Open 828 | The Brethren Coalition | Game Over!

[Hakai]

Co mod ego have fun y'all~

Fun? This is mafia, we get toxic and condemn innocent villagers!

Enchant, how's it feel to be the most trusted player so far?

HEAL: Farren
HEAL: Enchant

HEAL: enchant

HEAL: STD

My god! You've figured out how to heal STD's?

HURT: Cyrus

This is easy, got one already

Is this post serious?

I'm afraid of commitment, I'm just slinging the hurt around for now

Saying this out loud in the thread is probably slightly towny.

I will work with you pav let's remove you and I and look for the 5 why is enchant town? Can we trust std?

Hard to explain but cyrus's intentions fel pure?

I will work with you pav let's remove you and I and look for the 5 why is enchant town? Can we trust std?

Why would I remove myself?

I find it hard to trust STD but who knows

Why?

[Hakai]

Co mod ego have fun y'all~

Fun? This is mafia, we get toxic and condemn innocent villagers!

Enchant, how's it feel to be the most trusted player so far?

HEAL: Farren
HEAL: Enchant

HEAL: enchant

HEAL: STD

My god! You've figured out how to heal STD's?

HURT: Cyrus

This is easy, got one already

Is this post serious?

I'm afraid of commitment, I'm just slinging the hurt around for now

Saying this out loud in the thread is probably slightly towny.

I will work with you pav let's remove you and I and look for the 5 why is enchant town? Can we trust std?

Hard to explain but cyrus's intentions fel pure?

I will work with you pav let's remove you and I and look for the 5 why is enchant town? Can we trust std?

Why would I remove myself?

I find it hard to trust STD but who knows

Why?

out of the 9 which two do you distrust the most.

I don't know yet.

I've played 2 games with StD. In one he was scum, the other is ongoing. I just have a hard time reading him.

I see.

Hey guys, I only know a few people here

Errr I meant ahoy mateys I've only seen some of yous 'round'ere

This post is very slightly towny, scum probably won't be awkward in-thread.

cyrus - you come across to me like you're in wheeling-and-dealing mode. Is that where your head is now?

VOTE: Farren

I will never comprehend your logic. I just healed myself. Or is that's looked charismatistic?
I don't mind though.

So we should think of five people we fully trust to be town and vote them. If we get 5 right we win yay lets see if we can do it.

People die if they are killed.

Hey I say go ahead and single me out. I have to decied who I think is town as well.

So I think pev and enchant could be scum. Or feral and pev or feral and enchant but I won't be voteing these 3 for the 5.

So basically you decided to not go in coalition.
You also throws me, feral and and pev from this one.
That's 4 people already. So basically you think everyone else is town and coalition locked?
Good luck with that.

If I was scum why would I do that?

Oh well.

Town motivation to remove self:
... Uuuh. I really can't see reason. Give me? Because you basically lowering chances for instant win if you keep self out.

Scum motivation:
Doesh't want to be caught in coalition with partner.

I consider this very bad play. But i believe, mafia don't want to be SO blatant. Either way, stop please.

So I don't see any merit in hurting them at the moment. I think this is more interesting, and hopefully will produce better results than the last time I ran an experiment with Enchant involved.

Thankfully i don't remember that.


Either way, we have two ways how to play it and i am thinking now which is best.
1. Most obvious, try to get all townies in coalition. Already explained. I am a bit sceptical about chances to get 0 mafias on Coalition. Unless we are scumreading gods. I am not.
2. Try to get all potential mafia members in coalition. Sounds counterreversal, but if we get both mafia on coalition, this would be easy game, as we need just simple elim everyone from coalition for win. I am not sure about row chances to get 2 mafias on coalition, but if it's higher than getting 0 mafias, probably we should go for that.

I believe this post is meta scummy for Enchant but I'll need more data.

I'm tempted to townread cyrus for now. The willingness to work with Pavowski and to form his Coalition feel genuine at least. I also have a weak tonal Townread on Pavowski.

HEAL: cyrus
HEAL: Pavowski

Yes, I know they're currently doing the "build the Coalition without us in it" exercise.

If I had to come up with a Scumread, I think Farren's the closest to it? He gives me a vibe of an analytical player, who right now feels as if he's forcing himself to post and keep up the analytical appearance? But the game isn't exactly full of content, to be fair. Everyone else feels null so far.

2. Try to get all potential mafia members in coalition. Sounds counterreversal, but if we get both mafia on coalition, this would be easy game, as we need just simple elim everyone from coalition for win. I am not sure about row chances to get 2 mafias on coalition, but if it's higher than getting 0 mafias, probably we should go for that.

You do understand that we won't know whether it's 1 or 2 Scum in the Coalition if it fails, right?

Oh hi Kilga!

[Hakai]

Hakai, did i play with you early?
Can't remember that.

I've played with you a lot.

you don't trust me? :crying:

Give me a reason hurt your self.

This is

far

out of cyrus's scumrange.

@nathann unvote your self to show me I can work with you

I don't maybe see the point, not like I can single-handedly push a Coalition with myself in it through, but sure.

HURT: Nathann

Why did you decide to trust me right after my last post? You can answer this later if you want to hear Pavowski's answer first, but I am curious.

And why do you find that someone hurting themselves is Town!indicative? Or rather, why do you keep asking that people do so?

VOTE: Nathann

Just disagree with this. Scum can absolutely hurt themselves. Scum can even be named to the coalition without voting themselves onto it.

Self-hurting is not a townlock on anybody. And btw saying "self-hurt so I know I can work with you" is giving scum a roadmap to how to play you.

And I'm not sure about Nathann yet.

This post feels genuine.

---

Hard town:

Strong town:

cyrus

Town:

Somewhat town:

Pavlov

Lean town:

yessiree

Null town:

STD (I will be able to read him later, for now it's just vibes)

Null:

Kyo

Null scum:

Farren

Lean scum:

Enchant

Somewhat scum:

Nathann

Scum:

Strong scum:

Hard scum:

[Hakai]

I voted you because your hurting of yourself seemed like it deliberately grabbed attention.

cyrus is out of his scumrange, Pavowski's posts feel genuine, yessiree's weirdposting usually comes from town, STD is vibes but I know his meta, Kyo hasn't provided enough content, Farren is also vibes, Enchant for his posts in this game reminding me of his posts when he was scum, my read on you is for your scummy post and also vibes.

I do find that I tend to scumread analytical players, however.

[Hakai]

cyrus is out of his scumrange

What is cyrus's scumrange?

He just is tbh

Oh my god am I real being town read with in 5 pages I think I'm going die from shock. @hakai how do you know my scum range ? How do you know my town range? How can you be so sure I am town. I could just be scum . Willing to work with town to look like I'm town. That said of is my 1st town read.

I've played with you a lot.

@Save The Dragons, any other takes?

nope

pav and cyrus are town

and i'm town

so that's 3 from me in my core

Knowing STD's meta these few recent posts are somewhat town indicative.

[Hakai]

HEAL: cyrus
HEAL: Pavowski
HEAL: Hakai
HEAL: STD

[Hakai]

briefly skimmed, I think for now I'm okay with this

HEAL: yessiree, STD, pavowski, cyrus, farren

can elaborate if needed

Why Farren?

I just have this naggin thought if we put save the dragon in the 5 it will fail

STD is playing strongly towards his town meta.

buddy lemme offer you a deal

we will stop being lazy if you can put some effort in forming coherent thoughts before posting

cyrus just has a cursed autocorrect.

I'm aiming for the win on day one

PFDPFPSDFPDPSF
AHAHAHHAHA

Sorry not wasting my mental sanity on you. Just take HEAL: cyrus62.

Spoiler:

It's not because of exact this statement but i veryvery doubt it comes from mafia with these actions and statements.

surely you have other townreads besides cyrus and yourself by now

I hate this post and I don't know why.

Hesitant to add either of cyrus or pavowski because of their popularity so far. Heals seem to be given to them easily, probably because they've talked a lot is the feeling I've gotten. Hakai, what are you feeling from Cyrus that feels out of his scumrange?

The way he's attempting to strongarm people out of the coalition just isn't something scum him does.

[Hakai]

*slides in wearing socks*

Vote Count 1.03

Save The Dragons (1):

cyrus62

yessiree (1):

Farren

Nathan (1):

Hakai

Not Voting (6):

Enchant, ssbm_Kyouko, Save The Dragons, Nathann, yessiree, Pavowski

Coalition Count 1.03

Hakai (5):

Enchant, cyrus62, Pavowski, Hakai, Save The Dragons

Pavowski (3):

Enchant, yessiree, Save The Dragons

cyrus62 (5):

yessiree, Pavowski, Farren, Nathann, Hakai

Enchant (1):

Enchant

ssbm_Kyouko (1):

ssbm_Kyouko

Save The Dragons (3):

Save The Dragons, Pavowski, cyrus62

Nathann (2):

cyrus62, Pavowski

Farren (5):

Farren, Pavowski, cyrus62, Nathann, Hakai

yessiree (0):

Mod Notes: Kyouko on V/LA

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to eliminate.

Deadline: (expired on 2021-10-08 10:24:33)

@mod I never healed Farren

[Hakai]

Won't heal ebbs only person to ask to be in the five like 3 post why should we trust your town.

Because when I'm town it is obvious so I'm a good candidate for the coalition regardless of my.alignment. easy to catch if scum, easy to clear if town.

And if you're scum then the coalition fails.

something about ssbm's posts bother me

Kinda sorta feel the same, but they're only a couple posts deep.

The good thing about this is round 1 isn't necessarily about finding scum, it's about finding town.

Ssbm doesn't feel town yet.

Implying I will feel town later?

VOTE: kyo
This is literally shading someone over their choice of words.

Also I'm pondering hakai's comment on Cyrus scumrange. Going to check back to owner's market blitz. It had a similar town-finding mechanic where players elected a market owner as well as voted for an elim on D1.

Slightly +town for this observation.

If someone does not vote themselves into the coalition in this game it is against the town wincon and serves the scum wincon.

Consider the numbers - there are 9 of us, it is 7-2. Vote yourself into the coalition. There are 3 scenarios:

0 scum: Town wins. Yay!
1-2 scum: from each town player's POV, there is at least 1 scum inside a pool of 4 where town has 3 muslims available. If there is only 1 scum, you get 3 shots to hit scum where eliminating randomly you have a 75% chance of hitting scum in those 3 eliminations (probability is 1 minus the chance of hitting town 3 times in a row, so 1 - (3/4 * 2/3 * 1/2), cancel out the fractions you get 1 - 1/4, or 3/4, or 75%.

And that's the worst case. There's a chance there are 2 scum in the coalition which makes it a 100% chance to hit 1 scum in the first 3 eliminations from a town POV.

Players avoiding the coalition are avoiding the thunderdome and are playing to the scum wincon, which is to send a sacrificial goat to the coalition and have a deepwolf outside to close the game.

While this is a valid mech observation it also relies on you being town.

@mod I never healed Farren

That's showing me healing you, not you healing me.

Oops.

HURT: Hakai
HEAL: ssbm_Kyouko

Why?

Yet

Alright idk if scum jokes about this immediately after I call it out. I think Pav was scum in Dead Silence but that was a lolgame and I learned nothing. Leaning town here possibly.

This observation seems more likely to come from town.
VOTE: Nathann/v]

seems pretty NAI especially if someone is aware of their meta

could also just be a complete lie

Breaking one's meta - even when aware of it - is easier said than done. Especially as scum. It's not impossible, but it is challenging. Especially over the long haul.

The complete lie is certainly possible - although if it is a lie, it's one that could be disproven with a solid meta-dive. Would be pretty risky at this point - it's early enough in the game that there's plenty of time to metadive her and disprove it, if it's false.

It's not a lie, I've played many games with her. The only problem is that scum Kyo doesn't really get scumread unless you know her meta.
Thinking about it, I actually have a lot of experience with everyone in this playerlist except yessiree and Farren.

[Hakai]

Typo.
VOTE: nathann
pedit: VOTE: kyo
I can also do this. I scumread Nathann slightly more but this wagon has more traction.

[Hakai]

Earlier he made a post that seemed like it was meant to deliberately call attention to the fact he was hurting himself in an attempt to gain townreads.

[Hakai]

That should make my 5, for the moment:
Cyrus
Hakai
STD
Yessirree
and myself

talk to me about yessiree and hakai

Sure thing, man.

Vibes on yessirree, but that's my weakest of the 5 I think.

Hakai is townreading Cyrus way harder than I think he's earned, which is either very genuine or big scum equity. I don't think there's actually scum equity there, though, so...

I know how cyrus plays.

Earlier he made a post that seemed like it was meant to deliberately call attention to the fact he was hurting himself in an attempt to gain townreads.

The only two posts I see that you could be referring to are 76 (the one with the self-hurt) and 129 (answering why when someone asked). Neither of those look to me like they're deliberately trying to call attention to themselves. The former - "because cyrus asked me to" - I could see as a possible attempt to gain townreads, although given the follow-up questions he asked, I don't think that was his motive.

It was post 76 - I voted him for it earlier. That's fair, I guess.

Earlier he made a post that seemed like it was meant to deliberately call attention to the fact he was hurting himself in an attempt to gain townreads.

And you still haven't replied to me about how the fact that cyrus asked me to hurt myself played the part, and how it differs from Pavowski doing the exact same thing a few posts earlier.

Kind of the vibe I got from that post, plus the fact that it was directly after Pav did it.

I'm aiming for the win on day one

PFDPFPSDFPDPSF
AHAHAHHAHA

Sorry not wasting my mental sanity on you. Just take HEAL: cyrus62.

Spoiler:

It's not because of exact this statement but i veryvery doubt it comes from mafia with these actions and statements.

surely you have other townreads besides cyrus and yourself by now

ok

VOTE: enchant

I forgot about these posts, this sequence gave me a bad vibe about yessiree. I can't quite place it, feels a bit... forced? Like either he's attacking the loltownie for doing funny things and trying to keep busy, or he's attempting some clunky distancing. Either way, feels off for some reason.

Same :/

---

My reads are roughly the same.

[Hakai]

Hakai, is there a point to playing as an alt when you're gonna immediately stomp around in the game throwing out mostly meta reads?

This is just an alt to change my playstyle.

Haki is most likely t3. Nom would have let it be known who they are. Then again I stated long before I only buy 2 maybe 3 in my 5 as true town.

Maybe I'm just Dwlee's 'metagood' alt

[Hakai]

Hakai do you scumread me?

No.

Because we not winning D1.

Town has won plenty of times day 1 in the past.

Nathann can you hurt me and add hanki to your 5.

HURT: All

I stopping caring from this moment.

You opened eyes to me, that i am wrong. TOWN CAN AND WILL WIN D1!

Yes! Especially with me and you out of Coalition, Town will quess 5 other townies! From 7 people, which contain 5 townies exactly! Yes. You quess them ideally. I believe in your godlike scumreading.


Either way. I ignoring Cyrus for whole game. Go kill me, it's better that explaining something to him.

VOTE: Enchant
This feels like scum who is slowly being boxed into a PoE and knows they will lose day 1.

HURT: STD

Why?

---

Also, where are the townreads on Farren coming from?

[Hakai]

Hakai if you scumread me, why i am still in your coalition?

HURT: Enchant
I didn't notice, it was RVS.

Re my Farren read:

Rereading the ISO up until the 300's, I think this read was more of a "other people look worse" rather than "they look good". And I'm partly wondering if I'm getting pocketed due to him being the only person to Townread me while I was gone. However, I can point out some posts that I did like.

162 - while "putting people who are putting themselves out there" is a potentially lazy take, I feel like it's pro-Town. The idea itself that more discussion = easier sorting if the Coalition fails is Townie, but not that difficult to fake. However, I feel like using votes as such early is promoting a healthier gamestate, in a sense? Rather, I feel that Townies who are being put in Coalitions are more likely to effort (I certainly felt it was a bit easier for me to get back into the game when I saw at least someone wasn't grilling me) and increases the odds that the Townies will end up in the final Coalition? This made a bit more sense in my head.

207/237 - While I disagree with the read on Kyouko, I find this kind of read/reasoning to be Townie. I don't see the obvious Scum!motivation for defending a generally Scumread player, and the reasoning feels pure? Like something Town would come up with, while Scum probably wouldn't bother.

249 - I know, I know this is defending me, but I liked the attempt at assessing my motives. And again, assuming Farren/Kyouko isn't a thing (and I'm guessing it isn't), Scum!Farren would be defending universally Scumread Town slots for what gain?

Okay, so typing this all out, I feel like my Farren Townread is more of a gut / in the moment read than one based on analysis. I

guess

I could see Scum!Motivation in defending Town slots likely to be outside the Coalition if Farren is planning to be inside the Coalition and his partner outside and he's angling to Scumread his fellow Coalition members... But eh. Still above the null line for me.

Though this did make me wonder - @Farren, what's your current read on Hakai, and what did you like about him initially when you put him into the Coalition? (Assuming it was more than the fact he was active.)

I vaguely like this post.

I think enchant may have been right. Wining day one was a fools gambit.

No.

Also not in mood arguing. If everyone disagree with my idea, not gonna complain anymore.

This feels like pointless AtE.

[Hakai]

If Pavowski and Cyrus can agree on a 5 that does not include Nathann I'll sheep it

I've been noodling on this all day, and I just don't think scum goes so hard against a single slot, especially one that's, if not being scum read, has had a hard time getting traction in the coalition.

I'm not saying Kyo is right, I just don't see why scum would tunnel like that here.

Isn't this an older Scum tactic? Tunnel a single Town slot to appear busy, save yourself from actually having to do fake analysis of other people and whatnot. If she is Scum here, I'd guess that means her partner is already on their way to be in the Coalition, and she's setting up a later Day plan to get me yeeted after we find her partner in the Coalition... But that's too far into speculation.

Pavowski, do you need anything from me to help you read me better? Like, I'm reading your hesitancy, and I really don't get it.

I haven't seen that tactic used ever.

[Hakai]

I haven't seen that tactic used ever.

Okay. Do you have anything useful to add to the discussion?

Gut instinct on reading that post was that the repetition comes from.scum that is forcing it.

Or,

or

, the repetition came because I wanted to make myself clear and because there were two different theoretical disagreements at play - Fareen disagreeing on theory with Save the Dragons, and me disagreeing on theory with Farren.

I'm going to hold on to this one like a dog with a bone for the time being.

Should I read this as you not being interested in listening to literally anything that anyone else is saying about me and being willing to die on this hill?

Opinion on anything else you've said? I've been reading it, responding where I have questions/comments to share.

This ties in to the above. I am highly skeptical of a good faith Town player making a read on me (or on anyone, really) based on tone from one (1) post and then not using literally anything else that that player has said in order to read them. The point isn't that I want you to respond to a certain point of mine, the point is that by not taking into account literally anything else I'm doing (or what others are saying about me), your read on me feels willfully ignorant.

Not really.

[Hakai]

Hey working right now will read later.

Can someone say who they absolutely want in the coalition please? Only one name allowed no naming yourself.

STD

[Hakai]

who i dont want in is ssbm and yessir no replace will convice me a man convice agesnt his will . will death tunnel.

Interesting. I am curious as to why.
This also doesn’t answer who you do want in your coalition.

Would you accept any coalition that did not have me and Kyo?

This is an odd way of dodging my question. There’s a reason I am asking it like this.

I don't like this post.

I am kinda thinking Cyrus might be scum here.

I don’t see a reason for objection here unless I am missing something?

Stuff I said earlier.

HURT: ssbm_Kyouku
HEAL: Mathblade

I understand where people are coming from with the MathBlade reads but I hold him to a higher standard when reading him because he is very good at playing scum.

[Hakai]

I do

not

want Nathann in my coalition.
HEAL: Farren, Pavowski, ssbm_Kyouko, MathBlade, Enchant

[Hakai]

Enchant and Math both play strong scumgames but I have little reason to scumread either of them.