Final Fantasy XIV - A Realm Reborn Mafia (Game Over)

[RealCheeks]

Wait..maybe swap MB with STD because they don't make sense with Wheme. Eh I'll iso each one below top tier and reconfirm but it does feel a lot easier now.
~C

Do justify having us barely above the bottom tier.

That's a grudge read, lol.

- House

Fine it's a grudge but tbh I wouldn't have ISOd you and kept you there.
~C

[RealCheeks]

I dont, but RCheeks doesnt have anyone in the potential strongman PoE in their scumreads, which is weird.

I actually don't think your strongman theory is right so I'm working on a basis that makes sense to me and after you flip me and MB you'll be like omg cheeky is so wise and amazing and I should have listened.
~C

[RealCheeks]

But you specified pushes "in the next few days", which would still be this Day.

- House

I think you like reading my posts since you split hairs just to get me to reply ^.^
~C

[RealCheeks]

Of course, unless you're suggesting that scum has a 2 (or more shot) strongman on top of 1/3 of the raids giving +1 shots and another 1/3 of the raids giving strongman without having to use their shots is nice game balance.

I think you got RB'D D1 and that's why scum let you live instead of Romance since the pool all seem town to me now.
~C

[RealCheeks]

I don't know, they had to RB someone.
~C

[RealCheeks]

Like standard scum play is take out protection, block invest then take out invest unless they felt letting doc live was a better choice for some reason. I know not everyone agrees with NKA but on the chance I'm right, that either a strongman doesn't exist OR the strongman is outside of the pool, then due diligence is to see where else scum could be. From my PoV I know you're wrong, so I'll proactively help you along.

The slots I have trouble with are the cute ones like Bell and MB, there's no reason they're explicitly town but they're both townish and adorable which could bite us in the butt.
~C

[RealCheeks]

My theory is that RealCheeks got caught faking a townread on their other PoE and now cant backtrack it because they didnt know they'd be PoE'd.

I think this is sufficient evidence to support your theories being flawed.
~C

[RealCheeks]

I hate playing scum, but I'm not THAT bad.... anymore ^.^
~C

[RealCheeks]

So the other possibility exists that the strongman exists outside the PoE.
~C

[RealCheeks]

Anyway.
RealC/Bears
the strongman is within those 2 most likely, but doesnt mean the other cant be the roleblocker, i dont see any reason for the roleblocker to be in day 1 raid tho.
That leaves us with:
dwlee, AA9, STD, Wheme, TC, tictac, myself
Are the only ppl still alive that wasnt in the day 1 raid.
I know it's not me, and you shouldnt either unless you have insane paranoia of me.
it's probably not tictac either due to the flavor claim.
It's probably not TC.
and dwlee's in the raid anyway and mandel is defending them like no tomorrow.
So unless the strongman and roleblocker are exactly mandel/dwlee.

RealC/Bears contains the strongman.
AA9/STD/wheme contains the roleblocker.
OR
Mandel is exactly the strongman and Dwlee is exactly the roleblocker.

Q: Why is the roleblocker not in the raid?

A: I think since the raid was already going to auto succeed thanks to mastina, scum would value more having their 1-shots in the raid than the roleblocker, i doubt the roleblocker isnt infinite shots, but if it isnt then Romance suddenly starts looking more sus to me, so im going to assume the roleblocker is infinite shots, and so they wouldnt be on the raid, we already know Elsa had limited shots and was on it, so it's not unusual to assume another limited shot player would be on it. Cakez also was on it at some point but left.

Romance
mastina
Mandelbrot
Mystic Bears

Elsa Jay

RealCheeks
Toogeloo
Bell

Here's the day 1 raid, everyone's free to come to their own conclusions

It cannot be Tomorrow Corporation due to Titus tracking TC nowhere on a night we know the roleblocker acted.

I forgot about this

Speculating further, there is a high chance the scum roleblocker was not in this raid, because if the scum roleblocker were in the raid, there'd be no need for Elsa Jay to fail the raid. There can still be scum in the D2 raid, it just isn't the roleblocker. Since tictac and Dwlee were both in that raid, that leaves the roleblocker pool as precisely:
{ArcAngel9, Whemestar, Save The Dragons}.

This is a good point as well, thanks for this. This helps a lot.

Strongman might be limited shot, but it doesn't necessarily equate to 1-shot, or they could be odd-night even. There is a lot of protection in a doc, commuter and BP raids.

About 2-Shot:

Mechanics Q & A

Q. What constitutes the ability as "1-shot?"

A. Any abilities that says in your Role PM that says "once per game" is considered as an 1-shot ability.

This along with the fact that every flipped X-Shot so far has 1-Shots i doubt it.
Odd-Night would mean there's a problem with the 3rd raid since it lands exactly on their strongman activation, meaning that read was meaningless in terms of reward.
To further indicate that the strongman wouldnt be 2-Shot, with the ability to refill/add shots in this raid, it gives incentive to the scum strongman to be townread enough to not be veto'd out of the raid, much like RC and Bears were.
However I did say it's a 90% chance, the 10% would be that I was randomly roleblocked by scum Night 1 instead of Mirio being strongman shot, I call it 10% because it's not impossible, just improbable.
And speaking of improbable.

Those that townread all 3 of Mandelbrot, Mystic Bears, Realcheeks

(or if you're one of them and townread the other 2), remember this saying:

Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever's left, no matter how improbable, it's the truth.

Here Gamma.
~C

[RealCheeks]

So the other possibility exists that the strongman exists outside the PoE.
~C

No because Mirio died while I was healing him.
So strongman has shot twice within the time they could only have gained a single +1 from the first raid.
If you think strongman has more than 1 shot then:

Of course, unless you're suggesting that scum has a 2 (or more shot) strongman on top of 1/3 of the raids giving +1 shots and another 1/3 of the raids giving strongman without having to use their shots is nice game balance.

If you think I got roleblocked then:

Over the other ppl on the day 1 raid?
After I said that the day 1 raid wasnt useful to me?

The last reason, if scum have a combination of 1-shot and unlimited roles like RB the from a balance perspective town is bound to have those roles too, so it could be seen that you were a PR that didn't require refills because VTs dont say anything do they?

You could be right, it could just be MB but they're basically signing their death warrant being uncooperative with town. Which I don't think scum do? Unless they need to survive to a certain point for some reason?
~C

[RealCheeks]

Yes I guess Elsa did but they're in a league of their own.
~C

[RealCheeks]

Don't get me wrong I'm not saying don't do the PoEs. Definitely follow through with both just be prepared for the unexpected.
~C

[RealCheeks]

Yes I guess Elsa did but they're in a league of their own.
~C

Well since you're so sure MB is town then i guess you're the strongman, sorry not sorry.

I was also sure Elsa was town so yeah fair enough.
~C

[RealCheeks]

Oh MB also defended Wheme.
~C

[RealCheeks]

It would be really funny if it were Bell. I'd nom that.
~C

[RealCheeks]

Why is there so much false information oh my god

One moment please caller.
~C

[RealCheeks]

uh ok im not reading up. I have choppily caught up anyways but like not reading reading up.
Ok so
1) Arcangel is like the most obvious scum or just scummy town. She seems scummy and that means we should let her bake in the read oven for a while longer.
2) Wheme is probably just scummy town. I feel like he's literally just town and people are being dumb. Like Wheme is always scummy and i don't see anything different this game. he's still scummy as heck and that's basically like town indicative when it comes to wheme

-bearbearnor

There's an implication in 2084 that the guilty'd player hasnt posted yet, at least not since the hard guilty was announced. Which means none of those posters were it.
If what you say is true it's highly likely the guilty'd player did post now.

Probably [MB, RealC]

The first part makes sense. The last part is just no.

But what if we elim before she gives us a name? To spice things up a bit.

Are you trying to flip my read of you?

If so, you're succeeding.

- House

Mmmmmmm

I stand by my hammer yesterday, if anyone wants to flesh it out.

Game was a bit stagnant, we were on Day 10(?) and discussion about anything was pretty much done. No significant pushes against any player had been made. Mom hadn't posted in 2 days, and T3 backed up the fact she has a lurkscum meta. Half her votes came like 2 pages prior to end of day, someone put her at E-1 when E-2 is usually the holding ground, and then dwlee spazzed out with the extra votes on a lurk slot.

Seemed to me hammering was a good idea. If you disagree, you can blow it out your shorts .

This is such an odd post.

Any hammer without a claim that’s not an hour before deadline is a bad hammer

Agreed.

I feel like waiting on the guilty is kind of dumb but I’m dumb so maybe it’s not dumb

Seems like the day will inevitably result in us orbiting and waiting to see who the guilty is on so talked about a stalled day

10/10 a town Noraa post to make. Full of self awareness and social anxiety or maybe I'm just imagining the latter part.

House, I feel Dwlee is town.

As on now:

ArcAngel9 - SUPER TOWN MAMA
Qrow and Raven (Gamma Emerald + Nancy Drew 39) - Was reading them scum but they could be town.
Titus - No clue
Toogeloo - Yet to discover
mastina - I am surprised by her playstyle on this game. I want to hear more.
Elsa Jay - No clue
Sakura Hana - Probably Town
Whemestar - Yet to discover
RealCheeks (RCEnigma + CheekyTeeky) - TBD
SirCakez - Probably town
Save The Dragons - Town
Head One and Head Two (T3 + ManateeGal) - Null
dwlee99 - SCUM
tictac - TBD
Momrangal - Null
Mystic Bears (Noraa + Flea the Magician) - Probably Scum
Mandelbrot (House + Yume) - TOWN
Romance - TBD
Bell - Probably town

Mirio - Probably Scum

Tomorrow Corporation - TBD

Partially back today.. No big changes from my last reads!!

I am down to eliminating either Mystic Bears or Dwlee,

We can elim this tomorrow.

I'm a doc so I'm happy to save Romance tonight. I'm also not over the fact that I was disallowed from joining yesterday's RAID.

@mod: Et tu, Brute?

This is just scum unless Sakura is scum which is not true given this counterclaim.

Okay anyways.
VOTE: SirCakez

There’s enough info in D1 for this to feel easy and I don’t wanna drag out half the day teasing this.

Arcangel / Wheme are the top suspects for me based on what they have said about Cakez/what Cakez said about them.

Wagon ahoy!!! [edited: we don't want hammer yet]

I mean... I can believe Sakura is doctor. It makes her earlier statement of "being right but still failed" make more sense.

Yeah, i basically healed mirio but he still died.
Was mad because i've literally never managed to save someone as a doctor, and the one time i was right something interfered with me.
Initially thought strongman, but the current raid reward makes me think it's probably not the case.

scum Roleblocker/strongman stop doctors. What does that have to do with the raid?

Honestly, it's a little annoying that I've been throwing all kinds of hints that we're a PR to attract a NK to save town power just to have half the player list drop trou on d2.

- House

Add me to the pile. Powerful pr # Noraa

skim skim skim

Let me reword, it's actually not unlikely that mystic bears would play with hydra dissonance to their advantage.
I just have no idea if they're doing that here. People have their own opinions about how to play hydras and how they play hydras can vary quite wildly.

For example, I basically play hydras as independent players sharing an alignment and don't try to think things through together.

What. Flea has posted like twice. Where is the dissonance?

Still weirded out by Massy's townread on me but so many scummy people. We leave her be for now. Massy should get on the raid and guarantee it goes thru.

I don't follow what momma bear is saying I got the claim but nothing else made sense.
Agree with Elsa TR though. Wheme, not so much. I didn't see an issue with wheme until recently and the issue is that i don't have an issue with him. Thats not supposed to happen. Like i guess its possible he got a mafia skills makeover or something but he's so null-y that I'm concerned. I'm supposed to be like death tunneling him if this was an average game. Idk but Titus on him tonight or some investigative, could be nice.

Sakura on romance.

Titus on [toog, wheme, arcangel] I have a couple other scum reads but I'm not going to reveal them quite yet. I'll make a better pool someday maybe if i remember. probably won't.

Ok I have a couple things to say and then gotta bounce
1) anyone that has shit to say about Flea's activity can talk to the hand. you have zero right to do that.
2) I will vote anyone that isn't Elsa or a hard townread of mine. This pool is huge. Whemestar, Realcheeky, Toogeloo, Bell, etc, etc. I will compromise on anything. Literally at this point I'm just 10000% right on Elsa. Town doesn't get run up this easily with no resistance. Like the only damn resistance is me and house. And god knows if House is even town anymore.

Ugh whatever I wanted to express my thoughts on Wheme anyways. Wheme is too towny. Thats the issue. I dont know what's wrong with everyone else saying he's scummy. Y'all crazy. He's being like townier than he usually is. And thats why I'm concerned. It's not really like him to be this towny.

He's talking with logic and his brain and not just throwing random things at us.

I remember his town game as being super super scummy and messy. I feel like he's a lot more composed and organized here. It's possible that his town game got better and it has been a couple months. I just think it's not that likely. My only hesitation is the fact that he's not that active this game so it makes me think real life might play a part. Like if I was dying because of homework in real life (like I am), I would be a lot more absent and my inability to engage at the level I normally do might make my thoughts more organized. Or something like that. Vibes are heavily impacted by real life.

Ok I misremembered the last posts as thinking he was town not too towny so.

I mean it's still me or you and it wasn't me.
~C

[RealCheeks]

Glgl.
~C

[RealCheeks]

So you agree that there's a chance that Wheme isnt the roleblocker?

Sure.

I'd prefer if all of {STD, WhemeStar, Mystic Bears, RealCheeks} claimed today so that we could sort the strongman/roleblocker pools effectively.

But lacking them doing so, by default I'm gonna assume WhemeStar is the more likely scum roleblocker in that group.

We've already claimed VT.
~C

[RealCheeks]

Has STD or Wheme claimed? StD softed PR when they were refusing yo get off the raid.
~C

[RealCheeks]

One moment please caller.
~C

[RealCheeks]

VOTE: Join raid
VOTE: TC

not getting off

UNVOTE:

whew got caught up

i could go for realcheeks, would rather do that than elsa

not gonna happen

if you're town you want me on the raid

Mystic bears is town

Why does that make me scum

Why do people think I dont answer things

Cause you don't

I dont know where this came from

I'm not answering that

Btw STD, can you talk about this:

if you're town you want me on the raid

i will not unless absolutely forced to

I thought you said you had to be doc'd if you got off the raid, maybe that was someone else? Still don't know why a VT does this.
~C

[RealCheeks]

StD might actually be scum. Someone check that ISO and tell me it's town...
~C

[RealCheeks]

I dont, but RCheeks doesnt have anyone in the potential strongman PoE in their scumreads, which is weird.

I actually don't think your strongman theory is right so I'm working on a basis that makes sense to me and after you flip me and MB you'll be like omg cheeky is so wise and amazing and I should have listened.
~C

Why isnt it right?

We reserve the right to think you're way off base until MB flips strongman. We know you're wrong on us so there isn't really anything to prove to us you're right on the rest of the poe, which is only MB at this point.

If we go down here, whatever. But our (or at least my) dying wish is that wheme is the flip tomorrow regardless of whatever your Poe says. That way scum can actually flip and then town can figure out whatever they want to do with whatever role poe they want.
-R

[RealCheeks]

Personally, I think RC still trying to justify a wagon on us after our claim is major scum points.

It would take some Galaxy brain thinking to find a way to believe we leave Titus alive n1 to kill a VT, then not only leave her alive even longer, but empower her to use our scum role to coordinate with town instead of simply killing her or choosing different targets to Neighborize to minimize her information.

She could have paranoia targeted us for quite a while if we were scum, or outed our role before building a town case on us.

dwlee still being alive is even +town points for us, as we've been expecting SOME sort of investigational results since d2, yet he's still alive as well.

On top of that, I've yet to hear anyone complain about Cakez shutting down their hood for a Night the evening H1H2 died, but RC was all too willing to conveniently ignore the logical hoops they'd have to follow in order to reasonably suspect us as being scum after this claim until after I literally shoved the facts of it all in their faces and they begrudgingly backed off "for now". It's not difficult to reach the conclusion that they'll be looking for the slightest excuse to continue their railing against us.

- House

I can't speak for Cheeky but I don't think she's that into you dude.
-R

[RealCheeks]

I can't speak for Cheeky but I don't think she's that into you dude.
-R

Exactly. Scum tends to hate town power

dude

.

- House

It's not as big a deal as you're making it out to be. Also, even in your fantasy world where we are scum and super afraid of your ability to make a hood...... There are no gymnastics to scumread you.

Titus didn't claim day 1. Mirio didn't either so what does mirio being VT have to do with blind target selection from a nk angle?

Titus targeting you doesn't clear you it just confirms your role though tbh it's probably not a scum role and makes sense with cakes role flip. I've been thinking since cakes flipped that faking a guilty on wheme as a PT cop was worth it but ehh.

Point I was making though is Cheeky is covering probable and improbable bases and youre throwing a fit over it. For like 3 days now.

[RealCheeks]

Tictac what are your thoughts on StD?
~C

[RealCheeks]

I'm 100% convinced that mastina is town.

is this like 100% convinced normal mafia-speak, or mech convinced where we

actually

don't need the test anymore?

If this raid is a success I don't think it matters too much.
-R

[RealCheeks]

I don't think there's an RB given Sakura dying and the new pt being created via house.
~C

[RealCheeks]

I'm 100% convinced that mastina is town.

is this like 100% convinced normal mafia-speak, or mech convinced where we

actually

don't need the test anymore?

If this raid is a success I don't think it matters too much.
-R

i mean, the scum-mastina world is pretty much the only way this is still realistically loseable, so a low-cost test doesn't seem unreasonable to me.

Well I'm thinking the Poe is tight enough that scum is forced to nk Mastina if town. Strongman goes down then it's over so either Mastina IS the strongman or is just town. Idk if Mastina is mechanically eliminated from that Poe I haven't been that invested.

-R

[RealCheeks]

Wheme hammered early on purpose which could point to scum on raid imo since it allowed scum to fail raid without getting caught.
~C

[RealCheeks]

VOTE: Mystic Bears
RCE are you happy with this vote?
~C

[RealCheeks]

We have the guaranteed scum in these last 3 as well.

No?

TC I don't think that's a guaranteed scum lol.
~C

[RealCheeks]

But wait does scum really defend a lost scum friend right at the death... strange.

MB had done the same with Elsa, though we don't know if MB is scum yet.
~C

[RealCheeks]

We have the guaranteed scum in these last 3 as well.

No?

TC I don't think that's a guaranteed scum lol.
~C

Elsa's a classic busser. He and I go way back to the good old irc chat mafia days.

There was a large game where a scum gave a list of 7 potential scum and they were all town, the last name unflipped on the list was Eddie and town almost lost but got their shit together at lylo...so it's not the most reliable method of hunting out buddies.
~C

[RealCheeks]

Not that dwlee/tictac can't be scum, just that such justification is weak.
~C

[RealCheeks]

VOTE: Mystic Bears
RCE are you happy with this vote?
~C

Don't hate it. But I would hate being wrong on both Elsa and MB because too obvious.

-R

[RealCheeks]

Dwlee. You and Dragons are locked in a room with no way out. Kiss, marry, or kill?

-R

[RealCheeks]

Not sure why there's still suspicion around mastina's slot when they've PoE'd two scum flips now.

Mystic Bears strongman makes sense with Sakura NK since they didn't get a +1 on the failed raid.
~C

[RealCheeks]

Wait there has to be some variation of RB since Romance was cop blocked. So the RB poe was flawed but may still have scum on the original wagon the PoE was formed from.
~C

[RealCheeks]

So who was RB'd if Mandelbrot's action succeeded... and why not block Toog and Mastina having a PT? I think that's important to note if MB flips town.
~C

[RealCheeks]

What do the first two options do

Make him blush uwu

-R

[RealCheeks]

mastina
Mandelbrot
Mystic Bears
RealCheeks
Toogeloo
Bell

Removed dead ppl confirmed to not be strongman/scum.
Tell me RealCheeks who here is the strongman.
Mandelbrot already claimed and their ability is confirmed by me
Toog has been instrumental in eliminating both Cakez and EJ, although less on cakez, that one was mostly Romance, but he literally negated his fake claim.
mastina has also pushed EJ and been pushed by EJ the majority of the game, their actions dont like like SvS.
And Bell's just town.

If you're going by the strongman Poe then it can only be toog/mb/bell (fmpov).
Mandelbrot was confirmed to have used an ability the night Titus was strongmanned and scum haven't gotten multitasking.

We can live in a world where Mastina hard busses her janitor as strongman but I'mma check out of that tbh.

Bell, idk.

Toog has at the very least helped nail 2 scum on flavor. If he's scum the fake claims are likely infinitely better.

We're a town bean....cat.

It's just mb or bell and I'll trust the rest of town on bell. Even if it's not we have two miselims to give? I think.

So you can go MB -> us -> bell and hit strongman no matter what.

[RealCheeks]

Any thoughts about Wheme, Krow, Mom, Sircakez that I missed?

VOTE: Whemestar

You cased yourself at the beginning of the game.

I vaguely feel that gamma is buddying me.

Wheme is just passing by.

More wheme votes.

Also what happens if we eliminate someone in the raid?
Does the raid fail?
Does someone replace them or does it just reduce the number of players that confer a benefit from the raid?

Happy with my vote.

More Wheme votes.

Sorry you’re having a bad time Mastina. Yeah, time is what you need, probably.

@Wheme: sure. I’m voting you almost for the exact reason Mirio is. That is, no content at the time. The current content is not there either. I know you’re sorta floaty and easy going. And perhaps the votes are showing a side of you I haven’t seen yet.but Rn, I’m not feeling’ your town game.

Side note: I don’t know if AA9 Ellie telling counts.

I'm caught up. But I pretty much don't have anything additional to state. As nothing really substantial seems to have happened since I posted this morning.

Flea being on the narrow is somewhat unexpected. But otherwise, I guess I'm waiting for Wheme to obvtown.

Flea being on the narrow is somewhat unexpected. But otherwise, I guess I'm waiting for Wheme to obvtown.

BELL WANNA TALK ITS TEH BEST WAY FOR ME

Gut feelings on everyone Just talk it all out, go.

Ah man my post got deleted.

1. Commentary about signing up for this game for the last 3 or 4 pages.
2. Asking Wheme why he said he was gunna obvtown if he doesn’t know how to obvtown.

There you go, and you're welcome.

This reminds me I said toog can't be scum with wheme. So ty.
-R

[RealCheeks]

VOTE: Join Raid
VOTE: Mystic Bears

At work, so can't explain properly until home, but I'm 99.99% sure that MB is scum here and like 75% sure std is the fifth.

If you want the details prior to this, including why it's not RC, you can ask Toog or Mandelbrot to paraphrase my posts there.

Also, can't submit a raid success until home, but I fully intend to once there.

Ok well unvote till the raid is full.
-R

Ps. I agree

[RealCheeks]

so it's just bears+QR

Spicy. I like it.
~C

[RealCheeks]

Thought on 3 scum left to make number of game days more reasonable with only 1 NK per night? Oh also... why did scum have a body guard? O_o
~C

[RealCheeks]

Bruh why the fuck wouldn't i fake crumb to draw the nk?
i joked around saying i was vig
insisted i must be in every raid

i was some town pr or a town friendly 3p. can't remember which and i didn't claim pgo there. mom claimed it.

Oh maybe this is where RB went instead of Mandelbrot if MB are town.
~C

[RealCheeks]

I still lowkey think the strongman PoE is wrong and I'm a sicker for people claiming they're town. What if it's just Q+R and STD?
~C

[RealCheeks]

Dammit.
~C

[RealCheeks]

Nice posting mastina. Let's get the raid sorted and finish this!
~C

[RealCheeks]

I think the PoE by play reads I'm worried about the most are q&r and bell. I'm also worried the scum team is bigger than we think/noone has really thought about the bp rewards and scum bodyguard. Pretty sure the whole game will collapse if MB is town but at least we made friends along the way ^.^
~C

[RealCheeks]

I think you can pretty safely discount TC as the counterwagon to Elsa, which points more at Dwlee than STD to be honest since Dwlee was pretty insistent on eliminating TC and AA9 over Elsa and Wheme.
~C

[RealCheeks]

If it's not MB I'd be double checking Tictac/dwlee for the team though I know that the witchhunt for strongman will continue through us.
~C

[RealCheeks]

Ok, I feel comforted that we have room. Still paranoid about why scum had a bodyguard yet only 1 kill per night. Is there a 3p role which can save up their shots and take out multiple targets at some point? Because I doubt a scum bodyguard was put in the game just for lols.
~C

[RealCheeks]

VOTE: RealCheeks

I might sheep this. She was also defending Mystic Bears.

Actually, not as much as you'd think. Will explain this in a bit.

What's the PoE, Panda?

Well, by the rb/strongman logic, it'd be precisely:
{RealCheeks, Mystic Bears} for the strongman and {RealCheeks, Mystic Bears, Save the Dragons} for the roleblocker.
And RealCheeks is basically hard-cleared by play ESPECIALLY with a Mystic Bears scumflip.

If we're going by slots being town by play, I'd say the pool is a bit wider, but not by much, per 5773;
With Toogeloo, Mandelbrot, Bell, Qrow and Raven, and RealCheeks all town by play, that leaves a POE pool of,
{Mystic Bears, Save the Dragons, Dwlee99, tictac, Tomorrow Corporation}.

(Again, getting caught up in the thread properly then will be posting the PT content.)

If the Roleblocker is x shot we're mechanically not in that pool.
-R

[RealCheeks]

So raid needs 8/11. The consensus pool of scum seems to be STD, Dwlee, MB and us so if people have to choose who is going on the raid out of us 4?
~C

[RealCheeks]

he'll flip rb

...guess not

VOTE: Join raid

VOTE: Join raid

These two gumboots are already on it.
~C

[RealCheeks]

UNVOTE: just until we sort out the raid.
~C

[RealCheeks]

So raid needs 8/11. The consensus pool of scum seems to be STD, Dwlee, MB and us so if people have to choose who is going on the raid out of us 4?
~C

Don’t you have any thoughts about who should be on/not on that raid?

~R

Well if it were up to me, we would be on the raid. Since the strongman has no shots left, assuming they started as 1x, this raid if successful will force scum to shoot outside the raid in the remaining 3 names. StD refusing to get off the raid again is pretty much a scum claim because scum want to give themselves a bigger town pool to shoot in. Like if the team is exactly StD/Dwlee and we leave them off the raid then theoretically there would be no NK. If one of the two is scum - one will be the NK and it resolves that slot for us instead of having to eliminate them, we can then use an elimination to check the other.

If you omit us, and the raid succeeds then scum will be forced to kill us if the other person outside the raid is scum, which again saves town a flip.
~C

[RealCheeks]

If we have 2 town outside the raid then you know that both scum are on the raid.
~C

[RealCheeks]

Dude if you're a PR you need to claim, if not you need to get off the raid to give town a better chance of winning.
~C

[RealCheeks]

I rest my case. No further questions your honour.
~C

[RealCheeks]

Nothing you or MB can claim will progress town win at this point if kept hidden. One of you/dwlee need to get off otherwise it wastes the opportunity for town to use the info from the raid and NK.
~C

[RealCheeks]

try harder

What do you think I'm trying to do exactly?
~C

[RealCheeks]

Nothing you or MB can claim will progress town win at this point if kept hidden.

wrong

It's Day 6, your lack of usefulness so far proves me right.
~C

[RealCheeks]

What clears do you have?
~C

[RealCheeks]

I guess you will meet the same fate as MB then who has also considered themselves too important to cooperate with town.
~C

[RealCheeks]

VOTE: SaveTheDragons

This seriously needs to die today.

Paranoia about dwlee is fucking dumb. If he was scum, a VT would not have died n1. Either me or Titus would have. It's as simple as that. Get over it.

- House

Can you explain a little because I don't understand how a VT dying N1 clears dwlee?
~C

[RealCheeks]

look folks: if the scum have a pool of 3 vts to choose between or 4 it doesn't really matter.
mastina already confirmed that she's using a shot today so a failed raid can't happen (or mastina is scum).
it's a super cheap way to get actual confimed info on one of the best players of the game.
the-raid-should-not-be-full

The raid will automatically fail if it is not full, and I assume mastina's ability can't supersede that. This is the one raid we do not want to risk failing as it's pretty much auto win if successful due to the potential info gleaned from it.
~C

[RealCheeks]

VOTE: SaveTheDragons

This seriously needs to die today.

Paranoia about dwlee is fucking dumb. If he was scum, a VT would not have died n1. Either me or Titus would have. It's as simple as that. Get over it.

- House

Can you explain a little because I don't understand how a VT dying N1 clears dwlee?
~C

dwlee knew 2 PR's on n1. Titus and I.

Why the fuck is he going to go fishing when he already has 2 positive id's?

- House

Is there a post from D1 which confirms they knew that?
~C

[RealCheeks]

The raid will automatically fail if it is not full, and I assume mastina's ability can't supersede that.

She has claimed that it can.

Not worth the risk today, if she had another shot test another day if she doesn't oh well let her get to elo and so probably wouldn't end game. With the PRs dwindling the slot is bound to be resolved at some point. And even if the test worked I'm not sure what that proves.
~C

Bell unvote.
~C

My bad.
~C

[RealCheeks]

Because it's important that we get the scumreads outside of the raid before an elim.
~C

[RealCheeks]

We're not on the raid. Are you actually reading or just randomly posting to keep up appearances?
~C

[RealCheeks]

Assuming MB is the elim we need either StD or Dwlee or whatever other scumread to leave the raid to force scum to NK outside the raid and do the flipping we want done for us.
~C

[RealCheeks]

Then town flips the remaining player and it's auto from there.
~C

[RealCheeks]

I mean we could elim StD and ask MB to stay off.
~C

[RealCheeks]

So is the idea here to confirm Mastina's ability by having one player less than the needed number of players to fill the raid so she can activate her ability to prove it works how she said it did?
How does that clear anyone else tho.

I think it's best to fill the raid to ensure success. It's not so much clearing as it is giving us the opportunity to check the PoEs based on both the roleblocker and strongman theories.

If StD is town then RB is in a smaller pool, if MB and I both flip Town then Strongman is on the raid. If MB flips scum and we get NK'd then you lim whoever is left which leaves final scum in raid. This raid succeeding saves us wasting an elim on the current scum pool.
~C

[RealCheeks]

MB if both our hydras stay off the raid and we lim StD then we're both dead anyway, either through NK or elim so there's no need to worry about our slot.
~C

[RealCheeks]

I would prefer to just straight elim MB over StD though if they would just get off lol.
~C

[RealCheeks]

VC 6.01

Mystic Bears (3):

Mandelbrot, mastina, Tomorrow Corporation

RealCheeks (1):

Dwlee99

Not Voting:

Mystic Bears, RealCheeks, Save The Dragons, Qrow and Raven, Toogeloo, tictac, Bell

With

11

remaining,

6

votes to eliminate

Deadline: (expired on 2021-10-23 20:13:58)

raid

Raid Queue - Titan

Success bonus for raid completion:

Gains bulletproof for one night

Queue:

1. Save The Dragons
   
2. Dwlee99
   
3. Toogeloo
   
4. Qrow and Raven
   
5. Mandelbrot
   
6. Bell
   
7. mastina
   
8. Tomorrow Corporation

Realm Danger Level: 1

Who's missing aside from us/MB?
~C

[RealCheeks]

Tictac is off the raid. So if MB flips town and tictac is town both scum are on the raid, if one is scum there's at least one in there.
~C

[RealCheeks]

Actually it's not the end of the world if Tictac is off, I think that's still good enough for you guys to figure it out.

VOTE: Mystic Bears
~C

[RealCheeks]

Isnt your claim vt

No I'm a JOAT jester.
~C

[RealCheeks]

But I forgot it people find it hard to elim me in later days and my vig shot on Romance was blocked by Sakura but I don't hold grudges ^.^
~C

[RealCheeks]

Same.
VOTE: StD
~C

[RealCheeks]

I'm actually starting to wonder if I've been pocketed by scumstina.
~C

[RealCheeks]

But what does it prove? Why can't a raid success person role be scum?
~C

[RealCheeks]

It's best to elim StD so that Tictac gets on the raid and leaves us/MB for scum to shoot. If we elim MB and they flip Town, then tictac dies, probably flips town and then we wasted controlling the NK and we get elimmed flipping town which will leave 8/2 if there continues to be 1 NK per night.
~C

[RealCheeks]

Sorry it will be 6/2 which is basically 2 more mislims for scum to reach parity.
~C

[RealCheeks]

No wait it will be 5/2 including the NK after us but still the same path to victory. 1 mislim to elo.
~C

[RealCheeks]

If I vote MB is it hammer?
~C

[RealCheeks]

It doesn't seem like there's much interest in optimizing the NK pool and I think I've done said all I wanted to so let's die with honor.
~C

[RealCheeks]

Might be worth waiting for mastina to see if she has ideas about switching votes since MB/us/tictac are off raid.
~C

[RealCheeks]

I still don't understand how a few people are cleared for townplay but que sera. I feel good that we outlasted romances attempts to lim us.
~C

[RealCheeks]

I still don't understand how a few people are cleared for townplay but que sera. I feel good that we outlasted romances attempts to lim us.
~C

Considering what Romance flipped, that's not exactly bragging rights.

- House

Git gudder Romance
-R

[RealCheeks]

That's exactly why it's bragging rights. Town cop dying wish to miselim us denied.
~C

[RealCheeks]

Yeah we're so survivalistic, Beyoncé better move over.
~C

[RealCheeks]

That's exactly why it's bragging rights. Town cop dying wish to miselim us denied.
~C

That kinda of survivalistic attitude is exactly why I want you dead.

This game isn't about finding scum, for you. It's about not getting eliminated.

That's scum right thar.

- House

You've cracked the code mate.
-R

[RealCheeks]

Flea house is a soft mechanical clear given his role and scum not being multitasking following some assumptions:
- scum do not have a factional ability aside from NK
- there are 5 scum
- the two remaining scum are RB and Strongman.

~C

[RealCheeks]

The reasons for town believing there is an RB and strongman are pretty valid.
- Romance claiming to be RB'd N2 onwards.
- Titus was killed and was BP.
~C

[RealCheeks]

No-one who can undo the janitor kill then either I guess?

yes I just saw that.

Mastina thought some mechanic in her role could reveal the janitored role which apparently did not work as expected due to reasons I forgot.
~C

[RealCheeks]

It is widely accepted though the the janitored role for H1H2 was likely town as they were janitored after NK. What I wonder though is if scum could then see the role and use it to fabricate a strong fake claim.
~C

[RealCheeks]

I disagree with the assertion that Mandel is soft clear. I townread him but I don't think that's the case

Which part of the mechanical clear do you disagree with?
~C

[RealCheeks]

House how many pts have you made?
~C

[RealCheeks]

I feel like the Nora head wouldn't be pushing me so silly as scum because it basically clears us which makes it harder for their partner, that's what's making me think something isn't right. It also doesn't feel right that we're no longer looking for the RB when wheme flipped bodyguard. There was a PoE for RB that neither MB or Myself were part of and there's a high likelihood that the PoE for strongman went wrong somewhere.
~C

[RealCheeks]

As I was saying to the doc, I agree that there's a strongman, I just disagree that it's in us/MB/Mandel.
~C

[RealCheeks]

Please note that I am not trying to divert the current path we're set on taking, just hoping something sticks if my misgivings turn out to be true.
~C

[RealCheeks]

Did we ever figure out if there is a role locker and a strong man or could there only be one.
I believe one shot went through so that confirms strong man but a role blocker is up in the air and the scum might have a different ability?

Both must exist or a joat due to Romance getting no results as cop.
~C

[RealCheeks]

I do too. But noone seems to want to change that by voting in the current raid.
~C

[RealCheeks]

H1H2 said their role enabled them to strongly believe both TC and Tictac are aligned with town so I don't know if a role swap gave scum another ability or if they took an informed role.
~C

[RealCheeks]

H1H2 said their role enabled them to strongly believe both TC and Tictac are aligned with town so I don't know if a role swap gave scum another ability or if they took an informed role.
~C

Are you dumbtelling here

Well it's no secret that I'm a few sandwiches short of a picnic. What made you think it's a dumbtell? Have I made an error?
~C

[RealCheeks]

I'm joking, I hesitate all the time, but I am kind of done with this day phase and just want to know at this point.

I still dunno who the last scum is if MB flips scum. Or who the last two scum are if they flip town.
I'm sort of guessing that there are 5 scum.

Well hate to break it to you buddy but 3 scum have already flipped lol.
~C

[RealCheeks]

Dwlee that^ is a dumbtell.
~C

[RealCheeks]

I need to get some rest I can't even read proper. Think I'm coming down with a fever. Don't know why Bell is in such a rush.
~C