Mini Normal 2248 | A Member Of The Arsonists | Town wins

[lendunistus]

Day 3 has begun!

Day 3 will end on the 29th of November, Monday, 2021 at 2pm EST or when majority is reached.

You may now post!

[LicketyQuickety]

Okay, that's a bizarre kill.

[LicketyQuickety]

Oh.

Well. I think it flips town.

Clearly a sarcastic comment.

[Save The Dragons]

man i wish it were me that died instead

[LicketyQuickety]

I have a case prepared from last night. The NK makes me think it's either a LOL!Scum moment or just made to look like WIFOM, which points squarely at Pan.

[DArby]

I’m writing this currently on a google doc the midnight before d3, and I will be so mad if I somehow end up nk’ed. The second half of d1 took me by complete surprise in pace and intensity so I wasn’t able to properly catch up as I’d like to until now. This hit me while I was about to go to sleep so here we are.

The big question that was ignored, and I feel was done intentionally, was why was Ben specifically killed n1? That’s a really huge question. N1 kills should be reserved for the slot that is the biggest danger to scum OR gives scum the biggest long game advantage. So why Ben? What does scum get out of killing a slot with literally one scum read and a final vote on a vt?

I firmly believe it’s the latter. Specifically I am of the opinion that the nk was done to give an opportunity for scum.

Now as I’m writing this before the n2 kill happens I have no idea if this hypothesis will hold. I will be at work during the time d3 starts. I will add an addendum if necessary, however I cannot make a post in time to do this thought justice, as I truly believe time is of the essence.

Here is what I mean: I believe the Ben nk and the Gamma wagon were coordinated efforts by Pan aka Koba to control the narrative and play a long con game to secure a scum victory.

As I don’t feel like running this in a text editor, all posts referenced will not be hyperlinked.

First, the obvious, what were Ben’s stances while he was still alive d1.

Ben played by mostly producing town reads, which he reiterated multiple times. 511 where he produced the “only ones” he could form reads on and 790 where most of his reads were town or null except the d1 mislim and Gamma, who was scum. Sure, you could make the argument that since Gamma was the only other scum read he had that scum was scared he was close. Me being able to post this in d3 is proof against that theory as according to 799 I was the only person to hold a vote on Gamma until the end. Granted, my push wasn’t amazingly strong, but it was stronger than Ben’s.

So then, why Ben? What was the point of taking him out. With as how many lines were drawn during the end, surely there was a better threat to take out.

And I think that was the point. I don’t think scum could have known his role somehow during n1 before he was killed. However he was one of the most divorced players from the game (ie, being in the least amount of confrontations) while also being a player that could be taken seriously. He was projectable, and that’s how his nk was treated by Pan.

Look at 813. We cannot prove if Pan is or is not part of the neighborhood. There is no way that they can be cc’d. I believe that was quick thinking on their part. Pan has been trying to make themselves be seen an conf town since early d1 (262, 327, and 430 (which I also skimmed thru at first, thank you for your value in me, sorry my input is leading to this)). If I were scum, and a competent and trusted townie that can be projected on post mortem that also tr’s me dies, I’d milk that dry. Not to mention Ben’s only other spoken scum read, although weak, is scum (which I’d know as I am hypothetically scum). This is the perfect target.


Of course, Gamma was an informed mafia. Does that mean that scum knew directly that Gamma was scum? No. However, I still believe Pan would still want to hunt down the informed at least for the same reason as above: towncred. Assuming scum didn’t know who the informed was, they’d either know there was one or could guess. It was mentioned before (by T3 I think).

Gamma was a replacement for Cookie who was on the block mid d1, but they were on the block because of Pan. Again, if we follow this line of logic, from the start Pan is actively trying to look as town as possible and is using aggressive argument styles which would push away anything but a strong and confident read against them. If they catch scum d1, that would put their towncred through the roof. To my knowledge the only thing that stopped Pan from getting what they wanted originally was cookie repping out, StD repping in and eventually Meg being the only logical conclusion for a d1 lem.

I think I’ve made my d1 point.

D2 is where things get more interesting. Now we know Ben’s role and Pan ran with this. It’s the best possible outcome for someone who understands how roles works. They know what they’re saying doesn’t make sense for the intensity of what they’re saying. Why would Ben have a stronger read against Gamma in a PT (815) when Pan literally townread Ben for “talking to open air” in 379? That just does not make sense for someone to be open with their play style to push harder someone in private. I also don’t buy 961. It’s very, very possible for scum 1 to say kill this bitch and scum 2 say lemme roleblock them first. As long as the person killing is not also doing the roleblock, it’s not only possible but very likely to happen. But, that’s beside my point.

The point is I don’t care if Ben was or was not role blocked, I care why he was killed and how his death was used going into d2. Pan was the only one who used his death in any meaningful way to instantly control the narrative to stand next to an actual comf town. Pan wants us to believe they are a conf town in 904 because there’s no counter claim but I honestly believe they got lucky and either knew or took an educated guess that no one else could possibly cc them.

And as much as I bitch about meta, this is the same slot that had a spat with Norwee in Squid Game about needing to take time to properly find scum and yet that is a stark difference to what happened in d2 and a less than 5 page game.

I’m willing to expand on what I’m saying as I’ve made a few rough edits, but I’ll be at work during this time so please bare with me.

TL;DR Pan is scum.

[Save The Dragons]

hell yeah

[LicketyQuickety]

Spoiler: Nobody: Quick:

I think there is a reason to think Scum was on Gamma’s wagon. The reason I think this is because of how early the self-hammer was. There was no fight from Gamma there. It makes me think that Scum feels like they are in a good position given we just Limmed Scum without hardly any effort. It feels like the bus was planned going into D2. So let’s look at the people on Gamma and try and narrow things down a bit.

Gamma shows up 8 times in T3’s ISO. That is out of 67 posts. So that is roughly 12% of the time, which is about normal I would suspect. T3 being first on the wagon tells me it probably wasn’t the plan to Lim Gamma as a bus here. I say this because of T3’s progression on Gamma. And 822 and 826 don’t look fake to me. It looks like T3 was going for a RT in 822.

Gamma shows up 10 times in Darby’s 55 post ISO. That’s about 18%. DArby was technically 3rd on the wagon. This could be a bus, but it feels like it also wasn’t “planned” to be on Gamma because DArby says themselves it was just a pressure vote. This isn’t the bus we are looking for.

That leaves Pan AKA Koba. Gamma shows up only 11 times on Pan’s ISO P1. But Gamma shows up 42 times on the second page of nearly 300 posts. So P1 is 5.5% and on P2 with about 100 posts Gamma shows up 42% of the time. Pretty Damning circumstantial evidence me thinks. 899 is just plain bizarre. NM had already posted in the thread. This is a tactical vote. My guess is Pan wanted to be 3rd on the wagon for wagonomic reasons. However, given just this, it’s not enough to condemn Pan.

I can’t jive with Koba's playstyle. As others have said, “They are all over the map” which pretty much just means they are playing like crap as Town. I don’t care how good your reads are if you are playing manipulative because being manipulative should never be part of your play as Town. As Scum, sure, it is expected. But to play manipulative as Town just shows you don’t know how to play a straight-up Town game. Players like this tend to have very good Scum games because they are so good at reaching out and manipulating players. But the point remains, Koba is not reliable and should probably eat more Lims for being manipulative so they can learn how to play a straight-up game as Town.

Moving on… StD

The real question is whether Pan’s read on StD was ever serious or not. If it was, then Pan might say they investigated StD and found them to be Town. Pan says they are taking StD off the table because of Ben is so they can put StD in the PoE again if things start getting hot. Or, Pan can say they peeked StD as Town to “confirm” themselves as Town. In either case, StD is Town here. That’s assuming Pan is Scum. OTOH, if Pan’s read on StD was never serious, then why did they put so much effort into accusing StD? I recall Pan said they were drunk when they started accusing StD of being Scum. But the strange thing is that even the next day(s) Pan goes back to their vomit on that read. So, if the pattern holds, then Pan is going to pretty much continue to tunnel StD then take them out of their PoE then put them in their PoE and tunnel them some more. This doesn’t necessarily mean Pan is Scum, but it does mean that Pan should probably focus on other players. And it does seem like a distraction that could be used to keep StD from doing anything more productive, like solving other players.

On the one hand, I can see an angle where Pan is just trying to get something out of StD, but like, it’s NOT WORKING, so then need to do something else. If that’s the case then the SR on StD is just pressure and not an actual SR, but Pan makes it pretty explicit that they are SRing StD for real so iunno???

Spoiler: I’m just a poor boy from a poor family

Moving on… an ISO of Pan.

62 is a TMI read.
157 and 160 are weird, and not in a good way. Why mention they are drunk? These two posts I am putting together. The way it reads as a reason for voting StD. More on this previously.
173-184 has some good stuff in between it. In 184 Pan never even considers that Why could be Scum with StD. That’s either bad form or IDK, but I don’t like it. StD’s 176 has explicit Townie Tone Vibes ™. 179 by Klick is really good.
213 and 214 is playing dumb. Because of this, their push on StD was never serious.
253 doesn’t line up with 257. This looks like a buddy attempt to NM AKA Why.
255 doesn’t make sense given my 626 and 645 and I feel like Pan would have been able to see that NM isn’t any more readable than Why. But the whole thing with Pan irt Why was that it was pointless to make a strong stance on Why being Limed or not. So that would mean, again, that Pan’s read on StD was never serious. I say that because Pan’s point was against StD, and didn’t say anything about Why, but the question remains of whether Why

should

have been in the game or not, which at this point we have no way of finding out.
283 is a complete strawman and is only made to discredit Klick.
284 is it a cop siren noise? Pan, are you a cop?



310-320 looks like DArby and Pan are not SvS (Re:310). 320 doesn’t follow from 314 (Re:312) These posts are manipulative af and no one should Town read them for it. Like what? Is Pan SRing DArby or TRing DArby? DArby is pretty clearly Town at this point. Can’t help but see a pocket in here. Like, I would understand if it was “working with Town” but Pan treats me completely differently than they treat Darby, and not in a good way. Gives me the creeps honestly.
327 “you are shutting me down and trying to avoid expanding or complicating your read on me - despite D1 being a low info game state.” The only interpretation of this that makes sense to me is that it's a blatant misrep, strawman, and red herring all-in-one and only done to keep the distraction of StD vs Pan going. That’s the only interpretation of this that makes sense to me. Bad logic =/= Scum, but let’s be real here, this is pretty bad. Like, pot meets kettle X100.
342 It looks like Koba is just saying this for their health or they are just Scum. StD has been cooler than a cucumber. So, either this is a

terrible

take on StD or Pan is trying to formulate a narrative about StD that isn’t there. Not to mention that this is a complete break in the narrative for Pan here. I say that because Pan plays in a manipulative style as Town. But then their manipulation would have to be based on RTs and this is def, not an RT. Read the section on Psychoanalysis here if you are interested to see how I’m getting the break in narrative read.
345 is a completely incorrect meta read on StD. This post is made to make it look like StD is Scum based on a really good meta read, but the meta read is just not how StD plays as Town. StD as Town pretty much just laches on to Scum and doesn’t let them go. And just because StD doesn’t make a huge case doesn’t mean his reads are wrong. I know StD to be a very reliable member of the Town when he is Town. I have not seen StD as Scum, but I have sheeped them before just because I know StD has excellent reads as Town.
357, sure, but misrepping StD is manipulative and brings no benefit to sorting him based on the answers he’s been giving. So, it’s like, okay, be manipulative and do RT, but if you’re doing manipulative stuff that doesn’t end in a read, then it’s Scummy af.
394, WTF will you compromise for? Like, what’s the point? Oh! I see! You’re voting for Cookie now (who flipped Scum). Imagine that! The fact that this was laced with the “compromise” language says this is just a temporary vote and not anything serious.
426 Koba uses the gambler's fallacy here unironically to say they are Town.



430 “also I completely forgot abt DArby but I miss u DArby I value ur input you aren't bad and I'm not trying to pocket u” This so much looks like a buddy attempt.
434 The first line is accusing StD of not engaging with Pan. But, uh, you don’t need to engage with Scum reads much. Like Mafia 101, ignore what your Scum reads are saying and just keep pushing them.
447 is just a gigantic strawman.
452. It is bad that pan votes StD here instead of staying on Gamma, who was E-2 at the time. Pan didn’t want Gamma to die D1. And, conveniently, Pan was not around during EoD1 but they were around EoD2.
457 Freudian slip?
468 This looks like Pan is pretty serious about their StD Scum read at this point.
525 This is posting just to post. I see nothing difficult to understand here and yet Pan is asking ben to clarify something that a 5th grader could understand.
582 is a red herring.
608 LOL. I’m gonna need you to explain this one Pan.
658 is a fake read on me. I know when I am being smug and I was not being smug.
815 Honestly Scum tell. Also, Why would you want Meg to get Limmed out of spite? Meg was nothing but pleasant. Great person to play with. What on earth were you thinking?
823 Freudian slip again? You killed ben for exactly the reason you are saying is “very smart.”
895



899- 909 Looks so much like Pan wanted to be 3rd on the wagon. Combine this with Gamma’s switching votes and Pan voting after DArby so they would be #3 on the wagon. Pretty obvious.

962 Egix might be Scum…

VOTE: Pan AKA Koba

Spoiler: In Case I Am Wrong About Pan And It’s Just StD

Gamma only shows up twice in StD’s ISO. Once in 657 and once in 684. Not a good look here.
158 and 159 are things I feel in my bones.
170 is clever af.
212 is a good post.
224 and 259 are the third-degree burns we are looking for.
347 is a GOAT tier post.
370 is alright. I like him branching out here. Very good look for StD.
422 Bad look hindsight 20/20, but the last post Cookie made at this time was 140 All Cookies posts are there and before that. I wasn’t SRing Cookie when I came in the thread in 546 and Gamma didn’t replace in until 496, but in hindsight, cookie was a bit stiff.
Honestly, Pan should be Limmed for 464 alone given 62. StD is kinda rekking Pan at this point, and it’s not pretty.
528 is rather bad, but I can understand that StD might be suffering from a paranoia condition from T3. Ealier, T3 said if they are TR then they are Scum and if they are SR they are Town. And StD said themselves that they’ve gotten burned by T3!Scum, so this makes sense from that perspective.
635 looks like Town frustration to me (believe me, I understand this as I tend to piss off Town a lot), not a real SR.

And that about wraps up the TvS read I had between Pan v StD.

Spoiler: Gamma Spew

506 and 519 spew Darby Town.
580 Rule of 3 between Pan, DArby, and lol!DeadMegVT. StD and NM lightly cleared.
633 is a good question by Gamma to Pan and there was no follow-up.
634, 635, and 665 are a cluster flip of votes, but I’m clear based on it.
679 is a weird conversation. Read all the nested quotes for context.
634, 682, and 698[/post are all very bizarre and I am pretty much clear at this point based on my vote of Gamma, so I shouldn’t have to say anything to clear myself but I want to so buttons on your underwear.
746 is another post that lightly clears NM.
TL;DR
Gamma and Pan have a lot of back and forth but Gamma never once accuses Pan of being Scum (Why? IDK). Gamma said I was Scum, StD was Scum, NM was Scum, and the coup de grace Meg was Scum. Never Pan though. I low key want to clear everyone Gamma SR. Gamma also TR DArby, but only lightly. Never said anything about Egix, T3, or Enchant.

So based on Spew, Pan is possibly Scum, there is no more than one Scum in Egix, T3, Enchant, and the rest are clear (DArby, [lightly] StD, NM, Myself).

[Save The Dragons]

here's my huge overnight work

Spoiler:

i still think i'm right about pan from d1

tl;dr; pan

VOTE: pan

[Pan Smierc]

This town is fucking hopeless

[Pan Smierc]

I deliver a scum and yall still think im scu
im in the circus

DArby wtf is wrong with you

[Pan Smierc]

Gamma was literally egging on the shitcase againt me on the basis of the hood

[Pan Smierc]

VOTE: nm

I dont shoot into PoE

[LicketyQuickety]

Gamma was literally egging on the shitcase againt me on the basis of the hood

You should probably try and find Scum at this point because you're dead today. Leave a legacy if you're Town.

[Pan Smierc]

Gamma was literally egging on the shitcase againt me on the basis of the hood

You should probably try and find Scum at this point because you're dead today. Leave a legacy if you're Town.

this deserves an antiscummy

[LicketyQuickety]

here's my huge overnight work

Spoiler:

i still think i'm right about pan from d1

tl;dr; pan

VOTE: pan

Clearly, StD has the best case of the three of us.

[Pan Smierc]

I left my legacy
anyone who still thinks im scum needs to just get better at the game

[LicketyQuickety]

Gamma was literally egging on the shitcase againt me on the basis of the hood

You should probably try and find Scum at this point because you're dead today. Leave a legacy if you're Town.

this deserves an antiscummy

You want to rag on my play but you're the one who is going to be eating dirt.

[Pan Smierc]

this town is desperate to speedrun a loss and got upset i got scum limmed

[Pan Smierc]

bro u have 0 self awareness stop

[LicketyQuickety]

VOTE: nm

I dont shoot into PoE

Oh, go after the LHF, very good.

Well, I gues there is another Scum in the game. Pretty sure it's Egix.

[LicketyQuickety]

bro u have 0 self awareness stop

Okay, well, if you are Town maybe you want to play like it.

[Pan Smierc]

Im fucking pissed i open this thread after being excited i nailed a scum and people want to start speedrunning the game

[Pan Smierc]

I FUCKING GOT SCUM LIMMED D2 WHAT THE FUCK DUDE

[Pan Smierc]

WHAT TH3 FUCK DOES SOMEONE "PLAYING TOWN" LOOK LIKE