

I can't sleep HELP
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Post Post #1133 (isolation #260) » Mon Jun 14, 2021 1:26 am

Post by Prism »

literally there is so much town incentive to troll here i hate you

not actually but JESUS SOMEONE WAKE UP MURDERCAT
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Post Post #1135 (isolation #261) » Mon Jun 14, 2021 1:27 am

Post by Prism »

Legitimately I deserve getting trolled this hard
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Post Post #1157 (isolation #262) » Wed Jun 16, 2021 3:57 am

Post by Prism »

Infinity, Lukewarm-thank you for trusting me at the end of the day.

I am hungry and want the shut-out. I am sick and away from home right now, but let's end this today.
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Post Post #1158 (isolation #263) » Wed Jun 16, 2021 3:58 am

Post by Prism »

I have a lot of thoughts on slots in the wake of the flip but haven't reread since I've been traveling around; probably better that others go first anyway.
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Post Post #1161 (isolation #264) » Wed Jun 16, 2021 4:01 am

Post by Prism »

In post 1159, Ydrasse wrote:i’m bad at this game
Disagree, can we get some updated thoughts on players?
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Post Post #1172 (isolation #265) » Wed Jun 16, 2021 4:10 am

Post by Prism »

I like this Ydrasse a lot and would like to submit the adoption papers so that we, The Game, can Keep Her

this isn't an alignment statement but big ++ in quality of play/reads/effort thank u for putting in work this early
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Post Post #1185 (isolation #266) » Wed Jun 16, 2021 4:29 am

Post by Prism »

Bussing is actually super viable in this setup but HEM's posting was absurdly strong in its tone, as several players's reactions showed. While the wanting me to be town was not believable to me, it was a very clever turn and I was very concerned about being able to get that vote through. The game simply gets a lot easier by taking advantage of that strength and using one of us to burn several elims while the other finishes the game off, and we have a good chance of outright blanking the town.

Anyway that's a lot to read and I'm too sick for this shit and also I get to drive 3 hours so I can be sick ~at home~ so I'll be back later I love y'all
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Post Post #1195 (isolation #267) » Wed Jun 16, 2021 5:25 am

Post by Prism »

Skitter, when you get off of work do you mind tracking through more explicitly your thoughts from flip to your first post today?
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Post Post #1227 (isolation #268) » Wed Jun 16, 2021 9:07 am

Post by Prism »

I feel like a feral cat was locked in my throat overnight, I drove 3 hours back home in 102F with no air conditioning, and this is what I came back to.

To say I am about to blow a gasket is an understatement and I will be back tomorrow.
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Post Post #1233 (isolation #269) » Wed Jun 16, 2021 9:22 am

Post by Prism »

I didn't just push HEM, I actively blocked a wagon on Child MULTIPLE times, Hectic once, completely shut down Ydrasse/HEM on Infinity, and resisted multiple suggestions of Fidget/Skitter and T3.

Managing your personality and those of others is a fundamental part of mafia regardless of alignment. Go pull up the slot you replaced in Chara's Folly and read the rhetoric. It is the same. Meanwhile the single scumgame you saw of mine, Draft Mafia, I came in and derailed two dueling scum wagons with virtually no effort despite your hydra borderline scumclaiming inthread.

Mindbogglingly horrific read
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Post Post #1234 (isolation #270) » Wed Jun 16, 2021 9:22 am

Post by Prism »

Okay, sleep, if I post again someone yell at me
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Post Post #1241 (isolation #271) » Wed Jun 16, 2021 9:47 am

Post by Prism »

In post 1238, Noraa wrote:I mean if Prism actually isn't scum, which I mean is possible since I've been pretty certain prism was scum since I saw literally like her first two posts, then Lukewarm is just deep wolf
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Post Post #1242 (isolation #272) » Wed Jun 16, 2021 9:50 am

Post by Prism »

"I will never get more tilted than I was by madeline in Binding of Isaac, it's just not possible"

Noraa: "hold my root beer"
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Post Post #1243 (isolation #273) » Wed Jun 16, 2021 9:52 am

Post by Prism »

someone come to my house and break my phone so I stop f5ing
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Post Post #1247 (isolation #274) » Wed Jun 16, 2021 10:01 am

Post by Prism »

w/e it didn't help that I'm physically miserable atm, I can get over it and thanks for the lovely tree

Do wish you would read but we'll figure it out when I'm not dying

Thx for encouraging me to sleep infinity
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Post Post #1292 (isolation #275) » Wed Jun 16, 2021 1:28 pm

Post by Prism »

Okay, I'm feeling a bit better but am still not going to read everything atm

Basically Infinity/Lukewarm are locktown for me. I have a large townlean on Hectic. This leaves me with Skitter, Ydrasse, T3, and Noraa. I've been townleaning everyone but Ydrasse for awhile now, but her reaction to HEM upon hammer was quite good and the spark of motivation this morning wasn't bad imo. I'm most concerned about getting wrecked by the Fidget/Skitter slot, where both made some interesting-but-not-hardtown choices.

So that's my perspective on the game and I really want to work back over all 4, and part of working back over Skitter also means working back over Hectic. I'm overall pleased by the new energy in the game from Ydrasse's daystart to Skitter/Lukewarm rn to...Noraa tunneling me+Lukewarm, but I really don't want to just start haphazardly flipping slots.
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Post Post #1293 (isolation #276) » Wed Jun 16, 2021 1:30 pm

Post by Prism »

There is a nonzero chance I just outsource the Noraa/Ydrasse reads to Hectic, but I'd much rather do that as a last resort
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Post Post #1304 (isolation #277) » Wed Jun 16, 2021 5:00 pm

Post by Prism »

My instinct is that she is town based off of the connection she made in my rhetoric to Dandelion Wine's, even if she does not realize that it is a fundamentally NAI skill rather than something scum indicative.
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Post Post #1335 (isolation #278) » Thu Jun 17, 2021 12:17 am

Post by Prism »

I'm still probably down for the count today but maybe I can push myself a bit further, tbd.

Noraa I think you are making a categorical mistake with reading me, both with the scumread and the townread. Tonereading me tends to be a waste of time outside of some very, very niche situations. My reads+progressions are much better indicators.

I don't want to say my tone is perfect, as I am sure there are blind spots, but I have spent an absolutely insane amount of time standardizing it and faking basic emotions is trivial for players with backgrounds in chat mafia.

I'm town because I played incredibly hard defense against several wagons in order to get HEM voted, and HEM was a strong scum player who was much more useful to the team alive,
especially
when he kicked into overdrive after my callout. I am not really town because I got mad, though I did get mad because I am town.
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Post Post #1336 (isolation #279) » Thu Jun 17, 2021 12:19 am

Post by Prism »

I don't really think there's a consistent townblock and really hate the concept of townblocking in general even if it could be applied here.

Curious as to where the Mario simp is/what he's thinking atm
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Post Post #1337 (isolation #280) » Thu Jun 17, 2021 12:27 am

Post by Prism »

394 is... absolutely within Ydrasse's range so yikes
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Post Post #1338 (isolation #281) » Thu Jun 17, 2021 12:34 am

Post by Prism »

Okay, reading more about the Super comparison, which is vaguely ironic to me as Super has extremely strong scumtone as well, I can spend all day critiquing Noraa's methodology and try to get her to look at something besides tone and bad comparisons to other players, but that's probably going to be a waste of time.

I'm going to blanket disagree and say stop relying entirely on tone, especially against players who specialize in it, and call it there.
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Post Post #1340 (isolation #282) » Thu Jun 17, 2021 1:27 am

Post by Prism »

can u not, pls retract if so
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Post Post #1342 (isolation #283) » Thu Jun 17, 2021 1:33 am

Post by Prism »

literally I was starting to townlean u now WHO WILL CARRY ME hectic has skinny arms and he sucks
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Post Post #1345 (isolation #284) » Thu Jun 17, 2021 1:42 am

Post by Prism »

welp

guess im tryharding sooner than later, ain't no rest for the wicked, time to make some theraflu and reread this shit from scratch
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Post Post #1348 (isolation #285) » Thu Jun 17, 2021 2:01 am

Post by Prism »

ok nope I'm a liar F sorry back to sleep

infinity is now my surrogate
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Post Post #1373 (isolation #286) » Thu Jun 17, 2021 4:34 am

Post by Prism »

Skitter is my like, spitball gun to head top pick here but I have not wanted to say that without actually going back and reading just because it's such a spitball

And also I am not in a position to trust my own spitballs atm
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Post Post #1374 (isolation #287) » Thu Jun 17, 2021 4:35 am

Post by Prism »

I do oppose hammering but I am not queen of the town and we can't exactly wait a week for me to recover
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Post Post #1381 (isolation #288) » Thu Jun 17, 2021 4:44 am

Post by Prism »

Now is the perfect time for my classic yolo but I'm not gonna do it

If she's scum I can READ and hammer her fair and square
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Post Post #1386 (isolation #289) » Thu Jun 17, 2021 4:59 am

Post by Prism »

There is literally one scum what do you mean your wagon is going through too easy lmao

Nakata is also coming off extremely town in their analysis here.
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Post Post #1391 (isolation #290) » Thu Jun 17, 2021 5:06 am

Post by Prism »

1390 is basically my concerns with the slot that I haven't wanted to post w/o going back over

okay Nakata is my new surrogate sorry Infinity
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Post Post #1393 (isolation #291) » Thu Jun 17, 2021 5:12 am

Post by Prism »

Naw I get it but I am sick and do owe it to Skitter+the rest of the game not to YOLO

I agree with a lot of your points though and appreciate the rep in
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Post Post #1428 (isolation #292) » Thu Jun 17, 2021 9:24 am

Post by Prism »

I think skitter's motivation w/ the Hectic push would be a bit different than portrayed but we shall see
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Post Post #1435 (isolation #293) » Thu Jun 17, 2021 9:32 am

Post by Prism »

I don't really want to teach you sample size/stats right now sorry
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Post Post #1440 (isolation #294) » Sat Jun 19, 2021 10:19 am

Post by Prism »

Sorry to everyone who wanted fast night. I wanted time to recover, and hopefully the slowdown, wanted or not, was helpful to others who probably needed it.

I'm at about ~70% and will try to start reading tonight, but it may have to wait until tomorrow.
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Post Post #1441 (isolation #295) » Sat Jun 19, 2021 10:22 am

Post by Prism »

In post 1428, Prism wrote:I think skitter's motivation w/ the Hectic push would be a bit different than portrayed but we shall see
In post 1429, skitter30 wrote:Idk what you're trying to say
This was about what a hypothetical scum-Skitter's motivation would have been in pushing the slot. I don't think it would have been as straightforward as just trying to get Hectic through, but this is now an obvious counterfactual.
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Post Post #1446 (isolation #296) » Sat Jun 19, 2021 1:04 pm

Post by Prism »

I just had a long drive really reflecting and thinking on the events of the game, which I haven't been able to do since I've been bedridden.

I strongly feel this game ends with a Child/Noraa flip.

The short of it is:
-HEM never actually voting that slot despite it being his best chance at a counterwagon. There's further depth to this but it's clear imo that he wasn't confident in his ability to win the game solo.
-Noraa's claims about how much she read the game beforehand have been inconsistent and perhaps even contradictory (She was sure her slot was scum, but also sure my slot was scum, claims to have read minimally)
-Ydrasse simply doesn't come out that strong yesterday playing solo, even with the time to regroup. Satoru is not at all waiting to feel out the day but 100% just jumps in, which requires a strict plan over the flexibility that most scum opt for in this case
-T3 I'm less sold on but I suspect he hasn't developed the depth & confidence to be able to hammer a claimed townlean over something more lukewarm (hue) or scumleaning
-Hectic perhaps got scared of the result of a Child town flip but I doubt it, he also recognizes that the HEM slot is only going to pick up steam
-Infinity/Lukewarm are still hardtown

There's a lot I want to doublecheck here when my processing ability is back: Noraa meta, T3 meta, rework over Hectic, Ydrasse meta, in basically that order
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Post Post #1448 (isolation #297) » Sat Jun 19, 2021 1:16 pm

Post by Prism »

Noraa, do you mind chonologically explaining what reads in the game you developed and how much you had read at the point you developed them?

On a separate note, drawing a comparison to Dandelion was decent but there is a crucial difference between this game and Tenet, namely that I successfully used that persuasion to get scum flipped on Day 1. You seem to have gone back in ISO and focused solely on why I am scum, and painted those interactions about alternative votes accordingly, rather than working forward. It is very difficult for me to believe that even in ISO it is unclear how relentless I was in shoving an HEM vote, and I can only think you are working in reverse. While others correctly pointed out that in context these "alternatives" were very grudging, the strength of the assertion that I wanted people to go elsewhere is not something I think can come from working forwards.

Finally, a point I missed above with Child was the way Child engaged with me. Child was incredibly attentive to my posts; when I suggested it was time for more breadth they immediately reacted and gave a full wall. When they ignored my questions and instead continued to push me with a one liner, and I hardchallenged them, they immediately understood exactly what I meant and openly took up my suggestions for alternative points on me. They noticed I was, in their words, incredibly rude to Infinity but did not step in, defend her, or assert that others should say more in the game. This makes me suspect several aspects of this were strategic, and that they feared not just that I would get upset but that I would turn an aggressive eye toward them.
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Post Post #1449 (isolation #298) » Sat Jun 19, 2021 1:22 pm

Post by Prism »

All of this is drawn from memory, so I will have to doublecheck much of it when I am back to 100%, and I appreciate the patience in the meantime for dealing with any incoherency or inaccuracy as a result.
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Post Post #1453 (isolation #299) » Sat Jun 19, 2021 2:37 pm

Post by Prism »

Skitter I know I can only say so much about Hectic without rereading but the Nekata slot is so town I wanna scream
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Post Post #1456 (isolation #300) » Sat Jun 19, 2021 2:40 pm

Post by Prism »

The most town thing Child did all game was unvote me after I ripped them a new one, and they completely disappeared at the end of day

The reads wall was also okay iirc but I had to explicitly fish it out of them and the rest was all incredibly defensive and scared play
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Post Post #1458 (isolation #301) » Sat Jun 19, 2021 2:41 pm

Post by Prism »

In post 1454, skitter30 wrote:Idk why scum-noraa doesnt scumread me yesterday
this is outright nonsensical imo, be more explicit with why this is required or even strong
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Post Post #1461 (isolation #302) » Sat Jun 19, 2021 2:44 pm

Post by Prism »

Like I am someone who prides themselves on having a keen eye for what the best scumplay is and that isn't even average replacing into that slot and scumreading you is actively terrible

On the other hand she has meta that leans into scumreading two locktown slots+immediately townread her friends with zero trouble or hesitation despite claiming to have not read the game at all. But also her slot was scum. And when it wasn't I was obviously scum instead. Hadn't read the game though.
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Post Post #1462 (isolation #303) » Sat Jun 19, 2021 2:45 pm

Post by Prism »

In post 1460, skitter30 wrote:
In post 1457, Infinity 324 wrote:
In post 1454, skitter30 wrote:Idk why scum-noraa doesnt scumread me yesterday
Doesn't scum!noraa want to keep you alive to mislim you later?

Will read tomorrow
I was inevitable yesterday, i dont see why she wouldnt join the bandwagon
this...is exactly why she doesn't join the bandwagon holy moly wyd
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Post Post #1470 (isolation #304) » Sat Jun 19, 2021 3:13 pm

Post by Prism »

In post 1467, Noraa wrote:I have limited time but I will address these.
I don't know what exactly the circumstances were but I don't think it's always a great idea to be voting a large counter wagon. Yes its the goal but it's pretty hard to pull off without getting questioned later on for it. Another thing is that if the scum team was HEM and child, HEM is imo the more valuable player. I dont really want to go in depth into this so we'll leave it here.
It's not always a great idea, but while HEM was more valuable it is also obvious that with me on his back, never getting off, and even suggesting that scumteam at one point, why he would not be eager to try and carry solo.
In post 1467, Noraa wrote:You have things mixed up.
I was pretty certain Child was scum prior to repping in. I had read only the beginning of day 2 at that point.
The reason was because the rest of the game was on similar wavelengths and the overall vibe pointed to child scum. After repping in, that thought went down the drain and I started thinking. I read the beginning of the first day and immediately felt heavy tenet vibes from you. That SR was so vivid I felt like I was reliving Tenet in your posts. I remember there was one of your posts that struck me the most.
Mostly importantly, Child did not post at all Day 2. Second, I do not have it mixed up and have it exactly right in my head chronologically with what you're describing. Lastly, I would love these quotes from the beginning of the first day, because the only time I was manipulative early was in getting Ydrasse to vote. I do not become so again until significantly later in the day.

The reasoning on why I am town is mostly correct but my fear is that this trajectory was essentially planned yesterday, as even when given context you did not see it yesterday. I am not thrilled with the suggestion of Lukewarm, who has been blatantly town all game for reasons meta (scumgames have him way too nervous/not as fleshed out with reads in realtime), mechanical (crucial swingvoter w/ HEM), & qualitative (multiple reads have been insanely organic for a scum so inexperienced, have quoted several in my ISO.) You really can't ask for something more solid than we've gotten with this slot IMO.

Don't think there's much else I want/need to respond to there other than saying I was not in Tenet.

I'll revisit the Hectic slot for both you and Skitter.
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Post Post #1474 (isolation #305) » Sat Jun 19, 2021 3:17 pm

Post by Prism »

I'm actually going to punt rereading until tomorrow, which I know is probably frustrating given I just said it was time to reread Hectic for like the third time+have been more than happy to be accusatory in the meantime.

Simultaneously I have a bad habit of pushing myself too far and I don't want to test it right when I'm finally getting better physically. I'm close to 100% again and want to make sure I actually get there.
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Post Post #1507 (isolation #306) » Sat Jun 19, 2021 4:56 pm

Post by Prism »

I also want to note that this setup mechanically incentivizes bussing. It's the quality of play and tone that HEM brought to the table that makes bussing dumb. This is one of the most bus-friendly setups you will ever find on account of being completely vanilla and with zero scum nightkills before endgame.
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Post Post #1511 (isolation #307) » Sun Jun 20, 2021 3:28 am

Post by Prism »

I'm back in business and I finished reading Hectic.

I'm not voting that slot without a silver bullet. This will take some time to put together since the reasoning is kind of a mix of my own thoughts from ISO+rejecting a lot of the reasoning given by others.
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Post Post #1513 (isolation #308) » Sun Jun 20, 2021 4:29 am

Post by Prism »

Spoiler: Bulk of quotes about Hectic's Child push
In post 973, skitter30 wrote:
In post 888, Hectic wrote:Fairy Child was very comprehensive and thorough in their responses to both Prism and I, but I find it scum-indicative to have that kind WIM to defend yourself but not put nearly as much effort into discussing other things that doesn't involve defending themselves (earlier in the game)

It's a more defensive mindset which can come from town but also comes from scum a whole lot of the time
like ?
feels like he's making up reasons to push them, fairy's iso is pretty townie esp. for someoen without a lot of recent experience
In post 998, skitter30 wrote:
In post 993, Hectic wrote:Why do I need to just force a push through as scum here if both wagons are town? There's no stakes here for me
i don't know
but the fact that you keep juggling back and forth kinda makes me think that you don't particularly care which ones gets flipped

and still asking a scumread to help flip another scumread is bizarre to me
i also kind think child of faiies is townie and that you're looking for reasons to scumread her
In post 980, Hectic wrote:On "making up reads", I actively try and force myself to have scumreads as town and don't settle only having town and nullreads. That involves searching for motivation and digging deeper into everyone's ISOs, it has mixed results. I was kinda in that town and null only reads place for a while but then found stuff Fairy Child could be doing as scum, and the responses could have a scum-motivation.
also given that you're apparently doing this i still don't fully get why you're cycling between reads anyways? lik why was she your preferred flip given that you were looking for scumreads and found her?
idk this feels weird
In post 1008, skitter30 wrote:also hectic doesn't stick with child because it's not a popular wagon and it seems liek there's much more appetite for monkey?
In post 1151, skitter30 wrote:
In post 1144, Ydrasse wrote:who’s the everyone that’s townreading him? why’s child so townie?
Uh nobody other than luke would entertain a hectic vote?

Fairy jas a level of nuance to their posting that i think is unlikely to be found in the iso of newish-scum
(And i also thing hectic should recognize that, esp since he:
A) understanda they would be new-ish scum
B) literally admitted to going fishing for scumreads and that he didnt inherently scumread them until he tried to find a scumread)
In post 1251, skitter30 wrote:i also think that it's even *more* sus that he flipflopped between child and hem given that hem flipped scum, and that asking hem (who he scumread) to join him on child looks incredibly partner-indicative. it's baffling to me why town would ask a scumread to join them on another scumread when it shouldn't matter to them which one gets flipped, but it makes an insane amount of sense for scum (hectic) to ask their partner (hem) to vote flipbait town when the partner is the biggest other viable wagon.

i also think the timing of flipping off of child onto hem is also sus given that it was obvious a child wagon wasn't happening at that point
I think it's easiest if I distill these down to a few salient points and tackle them one by one.

1. Child was town, not scummy, for the reasons Hectic provided and he should know it


I hard disagree with this. I noticed the exact same behaviors as Hectic: Child was very intentional and careful in their posting/voting, and while you disagree that the slot was defensive, a simple revisit of the beginning shows where our concern came from. We both agree that there was some good nuance behind their extended reads: Our issue was that these posts seemed crafted to be nuanced but as narrow and as non-committal as possible, making them well within range for a more careful scum player.

At a minimum, I picked up on the exact same behaviors as Hectic did and I don't consider this scum-indicative for Hectic.


2. Hectic was actively looking for a scumread and found one with Child


I don't think this is scummy. Hectic has said it repeatedly, but he gets uncomfortable without a scumread and a bunch of townreads. Going back and combing over the ISO of a likely candidate to find something isn't scummy, it's just good play. He has not tried to hide this process or progression at all, and I think this transparency-as opposed to planning something more organic looking/starting out with a scumlean on Child-is +town if anything.


3. Hectic asking a scumread (HEM) to join them on another scumread (Child) is scummy


I'm sorry but this is a basic and very fundamental play in mafia that good town do all the time. It lets you test reads, it makes getting a vote on a scumread more likely, it helps you test for teams. There's literally nothing to see here. I can go back and meta Hectic to see if he specifically only does it as scum but this is a game fundamental and doing this would be a waste of time IMO. The real question here is why HEM didn't join on the vote.


4. The Hectic vote on HEM wasn't town as the Child wagon wasn't likely to go through


This is false and I was terrified that a Child vote would go through over HEM. This vote happens in 949. The voting before this is Hectic/T3 on Child, me on HEM, Lukewarm on me, with the rest not voting.

Crucial to this is that
T3 has just switched off HEM and voted Child in 927 in reply to a wall of quotes from Ydrasse defending HEM
.

At this time, the most recently expressed reads are:

-Ydrasse has been shoving Child scum and harddefending HEM as town
-Lukewarm was actually just voting Child but switched to wanting Prism/Hectic, neither of which was likely to go through (eg. Child vote is likely). Middling reaction to HEM.
-HEM is not voting
-Skitter has replaced in but
not yet given any content at all, instead just posting that she's worried about deadline
ie. no push on Hectic yet, no townread on Child
-Infinity is waffling on HEM but recently unvoted him and I don't feel like tracking down her Child feelings atm

The Child vote was extremely likely to go through w/o Hectic swapping, as I and arguably Infinity were the only ones scumreading HEM while others actively defended and townread it. This wagon was 100% not dead and Hectic's voteswitch is what killed the Child wagon, it was not at all reactionary to the wagon dying.
Spoiler: Miscellaneous response I typed up
In post 971, skitter30 wrote:ok so i think that hectic's reads are somewhat political:
if he's scum, there's a few different people in this game that he pretty much has to townread (ydrasse and infinity, maybe lukewarm but i don't have enough context on him so not sure)
Fidget is actually in here, but is noticeably null for the most part all day despite Hectic spending a lot of time on that slot. It is unclear to me why they have to be political, as opposed to natural. Ydrasse wasn't ever bad and Infinity was pretty town for most of the game.
In post 971, skitter30 wrote:i don't think that he wanted to scumread prism but upon prism scumreading him, he felt he needed to push back and scumread prism in turn. i think that prism seemed to have backed off a bit right before hectic townread her / dropped the scumread - i think he didn't actually want to push her and if she wasn't going to actively push him he felt safe sticking her back in a townbin and dropping the fight (which is indeed what seemed to have killed the momentum of the 1v1).
This was my concern around the time he OMGUSed and originally backed down a bit without removing his vote. Removing it much later is arguably null out of desire to avoid stumping me but there is zero chance Hectic keeps scumreading me as town when he came back from extended V/LA, and I knew it, even if Hectic did not.
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Post Post #1514 (isolation #309) » Sun Jun 20, 2021 4:31 am

Post by Prism »

In post 1512, Noraa wrote:If I'm not scum, who's scum?
Nows a good time to start thinking about that.
Seeing the gamestate, I will much rather die today than tomorrow. If tomorrow, no one can settle on a lim, lim the most townread townie because that probably drags the game out of lylo by getting rid of one of the flagged people. Scum will have 3 by then and just need to blow them up. Get rid of one of them and scum can't win and will have to wait another night which is pretty bad for scum since the dead townie is still there technically and probably means that scum has to flag someone that is a mislim option which is risky. My guess is that the people that are flagged are probably Lukewarm, Prism, and Infinity by tomorrow. I still think Lukewarm is scum in the event that Hectic isn't but if Lukewarm is scum, none of this matters because it's already a scum win. One of those will be flagged tonight so they may stray from the original plan seeing this post. Idk but my speculation tells me that the best bet for elimming UTR is infinity if it ever comes to that. Aside from that, I don't know what to say. Like I'm not scum here but I'd rather die today than tomorrow.
Great, you can start!

Please make the case for why either of Lukewarm/Hectic are scum. Feel free to tackle either individually rather than both.
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Post Post #1515 (isolation #310) » Sun Jun 20, 2021 4:35 am

Post by Prism »

While I didn't feel this was important enough to include in the wall response, which is what you should focus on, I also want to note Skitter that I find it very irrational and unfair that you pushed Hectic for being "indifferent" to which of Child/HEM flipped and then later pushed these same interactions as making him more likely scum with HEM.
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Post Post #1516 (isolation #311) » Sun Jun 20, 2021 4:38 am

Post by Prism »

Hectic, what do you think about the Ydrasse slot? I think Nakata is hardtown in and of himself even if I'd have a hard time verbalizing a lot of it, but what really sealed the deal for me while driving the other day was that Ydrasse simply wouldn't be able to muster the optimism and effort at the start of Day 2 solo. Am I right here?
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Post Post #1517 (isolation #312) » Sun Jun 20, 2021 4:49 am

Post by Prism »

Okay I have extra work I want to do but the site is lagging and making it annoying so I'll be back later
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Post Post #1524 (isolation #313) » Sun Jun 20, 2021 5:14 am

Post by Prism »

Yeah I'm on the same page. I'm worried about T3's sparse activity, I concur with Lukewarm that he's unlikely to really have the confidence to try and solocarry here but it's possible he got scared into bussing. I think not voting me is less indicative, sometimes you choose to white knight a town and get burned by that commitment later.

...but I think the Child/Noraa slot is a lot more straightforward and my only real fear is the replaceout.
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Post Post #1529 (isolation #314) » Sun Jun 20, 2021 5:24 am

Post by Prism »

In post 1525, Hectic wrote:What's indicative about the replace-out?
Just solo-scum replacing out period is kinda eh, would be the same thing w/ Ydrasse, but it happens so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Post Post #1541 (isolation #315) » Sun Jun 20, 2021 7:32 am

Post by Prism »

I would be more than happy to vote them if you lay out some persuasive & specific reasoning for them.
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Post Post #1546 (isolation #316) » Sun Jun 20, 2021 7:54 am

Post by Prism »

1543 makes me wanna scream in 2 da void 1545 heals the soul
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Post Post #1547 (isolation #317) » Sun Jun 20, 2021 7:55 am

Post by Prism »

I think #4 specifically in my wall is really, really worth combing over
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Post Post #1551 (isolation #318) » Sun Jun 20, 2021 8:13 am

Post by Prism »

I am for their interactions with HEM. The read around me is sketchy but Infinity voting is what actually sealed HEM. Infinity respects this table way, way too much to try to shut out all of us on her own.

P-Edit: Thanks Noraa, about to take a nap but will read later!
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Post Post #1553 (isolation #319) » Sun Jun 20, 2021 8:14 am

Post by Prism »

Like there's T3, who may or may not have a ton of confidence in his scumgame and hesitates to bus in general, and then there's Infinity saying "Yeah I can totally swing 3 miselims single-handedly against Skitter, Prism, Hectic, and Ydrasse" and I find that soooooo unlikely
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Post Post #1560 (isolation #320) » Sun Jun 20, 2021 8:23 am

Post by Prism »

I have so much to say but it is time to SLEEP
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Post Post #1569 (isolation #321) » Sun Jun 20, 2021 10:47 am

Post by Prism »

Yo, T3, do you mind playing a bit of this game at all?
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Post Post #1570 (isolation #322) » Sun Jun 20, 2021 1:17 pm

Post by Prism »

I am getting very frustrated by T3 playing every game but this one and am starting to consider policying him.
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Post Post #1571 (isolation #323) » Sun Jun 20, 2021 1:17 pm

Post by Prism »

It has not just been today.
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Post Post #1580 (isolation #324) » Sun Jun 20, 2021 2:45 pm

Post by Prism »

In post 1575, T3 wrote:Noraa, you seriously think Lukewarm scum will very visibly tr me the entire game andthen do a 180 tomorrow? Nah.
VOTE: noraa
While I agree this thought process is implausible, can you please speak about where you're at on other slots? Perhaps a sentence or two each?
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Post Post #1586 (isolation #325) » Sun Jun 20, 2021 3:15 pm

Post by Prism »

VOTE: Noraa
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Post Post #1601 (isolation #326) » Sun Jun 20, 2021 3:46 pm

Post by Prism »

Image

Will have further comments tomorrow
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Post Post #1630 (isolation #327) » Sun Jun 20, 2021 4:19 pm

Post by Prism »

I've got some time so I'll type up some responses now and maybe post my general comments later.
In post 1595, Noraa wrote:That self vote was bad in some ways. It was a gambit that I decided to pull. It obviously didn't work out but I had confidence that no one would hammer me except Prism. I took the risk of Prism hammering me which lead to ... well ... prism hammering me. I pull this gambit occasionally. It doesn't always work but sometimes it works and gets me much further into the game. Was worth a shot given I needed T3 on my side to win this!
Unfortunately I was never going to vote outside of you today; I was very confident that ended the game from the minute I reread Child. I wanted more from T3 as insurance for Elo but the minute you presented me with hammer I was always going to take it. I wasn't persuaded at all persuaded by the the wall I requested but was too distracted to respond to it which I felt kind of bad about.
In post 1596, humaneatingmonkey wrote:Fuck me. An impossible game in an impossible slot.

this game is brutal for scum.
if town can post after death, scum should be able to post after death
I think the frustration w/ not being able to cheer on or assist a partner is valid but this setup really favors scum mechanically IMO. 2v7 mountainous is scumsided, and while the stumps/chance of gaining an extra elim from voting out someone primed doesn't really outweigh the value of nightkill info. Just for an example of how this plays out, I alluded to this Day 2/3 but bussing convincingly in this game is outright gamewinning, while in a normal game you'd have to explain still being alive. I think that for a mix of irl circumstances and experience reasons the original scumteam was a bit out of depth-town had a seriously All-Star cast. This left impossibly little room for error on either of your ends.
In post 1596, humaneatingmonkey wrote:Noraa, i wanted to set up skitter → hectic → ydrasse for my scum partner, but i never had the chance to verbalize it so it's sad (because child wasn't communicating with me). that's why i didn't actually try to contribute to a counterwagon, so that they can't read into it.
This was actually a very good plan IMO.
In post 1596, humaneatingmonkey wrote:i could have pointed out my bussing meta on my scum partner so they can use it as a narrative. alas.
I actually had this meta handy as I had spectated the Newbie where you bussed orctin. Figuring out how to incorporate it was tough, but when I realized that your position was too precarious to actually do it, this provided a really useful tip.
In post 1596, humaneatingmonkey wrote:i think i would have had a better chance at deepwolfing myself if i had the opportunity to start the game from the beginning. alas.
100% agree.
In post 1596, humaneatingmonkey wrote:GG Town. Not my best performance. Prism, you should teach me how to play this game.
You really, really kicked it up a notch after I directly challenged you. I think townreading me/Infinity was a mistake but I was deeply, deeply worried I would not be able to force you through and I was a bit underhanded in trying to intentionally stall out other wagons to make it happen. While I had an instinct you were a player with strong AtE, I got very lucky with the "promise" reference being such a clear+easy demonstration as to kill the townreads on the spot. Without it selling others would have been incredibly difficult.
In post 1599, humaneatingmonkey wrote:Also, everyone complimenting my scum game and saying how I'm valuable feels so sarcastic because I failed to save myself :lol: :lol: :lol:
See above, you made that way, way much harder than it should have been even if you came up short in the end.
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Post Post #1634 (isolation #328) » Sun Jun 20, 2021 4:27 pm

Post by Prism »

In post 1614, Infinity 324 wrote:All my reasons to TR prism were great and I didn't once doubt my read.
You absolutely saved me this game on at least two occasions.
In post 1607, Ydrasse wrote:sorry for repping out, sorry for not being the Best tm this game, was fun to spectate the end of it. gg everyone!
It was fun having you, and your read on Child was quite good and my read on you quite bad. Thanks for putting up with it as long as you did.
In post 1605, Hectic wrote:Well, what'd you know
classic coattail rider smh (jk ty 4 all the help+dealing w/ me early game)
In post 1604, skitter30 wrote:Gg everyone
My reads wsre horrible, thanks for the carry

Thanks mc for modding
It happens, and your vote out Day 2 was kind of my fault. I was sick but that was a really bad/lazy vote and I should have fought it rather than lazily said "eh yeah sure why think/read at all". Later I literally solved the game
while driving around having not read for a week
, so that vote was inexcusable IMO
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Post Post #1635 (isolation #329) » Sun Jun 20, 2021 4:29 pm

Post by Prism »

In post 1633, humaneatingmonkey wrote:
In post 1630, Prism wrote:I think townreading me/Infinity was a mistake
Townreading you two was the reason I got the 180. Everyone mindmelded with me all in one swoop. But what killed me was the declaration that I wasn't going to vote until you two did. That was overkill, and I shouldn't have done that.

Also, I replaced at a time where I 100% didn't have the time to save myself. I think if I was 100% prepared to be in this situation, I could. But I didn't read the game prior to replacing in :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
Mmmmm I believe it started well before with people like Ydrasse/T3, but it really depended on the aim. I took it as an attempt to sway me/Infinity, with an adapative pivot later to the "Prism tunneling" angle when that didn't work. I think it was a valid strategy that got what you wanted if you were fine with me scumreading you, and like I said I had to be a bit underhanded with intentionally stalling out wagons elsewhere to get it.
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Post Post #1641 (isolation #330) » Sun Jun 20, 2021 4:43 pm

Post by Prism »

Okay, now for some general comments:

We got lucky in a few ways. First, Johnny wasn't around to hammer me. Second, I got a one-in-a-million with that easy reference for the strength of HEM's scum appeals. I think this game was sealed by a combination of Hectic taking notice of those findings, Infinity somehow maintaining that scumread on HEM when I was sure everyone else would flip+finally revoting with me, and Lukewarm for following Infinity's vote. From there, I think the interactions and amount of obvious town were just way too strong to overcome.

Getting sick Day 2 really sucked, I didn't revisit at all and just kind of threw up my hands and said "Yeah sure let's go Skitter I like that quote about HEM TMI that Hectic found". The second I recovered and really chewed on the game it all became pretty straightforward, and while I had the help of skitter's flip by that point I can't help but be dissatisfied for missing the shutout.

I think Noraa replaced into a tough situation and did her best+tried some interesting things, but I want to be more constructive with my feedback. As I brought up, I was very concerned that the timeline behind the reads didn't match up to the point I felt it was a scumclaim. I also strongly doubted the Lukewarm scumread and really felt it was going for the hail mary "too dumb 4 scum" angle. At some point a hail mary becomes tempting but I think playing a calmer game, townreading who you need to, and then seeing what happens after T3 flip would have netted better results. Something like the "vote me today" gambit was about what I expected in light of the Lukewarm push, and while T3's latest content still wasn't fleshed out it really didn't drive it to selfvote territory and I felt very comfortable calling the selfvote bluff because of it.

Lukewarm played extremely well start to finish; great reads all around and even when he scumread me I understood why and didn't blame him. I don't have a lot of constructive criticism here other than to illuminate for him why he was so townread. First, you had only one scumgame on record where you were a lot stiffer and not as loose/original with your reads. Second, though, the conversation I describe here was the moment you became locktown to me. Looping back and continuing to investigate a conversation after it's ended and a scum-Lukewarm would be sitting comfortably bled town. Faking this with so little experience, and especially in contrast with the one sample we had from you, would have been insane. This isn't to say scum-you is going to be bad or can't fake this stuff, but this would have been one of the fastest+most complete improvements in a single game I had ever seen.
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Post Post #1642 (isolation #331) » Sun Jun 20, 2021 4:46 pm

Post by Prism »

Finally, thank you Murdercat for modding and the comments! I also apologize for referencing a bit of the "posting elsewhere" with other games, which isn't a favorite of mine either and I use very grudgingly.
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Post Post #1646 (isolation #332) » Sun Jun 20, 2021 4:50 pm

Post by Prism »

In post 1643, Satoru Nakata wrote:Secondly, Nakata thinks that friend Noraa misplayed here a bit, and that the main lesson she should consider is not rocking the boat when solo-scumming in a tricky list. Nakata is also not very good at scum but thinks this is more due to poor execution on his part than lack of understanding of what should be done. Nakata thinks that the way for Noraa to win was probably to go after Nakata today for being wrong on skitter30, and then to go for either T3 or Hectic tomorrow depending on skitter30’s paranoia there. Nakata thinks it was probably a mistake to try to go after the widely townread friend Lukewarm which stood out in a bad way from the rest of the list. Solo scum want to blend in if possible.
In general I really agree with this, though I'm a bit torn as to how I expect pushing Nakata to have gone. I'm a bit biased by how obviously town they were to me but I think playing for SN/T3 into a flexible Day 4 posed a better chance.
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Post Post #1657 (isolation #333) » Sun Jun 20, 2021 5:03 pm

Post by Prism »

In post 1647, humaneatingmonkey wrote:Prism, how do you read slots? I genuinely want your help on this because I'm a charismatic bulldozer as town, but it's the same style that scum take advantage of because they can easily hide under me. my reads are based on gut and determining if the process/POV is genuine/viable. I think my methods are a bit outdated or I still don't understand some aspects of reading.
While I get why you might want my help I really think I got lucky this game more than anything else. I really try and tailor how I read the person to the type of player they are, but I have my own biases.

My biggest double-edged sword is that I tend to place a lot more emphasis on progressions-what reads people have, whether it makes sense for
that player
to believe them, and how they evolve naturally or unnaturally-than other players, as opposed to something like tone. That works in my favor sometimes: I suspected you were "a player with strong scum AtE", had this confirmed, and was more skeptical with that in mind. I got really lucky with finding the specific record, which helped a ton, but the reads on me/Infinity I just didn't think lined up with what you should have been feeling/thinking given your previous statements and those sealed it for me. I figuratively spat in your eye only to have you claim to be glad I seemed town so I was like ?_?

Other times my tailoring got a lot more specific. Knowing that Infinity wouldn't have the
confidence
to go solo against the rest of the table by bussing, even if she
probably could
, is one example.

Finally, my predisposition for reads/progressions really bit me & the town on Ydrasse. I had to get my head out of my ass and focus on, ugh,
AtE and tone
. I had to sit down and think about her position, whether she comes out that motivated Day 2, and the answer was obviously no. She's a smart & tough old gal but not a robot.
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Post Post #1659 (isolation #334) » Sun Jun 20, 2021 5:05 pm

Post by Prism »

Also if it helps Lukewarm most of the players in this game can vouch that I spend weeks grilling people over why I'm a universal townread because I get so confused by it...and I've been playing for literally 11 years.
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Post Post #1661 (isolation #335) » Sun Jun 20, 2021 5:08 pm

Post by Prism »

Literally this game is a one-off normally I become a UTR and lead the town right off the cliff into 2+ miselims in a row so please do not take advice from me after one game
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Post Post #1662 (isolation #336) » Sun Jun 20, 2021 5:15 pm

Post by Prism »

SN's main is actually pretty straightforward I think?
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Post Post #1680 (isolation #337) » Sun Jun 20, 2021 6:38 pm

Post by Prism »

I would really focus on the circumstances surrounding the self-vote, for example it being a bit out of line with what T3 gave imo, than any overly general statements. It's a bad thing to do as either alignment, though.
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Post Post #1685 (isolation #338) » Mon Jun 21, 2021 4:41 am

Post by Prism »

I think that was one suggestion of HEM's, but the emphasis is more on making sure that you craft a very convincing narrative around it, which has multiple paths. It seems you tried to do this with the game is solved angle, which I have already provided specific feedback on.
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Post Post #1688 (isolation #339) » Tue Jun 22, 2021 3:32 pm

Post by Prism »

Time for the mafia PT release?
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