Mini Theme 2217 | Owner's market blitz | Over

[mastina]

Ngl. I'm hardcore struggling to get into this game. I'm having issues getting townreads and scumreads at all. Like, my scumdar is just...*static* right now.

ok not going to lie, i'm in a mood and Alisae's ego has put me right off already.

This is literally the first post that makes me think 'town' and even then it's not town with a heart, it's just weak town vibes.

I will give free townpoints to the first person who can mention something that went wrong in their role PM tho as that happened to me so if it happened to someone else and they can describe it I am instantly masoning them for the rest of the game.

[mastina]

every time i come back from site breaks something like this happens and i question why i even bother

Am getting townvibes here tho!

HEAL: Flea

Gamma might be town, but not sure yet.

[mastina]

Hi Nancy. <3

I'm gonna locktown you right now. Not for any reason mind you, just 'cuz I'm kinda desperate to call

someone

locktown and calling the slots that are pleasant folks I enjoy thoroughly locktown is as good a metric to use as anything else.

So my readslist right now looks something like:

Smoke and Mirrors
Flea the Magician
Mistyx
Gamma Emerald

(literally all other slots)

[mastina]

KittyTacky (4) - Distance, Smoke and Mirrors, Imaginality, Gamma Emerald

So I am treating y'all as conftown.

Beyond that, I am treating MistyX as town. (Flea would be here, too.)

Beyond that, I'm trusting enough in market owner ssbm to be town.

So from that, 6/11 town, including myself 7/11 town, which leaves 2 scum in 4 names: VFP, marcistar, cyrus, and Cupcake Butterfly.

If I had to take a blind guess of blind guesses, it'd be VFP + Cupcake Butterfly but I've got literally zero logic for this.

VOTE: VFP

HEAL: Smoke and Mirrors

[mastina]

went for cop, didn't get it

Yeah I put 200 on the cop and didn't get it.

[mastina]

(I am legit having a hard time getting into this game tho; it is undoubtedly the worst towngame I've had in a very very very long time. I genuinely wouldn't mind being voted out especially if there were an autowin or damn near close to one.)

[mastina]

DON'T SAY YOUR GUESS NOW. JUST KNOW.
ALSO I'M TERRIBLE AT KEEPING THINGS HIDDEN HEHEHEHEHE

Oh if that's the case.

VOTE: Cupcake Butterfly

I don't think this is the toucan's towngame.

[mastina]

(I am legit having a hard time getting into this game tho; it is undoubtedly the worst towngame I've had in a very very very long time. I genuinely wouldn't mind being voted out especially if there were an autowin or damn near close to one.)

By worst towngame, do you mean how you view the town's ability this game, or your ability to navigate it?

My ability to navigate it.

I'm literally deadweight, I'm literally worthless.

I don't have real thoughts, I don't have real reasons, I've barely posted at all so I can't be obvtown either, I don't see how I could look town and I don't see how I can really be helping town.

I can say that I think the wagon on scum D1 was all town--it was not a full 7 elimination but rather a plurality elimination. While it's possible scum forgot about plurality and didn't realize the elimination would go through, I find it more likely that the names on the wagon were all town. This would be good analysis if I were the first one to point it out (I immediately upon the scumflip thought "okay this entire wagon is town"), but by the time I got around to this thread no less than two other people had beaten me to the punch in making that exact conclusion.

I can say that I feel that MistyX is town, but I've legit got nothing to back that, other than just liking MistyX and smiling at their contributions and liking them and thinking the interactions came from town.

I can say that I am trusting the collective townreads on ssbm and buy the choice in items as being a fairly protown approach, but I am also not unique in this with everyone having already said as much pretty much.

I don't have any actual meaningful tangible contribution to give, so I feel worthless. I wasn't on the D1 scum elimination, I've barely posted, I've done just about zero anything. Heck even me calling Flea town was purely me trying hard to force a read off of feelings more than evidence so I don't even really deserve credit for getting that read right.

I AM trying tho, I'm just, not doing as well as I want to.

[mastina]

Btw iso'ing Flea, unless the scumteam is cyrus + someone who wouldn't tell cyrus not to pull such a n00bscum move, I'm thinking Flea was killed because the scumteam thought Flea was either a role or because the scumteam thought Flea was just that obvtown and were threatened by faer. (As far as I can tell, Flea gave suspicion to only cyrus and maybe imaginality. So the possibilities are; either cyrus is scum and killed Flea as the main threat to him and wasn't told to not do this by his scumbuddy, or Flea wasn't killed for faer reads, leaving the possibilities as "pr hunt" or "threat due to Flea being Flea".)

If it is cyrus + someone who wouldn't tell cyrus better, then the most likely option would be VFP (tho I suppose marcistar would be possible).

If it is someone who thought Flea was a threat in general and/or Flea was a PR, I'd say it's Cupcake Butterfly + VFP (tho I suppose marcistar's possible if marcistar has played with Flea before).

POE-wise that'd imply to me that VFP is scum regardless tho, so I guess back to here;
VOTE: VFP

Am open to other thoughts here tho.

[mastina]

Btw iso'ing Flea, unless the scumteam is cyrus + someone who wouldn't tell cyrus not to pull such a n00bscum move, I'm thinking Flea was killed because the scumteam thought Flea was either a role or because the scumteam thought Flea was just that obvtown and were threatened by faer. (As far as I can tell, Flea gave suspicion to only cyrus and maybe imaginality. So the possibilities are; either cyrus is scum and killed Flea as the main threat to him and wasn't told to not do this by his scumbuddy, or Flea wasn't killed for faer reads, leaving the possibilities as "pr hunt" or "threat due to Flea being Flea".)

If it is cyrus + someone who wouldn't tell cyrus better, then the most likely option would be VFP (tho I suppose marcistar would be possible).

If it is someone who thought Flea was a threat in general and/or Flea was a PR, I'd say it's Cupcake Butterfly + VFP (tho I suppose marcistar's possible if marcistar has played with Flea before).

POE-wise that'd imply to me that VFP is scum regardless tho, so I guess back to here;
VOTE: VFP

Am open to other thoughts here tho.

To explain this, there exists only two possible worlds for Flea's death:
Flea was killed for faer reads;
Flea was not killed for faer reads.

In the former case, Flea's only read as far as I can tell was cyrus as scum. If Flea was killed for faer reads, this would necessitate cyrus being scum. However, for cyrus to make a kill on Flea for faer reads, when cyrus is fairly n00bscum, requires that cyrus's scumbuddy not disapprove of this tactic. The most likely player to not disapprove is VFP.

In the latter case, we subdivide into two worlds:
Flea was killed for scum suspecting Flea was one of the PRs bidden for during the day;
Flea was killed for scum fearing Flea as a town player, beit their skill in general or them being seen as town or something along these lines.

As it so happens, in both subdivided worlds I would expect the player to make this sort of kill to be the same person, Cupcake Butterfly.
I would expect the player most likely to back the kill off of that reason to be VFP.

Admittedly, this is after factoring in my prior deductions. Of the wagon on scum being all town, of ssbm being town, of MistyX being town. Meaning the pool is limited to 4 people from the getgo.

If MistyX flaked from the game overnight, it is possible for MistyX to be a missing-overnight scumbuddy, for instance, fitting into both the cyrus-scumbuddy world and the killed-for-threat-scumbuddy world. But I think her slot is town, soooo...

[mastina]

So I'm E1 because scum do what they do every game and call me town.

No you're L-1 because this game is incredibly winnable via POE thanks to how D1 played out, and the N1 nightkill can be used to deduce even further the most likely scum to make the kill there in the remaining players, and you're the best fit for that.

VOTE: Mastina because she talked a lot about her vote but a lot of the logic seemed to contain some "in this scenario I think it's most likely VFP" statements where the reason for thinking it's most likely VFP wasn't really laid out.

What's there to lay out when it's player psychology analysis?

I am somewhat familiar with the way most of the players operate in this game when they are scum. What they are likely to do as scum, how they operate as scum, thoughts that are likely to occur to them as scum and thoughts that are unlikely to occur to them as scum.

If Flea was killed because cyrus is scum and cyrus's scumbuddy didn't tell them to not do this, the most likely player to fit that is VFP because VFP is the type of scum player that would analyze cyrus's choice and not see the downside, supporting it, more or less. He would look at it, and either be indifferent to it or more likely "sounds like a good idea" or something to that effect. Where he would see the upsides to the kill but not consider the downsides involved.

If Flea was not killed because cyrus is scum, the possibilities are Flea was killed to PR hunt or Flea was killed for general threat level.

If Flea was killed to PR hunt, the two players most likely to engage in PR hunting are Cupcake Butterfly and VFP. They are the players most likely to try and delve into PR speculation, of where the bids were, and try to kill based off of that. VFP has engaged in this type of behavior before so he tops the charts in this regard.

If Flea was killed for general townness factor between Flea being obvtown and being Flea...VFP is one of the players with the most familiarity with Flea, and the type of player to be most afraid of Flea, and the type of player most likely to approve of a kill on Flea for that reason.

But all of this relies on psychological profiling of the player in question. How do you explain a psychological profile? How do you give details of it? You can't exactly point to past scumgames for a one for one comparison because it's not a tell, there's enough variance in games that it's not going to be a one for one comparison. You can look at the general psychology and basic patterns, but that's about it, and it's those patterns that make me think VFP is the most likely to approve of a Flea kill here.

I can maybe explain the psychology behind the players who wouldn't make the Flea kill as to why they're unlikely to make it. But the unlikely-to-nightkill psychological profiles are pretty damn similar in how fact-lacking they are, so I genuinely don't know how to give more. You're asking me to create extra logic in a place where there's no extra logic to be had.

[mastina]

What would get you into reading the game more critically?

If I knew that I wouldn't be in a slump, now, would I?

We've actually limmed scum, nothing in Kitty's ISO tips you off in one direction or another?

I mean there's not much there but I read it and reading it made me think that VFP was more likely scum.

Why back the VFP wagon now? Do you really think town hit scum twice EoD1?

I don't see why not.

I'm having trouble visualizing two thought patterns existing within you. You don't seem confident in your understanding of the game, but enough to assert votes and attach scumreads/associatives loosely. What is your goal?

I don't see how the two are mutually exclusive in your eyes? Like, they're both true. I HAVE had issues getting into this game. It's getting slightly better, but it's not like I've got lock-solid reads. I have a decent guess. I think my psychological profile of VFP RE: Flea's death has a reasonably high chance of being right, and the dead scum D1 loosely does support the hypothesis. But while it's a good guess, it's basically just that, a guess. I wasn't spearheading a VFP wagon. I voted there. It was others who sheeped me and my vote and my logic, but I didn't campaign to any of them; apparently they just agreed with my theory and thought it was a good one.

Also, not having a good game is no excuse not to try. Just because I'm having issues doesn't mean I'm not still going to try my best and my best right now is voting VFP.

i feel like scum could've easily hammered him and didnt though.

Scum tend to not want to hammer scum when scum died D1.

[mastina]

@Mastina do you tr kyuku? Having her top srs 2 slots that actually voted scum really weirds me out.

Not to the same extent as I townread the scum voters D1 or the MistyX/S_S slot, but loosely? Yes. I see enough in SSBM's contributions to think they are more likely town than not, including their usage of the Market Owner power, and they were voted Market Owner on D1 by, how many people? 5? That's 5 people who trusted SSBM to be one of the towniest yet mechanically-best players and to some extent I want to trust in their read.

So SSBM isn't a top townread but IS a townread.

My readslist right now would be:
{Distance, Smoke and Mirrors, Imaginality, Gamma Emerald} (all conftown to me)
Mistyx/Something_Smart (basically conftown to me)

ssbm_Kyouko (townread but not the locktown tier of the above)

(huge gap)

marcistar

(somewhat of a gap)

{cyrus, Cupcake Butterfly} (I think exactly one of them is scum but not both)

VFP

[mastina]

Also, why were all the midday bids so low.

3/4 of those were actually mine.

[mastina]

VOTE: Smoke and Mirrors

Smoke and Mirrors is a hydra containing Pooky.
Pooky has never bussed on D1 as scum, ever.

Smoke and Mirrors is thus the locktown of the locktown for how D1 went down.

[mastina]

1. Mastina didn't cover "scum are trying to coin hunt" in the breakdown of possibilities for why Flea was killed. @Mastina does #705 change your analysis?

coin hunting in this game IS PR hunting--either someone has 500 g or they have a role, those are the only possibilities for town.

[mastina]

Hot take: Smoke and Mirrors vs ssbm is tvt.

1. Mastina didn't cover "scum are trying to coin hunt" in the breakdown of possibilities for why Flea was killed. @Mastina does #705 change your analysis?

coin hunting in this game IS PR hunting--either someone has 500 g or they have a role, those are the only possibilities for town.

I agree it's binary in that sense.
You didn't consider the possibility Flea was eliminated for

not

having a power role though, and who'd be likely to do that. You only raised it from the angle that scum might have targeted Flea because they thought Flea had a power role.

Honestly, too tired to give it a proper think but first instinct is that it's still the same people. If I wasn't busy with other things + utterly exhausted, I'd be able to do the proper mental math there to verify, so apologies I can't do that at the moment.

[mastina]

I think I addressed this somewhere already but just sk you know in case you're town and using that to TR the hydra, pooky was not present for the Kitty wagon.

I am aware that Pooky has been having internet issues.

I still do not believe a scum Pooky lets his hydra partner break a meta that's, what, 20 years old by now? Damn near close to that long. Just because he wasn't the one to cast the vote doesn't mean that he can't have influence on the hydra.

[mastina]

Distance has died ! they were a [/color]

Vanilla Townie

For the record I made a pretty damn high bid (but not 500) on Watcher because I was intending to watch Distance.

Unfortunately that 500 is like 99% likely to have been a scum bid because no competent townie would've bet their entire savings on Watcher and then NOT have watched Distance so the 1% is someone being idiotic enough to spend all of their money on that role and yet be blind enough to not realize that literally nobody else was going to be the N2 nightkill. (Because, yes. To be clear. If you didn't realize Distance was the kill last night the way I did and you bid that much on Watcher--you're an idiot. It's literally inexcusable to pick up that role and then blunder that badly by not watching the obvious nightkill because Distance WAS that obviously the nightkill. But most likely, 500 = scum bid.)

For that matter?

Either the 2x doctor is dead, scum, or incompetent--same reason as the above. Someone spent 250 on that role and it was 2x so they had a protection available last night. Not protecting Distance is inexcusable as a doctor, so very likely either they're dead or scum. (To reiterate again, literally nobody was more likely to be nightkilled than Distance, and you can use sheer basic fundamental logic to track why. On the D1 scum wagon, imaginality had suspicion on him for his terrible D2 pushes so he wasn't going to die; Smoke and Mirrors had terrible suspicion on them D2 so they weren't going to die; Gamma Emerald I recall having reason to think Gamma wouldn't die; VFP as the scumfuck he is certainly wasn't going to die; Something_Smart with the suspicion his slot had wasn't going to die; Cupcake Butterfly definitely wasn't going to die; ssbm was heavily suspected by Smoke and Mirrors so wasn't going to die; imaginality's shitpush on me meant I wasn't going to die. Of these, the only one I can't remember strongly is Gamma Emerald but between Gamma Emerald and Distance the choice for the N2 nightkill was very very very obviously Distance here so neither the doctor nor the watcher targeting Distance means they're either dead, scum, or incompetent; those are the only three options available and given the size of the bids, dead or scum are the most likely.)

But I digress.

VOTE: VFP

Back to doing this, which is what we

should

have done yesterday.

[mastina]

I don’t have the kinds of interactions with a buddy that I had with Kitty. I don’t understand how anyone in the playerlist reading those interactions could possibly think they’re SvS.

I mean, yes, that too--it's not just the Pooky half the townread comes from. You're very obviously town by play here, too, Nancy, but in my opinion a 100% guaranteed to be accurate to the point of being a borderline trust tell (it's technically not one but is very close to being one with how damn strong a tell it is) for Pooky's meta is better, harder evidence of your slot being town than you being town.

But yes, it's both heads being town for separate reasons, rather than just one.

If she were lost or had little input, why are so many slots conftown to her?

Again, the two are not mutually exclusive as you have said them to be.

Why would she focus on a scumread that is already universally suspected (VFP) without really being in contact with VFP to deduce an alignment directly?

I'll be blunt.

I didn't read the end of D1.

I didn't even look at the end of D1 wagon aside from seeing the four votes on scum--I legit didn't know there were votes on VFP at all until well after D2 had started and people asked me about VFP vs the scum.

I had zero awareness of VFP suspicion.

I also didn't give a damn.

Because I have my own, individually generated, separate, reasons for believing VFP is scum, generated from basic premises and the logical conclusions to be reached from them.

The D1 wagon on scum went through with only four votes. That makes the players on the wagon much much much less likely to be scum. There's ways for the players on the wagon to be scum--intent to distance not realizing plurality blitz deadlines mean the distancing was lethal (first two votes), or deliberately deciding to bus for the towncred (last two votes). But more likely is just that the votes were town.

Mistyx is both a player whose contributions looked town to me, and whose replacement has also looked town to me, and whose slot has overall been highly town, with the players townreading the slot also being ones I by and large trust, with them townreading the slot for reasons either similar to mine or different but positively augmenting mine. Even were I to doubt my own read there, trusting their reads makes me trust them to be town.

ssbm is similarly a player whose contributions look town to me, their mechanical choice N1 was incredibly pro-town, and who others have thought to be town for fairly good, compelling reasons.

While I know that objectively I fit the profile for scum fairly well (I would consider Flea a threat and could make that kill N1; I did not realize this game had plurality and didn't remember it was a blitz game; I wasn't on the D1 scum wagon), I obviously know that I am town and that in spite of the objective reasons it could be me, know that it isn't me.

Which limits the pool down to, per cyrus's death, three names: {VFP, Cupcake Butterfly, marcistar}.

In those three names, VFP seems by far the most likely to be scum just by gamestate and by the N1 kill on Flea.

Given marcistar doesn't look like scum and that you do, that leads to the conclusion of VFP + Cupcake Butterfly.

[mastina]

Hot take: Smoke and Mirrors vs ssbm is tvt.

Doesn't seem like an especially hot take to me, but why?

Well Smoke and Mirrors is clearly town here because this is transparently Nancy's towngame through and through. It's painfully obviously Nancy's town meta, with every marker which that entails, beyond her ability to fake it as scum. Even were she having the scum performance of her life, I meant it when I said that the fact that the slot was voting scum on D1 and contains Pooky means that the slot is 100% guaranteed locktown. It IS literally a nearly 20-year-old tell for Pooky that is borderline trust tell. Pooky's relative absence from the game be damned, he's not letting a tell that old randomly be broken. He's not flaked from the hydra altogether, per Nancy and also per common sense. (If Pooky

were

100% completely and entirely out of the game I would expect Nancy to replace in solo or replace her hydra with a different hydra to get a different partner.)

ssbm is also someone there's a lot of reasons for me to think is town, but beyond those, ssbm vs Smoke+Mirrors just has literally every single classical marker of a TvT fight. It screams, bleeds, TvT to its very core at every stage.

He's town is why. He was the alternative to Kitty.

Why can't the two top wagons be S/S?

My thoughts exactly. There's nothing in how the game has played out which says that VFP was a scumdriven counterwagon to the towndriven wagon on scum. And for that matter, nothing but paranoia about VFP's L-1 wagon on D2 having scum there, when multiple members of the VFP wagon on D2 are town with a high degree of certainty. cyrus? Flipped town. Distance? Flipped town. Smoke and Mirrors? 100% conftown to me. me? Also conftown to me. marcistar? Highly highly likely to be town. The L-1 wagon on VFP was in fact in high probablity? All town.

The only possible scum there is marcistar who Distance, the nightkill, hard-vouched as being town, a read I am inclined to sheep.

I realize that others don't have the advantage of conftowning me so that objectively I could be scum on the VFP wagon--but from my point of view the wagon is as close to confirmed all-town as it can be without being confirmed as all town.

[mastina]

1. post 483, mastina votes VFP for no reason: "If I had to take a blind guess of blind guesses, it'd be VFP + Cupcake Butterfly but I've got literally zero logic for this."

I did indeed have zero logic aside from the poe pool. (If you've got it down to 4 names, you've a 50% chance at voting scum at worst. So why wouldn't I vote?) I just looked at the four names left after doing the POE and made my best gut guess as to which two names had the highest chance to be scum together. There wasn't any logic to be had in the gut guess, it just was what felt like the best fit between the four names.

2. post 522 mastina invents some logic which conveniently turns out to justify staying on VFP

I invented nothing; after my initial lack of facts, I investigated Flea's iso and then I analyzed the available facts, which happened to back my initial gut guess. When looking at the players most likely to kill Flea, VFP topped the charts.

there were votes on VFP D1 so claiming to vote VFP for no reason is lazy.

I was not aware of the VFP votes on D1 and frankly don't give a damn--scum are scum regardless of what happened to them on D1 and when I've good reason to believe scum that was suspected on D1 is scum, I am going to keep my vote there. Scum are still scum no matter how widely suspected they are.

Like even if VFP flipped scum this is not awesome scum hunting.

So? Scum dead is scum dead. Do you think your D1 vote on scum was awesome scumhunting? It wasn't. It was basically a lucky break. But it still resulted in scum dead. It doesn't need to be awesome scumhunting if it gets the job done.

And I genuinely believe that VFP is the slot with the highest chance of flipping scum here, sooooo.

[mastina]

It's reasonable to think the vfp e-1 wagon could have been all town, but all town wagons happen on town sometimes.

Sure they do! But,
1: there's good reasons for VFP to be scum both from D1 and N1 which are factors absent from other players in the game meaning that there's actually tangible evidence that paints him as very likely scum, and,
2: Even if there weren't, POE is a bitch--if VFP isn't scum, then who is? It fundamentally

cannot

be Smoke and Mirrors. It is basically impossible to be Something_Smart. It's similarly hard for me to see you as scum. marcistar looks town and has been hard hard hard vouched by multiple members including dead town as this being her as town, meaning it's not her. And it's not me.

Which would leave {VFP, Cupcake Butterfly, imaginality, Gamma Emerald}--and two of those four were on the D1 scum wagon. The other two were not. And as an aside, I believe Gamma's content here to be indicative of him being town.

I was actually preparing my lim and already placed what I have on the ninja.

What you have? So you have a number other than 500? Meaning that you took one of

cop - [REDACTED]
doctor - 250
hitman 426
roleblocker - 410

1-shot Auction Detective 300
2-shot Auction Detective 450
2-shot Watcher 500

These?

As in, hitman, roleblocker, a doctor not saving Distance last night, an auction detective, or the watcher?

Do forgive me if I call "scumfuck" to that.

Because if any of those roles were picked up by you and you were town, you'd have claimed them and made use of them better than this.

[mastina]

Unfortunately that 500 is like 99% likely to have been a scum bid because no competent townie would've bet their entire savings on Watcher and then NOT have watched Distance

How did you even know this was the case? Not everyone had posted yet.

Well I didn't, but I made a fairly safe assumption--if someone after I had posted that had claimed watcher with a guilty? I'd be elated to have been proven wrong. But it looks like I was right, because it was a safe assumption to have been made, given the bet of 500. The maximum amount a townie can bid, then the obvious nightkill is nightkilled, I had a high bid on Watcher but not

that

high, I didn't get it, none of the people posting before me indicated they were a watcher with a guilty, all of that adds up to a fairly safe assumption that we don't have a watcher with a guilty.

So I didn't know, but I made a fairly reasonable guess, that happened to be accurate, because it was a reasonably safe assumption to be made.

[mastina]

Mastina's read on ssbm is fairly consistently 'town but not top tier town' kinda stuff, and often distancing herself by saying 'well other people are saying ssbm is town' kind of stuff.

Mastina on marci starts off more neutral but shifts to calling marci 'very very likely' town, I think partly again due to other people's meta reads on marci.

I have three axes by which I read people:
-Generic General tells. When I lack any specific experience with the individuals in question and/or when I don't have others to help refine my reads on individuals, this is a generic set of tells that generally apply. Scum are more likely to do x y z overall, and town more likely to do a b c overall, you get the idea. It is a set of rules I have to gauge players in question and generate initial reads which I substantiate when more material comes to give me more on a read.

An example of a generic tell would be "in this specific situation, I expect this to not be scum bussing", i.e., with how D1 played out, a generic general tell would be that the players on the D1 scum elimination are disproportionately more likely to be town.

-Meta tells, specific to the player in general. A tell may be a towntell in general, but for a specific player can be: a much much stronger towntell, something nai, or even something that is a scumtell, maybe even strongly a scumtell for them. A tell may be a scumtell in general, but for a specific player can be: a much much stronger scumtell, something nai, or even something that indicates for that specific player, they are town. It is things based off of experience which make me determine the behavior specific to that individual as holding an alignment.

A shining example of this is my hard-clear of Smoke and Mirrors. They are the towniest slot left alive in the game.

-Group consensus tell/Majority tells/I had a better name for this but I forget it. Where I take the feedback and input of others and use it to refine my reads. I trust and value their feedback, especially if they are players I trust to be town, especially if they are players I trust to be competent, and

especially

if it is both. (Tho I have trusted players who I wasn't sure were town and wasn't sure were competent before.)

My townreads on marcistar and ssbm (and to a lesser extent, Gamma Emerald) are a result of a combination of all three, but take a lot more from the group consensus category. Reads that I have some general things that I like from them, some meta that I like, but largely am relying on trusting in the competency of others and their townreads there. While I always reserve the right to hold my own read over their own (see also, I don't buy that Cupcake Butterfly is town here in spite of Nancy's among others insistence), I am quite aware I am not some infallible scumhunter whose reads are perfect. I can be wrong, so I take the feedback of others into account which can strengthen/weaken my existing reads.

And trusting in others in marcistar/ssbm in particular is what I mean there. I have my own reasons for townreading them but not to the extent where they are locktown...but the townreads on them by others are enough to amplify those would-be-weaker townreads to be stronger.

[mastina]

S_S, mastina, did either of you bid more than 325 on cop D1?

No. I've placed bids on every item every single day so generally speaking? None of my bids have exceeded 200 because I'm always splitting my bids between four different items. (I still have a full wallet because everyone has bid higher than 200 every single day and I can't go much higher than 200 on any single bid of mine due to me spreading my money out. I can go slightly higher than 200, but not by much, because I've multiple hundreds on other items, meaning only one item per day I have a chance of getting.)

Regarding mastina, I want her and VFP to interact today because I think it's TvS - this is why I'm backing off of VFP right now.

I don't have much to say directly to VFP beyond what I have said already.

I have, reasonably strong, reasons for holding the townreads that I do.

On the D1 scum wagon, Smoke and Mirrors is locktown both because of Pooky meta (tho I admit his lack of presence here when he's posting elsewhere is a bit strange) and Nancy meta point to them being town.

Alisae's flipout here combined with Gamma's contributions make me think town there.

imaginality is the weakest on the D1 scum wagon, but imaginality has seemed like wrong-town to me more than scum and the bid on roleblocker is more likely to be town. (After all, even if he's scum, he's basically limited to, at most, a bid of 300 elsewhere.)

I have very good reason to townread MistyX/Something_Smart. Though not clear, the chance of being scum is minuscule.

I have fairly good reason to think ssbm is town. Not locktown, but pretty town.

I have relatively good reason to trust the townreads on marcistar. Not locktown, but very close to it as apparently this is outside the realms of what marcistar can do as scum.

Which leaves {VFP, Cupcake Butterfly} as scum.

Beyond that: we have the Flea nightkill on N1. The Flea nightkill is most likely to have been made by VFP, per my psychological profile on players.

Beyond that: the flipped scum's interactions with VFP strongly indicate that VFP is an incredibly likely scumbuddy.

Beyond that: VFP's own handling of D1 is a reasonably good indicator that he is scum.

Beyond that: the D2 wagon on VFP which reached L-1? Almost assuredly all-town, including having Distance the dead town having advocated for that wagon all of D2.

Beyond that: I genuinely believe that VFP's comment towards 'what he has left' may have been a scumslip of him not having the 500 that a town player would have.

I realize that VFP has a fair amount going for him which makes him look town--which is fitting for any player even remotely competent at being scum. Any player remotely competent at being scum is always going to have things which make them look town.
But the townness is outweighed by the amount which points to him being scum.

(I realize that 'competent scum which look town' is something which could be Gamma, ssbm, marcistar, or Something_Smart but of them, all have at least some compelling reasons to not be so. Where the town outweighs the scum, where the competent-scum is less likely than the actually-just-town.)

[mastina]

Mastina didnt outright lie but said misleading things about her bids today. Said she never bid more than a couple hundred or so on anything but also said she put a very high bid on watcher and the 2 statements dont jive, but the one about not bidding a lot on one thing wasn't an absolute

When we have 500 how the FUCK is 200 NOT 'pretty damn high'?

It's literally nearly half of what we have at our disposal. 40% of what you have is pretty damn high. How would it NOT be?

I Bid 200 on 1x Cop;
I Bid 150 on 2x Doctor;
I Bid 11 on 1x Hitman;
I Bid 11 on 1x Roleblocker;
I bid 40 on 2x Gravedigger;
I bid 10 on 1x Auction Detective;
I bid 200 on 2x Watcher;
I bid 10 on 2x Auction Detective;
I Bid 100 on Jailkeeper initially;
I Bid 50 on Tracker initially;
I Bid 25 on Ninja initially;
I Bid 5 on Godfather initially;

I've raised bids to unspecified amounts on the non-500 items, which are fairly high bids in their own right.

I've been bidding ~300-425ish (I've not mathed it out) each day, with the intent of having some money to spare if I win all my bids but to not go all-in on getting any individual power. Which has led to me being outbid by people because apparently people are willing to spend 300+ on items and blow through their economy.

VOTE: Cupcake Butterfly
I prefer VFP > Cupcake Butterfly, but Cupcake Butterfly > most of the other eliminations > me and there's votes there so.

[mastina]

I also don't like how when I argued why town should bid high D1 and D2, mastina didn't engage in that discussion but did bid low. Clearly she felt I was wrong so why not question it or disagree? Keeping quiet while believing someone is pushing town to adopt a bad strategy seems anti-town.

There's a simple answer to this;

I didn't disagree with the idea of bidding high.

But you and I have different definitions of bidding low.

Bidding 200 on one item (that was not nearly that high) and bidding 100 on a separate item?

That's not bidding low, that's bidding high.

Again.

How the FUCK is 200 NOT a high bid? When there's four items up for auction per day, an investment of 200 on an item means that you can't bid that much on the other three items. 125 is the maximum equally-distributed bid you can make (500 / 4), so anything above 125 is bidding high on an item. And when you have 500 total, bidding 200 on one item and 100-150 on another item means that you are bidding the majority of your income. If you bid 200 on one item, that leaves a maximum of 100 to distribute to the other three. If you bid 200 on one item and more than 100 on a second item, that means the maximum you can bid on the other two is in the range of 50-75. So bidding 200 on any one item is bidding high.

[mastina]

I also don't like how when I argued why town should bid high D1 and D2, mastina didn't engage in that discussion but did bid low. Clearly she felt I was wrong so why not question it or disagree? Keeping quiet while believing someone is pushing town to adopt a bad strategy seems anti-town.

There's a simple answer to this;

I didn't disagree with the idea of bidding high.

But you and I have different definitions of bidding low.

Bidding 200 on one item (that was not nearly that high) and bidding 100 on a separate item?

That's not bidding low, that's bidding high.

Again.

How the FUCK is 200 NOT a high bid? When there's four items up for auction per day, an investment of 200 on an item means that you can't bid that much on the other three items. 125 is the maximum equally-distributed bid you can make (500 / 4), so anything above 125 is bidding high on an item. And when you have 500 total, bidding 200 on one item and 100-150 on another item means that you are bidding the majority of your income. If you bid 200 on one item, that leaves a maximum of 100 to distribute to the other three. If you bid 200 on one item and more than 100 on a second item, that means the maximum you can bid on the other two is in the range of 50-75. So bidding 200 on any one item is bidding high.

Also?

imaginality posted the bid logic in 173.

Tell me,

imaginality:

what was my last post on D1?

Was it before, or after, your 173?

Because I am pretty sure my last post of D1 was 167.

And guess what?

As I already have stated, I didn't read all of D1.

Everything between my 167 and the end of D1 I did not read--your posts included.

[mastina]

Who's dying?

If I had my way, it'd be you because this is the scummiest of scumfuck pop-ins.

Alas, to prevent someone worse from being eliminated I had to settle on Cupcake Butterfly.

[mastina]

VOTE: KittyTacky
Haven’t seen much from distance I didn’t like since my initial vote
Also, I wanna put this at 4 votes since we have other wagons at 2 but none at 3

For the record, having spent the time at deadline looking at D1 past my 167, if there

was

a busser, it was here.

Smoke and Mirrors was town manifest.

imaginality's COULD be scum but still looks town, plus there's other factors for why he'd be town.

IF there were a scum busser, it could only be Gamma.

VFP's willingness to vote for Cupcake Butterfly means that Cupcake Butterfly is sadly, probably a miss, but I don't have the ability to wagon VFP today and the alternative wagons to Cupcake Butterfly are so much worse so sadly, I'll have to hope and pray that Cupcake Butterfly actually is scum here but this is at least decent prep work for tomorrow in case Cupcake isn't.

VFP is still definitely scum here tho.

[mastina]

Also,

imaginality:

while it's looking like we're not getting a scumflip since you refuse to see VFP as scum, in case we actually DO have a scumflip, you should announce your roleblock as the only player who could bypass the roleblock is ssbm. So IF we get a scumflip, and IF there is a kill, the player you block is cleared. (I'm pretty sure this even applies if scum take the jailkeeper, since I'm pretty sure that a roleblocker roleblocking a jailkeeper making a kill takes priority, but we should check with Gypyx there.)

Obviously, if we don't get a scumflip which we're apparently not going to get, then it's your choice what to do. Holster, hipshoot, whatever. Still target the blocked person or target someone else, up to you.

But IF we get a scumflip, then you should say who you are targeting.

[mastina]

Gypyx: if a town player with the roleblocker roleblocks a scum player with the jailkeeper, and the scum player with the jailkeeper blocks the roleblocker, while the scum player with the jailkeeper makes the nightkill, what happens? How do you resolve that interaction?

[mastina]

Roleblocker resolves first, I mentioned that already.

Thus you should have an "if scumflip, I will block this player" handy given the only player capable of bypassing your roleblock is ssbm so if you block literally anyone else other than ssbm with one scum alive and there is a nightkill, the player you roleblocked becomes conftown.

[mastina]

Roleblocker resolves first, I mentioned that already.

Thus you should have an "if scumflip, I will block this player" handy given the only player capable of bypassing your roleblock is ssbm so if you block literally anyone else other than ssbm with one scum alive and there is a nightkill, the player you roleblocked becomes conftown.

Basically:
IF THERE IS TWO SCUM ALIVE:
Announcing a roleblock in advance does no good. This is likely the world we're heading into, but we shouldn't blindly assume this world and then be unprepared for...

IF THERE IS ONE SCUM ALIVE:
A roleblock on scum prevents the scum nightkill.
The only role capable of bypassing the roleblock is the hitman, in the hands of ssbm.
Given this, announcing a roleblock before night means that if imaginality is nightkilled tonight, the player roleblocked by imaginality is conftown.
But the town won't know who imaginality blocked if imaginality doesn't announce it, because of assuming we'd be entering night with two scum alive.

[mastina]

Also:

Spoiler: remaining abilities

1. 1-shot Auction Detective : Choose another player. You will learn all of their bidding history from the previous day phase.

2. 2-shot Auction Detective : Choose another player. You will learn all of their bidding history from the previous day phase.

3. 1-shot Bulletproof : You are protected from the first Night-kill that has targeted you. Bulletproof is countered by Hitman.

4. 1-shot Day-Kill : Send me a private message with an order to kill someone during a day phase. That player will die.

5. 1-shot Cop : Choose another player. You will receive back a report of "Mafia" or "Not Mafia".

6. 1-shot Commuter : All abilities that target you will be roleblocked. Commuter is countered by Hitman. Must select a night to use it.

7. 1-shot Doctor : Choose another player. That player will be protected from the night kill that night.

8. 2-shot Doctor : Choose another player. That player will be protected from the night kill that night.

9. 2-shot Gravedigger : Choose another player who has died. You will learn of all the abilities they had when they died.

10. 1-shot Godfather : You appear as "Not Mafia" on Cop reports, regardless of your actual alignment. Must select a night to use it.

11. 1-shot Hitman : Scums Night-kill will ignore any ability that would stop the kill from working. Must select a night to use it.

12. 2-shot Hitman : Scums Night-kill will ignore any ability that would stop the kill from working. Must select a night to use it.

13. 1-shot Jailkeeper : Choose another player. That player will be protected from the night kill and also unable to act.

14. 1-shot Neighborizer : Choose another player. You will receive a QT upon daystart where you may talk any time while alive.

15. 2-shot Neighborizer : Choose another player. You will receive a QT upon daystart where you may talk any time while alive.

16. 2-shot Ninja : You may choose which of your visits (if any) will appear on Tracker and Watcher reports. Must select a night to use it.

17. 1-shot Roleblocker : Choose another player. All of their Targeted abilities that they activated for that night will fail.

18. 1-shot Tracker : Choose another player. You will be informed which players (if any) that player visited during the Night.

19. 2-shot Tracker : Choose another player. You will be informed which players (if any) that player visited during the Night.

20. 2-shot Watcher : Choose another player. You will be informed which players (if any) visited that player during the Night.

Mod: can you update this list? It'd make my life much easier.

[mastina]

Who am I reading wrong then?

Well townread-wise (you can substitute my name for yours, here), I'm currently at:

Smoke and Mirrors > marcistar > imaginality ~= Something_Smart > ssbm >>> Cupcake Butterfly (as of VFP voting them at end of day) > Gamma Emerald (as of

someone

needing to be scum and Gamma's vote on scum D1 being the most likely to be a bus) >>>>>>>> VFP.

[mastina]

Who am I reading wrong then?

Well townread-wise (you can substitute my name for yours, here), I'm currently at:

Smoke and Mirrors > marcistar > imaginality ~= Something_Smart > ssbm >>> Cupcake Butterfly (as of VFP voting them at end of day) > Gamma Emerald (as of

someone

needing to be scum and Gamma's vote on scum D1 being the most likely to be a bus) >>>>>>>> VFP.

Gamma is my strongest tr. Remember, I was recently buddies with him plus that’s not how scum!Alisae plays.

Well you asked me for who you were reading wrong and that'd be my feedback.

[mastina]

mastina saying she made a "damn high bid".
mastina saying all her bids are <= 200

even if

you start from the idea that we bid 125 on each role (and I have no idea why she makes that her default position), 200 is

Still not

"damn high". It reduces the other bids from 125 to 100.

I also don't like how when I argued why town should bid high D1 and D2, mastina didn't engage in that discussion but did bid low. Clearly she felt I was wrong so why not question it or disagree? Keeping quiet while believing someone is pushing town to adopt a bad strategy seems anti-town.

There's a simple answer to this;

I didn't disagree with the idea of bidding high.

But you and I have different definitions of bidding low.

Bidding 200 on one item (that was not nearly that high) and bidding 100 on a separate item?

That's not bidding low, that's bidding high.

Again.

How the FUCK is 200 NOT a high bid? When there's four items up for auction per day, an investment of 200 on an item means that you can't bid that much on the other three items. 125 is the maximum equally-distributed bid you can make (500 / 4), so anything above 125 is bidding high on an item. And when you have 500 total, bidding 200 on one item and 100-150 on another item means that you are bidding the majority of your income. If you bid 200 on one item, that leaves a maximum of 100 to distribute to the other three. If you bid 200 on one item and more than 100 on a second item, that means the maximum you can bid on the other two is in the range of 50-75. So bidding 200 on any one item is bidding high.

Mastina didnt outright lie but said misleading things about her bids today. Said she never bid more than a couple hundred or so on anything but also said she put a very high bid on watcher and the 2 statements dont jive, but the one about not bidding a lot on one thing wasn't an absolute

When we have 500 how the FUCK is 200 NOT 'pretty damn high'?

It's literally nearly half of what we have at our disposal. 40% of what you have is pretty damn high. How would it NOT be?

I Bid 200 on 1x Cop;
I Bid 150 on 2x Doctor;
I Bid 11 on 1x Hitman;
I Bid 11 on 1x Roleblocker;
I bid 40 on 2x Gravedigger;
I bid 10 on 1x Auction Detective;
I bid 200 on 2x Watcher;
I bid 10 on 2x Auction Detective;
I Bid 100 on Jailkeeper initially;
I Bid 50 on Tracker initially;
I Bid 25 on Ninja initially;
I Bid 5 on Godfather initially;

I've raised bids to unspecified amounts on the non-500 items, which are fairly high bids in their own right.

I've been bidding ~300-425ish (I've not mathed it out) each day, with the intent of having some money to spare if I win all my bids but to not go all-in on getting any individual power. Which has led to me being outbid by people because apparently people are willing to spend 300+ on items and blow through their economy.

VOTE: Cupcake Butterfly
I prefer VFP > Cupcake Butterfly, but Cupcake Butterfly > most of the other eliminations > me and there's votes there so.

^

[mastina]

Do you seriously think scum!Alisae - in a game where you need votes for MO - intentionally pisses off most of the playerlist then reps out? Why does e do that?

I neither think scum-Ali does it nor think scum-Ali doesn't do it. Alisae is an abrasive player--one of the most abrasive players onsite nowadays. Ali doesn't have games where e doesn't have that level of aggression, aggro, etc.

And Ali was in a fairly foul mood. I don't see the replace-out as alignment indicative at all, not really, tho I admit initially on the replacement I did have a gut-ping of "I think this is scum-Ali" before I reconsidered it into thinking that it was probably null.

So I don't see Ali's play here as town OR scum. I've largely been reading the slot off of Gamma's content--which I admit has seemed fairly town, but

someone

needs to be scum. Two someones.

And you aren't scum; marcistar isn't scum; Something_Smart doesn't look like scum; imaginality has fairly compelling reasons to be town; ssbm actually has reasonably good reasons to be town; that limits the pools of possible scum players.

We're about to get it narrowed even further with a Cupcake Butterfly flip and if Cupcake Butterfly isn't scum, who does that leave?

[mastina]

1-shot Jailkeeper - [REDACTED]

Night 3 has ended...
no one has died !
day 4 starts now

GET

FUCKED

, SCUM!!!

Did you REALLY think that, when there was such a fucking obvious protect two nights in a row and I had outed that I had made a top bid of 200 that you could snipe it from me and prevent me from saving marcistar?

Of COURSE I raised my bid above 200!

But by how much?

Too bad you redacted that bid, eh?? Guess you'll never know!

So I have some unspecified amount below 300.

To be clear and unambiguous:

I won the 1x jailkeeper, and I jailkept marcistar last night.

This is pretty damn transparently a protection as I figured using my role to protect was easier than using it to block with two scum alive. (If we had only one scum alive I was going to holster, let imaginality use his roleblock, announce I own a jailkeep and select a target, but with two scum alive and the obvious protect to make I needed to save marcistar.)

VOTE: VFP.

[mastina]

mastina

, who do u think vfps partner would be?

I honestly don't know. It's not Smoke & Mirrors; it's not you.

From there, towniest to least townie, I would go:

Something_Smart ~= imaginality > ssbm >>> Gamma Emerald >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> VFP

But my hope is that we can eliminate VFP today, VFP flips scum, and imaginality can give us an extra elimination with his roleblock, or an extra conftown if not. (That said the presence of a hitman means that we may have trouble there. I'm hoping that the scum cannot pick up both the tracker and the hitman so that one goes to town and that town player can use it to ensure redundancy with imaginality.)

[mastina]

(That said the presence of a hitman means that we may have trouble there. I'm hoping that the scum cannot pick up both the tracker and the hitman so that one goes to town and that town player can use it to ensure redundancy with imaginality.)

Basically my hope here is that if scum snipe the hitman for the rb immunity, they cannot snipe the tracker, and that the player with the tracker can thus use it to make just as much of a useful result as the rb;

If the scum snipe the tracker for the prevention of the investigative with one scum alive, they cannot snipe the hitman.

At least, that is the hope.

[mastina]

D2 $500 on watcher and got it.
N2 did not act.
N3 watched Smoke & Mirrors, no visits.

Wait, so what you're saying is.

You bought the 2x Watcher.
And on a night with NO NINJA POSSIBLE (the ninja didn't exist until D3), with us being DOWN ONE SCUM (meaning a guilty on scum N2 brings scum down to one scum alive), and there being AN OBVIOUS NIGHTKILL (Distance was the obvious kill), you chose to holster that role which you only had two shots of...

...And then, AFTER A NINJA WAS IN THE GAME (meaning that there's an obvious problem with watching the nightkill), instead of holstering until the ninja was dead, you THEN used it on the second-most-likely nightkill other than marcistar who is the obvious choice to say you used it on if you're planning on claiming the role without visiting the nightkill, WHILE THERE IS AN ALIVE NINJA no less (basically, claiming watcher on marcistar would mean a 1v1 between Something_Smart and someone else, beit a claimed guilty or a claimed no-visit which is a guilty on VFP so Something_Smart cannot target the nightkill of marcistar)...

...And that all through D3 you had almost no reaction to my outrage to the watcher being taken for $500 and then not used competently (other than mentioning that not all people had chimed in when I made that post)?

For a mechanics-oriented player, this smells of bullshit, so it might actually just be VFP + Something_Smart, buuuuuuuuuuuuuuuut...

1: VFP the ninja needs to die first, and,
2: With the claim of having one shot left, Something_Smart is mechanically better to keep alive today because it limits his options.

[mastina]

I WILL say that this is dismal play from Something_Smart regardless of his alignment tho--if he's scum he should know this is a terrible-ass claim that borderline scumfirms him;
If he's town then out-bidding me on the Watcher when I fucking knew how to use it is basically criminal especially with the holster claimed on N2 when we were down one scum and the Ninja was not in play yet and the claimed watch on Smoke & Mirrors is, while plausible to town, also the watch most convenient for scum to claim.

In either case it's bad from him, and I could make an argument for either--but overall I'm instantly putting him in the suspect pool. He may still be town yet, it could be Gamma+VFP, but VFP+S_S could be it as well.

I'm not really ready to make the call on who VFP is scum with, but the play today is to eliminate VFP and then coordinate the best usage of actions, including imaginality's roleblock and Something_Smart's second watch shot.

[mastina]

(I will say tho that overall balance of probability I thing S_S scum > Gamma scum here. Something_Smart's negligence-if-town and the convenience of ease in being scum, not to mention having defended VFP, mean that overall I would favor him as scum over Gamma right now. Something_Smart's play here as a mechanical player is bad regardless of his alignment, but it is much much much worse as town than as scum; if he is scum, he could have reasons to believe claiming may make him town, he could believe that claiming gives him more of an edge than faking having no role, he could believe that the claim is the lesser of two evils, he could make the claim and hope nobody figures out why it's so egregious, etc.; there's half a dozen reasons why he could believe that he needs to make the claim as scum, even though it is a very bad claim. But if he is town, the negligence is borderline criminal in his usage of the role. So while it could come from Something_Smart as either alignment and you can argue it either way, there's more in favor of him making the bad claim as scum than making that bad of choices as town in my opinion. Ultimately, it doesn't matter tho; we're eliminating VFP today, not Something_Smart, so whether S_S is scum is left to tomorrow, not today.)

[mastina]

Btw RE: the track:
Since scum, presumably, attempted to outbid me on the jailkeeper, but failed, they would know a town player got the jailkeeper.
If the jailkeeper was used to protect, they would assume that it was on Smoke & Mirrors, the more universal townread and loudest voice, which again is why a watch there is convenient.

If the jailkeeper was used offensively rather than defensively, though? Who would the scum think would be blocked? VFP, the person with the ninja and a universal scumread, or the other scum?

OBVIOUSLY, with the scum not having control of the jailkeeper, they would know that IF the jailkeeper were used offensively, that the jailkeeper would be roleblocking VFP, necessitating the non-ninja to perform the nightkill.

Which means that in all probability, the clear on SSBM is in fact a clear. While it's obviously possible scum, knowing that they didn't get the jailkeeper, chose to holster out of fear of the jailkeeper, them deliberately no-killing guarantees the jailkeeper agency; if the jailkeeper was used offensively on VFP, VFP's a guaranteed elimination; if the jailkeeper was used defensively on town, then the town player is cleared from the jailkeeper; this, regardless of an attempt to kill or not.

In other words: scum

could

have holstered, but they had more reason to take a shot than to not. Meaning that the clear while not absolute, I still trust as being reasonably likely to be correct.

So at this point:
Smoke and Mirrors = marcistar = ssbm >> imaginality >>> Gamma Emerald

>

Something_Smart >>>>>>>> VFP to me.

[mastina]

btw @Mastina I'm looking at my notes page now and it occurs to me that if scum bought 2-shot AD as I believe they did, then that scum has 350 left, so if you want to outbid that scum you have to bid 350 before they do

I don't have 350.

I started with 500--I bid over 200 for the jailkeep.

That means I have some, undisclosed, amount less than 300.

If I bid 201 I'd have 299; if I bid 215 I would have 285; if I bid 225 I'd have 275; if I bid 250, I'd have 250; if I bid 300, I'd have 200; etc.

I bid some, undisclosed, amount greater than 200 on the jailkeeper, meaning I have less than 300 left.

If scum have 300, I cannot outbid them on anything.

[mastina]

- Ninja doesn't make watcher useless; in fact, knowing who has the ninja makes the ninja useless. If I see someone die and nobody visited them, that's just as much a guilty on VFP as if I saw anyone else visit.

This is taking future knowledge and applying it to past knowledge.

VFP announced on D3 that he bid 500 on the Ninja.

You would not know this when you picked Watcher. (Unless of course you were scum with VFP and VFP let you know he was going to publicly announce intent to pick up that bid.) If VFP did not announce the 500 bid on Ninja, then scum could pick up Ninja and you wouldn't know who held it.

[mastina]

Actually I feel quite strongly that scum bought 2-shot AD and as I wrote it out, only mastina and marci can afford that.

I'll let you in on a secret: the $200 mid-day bid on tracker?

That's me.

I spent less than 301 on the jailkeep yesterday so I have at least 200 available today. I spent more than 200 but less than 301 so have at least 200 left, somewhere in the range of 201-299.

[mastina]

has any of them ever tried to pull of a no kill as scum o-o

Exactly once, with extenuating circumstances; I was the only scum alive, and there was both a tracker in the game and a possible hider that I needed to avoid a guilty for.

I've never no-killed deliberately with 2+ scum alive tho. The closest I've come is submitting a nightkill on a player that I knew that there was a submitted jailkeep on from my scumbuddy. (It was intended to be good scum theater, tho it didn't end up working out, but it was REAL. I didn't holster and let the jailkeep go through, I actually SHOT, and let the jailkeep go through.)

[mastina]

Actually I feel quite strongly that scum bought 2-shot AD and as I wrote it out, only mastina and marci can afford that.

I'll let you in on a secret: the $200 mid-day bid on tracker? That's me.

(You'd think the fact that I've been bidding $200 on items each day would be a dead giveaway that the 200 on tracker was me. Just because I ended up bidding more than 200 on the jailkeeper doesn't mean I'm not going to keep bidding 200 on things.)

[mastina]

Well now it's over, can you tell me if Gamma tried to get JK for 300 on the dot?

You know I find it weirdly hilarious that the logic for Something_Smart being scum relies on the theory that scum bid 300 on the jailkeeper, but I got it because I bid 300 before them.

Because as it turns out that logic is entirely wrong.

If scum had bid my bid, they'd have gotten it, as I submitted my bid during twilight, in the very last minutes of the day. I only raised my bid at the very last second, meaning that for all intents and purposes, an equal bid would've meant scum would beat me. Meaning that I did in fact bid more than the scum did. And my bid? It wasn't 300. It was 250.

The reason the other 50 didn't show is because I put that 50 on the same ability that imaginality spent his remaining 90 on, meaning my remaining $50 was hidden.

As I was killed that night, that meant I couldn't share my bid the next day--so if the final scum is eliminated off of the $300 bid logic, it's hilarious to me as being a right conclusion (Something_Smart is scum), for a totally wrong reason.

Suffice to say; if they bid anything at all on it, it was not in fact $300, and would necessarily be lower than $250.

[mastina]

And agree with Kyouku- Mastina mvp.

Eh, I was acceptable, predicting (albeit unable to stop) the Distance nightkill N2, predicting (and stopping) the marcistar kill N3, and correctly putting both Gamma and Something_Smart below ssbm and Smoke & Mirrors, but I did have notable shortcomings;

On D1, I didn't know this was a blitz game in spite of 'Blitz' literally being

in the name of the game

and thus was absent for basically all of D1 and as a consequence, did not contribute to the scum elimination; had I been around, it's still possible I wouldn't have; I

did

struggle to get into the game initially; until Something_Smart claimed to have picked up the Watcher he was one of my strongest townreads; I had VFP as my strongest scumread; I never really pushed either of the scum and only had them near the bottom of my scum pile at the end through sheer poe of deducing marcistar-town + what amounted to a soulread on Smoke & Mirrors and my reads on the remainders were just circumstantial sorting that happened to in its final iteration be accurate enough especially with an imaginality nightkill.

But hey, I got nightkilled, and my reads lead to the final scum elimination (even if on faulty logic) so I certainly won't complain about posthumously causing a town win.

[mastina]

And agree with Kyouku- Mastina mvp.

Eh, I was acceptable, predicting (albeit unable to stop) the Distance nightkill N2, predicting (and stopping) the marcistar kill N3, and correctly putting both Gamma and Something_Smart below ssbm and Smoke & Mirrors, but I did have notable shortcomings;

On D1, I didn't know this was a blitz game in spite of 'Blitz' literally being

in the name of the game

and thus was absent for basically all of D1 and as a consequence, did not contribute to the scum elimination; had I been around, it's still possible I wouldn't have; I

did

struggle to get into the game initially; until Something_Smart claimed to have picked up the Watcher he was one of my strongest townreads; I had VFP

+ Cupcake Butterfly

as my strongest scumreads; I never really pushed either of the scum and only had them near the bottom of my scum pile at the end through sheer poe of deducing marcistar-town + what amounted to a soulread on Smoke & Mirrors and my reads on the remainders were just circumstantial sorting that happened to in its final iteration be accurate enough especially with an imaginality nightkill.

But hey, I got nightkilled, and my reads lead to the final scum elimination (even if on faulty logic) so I certainly won't complain about posthumously causing a town win.

*Edit by way of quote as I forgot it wasn't just VFP I was wrong on. I double-tunneled, not single-tunneled.