Mafia 86 - mafia.gif - Game Over!

[Jebus]

Vote: Tarhalindur

Because I'm a day-cop and he came up positive as scum.

[Jebus]

Unvote, Vote Jebus

Acting like ABR is not a funny thing.

Unvote
Vote: armlx

It's not ABR, it's Xotxm >:o

[Jebus]

Unvote

Time to stop the randomness stuff now?

[Jebus]

I'm not asking permission to stop, I'm asking for it to stop. And I could stop it on my own pretty well.

I've a good suggestion: bandwagon to 2-3 votes from a lynch and see where that gets us. I think ooba is a good place to start.

Vote: ooba

[Jebus]

Well, my computer's fixed and I'm back for now. I'ma read up a bit.

For now, though, anyone have any questions for me to look into?

[Jebus]

Well, my computer's fixed and I'm back for now. I'ma read up a bit.

For now, though, anyone have any questions for me to look into?

your thoughts on my case against BA?
your thoughts on my FoS at the beginning of the day?
Your thoughts on Emp and EA's "case" against me?
your thoughts on lurkers...

My thoughts on BA don't amount to much at all, I'll probably look back at this when I get time this weekend.
Same for the FoS
As for Emp and EA's "case", I don't think it holds any weight at all.
As for lurkers, well

[Jebus]

Why does your mum hate you?

unvote (if I had one)
Vote: Empking

[Jebus]

I did nopt call anyone Scum in real life.

But you did insult their mother :/

[Jebus]

5/12 is almost 50% scum... pretty high. I think we are done with 3, but 4 isn't impossible, though it would require pretty much every townie alive to be a power role. Talk about swingy.

Wrong. Two mafia of 3-4 can be like one mafia of two people, since there's a moderate chance the two mafias will kill each other.

@sekinj's 'bah' post - This means there'r more Yakuza. Probably one more left to wipe off the faction.

[Jebus]

Wrong. Two mafia of 3-4 can be like one mafia of two people, since there's a moderate chance the two mafias will kill each other.

What?

No. Mafia A would have 3-4 people. B would have 3-4 people.....

Unless that isn't your intent....

I honestly don't understand what your point is.

Mafia A has 3-4 people. Mafia B has the same. There are 15 people overall. So about 6-8/15 are scum. This can still be a balanced setup, since two mafias have a decent chance of killing each other. So we may well be looking at 3-5 scum left.

[Jebus]

Rereading right now, will give you a result in a bit...

[Jebus]

Coming up with massive post soon. About a quarter of the way done re-reading...

[Jebus]

Super Massive Post Time (or at least, part of it )

First off, a repost of who's still here and who's gone (copied from the first post):

Alive (16/24)
01- skitzer
02- Haschel Cedricson
03- Seraphim
04- armlx
05- Cybele
06- Erratus Apathos
07- curiouskarmadog
08- Ku_F
11- hasdgfas (TheSweatpantsNinja)
12- farside22 (DynamoXI)
14- Jebus
18- massive
19- ShadowGirl
20- Rush
23- Sierra
24- BlakAdder

Dead (8/24)
17- populartajo - vanilla townie - lynched on Day 1
15- Stef - japanese mafia member - killed on Night 1
16- ooba - cult leader - murdered on Night 1
10- Empking - vanilla townie - lynched on Day 2
09- Electra - greek mafia member - assassinated on Night 2
13- GhostWriter - japanese mafia member - killed on Night 2
22- sekinj - japanese mafia member - murdered on Night 2
21- Tarhalindur - tracker - slain on Night 2

So we've got more japanese mafia, probably only one more.
We've also got a few greek mafia members left, based on the japanese mafia, there'd probably be three of them.
Then we've got the rest of the cult which can't recruit since ooba is dead. Either way, there's one or two cult members left (possible that the cult started with two people, and one more from night one.
Then the possible serial killer.

So 6~ scum to get rid of. We've lost a tracker and two vanilla townies, so we're probably not in bad shape.


Anyway, on to the good stuff.

First page and a half contain a bandwagon on me. While it may be partly random, I still think it's noteworthy enough to give the five an FoS. GhostWriter, armlx, Tarhalindur , Erratus Apathos, and ooba. Three of them are dead, two of them were mafia/cult. So there's a moderate possibility that Erratus and armlx are scum.

FoS: Erratus, armlx

Page three, we get populartajo jumping on my wagon. Turns out vanilla later.
We also get something else of interest, TSPN (who was replaced by hascow) in post 56. Take a look at it. Though it may be the random stage, I still think it seems noteworthy, and also makes me look at the Haschel Cedricson wagon.
The Haschel Cedricson wagon contained curioskarmadog and TSPN. So not really a wagon then, but

FoS: curiouskarmadog, hascow

all the same.

Page four, I ask for the randomness to stop and to get on a wagon to three votes from a lynch. My reasoning behind that was 1) because random stage makes it too hard for me to tell the difference between jokes and seriousness, and because 2) I felt like getting the show on the road. Bandwagons are a good place to start.
Populartajo makes a vanilla claim out of nowhere.
TSPN is the first to make note of the claim. He came in ten posts later.

FoS: armlx, massive, cybele

(they were all in the posts before the note of Populartajo).

Page five has an interesting exchange between Cybele and armlx, worth looking at.

FoS: Cybele

.

Not much of interest on page six. Sierra suggests pressuring Stef, and an exchange between armlx and populartajo.

Page seven, sekinj comes in with good evidence on populartajo, but no vote yet.
Stef points out he's being defended by being insulted.
Curiouskarmadog seems to be defending populartajo with synonyms.
Armlx tries to move off the topic by calling the points populartajo made rediculous.
Curiouskarmadog tries again to defend populartajo.
Shadowgirl tries to shutdown the discussion on the above, as armlx did, by using similar logic.
Sierra posts using only non-commital (as Tar said) questions.

FoS: curiouskarmadog, Sierra

Page eight. Some good stuff by armlx, and a bit more something from Sierra. Massive comes in with a late vote on populartajo.

FoS: massive

Page nine, BlackAdder seems to know populartajo is telling the truth in his claim, but strangely still votes for him. The rest of the stuff pertains mainly do already dead town and scum.

FoS: BlackAdder

Page ten, BlackAdder seems to be defending Stef (scum), and curiouskarmadog makes a somewhat moderate case against BlackAdder. Haschel Cedricson also contributes a bit to the pot, and voted populartajo, again with good reason.
Armlx calls curiouskarmadog's case chainsawing, which I can agree with.

FoS: BlackAdder, curiouskarmadog

Page eleven through thirteen, we fall apart. Populartajo loses it, and we get chaos with even a doc claim. Note: Curiouskarmadog makes the hammer against a claimed doc. Not worthy of an FoS, but still noteworthy.

Day 2, page thriteen and fourteen, we get a five vote wagon on BlackAdder. TSPN notes the "japanese" before the mafia, and asks if this means more than one mafia.

Page fifteen, not too much. Something about skitzer's defense of BlackAdder is putting blips on my scum-o-meter.

FoS: skitzer

Will finish up later. My list is as follows:

curiouskarmadog
BlackAdder
massive
armlx
Cybele
Skitzer
hascow
Sierra

Everyone else.

[Jebus]

Armlx: I'm not sure of this, that's just a rough estimation. Two four-person scumgroups = 8/24, boils down to a scum-town ratio of 1:3. With the cult on top, and possible SK, it makes the game pretty balanced.

curioskarmadog: I didn't say anything on 10/16 because I had only skimmed through the recent pages (13-17~).

I also didn't FoS the hammer because I found populartajo to be superscummy.

And yeah, I only went from page 1-15 on that. The other part coming next time I get a chance.

[Jebus]

I'm pretty sure there's one more Yakuza out there because of sekinj's "bah" post on page 22, just after the night scene. Remember, that was still day three.

Basically, it said "Go Yakuza, win win win!". This tells me

Oh, there's still a chance for Yakuza to win, so most likely there's still more of them

.
You're right though, it's possible he's trying to screw with us, but let's assume the worst. Pascal's Wager, sort of, if we assume (bet) that there's still one more out there, we can only gain, and not have anything to lose, except time, which we've got plenty to spare for finding this info. Besides, we can always just find out after the next night scene :/

And I didn't FoS curiouskarmadog for his hammer because I found populartajo to be superscummy, so aka, it didn't put much of a blip on my scum-o-meter.

[Jebus]

As for FoS's for the early wagons, well, that just falls to coincidence that there was so much scum on them, so it's possible that there's still more. A weak FoS, but an FoS all the same.

[Jebus]

Jebus makes a good point that validates BA as scum.

?

Explain please?

[Jebus]

Hai Sierra.

Sierra has been quiet recently which I find very interesting.

Anything to say about this (and everything else me and has are poking at you?

[Jebus]

I can get behind a SG lynch.

I can't. From what I've read up on so far (up to page 15), SG seemed somewhat more pro-town than scum. If this changes after that, and excuse me if I missed this, wanna point this out to me please?

And @sekinj's 'bah' post, it's on page 22.

[Jebus]

BAH!!! GO YAKUZA!!!!!!!! WIN WIN WIN!!!!

[Jebus]

Well, I've gotta go with massive here, for reasons I had in my readthrough.

vote: massive

Still reading up to current.

His visit is quite effective, since Sierra showed up even before opening the PM.

Lurker = FoS Sierra.

[Jebus]

Still here, but I still don't have enough time to go back and read the parts I've missed.

I'll try my best to participate without having read the last 15 pages.

[Jebus]

Vote: massive

Nothing's changed from yesterday.

[Jebus]

I wasn't keeping track of who might be in which mafia. I'm not picky at the moment.

[Jebus]

Eh, screw it.

unvote
Vote: Erratus Apathos

I'm a watcher. He killed (specifically) CKD.

I targeted Tarhalindur (didn't get targeted), Ghostwriter (killed by BlackAdder), and then CKD (killed by Erratus Apathos).

I've got no hard evidence on massive, so my justification on killing him is much lighter.

Ghostwriter was a Japanese mafia, so BlackAdder is not. Erratus Apathos could be any scum, so I go with him over BA.

They can't be anything else, 'cause they were targeted by one person only, and they died from it.

[Jebus]

I'll take it for now, I see no reason not to take obvscum over a claimed vig.

unvote
Vote: BA

I'll take a looksy at this, though.

[Jebus]

Yep, flavouring checks out, for the moment.

[Jebus]

Today’s lynch should be either Jebus or BA since one of them is lying.
@Jebus can you confirm this:

They can't be anything else, 'cause they were targeted by one person only, and they died from it.

Would you be told if multiple people targeted the same person?

@Jebus: Why weren’t you more suspicious of BA yesterday if you had this information? You were voting for other people and not pushing BA.

My role PM says I see who targeted the person I targeted. I assume that means I know everyone who targeted that person.

As for yesterday, I didn't go after BA because I didn't have any good case against him (nor the time to go back and make one), and if I tried to vote him, the only justification I could have given for it was claiming my role, which I didn't want to do until I got at least one more.

[Jebus]

Because if I were scum, I would have chosen to kill them.

Tarhalindur was playing as a pro-town, so I assumed that would be someone who was killed.

I wasn't around/got swamped with stuff, and didn't have time to make an educated choice, so I picked Ghostwriter at random.

And as for CKD, he seemed moderately scummy, so I was hoping to learn someone of an opposite scumgroup to him, or a pro-town name I can be sure of.

[Jebus]

unvote

I'ma make this clear. Llamafluff called this out a little earlier ago. I am indeed a watcher, though I completely made up the BlackAdder bit for reaction, cause I was indeed suspicious of him.

So who did I target? I targeted Shadowgirl, who wasn't visited by anyone.

The rest is true, however. I did get EA guilty of killing CKD, and nobody visited Tar.

So yeah, the BA part was a gambit. I'm fairly content, after re-read number two of the last few pages that BA is town. The only thing that makes me think otherwise is his post 910, which just came off as scummy (as in an aggressive shut-down).

And for Llamafluff in this little gambit:
Post 911 - Where'd the mafia doctor bit come in?
Post 914 - So care to explain why Rush was killed by the vig?
Post 915 - Don't be so assumptious.

Just a generalization, you really didn't stop to seriously think about my claim. It was out of place, and I'm honestly surprised BA was the only one to jump on it.

I'd still like to look at EA deeper and see if the vig claim checks out better, but for now,

Vote: Llamafluff

[Jebus]

I'm not actually thinking EA is the vig. I think more likely SK.

[Jebus]

I'm not actually thinking EA is the vig. I think more likely SK.

Like I said, the point of this was to alleviate my suspicions on BA, or confirm them. It's sorta hard to point out what a townie post looks like, since there's such a broad spectrum, but I think it falls under the 'townie angry/shocked at false accusations'. I believe he's town now.

Reading up on EA when I get a chance.

[Jebus]

I'm not actually thinking EA is the vig. I think more likely SK.

But he hasn't been counterclaimed. Though, I'm not sure the real vig would/should want to claim, anyway.

Right, and if he's not the vig, he'd probably be NK'd by the vig.

Back to drawing board, I guess.

[Jebus]

Well, then we'd probably lose our vig for sure seeing as the doctor is gone... But at least the mafia/SK won't be taking down another pro-town player.

Or the vig would kill EA, in which case we end up better off. I dunno.

As for niv, I'm all for it.

unvote
Vote: niv

@Llama - I saw that, got nothing to say, though, 'cept unvote.

[Jebus]

It happens, though in that case the SK's would likely be killable at night, in which case the other SK should be able to kill EA. SK's are generally town-aligned until they're the only scum left.

[Jebus]

^Bad way to go about this. We don't want our vig outed, since there'd be no docs to protect him/her.

Assume that the claim didn't happen, and go from there.

[Jebus]

I dont know who Jap/SK is, I thought BA was Jap for a while, but the reaction to the Jebus thing seemed genuine. SK is most likely one of Jahudo or Sierra after the people I have ruled out, but I really dont know which of them is the better persuit.

I completely disagree because Jebus claim was tainted in a lie. Of course he didn't target GW the day he died. That is not hard to fake a comment like that when it is probably true based on them scum buddies together

What, what?

Explain, please? (or at least re-word, I'm not really sure how to interpret this )

[Jebus]

I dont know who Jap/SK is, I thought BA was Jap for a while, but the reaction to the Jebus thing seemed genuine. SK is most likely one of Jahudo or Sierra after the people I have ruled out, but I really dont know which of them is the better persuit.

I completely disagree because Jebus claim was tainted in a lie. Of course he didn't target GW the day he died. That is not hard to fake a comment like that when it is probably true based on them scum buddies together

What, what?

Explain, please? (or at least re-word, I'm not really sure how to interpret this )

Didn't you claim you saw BA target GW and that was not the truth?

Correct. That was my gambit to get a genuine reaction from BA, which I'm content with at the moment.

[Jebus]

If EA is not our vig, then a scum killer is out in the open, meaning we shouldn't need a vig counterclaim. We definitely should not waste our lynch on EA right now, now that I've thought this through. It'd be a useless gamble, and by having our vig counterclaim, we'd out our vig, who would get killed pretty quick.

So no counterclaim, for the

n

th time.

unvote
Vote: LF

Hai:

@farside - EA doesnt get lynched if no one counters vig.

If you are vig, counter him

. I already how showed taking out a faction works given the WIFOM situation it makes for scum involving their next NK.

Yeah fair enough, just given my read and guesses on what the groups were overnight, coupled with how people are acting today make me certain that Niv is scum.

Still hold true what I said about no counter-vig means we dont lynch EA.

A scum-scum-SK-SK-cult setup is just wow.

I still dont believe two vigs. As far as I am concerned though,

EA is not going to be lynched unless someone counters him.

Again, trying to argue for something that would lead to an SK (ie non-Greek) lynch.

I have a bit of a personal priority to be hunting the SK, and have a really good reason for

getting a counter to EA.

Given that again a SK lynch (especially non-EA one) would not only present a WIFOM between jebus-EA as the modified doctor and only two anti-town threats, but also prevent one anti-town kill and eliminate any chance at the game ending.

Also, what makes you think Sierra or I are the SK?

My notes basically just have you two as options at this point. EA doesnt fit and SL doesnt fit for that part of the puzzle. I have strong greek or a town read on everyone else (except BA who I just am clueless on).

I know its pretty conveluted in the process that I went through,

but if someone counterclaimed right there it would of meant a scum lynch, no questions asked. If fact it still would if someone counters EA, would make my job a bit easier.

Will get to the other stuff a bit later.

Bolded all things pushing the counterclaim of the vig in the last 4-5 pages.


As for why we shouldn't look for the SK - The SK is always aligned as town until most, if not all, of the mafia is gone. Why? If the mafia hold a majority over town, then the SK is in the minority and thus has a bad chance of losing. And less/no mafia means that the SK is the only killing role, which means that they can only die by lynching. Which is why SK = Townie until the mafia is gone, which is why SK comes after mafia on the priority list.

Basically, use the SK to our advantage. If we've got him now by investigative evidence from an already claimed role, by all means lets lynch him. But if a claim of a power role is necessary to out the SK now, it's not at all worth it.

[Jebus]

That'd be nice.

[Jebus]

@ShadowGirl:

Llama has been pro-town the rest of the game, and asking for a vig counter-claim could just be stupidity/carelessness rather than scuminess.

I would like at least some kind of analysis, some kind of sign that you've read. What do you think of what's been happening?

Wait, what? (see quote in next post)

[Jebus]

I've said it before, I'll say it again. I'm a vanilla townie. If the game isn't over tomorrow, promise me you'll lynch Jebus,

and possibly LlamaFluff as well

when Jebus flips scum.

The way Llama's been acting towards Jebus's claim makes me think that they are scum partners

So, um, what?

[Jebus]

His claim is an unlikely scum claim, though I don't think it clears him.

For purposes of having an 'extra vig', if you will, I think the SK should remain hidden, and claim later on. Keep in mind that with all the mafia left, the SK would have to go after mafia if he/she hopes to have a chance. But yes, the SK should claim later on, maybe Day 5 or 6.

And I've already claimed, I am not the SK.


And as for my vote,

Unvote
Vote: SG

Basically the above post. And although her interactions with Stef imply Yakuza, I actually think that she'd be Greek. Why? 'Cause I've been there before. Defending and teaming is done by scum, but usually with a pro-town as the 'victim'. Though remember, Yakuza don't know who the Greeks are.

[Jebus]

I'm not sure I entirely buy LF/EA's read on BA, but i still don't think he's today's lynch.

SG would still be my choice- also getting 'middling' vibes off of Jahudo.

This^

[Jebus]

I always seem to be kept around for this sole reason - I'm a fairly easy lynch. As far as not breadcrumbing, I didn't breadcrumb as doctor in Open 70 either.

Being lynchable does not make you town. Having not breadcrumbed in a past game does not mean we should let that part of a claim go.

Not to mention... who the hell breadcrumbs doctor?

'You'd be surprised.

And if I must have something else in this post, it's that my opinion on SG hasn't changed.

[Jebus]

Hello. I watched The Fonz. Nobody targetted him.

Still wondering why we never got rid of massive.

Vote: Massive

[Jebus]

Still wondering why we never got rid of massive.

What happened to this:

I've got no hard evidence on massive, so my justification on killing him is much lighter.

You originally voted for him based on actions in page 4 and 8. Do those suspicions still hold that much weight? If not what else have you seen? And if you count suspicions from Day 4, do you think they are exaggerated by the fact that farside and springlullaby were the two people pushing those suspicions?

That was relative - and in that case, hard evidence referred to investigative results.

Outside of investigate results, I'm very happy to lynch him. What I had him for back when still hold weight.

I also don't really count in opinion what the scum roles did about it - they could be pushing for a town lynch, but just as easily could have been pushing for a scum lynch. Point is, thinking about it gets you into a blatant Wifom situation, so I choose to avoid that.

[Jebus]

I have doubts about LF's claim, but I don't think I can win as SK at this point anyways, so I'm just going to hope he's telling the truth and did get roleblocked on day 1. I am in fact the serial killer.

With that cleared up, if LF is honest then this leads to a guaranteed town win plan:

Today: We lynch Fonz.
Tonight: LF recruits me, Jahudo vigs Sierra, Jebus watches Jahudo.
Tomorrow: If both me and LF are both alive to confirm a successful recruit, we lynch massive. Otherwise, we lynch whichever of me and LF is still alive, then Jahudo vigs massive.

(Note that Fonz, Sierra, and massive in this example are interchangable.)

Does anyone have a problem with this plan?

Okay, I'll take it.

My one problem is having LF recruit you - we could still use you as a vig.

Other than that, I love this plan.

So

unvote, Vote: The Fonz

[Jebus]

Good fight, Llama. Personally, I smelt SK from you.