Micro 1018: The King's New Robes | Game Over

[Psyche]

i'll worry about this thread tomorrow

[Psyche]

oh hi again
you play a lot of mafia huh

[Psyche]

I'm a VT. Haven't read enough yet to know why but yall are making a mistake.

[Psyche]

what kind of setup is this where you can reach a solve by lynching town four days in a row

[Psyche]

confscum! hope you do some reflection on that later

[Psyche]

sorry for the delay; i can promise to catch up tonight though i know that's kinda late!

[Psyche]

wow i suck ok im just gonna not think about anything else for like half an hour i mean it's not even 30 pages what is wrong with me

[Psyche]

I'm not lying

Then tell us what is your role?

Mystic

Wrong answer.

Hard Claim. I lied before.

I am Town Mystic. I targeted ActionDan on night 0

at this point reading through the thread i am super pissed off

[Psyche]

my name's not in that votecount am i vfp?

UNVOTE:

[Psyche]

Can someone actually explain how we know we aren't in
Mafia Seamstress, Mafia Actress, D1 Town Bride, Town Mystic x2, Vanilla Townie x4

This seems technically totally possible? Scum seamstress using her ability under this setup seems to just confirm the other town mystic. And it's not really a strong enough ability to justify the trade-off.

[Psyche]

Uhhh.

We have 2 mystic claims.
But both can't be true.

this thread's full of people who have been playing this game for way too long to not understand the setup

[Psyche]

Okay, so I do think PP is town because of some convincing obliviousness earlier in the game. T3 is town. I'm town. Everyone dead so far is almost definitely town. That leaves the two in ArcAngel, Dwlee, ActionDan. I'm honestly pretty unsure which but I do lean town on Dwlee (gg if you and enchant have faked the performance yallve done itt tbh). And yeah as long as we lynch in those 3 (which we do have room to do before losing) then we win. Another way to put it is just that we win as long as one of the town in {me, ArcAngel, Dwlee, ActionDan} avoids ever getting mislynched. Maybe that can be me, maybe it's safe to let that be Dwlee. I guess I do agree w the comment before that even after 4 mislynches our odds of winning remain pretty high.

Probably about to vote ArcAngel.

It doesn't feel totally right but there are good reasons for it (weird vt fakeclaim, non sequitor "counter claim", weird selfvote) and worst case scenario we get an info dump from the people she's targetted over the course of the game that conceivably identifies a Seamstress in the off chance that both she and dwlee are town.

But I guess that depends on which targets they've claimed?

ArcAngel has claimed...
ActionDan
Dwlee
Rockhopper
someone else

Enchant/Dwlee has claimed...
NotMafia
ActionDan
Rockhopper
someone else

why haven't you guys claimed your N3 targets?

[Psyche]

Just to be clear, Mafia with Seamstress has the option not to act in order to keep ambiguous whether there is 1 or 2 mystics. As long as there are only two Mystic claims and no one claims a Suit and no one flips Seamstress, setup is indistinguishable between first and second possibilities. Lynching Mystic claims until a non-Mystic flip (all Mystic flips are mechanically confirmed even if Actress doesn't act) OR lynching Seamstress is only way to clarify between setup 1 and 2 here.

[Psyche]

Another option I leave out above of course is the case where we lynch a Mystic and their flip exposes a Seamstress. Both mystics have claimed ActionDan as targets and ArcAngel has claimed Dwlee and each has selected one more unknown target last night. So odds are pretty good that we know after today whether there's a Seamstress among us?

[Psyche]

Sorry for multiposting. I just wanna conclude: there's a lot of value in lynching a Mystic claim today, whether it's ArcAngel or Dwlee.

Suppose we're in the second setup where there are 2 mystics and 1 seamstress. Lynching ArcAngel (for example) is then guaranteed to check Dwlee and ActionDan and a third person (almost definitely either me or PP) for that role. This gives town a ~2/3 chance of identifying the seamstress and getting us a free lynch tomorrow.

Suppose instead we're in the first setup and one of Dwlee and ArcAngel is scum. Lynching the town among them similarly triggers a check of various players for the seamstress role, building our confidence that we're in that setup (though not confirming - there's one player not covered by the check). We then have pretty good odds of finding scum by lynching the other mystic claim.

Again assuming we're in the first setup but first lynching the scum among them confirms the remaining mystic as town. We then have a pool of 3 people to identify the last scum in (me, actiondan, pp). Because the game has gone from 4v2 to 3v1, we get two opportunities to do that.

Maybe my math is off here but at any rate this does seem like where we are

[Psyche]

oh that matters a lot for my math and makes me sad

[Psyche]

im a hypocrite!

[Psyche]

yah sry

[Psyche]

I merely think it's possible. Thing in your iso that most puts me off is the context of your "counterclaim" for NM. Given that it was always possible for there to be 3 mystics, I just don't get it. That plus the fact that you lied about being a VT in the first place.

[Psyche]

no i just don't find it super credible

[Psyche]

VOTE: ArcAngel9

Ok, one day left. Am open to other ideas but have to be convinced.

[Psyche]

im town

[Psyche]

a private vca method ive been working on suggests dantown but i am a bit attached to my pp read

[Psyche]

i sure am attached to my pp read though

[Psyche]

Whether you're town or mafia I think that was a bad and super frustrating decision; there's no way else to put it. But this whole thread is a mess so whatever

[Psyche]

like when you say "my scum games are really rough" i'm just like "ok well that checks out"

[Psyche]

im not scum. dwlee doesn't really fit but i guess nothing makes it impossible. frightening possibility. anyway

[Psyche]

there's no chance the modkilled slot is scum that just wasn't allowed a vengekill right?

[Psyche]

do you have a reason for dwlee/enchant besides poe?

[Psyche]

i can move for a good reason. since a majority isn't needed we do have a lot of room these next 8 hours for someone to make some compelling case...

[Psyche]

hmm

[Psyche]

so that one guy is confirmed town now and there was a seamstress all along cool
2 scum in me, actiondan, pp
but it's lylo? where's the autowin dwlee?

[Psyche]

sry for saying guy btw

[Psyche]

VOTE: ActionDan

I guarantee you won't regret it T3. Don't trust in me. Trust in the you that trusts in me.

[Psyche]

wait but i can type out a case or something if you don't trust in me just don't be evil

[Psyche]

dwlee come on the heart of the cards or something

[Psyche]

dwlee is confirmed town right? no?

[Psyche]

UNVOTE:

[Psyche]

ugh no seamstress is the only reveal we can trust, ok
but still dwlee claimed before bride ability use. would be an interesting gambit.

[Psyche]

Mafia Actress x2, D1 Town Bride, Town Mystic, Vanilla Townie x5
Mafia Seamstress, Mafia Actress, D1 Town Bride, Town Mystic x2, Vanilla Townie x4

to be clear, position setups are:

dwlee actress
t3 bride
1 actress, 2 VTs in me, pp, dan (but i'm town etc)

and

dwlee mystic
t3 bride
1 seamstress 1 actress 1 vt in me, pp, dan (but im town etc)

tedious tedious dwlee where is the solve tho

[Psyche]

im sleep deprived i said position instead of possible and i do NOT use autocorrect
but i wanna win this i sure do

[Psyche]

you were all obv town! except maybe dan. it's a very frustrating situation. i demand sympathy

[Psyche]

You better tell me how you thought this game was solved dwlee I need you to show your work.

[Psyche]

Wait ok I need to be more serious this is LYLO. Ahem.

I ended up sticking with Arcangel out of inertia after I misunderstood what Mystics do. It was a mistake that led me to ignore my own gut feelings surrounding the slot despite my reservations about the slot managed their claim. I shouldn't have done it.

If I wanted to learn a big lesson from that, I would trust in PP because ignoring setup stuff my gutread on them is the most strongly town. But enchant/dwlee do come at a close second. Couldn't we just split the difference and take down Dan?

[Psyche]

I’m extremely sus on this, since it looked like Arc was probably still going through so why the sudden switch? It looks like Dan was onboard with limming Arc but wanted towncred for being offwagon.

is this hop or nancy

[Psyche]

actiondan i don't swear a lot. im a very modest man. but i swear to you to the extent allowable in a mafia game* that i am not mafia.

* i.e. i am legally obligated to include an asterisk here noting that i could be lying

[Psyche]

no i shouldnt be making posts like that it's too glib ugh

[Psyche]

hi nancy!

[Psyche]

oh cmon dwlee was it the asterisk thing

[Psyche]

wait but i already explained!
he can be actress!

[Psyche]

they!

[Psyche]

I have been kinda lazy here lately and am gonna check out until I'm more alert or someone posts something that makes it hard for me to sleep.

[Psyche]

gut says this looks town v town so i am obviously bad at mafia and maybe people in general

[Psyche]

gut says this looks town v town so i am obviously bad at mafia and maybe people in general

How is that possible? Even if Dan is scum, someone who isn’t us has to be his buddy?

I don’t tr Dwelee because I don’t think honestly he srs us for trying to derail Arc wagon. So it’s giving me really bad vibes.

it's not possible! well me being bad at mafia is possible

[Psyche]

tedious tedious dwlee where is the solve tho

i legit want an explanation for every time you said this and last phase that the game is solved after arc lynch

PP fmpov you pushed me over arc and so no you don't get any credit for that.

You're also not conftown for the bride because you could have seamstressed or actressed for the VT suit. I wasn't here when you obvtowned so I'll have to go read. My gut is psyche and Dan but I need to do reading which I can't do while moving into a new apartment.

also tell me about your trip from voting dan to "psyche and Dan"

[Psyche]

arc lim*

[Psyche]

You were that confident arc was scum?

[Psyche]

"mech consensus"? so you just went with the view because everyone else was? or are you just denying responsibility for the setup misreading?

[Psyche]

it just seems like it could easily be strategic laziness. so many of your posts in the iso are lines like "most people seem to think there has to be scum in Arc" while at the same time strongly leaning on a setup-based argument

fundamentally dependent

on that assumption to justify doing no further scumhunting and convince people to join the wagon. even your vote for rock was basically "well this guy likes the wagon so whatever". and yet you say you've only made one negative contribution all game?

[Psyche]

do you maybe have a post you can point to that would disprove the charge that you've just been going with the flow all game?

[Psyche]

i just feel like one interested in solving should either 1) take the time to work out the setup details themself instead of making references to the "mech consensus" or 2) not primarily use setup to pick and plan wagons

[Psyche]

ok last bit of tryharding:
can you update us on your confidence in that pp read you unvoted dan over?

[Psyche]

If your slot flips town this game is solved pretty much

what kind of setup is this where you can reach a solve by lynching town four days in a row

A really really bad one

just seems like a super blasé string of posts from someone who got grasp of the setup from a small-scale game of telephone

[Psyche]

but you're not conf

[Psyche]

I'm like 95% sure it's just you and Dan and if PP is scum I'm just writing this game off anyway.

writing off this game for what reason? because your reads were off a third phase in a row? none of the people you're weighing this time have done a fakeclaim you can excuse yourself over

I read the setup and thought about it. I didn't only get it through other people. I was questioning why people thought we couldn't have a seamstress when I was looking at the setup.

but then if you read the setup and thought about it and had some doubts, why then proceed to

base all your play

on someone else's read of the setup? ​i mean it's obvious why you would if you are scum and that read leads to a mislim, but why as town?

But based on my reading and game state I'm completely right about this setup I think. In 13p mini normals, the town mislims four times and loses. Here we have mislimmed four times and have a conftown. If arc actually flipped scum we would have just needed one town read (probably PP) to guarantee win because I'd be confirmed/dead, t3 confirmed/dead, and it's nightless.

And part of pushing arc there was because I wanted to just be conf and get us into autowin and I think that's clear from my play

The string of posts i most recently quoted show you saying that the game is solved if

I

am the one limmed - even if I flip town. We eliminated Arc, you aren't cleared, and instead of the game being solved we're just in LYLO.

[Psyche]

I'm like 95% sure it's just you and Dan and if PP is scum I'm just writing this game off anyway.

writing off this game for what reason? because your reads were off a third phase in a row? none of the people you're weighing this time have done a fakeclaim you can excuse yourself over

I read the setup and thought about it. I didn't only get it through other people. I was questioning why people thought we couldn't have a seamstress when I was looking at the setup.

but then if you read the setup and thought about it and had some doubts, why then proceed to

base all your play

on someone else's read of the setup? ​i mean it's obvious why you would if you are scum and that read leads to a mislim, but why as town?

But based on my reading and game state I'm completely right about this setup I think. In 13p mini normals, the town mislims four times and loses. Here we have mislimmed four times and have a conftown. If arc actually flipped scum we would have just needed one town read (probably PP) to guarantee win because I'd be confirmed/dead, t3 confirmed/dead, and it's nightless.

And part of pushing arc there was because I wanted to just be conf and get us into autowin and I think that's clear from my play

The string of posts i most recently quoted show you saying that the game is solved if

I

am the one limmed - even if I flip town. We eliminated Arc, you aren't cleared, and instead of the game being solved we're just in LYLO.

[Psyche]

I still think Dan is the safer choice.

[Psyche]

god t3 pls you're the conftown this thing depends on you

[Psyche]

If I'm supposed to believe PP as town is so obvious that the game is solved, then that doesn't exactly make you less suspicious to me ftr. It makes you confirmed scum.

[Psyche]

wait pls tell me you're at least going to own your PP read
like you know the slot isn't confirmed town right?

[Psyche]

gosh that's so fatalistic

[Psyche]

do you have a lot of games with t3 or something?

[Psyche]

I feel quite good about my PP read! So maybe I stop thinking and just

[Psyche]

T3 it's your problem now you're a delayed doublevoter i'm phoning it in. As long as you are voting between Dan and Dwlee I'm sheeping you.

VOTE: Dwlee

[Psyche]

even after all that i'm so uncertain

[Psyche]

if i lose this i swear off of mafia for like a whole season

[Psyche]

can't we just do dan instead?
just dip our toes into the dwlee theory

[Psyche]

put ur money where ur mouth is dwlee

[Psyche]

oh right

[Psyche]

hmm
ugh
no it can't be
i will not speak of it

[Psyche]

i cannot be swayed by the stray AtE of a 3 minute youtube video

[Psyche]

[Psyche]

i bet you will

[Psyche]

oh come on i tried so hard to show my wheels turning

[Psyche]

you do know that you're now committing to dan/pp as the mafia, right?

[Psyche]

wait i mean me/pp
because if dan were my bud you'd be hammered

[Psyche]

psyche/dan scumteam is ruled out

[Psyche]

golly if nancy got me nancy

got

me

[Psyche]

spooky

(i wanna remind people bussing is possible here though!)

[Psyche]

I see a lot of posts and votes.

Obligatory "not voting" post.

I'll read.

YES
Either Dan/Dwlee is the team or Dan is town because of not quickhammering.

so either
Dan/Dwlee
or Psyche/PP
OR Psyche/Dwlee (i am a very responsible guy)

but certainly not
Dan/PP
or Dan/Psyche

[Psyche]

why

[Psyche]

lol i was so excited to just come into the thread and claim the win

[Psyche]

at least i found the solve
though i guess i had an easier time than t3

[Psyche]

[quote="In post 953, ArcAngel9"][/quote]
you really ought to get out of the habit of fakeclaiming imo
it puts a ceiling on how much anyone will trust you for the rest of the game

[Psyche]

that was so silly though ugh. if i wanted to do a quickhammer i would have just done it! takes a lot of ego to pick up a read off of that

[Psyche]

anyway despite it all i quite enjoyed the game and thinking through the setup
thanks everyone!