FGO: Mafia in the Lostbelt - 2 Game Over

[Servant Assassin]

Assassin steps in from the shadows

[Servant Assassin]

Mechanically I am a great option for master, in fact I am debating simply claiming what I can offer.

[Servant Assassin]

My noble phantasm involves me making judgments about what other people find useful

Would you say it's better than a guaranteed cop-shot? That is my offer.

[Servant Assassin]

I honestly find it questionable that someone who gained a guaranteed cop shot from their NP would out it openly without possible consideration of it being blocked as a result.

It has been considered. I can guarantee its effectiveness.

[Servant Assassin]

Assassins entire play has screamed “I want the master power up from whoever gets it.” I can’t be the only one who saw that.

Yes, this is indeed correct

[Servant Assassin]

I have now actually had time to read the thread more closely than skimming.

I think it's pretty clear archer is town. Caster and Saber each are relatively towny. I do think a cop shot which would 100% go off (there is literally no way for scum counterplay) to start is just the best option, but if it isn't going to be me, saber is a fine 2nd choice.

I have yet to see anything that comes off as scummy, though beserker's appeal to cabd and the resultant thought to elect a charismatic town leader was off-putting.

[Servant Assassin]

It's hard to state without getting to far into my NP. Think about why town lose games. Think if someone could prevent that from happening.

Put that with a town leader.

I feel like it's my responsibility to prevent us from ruining ourselves if that makes sense.

I admit I don't quite get this part. Are you saying you'd set us up for success from your ability or that your IC status would be invaluable precisely because it is you who are IC. Once becoming master you should generally not plan or think about living past night 2.

[Servant Assassin]

Giving this another once over, Lancer is pinging me for scum.

I mostly dislike posts #85 and #100, the first being what the kids call LAMIST and the 2nd is simply that if you are town, you understand the pull that would draw one to wanting to become master. Even if me and Saber did not have strong mechanical reasons to want master, there is a pull that wants to get townread and make the most of your slot, and becoming master achieves that immediately. The "Why is that?" from Lancer basically should already be understood from a town perspective.

[Servant Assassin]

Typically people don’t like when someone opposes their game plan. I brought up information I deemed important to make these decisions, and stand by my choices to prefer someone to lead than someone for the role itself.

Lancer is town. I respect them not wanting to lead, but they are town. 85 is self reflective on their own qualifications to lead, as well as actual need and optimization of them receiving the master. I also think that everyone, regardless of alignment wants to be the master, so the “Why is that?” is more about trying to get a read and feels like an unfair nitpick.

The off-putting part was less about the mechanical element (though that comes into it) but more about the concept of a potential charismatic town leader. I don't find those types to have nearly as much value as their lofty name would suggest. I'd be perfectly happy with a potato in the slot if I knew it was town over that.

Where does your town read of Lancer come from? Is it actually from the posts I've mentioned or somewhere else. Even entertaining your charitable version I don't see how you can evaluate his posts beyond the null zone.

[Servant Assassin]

Perhaps I was not clear. I prefer a clear town slot ascending to IC-hood even if they are a potato over a charismatic person who people think would make a good town leader

if

they were town, yet was not yet clear. Believe me I've had my fair share of playing with IC confirmed potatoes so I understand the frustrations that come with it.

I think that post is easily fakable and scum ought to be cognizant that at least some of their members would have to fake that kind of reasoning or close to it. I think the way alter-ego did so was a much townier way to go about it. Everyone else has just been playing the game and not had to stoop to giving reasons why its ok for them to not take the IC (or in archer's case has had mechanics reasons).

[Servant Assassin]

^ that might be the one thing in the iso that looked half-way good.

[Servant Assassin]

This reminds me because you ought to be asked, Caster, why did you think (and do you still) that Archer is mafia. I mean I guess you can do the same for Berserker if you'd like.

[Servant Assassin]

It's easy to mock this kind of play but caster's recent postings have only bolstered my townread of her slot (a read which was probably too hasty before). I don't agree with her conclusions.

[Servant Assassin]

I mostly dislike posts #85 and #100, the first being what the kids call LAMIST and the 2nd is simply that if you are town, you understand the pull that would draw one to wanting to become master. Even if me and Saber did not have strong mechanical reasons to want master, there is a pull that wants to get townread and make the most of your slot, and becoming master achieves that immediately. The "Why is that?" from Lancer basically should already be understood from a town perspective.

Can you quote these posts in the same post? I play on mobile so that's hard.

Ok, I suppose you can have them here

I feel like I’m being pretty wishy-washy. It’s probably still better if I’m not selected, although I won’t say no if we’re prioritizing trying to hit town. I feel like I’ll be pretty obvtown which is good for that, but also I’ll be obvtown regardless and don’t need the master to confirm me per se.

It is more that it looked like they were overselling

This is fair. I feel like I have a duty to go after the master role and that might come across as overselling.

Why is that?

---

I think the risk/reward is in our favor regardless and I wouldn't mind voting there because it sorts them early.

I can't go along with that as it neuters my role and we can sort him by his content, which there is a lack of.

Generally a lack of content would make one harder to sort. Unless you are implying that I can be sorted precisely because I have a lack of content, which in general would imply you scumread me. Could you elaborate on this position or else clarify what you mean?

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Giving this another once over, Lancer is pinging me for scum.

I mostly dislike posts #85 and #100, the first being what the kids call LAMIST and the 2nd is simply that if you are town, you understand the pull that would draw one to wanting to become master. Even if me and Saber did not have strong mechanical reasons to want master, there is a pull that wants to get townread and make the most of your slot, and becoming master achieves that immediately. The "Why is that?" from Lancer basically should already be understood from a town perspective.

Or maybe I’m not egotistical and don’t believe that I have to control the game in order for town to win? And can consider possibilities for other slots feeling the same way, so a player who says they have a “duty” to go for master either thinks very highly of themselves as a player or has reason to believe their mech will outweigh all other mech abilities.

Even further than that, the word “duty” makes it sound like saber believes that town would be hurt by them not being selected as master, as opposed to a purely self-driven reason for wanting it. So there has to be something behind that thought process.

I kind of agree with archer’s 213 re: saber.

Assassin’s read on me is trash and I’m fairly sure is designed to discredit me as someone who was being fairly widely townread.

I’m probably most comfortable with berserker being selected at this point.

As far as your ego is concerned, I thought you made a bit of a show of your magnanimity in your 85. It pinged me and I still don't like it. As for Saber's post, was it not clear to you that at that point Saber thinks "very highly of themselves as a player or has reason to believe their mech will outweigh all other mech abilities?" It seemed quite explicit and clear to me. The "thought process" you wished to get at was discernable already. You are correct that I had the intention of discrediting you; I felt it prudent to air that out and thought the town reads on you came too easily and were unwarranted. Despite this I don't have a full on scumread of you. It is in development. Your latest posts haven't moved the needle.

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Hello, I'm here.

I am claiming Miller. You know what helps to sniff out a false Miller? Becoming the master!

My NP goes through this. I am surprised that miller would be a thing in this setup.

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Does anyone have serious objections to Saber getting the boost.

I'd like to move on.

I'm treating the master selection as equivalent to an elimination in terms of informational value. It hurts the collective if there wasn't any competition involved. What makes this so different to you, as your desire to move on so implies?

Again, Assassins motivation was never the initial master. They admitted as such.

Lancer is the easiest read in the game followed by Archer, it’s part of why Moon’s readslist is so awkward.

I feel like you need to be more skeptical of people than just seeing the first layer of an onion and being like, "yup, that's all there is"

Who are you talking about here, me or Moon? If me (which I originally assumed), what layers do you think I have?

---

Ruler is obvious town. Although I haven't absorbed all the links, there have been parts of their posts that have exactly mirrored my thoughts to a tee. Reading Saber's recent posts still make me think they are town, so I am quite concerned by Ruler's assessment of Saber. I would like to sort that out somehow.

[Servant Assassin]

As for Beserker's entry, I mean... I can't say it's a particularly bad choice, I mildly townread him. Not thrilled its coming in this late when I feel the opportunity should have more organically happened when me and saber made our bids. The only other option at this point I see town possibly consolidating around is lancer, should he choose to make it.

[Servant Assassin]

To this end, while Servant Archer may have declared they're not the best choice for mastership, they are the first servant who I feel lacks corruption. In the rvs, it is difficult to reliably differentiate between the pure and the corrupt, however, Servant Archer seems to genuinely be integrating into our group without deliberately trying; Servant Archer's early stances appear pure of heart.

Were we to be in a stage where we were to eliminate the corrupt with our votes, 162 would earn it from Servant Foreigner. If Servant Foreigner is corrupt, I believe 164 provides evidence Servant Assassin is pure. 170/171 do nothing to dissuade me from my belief in Servant Foreigner's corruption, but on a surface level may indicate the ones attacked are pure. (Admittedly though, it's not impossible for Servant Caster to be engaged in theatrics. The later stages of page 8 make me inclined to believe otherwise, that Servant Caster may be pure of heart.)

These two @alter-ego. For the 2nd specifically the theatric comment wrt caster/foreigner as my thoughts hovered there at page 7 until page 8. I know you found the archer comment trivial but his first post jump-started my town read of him as it did for Ruler.

[Servant Assassin]

As a note about the miller claim, my ability is more complicated than "select target - learn alignment". It will however produce an 100% effective un-counterable cop result.

[Servant Assassin]

When you're scum hunting would you say you identify scum more often than average?

I'd like to think so, although my more confident reads are townreads that generally fall on town.

[Servant Assassin]

It also seems strange to have a miller and a "miller-proof" cop - unless we also have a non-miller proof cop, and I don't know how likely it is that Cabd would give us multiple cops

Considering that a lot of these super abilities are probably ***** and that it would take 5 days/nights to charge, most of these abilities will probably not see usage without outside help.

And I don't really believe the miller claim and feel like it was mostly done in reaction to Assassin indicating he had a cop-like ability.

I agree with the last paragraph and I want to believe assassin is lying.

The last sentence of rider's post contradicts your own. If you didn't misspeak here, is your scumread of me really so strong that you'd jump to thinking I am lying, or even that my chances of lying are greater than avenger's.

Imo wanting to be master and feeling a duty to be master are entirely different magnitudes. My question was, what made saber’s play for master go to the level of duty?

The reason I bring up the specific word discrediting is that when people are trying to discredit townreads on me, they’re almost always scum. Because I am easy to read.

Why do you think all your townreads are (fypov “incorrectly”) townreading me and not seeing what you are?

Yes I understand the difference between want and duty, but I also think considering Saber had spent at least three posts saying that they both thought they had good judgment and the strongest role, that the prerequisites for why they'd consider it a "duty" were present.

How pleased I will be then, to add to the very rare cases provided you are town.

As for my town reads all townreading you, at least in two cases they cite post #85 (berserker/ruler) and I disagree completely with their assessment. It's completely possible they've augmented the read somewhere but I don't see evidence for it. Ego's read of you was more measured and I could understand it, unsure where he stands on you now. As for Archer/Caster I've no clue. I'm coming around to Beast being town as well and I don't know his particular reasoning either.

But even with the entire cavalcade of townreads on you, my opinion of your posts do not change.

[Servant Assassin]

@Foreigner, Luckily I know how to play my role and it's not a big deal that I have publicly revealed that my NP is used to determine alignments. Would be vastly superior if I was master which takes the skill out of the role, but I'm doubting that's happening at this point.

do you have thoughts? Don't worry we still got some pages left

Not really.
It's irrelevant to me until I see particular people post after the master selection.

Dislike. Nothing is preventing you from reading the game / scumhunting before a master is selected, and 13/14 of the players have posted by this point. What could you really be waiting for.

[Servant Assassin]

Foreigner, have you read caster's recent posts? Have they affected your read at all if so.

[Servant Assassin]

@Avenger, That is palpably not true. I see very little difference between this phase and a typical D1 of any game. In fact I'd argue the game rolls a bit faster here simply because of the unique mechanic. Please, pretend!

[Servant Assassin]

Altar's posts are polished but I'm pretty confident they aren't manufactured. At the moment he's up there in the tippy top town reads along with caster and ruler.

[Servant Assassin]

Foreigner, have you read caster's recent posts? Have they affected your read at all if so.

still looks bad

Besides what you previously said about caster lining up eliminations, was there anything else that from them that warranted this assessment?

[Servant Assassin]

I could understand the reasons you expressed doubt of Lancer given a significant chunk of their posting was mechanical in nature, but I don't think it's particularly fair to fault them for that given that was simply the subject of discussion at the time. Since the last time we discussed the read I've felt their posting has improved quite a fair bit - 240 felt pure, paranoia about knowing how the scum upgrade works isn't an angle I'd expect scum to take. I liked the indignance of 249 even if I disagreed with the take (because why would someone seeking the master aim to discredit a popular townread?), but that's a light tonal read. The skepticism/wariness of beast in 252 feels town, he's wary of being put into a pocket where I think scum!Lancer probably wouldn't have given the comment a seecond thought, certainly not that long after it had been posted. 262 was good because I had noticed the same thing when reading Ruler's wall, they just said it before I was able to say anything. It also means means they were paying attention and actually analyzing the words, rather than simply glazing them over and going "yep, town".

I could write off 240/249/262 (with regard to 262, I think berserker was alluding to this as lancer's "quick wit" recently), but you may have a point about 252. I do think it's less likely scum question an old town read that was questioned at the time it was made. The only explanation I could give is that at the time lancer had one town read on him (caster's), and now with multiple, would now feel more secure pushing against a single one. Still, a town reason is more likely.

Do you still feel uneasy about Ruler?

[Servant Assassin]

You better mechanically deliver

[Servant Assassin]

And before you do clinch it, an updated rough reads list would be nice. I can track your town reads well enough, but murkier about who's at the bottom of your pile

[Servant Assassin]

@Berserker, Your townreads focus a fair amount on who agrees with you. I find this a significant problem for thread health. A good master/stump cannot be vulnerable to buddying. Every stump game town wins without toxic cheating replaceouts won because of the fact the stumps were open to criticism by town. I'm worried that is not the case because of your townread rational, particularly on Archer and Alter.

I'm just going to use this post as springboard and then segue into a broad holistic overview of my thoughts on various subjects this game.

Firstly with regard to the above, I am not worried whatsoever about berserkers ability to play a town leader role. He's a reasonable player, he does not ignore people, he's diligent, and I'm betting experienced. After his last reads wall any reservations I had as to his alignment are gone. Frankly Saber, as I've seen more of your play, I've grown more skeptical not of your alignment, which I think is still likely town, but of your ability to play competently in general and even to use your role effectively. You have now, and earlier in different contexts, brought up the concept of scum buddying as a tactic to watch out for. I do not think this is something to be overly concerned about this game even if it is happening somewhere, and with regards to berserker, I do think the man is capable of read fluidity. I do not think his top town reads have undergone much change (aside from maybe caster) but I can sense it with how he approaches my own read which looks like its taking more than one curve.

Now were I master, I might have this problem. Whether gained through buddying or not, my confident town reads tend to stick forever once I've made them, and I am extremely stubborn. I still just cannot imagine Caster/Alter-ego/Ruler being scum. Personally the fact that Ruler appears further down most people's reads lists is simply shocking to me. On the flip side, I am having a fair amount of difficulty establishing a solid scum read. The candidates I've thought about this game that remain for me now, namely, lancer/foreigner/avenger/moon caster have not really done anything that is explicitly scummy, that is, something that I can go ahead and say to myself "town never does this," or even "scum will do this a lot more than town would". A few of those names appear in other people's scum reads, but I simply do not have that same decisiveness. Foreigner's a good example of this. The points berserker makes about him to call him lean town, are not things to call someone town over. When I get to Ruler's retort, I think it goes too far in the opposite direction. of the three posts discussed, 162 is null, 171 is definitely a potshot which I don't like but can't say if it's scummy, and 388 is fine to me if a bit pithy. My uncertainty about foreigner doesn't factor in these posts anyway, its how they approach caster, which I find to be on the slight scummy side.

As for the talk around scum's approach to master candidates and resistance therein... I don't really think scum has much of a plan from the empirical evidence. Basically their chance came and went within the first six pages. If people think they go for the mechanic angle, I really don't think saber was their best bet. Perhaps they sold themselves as able to pull it off in their scum PT but kinda doubt it. If anything I'd have thought berserker's method would be more like what scum might try if they tired at all, as it was a bit of a strongman job. The lack of polarization on the choices is unfortunate. There very well might have been some info to be gleaned but I don't consider that a major loss, or a particularly strong worry as some here might.

[Servant Assassin]

Ruler could you tell me, ignoring let's say a supposed fakeclaiming meta, but not any other meta, which posts of saber's you find have scum intent / simply are scummy to you. In a vacuum to me Saber looks town, but I know they are the type of player I can misjudge easily.

pedit @beserker: It's dawning on me that you specifically credit towniness to posts you think scum would filter. I think scum are generally sophisticated enough to be able to fake that kind of unfiltered, in the moment, posting from time to time, so I give it little to no credit most always.

[Servant Assassin]

As to berserker's query, I'd prefer if Ruler/Altar-Ego/Caster were off the table.

I'm not sure I can narrow it down between Moon Cancer / Lancer / Foreigner / Avenger atm. I'm not satisfied with where I'm at right now with scumreads who I don't feel like I can even properly call scumreads. I'm going to reread the thread with fresh eyes and see if I can hone my reads or if there's something I missed.

Berserker, where you planning to go into more detail about me/Avenger after the master selection or before?

[Servant Assassin]

As for me - I don’t necessarily disagree that his early ISO is lacking in content but I think most recently him being surprised at not being put in preferred-elim piles is gut-towny-feeling to me.

I agree with this. I'd add that his entire ISO feels slightly over the null line into town territory.

[Servant Assassin]

I would have loved it. Sadly, I so emulate my class I don't even think I exist to you caster.

[Servant Assassin]

You know, if Berserker turns out to be scum here (and he still could be trolling)... there's a few really good upsides. I won't presume to judge how people ought to view me, but Saber becomes 100% town. And Ruler should become 100% town to everyone (finally). And of course, only 3 scum not 4.

[Servant Assassin]

Hey sorry, I know it'll feel like shit seeing the red if it comes to pass. But at the same time, for me, things really didn't feel right, and at least this offers an explanation and its a good wake up call.

[Servant Assassin]

That was mean

[Servant Assassin]

[Servant Assassin]

My power only cares about whether the person I intend to find the alignment of is scum or not. It can't be tricked as far as I know but I can ask. However the way I use it now changes drastically without being the master and I cannot reveal why because there is counterplay.

[Servant Assassin]

Pretty sure I get the idea. I'll keep that in mind for now. Why include a miller with a role like that, though? That's not really adding up for me.

This was my reaction also upon seeing avenger's claim. Without being master, I would rate my NP as on the weaker side despite the potential to determine an alignment. It may be that there is some other standard cop-like ability in the game although again, considering the flavor / uniqueness / complexity of my all my abilities not even limited to my NP, its hard to imagine that or that there's something as mundane as a miller. (Although I guess my passive is fairly straight-forward so shrug)

[Servant Assassin]

Want to make me a tier list where you are at? Open question to everyone.

I have yet to do a reread, but I'm at

Caster/Ruler/Alter

Beast/Archer/Saber

Rider

Shielder

Lancer/Foreigner/Avenger/Moon Caster

With maybe Foreigner/Avenger as slightly my preferred. This pile is fluid. The 2nd tier town pile needs a once over as well.

[Servant Assassin]

I forgot about the claim beast made. shielder should basically never be eliminated unless beast flips scum first, right?

I read that as a joke, possibly to tease something specific at the time I forget what.

[Servant Assassin]

For real? That's good news then

[Servant Assassin]

It has been a rather busy weekend. I plan to devote a good chuck of time to this game tonight.

[Servant Assassin]

I'm in the process of mulling over a couple isos, one of which is saber's. Before I take the dive there, there are a couple comments to address:

In 805, the first quote is me commiserating with alter, not yourself. As for the 2nd agreeing with someone does not a town read make. Observations like the one about rider are not exclusive stances that come from one alignment, and I'm not going to shy away from agreeing with someone I scumread. If you think I'm treating you like town it's because I don't treat scumreads like worthless gnats whose opinions don't matter, which a lot of other players do.

In 835 Mastina/Ruler asked why I'd think they were 100% town on a berserker scum flip. Simply, intuitively I highly doubt a scumbud takes this hard of a shit on their partner's reads in 509. Is it just 3 reads? sure. Would it tactically be beneficial to them to disagree with someone who was about to become confirm-scum? sure. But I don't believe it would happen on the eve of coronation.

As for ruler's force replace out. I haven't played with mastina in ages but from my memory, mastina as scum makes cases that are 100% grade-A bullshit. Misreps / flawed logic / baseless shit-flinging, the whole lot with a smug confidence with almost no rival. Obviously that's didn't happen here and I'm going to assume that's why people are happy to drop town reads on the slot. All I can say is: at least that's settled.

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On Saber:

I'm not sure how to preface this. Saber is a type of player I have trouble reading. They give off an aura of deep inexperience, are prone to faulty logic, heavy speculation, and paranoia. Is there a cutoff from which such behavior goes from possible of a town player to only being in the purview of scum? In my not particularly extraordinary mafia career, I have yet to see a bottom. There is no rabbit hole too deep from which any one townie will happily dive right into while the rest of everybody looks from the top down with shaking heads. And so, when I do see this happening, there are a good chuck of times I simply attribute it to town when in fact its just scum being audacious.

So what is the case for Saber? Firstly, right off the bat, I am positive Saber claimed their true power. If they were scum with a different one, well I do not think anyone would have the imagination to decide to blast off into being forced to defend the one claimed, which as anyone (normal) can see, is complete shit. However there is a case to be made (and I am leaning this way and will offer it) that Saber may very well have taken this power, and mentally decided to treat it as the next best thing to sliced bread. This is still insanity. No one of us would ever do this, but if Saber's proven anything, they have proven they are insane.

I can't actually show from their posts that saber doesn't think their power is the bee's knees when used early. Almost all are frighteningly consistent on that point. Arguably the very first few posts, like 35 are the only cracks there as Saber's other posts tend to signal that they think they are well-suited to the power (see 77, 205, 206, and 218) which would suggest they do in fact like the power. The context for 208 is actually what's happening right now, judgement time, but it is also consistent with someone who knows their power isn't all that good and less likely to come from someone who believes their power is good, for would we reasonable people not find Saber's oversell completely justified given the godlike power they claim to have? Why should Saber worry at all?

There are a couple posts in the iso I don't like but can't make up my mind if they are AI or simply make it clearer that Saber is selfish. Namely, 206 and more recently 909. The first is quite unsympathetic and the 2nd one really just discounts the fact objectively scum would have more to fear from a 100% guaranteed cop check than the mystery option. What moves me over the edge though is a couple of perspective inconsistencies: The paranoia of buddying. It exists in posts 235, 468, 472, and 520. By itself, possibly just overused diction stolen from 2015er newborns. But it really doesn't jive with posts like 316, 474, and to a lesser extent 909. That is, one cannot be both scared of buddying and argue that scum is trying to push over town by not supporting/advancing Saber's bid. Individually, each stance might be plausible to Saber, but I don't see a way to reconcile these.

I know I've basically thrown the kitchen sink here at Saber but I'm being as thorough as I can. And even still I'm not sure there isn't a better elimination option.

[Servant Assassin]

I don't find Moon Caster's iso nearly as bad as others but I want some more.

Alter Ego has been in the bottom of my reads for a very long time. Check my ISO for reason(s).

The last, and only, specific reason to scumread Alter came from post 238. I don't find it convincing. How has that read matured over time and what specific posts can you point to as to support your conclusions?

[Servant Assassin]

wow, NS really improved since I last played with him. As for the gladiate I'm waiting for Avenger to confirm it was him.

[Servant Assassin]

I don't think this is a blatant attempt to save Moon Cancer. It doesn't make sense, we have two eliminations in the day, all this does if Avenger is scum is put him in danger faster.

I acknowledge that Moon Cancer was probably going to be the elimination had this not occurred. But there's very little stopping them from being the 2nd elimination of the day as things stand anyway.

My instinct is that avenger is more likely to be town from this, although has become a liability. I'm going to read foreigner's iso.

[Servant Assassin]

Couple things,

Before any of this happened I probably would have voted Saber. However I've reread foreigner, avenger, and moon caster and I now think it's prudent to eliminate Moon Caster. Rereading the early game, I dislike their early read on Alter more than I previously did. The lack of update or more detailed explanation when pressed should not come from a player who was frustrated that the rest of town were in fact townreading Alter. I still find the shift in the rest of their reads plausible. Foreigner's iso was less bad than I thought it was, but I still don't like the approach to caster. The interaction between Foreigner and Moon Cancer does not appear to be a bus to me. I still lean town on avenger.

VOTE: Moon Cancer

[Servant Assassin]

Lancer, can you really not interpret how I feel about Saber in 1007? Because otherwise 1314 is a massive misrepresentation of my argument within. 1268 should also provide a context clue in case you really weren't sure. You've similarly reduced that post too as a "reaction" even though you referenced 1195 elsewhere. Wouldn't that be better for your reaction criteria, or was that poor as well?

[Servant Assassin]

Besides Alter cementing town status even harder if possible, this from Foreigner

I know when some is scum when they give awful excuses to push me and Cancer is good example of it.

is too committed too early to be a bus. I'd ask avenger to consider it this.

I'll take a look at the relationship between Moon Caster and Saber, but I'm going to

prudently

treat Moon's reads as being WIFOM.

[Servant Assassin]

I am loathe to reconsider my town reads on both Caster and Ruler.

I read for Saber's posts to see the interactions between them and Moon Caster and I find it largely a wash. Posts 235 and 472 gave me a sense of TMI. Can one buddy from just a naked reads list without direct interaction? That would also not be my first conclusion say, were my name up there. I'd be thinking "hey maybe this person has some cool and interesting things to say". The follow-up reads list has but one scum read, and it is Moon. It does not say why Moon is scummy in any detail.

The vote of Moon Caster, however, is well placed: 3rd on a budding wagon. The first half of the reason behind it is plausible enough and shared by others (personally not me), unsure about the "throw mud and see what sticks part". Maybe? 238 I suppose qualifies.

I'm still likely to vote Saber. However, I'm once again having trouble seeing anyone else coming close to being particularly scummy. A problem for another day perhaps.

[Servant Assassin]

There is a temptation to leave Saber to another day only because of the traffic analyst ability which ought to function close to a cop. However, I can't see an alternative elimination. Something like Avenger feels like a punt.

VOTE: Saber

To that special someone, Assassin sends his regards~

[Servant Assassin]

Is that a role related assessment?

[Servant Assassin]

hmm. Beast gets to know shielder is town, Lancer confirms himself (presumably).

I'd like to trade in my NP please.

[Servant Assassin]

Instead of, I don't know -- joining the bus?

I think individual scum members can have individual motivations. You'd think in scum PTs there'd be coordination in the sense of "all together now, bus moon!!" but rarely does that happen with precision. I do think there was probably a realization that members would have to bus moon in any case though.

Since I typed that up I took a look at side by side isos of Foreigner/Saber/Votecounts.

Originally I went into today thinking foreigner was town and avenger would be scum more due to POE than anything, but I do think there is a case to be made that foreigner could have bussed Moon Cancer. I wouldn't say it's a strong case though. Saber and Foreigner expressed scumreads on Moon Cancer at about the same time, so my previous assessment that foreigner's scumread was too committed and too early to be a bus might not be true if the scumteam decided on a strategy of bussing Moon Cancer The combination of 840/841, and [urlhttps://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=12876162#p12876162]1031[/url] don't quite flow together nicely. Saber was one of the few Moon Cancer votes at the time of 840/841 so why is Saber just null?

Foreigner has trouble expressing himself well, so it's hard to parse what he thought about Saber at any particular time. This is especially true when the discussion relating to resistance/the lack thereof to Saber's master wagon occurred earlier. I spent a while looking at it and still cannot understand the thought process behind it at all.

As for avenger I don't share Archer's sentiment that's he's clearly town (or Rider's that he's clearly scum). I think he's firmly null by play.

[Servant Assassin]

So... My NP conditionally creates a neighborhood, and the condition is whether my target is town or scum. Unsure if that's relevant but I see Shielder/Rider saying stuff about Neighborhoods thought I'd add that to the mechanical mix.

[Servant Assassin]

(which is why it goes through millers, wouldn't be affected by beserker's passive, etc.)

[Servant Assassin]

Instead of, I don't know -- joining the bus?

I think individual scum members can have individual motivations. You'd think in scum PTs there'd be coordination in the sense of "all together now, bus moon!!" but rarely does that happen with precision. I do think there was probably a realization that members would have to bus moon in any case though.

Since I typed that up I took a look at side by side isos of Foreigner/Saber/Votecounts.

Originally I went into today thinking foreigner was town and avenger would be scum more due to POE than anything, but I do think there is a case to be made that foreigner could have bussed Moon Cancer. I wouldn't say it's a strong case though. Saber and Foreigner expressed scumreads on Moon Cancer at about the same time, so my previous assessment that foreigner's scumread was too committed and too early to be a bus might not be true if the scumteam decided on a strategy of bussing Moon Cancer The combination of 840/841, and 1031 don't quite flow together nicely. Saber was one of the few Moon Cancer votes at the time of 840/841 so why is Saber just null?

Foreigner has trouble expressing himself well, so it's hard to parse what he thought about Saber at any particular time. This is especially true when the discussion relating to resistance/the lack thereof to Saber's master wagon occurred earlier. I spent a while looking at it and still cannot understand the thought process behind it at all.

As for avenger I don't share Archer's sentiment that's he's clearly town (or Rider's that he's clearly scum). I think he's firmly null by play.

now with fixed tags.

[Servant Assassin]

Works for me, anyone that enters my neighborhood will be town anyway.

[Servant Assassin]

Actually on that note I probably should ask avenger:

For the purposes of any role targeting you, are you considered aligned with the mafia? Or does that apply only to investigative roles meant to get a result on your alignment?

[Servant Assassin]

Assassin, Rider, Caster. To obvtown

Caster was and is town,

Rider has been obvtowning for this entire day phase.

[Servant Assassin]

No thank you. I don't mind existing in the state of a perennial null read for the time being. Now if only someone could charge my NP up.

[Servant Assassin]

I personally found that comment about saber catching moon more of a throwaway comment, less an attempt to influence how people read saber than simply a matter of fact recitation of previous history.

cut: No I'm not a PT cop. My NP is as follows: I target a player in an attempt to neighborize them. If they are town, this happens. If they are not, this does not happen.

[Servant Assassin]

Why search for town investigative roles over watching primo targets like Archer/Alter which will more often than not show 1) doctors if you're looking for town and 2) scum killing there.

[Servant Assassin]

The number is more like 3 and I'd argue they were all better targets than beast. What do you get out of finding an investigative role? At best a confirmation when they claim and say beast is town/scum. A small plus but an insignificant one. On any other target you'd have a better chance of detecting scum.

[Servant Assassin]

The thing is it doesn't take a genius to figure this out, just a town mindset.

[Servant Assassin]

So, I am thinking that the last 2 scum are inside of [

Foreigner, Avenger, Rider, Caster

], and we can probably just kill all 4, and this game is just won already.

Which is a bit sad tbh

Spoiler:

Like, it just can't be any of

Berserker, Lancer, Shielder

mechanically.

I think that

me

and

Alter Ego

have both hit the point where we should not be under any suspicion any more.

I am pretty confident calling

Assassin

town after the Saber flip (and seeing his np claim dispelled any lingering doubts)

This is my only town read people might want to argue with me over, but I think

Beast

is just town here as well.

So, I think that there is 1 in [

Foreigner, Avenger

] and 1 in [

Caster, Rider

]

Pretty much this. I still think Caster/Rider are a tad more likely to be town than beast though. I do believe that once avenger/foreigner and inevitably one flips scum there's probably going to be a mechanical solve soon enough for the other.

[Servant Assassin]

I think its avenger. I'll mull over it a bit.

[Servant Assassin]

the only thing to be wary of is that there might be a scum redirector based on shielder's role. possibly.

[Servant Assassin]

I'm going to sleep. good night

[Servant Assassin]

Now that I'm cleared and it probably doesn't matter, in case I do die, I gave my charm to Alter (D1)... which means roleblocking him won't clear him etc (don't do it). My flip will make it clear what it does.

I'll take a look at rider/avenger's isos at some point.

[Servant Assassin]

Now that I'm cleared and it probably doesn't matter, in case I do die, I gave my charm to Alter (D1)... which means roleblocking him won't clear him etc (don't do it). My flip will make it clear what it does.

I'll take a look at rider/avenger's isos at some point.

did you do anything last night?

I am sorry I blocked you but if you didn't actually have any actions I guess it didn't matter except to clear you

@.@

I did nothing, I'm more of a do stuff in the day kind of guy.

[Servant Assassin]

I did a reread of Beast/Rider/Avenger/Alter, who are realistically the only people that could be scum at this point (barring Beast's result being sullied by a redirector). I can only see rider/alter/beast as town, and avenger only as possible scum despite not thinking his iso is so bad.

So I'm basically ready now.

Standing by with a shiv.

[Servant Assassin]

VOTE: Avenger

[Servant Assassin]

I semi turned my brain off yesterday because nothing besides avenger made sense as scum to me. None of Rider/Alter/Beast make sense as scum to me today either. And of course, Lancer is town from avenger and Caster is now more strongly confirmed as well per beast.

I think it's important to think about mass-claiming at this point. A lot of information is out there and there's not much else to lose.

[Servant Assassin]

Reread again.

I simply cannot reach a conclusion between Rider/Alter/Beast. I can't make myself see any as scum and think it consistent with their play.

So I'm at a loss. I cannot see any avenues of questioning or any of the typical scumhunting maneuvers that are applicable in this scenario.

I am also not willing to debate the clears so far. Caster would have to be a ninja of some sort and I'd have to be a strongman (and avenger would have to not know how to read to negate lancer's clear).

[Servant Assassin]

For me the only way forward is a mass claim. I'm putting my faith in mechanics.

I am happy to start since the rest of my abilities from what I've already claimed are inconsequential.

[Servant Assassin]

I am ascetic during day phases

I have a 1-shot announcing fruit vender ability that I haven't used only because doing so would make it obvious which servant I was if anyone did a little lore digging, and I couldn't figure out a good use for this, but I'll use it tonight for kicks I guess.

I had a 1-shot protective charm that I gave to Alter D1. It prevents the wearer from being affected by a single debuff (which I've since found out only includes such things like Post Restrictions and other ailments that last over time. So when I said roleblocking wouldn't work... well actually it would be fine). If the wearer would be affected by a debuff, instead the talisman would convert it into 5 stars of NP charge for the wearer. So basically, if Alter used their own 1st ability on themselves (if they can), they'd charge their NP.

And finally my NP which is activated during the Day, will offer an invitation to my target to join a neighborhood (the offer is confirmable since it will happen same day it is offered). They can decline (which is akin to a scumclaim), but if they accept, one of two things happen. If they are town they join the hood that night and we have a lovely time. If they are scum, nothing happens. I would not know the difference between a declination and scum accepting functionally.

My NP is available today. I will be using it on whomever we don't eliminate that's still a viable scum candidate.

I can't help but think I'm going to die horribly tonight as my NP is probably the most threatening of the lot, and was hoping their was still a protective role. But either way I'll be out of Beast's eliminate pool right quick!

Caster can claim next

[Servant Assassin]

And finally my NP which is activated during the Day, will offer an invitation to my target to join a neighborhood (the offer is confirmable since it will happen same day it is offered). They can decline (which is akin to a scumclaim), but if they accept, one of two things happen. If they are town they join the hood that night and we have a lovely time. If they are scum, nothing happens. I would not know the difference between a declination and scum accepting functionally.

My NP is available today. I will be using it on whomever we don't eliminate that's still a viable scum candidate.

Slight update, since apparently I got a bit confused on the wording. I am informed if the target accepts the invite, but we don't get to talk until the start of night (if town, otherwise nothing is created if scum).

@Rider, it is almost autowin. Sadly scum have a single out. They accept the invitation, then kill me in the night, so I never get the chance to tell the town if a PT was created.

[Servant Assassin]

Incidentally this was why I wanted the master. I already could not easily be stopped because of my passive asceticism during the day which is the phase I cast my NP. So no roleblock fears, but I had no means to protect myself after casting, and master would have granted me that.

[Servant Assassin]

It's fine to be paranoid. In particular I've been aware of the more neutral attitudes people take toward me simply because I've generally been reserved this game and don't have a high post count or activity. That's just my style of play in general and often I get eternally null read for it.

So even if I personally think I'm slightly more clear than caster (only because an explicit scum strongman flipped already), if Beast wanted to consider me just because it is hard for me to fault it. Of course the scum motivation for doing so is obvious. I believe Lancer is actually the most mechanically clear unless I missed something big because Avenger said the mod confirmed to him that Lancer was town. I really hope VFP's reading acuity is not so bad as to get that wrong.

I get the sense of trying to survive from Beast more than say you Rider, but I don't put the same value on how intrinsically scummy that is.

As far as claims go, I would have liked full information from Caster/Lancer (I really don't see a reason Caster has to hold back), but yes it is strange that beast gets both information on a starting clear + an investigative role + an ability that flavorwise is in sheilder's department. That said, Cabd definitely has taken pains to defy expectations for the power levels of abilities and NPs, so outguessing the mod in that area is quite difficult.

[Servant Assassin]

I also think Rider's line of play with regards to his abilities are perfectly reasonable.

[Servant Assassin]

What made you decide to shoot for the master and leave your comfort zone? I remember you already mentioning the mechanical why I'm interested in hearing about your personal why.

The decision to go for master was purely on a mechanical basis. Any personal feelings I had about being confirmed town never entered my mind. I think my dayplay would be exactly the same.

@Rider, I can understand the frustration about clears moseying around. I've reread the thread several times now and I can't come up with anything definitive aside from the universal "I think Alter is quite town, and Beast/Rider are just below." I quite honestly do not have a preference as to who is eliminated between you and beast. Any case you could come up with for one or the other has plenty of mitigating factors. Perhaps if this were e-lo and it was just us three, I'd really have to slog for it.

We have 4 days left. Cabd has been very good at replying to me in my notes PT when I have questions but I do want to do my NP in a timely fashion. That is, decide on a elim, I send an invitation, wait a day for confirmation of receipt and acceptance from the invitee, and then my confirmation that they accepted. I don't want it to come down to the wire and not have time to switch over to scum that cheekily decline and wait out to the deadline. Not that any of what I said is likely, and we have some time still, but I'd like people to be aware.

I'm going to trust Caster/Lancer know what they are doing by holding back information. I don't know what Caster even targeted me with as I was not informed of anything happening to me last night.

[Servant Assassin]

Why do you think Alter is town Assassin?

I'll give a laundry list:

Broadly, their engagement with every single person in the game has been exemplary.
I am hard pressed to see post 239 as an exchange between scum buddies (even if bussing moon was the strat de jour) mainly because of the two lines "I did not give a justification" followed by "Oh, I see, haha. Very clever of you."
This may be my own bias, but I liked the way they approached all my questions about their read on you early in the game
It is really really hard to fake the emotions displayed against avenger (and to a lesser extent foreigner). I have known certain scum players to ham it up but it's a rarity.

These to me are the most tangible. I value what I have above over say, voting foreigner early D2.

[Servant Assassin]

This may be my own bias, but I liked the way they approached all my questions about their read on

lancer

early in the game

Should read as so. I had looked at lancers posts and mentally thought I was addressing him for some reason.

[Servant Assassin]

Man, it's so sick.

I simply cannot read any of Beast/Alter/Rider as scum at all. Holistically you guys just look all town to me. Basically all the +ev's in Alter's assessment of both Rider/Beast to me are really strong ++++s compared to the minuses. The same could be said for Alter though no one did the +- ev thing for them (I just have a good idea in my own headspace).

Not that scum is necessarily incapable of it, but the sheer amount of critical thinking / solve Alter has displayed over the game makes it very unlikely that they are scum to me. I can't support that elimination.

Between rider and beast, I think overall Rider's posts are a bit more nuanced when they proactively analyze and form reads. There's definitely a few misses. For example reading that last interaction with Lancer is just flat-out wrong. Beast isn't uncapable either, but maybe it's just the snark mixed in that dilutes it occasionally for me here and there.

The biggest mitigating factor for me would be the fact that Beast effectively cleared Caster when I guarantee they would have been a juicy mis-elimination target for scum right now. Perhaps not a 100% clear that people wouldn't bypass but its a hard play to make if you're going to proabably fight ego/rider. Then again, Caster clearing me in that scenario might not have been expected. And I definitely was on the menu too until then.

I'm really sorry if people find this rather paltry summary not cutting it, but I really don't have amazing insights to point to to clear or condemn anyone. We are running out of time and I want to get my NP out efficiently and as effectively as possible. I would like Lancer to basically pick the elimination out of rider/beast while I NP the other. I truly am sorry for whoever gets the boot (even if you're scum!) because you guys really knocked it out of the park.

[Servant Assassin]

Realistically 12-24 hours.

This is what will happen.

Once the concensus is made I will post and then submit my target.
Cabd will deliver the invite asap to my target.
Target will need to post they received the invite and immediately accept.
Cabd will tell me asap if the target accepted or declined the invite.
I will post confirming if the invite was accepted or declined.

Hopefully this process will not take long and we will have time to adjust if something funky happens.

[Servant Assassin]

I've just sent the invite to beast

[Servant Assassin]

@Beast, at your earliest convenience, please confirm that you have received the invitation and then accept it. When it gets back to me, I'll confirm that you have and then we can proceed with the day.

[Servant Assassin]

I'd rather we just end the day with no elimination instead.

I... am okay with this, only because we're at 6. I don't think I care if scum get another charge for their NP

[Servant Assassin]

Ya....

I fucked up by not asking about the invite prompt ahead of time. I didn't realize you would be informed of that. But yes that's correct. My white lie has been busted. All that means if that if you were scum and declined, no one would be the wiser for it.

[Servant Assassin]

As for no eliminating, it has its pluses and minuses. You eventually lose the voice of a cleared townie (likely me in this case) but you gain another round of night actions which possibly could help. I don't think the numbers going in to the next day of 4 with 2 clear / 2 uncleared (e-lo) vs. 5 with 2 clear / 3 uncleared (2 elims) make too much difference.

[Servant Assassin]

Wow. that's actually brilliant.

I'm embarrassed I didn't think of that.

[Servant Assassin]

I think I send fruit if Beast is scum, just to account for the small possibility that Caster is scum who had already used a roleblock. My target won't matter, as the fruit if it goes through, is public knowledge.

If beast is scum and has their own roleblock potential, well, I'll risk that.

[Servant Assassin]

That opens up a false guilty though.

[Servant Assassin]

Fine I'll go with your plan Rider.

[Servant Assassin]

Perhaps everyone can check in one last time to digest this and then I can.

[Servant Assassin]

I'm ready.

VOTE: Rider

[Servant Assassin]

That's my fruit.

Why wouldn't Beast dying not make sense? I was reasonably sure either him or me would die. He was about to be cleared.

[Servant Assassin]

From this we can be reasonably sure scum does not have, or could not redirect, or you'd see me dead instead of beast and no spooky ghost.

[Servant Assassin]

I'd like for caster to claim. It's between her and alter. Me and beast were trying to figure out which but didn't reach any definite conclusions. Beast assured me that Caster could not be ascetic and was trying to figure out what role could possibly account for a false clear.

[Servant Assassin]

but two of her skills are confirmed.

they are? as far as I know, none of her abilities are.

[Servant Assassin]

Did the one she used on you night 3 do something?

Not to my knowledge.

[Servant Assassin]

We thought of that. The only other thing we could come up with was catch-all godfather. One of those "all investigative results returns the best possible outcome" kind.

[Servant Assassin]

What's your third skill Assassin?

My passive skill is being ascetic in day phases.

everything else has been confirmed.

I'll go check what from Caster's claim can be confirmed.

Side note: Considering it seems both Alter and Caster had neighborhoods with Berserker, who did he award the extra *s to?

[Servant Assassin]

I was leaning against eliming Avenger, for a mechanical reason (that I do not wish to reveal the details of)

I think Archer jailkept Avenger N1

[Servant Assassin]

I personally like basking in that E-lo glow.

Yes Lancer I was referring to the bonus stars berserker could distribute. I figure he might have mentioned them. This is only pertinent to make sure Caster could not have access to their NP N2.

As me and beast were discussing, while the mechanical solution is obvious, he thought playwise Me/caster were not up to Alter's standards, which I agreed with. And I said that until I could make a plausible non-mechanical case for Alter being scum I would not feel comfortable voting there. This isn't to say Caster's play is bad or anything close to that. Beast couldn't come up with a case either, only noting that on his reread, his argument with Alter D1 made him emotionally unable to logically analyze Alter correctly, saying he alternately thought Alter was scum raging to being in the townbin the next moment. I thought that exchange was a rare minus for Alter.

[Servant Assassin]

I was expecting way more of a fight from whoever is scum. assassin what are you thinking right now?

I received the other * from berserker by the way. Doesn’t seem like he claimed it in either neighborhood.

That it's Alter. Basically, I think the mechanics are too strong to ignore. It's like not going all in with Kings just because Aces exist.

Caster highly likely did not have their NP N2. The only unconfirmed ability caster has claimed is the roleblock on me.. and it doesn't make any sense from any angle I can think of to fake that on me.

That and I think if Alter were town and realized mechanics are not in your favor, you'd really need to attack someone on play. Which hasn't happened.

Bit of a double standard I admit, since we've all been lazy too.

[Servant Assassin]

I exist.

Haven't been doing much. Was checking last game's roles to make sure the caster class didn't get a 4th skill or anything. The Anti-hero ability scared me for 1 sec though. I sympathize with Alter's last post, because were I in their position and was town, that's precisely what I'd be feeling.

[Servant Assassin]

I'm going to rip the bandaid off.

VOTE: Alter Ego

[Servant Assassin]

like would roleblocks work on you?

I asked, it does not. It only counters effects like post restriction or an effect that has dome sort of permanence or duration.

[Servant Assassin]

Obviously I was being dumb.

I didn't think so actually. Those last posts from caster were paranoia inducing. But its a relief she isn't scum (or else is overly cautious of lancer's role).

[Servant Assassin]

ugh you can call me an idiot in the postgame if this is wrong but I'm very vulnerable to AtE and Alter Ego just wants it so much more

VOTE: Assassin

So you want Alter to win as scum more than every other town player in the game that is either living or dead? Say what you want about me, but plenty of other people over the course of this game have put in effort.

Please try to play to win.

[Servant Assassin]

I could compile every post I've made about my role. Suffice it to say I have crumbed, hinted, or confirmed every part of it and have done so mostly before the roleblock on me. You have confirmed I'm not ascetic at night, which means to counter your roleblock I'd have either have to have an active ability that does that or a passive that allows me to bypass roleblocks. Foreigner's role is already dedicated to that precise scenario and no flipped scum has shared any ability or any utility.

[Servant Assassin]

I'll devote time to this tomorrow and respond.

VOTE: Alter Ego

I don't think this will turn into a hard decision Lancer. Or at least, it should not. A healthy amount of paranoia is fine, but there is overwhelming evidence - from both mechanics and my play - that ought to lead you to vote for alter.

[Servant Assassin]

2738 covers a decent swathe of the game, and contains a good amount of spin so I'll be neutralizing that where it appears.

At the time of post 320 I was pretty ok with Saber becoming master. And I also thought that despite the very early game run of votes that came saber's way, I had a fair chance to become master myself anyway. Basically at that point I thought the game state was favorable to town the way things were going. Berserker's bid at that point was annoying because 1) I suspected he did not have as strong a power as me/saber if town, 2) I had a feeling I would never surpass their charisma, and 3) that was the kind of adaption I would expect scum to make if the gamestate looked to be unfavorable to them. I was not trying to hide my annoyance.

I think its clear in the 2nd part of the first paragraph of 2738 that Alter cannot possibly believe what he says. My derision towards saber wasn't subtle, and to use that as a reason to suppose there was a behind the scenes antagonism is off the mark too as previously I treated saber amicably. Moreover as we've seen from the copious bussing, and frankly early master bid from saber of what appears to be scum's weakest role, I'd say scum have been playing fairly deliberately.

As far as the commentary on my votes are concerned... I'm more amused than anything that barely a few sentences of reasoning constitutes over-justification. It's a rather facile argument and doesn't even include the longer post devoted to analyzing saber pre-moon cancer flip. As far as the last votes on Avenger and Rider are concerned, the context of each was determined by POE. Avenger was the only one at the time that didn't look incredibly town and was not cleared. That vote didn't need any particular justification and I think that was understood by everyone. In fact, Alter's repeated assertions that they thought avenger was town, and that that thought was a point in their favor is one of the two substantially scummy things alter has ever done this game. There was not a sufficient reason to ever think Avenger could not be scum. As for rider's vote and the asscioated accusation of fence sitting accompanying it, I think I was not alone in feeling deep uncertainty. I also could not find anything to hold against him and present as some material to constitute a case.

As far as my NP is concerned, perhaps I did not play it optiminally. I think maybe I did implusively out it without thinking it through. But I did have a useful power scum knew existed, I was cleared so I easily could have been a NK target, and for whatever reason, Beast was discounting that clear at the start of day. And despite whatever you say about optimal play should have been for a town mindset, the claim resulted in a probable mis-elimination instead getting killed. And mind you, scum in my position could so easily have just claimed that they didn't have the stars required to use it, and got back to back miseliminations if Lancer died instead of beast.

[Servant Assassin]

okay these are for assassin.

1. can you explain why you were townreading saber on D1?

Spoiler: relevant quotes

I have now actually had time to read the thread more closely than skimming.

I think it's pretty clear archer is town. Caster and Saber each are relatively towny. I do think a cop shot which would 100% go off (there is literally no way for scum counterplay) to start is just the best option, but if it isn't going to be me, saber is a fine 2nd choice.

I have yet to see anything that comes off as scummy, though beserker's appeal to cabd and the resultant thought to elect a charismatic town leader was off-putting.

@Berserker, Your townreads focus a fair amount on who agrees with you. I find this a significant problem for thread health. A good master/stump cannot be vulnerable to buddying. Every stump game town wins without toxic cheating replaceouts won because of the fact the stumps were open to criticism by town. I'm worried that is not the case because of your townread rational, particularly on Archer and Alter.

I'm just going to use this post as springboard and then segue into a broad holistic overview of my thoughts on various subjects this game.

Firstly with regard to the above, I am not worried whatsoever about berserkers ability to play a town leader role. He's a reasonable player, he does not ignore people, he's diligent, and I'm betting experienced. After his last reads wall any reservations I had as to his alignment are gone. Frankly Saber, as I've seen more of your play, I've grown more skeptical not of your alignment, which I think is still likely town, but of your ability to play competently in general and even to use your role effectively. You have now, and earlier in different contexts, brought up the concept of scum buddying as a tactic to watch out for. I do not think this is something to be overly concerned about this game even if it is happening somewhere, and with regards to berserker, I do think the man is capable of read fluidity. I do not think his top town reads have undergone much change (aside from maybe caster) but I can sense it with how he approaches my own read which looks like its taking more than one curve.

Now were I master, I might have this problem. Whether gained through buddying or not, my confident town reads tend to stick forever once I've made them, and I am extremely stubborn. I still just cannot imagine Caster/Alter-ego/Ruler being scum. Personally the fact that Ruler appears further down most people's reads lists is simply shocking to me. On the flip side, I am having a fair amount of difficulty establishing a solid scum read. The candidates I've thought about this game that remain for me now, namely, lancer/foreigner/avenger/moon caster have not really done anything that is explicitly scummy, that is, something that I can go ahead and say to myself "town never does this," or even "scum will do this a lot more than town would". A few of those names appear in other people's scum reads, but I simply do not have that same decisiveness. Foreigner's a good example of this. The points berserker makes about him to call him lean town, are not things to call someone town over. When I get to Ruler's retort, I think it goes too far in the opposite direction. of the three posts discussed, 162 is null, 171 is definitely a potshot which I don't like but can't say if it's scummy, and 388 is fine to me if a bit pithy. My uncertainty about foreigner doesn't factor in these posts anyway, its how they approach caster, which I find to be on the slight scummy side.

As for the talk around scum's approach to master candidates and resistance therein... I don't really think scum has much of a plan from the empirical evidence. Basically their chance came and went within the first six pages. If people think they go for the mechanic angle, I really don't think saber was their best bet. Perhaps they sold themselves as able to pull it off in their scum PT but kinda doubt it. If anything I'd have thought berserker's method would be more like what scum might try if they tired at all, as it was a bit of a strongman job. The lack of polarization on the choices is unfortunate. There very well might have been some info to be gleaned but I don't consider that a major loss, or a particularly strong worry as some here might.

2.

Spoiler: relevant quotes

As for Beserker's entry, I mean... I can't say it's a particularly bad choice, I mildly townread him. Not thrilled its coming in this late when I feel the opportunity should have more organically happened when me and saber made our bids. The only other option at this point I see town possibly consolidating around is lancer, should he choose to make it.

did you mention me because I was someone that you would support getting master? if no, why mention me if you were still scumreading me? if yes, why?

Early on, I got the impression that Saber was a newbie that wore her heart on her sleeve. The way she talked about her role in the beginning of the game looked genuine to me, from both the fact she was not hesitant to qualify its power and her insistence that she had a duty to become the master. I was a bit disarmed and didn't think a newbie could make all that up out of whole cloth. By the time of the 2nd quote you mention, my opinion of saber's ability to actually analyze the game correctly and competently was low. However, that was in line with what I perceived her skill level to be and nothing she said was obviously scummy to me. It was only after I started to reread isos and have a deep think on the slot that my mind changed.

As for your second question, I was making an observation, not an endorsement or an advertisement . I'm not sure why I even bothered saying that, other than to add context to where I thought the master selection could possibly go at that point, and who perhaps could get away with a bid naturally based on the gamestate at the time (you had townreads, berserker's were not yet established).

this is @ both of you I guess: why do you think caster died last night instead of me?

WIFOM

I don't think there is or would be any significant difference in how e-lo would play out whether you or caster were here instead of the other. With caster dying Alter can throw up caster's last vote at crunch time. Its a perfect time to make stupid decisions. They would not be so impulsive today were they alive. At least I'd hope so, considering they previously thought Alter was scum when compared to beast/rider and the only thing that seemed to have swayed them was ATE, which should have been discarded in the first place.

[Servant Assassin]

god my anxiety is through the roof. I am going to be so happy to put myself out of my misery.

Please take your time. I very much believe it's not a hard decision if you can decide calmly.

I know because its practically the same one I made yesterday, and voting Alter over Caster wasn't hard. (It wasn't

comfortable

, but it wasn't agonizing).

[Servant Assassin]

I'm going to cut through a lot of the minutiae of this game to make what this choice is in simple terms.

It is your prerogative to think Alter's dayplay was better than my own. I freely admit it was, it was better than anyone's. The amount of effort Alter put into the game was unparalleled, they were on all scum eliminations, and I personally with a couple exceptions cannot find much to criticize. If you put that as a point in their favor I'd understand.

But the ones in mine should leave little room for doubt.

I was roleblocked by caster on a night 2, a night with a kill. Caster was not roleblocked by Archer on that night because they blocked Avenger night one 100%. The only way to get through that if I were scum would be if I had a strongman ability, or an ascetic ability, but the flipped scum already have those abilities.

My role has contributed to clearing a townie. Whether you think it was used optimally or not, the effect is the same. And it wasn't any old clear, it was clear at a latter day when mis-elimination options were limited and crucial for scum. And it was one that scum in my position could have easily avoided. Alter, for all their contributions, could not achieve this.

I will also mention here, though it's a less important point, that even yesterday I basically confirmed Caster as town by taking a stance first and voting Alter. Until that point it was obvious that Alter was gunning more for caster. If I was scum the safe option was just waiting out the timer.

[Servant Assassin]

Discard all AtE. I'll await morning thoughts.

[Servant Assassin]

I don't have anything to add except to say that 464 was scum being cheeky and taunting town by exposing the whole team (that 'one scum left to find' was moon cancer).

[Servant Assassin]

Hi Kilga!

I was trying to figure out which player you were but couldn't haha