Micro 1020: To Tell the Truth [Game over]

[Infinity 324]

VOTE: t3

You really like ending the day early don't you

Too bad it's plurality

[Infinity 324]

T3 are you so excited cause you rolled scum or?

[Infinity 324]

Clidd being town is probably true just probabilistically and also clidd seems like a player who's gonna obvtown so it makes sense for scum to choose town!clidd.

Dwlee I'm less sure on. In general I think mafia would tend to choose townies to avoid soft guilties, but town!dwlee doesn't seem like a player who would obvtown very much so scum are less likely to choose him for fear of giving town info. Anyone know what their scumgame is like?

[Infinity 324]

If clidd is scum, the chance that he would be named as town is 1/2 * 6/8 = 3/8. My intuition says that the probability he's scum would go down to 3/8 ÷ (3/8 + 3), or 1/9. If someone knows stats they can correct me on that.

If dwlee is town, the probability that they'd be named as scum is 1/2 * 2/8 = 1/8. Again, my intuition says that the probability that they're town is 3/8 ÷ (3/8 + 1) = 3/11. Wow that's really low. I hate it but I think the correct play is to elim dwlee and not think about the wine too much.

VOTE: dwlee

[Infinity 324]

Yeah that too

[Infinity 324]

Clidd is conftown and infinity is weird champ for suggesting that we just kill me based on probability. I don't even know if the math is right but I have to double check it.

Is it weird to want to vote someone who has a 73% chance of being scum?

Even if my math is wrong it's very unlikely that a townie gets named as mafia

[Infinity 324]

Each player has a base probability of being town at 6/9

It's 6/8 cause there are 8 players alive.

[Infinity 324]

Yes I definitely knew that.

[Infinity 324]

independent probability of a guilty on a townie (3/8)

This should be independent probability of a guilty yeah?

I got the same answer as you by doing a weighted average is there a simpler way to do it

Anyway

3/16 * 5/8 / (3/8) = 5/16

I'm not gonna include the clidd math because that's too complicated

It's still lower than the probability of pooky being town given a quickhammer given any reasonable inputs. It's funny cause it seems like datisi seems like he's doing a Bayes theorem calculation in his head but if I knew what numbers he was putting into that I'd be pretty appalled. Town can quickhammer too

[Infinity 324]

"town can quickhammer" yeah sure. give me some proof that town!pooky would be that much of an ass to catapult someone 26 posts into the game. alternatively give me proof that pooky actually thought t3 had a decent amount of scum equity. without either of those, pooky is so much more likely to be scum, and this should be a no-brainer

I shouldn't need to come up with a plausible-sounding town motivation to argue that pooky has less than a 70% chance of being scum here. Of course it's bad play as town but like, come on. No play-based info will give someone a 70% chance of being scum, 50% would be generous.

[Infinity 324]

This should be independent probability of a guilty yeah?

Yeah you are right, I started with an assumption that they are town so that makes it weird when I calculate the probability they are town...

The actual calculation including all scenarios and T3 town is actually way harder than I thought and you need to make an assumption about the likelihood scum puts in 0, 1, and 2 townies

Sure, I just calculated the weighted average of dwlee getting a guilty as town and as mafia. I don't know if I did the same thing as you but I still got 3/8. Obviously you could get more precise if you wanted to and made more assumptions but I won't

[Infinity 324]

how the hell are you coming up with less than 70% chance of being scum?

I'm not quite sure what the disconnect here is. Scum!pooky quickhammering on page 2 is absurdly unlikely as well, and probably also bad play. Yes it increases the likelihood pooky is scum, but uh...more than a soft guilty? Lol

[Infinity 324]

Do you want me to show you my internal Bayes theorem calculation

I don't think you do

I don't think anyone thinks quickhammering is a towntell. I've never seen that

I'm still baffled about how you think any play no matter how scummy will bring someone's scum % to 70. The most openwolf playing I have ever seen in mafia would probably bring someone's scum % up to 60 in this setup.

[Infinity 324]

Town plays incredibly scummy too sometimes? And not that rarely?

[Infinity 324]

Y'all we have a guilty

Pooky is scum too but

Y'all

[Infinity 324]

Infinity I need you to walk me through how this is a guilty if the true result is clidd.

We still call it a tracker guilty even if weirdness could've happened

Same with a gunsmith guilty

This is closer to that than really any play-based scumtell

[Infinity 324]

Pooky is quickly approaching the 60% mark I talked about earlier

[Infinity 324]

If clidd was the real result then my result is complete noise. My alignment would have nothing to do with whether I got guilty or town.

I went through the math but like

It's very unlikely for town to get a mafia result. Even if clidd is the true result you still will more often than not get a town result.

[Infinity 324]

you'd literally hand scum the game if they selected two townies every night phase and you yeeted on a guilty.

Sure, the math definitely changes now that scum knows what everyone thinks. I still think it's more likely that scum tried to WIFOM (especially because selecting you as a townie is kinda ?)

[Infinity 324]

Pooky why are you appealing to datisi, isn't he supposed to be scum?

[Infinity 324]

Can you explain that a bit more?

I agree that mafia wouldn't necessarily just target town, but I'm not sure how you get that from what dwlee is saying

[Infinity 324]

Yeah that makes sense.

[Infinity 324]

Clidd being town is probably true just probabilistically and also clidd seems like a player who's gonna obvtown so it makes sense for scum to choose town!clidd.

Imo it's this plus I do think being on the list gives both players a little bit of a boost.

[Infinity 324]

I agree

[Infinity 324]

I wasn't even surprised it was a hammer I knew it was a hammer when the vote came out so I couldn't have been faking anything. What part of "that was a hammer" immediately after he voted is surprise.

Uh, I think it's the part where you said "omg"

[Infinity 324]

And "misreps about the math" :shifty:

Your 3/8 thing is like, yes clidd could've been guiltied too but he wasn't so that's not relevant. Assuming you're town there was a 3/16 chance you'd be guiltied. If you are town, /shrug. It happens. To me it's pretty clearly optimal to lim you.

PEdit: well you learn that those 2 players are less likely to be scum. And I think the chance is high enough that scum decided to wine that I'm still ok with this.

[Infinity 324]

And there was a 3/16 chance clidd would have been guiltied too...

Again, this didn't happen so it's irrelevant

Like infinity you know that in half of all scenarios the alignment I get shown as isn't alignment indicative at all?

And in half of scenarios you're confirmed scum

[Infinity 324]

Everyone has a 3/7 chance of being scum fypov

Fmpov the chance that you are scum is 11/16 but it's actually more because I didn't exclude myself

I'm done with this conversation

[Infinity 324]

No, Clidd is conftown and remove me that is 3/6.

If I treat clidd as conftown that makes you more likely to be scum not less

[Infinity 324]

I'm sure you'd all be annoyed if people were acting like you've been nailed as scum because of a 3/8 chance on a scum decision while the person who orchestrated it is open wolfing.

No I'd pretty much understand it tbh. If you get unlucky you get unlucky

[Infinity 324]

Pooky who are the 3 scum

r u trying to get me to miss so someone else gets mad at me?

There's no way pooky actually thinks this right?

[Infinity 324]

VOTE: pooky

Dwlee is like, moderately towny on play

[Infinity 324]

Also can you explain why you're SRing him? Besides, like, the fact that he's voting you based on some mechanical evidence

[Infinity 324]

If dwlee is town, that means the result on them must be wrong, making the result on clidd a true result. Therefore, from dwlee's perspective, clidd is confirmed town.

[Infinity 324]

==========[]

[Infinity 324]

Yeah I agree :/

I still want to elim pooky

[Infinity 324]

I still don't feel very comfortable voting with dwlee

[Infinity 324]

Why?

The guilty

[Infinity 324]

They're mildly towny to me, especially the way they reacted to people pushing them for the guilty. I don't really see anything that's stopping them from being scum though, besides pushing murder who's scummy

[Infinity 324]

IT'S 70% I DID THE MATH OK? OK

[Infinity 324]

Sorry for getting worked up but I feel like I've gone over this quite a bit

[Infinity 324]

3/16 * 5/8 / (3/8) = 5/16

This is the probability that someone is town given a guilty. The probability that they're scum is 11/16 which is about 69%

[Infinity 324]

Murdercat trying to strongarm a dwlee elim based on math seems like a possibility but not a very strong one imo. Murder doesn't seem like he's in powerwolf mode (and generally doesn't seem like the type to powerwolf). Also if clidd was the one with the guilty I don't think it would seem at all plausible to get that lim through. The most likely murder!scum possibility is that murder is hiding behind a math push to avoid scumhunting.

[Infinity 324]

Yes

[Infinity 324]

Pooky and datisi were the only other players here in that game yeah?

I'm not sure why c9++ would make scum want to put you on the list

[Infinity 324]

Not really? I still think scum would try to pick obvtownies to avoid giving town info. Not sure what you're getting at here

[Infinity 324]

the reason why i don't want to focus solely on "math" here is because i keep thinking of a secret hitler game i modded this last marathon. the game was steadily going towards a liberal (town) victory, and then there were two liberal governments that played fascist policies, and the game descended into chaos, because the most townread players passed fascist cards, and the only way for that to not have happened if they were town was if there were 6 fascist cards in the deck in a row. they calculated the odds of that happening, ~9%. so there must be a deepwolf. all while i was staring at the random.org rand that spat out 6 fascist cards in a row. town promptly lost that game.

Yeah sometimes that'll happen. Idk. I'm not confident in anyone's ability to read people much more often than random, so I try to trust mechanical evidence, it doesn't really come up that often though and it feels intuitively weird so maybe I don't do it when I should sometimes.

@dwlee Yeah for me you sort of were there and tunneling people, honestly I didn't pay that much attention to you in that game

[Infinity 324]

Murdercat can you do something

[Infinity 324]

Do you think dwlee claim is trash? His clearance on clidd is just bs?

There are no power roles in this game. Dwlee's "claim" was a joke, they know that clidd is town based on the mechanics of the game.

I think pooky and MC are playing scummy, I think dwlee is scummy because of the guilty, and you and pav are in my PoE I guess. I'm not sure how that fits together, but that's where I'm at.

[Infinity 324]

Thanks for clarifying that. So do you scum read dwlee?

I guess so

[Infinity 324]

No one is twisting my arm

Intent to hammer

[Infinity 324]

I feel like that makes dwlee town, I don't think scum would take the risk of dwlee coming up scum again

Also them bussing murdercat seems unlikely

Who's scum dwlee?

[Infinity 324]

I'm kinda done with math, it becomes more of a mindgame once scum know how people will be viewing the checks. I'm comfortable saying the chance that scum!dwlee would put themselves in the list again is very low.

[Infinity 324]

If scum!Dwlee was confident he was a townread why not check himself again?

The fact his alignment flipped in this check means *something*, doesn't it?

Well if scum!dwlee was confident they were a townread they wouldn't want to risk another guilty, which is a >50% chance. Maybe they thought town wouldn't care, but I still think it's a pretty big risk.

The fact that their alignment flipped makes them more likely to be town :)

I can do math if it would help you but I'm ok with this

[Infinity 324]

In my head I'm still trying to create a world where pooky is scum, would he bus if a bunch of people knew his meta of not bussing? Probably not still

Pav what are your thoughts

[Infinity 324]

You answered my question

I think I agree that angel is scum

[Infinity 324]

You flipping town would not make me scumread datisi.

[Infinity 324]

Micro 1020

Moderator: Umlaut
Backup Moderator: Ircher

Players

1. MURDERCAT
   
2. T3
   
3. Infinity 324
   
4. Dwlee99
   
5. Pavowski
   
6. ArcAngel9
   
7. Datisi
   
8. PookyTheMagicalBear
   
9. clidd

Spoiler: Game events

It's currently

Day 3

. The day will end in (expired on 2021-07-20 16:15:00).

Deaths

T3, a

Townie

, was launched Day 1.
MURDERCAT, a

Mafia Goon

, was launched Day 2.

Links

Day 1

— Dawn | vc1 | Nightfall

Day 2

— Dawn | vc1 | vc2 | vc3 | vc4 | vc5 | Nightfall

Day 3

— Dawn

Arcangel, pav, datisi I guess (I'd probably rethink a lot if arc and pav both flipped town)

[Infinity 324]

VOTE: angel

[Infinity 324]

I hate how meh this whole thing is but I'm pretty sure angel has to die before endgame, and I don't really know what I else I can do to sort people

[Infinity 324]

Pooky I guess

VOTE: pavowski

[Infinity 324]

Why is pav scummier than datisi for you atp?

[Infinity 324]

Pooky doesn't bus, datisi is towny on play

[Infinity 324]

Pooky doesn't bus, datisi is towny on play

Well if you're town they both can't be town :neutral:

Duh

@clidd Doesn't that mean pav is scum fmpov?

[Infinity 324]

It felt more like you rationalized what town!Infinity would think and robotically applied it here rather than genuinely evaluating the Pooky + Datisi scenario before proceeding

It's true I didn't consider the possible teams, I was just considering each slot individually.

That said, I don't think pooky/datisi is something worth considering here. The fact that pooky doesn't bus isn't something I often consider when trying to sort him, so relying on the town to all sheep datisi about that seems silly. And pooky suddenly deciding to bus when he hasn't for however many years makes no sense either.

[Infinity 324]

Ok

[Infinity 324]

At this point I'm ok with giving pooky the win if he decided to gambit one time here. I'm not going to prove to you I'm town

Also I do like playing as scum, the stress can get to me though.

[Infinity 324]

Dwlee is never scum here

[Infinity 324]

It's pretty clear clidd didn't want to play, I don't see how the replace out was a dick move?

As far as the setup goes it feels like scum should not be able to list players more than twice or so because it kind of ruined the mechanic this way, in return there should be fewer townies or more scum or something

[Infinity 324]

Maybe the factional kill is enough of an incentive idk

[Infinity 324]

I understand why it's frustrating for you, but no one is obligated to play a game they're not enjoying and I'm giving clidd the benefit of the doubt that that's why he replaced out.

[Infinity 324]

No then you don't join mafia games lol

Strongly disagree with datisi here but ok

[Infinity 324]

Continuing to play in a game you're not enjoying makes the game worse for everyone else

[Infinity 324]

Replacing out does make the game worse for others too, yeah

I'd be interested to see what clidd has to say. To me, clidd had lost interest in the game to the point that if scum won it wouldn't have been a deserved win because he had essentially stopped playing.

I think this was a last-resort type situation.

[Infinity 324]

I'm gonna make an MD thread.

To me it's just as much of a problem that players keep playing when they shouldn't than players replacing out when they shouldn't, if not more.

[Infinity 324]

I could be misremembering how often each thing happens too. Pooky also mentioned alignment which is a difficult problem, for a lot of people they're more likely to stop enjoying a game if they're scum. I feel like this question probably doesn't have many good answers unfortunately.

[Infinity 324]

I think we're seeing clidd's situation much differently. If someone is so demotivated that they're barely playing I wouldn't get any pride from beating them as scum. Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't see it happen very often that a townie replaces out in a key spot when they've been manipulated into bad reads. Obviously it really sucks for scum when it happens. I really don't think it was an "ejector button" for strategic benefit though.