Micro 1020: To Tell the Truth [Game over]

[Pavowski]

Hi!

The gods have dictated that I VOTE: Datisi and so I shall!

[Pavowski]

Maths make me nervous. They're great but ignore the psychological element

2 questions I have:

1) if Pooky is scum why is he so cavalier about it. The quickhammer sucks but it doesn't guarantee scum to me

2) would mafia use a check on their own to hide in plain sight or put the true/false thing on two townies?

Gut says Pooky is scum but I'm very curious why Dwlee is convinced Pooky is town

[Pavowski]

You should also include the probability of clidd getting selected because we would be having this same conversation if that happened but about clidd.

@pav he just gives me town vibes and I would have hammered that too. T3 was bad vibes.

T3 giving bad vibes happens in just about every game he plays, he said so himself

[Pavowski]

If clidd was the real result then my result is complete noise. My alignment would have nothing to do with whether I got guilty or town.

I went through the math but like

It's very unlikely for town to get a mafia result. Even if clidd is the true result you still will more often than not get a town result.

37.5% of the time I get a guilty when it's being randed. Yes "more often than not" but you'd literally hand scum the game if they selected two townies every night phase and you yeeted on a guilty.

This is why I think it's a mistake to assume mafia is just targeting town with the checks.

[Pavowski]

Can you explain that a bit more?

I agree that mafia wouldn't necessarily just target town, but I'm not sure how you get that from what dwlee is saying

I'm saying that I agree with what Dwlee is saying, that if we eliminate the guilty people in the checks, *assuming the mafia is targeting only town*, we'll lose.

But we all know this, which is why I don't think the assumption that mafia is only targeting town is a safe one.

Does that help? I'm not sure it helped me.

[Pavowski]

Sorry I haven't been in the thread much; I had a frustrating RL incident and I'm too tired to use my brain the way I should. I'll look with fresh eyes in the morning.

[Pavowski]

Sorry I haven't been in the thread much; I had a frustrating RL incident and I'm too tired to use my brain the way I should. I'll look with fresh eyes in the morning.

You've had a chance to post at least once here in the last few hours, but I'll take your word for it.

When you get back, I'd appreciate your feedback on the players: MC/Pooky/Arc.

Reading over and catching up.

I can't claim to know anybody's meta, so I'm thinking along three paths in this game.

1. Pooky. Quickhammer looks bad, of course town can quickhammer but it makes more sense from scum. Don't love their interactions but if they're a town quickhammerer they make as much sense as if they're a scum quickhammerer. Basically the feel I get is "come on I'm obviously town" which makes so little sense as a scum play I almost buy it. Basically they feel kinda chaotic and it's hard to sort chaos.

2. Arc. 142 is not great; the read on Dat is weird because 52 seems like not a bad way to approach things right now. However, points out that Clidd is not conftown at this point despite lots of people early on saying he is (certainly feels genuine but at the time of 142 Clidd had not yet posted and all we had was the check), this is true and a good point, she may have been the first to make it. Votes Dwlee almost as an OMGUS rather than on the not-terrible case against him. Weird. 247 is also not great. Seems offended at a Dwlee null read which is not unreasonable right now.

3. Dwlee. I don't mean to open up the maths question again as that discussion seems to have settled down, but I think the conclusion was 3/8 the result on him was legit. I go back to my earlier question: Would scum target themselves with a check hoping for a townie check and believing they could ride out a scum check if it came? Yeah, I think they might. Seems more confident in a town!Pooky read than is justified, so if Pooky flips town, Dwlee would be my auto-elim next day (and Dat's 52 comes back to mind -- that is, yeet the quickhammer and contend with Dwlee next day). Seems like a decent enough elim based on the maths from the check alone. If he's town, well... Umlaut did warn us the RNG could play havoc in this game and that feels like bad luck.

More coming, don't want to wall...

[Pavowski]

Other thoughts.

Dat feels town to me, I think they're too convinced pooky is obv scum but it's not entirely unfounded. If pooky is scum I don't think this is a bus, busing doesn't make a lot of sense anyway with no night kill.

Infinity is maybe oversold on a Dwlee guilty but seems to be backing off from that. Town pings.

I'm having the hardest time with MC. Staying at null for now but I want to reread again.

Clidd is the beneficiary of an innocent check and feels pretty genuine. Could be wolfing but just doesn't feel that way to me.

I need to vote. Anti-walling this to do that...

[Pavowski]

if Pooky flips town, Dwlee would be my auto-elim next day

This is scum

That was a misprint, I meant to say if pooky flips scum.

[Pavowski]

Mmm that makes more sense okay. Still think you're scum but it's not as clear

Yeah as written that was a garbage take, that's my bad. Too much typing and doing some of it on mobile now

[Pavowski]

It's between arc, Dwlee, and pooky for me right now as I said earlier.

I have mitigating factors to diffuse my suspicions on the others that I don't have for Arc.

VOTE: arcangel

Pedit: how do you justify clidd in that top 3?

[Pavowski]

i am unsure whether to go with "derp clear, angel is confirmed town" or "cognitive load making angel not get the joke, she's confirmed scum" because lmfao.

also "daitsy", really?

Well that's e-1, and I can't tell if arc didn't read the setup or is pretending not to have.

^

[Pavowski]

It's between arc, Dwlee, and pooky for me right now as I said earlier.

I have mitigating factors to diffuse my suspicions on the others that I don't have for Arc.

VOTE: arcangel

Pedit: how do you justify clidd in that top 3?

His reasons to call me scum seems scum motivated. What are your mitigating factors on others?

Given in 271, I'm trying to figure out how to distill them down further but I'm not sure if I can. Bear in mind I mistyped in 271 addressing Dwlee, it's cleared up in 275.

[Pavowski]

And there is a specific thing I've been expecting you to say or at least suggest here that I 100% town!you would think to say.

For the record I hate this argument in all its forms. Like "there's this magic thing you could say that would convince me, but because you haven't said it you're scum". NAI to me for Dwlee or for Pooky, but I don't think it's a fair argument.

Clidd what sounds fake about MC?

I don't love the Pooky flailing but it fits with my read of the slot as "chaotic". Not feeling the AtE though

Arc isn't doing much to move the needle and I still don't see why she thinks Clidd makes sense as an elim today

[Pavowski]

Why?

The guilty

Using this to justify not voting with him is a problem though, right? I mean I know you did the math -- 3/8 chance of guilty right? -- but that implies a better chance he's actually innocent

The checks are designed to be a mixed bag and you admit in 417 his behavior has you leaning town

[Pavowski]

Sorry for getting worked up but I feel like I've gone over this quite a bit

I was poorly remembering 49 and 90 for that math, I'm not sure I see where you said it was 70, but that's my bad if you did

[Pavowski]

That being said I should probably stay out of the discussion of all maths, I was a Fine Arts major after all

[Pavowski]

3/16 * 5/8 / (3/8) = 5/16

This is the probability that someone is town given a guilty. The probability that they're scum is 11/16 which is about 69%

so i googled the thing, did the math myself, had different numbers, but somehow also got to 11/16 so i guess

the reason why i don't want to focus solely on "math" here is because i keep thinking of a secret hitler game i modded this last marathon. the game was steadily going towards a liberal (town) victory, and then there were two liberal governments that played fascist policies, and the game descended into chaos, because the most townread players passed fascist cards, and the only way for that to not have happened if they were town was if there were 6 fascist cards in the deck in a row. they calculated the odds of that happening, ~9%. so there must be a deepwolf. all while i was staring at the random.org rand that spat out 6 fascist cards in a row. town promptly lost that game.

i can agree that angel doesn't seem like a likely pooky partner (though i'd have to recheck if she had any other options, or if that vote was a "fuck, my other suspects are town, i have to bus here" - but that would mean she was consciously faking not knowing about the setup and voting pooky based on that, which ehh why did she not unvote pooky then?)

uuugh my head hurts. is something like mc/pooky/pav viable? maybe it is? i want to be confident on infy!town but i don't actually know the extent of her scumrange which is annoying. something rings wrong about her focusing so hard on that guilty but i feel like everyone in this game has said/done scummy shit

except for clidd, he's probably scum because he's done no scummy shit and the world hates me

This is why I'm keeping an eye on Clidd; because I have zero actual reasons to

(although I highly approve all the Sherlock imagery)

[Pavowski]

Basically TvS confirmed between Pooky and Datisi.

I agree with this statement 100%

just a heads up, i'm probably gonna be around less than usual today, my mental state is Not Great. will still check in here and there, but don't expect much.

mc's absence, especially when he's posting around elsewhere on-site, is concerning, to say the least

. but my issue is that i kinda don't think that pooky busses mc there? like, based on nothing but the knowledge that he "never bussed in his life" or what was it that he usually says. so either that read is wrong, he's breaking his lifelong meta just for this one game, or i'm reading one the "obvscums" wrong. and uh, no enjoying either of those scenarios.

i guess there's not really much to do but wait for his return, so. cheers. let me know if i am needed.

I don't love digging into meta but that does seem telling, you'd hope town would be in the thread helping to figure this thing out

Infinity makes a lot of sense as MC's partner imo.

Could you give your thoughts on this for us slow kids in the back of the class?

[Pavowski]

Is psychology your subject?

Nope, English and Theatre. What can I say, I'm a word nerd. I did take several psych classes though

[Pavowski]

Could you give your thoughts on this for us slow kids in the back of the class?

Oh right I forgot to talk about this. MC and Infinity are both positioning themselves around this "Dwlee or Pooky should be the elim" vibe. Infinity seems to lightly distance at times, saying MC seems scummy but not really commiting to anything solid on the slot. Makes me feel like there is equity in them being scum together.

Thanks for that.

I'm still trying to make up my mind on MC. I don't love the OMGUS vote from MC on Pooky, but I still think Pooky could be scum. Would scum be crossvoting here? I'm not sure they can both be.

[Pavowski]

In post 446, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:
MC/Datisi and then Pav or Angel
this game is over lets go go go


Or you!! I am okay with your elimination.

Wait, are you saying you agree with his list -- but it's missing Pooky?

Or are you saying his list is garbage because he's scum?

[Pavowski]

In post 446, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:
MC/Datisi and then Pav or Angel
this game is over lets go go go

Or you!! I am okay with your elimination.

Wait, are you saying you agree with his list -- but it's missing Pooky?

Or are you saying his list is garbage because he's scum?

EBWOP, that did not post cleanly, sorry

[Pavowski]

I think MC and Pooky are both good options

Pooky is kinda obvious choice for the quickhammer but I don't like obvious choices unless they're ... well, obvious obvious

Literally everyone is piling on me for no reason

VOTE: MurderCatto

I'll take a shower for you clidd

God this is so freaking bad dude

VOTE: Pooky

I'm am seriously not getting limed today over dwlee/pooky

Yeah, I think he's flailing.

VOTE: Murdercat

[Pavowski]

That's E-1 to be clear

[Pavowski]

Thanks for clarifying that. So do you scum read dwlee?

I guess so

Don't let her twist your arm or anything?

[Pavowski]

Declares intent but "I'll let them make their case"

Hammers 2 hours later = /

Do not like

[Pavowski]

Online =/= posting, yikes

There were all of 3 posts in between

[Pavowski]

Well what the hell do we do with that lol

I'm gonna shut my Fine Arts major up and wait for the maths people to break down what that means combined with the d1 check

[Pavowski]

Repeating the check denies us the chance to get any new information on any other players though, which is prob good for scum

If scum!Dwlee was confident he was a townread why not check himself again?

The fact his alignment flipped in this check means *something*, doesn't it?

[Pavowski]

I'm kinda done with math, it becomes more of a mindgame once scum know how people will be viewing the checks. I'm comfortable saying the chance that scum!dwlee would put themselves in the list again is very low.

530 was a response to this, you dudes are posting fast

[Pavowski]

VOTE: angel

brain still scrambled from the weekend. actual effort coming from me tonight, if i'm still alive. agreed this likely means clidd/dwlee are t/t.

Fine you want to play this game. Lets go!

VOTE: Datisi

[Pavowski]

Vote Count 2.5 (final)

MURDERCAT

(5): Dwlee99, PookyTheMagicalBear, clidd,

Pavowsk

i, ArcAngel9

PookyTheMagicalBear

(2):

Infinity 324

, MURDERCAT

Not voting

(1):

Datisi

With 8 alive, it takes 5 votes to launch.

The reason why i think we should lynch Datisi (red)

or my 2nd suspects (orange)

Datisi didn't get to vote because of your hammer lol

[Pavowski]

Infinity I'm first of all trying to make sense of Arcangel mostly not saying a lot all day and then coming in with a hard push + walls out the gate on d2.

I was townreading Dat at end of day yesterday but I kinda want to give this some time to digest.

Still finding Angel scummy though and the 2 hour intent + nah never mind I'm just gonna hammer is sticking with me

[Pavowski]

In my head I'm still trying to create a world where pooky is scum, would he bus if a bunch of people knew his meta of not bussing? Probably not still

Pav what are your thoughts

Sorry, I answered as if you were asking in general.

If you're asking on the Pooky question in particular I don't know Pooky before this game so I can't really make a meta read on that

[Pavowski]

And does arc go way over the top D1 to be completely clueless of how the setup works?

Ignorance of the setup =/= innocent, people can and do jump into games without reading the full details of the setup.

@ArcAngel9

Do you have something to say? dwlee'll seal your fate here

I am not scum. Anyone who played with me can tell that i am town.

Lynch Datisi tomorrow!

This is really not much of a defense and pings town, I dunno that it wipes out all the scumpings though, and Arc is definitely my top scum read right now

[Pavowski]

Also I'd like Pooky and Pav to give more thoughts before I end day here.

Oh, hi

[Pavowski]

I was re-reading the last 24 hours, you asked for top 3 scum:

Right now probably

Arc
Pooky
Infinity

Arc being the top, the other two in no particular order

But I can't shake this feeling that Dwlee could still be scum too. Infinity said yesterday it was unlikely you were self-checking but I'm not so sure, I haven't done a deep think on the logic of the checks to settle the matter though

[Pavowski]

Sorry that should read D2. If scum she would have had to see her team talking about who to pick to reveal the next day, right?

Are you talking about her ignorance of the setup?

[Pavowski]

Okay, let me explain the thinking on Dwlee a little bit since you don't like me holding a little suspicion on you:

I'm gonna do this without maths, too, because while I understand the basic probabilities I can't vouch for my ability to correctly compound them.

In every statement, one prong is true, the other is random. So the truth (or falsity) of one does not actually impact the truth (or falsity) of the other (it's not a true "this is true OR this is true" -- one statement being true does not preclude the other statement's truth).

So, check 1 = Dwlee is guilty OR Clidd is innocent
Means EITHER Clidd is innocent and the mod rolled the dice on Dwlee's guilty, OR Dwlee is guilty and the mod rolled the dice on Clidd's innocent

And check 2 = Dwlee is innocent OR Clidd is innocent
Means EITHER Clidd is innocent and the mod rolled the dice on Dwlee's innocent, OR Dwlee is innocent and the mod rolled the dice on Clidd's innocent

Put those two statements together and Dwlee has clearly been on the dice-roll side of the equation at least once, since his result changed, so ... Clidd is confirmed innocent

If there's a clear on Dwlee given those parameters I need it explained to me.

That's why I'm not willing to rule out Dwlee as an elim

[Pavowski]

I was pretty clear I don't seriously scumread you but I can't call you conf town. I agree, you are likely town.

I find it pretty interesting you want to turn around and vote me just because I pointed out that you're not, in fact, conf town like you would like us to assume

Look at that from the other side, if you're scum then mafia is in autowin if we don't lim between Clidd and you.

Town!Dwlee is not an assumption I'm ready to make.

[Pavowski]

I am struggling to picture a world in which Datisi and Pooky are teamed up, but I think the vote to take today is the easier one.

Pooky I guess

VOTE: pavowski

I was already prepared to vote this slot today for the general wishy-washiness of the last couple days, and this feels the same, "eh, I guess that slot is towny so I'll vote over here"

VOTE: Infinity

[Pavowski]

Just letting you guys know, I'm on a mini v/la until tomorrow with an overnight trip. I'll still be reading but probably not posting much as I'll be on mobile, but I don't really see my vote moving barring anything unforeseen.

[Pavowski]

I know pooky can't wait to quick yeet me but I'm just in from a long drive and need to get some dinner down my neck so pls don't make with the voting right away

[Pavowski]

This is the part where I'm frustrated I didn't get to follow the thread as it went down =\

pooky would you agree to a Blood Pact of yeeting both infy and pav and then yeeting the two of us if game not end

do you trust in the dwlee

I wish I'd had the chance to see this and think about it yesterday because it's now pretty obvious Pooky and Dat are trying to set me up as a low-effort elim today.

Pooky is all set to vote me yesterday until Dwlee decides to switch to Infinity in 685, and then he jumps, just clearly following Clidd and Dwlee's lead to get the lim.

Then I look back at Dat's ISO where he RVS's Pooky d1 and quick votes Pooky d2 and there's a whole back and forth where he's trying to make up his mind about Pooky when Pooky is never really the subject of much suspicion after his lolhammer on d1. By 563 Dat is townreading Pooky while still posting these "haha I still sus you kinda" weirdnesses.

Meanwhile I've been in pretty much everybody's PoE for a day or two already and Datisi has been basically clean, so this is a pretty easy play. (They've already seen Dw was ready to vote me yesterday)

I was all set to pull an Angel today and say "sure, yeet me today as long as you get Pooky tomorrow", but now that Inf has flipped town that one doesn't work today =\

[Pavowski]

Do you actually have an answer to any of that?

[Pavowski]

answer to what

Votehopping yesterday for starters

[Pavowski]

A lot happened while I was cooking dinner but I see Dats/Pooky coming back around to their plan to lim me

Pooky is pretending like he's actually going to vote Dat here when the chips are down

Dats trying to keep Dwlee as an option if they can't get me gone

It all looks pretty good, they fooled me until there was no other way for it to be.

[Pavowski]

Why did you stop being paranoid of me?

I was entertaining the mathematical possibility that it could be you, even though that felt remote by the 3rd check

By the 4th check it's even more remote, though I guess it's still possible. The only thing that would make you 100% legit is a Clidd guilty in those checks. But you still feel towny as hell and I've basically conceded that if in fact you're scum in this situation then it's already a town loss

[Pavowski]

he's shutting up and trying to not get attention on him while pooky is negotiating

Nah, I just fully expect you and Pooky to pick apart everything I say so you can justify getting rid of me

[Pavowski]

Can you try to convince me of the Pooky/dats team?

Here's this tidbit following their "fight" on pages 5 and 6.

im fine with being elimmed here but i wont advocate datisi follows me tomm cuz i dont want to get blamed if he's actually town.

Like these two have held every position under the sun in regards to each other but there, where Pooky was up against the wall for the majority of d2, he throws out this "don't go after Datisi" take while Dat is getting townread.

Then you jump ahead to recent pages they're all chummy "haha wouldn't it be funny if we were a team"

it would be so lit if we actually were scum together

one day pooky, one day

And then the pact to get me after Infinity when we're down to 5 and a miselim means a town loss, which they set up yesterday.

I mean I guess it helps that I'm on the receiving end of the ploy here but it certainly fits from where I sit

[Pavowski]

Okay but datisi also said she wanted infinity eliminated before you yesterday. Why does she do that if you're not a team? Datisi also feel free to answer this.

Pronouns and "you" have me confused on what you're asking

Who is the team in this case?

[Pavowski]

Only 1 person is actually entertaining the scum!Dwlee position right now Pooky

[Pavowski]

I am struggling to picture a world in which Datisi and Pooky are teamed up, but I think the vote to take today is the easier one.

Pooky I guess

VOTE: pavowski

I was already prepared to vote this slot today for the general wishy-washiness of the last couple days, and this feels the same, "eh, I guess that slot is towny so I'll vote over here"

VOTE: Infinity

and like, this is the post where pav agreed to the "pact", there's no thought of who benefits form it, just a bland "yeah i can't really see that team, sure".

Where do you see me agreeing to any kind of pact? I'm pointing out that Infinity's response is weak, I don't say anything about future votes

The pact I'm talking about is the one that involved you and Pooky and a fire extinguisher

[Pavowski]

Because I honestly don't care which of you two we vote for and any vote I make will just be used by the victim to say "see, that's scum voting me"

[Pavowski]

i dunno, i didn't feel like it.

and pav is trying to tell pooky that i'm scummy even though he just said how he's sure we're partners because...? that makes sense...?

VOTE: pav

if there is any chance left in the universe that this is actually pooky/dwlee, i hope to fuck, because that would truly be a fitting ending

I mean there it is

[Pavowski]

At the time, I didn't see you as a team. I don't see the problem with me saying that at the time, I've been saying from the start today that I didn't think you were teamed. But now that you are aligned against me, it's pretty hard for me to not conclude that you are teamed

You and Pooky are voting me right now, kinda says it all

[Pavowski]

Prod received, I see I'm hammered

Sorry Umlaut I was kinda waitin for Ythan to get caught up, oh well

[Pavowski]

Regarding the setup, I think scum needs a night kill, or maybe even just a single night kill, to have a better shot.

Re: the checks, it's a neat concept but once we had conftowned clidd it didn't make sense to pick different targets as we'd just risk doing the same. Maybe make the checks random while needing up the scum side to make things more interesting? I dunno, I'm still fairly new to this stuff.

[Pavowski]

Needing = beefing, hooray for typing on mobile