Final Fantasy XIV - A Realm Reborn Mafia (Game Over)

[tictac]

i am here
VOTE: Mandelbrot
self-similarity is sus

[tictac]

pagetop

[tictac]

Every day players may join the raid against the Primals. If joined by more than 8 players, only the first 8 players will join.

[tictac]

what does self-similarity mean?

math joke

[tictac]

speculation about possible scum-motivation/demotivation to get on a raid gonna be more useful

after

we see who joins

[tictac]

ninjad

[tictac]

I'm a meta guy too

do ya have meta on Elsa? just looking for y/n here
pedit: o u answered by ninja

[tictac]

i don't tr mastina ftr

[tictac]

rce feels more connected/less abstracted than what i remember from scum him, but i may be tring time/exp there.
still would not be my first choice.

[tictac]

(I don’t actually agree with Elsa FYI but that seems a little bit braver than I’d expect from scum)

i was misreading this as u saying u tr elsa for bravery, whinch would have been backwards.

[tictac]

i don't tr mastina ftr

Why?
~C

the motivation 4 the claim is fucked 4 both align, theres that + effort as far as i can see as far as reasons 4 tr go

[tictac]

VOTE: Momrangal
i guess

[tictac]

But if she's scum she's actually the role she's claiming.

i mean shes basically claiming the powerset that scum are mod confirmed to have

[tictac]

(I don’t actually agree with Elsa FYI but that seems a little bit braver than I’d expect from scum)

i was misreading this as u saying u tr elsa for bravery, whinch would have been backwards.

Um. I'm pretty sure your "misread" was actually what I meant. Why did it feel backwards to you?

Qrow

scum elsa is very much not timid at all.
if anything i'd expect a lot more of the razzle-dazzle from scum-him
is that not ur exp with him then?

[tictac]

unless the scumteam(s) were of a weird middleground size like 4-per, it should be immediately evident whether a game is multiball or not based on the number of scumbuddies you have when you're scum. I think Elsa was genuinely wondering if the game is multiball so if Elsa is scum her team likely has to have 4 people on it total

tbh I think multiball-spec is just what Elsa does in all his games as a matter of course, just because it makes people think this.

[tictac]

ftr multiple sum factions being in a raid and disagreeing on success/fail would lead to undefined behaviour.
so glaring design flaw in the ruleset or this is in fact single ball.

[tictac]

vote is cuz disagreed w pretty much entire short iso, and 419 struck me as scummy-complaint to have.

second:

If at least one member of the hostile factions are in the raid group, the said member will decide whether the raid succeeds or fail.

pedit @qrow

[tictac]

how was 419 a scummy complaint, it does get pretty obnoxious when someone is lording information over you that you can't counter them on effectively because you don't know who they are
I had someone fake a meta SR on me a few times, in more recent games I've taken it alright but the first time it happened I viewed it as tantamount to a fake guilty claim

4 town, it's good news if someone isn't actually new, cause then they are more likely to read u correctly.
4 scum, it's the opposite.

[tictac]

I was only offsite for > 48 hrs and I didn’t even know that the game had begun.

sorry to bring yer rl into things, but there's an implication here about u not having access to a maf pt 4 pre-game planning that should not be ignored. otherwise game having started probs not a surprise.

[tictac]

I specifically said "first step" in quotation marks to indicate I wasn't trying to draw an exact parallel, but making a point that in any other game the elim is the first major decision of the game, but here it's raid entry

okay, that's not even where ur quotation marks are..
it's so easily checked, i dont even think u intentionally being deceptive, but I also don't think there was a pause for an introspection and a memory between the accusation and the response. it's like u on some weird autopilot.
the earlier thing was me thinking Raven not being aware of gamestart may be a towntell, and i do still think that, but oh man

[tictac]

okay, but Nancy u can trust, so talk things over w her and see which things still make sense.

[tictac]

It's in my nature to be a contrarian.

Echo chambers beget confbias beget mislims.

Challenge every assumption. Confirm every theory.

well, yeah.
ur contrarian opinion is kinda well in line w general thread sentiment tho.

[tictac]

In my opinion, you being concerned about all the townreads on you makes you townier.

why take ur part of this dance?
u both know all the steps by heart.

[tictac]

VOTE: Romance
literally nobody townreads this person

i tr that person, tho i haven't done a re-eval for a while.
also the disengage seems in line with how she was in sign-up thread.

@qrow: sure

[tictac]

I think cakes & wheme catchups both been pretty good, while mom didn't really.
I'd be okay with AA but it's not what I prefer.

[tictac]

what even happens if we yeet someone who is on the raid?

[tictac]

Fuck! I just ISO’d her and caught her ellitelling.

so i kinda like the agression from you both, and the bit with the heads disagreeing felt real.
this is not how doing an ISO works tho.

so can we yeet mom now?

[tictac]

the arc on bell read and not knowing what to do with TT maybe changing meta

[tictac]

There's not much pushback against TC or Mom votes.

It's possible that's because they're being bussed or their team is avoiding associatives in case of flip.

Idk.

I'll be reading the game closer starting on Friday.

- House

Yeah, that’s definitely concerning.

~R

there's kinda a lot of what could be cw attempts for a wagon that's existed for a rl-day. (mom)
dwle(mandelb,AA), AA(dwle,QR,mastina), wheme(thought there was someone trying this, but now i cant find it), QR(Cakes), Cakes(QR)
and defend-via-nullread from Elsa (twice)

[tictac]

I see things going well here.
Good luck with your op Martina!

[tictac]

Autospell grr

[tictac]

VOTE: raid
Phone posting until Tuesday.
Also
VOTE: toog

[tictac]

I'm getting impatient. ):

There's a reason I said give three names.

That would out the actual name to scumteam if the other ² are town

[tictac]

I guess you are a cup half full type of guy

I don't even care about flavor claims in a cc scenario, tbh.

When there's a cc, I vote the original claim because it's suicide for scum to cc town (esp this early)

If that player flips town, bye bye scum cc.

1:1 trade is town-sided.

- House

Not if the factions are town-faction and troll-faction.
People taking tomorrowfoo seriously either silly or malicious.

VOTE: cakes

[tictac]

So many fucking pages
I haven't read shit but I'll be here in a few hours!

Lol. Suuure.

[tictac]

I like this raid comp. Except else, but nothing to be done about that.

[tictac]

lol. I didn't even double-vote.
kinda minimalist reads for u thinking u in twilight, no?

[tictac]

tictac EJ and toogeloo all need to exit the raid queue for this to pass

to be clear: I don't think it's an improvement so I don't intend to out.

[tictac]

what would be an improvement for you

-Qrow

if elsa gives way to bears I'll give way to H12.

[tictac]

i suppose so, i was thinking in terms of current comp.
I don't really trust you with it, if that is what you are asking.
pedit: @ Qrow

[tictac]

I mean it obviously isn’t but it irks me anytime I get shaded with no explanation given.

I'm not really interested in casing you when I'm not trying to get you yeeted.
I don't need a reason for why I 'deserve' a spot on the raid. I have one, and it's mine unless I choose to give it up.
you are not scummier than Elsa(*), that's why I tried to negotiate for a not!elsa raid, but I

can

just go: "I'm not moving, lol", if it looks like that approach works better.

(*)the intensity of this reaction is

weird

for someone who says they don't really care if they are on the raid or not tho.

[tictac]

@mastina I don't it hard to believe that you can read 2644 and not pick up any useful information.

This push is sus as hell.

- House

that post what you meant to reference?

VOTE: Elsa

[tictac]

hokay raven, here's the case on you.

day 1:
gamma: is familiar of elsas meta yet his day1 posting about elsa gives easy townpoints for stuff that is fully NAI for elsa (bravery, multiball spec). partner-read or attempt to pocket, currently leanin former.
raven: lied about doing an ISO on AA (described process is not how the site works)
day2:
gamma: was ok
raven: huge reaction to me saying I don't trust them doesn't match them insisting they didn't care if they were on the raid or not. said they wanted contributing slots on the raid, but was fully OK with Tomorrow being included, so I'm calling bull. admittedly I dunno what is the scum motivation to be on the raid given, that buddy already on it.
all of her focus on my read on her("what is tictacs threat-level?") and others reads on me("is he mislynchable?"), none of her focus on whether or not I was town ("

should

i be pushing tictac"), given that 2 slots were claiming info-that-makes-me-town, so its super not rocket-science that I in fact am.

[tictac]

VOTE: raid

[tictac]

People taking tomorrowfoo seriously either silly or malicious.

stand by this, and that track kinda wasted.
i don't mind him claiming tho.

[tictac]

Like seriously what kinda information do you think you can extract that would "clear tictac and TC" with this.

I have a theory for how t3 misinterpreted his role here

I had one, but it just falsified.
his flavor is from a different tripod than mine.

[tictac]

TC could qualify as a doc-like to a very loose extent if they are Kan-E-Senna. She is the leader of Gridania, and functionally a White Mage.
Tic Tac and H1/H2 could possibly be Rauhbahn (or Nanamo) and Merlwyb, the Eorzean Alliance leaders of Ul'Dah and Limsa Lominsa respectively.

^i'm in this set

[tictac]

TC could qualify as a doc-like to a very loose extent if they are Kan-E-Senna. She is the leader of Gridania, and functionally a White Mage.
Tic Tac and H1/H2 could possibly be Rauhbahn (or Nanamo) and Merlwyb, the Eorzean Alliance leaders of Ul'Dah and Limsa Lominsa respectively.

^i'm in this set

R, N, or M? Were you informed of a flavor being town?

oh fine, im kan-e-senna flavor, and no.
I thought tom was informed of me and trying to roleswap.
dunno what h12 was on since apparently not connected to the triad.

[tictac]

Tictac get off the raid.

UNVOTE: Raid

I've flipped on Sakura

#thingsthatdontmattertoday

Lets yeet Elsa

[tictac]

[tictac]

@gamma ye, we could do the quote-wall tango, but seems kinda futile when I don't think either of us wants to yeet the other today.
I just cased top of my head cause I was annoyed by Nancy insisting to be trusted by default when I don't even think you guys are >rand town.

[tictac]

oml cheeks, dwlee, bell are all clearly town to me.
i might actually wall at qr later

[tictac]

oml cheeks, dwlee, bell are all clearly town to me.
i might actually wall at qr later

Why

cheeks RCE meta.
you solve stuff, esp H12 last eod.
bell from all of them meta reads day1

[tictac]

You told us we we weren’t an improvement over Elsa and raid failed. - which you were on and you’re my #1 pick for at least one scum on that raid. That makes me think you either wanted Elsa to be on the raid as a fall guy or if he is actually suicidal scum here, are bussing him. I lean the former or you wouldn’t have tried to prevent us from swiching with him.

lo, what exactly makes u think scum-elsa was gonna out from the raid?
+ i'm pretty sure u partners by now from how u keep 'scumreading' him yet sliding off the actual vote.

[tictac]

You told us we we weren’t an improvement over Elsa and raid failed. - which you were on and you’re my #1 pick for at least one scum on that raid. That makes me think you either wanted Elsa to be on the raid as a fall guy or if he is actually suicidal scum here, are bussing him. I lean the former or you wouldn’t have tried to prevent us from swiching with him.

lo, what exactly makes u think scum-elsa was gonna out from the raid?

+ i'm pretty sure u partners by now from how u keep 'scumreading' him yet sliding off the actual vote.

We’re the ones who tried to switch with him and you, TC and Arc prevented it. Like I said, if you really believed Elsa is scum, you wouldn’t have tried to prevent us from switching with him.

So, your reasoning makes absolutely no sense here.

~R

u fully neglected to adress the question in any way.

[tictac]

notice the word 'if' there.

[tictac]

3784wut

[tictac]

u asked what would be an improvement, and bears came to mind.

[tictac]

3874
can u just quote the post. i dunno what u talking about

[tictac]

3874o u mean [post]2838[/quote]
i made that cause i dunno if elsa is scum or not, i have suspicion, that is all

[tictac]

there was like a brief part of day1 when I had a tr on u.
if u didn't notice it going away u weren't paying attention.

[tictac]

did i ask u to tr me? no i did not.
coflicted reads are not townreads.

[tictac]

You told us we we weren’t an improvement over Elsa and raid failed. - which you were on and you’re my #1 pick for at least one scum on that raid. That makes me think you either wanted Elsa to be on the raid as a fall guy or if he is actually suicidal scum here, are bussing him. I lean the former or you wouldn’t have tried to prevent us from swiching with him.

lo, what exactly makes u think scum-elsa was gonna out from the raid?

+ i'm pretty sure u partners by now from how u keep 'scumreading' him yet sliding off the actual vote.

We’re the ones who tried to switch with him and you, TC and Arc prevented it. Like I said, if you really believed Elsa is scum, you wouldn’t have tried to prevent us from switching with him.

So, your reasoning makes absolutely no sense here.

~R

u fully neglected to adress the question in any way.

speaking of intentionally obtuse.
there's still no answer to this one.

[tictac]

Even if you did think we were suspicious, there are varied levels of suspicion. Were we that suspect to you that even though you thought Elsa was problematic from word one we weren’t an improvement?
And wrt our voting your little “off and on Elsa” argument is laughable given that WE ARE A HYDRA. I think Elsa is the simplest vote this day phase, but Nancy disapproves of your trajectory on us. At this point a combination of general game frustration and not wanting to feud with my partner is resulting in me letting her command the vote.

-Qrow

seems convenient.

[tictac]

did i ask u to tr me? no i did not.
coflicted reads are not townreads.

It’s frequently a scumtell. I caught sheep doing that in Forest Fire but what bothers me even more is why you continue to refuse to answer a single one of my questions.

Like 3874.

~R

i did answer that.
pedit: okay i'll expand then.
given that i don't actually know if elsa is scum, he might be persuaded to trade for a mutually better-valued wagon, and i figured bears and H12 were universal trs.

[tictac]

why did you prefer Elsa to us

i've never said that.
i didn't prefer the proposed plan to the current one.

[tictac]

I mean it obviously isn’t but it irks me anytime I get shaded with no explanation given.

I'm not really interested in casing you when I'm not trying to get you yeeted.
I don't need a reason for why I 'deserve' a spot on the raid. I have one, and it's mine unless I choose to give it up.
you are not scummier than Elsa(*), that's why I tried to negotiate for a not!elsa raid, but I

can

just go: "I'm not moving, lol", if it looks like that approach works better.

(*)the intensity of this reaction is

weird

for someone who says they don't really care if they are on the raid or not tho.

And this post.

If you really think that

, then your entire trajectory on our slot makes no sense. If we were buddies with whichever slot(s) caused the raid to fail then why would we have even been so hard trying to get on it. If we weren’t actually doing that, then what you’re saying wouldn’t be so whack.

~R

what does "that" refer to here?

[tictac]

tictac, if you're angling for your interaction with Qrow to be written off as tvt, I ain't gonna do it.

TvT spats look nothing like this.

- House

okidou.
I'll get back to this tomorrow when i'm conftown.

[tictac]

i was just noting that something was weird there. I didn't have further thoughts about it at that point of time.

[tictac]

You need to actually read the thread if you think that’s still happening.

I've read it, and there have been theories.
doesn't change what H12 said.
if it doesn't happen, I'll deal with that too.

[tictac]

i was just noting that something was weird there. I didn't have further thoughts about it at that point of time.

And you’re also ignoring the fact that we’re in a hydra. Me and Gamma don’t see eye to eye on everything.

~R

ok.
from your pow then, which one was it that didn't care if u were on the raid or not?
also which one had the actives on the raid is good opinion?

[tictac]

I’m assuming Gamma and I’m pissed we didn’t get onto to this one sooner because scum has a very easy shot at us tonight unless Sakura heals us. Mandel already has bp.

I don’t understand the second part of your question

no I meant the day2 raid. which one didn't care about that?
which one wanted only contributing slots on the raid?

[tictac]

Tictac where's scum in here?

i mean if u want the thing on sakura, i can do, but even I'm not really feeling it anymore.
otherwise it just has to be Elsa I think.
'poe' is boring as a case, but it is what it is.
pedit: nice

[tictac]

VOTE: QR
the push on me yesterday was whack.
I'm scummy for expressing a conflicted read on them day1, also i hard tr'd them day1 and conveniently flipped on that day2 to accomplish ???
I blocked them from trading places with Elsa yet the mechanism by which I accomplished that feat is super unclear.
(also I'm scummy for ignoring romances quilty when romance asked us to ignore it)
it all hashes out to throwing spagetti at a wall and seeing what sticks.
eg starting from a need to scumread me and looking for reasons to.
(same thing with AA eod1. I now think gamma slipped their motives on 1411)

Here's a theory about what happened day2:
Elsa is not a fall-guy-scum. Elsa is a carry-scum. Him being caught in poe was very bad for the scumteam, but he could not out because then there's nooo scumz in the raid and romance gets a strongwilled result.
Enter bears-plan, and suddenly theres a way to get someone besides Elsa to be the fall-guy. maybe someone better positioned so they get some miseets out of it too. So that's why Raven was so hyped to get raiding.
they actually did intend to use the plan to switch places w elsa, and that is why that is the framing they keep using.
only things got cut short by AA and TC, soo i'm thinking those slots are associative probtown.

also
VOTE: Raid

[tictac]

Because the VC said he did. Ask GiF. I’m not making that up. He was the hammer despite never actually self-voting.

can confirm.

I don't actually remember u defending Elsa, just tryng to drive a couterwagon into town, while scumreading him. not really the same thing.

@TC if u want cred 4 QR u gotta keep voting there

[tictac]

Would be interested in what do you think of the theory that scum was a bit slow to join day 2 raid, but at the time they didnt know who the guilty was in, so since it was on cakez, EJ would not be able to leave, and Mystic Bears proposed raid adjustment was to help EJ get out of the raid while also failing it.

i mean, could be. I remember having a TR there, but I don't actually remember why.
don't really think straigh-up defending is scummy tho. lots of folk gonna TR elsa the first go around.

[tictac]

like, sure, if this was a newbgame, let's look for bussers in the late voters.
this is very much not a newbgame tho, so imma assign a nonzero chance to scumz not wanting to be in the places they know we gonna look for them in.
it's fully plausible that they decided to not bus, especially as the first slot to bring up bussing was QR.

not like thrilled at no info from mastina, but it's true that the elsa-lynch would very likely not have gone thru without her.
3p hunting is dumb.

UNVOTE: Raid[/v]

[tictac]

damn
UNVOTE: Raid

[tictac]

skimmed today
bears v mandel maybe svs?
bears supes easily convinced on "mastina 3p" thing, did like the wheme read tho.

need to brain the mastina thing.
not gonna fight 4 AA (

intent to hammer that when it's e-1

), maybe will on wheme? dunno.

[tictac]

need to brain the mastina thing.

yea. QR and StD get dropped, just because.
still don't think her coroner claim comes from scum, but also don't think this post counts as 'logic' in any real sense.

[tictac]

Using that logic Mastina has to be todays lim then.

this

[tictac]

Ok.
VOTE: AA9

L-1

[tictac]

so masina went kinda full-hog on the dishonest rhretoric yesterday, but hey, confirmable role so let her confirm it.
the pool of

possible

very likely rbs is [StD,

QR

, wheme]
take a wild guess on who I think it is.

hint:
VOTE: QR

not touching the raid today.
i think massclaim-day should be today or tomorrow. today would be my pref.

cheeks-hate is nka or?
their flavorclaim seemed a risk for no benefit if not actually vt (will confirm I am also). can't be cakes result on me n1 since they used that 4 pts apparently.

[tictac]

And if we don't continue to hunt for the roleblocker, then eliminating AA9 wrongly was all for naught. The entire point of that elimination was roleblocker-hunting within the limited POE. Switching to strongman hunting is the worst thing we could do.

this is sunk cost fallacy.
the 50% thing was nonsense yesterday, and it's nonsense today.
wanna sell me on your QR townread?
I don't mean 'why do u think that' i mean give me a reason to.

[tictac]

ok. someone needs to out from the raid or we need to yeet someone from the raid.
we can't just leave mastinas claim untested when we have the opportunity to do so.
wtf people?

[tictac]

What are we testing?

Ability to pass a raid that isn't full
VOTE: Mystic Bears

[tictac]

I dont think there's any need to test mastina's ability right now, mastina's clearly not scum.

elsa and mastina both gonna bus well if they gonna do it at all.
not saying I didn't give her a good amount of points for that push but since then shes spent 2 days chasin mislims with a poe made of poo.
u have wayy more faith on elsa-spew being informative than i do, and it's possible that's why u alive instead of romance.

[tictac]

I’ll leave raid if needed.

please do.

[tictac]

And why is the PoE made of poo?

shes not even willing to give a proper townread on std and u know how i feel about QR. she totally failed to even try to change my mind on QR.
a townblock is supposed to have townreads in it.

[tictac]

Yeah, rereading the Dragon and Wheme I much rather prefer Wheme. Fits the bored and apathetic scum archetype much better.

that's just wheme being wheme. he is a townread of mine, not like a high read, but still. he has more posts than I do and inactivity not even scummy as u well know.
can we yeet bears instead? i agree that there's nothing really they could claim that's gonna match all the crap they hinted at.

[tictac]

Yeah, rereading the Dragon and Wheme I much rather prefer Wheme. Fits the bored and apathetic scum archetype much better.

that's just wheme being wheme. he is a townread of mine, not like a high read, but still. he has more posts than I do and inactivity not even scummy as u well know.
can we yeet bears instead? i agree that there's nothing really they could claim that's gonna match all the crap they hinted at.

You realize a hammer can’t be undone right?

~R

there hasn't been a hammer

[tictac]

Okay so now people want TC cool and theres a soft guilty i am a god at this game

VOTE: tc

On a more serious note here are my current thoughts

Mastinas posts make 0 sense.
TC is scum.
Tictac is town
I townread Toog but I have paranoia that hes scum
Mandelbrot I TR. At least the house side.
Sakura town
Romance town
Elsa probably scum

IDK whos left tbh but theres my readlist any questions for me. Also sorry toog but I dont really care for being on this raid unless Im needed because we think scum is on it.

My reads are pretty similar to most people so that’s nice

Not getting Romances or Mastinas townread on TC I thought the slot has been scum.

Elsa and cheeks are both viable votes for me

I don’t think I’ll be voting Bell it’s a good sheep read me thinks.

Kind of surprised that everyone was saying that Bell had this creature style meta that led everyone to townread him D1 and now he's suddenly into a bunch of people's PoE.

BIG TRUE

townposts by wheme

[tictac]

like zero effort to get cred from elsa yeet or push elsewhere really, he just kinda hanged out being good with things.
big mood on "i am a god" when there was than soft guilty on CT

[tictac]

give him a little bit of time to catch up at least.

[tictac]

Tictac what are your thoughts on StD?
~C

i kinda think he's a lynchbait that mastina is saving up to have as a snack later.
very null by play, but claiming PR so there's some hope of a mech solve.

[tictac]

i'm good with bears today.

massclaims first tho.

[tictac]

I'm 100% convinced that mastina is town.

is this like 100% convinced normal mafia-speak, or mech convinced where we

actually

don't need the test anymore?

[tictac]

I'm 100% convinced that mastina is town.

is this like 100% convinced normal mafia-speak, or mech convinced where we

actually

don't need the test anymore?

If this raid is a success I don't think it matters too much.
-R

i mean, the scum-mastina world is pretty much the only way this is still realistically loseable, so a low-cost test doesn't seem unreasonable to me.

[tictac]

Wheme hammered early on purpose which could point to scum on raid imo since it allowed scum to fail raid without getting caught.
~C

VOTE: realcheeks

he's claiming vt when we have too many pr claims.
also was in day2 raid w Elsa and Cakes + likely no other scumz.

[tictac]

ok, pr hinters then. i feel like that's most folk. could be wrong.

[tictac]

day1 raid aka strongman pool: ref 5501
(technically the rb can be in here but it's very unlikely)

Mandelbrot

**
Bell **
Toogeloo **
RealCheeks **
mastina
Mystic Bears

(sorry mastina. not striking out ur name until we see actual proof. very likely its just bears anyways.)
im sad to lessen the tr on cheeks, but i can't rightly think anyone should have tr'd me from day1 when my day1 sucked so hard. stilll a tr tho.

day1 offraid aka rb pool: ref 4979
(none of these can be the strongman, so a red flip here would conftown all the rest. unless unlimited strongman/6p team or such nonsense.)
tictac **
dwlee99 **
Tomorrow Corporation **
Save The Dragons
Qrow and Raven (Gamma Emerald + Nancy Drew 39)

** also in day2 raid - aka Elsa would not have needed to throw a fit day2 if these were scum. ref: 4084
most persuasive argument against this to date has been "not fair" by gamma.

But really, there isn't an actual valid possible reason for one head of a hydra to be supes kung-ho about raiding, while the other head is not, so it's just bears+QR

[tictac]

@mastina not mad about raid failing, tho did get super paranoid when it felt like u were avoiding the test. today is a new day.
who are all the folks who agree w you about QR? I must have missed them.

@cheeks let's not hurry the day for no reason k? i'm just glad ultima weapon wasn't a vig raid like i thougt it might be.

[tictac]

i was talking about the time before that, when the shotnumber became 1 and she became not rb-immune.
did figure out the not rb-immune thing was probs the mysterious coroner thing. did u go over that btw? makes sense?

[tictac]

look folks: if the scum have a pool of 3 vts to choose between or 4 it doesn't really matter.
mastina already confirmed that she's using a shot today so a failed raid can't happen (or mastina is scum).
it's a super cheap way to get actual confimed info on one of the best players of the game.
the-raid-should-not-be-full

[tictac]

The raid will automatically fail if it is not full, and I assume mastina's ability can't supersede that.

She has claimed that it can.

[tictac]

So is the idea here to confirm Mastina's ability by having one player less than the needed number of players to fill the raid so she can activate her ability to prove it works how she said it did?
How does that clear anyone else tho.

it clears mastina, cause passing of raids is very tied to the WoL role by toogs spec, and would not be a scum ability anyways.
clearing mastina is plenty imo.

[tictac]

The raid will automatically fail if it is not full, and I assume mastina's ability can't supersede that.

She has claimed that it can.

Not worth the risk today, if she had another shot test another day if she doesn't oh well let her get to elo and so probably wouldn't end game. With the PRs dwindling the slot is bound to be resolved at some point. And even if the test worked I'm not sure what that proves.
~C

the opportunity will be gone after today.
and i would consider it a clear if she passed.

[tictac]

yea. i don't really expect something House couln't make sense of to be that convincing to me, so i'll sit this raid out 4 the infos tyvm.
VOTE: Mystic Bears

Y-1

[tictac]

UNVOTE:

[tictac]

im brainfarting bears not on the raid

[tictac]

imma just stare at this raid until someone outs then.

[tictac]

thing about bears-lim is that the slot near-conftowns if theres a strongman shot tonight.
so from scum-pow it needed to go bad IF it is town.
having a doc, bp-raid AND a bp would be supes weird tho.

[tictac]

the coroner-thing aka mastinas alternate conftowning method?

[tictac]

It's in my nature to be a contrarian, House.
Check every theory, challenge every belief.
communication is sometimes overrated.

[tictac]

if only there was some method we could use to determine if mastina is on the level or not..
..oh wait!

[tictac]

Meh... Not really. I mean, yeah, if the player doesn't want to play through the story. I think the nagging at the back of brain is would the WoL actually be in this game? FFXIV does have a generic WoL that is used in cinematics for the title screen and launch promos, and to be fair, the WoL is the primary driving force of the story since it's, well, the player. Not either of the names I would have guessed mastina to pick, and she hasn't confirmed it either, but technically plausible since

if there is any one character in the game that would actually succeed in raiding, it would be the player

lol.

[tictac]

I can’t read apparently because I thought their entire role had to do with making raids succeed or not.

That's just one aspect of her role.

She was pretty quiet about the rest of it until last night, and claimed it publicly today.

- House

trying to find this. did u just mean when she claimed "there's other stuff" basically?

[tictac]

Considering their last post @ me, I won't be heartbroken over it.

- House

if u took it as an insult, it was not meant as one.
i was expressing preference for mech over softer communication based reads

[tictac]

imma just stare at this raid until someone outs then.

Spoiler: gif + seecrets the goverment doesn't want u to know about

youuu are feeling sleepyy, veery sleepyy now.
colose yer eye, but continue reading. good
just
like
that
youuu aree a VTee. youu should ouut fromm thee reaaidd.

here is a funny joke:
a rabbit, a priest and an englsman went raiding
then they dies and everyone laughed at them.
cause raiding is stoopid. hahahhaha.

[tictac]

pagetop

[tictac]

doo iiittt

[tictac]

mastina:
-is in the strongman pool and started the game with a reason to be on every raid that gives +1 to oneshot abilities
-the read on QR is weid af when Raven basically gave up on trying to look town like a dayphase ago.
-cool there have been scumflips, but the important ones havent flipped (rb,strong), and the search for the blocker yelded a bodyguad insted, which is like ?? how does that happen even.
not like saying "yeet mastina", but going "nah fam, we good on info on mastina" is... silly. imma go with "silly" on this one.

[tictac]

is in the strongman pool and started the game with a reason to be on every raid that gives +1 to oneshot abilities

ok circular logic. we do know that one exists tho, and is very likely 1 shot.

[tictac]

I can’t read apparently because I thought their entire role had to do with making raids succeed or not.

That's just one aspect of her role.

She was pretty quiet about the rest of it until last night, and claimed it publicly today.

- House

trying to find this. did u just mean when she claimed "there's other stuff" basically?

My bad, I thought she posted it out here too.

- House

k.
is it clearing and/or verifiable in your estimation?

[tictac]

k.
is it clearing and/or verifiable in your estimation?

o and does the use-case of trying to get h12 flip info make sense?

[tictac]

k.
is it clearing and/or verifiable in your estimation?

o and does the use-case of trying to get h12 flip info make sense?

I'll let Toog answer these.

- House

Like, I can see town motive in wanting to get H1H2's role pm, but Toog probably has a better overall take on what you're asking.

- House

yea. ok.
logical concistency of the claim is what i'm after here not motivation.

[tictac]

well...

Here's a theory about what happened day2:
Elsa is not a fall-guy-scum. Elsa is a carry-scum. Him being caught in poe was very bad for the scumteam, but he could not out because then there's nooo scumz in the raid and romance gets a strongwilled result.
Enter bears-plan, and suddenly theres a way to get someone besides Elsa to be the fall-guy. maybe someone better positioned so they get some miseets out of it too. So that's why Raven was so hyped to get raiding.
they actually did intend to use the plan to switch places w elsa, and that is why that is the framing they keep using.
only things got cut short by AA and TC, soo i'm thinking those slots are associative probtown.

Would be interested in what do you think of the theory that scum was a bit slow to join day 2 raid, but at the time they didnt know who the guilty was in, so since it was on cakez, EJ would not be able to leave, and Mystic Bears proposed raid adjustment was to help EJ get out of the raid while also failing it.

psure this is true now.

Ok actually this is easy. we just reorder the whole raid and it'll all be good
Make everyone that is town exit the raid right now. The raid people will be reordered to create a compromise
i propose a raid of
1. Me/Flea
2. Romance
3. Sakura Hana
4. Tommorow
5. Massy
6. Bell
7. Realcheeky
8. SirCakez

You.

Listed.

Cakez.



Seriously, though. While I don't have a problem with TC, some might.

- House

Cakez is confirmed scum. He's not going to just out the raid.

real mistake, or an excuse? I think she can probs count to 8.

Oh I see.
Throw nancy and gamma in then. Dwlee would be alright as well.

only way the new plan includes the blocker and the orig raid didn't is if it's QR.
(or mastina, but kinda good on mastina-town 4 now at least. do wanna see that fullclaim at some point tho)

dragon did joke-claim the one unlipped scum name on day 4 tho, and he

is

in the poe, so i'm good w that also.
not like 1/3 chances don't happen ever but occams says "looked at pm" is more likely.
also my trip thru google was more effort than i expect dragon to go 2 4 a joke.
(would mean the day2 raid was always meant to fail tho)

side-eye note:
@House can u confirm the 5 names toog listed can be naturally aquired by being familiar with the game? (wiki listed 11 names)
cause blatant info-pow if that isn't the case.

[tictac]

just in case the game doesn't end at dusk. everyone who isn't me should raid.
then it can't fail without conftowning me. or dwe u can take the out-spot if u rather.
also TC conftown from being tracked nowhere when romance was blocked.

but ye. i'm good sheeping mastina 4 a day. just wanna get the ducks in a row first.

pedit: @house well i'm expecting the answer to be "yes nothing weird there", but it's better to ask than assume.

[tictac]

dwe is technically correct there. would still be a super weird abomination of a role, so relax.
also where was this paranoid house yesterday when mastina-paranoia was actionable? a forced kil between 2 vts is not further evidence.
day action been out 4 ever.
@tc more committed to the poe than ever

[tictac]

i don't super think this game is winnable by mastina-scum anymore. kinda why I think shes town now

[tictac]

u think shes like arsonist in the tree-game? ehh.
ok theoretically possible but not likely to exist and she not gonna spontaniously generate the role just from being mastina

[tictac]

very unlikely

that rb was in day2 raid, cause then they don't have to fail it and there's no elsa yeet day3. no need for bears to propose an alternative plan also.
basically poes things down 2 [mastina, QR, StD], just from that.

[tictac]

mainly i'm waiting 4 a votecount so i know the raid is full.

[tictac]

well, do u trust my reads more or mastinas?
i kinda don't see a need to start drama as long as she doesn't try to yeet outside of the poe.
pedit: @ dw
that's tempting tho.

[tictac]

i dunno even what that means
@dw

[tictac]

i dunno even what that means
@dw

[tictac]

well the whole poe thing is based on my theory.
mastina did get wheme who i did tr.

[tictac]

titus

[tictac]

There is no point to not being on the raid, so if you are not on, jump on. 9 people left, so all 8 living players after today's Elim should be on it.

o yea. i miscounted.
i think it actually autofills at this point.

VOTE: Raid
just in case

also
VOTE: StD

thing about the claim is it's neg utility 4 both scum and town, making it supes weird.

[tictac]

VOTE: Join Raid
wasn't gonna do this until tictac actually realized trying to scrape out a "townclear" from being off-raid was never gonna work because he'd either get auto-joined or the raid wouldn't fill and he'd be lacking in the actual clear

-Qrow

u do realize that was only ever gonna work if i'm town

[tictac]

Hi, I'm off work, not sure what to make of that interaction.

STD, Qrow, Tictac,

did ya'll answer my "why aren't you scum this game" question?

i thought u were joking, so no.
role pm

[tictac]

"Why aren't I more concerned about QR-scum here?" is a question someone should ask me, so I'm doing it.
Well, tictac, as far as I can see their best path to victory goes like this:
yeet StD
NK Mandel
yeet dw (it does have to be dw before me, cause reading days 2 and 3 w my flip info that mastina TR on them gonna be gone I bet. I intend to make this difficult)
NK TC
yeet tictac (intent to make this difficult also)
NK Mastina
and they in 3p w Bell and Toog, which I'm fairly sure they will lose.

and this assumes no new info from role-reveals and Mastina NA continues to be as useless as it has been to date.

soo @Bell & Toog: always vote for the third person in a 3p and u gonna win.

[tictac]

WoL have been claimed and proven.

Technically,

technically

, this isn't exactly true.

uknow. maybe it's low blood-sugar talking, but would be kinda grand if mastinas claim was public info before moving forward here.
cause if we miss here psure u gonna die, and toog is apparently someone who would say a thing is proven when it isn't
is there like an actual reason 4 keeping it between u 3 still?
UNVOTE:

[tictac]

i'm annoyed at the implicit nature of the no comments.

[tictac]

lol. u got paranoia of the conftown?
wall incoming
pedit: yeah
VOTE: qrow

[tictac]

can't be arsed to check all the links. "notes PT" is the answer if some don't work.
consider this my homage to mastinas walls, tho i kinda stopped caring about formatting/order/sanity toward the end there.

Tomorrow Corporation

Tomorrow Corporation was tracked going nowhere on a night we know that the last scum remaining used a roleblock action. As if that wasn't enough,

that is enough. conftown is conftown.

Mandelbrot

Mandelbrot

(snip)

, as well as having their role be confirmed to not be the roleblocker.

confirmed to be a pt creator, which does not make sense as something a roleblocker would also have. also enough for conftown status.

Dwlee99

had the N1 PT with Titus and Titus lived through N1 AND N2 alive and unblocked

+day2 raid

Hard town

Bell

Bell, are conftown because of meta

+day2 raid

hard town, not conf.

Toogeloo

Toogeloo were scum, the last two nights would not have played out the way that they did, as Toogeloo had access to my fullclaim and we know the scum roleblocker is left alive. As a result, from what transpired and what

didn't

transpire, I am clearing Toogeloo here.

this is actually the weakest cause no multitasking on prev night. will add that he was on day2 raid que and would have been in the raid if elsa outed. also was not included in the plan bears proposed tho easily could have been if scum.

mastina

I am conftown

No

from having been suspicious of all four scum for basically the entirety of the game and being THE main driver behind most of their eliminations. I was the strongest proponent of the Elsa Jay elimination AND I shut down the attempted counterwagons on Tomorrow Corporation and to a lesser extent tictac. I was the driving force behind eliminating WhemeStar and defended RealCheeks.

true

I was THE driving force behind the Mystic Bears elimination, and again, shot down, and by proxy, shut down, counterwagon attempts (again on the likes of RealCheeks among others).

Not true. u don't get mainline-crred for pushing where the wind was blowing. everyone and their mum entered that day going "let's yeet Bears". Me and Toog were on Bears the previous day, but the main cred goes to Sakura.

And beyond all of that, my role (which Mandelbrot and Toogeloo have full access to) is hard-clearing of me as it is a role that cannot be a scum role.

There is zero evidence of this role existing. Toog townreads u, but has answered none of my questions and House def wasn't hard clearing u.

Plus, while my raid success has never been confirmed, the fact is that I've still contributed towards making those raids succeed, and have thus been immensely pro-town in having done so, and scum making raids fail had to deliberately sack themselves in order to do so.

So u didn't choose to deliberately sac yerself if scum. congrats. this is most def not evidence of u being town.

Plus, this is so absurdly out of my scumrange that it's impossible for me to be scum.

Yay 4 self-meta. Always so reliable. /s

(Heck, it's even out of my 3p range since while I play 3ps as if I am town, being 3p instead of town, I still notably have something "not there" which people can and DO pick up on when I am 3p. That nobody has is proof that I'm town.)

lolno. u r weird as heck. me and house picked up on it. u can't just say "nobody suspects me" like that makes it true.
when someone tells u they will conftown themselves any day now, tells u repeatedly they have already done so, even when they very much have not, and dodges every attempt to actually confirm their align, the propability of them being full of ** is not zero. it's quite large actually.

add to that that ur reads don't really seem based on things that happened.

edit: better way to say it: u seem to be executing maneuvers instead of having reads per se.
u did bus ur entire team to be here if scum and I do townread that, but u not conftown, u not even close.

Qrow and Raven

Qrow and Raven is basically:
Nancy doesn't really bus. (She CAN, she just...in general...doesn't.)

it's not just Nancy. I think she is letting gamma drive when it comes to that stuff.

Why's this important?
Because the slot, if scum, has done precisely that the whole game pretty much.
You can argue that Gamma's earlier posts, Nancy wouldn't veto, but this one I feel she would have objected strongly to, yet she did not.

u may be reading them as doing much more collab as they do. Nancy explicitely did not want gamma to be "clingy" on day 1, so it's unlikely that they veto each other like that.

large snip

(Her preference towards tictac isn't scum not voting a scumbuddy, but rather, Nancy doing the OMGUS Nancy is known for and confbiasing as a consequence. Again--something I don't think she's capable of doing as scum.)

i think u just flat wrong on this one

snip

But the real clincher is 5592, where Nancy claims Out Of Game reasons for scumreading WhemeStar--does that sound like an accusation a scumbuddy makes of their scum partner when deciding to bus them? Fuck no, this is a town Nancy through and through. And it wasn't a one-off, either. She was quite insistent on eliminating Wheme, there. In fact, she was one of the strongest pushers for Wheme being scum.

wheme selfhammer kinda makes me think he was a planned bus target.

snip

But really, there isn't an actual valid possible reason for one head of a hydra to be supes kung-ho about raiding, while the other head is not, so it's just

bears+QR

ref1, ref2, ref3, Iii maybe actually wrong about bears doing this? I can't tell the heads apart, so good thing we yeeted that already.

Spoiler: example 1

tictac, if you're angling for your interaction with Qrow to be written off as tvt, I ain't gonna do it.

TvT spats look nothing like this.

- House

okidou.
I'll get back to this tomorrow when i'm conftown.

You need to actually read the thread if you think that’s still happening.

-Qrow

Spoiler: example 2

VOTE: Join Raid
wasn't gonna do this until tictac actually realized trying to scrape out a "townclear" from being off-raid was never gonna work because he'd either get auto-joined or the raid wouldn't fill and he'd be lacking in the actual clear

-Qrow

u do realize that was only ever gonna work if i'm town

there's this pattern of gamma modeling me as foolish!town, expressing derision and calling that scumreading.
i think he is slipping motivation of not wanting my align to become confirmed. (scumz can't become conftowns, if that is unclear to anyone. that is what 'confirmed' means.)

raiding out of 'spite'

: not a reasonable thing to do, yet
Elsa did it
Bears did it... did they ii cant find it now meh
who else.. oh yeah: QR also did it

fakest post

hokay raven, here's the case on you.

day 1:
gamma: is familiar of elsas meta yet his day1 posting about elsa gives easy townpoints for stuff that is fully NAI for elsa (bravery, multiball spec). partner-read or attempt to pocket, currently leanin former.
raven: lied about doing an ISO on AA (described process is not how the site works)
day2:
gamma: was ok
raven: huge reaction to me saying I don't trust them doesn't match them insisting they didn't care if they were on the raid or not. said they wanted contributing slots on the raid, but was fully OK with Tomorrow being included, so I'm calling bull. admittedly I dunno what is the scum motivation to be on the raid given, that buddy already on it.
all of her focus on my read on her("what is tictacs threat-level?") and others reads on me("is he mislynchable?"), none of her focus on whether or not I was town ("

should

i be pushing tictac"), given that 2 slots were claiming info-that-makes-me-town, so its super not rocket-science that I in fact am.

While this isn't exactly all wrong, it's mischaracterizing everything imo.

• My elsa meta: idk why being familiar with elsa's meta means I shouldn't have TRed Elsa's play. And what about how my read shifted throughout D1? YOu conveniently overlook that I actually grew more skeptical of Elsa as time passed.
  
• The AA "ISO": I'm pretty sure what Nancy
  meant to say
  was egosearch. I don't think that term is separated from ISO enough that using the wrong one is a problem.
  
• The D2 raid: I was actually probably the one you should be addressing here, but anyway. I don't recall Nancy ever being okay with TC being on it, and neither was I. You however tried to twist things so that TC being removed was out of the question by trying to make the switch-off a two person deal where Elsa and you switched for Mystics and T3.

-Qrow

defence included 4 fairness.

VOTE: QR
the push on me yesterday was whack.
I'm scummy for expressing a conflicted read on them day1, also i hard tr'd them day1 and conveniently flipped on that day2 to accomplish ???
I blocked them from trading places with Elsa yet the mechanism by which I accomplished that feat is super unclear.
(also I'm scummy for ignoring romances quilty when romance asked us to ignore it)
it all hashes out to throwing spagetti at a wall and seeing what sticks.
eg

starting from a need to scumread me and looking for reasons to

.
(same thing with AA eod1. I now think gamma slipped their motives on 1411)

Here's a theory about what happened day2:
Elsa is not a fall-guy-scum. Elsa is a carry-scum. Him being caught in poe was very bad for the scumteam, but he could not out because then there's nooo scumz in the raid and romance gets a strongwilled result.
Enter

bears-plan

, and suddenly theres a way to get someone besides Elsa to be the fall-guy. maybe someone better positioned so they get some miseets out of it too. So that's why Raven was so hyped to get raiding.
they actually did intend to use the plan to switch places w elsa, and that is why that is the framing they keep using.
only things got cut short by AA and TC, soo i'm thinking those slots are associative probtown.

also
VOTE: Raid

eyy. was right in AA and TC.
here's what i was labeling as AA motivation slip:

Nancy stop!
There’s legitimate reason to SR AA9, I don’t think ellitelling is one of them. You’re just giving her room to hide if she’s scum by doing this.

-Gamma

TL;DR : Stick to the goddam POE.

POE is the MOTHER
POE is the FATHER.
POE IS LIFE ITSELF.

[mastina, QR]

is the

POE

and it shall bring us

VICTORY

.

very unlikely

that rb was in day2 raid, cause then they don't have to fail it and there's no elsa yeet day3. no need for bears to propose an alternative plan also.
basically poes things down 2 [mastina, QR, StD], just from that.

[tictac]

OH YEAH!!
I RULE SO MUCH!!

GG folks!

[tictac]

my PT can be released as is.

[tictac]

viewtopic.php?f=90&t=87659&p=12996806#p12996806

thanks ydr

[tictac]

I disagree on claiming right away, he thought his role, being known, would be a major target for the scum night kill.

beloved princess doesn't activate on NK tho.
could have claimed vig to attract either a scum-kill or a vig-shot.

[tictac]

hope u feel better soon gif.

[tictac]

so we actually yeeted the roleblocker 3 times, eh?
didn't even consider that the role could travel like that.
there was potential 4 a false tracker clear from that but would have taken a lot of luck to utilize it.

[tictac]

Subject: FFXIV Dead/Spectator PT

scum are trying to push mastina.
She will literally be untouchable when she claims her flavor so let’s see where this ends up with.

Quoting this

@tictac

since the MOD seemed to think I was conftown for my claim even if you did not.

still not what 'conftown' means.
even toog didn't hard-clear u from the flavor, so dunno how i'm supposed to.

[tictac]

stll, i'm glad i didn't have to drive a yeet on u after a QR townflip, like i thought I might.

[tictac]

Subject: Garlean XIV Legion Linkshell Network

Oh, I was just impatient because I wanna blurt it out. Not because of anything that's happened. ;>

nah don't lie.[/quotelol. Romance withholding the result was pretty effective, it seems

[tictac]

if one scum who doesn’t have a roleblock is in the raid and gets a strongwill, can the scum with the ability to roleblock

covet

their strongwill and stringwill roleblock?

best autocorrect

[tictac]

tictoc is like a rabid dog with a bone on us.

aw <3
"rabbit" and "carrot" plz. gotta stick w the branding.

Methinks the energizer bot needs to put down the crack pipe.

Nevah!!!