Micro 1020: To Tell the Truth [Game over]

[clidd]

Spoiler:

T3 was launched.

What were they?

Townie

Day 2 will dawn in (expired on 2021-07-08 05:00:00).

Dwlee99 is

guilty

or clidd is

innocent

.

---

Day 2

Vote Count 2.0

Not voting

(8): MURDERCAT, Infinity 324, Dwlee99, Pavowski, ArcAngel9, Datisi, PookyTheMagicalBear, clidd

With 8 alive, it takes 5 votes to launch.

The day will end in (expired on 2021-07-15 05:00:00).

[clidd]

Townpings on Datisi and Pavowski.

Vaguely good impression of Infinity, but I would probably classify her as null-town.

Scumpings on Pooky and Arc.

Murdercat and Dwlee are null.

pedit: Hallo. Such a hemorrhagic pleasure to be here (as always).

[clidd]

@Pooky

VOTE: PookyTheMagicalBear

I have two questions:

106 - Why scum!Datisi ''planning the push'' vs town!you would be more likely than town!Datisi finding your hammer questionable/scummy? I mean, you haven't tried to meaningfully engage with T3 (before the final vote) and you haven't given any advance notice that you were going to hammer. Just trying to understand your process here.

113 - Why is Infinity town to you?

@Arc

(142) - Why is 52 a ''fake response'' to you?

What are your reads on everyone rn? (town/scum/null/etc - if so, why)

[clidd]

I think that there's more scum than town motivation for quick-hammering, but that's not the only point that pings me about Pooky. I felt a bit of bad faith in his approach to Datisi, in the sense that he didn't seem to rationalize internally in both the town!Datisi and scum!Datisi scenarios to infer which one was more likely. Instead, he automatically jumped to the conclusion that Datisi would be setting a trap for him at the end of D1 to trigger on D2 and re-reading the last day's events that's not how Datisi's posts reflect to me.

[clidd]

Maybe it's Pooky + Arc + Dwlee.

[clidd]

Maybe it's Pooky + Arc + Dwlee.

is it bad that i have like, this exact team as my current hero solve?

hey clidd, glad to see you. can you tell me what gives you townpings on me and pav?

also i'm not in a great mood tonight which is making me be very demotivated for mafia so i'm probably gonna peace out for the night and try again after getting some sleep.

I don't expect to be correct about this (mafia is a difficult game), but with current impressions, it's the solve that makes the most sense.

The townpings on you were mostly because of the way Pooky interacted with you (which sounded like TvS, but with Pooky being the scum side). Regarding Pav, it's basically because he's a newbie (not an alt) and I've noticed his interaction with the game to be more relaxed than I'd expect from scum!newbie (if this were his first scumgame), but it's quite possible that I could be wrong in this read. Regardless, Arc fits as more scummy to me than he does in the solve above, so I wouldn't care much if the town!he thesis is correct even though I'm using a bad assessment to come to that conclusion.

It's fine, I hope you'll get better later (good night).

[clidd]

Maybe it's Pooky + Arc + Dwlee.

If we agree on arc then let's go there?

I want to talk to Pooky first. Depending on whether my read on him is right or not, the rest of my reads can change (and my vote too).

[clidd]

@Dwlee

If Pooky is town, his conversation with Datisi takes another format (and possibly another interpretation), and the pre-hammer reactions/interactions also have another meaning. Maybe I'll get other scumreads (as well as other townreads/nulls) or not. In other words, I would need to review all my current reads (and that would include Arc).

Obviously this process wouldn't be necessary if I simply crossed Pooky off the potential scum list, but I always like to review it completely (to try to get more read accuracy). It might not make a lot of sense explaining it, but that's one of the ways of scumhunting I have.

[clidd]

Your answers are meh, Pooky.

[clidd]

Your answers are meh, Pooky.

they're the truth!

You're more than capable to lie in an organic way with few words.

Which is why I want you to try to expand your thinking further (with bigger words, if you know what I mean).

[clidd]

I know you aren't working, of course, this is game, but it's not like I can *read* your mind to see that you're saying the truth.

[clidd]

And you didn't offer a satisfactory explanation for ''why you considered the scum!Datisi scenario more likely than town!Datisi''.

Even assuming that town!Datisi knows your scumgame, it's not guaranteed that scum!you couldn't change your play to get out of expectations (like a hammer on page 2, for example), especially if scum!you were aware that town!Datisi wouldn't be expecting this attitude from scum!you. I don't see how you reached the conclusion of scum!Datisi strongly and ruled out the possibilities of town!Datisi being inclined to push you (especially considering that, in this context, town!Datisi would have the same or even more motivation to push you than scum!Datisi).

[clidd]

This doesn't necessarily make you scum, but it raises doubts about the integrity of your read.

It's still possible that town!you simply forgot to balance town!Datisi as a possibility before concluding anything (assuming confbias), but given current impressions, the scum!you scenario distorting a rationale to formulate a false read is more likely for me.

[clidd]

More likely but not absolute, I can still re-evaluate (by the way).

[clidd]

im fine with being elimmed here but i wont advocate datisi follows me tomm cuz i dont want to get blamed if he's actually town.

Do you have a solve in mind? (with and without scum!Datisi).

[clidd]

Dwlee, how sure (%) are you on MC being scum?

[clidd]

I agree about the singular focus that MC is giving to only one read (and neglecting the scumhunt of other slots), but I don't think it's enough for "90%" of sure that he's scum. I also disagree on the possibility of TvT between Pooky and Datisi - they're clearly TvS or (assuming good theater) SvS imo.

If you had to choose, who would you pick for scum between Arc and Pav (by PoE).

[clidd]

I forgot the "?", but you probably understand it's a question ^

[clidd]

@Murdercat

What are your reads besides Dwlee?

[clidd]

Sorry I haven't been in the thread much; I had a frustrating RL incident and I'm too tired to use my brain the way I should. I'll look with fresh eyes in the morning.

You've had a chance to post at least once here in the last few hours, but I'll take your word for it.

When you get back, I'd appreciate your feedback on the players: MC/Pooky/Arc.

[clidd]

228/229 are directed to Dwlee.

[clidd]

Thanks for replying ^

Maybe it could be something like Pooky/Arc/MC?

Not sure if scum!MC is a thing here, but if you're correct(as town), the solve above is what I would've in mind.

[clidd]

Why don't you think Pooky is scum here? is it the fight between him and Datisi or there is some other reason? (@Dwlee)

[clidd]

I'm skeptical of Pooky's reactions and I don't think he was genuine in his posting. Datisi had valid reasons to suspect him and all the discussion that developed from that point on seemed to me very much to have been driven by Pooky's disproportionate reaction than scum!Datisi wanting to capitalize on town!Pooky's error, in a way that felt more scum!Pooky trying to get something out of that 1v1 than town!Pooky with paranoia that Datisi was scum for not reading him correctly.

[clidd]

When asked about these points, he resorted to the shallow posting and did not satisfactorily explain what was going on in his head at that period of time, nor did he expand any other additional thoughts (that could be associated with a town mentality or something to help read him).

[clidd]

If I'm wrong, however, and he's town, I'm not sure how exactly I'm supposed to come to this conclusion since nothing Pooky's demonstrated is outside his scum range

[clidd]

I mean, I don't see what Pooky posted here that he wouldn't post as scum:

Spoiler:

if i was in the scum pt coordinating with my homie d-lee to quick-hammer T3 on Page 2,

I'd be like, "let's vote him at the exact same time" and then we can pretend it's an accident

and then we'd be on discord counting down like nerds.

you cant seriously think I'd be an incompetent buffoon

113 - Why is Infinity town to you?

infinity is in her town!meta

i mean you know what im talking about so why are u even asking me this

106 - Why scum!Datisi ''planning the push'' vs town!you would be more likely than town!Datisi finding your hammer questionable/scummy? I mean, you haven't tried to meaningfully engage with T3 (before the final vote) and you haven't given any advance notice that you were going to hammer. Just trying to understand your process here.

cuz he knows scum me doesnt quickhammer on page 2

I think that there's more scum than town motivation for quick-hammering, but that's not the only point that pings me about Pooky. I felt a bit of bad faith in his approach to Datisi, in the sense that he didn't seem to rationalize internally in both the town!Datisi and scum!Datisi scenarios to infer which one was more likely. Instead, he automatically jumped to the conclusion that Datisi would be setting a trap for him at the end of D1 to trigger on D2 and re-reading the last day's events that's not how Datisi's posts reflect to me.

it's not a trap it's a progression break.

how is it a trap what r u even talking about?

Pooky who are the 3 scum

r u trying to get me to miss so someone else gets mad at me?

like this game isn't elim 3 scum, it's elim 1 person at a time.

theres no way datisi goes from srs vote t3 to wow t3 is town lets kill pooky in like 5 minutes.

Your answers are meh, Pooky.

they're the truth!

I'm trying to figure out who the third scum is

why would scum!me help you figure it out dude?

im fine with being elimmed here but i wont advocate datisi follows me tomm cuz i dont want to get blamed if he's actually town.

why would scum!me help you figure it out dude?

Well the more content you make the easier it is regardless

!?!?

you think im scum

why do you think scum me would help you solve the game?

what kind of crackpot answer is this?

dlee i dont know why even try sometimes

[clidd]

But, fine, let's presume they're both town (and town!you as real).

Our PoE would probably have coasting slots like Arc/Pav and one of MC/Infinity.

This would imply that scum has low game influence and town is basically destroying itself (which is like, meh, boring and not *very* likely tbh). Can be likely if you believe in "easy" games, but I kind of don't believe in this scenario. At least not until some new information convinces me that the basis of my reads is wrong (and makes me re-evaluate) what, in this context, would the TvS theory between Datisi and Pooky to be shown as incorrect.

[clidd]

Hum, alright. Fair if it's your inner thinking, but I'm having trouble empathizing with this read.

[clidd]

I can be wrong, but the info + impressions I have at the moment point to scum!Pooky.

[clidd]

Well, that's all for now. I'll get some sleep.

[clidd]

@Datisi

It was because of the way the discussion went, but maybe I exaggerated about the secondary SvS hypothesis. I wouldn't say it"s impossible to be TvT, but I do think that TvS is more likely to me atm.

[clidd]

And assuming a Pooky townflip, it's not like you would automatically be scum (if that thought crossed your mind). I will re-evaluate, we will talk and from that point I would see if TvT really is the case or not.

[clidd]

But my expectation is a scumflip from Pooky given the current posting.

[clidd]

VOTE: Arc

Good vote btw.

[clidd]

259 and 260 are directed to Datisi (extension of 258)

[clidd]

@Arc

I don't see a problem with having Dwlee as null by play.

[clidd]

I could vote Arc here too, her last post was weird-scummy.

[clidd]

Still, I'd like to figure out Pooky first.

[clidd]

@Datisi

Besides me, Infinity and Pooky, what do you think about the others?

[clidd]

Actually, Dwlee is a townlean now.

[clidd]

My mind is like:

{Me / Dwlee / Datisi} -> Town
{Infinity} -> Maybe town
{Pav /Arc / Pooky / MC} -> Scum/PoE

Not much different from 250

[clidd]

My initial townping on Pav dissipated over time (which is why he's PoE now) ^

[clidd]

@Pooky

I kind of need a towntell from you or something to make me know that you're town (if you're town).

[clidd]

It feels like she's purposefully calling attention to herself negatively, but I don't see a scum motivation to "self-sacrifice" since mafia doesn't have a NK to use.

[clidd]

Me being in her scumpool is the first thing that scum!she would try to avoid it, since gamestate + mech points to town!clidd (and scum!she would need to play according to that).

But, meh, I don't intend to overthink it. She's like number 2 in my concept of preference for elim (after Pooky).

[clidd]

@ArcAngel

Do you have any reads outside of 278?

Like who you're townreading/nulls etc.

[clidd]

Also, @Pav @Datisi

Thanks for responding. I'm available for questions as well (if you have any questions for me)

[clidd]

I don't know her level of understanding in relation to English, but in my experience (as a non-native) I had difficulty understanding some setups when I started playing on the forum. Maybe it's her case, but meh, being "confused" can happen as scum too (and she's not a newbie).

[clidd]

[clidd]

Ok, you're on E-1 Pooky.

Do you have something to say?

[clidd]

Hum.

[clidd]

No, not buying. Sorry.

[clidd]

Hi guys what if we killed arc then MC then we can figure out y'all's spat.

Nop.

[clidd]

Still not buying.

[clidd]

So.. Something changed about your read on Datisi, Pooky?

[clidd]

I agree, but is there anything else you want to discuss?

This is the right moment if you any questions or want to talk about a specific slot.

[clidd]

I can't treat you like confscum without seeing the flip so I'm open to hearing if you have anything to say.

[clidd]

Dwlee, can you mention the specific game you witnessed scum!Pooky?

I want to understand what your expectations are regarding his scumgame.

[clidd]

I'll unvote here because we still have time.

UNVOTE: PookyTheMagicalBear

But I'm still leaning towards scum!Pooky more than town!Pooky. It would also be interesting to see more activity in the game before the elim solidifies.

[clidd]

Dogs vs cats mafia. I caught him day one (as a different scum faction) cause he was hyperfocused on one specific player I thought was town and didn't do anything besides saying "this player is evil" despite me debunking his arguments. Okay maybe there's a point to him maybe being scum here when I really think about it but I still stand by the vibe being different.

According to this meta, you should get the impression that Pooky is scum here, unless you have a really good behavioral analytics capacity to differentiate that Pooky is town even though his play is perfectly possible for scum!Pooky.

[clidd]

Hum.. I agree that MC and Angel are scummy (in the sense of lack of solving), but I don't see exactly how Pooky would be any different from that.

[clidd]

I agree, but is there anything else you want to discuss?

This is the right moment if you any questions or want to talk about a specific slot.

well you're wrong about me and unlikely to change your mind so I don't see what else I need to say to you that's not a waste of both of our time?

just deadsheep me tomm and you can blame the loss on me if i'm wrong but if i'm right and you ignore me even after i flip town then whatever im just gonna pretend this game didnt happen instead of getting worked up about it.

I mean, if we lose the game it's going to be a much bigger waste of time than we're using trying to figure out your alignment.

Which is why I'm insisting for you to try to play even though I'm leaning to elim you.

[clidd]

If I'm wrong, you should help me see that I'm wrong, otherwise I will rely on existing information from my impressions of you to make a decision (which will probably be wrong from your point of view since you have your alignment information - something I don't).

[clidd]

@Pooky

Why is trying to understand you = ridiculous?

[clidd]

How do you think I should have reacted to you?

[clidd]

I mean, I've only seen empty accusation/solve posts, but no descriptive thoughts that I judged to be "damn, that's useful to read him".

[clidd]

Clidd who do you think is scummier, MC or Arc?

Not sure, but I suppose right now I'm more suspicious of MC than Arc. At least she tried to say something, but MC is just not doing anything.

[clidd]

MC sounds so fake to me, jesus.

[clidd]

i still feel like there's something wrong with pooky's play today. like, the emotion of "flip me whatever" feels wrong. it feels kind of misplaced? like i understand the feeling of righteousness when a person thinks they're being townie and the people are ganging up on them anyway, but like. pooky did a thing with very very obvious scum!motivation and not a lot of town one. him getting annoyed at being thought of as scum here (coupled with the fact that i objectively think he's not approaching me in good faith and not trying to interact with me sincerely), i kinda think it's supposed to be AtE?

Yep, it's exactly the impression I have.

Scum AtE maybe?

[clidd]

like you're just being downright ridiculous rn and I'm not sure if you're trying to aggravate me into town-telling by screaming at you but I'd rather not go there because I think it's

borderline cheating

.

I also don't like the highlighted part.

Looks lamist and tries to convey the image that he could easily towntell if he wanted to, as well as convey a sense of moralism by exaggerating the classification of the act as "cheating".

[clidd]

also I scream at people when im scum too so nobody should townread me for screaming at someone

also im trying to be zen about this shit so can we keep the unreasonable demands to a minimum thanks?


if you are hellbent on killing me just get it over with and I'll forget this game ever happened ok buddy?

Here too, lamist again ^

[clidd]

@Pav

The sequence: 369, 370, 373 seemed tonally fake to me.

[clidd]

Dwlee is probably correct on his read about MC, but I'm kind of stuck on Pooky rn.

[clidd]

They're likely both scum tbh, but I do think that Pooky is worse comparatively.

pedit: Pooky's slot seems more "dirty" overall.

[clidd]

If we kill MC I'll join you on Pooky tomorrow cause killing MC nets us an extra miselim.

We can't let Pooky escape today for free, unless you convince me that Pooky isn't scum (or that MC is way more likely to be scum than Pooky).

[clidd]

Ok, Pooky is cleaner now, we can start discussing the MC wagon.

[clidd]

I still don't feel very comfortable voting with dwlee

Why?

[clidd]

I'm slowly reconsidering my elim preference.

@MC

What do you think about Dwlee and Pooky voting you?

[clidd]

And by play? ^

[clidd]

I'll drop Infinity from townlean to null.

[clidd]

I'm leaning to vote/elim inside the pool of {Pooky/MC} today. Angel's iso is bad, but she can still be some kind of lhf (compared to the rest). Not sure what I think about Infinity (null) but not seeing an elim there. Pav slightly towny, Dwlee and Datisi are towny (play).

[clidd]

[clidd]

VOTE: MURDERCAT

[clidd]

Both of Pooky and MC are on E-2 now.

[clidd]

Town and scum are probably mixed together in the ''coasting/doing scummy stuff'' pool, which is why the associations don't seem so clear.

It would be easier if everyone demonstrated a significant level of engagement with the game.

[clidd]

So Datisi isn't towny to you? ^

[clidd]

Basically TvS confirmed between Pooky and Datisi.

[clidd]

But we're likely to elim MC today depending on the circumstances (and if he shows up).

[clidd]

One thought that crossed my mind was the possibility that I was being manipulated by a Pooky/Datisi/Dwlee team, but it's too fanciful to speculate that you guys would be able to play in a way that would be totally unassociated.

[clidd]

I may not be the best at scumhunting, but I wouldn't be such a fool to not see signs of this scenario (if it was real).

So, yeah, it's probably just paranoia from my part.

[clidd]

I'm interested to see what MC has to say here.

Absence, in his context, is incriminating, but not quite a hundred percent evidence of alignment.

[clidd]

@Datisi

What do you think about MC's posts?

[clidd]

@Pavowski

Who's more scummy to you rn? (between Pooky and MC)

[clidd]

2 days left, let's put him on E-1 already.

[clidd]

Nice.

[clidd]

It's up to someone now to declare intent ig (and see if MC has any last reactions).

[clidd]

on the other hand, they were last online 7:18am but ignored responding after getting into E1



VOTE: MurderCat

Really? Miss Angel, what you did was very serious.

[clidd]

Well.. Let's wait for the flip.

[clidd]

Not sure if I like or dislike Datisi's posts after hammer, but I'll have a better opinion depending on the gamestate tomorrow (and today's flip info).

[clidd]

There is also the mech guilty/inno thing, so I'm looking forward to it too.

[clidd]

I'm back, reading soon

[clidd]

Ok, I'm leaning Angel as scum.

[clidd]

@Dwlee

Who do you want to elim today?

[clidd]

Wait, where is pooky on your solve Datisi?

[clidd]

Why is Pooky at the end of the PoE?

[clidd]

[clidd]

You have pooky as less likely scum because of buss? not sure if I'm following.

[clidd]

What happened to the 1v1? the hammer?

[clidd]

Actually, forget it. Let's just elim Angel.

I'll take a look at this again based on Angel's flip.

[clidd]

I could be reasoned into almost anything Clidd.

Nah, let's just play simple. Maybe I'm overthinking.

[clidd]

You have pooky as less likely scum because of buss? not sure if I'm following.

pooky pushed mc, mc flipped scum. i don't think pooky would bus mc there. so pooky is probably town.

nothing happened to it. i still think it's scummy as shit. but like. i now think "town!pooky lolhammered" is more likely than "scum!pooky bussed", because one of those statements has to be true.

of course, this could be a 9000 iq plan by pooky to bus mc (bus for the first? time in god knows how long, maybe ever) to then chain up misyeets like that, but idk, i doubt it.

Ok, fine. No problem.

[clidd]

@Dwlee do you agree with an angel elim?

[clidd]

VOTE: ArcAngel9

[clidd]

@ArcAngel9

Do you have something to say? dwlee'll seal your fate here

[clidd]

Pooky I guess

VOTE: pavowski

Why pav?

[clidd]

It is Infinity.

[clidd]

She voted Pav because she's always scum by PoE in a town!Pav world.

[clidd]

Pooky doesn't bus, datisi is towny on play

Well if you're town they both can't be town

Duh

@clidd Doesn't that mean pav is scum fmpov?

Yeah, but it's not organic.

It felt more like you rationalized what town!Infinity would think and robotically applied it here rather than genuinely evaluating the Pooky + Datisi scenario before proceeding.

[clidd]

In the sense that you're totally devoid of paranoia.

[clidd]

But then Datisi is like.. ''Ok, I'll vote there and go afk''.

[clidd]

Does literally anyone want to posit the theory that pooky and Dats are aligned scum?

I think Infinity is scum here. What's your solve?

[clidd]

If we're going to decide, I'll rely more on your decision than mine.

[clidd]

Unless you agree that Infinity is scummy.

[clidd]

Your reasoning is completely plausible to come from scum ^

And I'm not townreading you by tone either.

[clidd]

@Datisi @Pooky @Pav

Hello?

[clidd]

Ok

It's fine, I know you don't enjoy playing as scum. I'll try to be quick to locate your partner.

[clidd]

I'm not making a sole decision. Don't suggest that. I just want input on Dats/Pooky as a team because if they aren't a team we win just limming infinity then pav then pick one of Dats/Pooky then the other.

Ok, my bad.

I'll take a look at Dats/Pooky interactions.

[clidd]

At this point I'm ok with giving pooky the win if he decided to gambit one time here. I'm not going to prove to you I'm town

Also I do like playing as scum, the stress can get to me though.

Hum, sorry, I don't buy.

[clidd]

Eh, @Dwlee are you sure?

[clidd]

Clidd which is more likely, a pav/infinity team or a Pooky/dats team. Feel free to also introduce thinking that say pooky/pav aren't a team or something.

Probably pav/infinity than pooky/dats.

[clidd]

But I'm leaning to vote more Infinity than Pav.

[clidd]

The "I don't care" behavior from Infinity is really scummy, I cannot overlook it.

[clidd]

Pav is like, meh, but I do think that his delay of vote was probably +town in the sense of not realizing that Infinity was always scum by PoE if he didn't believe in the pooky/datisi scumteam.

[clidd]

Infinity, on the other hand, recognized this scenario much more quickly almost as if she had a premeditated thought on it (+scummy).

[clidd]

Clidd being town is probably true just probabilistically and also clidd seems like a player who's gonna obvtown so it makes sense for scum to choose town!clidd.

Dwlee I'm less sure on. In general I think mafia would tend to choose townies to avoid soft guilties, but town!dwlee doesn't seem like a player who would obvtown very much so scum are less likely to choose him for fear of giving town info. Anyone know what their scumgame is like?

And this sounds like tmi ^

I don't think it was possible for anyone to figure ou what kind of planning scum had in mind for the picks that early. The way Infinity said here doesn't seem like a deductive thinking but a reformulation of something that already exists (ie, that she knows).

[clidd]

Spoiler:

If clidd is scum, the chance that he would be named as town is 1/2 * 6/8 = 3/8. My intuition says that the probability he's scum would go down to 3/8 ÷ (3/8 + 3), or 1/9. If someone knows stats they can correct me on that.

If dwlee is town, the probability that they'd be named as scum is 1/2 * 2/8 = 1/8. Again, my intuition says that the probability that they're town is 3/8 ÷ (3/8 + 1) = 3/11. Wow that's really low. I hate it but I think the correct play is to elim dwlee and not think about the wine too much.

VOTE: dwlee

Clidd is conftown and infinity is weird champ for suggesting that we just kill me based on probability. I don't even know if the math is right but I have to double check it.

Is it weird to want to vote someone who has a 73% chance of being scum?

Even if my math is wrong it's very unlikely that a townie gets named as mafia

Each player has a base probability of being town at 6/9

It's 6/8 cause there are 8 players alive.

independent probability of a guilty on a townie (3/8)

This should be independent probability of a guilty yeah?

I got the same answer as you by doing a weighted average is there a simpler way to do it

Anyway

3/16 * 5/8 / (3/8) = 5/16

I'm not gonna include the clidd math because that's too complicated

It's still lower than the probability of pooky being town given a quickhammer given any reasonable inputs. It's funny cause it seems like datisi seems like he's doing a Bayes theorem calculation in his head but if I knew what numbers he was putting into that I'd be pretty appalled. Town can quickhammer too

"town can quickhammer" yeah sure. give me some proof that town!pooky would be that much of an ass to catapult someone 26 posts into the game. alternatively give me proof that pooky actually thought t3 had a decent amount of scum equity. without either of those, pooky is so much more likely to be scum, and this should be a no-brainer

I shouldn't need to come up with a plausible-sounding town motivation to argue that pooky has less than a 70% chance of being scum here. Of course it's bad play as town but like, come on. No play-based info will give someone a 70% chance of being scum, 50% would be generous.

This should be independent probability of a guilty yeah?

Yeah you are right, I started with an assumption that they are town so that makes it weird when I calculate the probability they are town...

The actual calculation including all scenarios and T3 town is actually way harder than I thought and you need to make an assumption about the likelihood scum puts in 0, 1, and 2 townies

Sure, I just calculated the weighted average of dwlee getting a guilty as town and as mafia. I don't know if I did the same thing as you but I still got 3/8. Obviously you could get more precise if you wanted to and made more assumptions but I won't

Everyone has a 3/7 chance of being scum fypov

Fmpov the chance that you are scum is 11/16 but it's actually more because I didn't exclude myself

I'm done with this conversation

And just like MC, she had a focus in the mechanics as well for a good part of her iso, examples ^

[clidd]

Wait guys, I'll be home in 13~14 hours today.

[clidd]

Keep posting.

[clidd]

Ok, let me reread.

[clidd]

Dwlee is always town so scum is 2/3 on Pooky/Datisi/Pav.

[clidd]

We should elim between Datisi and Pooky today.

[clidd]

Probably Pooky today.

[clidd]

What does @Dwelle thinks?

[clidd]

I'll take a look at this tomorrow ^

For now we just elim Pooky.

[clidd]

But ngl, the pav vote seems like a bait if the team is pooky/you.

[clidd]

I don't trust you buddy.

[clidd]

Nothing personal, I just think you're scum here.

[clidd]

AtE doesn't work with me by the way.

[clidd]

Let's see.

VOTE: PookyTheMagicalBear

[clidd]

UNVOTE: PookyTheMagicalBear

Hum, not yet.

[clidd]

Haha, why you're town here, Pooky?

[clidd]

Why not vote Datisi then?

[clidd]

Dude you're both scum, jesus.

[clidd]

Clidd you need to like actually listen to me here please. Pooky is not the lim today.

Who do you want?

[clidd]

Who do you want between pav and dat?

[clidd]

Give me more time to think then. We don't rush this.

[clidd]

We should elim Dats tbh.

[clidd]

The "Dwlee can be scum" doesn't make sense lol

[clidd]

Fake paranoia, yeah

[clidd]

Let's go Dats first then?

Or you'd like pav ?

[clidd]

Yep, we can

[clidd]

Meh, no, not buying

[clidd]

I'm following dwlee here.

[clidd]

Also, Angel spews you scum Dat (if you forgot)

[clidd]

Hum.

[clidd]

@dwelee

are you there?

[clidd]

The play here seems dats + pooky, but you want pav right?

just say yes and I'll vote.

[clidd]

Dude, I'll just follow your read on pav here honestly

[clidd]

I mean, all three seem scummy in some sense, so /shrug

[clidd]

Boring..

@Pav

Can you towntell or something?

[clidd]

Alright, I'm going to give you a new buddy, Dwlee.

Make good use of it.

[clidd]

I don't think the substitution set the course of the match, but the way in which the setup confirmations occurred (me + Dwlee conftown) made the game quite townsided.

For some reason I also felt my motivation drop drastically over the days, so /shrug.

[clidd]

I understand why it's frustrating for you, but no one is obligated to play a game they're not enjoying and I'm giving clidd the benefit of the doubt that that's why he replaced out.

Yeah, pretty much this.

[clidd]

Hum, If anyone has any problems with my play/replacementt, feel free to send me a pm or avoid future games with me.

I don't see anything related to dishonor, bad faith or bad sportsmanship from my part here.

[clidd]

Clidd, if I enjoy playing with you.

That's why I was disappointed to see you replace out.

Well, sorry, but I couldn't really keep my motivation to a good chemical level to stay in the game.

[clidd]

It's fine, I get it now (and I won't take it personally).

[clidd]

As a solution, I'll police myself better to prevent my mood from interfering with my commitment to future matches (and reserve the replacement option for more critical cases).

[clidd]

And I like playing with you guys too, although I didn't express myself much about it.

[clidd]

Also,

@Dwlee

Thanks for your persistence.

You played for two as I basically stopped playing after a few days, lol.

[clidd]

Tbh, the Infinity miselim was like a punch in the stomach for me (since I was the one who pushed the elim).

[clidd]

Actually, looking back, the tvt between Datisi and Angel is something that I'd probably never see as tvt tbf, so yeah..

Maybe the window to manipulate me was bigger than I thought.

[clidd]

Mafia is hard.

[clidd]

I got mad WIM most of the time so no problem. Hope to see you around more.

Same. I wonder if scum!you has the same wim.

[clidd]

You left me a very nice slot Clidd.

That doesn't normally happen (when I replace out), but luckily I had a mechanical reason to be a townread here without having to townspew much.

[clidd]

I'm never scum

Huum.

You're the deepwolf type then.