FGO: Mafia in the Lostbelt - 2 Game Over

[Servant Lancer]

rider needs to explain himself

[Servant Rider]

I think it's Beast, but I literally just woke up and am not in the mood to explain anything I haven't already done so in a previous post (see 855).

I'm sorry Avenger wasn't scum. I'm bad and couldn't help myself from chasing after the shiny.

[Servant Alter Ego]

he chose Ruler anyway because of the name reveal

sorry, can you explain this part?

how come you're just realizing this stuff now?

Ruler being revealed as Jeanne D'Arc meant that they were definitely good-aligned and a valid vig target for Berserker.

He didn't claim the other parts of his role to me, and I just now saw that he could have made

anyone

good-aligned for the purpose of his NP, making them a vig target.

His rationale for shooting Ruler was because they had hard defended the mafia eliminations on day 1. He didn't consult me so I didn't get to explain to him that mastina was 99% town because of how she had been casing Saber. I was fairly irritated when he told me on day 2.

[Servant Rider]

rider needs to explain himself

Aside from Avenger being overtly scummy to me, what would you like for me to explain?

[Servant Beast]

I spent the night checking my angles.
I can confirm that I was not redirected and my ability landed on Caster. The only universe where caster is scum is one where they show up as inno to a kill investigate. Given Foreigner did not do the kill N1, it had to have been their partner.

So I guess Berserker killed Ruler.
That sucks.

[Servant Beast]

I think it's Beast, but I literally just woke up and am not in the mood to explain anything I haven't already done so in a previous post (see 855).

I'm sorry Avenger wasn't scum. I'm bad and couldn't help myself from chasing after the shiny.

It's not me, see: my entire iso.

[Servant Beast]

Please note the mystery behind multiple investigators early and how my play reflected being an investigative role.
Avenger's role pm explicitly implies the existence of a detective type.

Like how Titus's role explicitly implies there being non-mason neighborhoods in the game.

[Servant Beast]

Explicit implications are kind of an oxymoron.

[Servant Rider]

Avenger's role pm explicitly implies the existence of a detective type.

Yes, but with town-killing roles, this doesn't mean the 'detective' type necessarily has to be town.

[Servant Alter Ego]

I'd like to not get lazy now. I want to continue the work I did overnight of reviewing Rider and Beast. I don't want the game to go to day 5. (I think, aside from mechanics, there are play-based reason to think both Caster and Assassin are town)

[Servant Rider]

New information pending, I'm fine with Caster, Lancer, and Assassin being off the table.

[Servant Lancer]

he chose Ruler anyway because of the name reveal

sorry, can you explain this part?

how come you're just realizing this stuff now?

Ruler being revealed as Jeanne D'Arc meant that they were definitely good-aligned and a valid vig target for Berserker.

He didn't claim the other parts of his role to me, and I just now saw that he could have made

anyone

good-aligned for the purpose of his NP, making them a vig target.

His rationale for shooting Ruler was because they had hard defended the mafia eliminations on day 1. He didn't consult me so I didn't get to explain to him that mastina was 99% town because of how she had been casing Saber. I was fairly irritated when he told me on day 2.

lovely

rider needs to explain himself

Aside from Avenger being overtly scummy to me, what would you like for me to explain?

I mean you were basically the only person trying to prevent Foreigner from being wagoned D2 and insisted that Avenger was scum, which in retrospect seems like the most obvious scum motivation to me since Avenger was town

[Servant Alter Ego]

Did you know Cabd once designed a setup with a town poison healer that had no poisoner role?

[Servant Lancer]

after Avenger's flip I'm basically planning to ignore the setup design as an indicator of alignment

[Servant Beast]

@Caster: just making sure, but you aren't Mrs. Crane yeah?

Assassin from a role perspective I couldn't clear. It seems based off of the scum roles revealed so far there isn't a replication of roles in terms of scum roles. There was a machoizer and a strong man. Assassins I can see just from a thematic stand point getting past a role blocker. However, based on the roles revealed so far if there is a redirector it would have to be the last scum and I'm pretty sure that:
1. A redirector has lower priority than a role blocker so their action would fail even if they redirected caster. 2. The kill would need to be guranteed to come from assassin based on the information we have.

It should be noted that the scum team's NP seems to have been all 4 stars, but unless assassin had an extra boost as part of their own abilities none of their abilities that would have allowed for a boost a NP even a 3* wouldn't have charged by the night they would need to have to get through a role block.

[Servant Beast]

Pretty much the only universe where Assassin is scum is one where they can kill with an innate ability (no NP, or a really low cost NP which I find unlikely) or some sort of passive that alters how abilities effect them.

[Servant Rider]

I mean you were basically the only person trying to prevent Foreigner from being wagoned D2 and insisted that Avenger was scum, which in retrospect seems like the most obvious scum motivation to me since Avenger was town

I feel as though most of this depends on the idea that I have to be scum because I was wrong, and that town cannot be wrong.

I still struggle understanding why things played out the way the did. I feel as though a lot of Avenger's posts were not great, and I struggled seeing scum failing to push a single town-wagon in response to three of their own (and only three of their own, as I'm pretty sure we never wagoned a townie other than Avenger during their gladiate) being wagoned all of Day 1. For me, it made more sense for Foreigner to be the scum-designated counterwagon to two separate scum-wagons rather than scum just letting town wagon all of them. Avenger also gladiated Foreigner in the face of a Moon Cancer elimination, and of the three flipped roles, I felt as though Moon Cancer probably had the strongest role of the three and would've been (at least from a mechanical standpoint) the best teammate to defend as that role has the best opportunity to deal with a mod-confirmed townie from Night 2 onwards, and from my perspective, I thought it was possible Moon Cancer and Foreigner were just involved in a long cross-bus up to that point, so that's why I thought I still thought Avenger could be scum even with a Foreigner flip.

Not to mention Avenger completely flubbed their claim (they only mentioned the miller portion originally and only included the killer part after Beast claimed their detective ability), and some of their reads seemed like they were just thrown out with little to no care or reasoning.

I felt like Avenger was obvscum with all this in mind, but clearly, I was living in my own little wonderland.

[Servant Rider]

and from my perspective, I thought it was possible Moon Cancer and Foreigner were just involved in a long cross-bus up to that point, so that's why I thought I still thought Avenger could be scum even with a Foreigner flip.

This should say Avenger and Foreigner, not Moon Cancer and Foreigner.

[Servant Rider]

Beast, how were your results returned to you regarding Caster and Foreigner?

[Servant Beast]

after Avenger's flip I'm basically planning to ignore the setup design as an indicator of alignment

Why is it that when I want people to ignore set up design they weigh it heavily and then when it could be advantageous for them to weigh it, they just say "well, I'm going to ignore the set up design now"

Also, the scum team had a lot of power. Based on the current town flips, my role fits into the power spectrum. If this is really my role I spent a lot of time making inconveable gambits, clearing shielder for no reason. Being a detective with a tracker/watcher already existing. Pushing at Foreigner immediately for watching/tracking me. Foreigner being clearly informed and plainly stating their interpretation of our back and forth (Lancer and I, I mean) and so on.

I took a lot of risks and made my play a lot more complicated than most would do, at best you could call me inspired scum. I was also pushing at Foreigner, which means that even though I wasn't helping push Moon cancer (who I was wrong on) and Saber (who I was wrong on early and then flipped around based on their claim) that I don't appear at least, to be a super plausible scum candidate.

I at least don't think it's as clear cut as not wanting to consider role stuff because it's fundamentally attached to player's approaches to games.

[Servant Beast]

Beast, how were your results returned to you regarding Caster and Foreigner?

Cabd told me in my notes PT, they used the player's name and then stated whether the player had killed anyone this game. Both were negatives.

I clarified with Cabd over night that he hadn't made an error by naming Caster. (I couldn't have been blocked as an investigative without being informed of it, due to the nature of requiring a result). He said it was intentionally worded that way. So, I wasn't redirected. Pretty much.

[Servant Lancer]

do you know that your action takes place at the very end of the night?

[Servant Beast]

No. But my result was always given as the thread opened up post night.

[Servant Rider]

I feel very strongly that Alter Ego isn't scum this game.

Idk. At this point, I can't say I have an issue with the plan to eliminate Rider + Beast to end the game.

[Servant Assassin]

I semi turned my brain off yesterday because nothing besides avenger made sense as scum to me. None of Rider/Alter/Beast make sense as scum to me today either. And of course, Lancer is town from avenger and Caster is now more strongly confirmed as well per beast.

I think it's important to think about mass-claiming at this point. A lot of information is out there and there's not much else to lose.