Open 821 | Fall With Your Friends | Endgame

[MURDERCAT]

Woah

[MURDERCAT]

The only way that ydrasse and hectic don't end up trusting each other is if they are both scum

[MURDERCAT]

He usually rolls scum in games like this, it's a scumtell

lol this is actually so true

[MURDERCAT]

I would not have accepted any trust early as scum in this setup. I am not Ydrasse but this is a very bad assumption.

Why? Isn't it just free?

[MURDERCAT]

I think I will claim my strategy. I want to be alive late into the game and won't be trusting until endgame

[MURDERCAT]

If I were scum I would take the first offer I got based on the logic SS laid out. I am town (and I think, above average town) and so I want to be around to make the hard decisions. Also I'm on a bit of a losing streak and I was killed N1 in my last game with good reads and town went on to lose terribly so I'd rather keep some control over this game.

[MURDERCAT]

Literally inevitable lol

[MURDERCAT]

it’s nai because he trusted me

actually probably town because i don’t think he trusts me like that as scum because he knows i’d be sad

so it's you and hectic as partners, right?

if i trust you right now, and you leave with me, it would confirm Hectic as scum and we can win this game.

I trust Ydrasse

if you dont trust me, don't trust me. just don't trust hectic because there's no town incentive to randomly trust players in page 1.

I think this looks bad tbh

[MURDERCAT]

Didn't quite get my response to this in before the lock. I didn't really lay out clear logic for why insta trusting is better. In fact I laid out benefits and drawbacks of each, so I don't think what I said clearly points to this at all.

I was referring to the "doesn't feel comfortable as scum" logic

[MURDERCAT]

I wasn't talking about you though

I understand, enough other people in the game do though and it applies

[MURDERCAT]

If we identify 4 people not to trust and both scum are in there we win

my top 3 are probably {catboi, HEM, inutile}?

[MURDERCAT]

"im gonna do this plan" it's a little more lamisty

Well there was a whole discussion about why scum might do it so I figured it was worth mentioning

[MURDERCAT]

Seeing as inutile hasn't posted, everyone else done something to move above null for you? IDK, feels premature, even though I don't think it's scummy.

I could add Dann in maybe for that last post. Otherwise yes

[MURDERCAT]

Oh hey we're mindmelding

[MURDERCAT]

I'd rather not give scum prism the chance to get out even if I think prism is lean town

[MURDERCAT]

Why inutile, murdercat?

null for not posting

[MURDERCAT]

It's my top ~4 of 8 lol

[MURDERCAT]

tbqh I don't think any combination of scum ever wins this setup

[MURDERCAT]

(with this plist)

[MURDERCAT]

I'd rather help win first, but I believe we are both town Infinity

[MURDERCAT]

My prediction is that prism will trust SS and I will trust infinity and that will be GG
The scum team of Dann and HEM will lose

[MURDERCAT]

so murdercat is pulling all these out of thin air

check my meta

[MURDERCAT]

i'll do you one better; explain your meta

viewtopic.php?p=12861663#p12861663
viewtopic.php?p=12612853#p12612853

I often try to hero solve for style points

[MURDERCAT]

where'd you get your reads from the games you linked and where'd you get your reads from this game

I'd rather not to be honest, if anyone else cares I will but it would be faster if Infinity just trust tests me

[MURDERCAT]

can you talk more about HEM?

Trying to avoid 2 townies pairing plus shading me is where the read is coming from

[MURDERCAT]

I'd prefer if you didn't

you/HEM is actually like my least favorite combo today I think

[MURDERCAT]

SS/cat could be good, if there is scum in that pair so be it

[MURDERCAT]

Hmm, when did I go from being in your never trust group to being enough of a townread to want me to pair off?

We are up a pair and I think you and SS will always live in the could be scum range, so it would be good to solve both of you at once. It's not the mostly likely to be town pair, but it would polarize the rest of the players left over.

[MURDERCAT]

this is lazy

I'm not calling you scum but this is a bad way to play mafia I think

In this particular setup I am pretty confident that it makes sense to have questionable but leantown players pair up at some point. I'm not sure whether it makes more sense to do it early or later, but I do think it's advantageous.

[MURDERCAT]

I take qualms with the assumption that neither will become more readable

My point was more that I have respect for both of their scum games to the point that I would not want to have to choose one of them in endgame. If they are both town I think them pairing leads to autowin. I think there is something to be said about taking a bigger risk now because if prism/HEM pair and HEM is scum it's going to suck to figure out which of them to pair with later.

[MURDERCAT]

Murdercat, anything about Infinitys game so far that you are sus of?

First post made me a little worried, but since then everything is fine and I'm not going to paranoia on Infinity any time soon.

[MURDERCAT]

That's...kind of an odd approach to take, and why us two? I feel like something_smart is decently readable, given enough time. Why not aim for the more confident townreads early? That feels like a basic risk mitigation strategy.

does 284 answer it or do you want more

[MURDERCAT]

If I were scum I would take the first offer I got based on the logic SS laid out. I am town (and I think, above average town) and so I want to be around to make the hard decisions. Also I'm on a bit of a losing streak and I was killed N1 in my last game with good reads and town went on to lose terribly so I'd rather keep some control over this game.

I addressed it here

[MURDERCAT]

I already said that Infinity is free to trust test me if she wants to. I won't accept right away though.

[MURDERCAT]

I dont think either would do it even though they said they would

Where was I unclear about my desire to stay in the game rather than leave

[MURDERCAT]

Nope lol
There is no advantage in leaving the game sooner, I can leave with Infinity any time

pedit: I mean, my banner? Not to be too arrogant but in my last game I had 2/3 scum on D1 and town didn't lim them and lost. I am on a hot streak the past few town games and I've still lost those games

[MURDERCAT]

Trust me then

Or don't

[MURDERCAT]

The fun part of this setup is that it doesn't matter at all

[MURDERCAT]

It was a bit tongue in cheek

[MURDERCAT]

the people here are too conservative with their trusts. i would like everyone to start popping those trusts when they come to the conclusion is someone is "locktown" and that "you'll never change your mind" — even changing your entire strategies just to set both of you up to trust as a surething.

pop those trusts so we can start getting actual reads

I don't understand why you seem so eager, yet were so critical of hectic

[MURDERCAT]

Monkey has voiced wanting people to trust earlier, and there might be a reason why scum!monkey would accept that I'm not thinking of, which would give us useful info.

I don't follow, isn't it bad if scum HEM leaves with town you?

[MURDERCAT]

At the very least you should trust test me first if you were to do that.

[MURDERCAT]

oh ok

I am surprised to see everyone with strong TRs there

[MURDERCAT]

At least if I'm right I get to brag about it

[MURDERCAT]

It's hard for me to compare to a game that I modded given I had nothing to solve. I wasn't really reading the game from that mindset

[MURDERCAT]

I guess my reads differ from the overall gamestate

[MURDERCAT]

{Prism, Infinity 324}
{catboi, Something_Smart}
{inutile}
{Dannflor, humaneatingmonkey}

I think I'm here. Infinity can you name the most likely scum team from your perspective? Same to you S_S.

[MURDERCAT]

Sure, I'm town reading all of them so why wouldn't I

[MURDERCAT]

Going with consensus reads is very likely to be wrong in my opinion

[MURDERCAT]

Can you give a readslist

[MURDERCAT]

Inutile can you give a readslist as well

[MURDERCAT]

like i was trying to see if infinity on similar path but ehh

That makes more sense now

[MURDERCAT]

Hard to solve without info

[MURDERCAT]

I do think not being solvy is actively scummy, but it's pretty weakly so. I think it's mostly a matter of I expected murder to keep up the solviness, which was influencing my townread of him, so I probably shouldn't have had such a strong townread on him to begin with.

this is consistent with my scum meta to be fair to infinity, but also I don't think there is much to go on at the moment that is making me change my reads

[MURDERCAT]

Hard to solve without info

i remember you being apprehensive about my idea of starting to trust people. did i remember right?

No actually, it just seemed inconsistent with your previous reaction to page 1. I would be fine with anyone trusting me at the moment

[MURDERCAT]

I'm fine with this trust happening

[MURDERCAT]

We should be only trusting prism now today, it would be dumb to do anything else

[MURDERCAT]

Because this game gets a lot harder once the first scum gets out and prism is effective town now

[MURDERCAT]

And in the world where prism is scum it's better for prism to leave before coordinating a scum partners exit. Not that I think that's likely, but there's only downside to trusting outside prism now

[MURDERCAT]

Yeah that works great until we do it to scum

[MURDERCAT]

you're just trying to slippery slope fallacy now. doing it to everyone was never the point.

I am explicitly scum reading you lol, it's not a slippery slope

[MURDERCAT]

Good luck with the move dwlee!

[MURDERCAT]

S_S and prism should pair today

[MURDERCAT]

You won't pair with cat and I think hem and damn are scum. Inutile is too absent to have a strong read on and I don't want to pair. So what else makes sense?

I can go through S_S iso and meta later though when I'm not on my phone

[MURDERCAT]

I would be fine with that, I don't share infinity's fear that no one will pair with me especially if she were to be confirmed

[MURDERCAT]

Well I hope I'm right

[MURDERCAT]

That's pretty unfortunate

[MURDERCAT]

HEM your town equity is way up in my mind now

[MURDERCAT]

Also Dann I'm more than a bit curious why you townlean me, given that you were trepidatious to townread me last time we played and you still did it and it ended up being a mistake.

I've been deliberately trying to lay "paranoia" as having a strong effect on my reads aside, because it annoys me to no end when applied to me

This makes a lot of sense.

I kinda take the opposite approach, where I frame "paranoia" as "I actually just can't read this person as well as I would like". But I'm not exactly the model of self-confidence.

Dann/S_S possible, this is their only interaction

[MURDERCAT]

Infinity can you trust me

[MURDERCAT]

That's...kind of an odd approach to take, and why us two? I feel like something_smart is decently readable, given enough time. Why not aim for the more confident townreads early? That feels like a basic risk mitigation strategy.

possible?

[MURDERCAT]

We can hard clear with trusts now at least

[MURDERCAT]

today is probably hem + hem's #1 scum read and we accept we lose to scum hem now

[MURDERCAT]

town read*

[MURDERCAT]

pretty clearly the blame falls on me, but my desire to hero solve is quite high

[MURDERCAT]

me? or the other cat

[MURDERCAT]

I want to hear from Infinity

[MURDERCAT]

Can you explain why? I don't see how it follows from S_S scum.

Prism is confirmed town and there's 1 less scum in the game, plus I was shown to be wrong about the gamestate

[MURDERCAT]

to hero solve here you don't really need anyone's trust

The opportunity for a hero solve is gone, I took my 1 shot per game

[MURDERCAT]

Whoever is leaving should claim the pair they think should happen next and the two they want to leave

[MURDERCAT]

But why does that lead to the conclusion of HEM's town equity being way up? I don't follow what the logic is supposed to be here.

Prism had a strong town read on HEM which is now confirmed, my reads were proven to be not great so I'm doubting them, and 1 less scum means it can't be both Dann and HEM so the likelihood that it's HEM must go down as a result.

[MURDERCAT]

I'm waiting for infinity to check in before even thinking about trusts and I hope everyone else does the same

[MURDERCAT]

Infinity what pair do you think should happen next / can you trust me

[MURDERCAT]

I'm not going to accept immediately, I just want to be confirmed

[MURDERCAT]

who is most likely to be last scum you think?

[MURDERCAT]

what plan

[MURDERCAT]

I have suspicions that Infinity is last scum and I think that cat/monkey/me/shiki should be the path

[MURDERCAT]

I untrust inutile

sike

I don't think you can do this

[MURDERCAT]

Why am I scum murder

I feel like you haven't been solving with me and won't confirm me

[MURDERCAT]

Do you think I'm confident enough as scum that I can trick you that I base my gameplay around it early on?

I mean this has happened before

[MURDERCAT]

The game is either over now or HEM and inutile are both conf town, so HEM decide on the last pair

[MURDERCAT]

You wouldn't confirm me as scum because I am a possible final 2 that's not you, unlike HEM

The gamma game where koba caught you

[MURDERCAT]

There's no reason for me to stop you, fmpov

[MURDERCAT]

Maybe I paranoia'd too hard, it could easily just be damn. I think we all agree damn never leaves the game

[MURDERCAT]

You are town

[MURDERCAT]

[MURDERCAT]

mm, were these the only interactions you looked at?

I looked through infinity too but wanted a reaction first

[MURDERCAT]

how does the paragon of mafia hunters decide this is an okay result for this game where he's town

I had a typo in that post

[MURDERCAT]

how does the paragon of mafia hunters change from "i want to stay behind to lead the game" to "trust me infinity"

It was for reactions to see if infinity would jump at it

[MURDERCAT]

If we create Monkey, inutile, Infinity, catboi townblock, we can leave behind dannflor and murdercat.

however, i'm still not 100% on inutile even though i want to be 100% on her.

I think we still win this scenario like 80% of the time

[MURDERCAT]

Gg

[MURDERCAT]

This was a fun setup thanks for modding dwlee

[MURDERCAT]

I overestimated my ability to solve without the usual info

[MURDERCAT]

That's what makes the setup good though I think, a lot less pressure for scum if you only have to convince one person.

[MURDERCAT]

I think the only change I would make is to have a single 7 day timer that doesn't reset.

[MURDERCAT]

I feel like damn shiki was a pretty plausible endgame, I didn't really understand that town read. All good though

[MURDERCAT]

I'd rather this be a fun setup where people try to be heros than play it optimally

[MURDERCAT]

I find working together with people fun. I don't think the mentality where optimal play and enjoyment are in opposition to one another is correct.

Fair enough, I just think that it loses some uniqueness if you play it that way