FGO: Mafia in the Lostbelt - 2 Game Over

[Servant Beast]

I think Lancer has been pretty town by play and they're just clear mechanically too. VFP was indeed unambiguous. If they read it wrong, woops. But that's not something we can help.

[Servant Assassin]

What made you decide to shoot for the master and leave your comfort zone? I remember you already mentioning the mechanical why I'm interested in hearing about your personal why.

The decision to go for master was purely on a mechanical basis. Any personal feelings I had about being confirmed town never entered my mind. I think my dayplay would be exactly the same.

@Rider, I can understand the frustration about clears moseying around. I've reread the thread several times now and I can't come up with anything definitive aside from the universal "I think Alter is quite town, and Beast/Rider are just below." I quite honestly do not have a preference as to who is eliminated between you and beast. Any case you could come up with for one or the other has plenty of mitigating factors. Perhaps if this were e-lo and it was just us three, I'd really have to slog for it.

We have 4 days left. Cabd has been very good at replying to me in my notes PT when I have questions but I do want to do my NP in a timely fashion. That is, decide on a elim, I send an invitation, wait a day for confirmation of receipt and acceptance from the invitee, and then my confirmation that they accepted. I don't want it to come down to the wire and not have time to switch over to scum that cheekily decline and wait out to the deadline. Not that any of what I said is likely, and we have some time still, but I'd like people to be aware.

I'm going to trust Caster/Lancer know what they are doing by holding back information. I don't know what Caster even targeted me with as I was not informed of anything happening to me last night.

[Servant Beast]

Why do you think Alter is town Assassin?

[Servant Lancer]

I reread a bit earlier today and my gut is still telling me that rider is scum

[Servant Lancer]

I do unfortunately have a lot of life stuff going on right now! And it feels a bit like the thread is just rider and beast bickering back and forth and I'm decently sure that the last scum is in those two, and I also felt a little bit better about some of beast's posts on reread. I did promise some more in-depth content today which I'll try to get to soon.

[Servant Lancer]

personally I feel like outguessing Cabd on the setup is a total crapshoot and it makes no real difference to me what people claim or don't claim. I'm not going to get much benefit from knowing the rest of caster's abilities either. Like, people were saying Saber's abilities were anti-scum so they couldn't be scum. I thought Avenger's abilities had to be scum so I voted him, even though I posted on D2 that Avenger and Foreigner are almost never scum together and I wish I had listened to myself or remembered that. so I'm not sure how it's going to help, but if someone mechanically-minded is going to be able to discern whether someone is scum from the abilities, then I wouldn't mind disclosing the rest of my abilities.

[Servant Assassin]

Why do you think Alter is town Assassin?

I'll give a laundry list:

Broadly, their engagement with every single person in the game has been exemplary.
I am hard pressed to see post 239 as an exchange between scum buddies (even if bussing moon was the strat de jour) mainly because of the two lines "I did not give a justification" followed by "Oh, I see, haha. Very clever of you."
This may be my own bias, but I liked the way they approached all my questions about their read on you early in the game
It is really really hard to fake the emotions displayed against avenger (and to a lesser extent foreigner). I have known certain scum players to ham it up but it's a rarity.

These to me are the most tangible. I value what I have above over say, voting foreigner early D2.

[Servant Assassin]

This may be my own bias, but I liked the way they approached all my questions about their read on

lancer

early in the game

Should read as so. I had looked at lancers posts and mentally thought I was addressing him for some reason.

[Servant Alter Ego]

There continues to be a lack of back and forth that was present in their earlier analysis in the game.

Explain? I felt like the opposite in my review, his analysis earlier in the game was much more succint, he only really opened up starting on day 2. That was actually part of why I was suspicious of him.

[Servant Alter Ego]

You've played inflexibly the whole game. People tend to think that scum don't play that way, but I think that there's definitely a stubborn scum archetype out there that you fit. Have you ever interacted in real time with any of the members of the scum team rider? I'm trying to remember if you have.

As a side note, please jump in Alter, I swear to god if you just smile vacantly off to the side while town 1v1 to death as I go into a paranoia spiral I will be this guy -> post game.

Assassin's post makes sense.

Sorry, it's been a very long day for me and I'm only just getting to the game now.

I'm pretty sure Lancer is the strongest clear mechanically.

Kind of want to hear Alter Ego's Rider case now.

I don't have a full-blown case. My feeling yesterday was "Dont really think it's avenger, he's been the least towny of anyone who isn't cleared (or "cleared"). Going through the ISO, I have some points on why he

could

be scum. But it's not concrete. I have views for both possible worlds right now (yes, yes, I know I'm fencesitting). What I'm trying to figure out is what's more likely. But I still need to get through a bit more review first. Hopefully sometime tonight.

[Servant Beast]

Thanks Assassin that is indeed a good post and does not look like partners talking to each other. That makes me feel like I'm probably (hopefully) just overthinking this.

[Servant Beast]

@Alter, I'm comparing his current reads to 855

[Servant Alter Ego]

Beast, what in particular made you believe Saber was town early in the game? You were confident on that read but never particularly elaborated on why.

[Servant Beast]

I empathized with their approach to the master role. The fake mind set they decided to come up with was a bit of aTe that landed directly on my sadbrains center.

...Basically, I thought they were clumsily trying to get the master and were being forthright because they didn't have another approach. Pretty much it was suboptimal, but I could relate and I town binned them for that until I lost that empathy.

Pretty much my empathy center got fooled and I was thinking with the wrong part of my brain.

[Servant Alter Ego]

In fact we should elect Beast. He made the most posts. If he flips town then we can use his vocality to lead and if he flips scum then scum loses the most influential player.

I hope this is a joke post

@Foreigner, are you role playing? In regards to being a foreigner who speaks English as a second language I mean. I feel like I've been reading too deeply into your posts. Your focus seems pretty evenly distributed.

@Archer, I think it's a joke based on their sense of humor. Then again, they have been arguing that the one with the most activity should be mastered, but I took that as a tongue in cheek thing.

@Pedit: I mostly just put rider in there because they hadn't said or done much. It's a pressure thing in the absence of real scum reads that aren't extremely conflicted.

Well, yeah. I had an agenda. I thought Saber was town and had a powerful ability that would be put to good use. I also could empathize with their approach to trying to get the town master slot.
I don't get why you think people are throwing town reads around like candy. It's more like we just don't really explain ourselves. I do that in part because it can put the scum team off balance (or, I'm just scum and have no reasons, teehee)

Rider's post is interesting but need to think on it a lot more to determine if that's coming from town or scum. I'm allergic to long form, well thought out posts. For example I can't tell if Rider is truly weighing my posts and intentions, or going back and forth and just waiting to see where the wind blows before settling down.

As for foreigner, I've just looked at their posts and I find it odd how evenly distributed their addresses to other players are, the general lack of nuance and a confidence that doesn't make sense to me.

Can you clarify what you meant by foreigner's focus seeming "evenly distributed"? I don't understand what you meant by this.

[Servant Beast]

How he engaged with people didn't seem natural from a (fuzzy) statistical perspective. Human brains like to look for patterns, one of mine is just running background bandwidth usage for keeping track of who addresses who and how many words they used to address them and noticed that they seemed to be an outlier in this regard. It was kind of just based on personal experience, an oddity and a question mark to add.

We don't I think naturally talk to every player the same amount. My computer is struggling.

I asked a similar question to Titus when I noticed they hadn't addressed me but had been addressing other players.

[Servant Beast]

it was kind of funny now that I think about it that one of their last posts was a post they addressed to every player alive individually. 1960

[Servant Alter Ego]

How he engaged with people didn't seem natural from a (fuzzy) statistical perspective. Human brains like to look for patterns, one of mine is just running background bandwidth usage for keeping track of who addresses who and how many words they used to address them and noticed that they seemed to be an outlier in this regard. It was kind of just based on personal experience, an oddity and a question mark to add.

We don't I think naturally talk to every player the same amount. My computer is struggling.

I asked a similar question to Titus when I noticed they hadn't addressed me but had been addressing other players.

I had definitely noticed that tendency in your posting to be paying an unusual amount of attention toward who was interacting wtih who. I'm still not sure I understand it, though. Was the assumption that Foreigner was being deliberate in acting with everyone equally? I feel like most people, even as scum, don't really put that much consideration into their interactions.

[Servant Beast]

A lot of my scum hunting in the absence of something particularly accurate is "what are the things that I do as scum that other people might be doing?"
I'm not sure that it's true, but the hypothesis with foreigner is that he wasn't engaging particular players that caught his attention or curiosity, like most of us do. because he wasn't hunting for scum because he was scum. When I'm scum, I worry about things like only interacting with town or only interacting with scum and giving something away through that. So it becomes one task for me to make sure I talk to everybody to one extent or another, even though, I know that this isn't necessarily true for town players hunting for scum. Or that associatives are a particular weakness that scum have. But it's certainly something I look for.

For example, Saber gave Foreigner a town read for a relatively mediocre post early game, it didn't occur to me at the time, but it was a scum partner trying to give their partner a hand in being perceived as townie by the rest of the town by acknowledging their posting.

Another thing I do as scum is that I *intentionally* ignore a town player if I'm in hot water hoping that town's players will notice this after I flip scum. This works sometimes and other times it doesn't. But when I noticed Saber making the rounds in a formalized manner but then they skipped me, I asked them about it because I was aware that because I had supported Saber early that scum them might look to leverage that early mistaken read into a false association. Which I called them out on, but then they called me before affecting a blase' "well, I wasn't doing that" and...I should've probably noticed it but I didn't. they had a good poker face there when I went for a confrontation, I'll admit.

I think scum players are pretty self-aware, or at least I'm pretty self-aware, I miss a lot.

I guess in summary I run numbers in the background in my head and when someone is irregular I ask about it or put it into the mystery pile. It's entirely possible that how foreigner was playing was an idiosyncrasy and had nothing to do with their scum games, I was only pretty sure when a lot more obviously AI things like saying he watched me and becoming belligerent when questioned and pressured in a way out of proportion to the slight. Objectively, watching me made no sense, so, he was lying. I think I mentioned this already, but since he was a tracker too he knew I visited him, so he couldn't lie about who he tracked because he didn't know what my abilities were, it's possible I was lying about being a detective and was actually a tracker. Though, I still think it would have made a lot more sense if he just claimed tracker instead because that was more in line with the suspicions other player's had. Also his justification was of course wrong. buuuuuut this isn't the coaching section of the stands here. I wasn't in a scum PT, so I couldn't tell him not to do these things.

[Servant Caster]

I'm kind of leaning towards Alter Ego being the last scum now because I kind of feel like they are just kind of fence sitting a letting the Rider/Beast 1v1 play out.

Both Rider/Beast sound more genuine in their convictions/beliefs in these last few days, whereas Alter Ego sounds more fence-sitty/careful.

I still don't know who they prefer to execute?

Also on reread there are parts of Alter Ego's iso that I'm not quite fond of on first two skims I will outline them later.

[Servant Caster]

Spoiler: Long Reread

43
63 Initially questions Saber's NP Choices.
92 Kind of a Fence-Sitty/Noncommital.
108 Shades Assassin's Claim
111 Supports Saber's "caginess"
114
119 This is an interesting sequence, question then supports the person who is susp of them?
125 Not sure I believe this statement.

There's a back and forth between Alter Ego / Beast that kind of seems pointless? I'm not sure Alter Ego is playing to determine Beast's alignment as much as they are trying to win the word battle.

233 Decent interaction with Moon Cancer - Challenges them on the scumread. I however get the sense that Alter Ego feels more confident interacting with MC/Foreigner than for example Beast in an adversarial manner - it feels like they are more aggressive in this post than when they play footsie with Beast.

244 Rebukes Beast pushing for Saber by preferring Assassin/Berserker

335 Votes for Berserker

Another shit fight with Beast over some stuff that's kind of meh? I dunno what's going on here.


435 Doesn't like Avenger


441 Defends Foreigner?


449 Reads-list here

479 Re-iterates Moon Cancer is bad

533 Defends Foreigner's "anti-consensus" read on Caster

553 Defends Foreigner's statement about their notification PM


557 Continued Defense of Foreigner

some more fighting with Beast here.


733 is convinced Caster is town because of her terrible "case" on berserker

They invite berserker to self-hammer and their reaction to the self hammer troll is:


739
742
743

I dunno about this reaction. In the moment I felt it was pretty townie but I guess feelings fade with time? I wouldn't say it's impossible for this to be faked to be townread?

I have a lot of paranoia now :< I have seen scum use faked "twilight" reactions to get townread and I've read this over and over again and I'm not sure I am as sure this is a town reaction anymore.

813 Tells Foreigner to let me go as I am town. <3 Such a sweetie I feel so bad about this paranoia (⌒_⌒;)


866 Readlist - tries to reorient Foreigner?


867 Shades Saber for "fading"


906
911

Pretty good reaction to Saber claim, definitely doesn't feel planned out or S/S :<

937

First vote on the Saber wagon - pretty good post

1041 Pretty good post? I'm feeling like if AE is scum I'm just ending up pocketed all over again :<


1060 Back to Moon Cancer


1076 Am I being paranoid or does it feel like Alter Ego is deciding which scum-bus will set their team up better for the long term?


1083 Campaigning for Moon Cancer death.

Its at this point Notty gets iced and then the Gladiate happens.

AE goes very hard against Avenger and that makes a lot of sense, a lot of what they say is very passionate and emotional and I'm not sure scum!AE would be capable of going that hard versus a townie who had just gladiated their scum partner.

1184
1186

this sequence in particular feels quite over the top if they really are scum defending scum!foreigner here.

mm did I manage to get pocketed by AE a second time? I'm quite tired and I'll continue this tomorrow I guess.

[Servant Caster]

I guess what stuck out to me on re-read was this section:

If they're town they're a worthless POS who deserved to die anyway.

Boo hoo, you fucking baby. How hard is it to claim your role when asked?

It just feels a bit much.

I know AE is an emotional player who has lashed out at people previously but Foreigner is basically dead here so I don't understand the anger from a Town!POV, like why would you get upset at someone you believe is scum ? Whereas I can kind of understand why Scum!AE might be mad at Scum!Foreigner for covering for Foreigner all game and Foreigner refusing to even claim a role and continuing to be caustic. Like AE can only be expected to carry Foreigner so far?

I'm not really very certain or feel good about any of this though >.>

It just feels like the game slowed down and when that happens I tend to get overly paranoid thoughts in my head :<.

I miss LukeWarm and Notty : (

[Servant Rider]

So I was going to case Beast's Day 1 play this game, because calling Beast scum over and over again has become my new favorite hobby.

But the interactions pointed out by Caster in 2321 has me curious.

If they're town they're a worthless POS who deserved to die anyway.

If they're town they're a worthless POS who deserved to die anyway.

do it few more times and enjoy your loss

Boo hoo, you fucking baby. How hard is it to claim your role when asked?

Go put your head in trashcan.

It is not hard and you enjoy doing things without reasoning.

Mainly in that I don't understand why this interaction exists between these two. Particularly the bolded part.

I feel like at this point I just want it to be Beast, because I think their interactions still look really bad, especially on Day 1, but I guess there's actually a universe where I could be wrong.

[Servant Rider]

I guess 2057 could maybe make sense from a perspective where Alter Ego decided to actively go against their own scumteam to deepwolf this game (supporting Berserker over Saber, bussing Moon Cancer, leading wagon on Saber, eventual support for a Foreigner elimination over Avenger on Day 2).

I don't know how much I actually believe that though.

[Servant Rider]

Alter Ego's early Day 1 play feels so town though.