FGO: Mafia in the Lostbelt - 2 Game Over


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Post Post #2200 (ISO) » Fri Jul 23, 2021 7:05 pm

Post by Servant Rider »

In post 2199, Servant Assassin wrote:I semi turned my brain off yesterday because nothing besides avenger made sense as scum to me. None of Rider/Alter/Beast make sense as scum to me today either. And of course, Lancer is town from avenger and Caster is now more strongly confirmed as well per beast.

I think it's important to think about mass-claiming at this point. A lot of information is out there and there's not much else to lose.
If that's what people want, I don't mind mass-claiming.

However, the only person I can see being scum right now, barring new information, is Beast.

Anyhow, unless someone has something specific they want to talk about, I'll return after Caster checks in.
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Post Post #2201 (ISO) » Fri Jul 23, 2021 9:40 pm

Post by Servant Caster »

In post 2189, Servant Beast wrote:@Caster: just making sure, but you aren't Mrs. Crane yeah?
I am not Mrs. Crane.

Who is Mrs. Crane?

I performed a night action on Assassin last night, it worked so he is not Ascetic.

Uh I don't really know what to do now except I guess re-read?

I'm going to be really impressed with whoever the last scum is
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Post Post #2202 (ISO) » Fri Jul 23, 2021 9:47 pm

Post by Servant Caster »

In post 2198, Servant Rider wrote:I feel very strongly that Alter Ego isn't scum this game.

Idk. At this point, I can't say I have an issue with the plan to eliminate Rider + Beast to end the game.


I feel very strongly that Alter Ego isn't scum this game.Idk. At this point, I can't say I have an issue with the plan to eliminate Rider + Beast to end the game.
?

I don't understand how you can town-read someone more than yourself?

You have a role pm that states what role you have...
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Post Post #2203 (ISO) » Fri Jul 23, 2021 10:49 pm

Post by Servant Rider »

I just feel very confident in my reads.

Which may seem silly, considering how wrong I was on Avenger, but that's just how it is.

Also, it's not that I believe Alter Ego is more likely to be town than myself (I don't believe I've ever implied this), I just think Beast is the final scum here. I ignored Beast yesterday because I only had space for one scumread, and I just thought Avenger was far more likely to be scum than Beast.
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Post Post #2204 (ISO) » Sat Jul 24, 2021 5:11 am

Post by Servant Alter Ego »

At this point in time, everyone is going to be able to give fairly convincing reasons as to why they're town. It's not going to be easy. Whoever is the last scum has played well while the rest of the team folded. The job, at this point, is going to be going back and trying to find reasons someone fits as the last scum.

I can say, though, that I wouldn't have immediately started pushing the mafia strongman in the master phase, I wouldn't have helped build the Berserker counterwagon to Saber in the master phase, I wouldn't have neigborized the clear Berserker and then spend all of my effort convincing him to wagon mafia and not town, especially Moon Cancer, when several town players were inexplicably willing to give him a pass. I definitely don't kill Berserker last night, cutting off access to the 12 pages of me solving behind the scenes. Basically none of my play makes sense as scum.

I also claimed my abilities to Berserker in the hood. My first skill is a confirmable action that I haven't used, because after 2 scum went down day 1, using it would have been mostly anti-town. There's no way in hell I would have actually trueclaimed this ability to confirmed town as scum, because it makes me accountable for using it, and honestly the ability sounds scummy. I'd just lie and claim something else so that I could actually use it.

Caster, did Berserker tell you at all about my claim after you were cleared? I wish I had a better way of asking this but I don't, really.


I tried looking at interactions from Saber/Foreigner during the last night phase to see if there was anything, and came away with very, very little. There were a few moments that sparked paranoia of Beast for me, though. That's why I want to look at the trajectories of Beast and Rider over the game, see if I can find anything there instead.
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Post Post #2205 (ISO) » Sat Jul 24, 2021 6:27 am

Post by Servant Beast »

Mrs. Crane was the only caster servant that I thought might come away clear in an investigate because she liked clothes, so I thought "maybe she could change her clothes after they got blood on them" Twas' a passing thought.

I'm narrowing my focus to Assassin, Alter, Rider and then need to whittle it down more from there. I'm okay with a mass claim.
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Post Post #2206 (ISO) » Sat Jul 24, 2021 6:29 am

Post by Servant Beast »

Except Lancer and Caster.
They really don't need to claim. It just benefits the scum team I think. I guess it might help, because it might make other roles less plausible. But, I guess what I mean to say is that they should go last and they should feel free to fudge their claims to hold advantage so to speak.
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Post Post #2207 (ISO) » Sat Jul 24, 2021 8:45 am

Post by Servant Beast »

In post 1054, Servant Beast wrote:Is there some reason you're not responding to my posts but pretty much everyone else's? Is it not interesting or worth commenting on?
In post 1057, Servant Beast wrote:That's fine. I'm just wondering if you're working on false associations for later if you get flipped.
In post 1059, Servant Beast wrote:Not really, sometimes people can react in ways that give the game away if you just confront them about it.
I don't really think that happened here. Or at least, it's not obvious.
In post 1922, Servant Beast wrote:
In post 1921, Servant Foreigner wrote:I watch beast, no visits
I don't mean to be rude, but why the fuck would you watch me?
In post 2002, Servant Beast wrote:Foreigner's default into bluster is scummy to me.
In post 2004, Servant Beast wrote:It literally didn't occur to me that that I might've cleared him until half way through the day, lol.
The reason I decided to go after Avenger first is that I thought it reduced the odds of foreigner being scum since it's 50/50 who did the kill.

But then I thought about whether there was a vig who would kill ruler or, (even more impossibly), shielder and I was like, oh shit. I should bring this up.

Then I did.

I'm helping with anti associatives btw. I know it's kinda weird to build a case in self-defense, but I find that pointing things out can help people correctly interpret information even though, obviously, I'm biased.
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Post Post #2208 (ISO) » Sat Jul 24, 2021 8:57 am

Post by Servant Beast »

Mostly right now, besides hunting, I'm thinking about how to achieve two eliminations on the most probable scum without losing an elimination by getting eliminated myself. Pretty much, I want to do the opposite of what Rider is doing, because if I'm wrong again I'd like another shot rather than getting killed for being wrong again. Which results in a sort of blame game or, 'you're responsible for being wrong, so if we lose because I voted you, it's on you"
and yeah, it's on me, from a justice or fairness perspective but from the perspective of win condition it leaves a lot to be desired.

Also, just from a self-case perspective, I've self-cased and Alter has self-cased but Rider just argued that they were wrong and they were being suspected for that, which is slightly different. I'd like Rider to self-case and tbh, for Assassin to self case.

Sometimes I get burnt because I push at people in comfortable positions, but I'm just trying to solve and make sure the corners are clear. So I hope Alter and Assassin do not push back (too) hard for me questioning them.

With that out of the way.

I don't think Alter is cleared. I still think they're town because as mentioned there were decision points where they just defaulted right back onto scum when they had reason not to.

For example, when Lancer was like, "based on what happened with Moon cancer, Foreigner should be cleared" instead of just giggling in my scum PT, I was like, "actually, no" Alter played similarly.

Assassin has intentionally played a certain way. But I feel like they have no results to show for it, which, kind of sucks tbh. I don't think a clear should be relied on here. They require a closer look.

I'm kinda just draft posting today. I'm busy with other stuff.
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Post Post #2209 (ISO) » Sat Jul 24, 2021 8:59 am

Post by Servant Beast »

I do not think that Alter should be cleared for being mean to Foreigner near the end. If that's being weighed. I'm not sure if others are.
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Post Post #2210 (ISO) » Sat Jul 24, 2021 9:26 am

Post by Servant Rider »

In post 2210, Servant Beast wrote:I do not think that Alter should be cleared for being mean to Foreigner near the end. If that's being weighed. I'm not sure if others are.
Idk what you're referring to.
In post 2209, Servant Beast wrote:For example, when Lancer was like, "based on what happened with Moon cancer, Foreigner should be cleared"
instead of just giggling in my scum PT
, I was like, "actually, no" Alter played similarly.
Freudian slip?
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Post Post #2211 (ISO) » Sat Jul 24, 2021 10:19 am

Post by Servant Beast »

1. Freud is a hack.
2. Two, the post was pointing out the contrast. I could have laughed in my scum PT *if* I had a scum PT and had motivation to just either agree or not interrupt an opponent when they were making a mistake. I did interrupt them however.
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Post Post #2212 (ISO) » Sat Jul 24, 2021 10:51 am

Post by Servant Assassin »

Reread again.

I simply cannot reach a conclusion between Rider/Alter/Beast. I can't make myself see any as scum and think it consistent with their play.

So I'm at a loss. I cannot see any avenues of questioning or any of the typical scumhunting maneuvers that are applicable in this scenario.

I am also not willing to debate the clears so far. Caster would have to be a ninja of some sort and I'd have to be a strongman (and avenger would have to not know how to read to negate lancer's clear).
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Post Post #2213 (ISO) » Sat Jul 24, 2021 10:54 am

Post by Servant Assassin »

For me the only way forward is a mass claim. I'm putting my faith in mechanics.

I am happy to start since the rest of my abilities from what I've already claimed are inconsequential.
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Post Post #2214 (ISO) » Sat Jul 24, 2021 11:08 am

Post by Servant Beast »

I would like Rider to claim fully first and then I'm stuck in Alter/Assassin land and don't mind which goes next. Or I can go next after Rider.
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Post Post #2215 (ISO) » Sat Jul 24, 2021 11:16 am

Post by Servant Rider »

My noble phantasm allows me to check two players and learn whether at least one of the two players has access to a private topic.

I know the exact number of 'good-aligned' players that exist in this game. If I target a 'good-aligned' player with my noble phantasm, I gain an additional and separate result that pertains specifically to that player.

I have a two shot bulletproof I can activate during the day that lasts for three night phases.

I have a lightning rod ability I can activate at night that causes all investigative actions to target me. I earn one charge for my noble phantasm for each ability that is manipulated in this way.

I would like Beast to claim next.
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Post Post #2216 (ISO) » Sat Jul 24, 2021 11:30 am

Post by Servant Rider »

In post 2207, Servant Beast wrote:Except Lancer and Caster.
They really don't need to claim. It just benefits the scum team I think. I guess it might help, because it might make other roles less plausible. But, I guess what I mean to say is that they should go last and they should feel free to fudge their claims to hold advantage so to speak.
In post 2209, Servant Beast wrote:Mostly right now, besides hunting, I'm thinking about how to achieve two eliminations on the most probable scum without losing an elimination by getting eliminated myself. Pretty much, I want to do the opposite of what Rider is doing, because if I'm wrong again I'd like another shot rather than getting killed for being wrong again. Which results in a sort of blame game or, 'you're responsible for being wrong, so if we lose because I voted you, it's on you"
and yeah, it's on me, from a justice or fairness perspective but from the perspective of win condition it leaves a lot to be desired.

Also, just from a self-case perspective, I've self-cased and Alter has self-cased but Rider just argued that they were wrong and they were being suspected for that, which is slightly different. I'd like Rider to self-case and tbh, for Assassin to self case.

Sometimes I get burnt because I push at people in comfortable positions, but I'm just trying to solve and make sure the corners are clear. So I hope Alter and Assassin do not push back (too) hard for me questioning them.

With that out of the way.

I don't think Alter is cleared. I still think they're town because as mentioned there were decision points where they just defaulted right back onto scum when they had reason not to.

For example, when Lancer was like, "based on what happened with Moon cancer, Foreigner should be cleared" instead of just giggling in my scum PT, I was like, "actually, no" Alter played similarly.

Assassin has intentionally played a certain way. But I feel like they have no results to show for it, which, kind of sucks tbh. I don't think a clear should be relied on here. They require a closer look.

I'm kinda just draft posting today. I'm busy with other stuff.
These are scummy posts and continue to cement my scumread of this slot.
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Post Post #2217 (ISO) » Sat Jul 24, 2021 11:56 am

Post by Servant Beast »

VOTE: Rider

Is my response to rider's posts. :roll: If you just want to go for surface, least charitable interpretations. I'm just going to automatically assume you're scum phoning it in instead of hunting.

Abilities.
1. Shielder is town. Merlin isn't in the game.
2. I could body guard shielder every night. However, I could not use my two shot investigate at the same time. I was asking abou how their death worked to see if I could revive them or bodyguard them post death, but nope.
3. 2-shot investigate -> Investigated Foreigner N1. Investigated Caster night 2.

My NP is a **** ability, it confirms both players's alignment of the targets I investigated. This is probably to get past any doubts if Investigated a player and got a negative result because they specifically hadn't used their night kill. Based on what I know, I believe the only way for me to use this NP (and it wouldn't tell us much, since I do think Caster, just probably doesn't have an obscure ability to come up clean on an investigate post-kill) is if we no kill. one day.
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Post Post #2218 (ISO) » Sat Jul 24, 2021 11:59 am

Post by Servant Beast »

In post 2216, Servant Rider wrote:My noble phantasm allows me to check two players and learn whether at least one of the two players has access to a private topic.

I know the exact number of 'good-aligned' players that exist in this game. If I target a 'good-aligned' player with my noble phantasm, I gain an additional and separate result that pertains specifically to that player.

I have a two shot bulletproof I can activate during the day that lasts for three night phases.

I have a lightning rod ability I can activate at night that causes all investigative actions to target me. I earn one charge for my noble phantasm for each ability that is manipulated in this way.

I would like Beast to claim next.
...Would scum actually claim this? It's kind of nuts. hmm.

Popcorn to alter.
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Post Post #2219 (ISO) » Sat Jul 24, 2021 12:05 pm

Post by Servant Beast »

I'm not sure that this internal consistency actually makes sense from Rider here. He's pretty strongly doing the 1v1 me thing. Which my first reaction was "Oh, if he doesn't care or has a devil may care attitude he must be town," but that signal strangely clear and self-aware.
There's clear motivation for town to want to kill everybody else but themselves. It's not just a scum thing. It's a very simplistic way of looking at other's play and sends odd signals overall.
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Post Post #2220 (ISO) » Sat Jul 24, 2021 12:10 pm

Post by Servant Beast »

To be clear you have a bullet proof that lasts 3 turns, is used during the day, and is two shot for a total of 6 days of bullet proof protection?

Is there some reason you didn't run for master, didn't use your lightning rod ability, etc?
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Post Post #2221 (ISO) » Sat Jul 24, 2021 12:45 pm

Post by Servant Beast »

This claim is actually an interesting bomb shell.
Could you claim your actions, I noticed you did not and that is problematic.

1. Since the bullet proof is activated during the day phase he could use his lightning rod ability, but my ability wasn't redirected either night.
2. This also creates a seemingly confusing contradiction. I recall Rider not believing my investigation ability. Foreigner also claimed to watch/track me, which would have been redirected to rider and he would have known that too.
3. I might be recalling incorrectly, but didn't they ask me a specific question as to whether my ability said whether the target's name was mentioned? Or was that someone else? this is really interesting. This shows more internal consistency however because it shows that they had been playing toward their role for most of the game. This doesn't necessarily point to town for quite a few reasons however. Other scum also tried to role play their roles consistently from a town POV, specifically saber had tried this. Nobody bought it, but they had tried to follow this and largely didn't lie about their abilities. Riders comments throughout the game follow a similar pattern, I don't think this is scummy without thinking about it further.

However, the question becomes why didn't they jump down my throat earlier? They would have arguably had a guilty or equivalent with my Foreigner check. But didn't do anything with it, if I recall they defended foreigner, but then they flipped scum and this didn't change their mind any. Could you explain further, what was going through your mind throughout the game Rider? From he beginning of the game to the present?
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Post Post #2222 (ISO) » Sat Jul 24, 2021 12:47 pm

Post by Servant Rider »

It's a one-shot ability, that gives me two shots of protection, and expires three night phases after activation.

I didn't use my lightning rod ability on Night 1 in the event Berserker's noble phantasm was an investigative ability as I didn't want to interfere with their action. I didn't use it on Night 2 because there was only one scum left and I didn't see a point in meddling with other player's investigative actions. On Night 3, there weren't enough 'good-aligned' players left for me to warrant usage of my lightning rod ability (and I wasn't sure if there were even going to be any investigative abilities to manipulate anyway).

I didn't run for master because I was busy when the game opened, and I was unsure how useful my Noble Phantasm would be. Other players also wanted it more than me, Assassin claimed a very strong 'cop-like' ability and I didn't see any red flags regarding their play up to the point I voted for them, and later on Berserker seemed fine enough as a selection for master when I realized I wouldn't be active enough to do a good job as town leader at that point in the game and I probably wouldn't of gotten elected at that point even if I wanted it.

I will explain why those posts are scummy after we finish the massclaim.
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Post Post #2223 (ISO) » Sat Jul 24, 2021 12:51 pm

Post by Servant Beast »

Why wouldn't you want to interfere with an investigate to clear yourself? Were you one of the players that cast doubt on there being multiple investigatives? I forgot whether you were one of those players in that camp or not.
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Post Post #2224 (ISO) » Sat Jul 24, 2021 12:54 pm

Post by Servant Beast »

being busy is fair. Your ability would have been quite powerful because you could probably use your noble phantasm twice. It wouldn't have been broken or anything but pretty good, probably.
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