Slaughter Hour: The Grand Debut! | Fin
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1. i'm fairly confident in my associative reads of her with flipped scum
2. her play doesn't really make sense from a scum perspective, where she's been doing nothing but positioning herself to lose the game for multiple phases, but does make significantly more sense from an uninformed perspectivefree crypto- petapan
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thatIn post 7080, Taly wrote:I don't think TW scum enters endgame to WK a doomed slot especially when it's such a different perspective he's taken from me in games.
He gains effectively nothing by this stance, no?
entirely makes sense from the perspective of someone who is informed but has absolutely no knowledge of the gamestate
i'm not saying ithasto be the case, but
i don't think it's clearing and i think at this point you're just confirmation biasing every new piece of information to support your interpretation of the gamefree crypto- petapan
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god sameIn post 7078, Ydrasse wrote:when i am mafia i am cool and smart when i am town i am incompetentfree crypto- petapan
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it's significantly harder to keep burying a slot you know will flip town
not impossible for a good player, of course
but, see, for instance, event #4
harley entered the game and gave a woe is me both choices are town verdict, frankly far sooner than she should have been able to, because she knew what the outcome would be and was posturing to look good regardless of the outcome
as scum the inclination is to want to make yourself look "correct" about how the flip is going to go because you want your view of the game to seem credible. if you keep digging in when they've already resigned themselves to death you look foolish after and there is a worry people won't want to listen to you.
whereas even though i agreed infinity was probably flipping town i couldn't bring myself to say clear them if i die, i couldn't shake that lingering doubt i had in spite of everything. that's what having an uninformed perspective is.free crypto- petapan
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for context here's worst repping into a game late as solo scum
here's a midgame town replacement
here's another midgame town replacement
presented without comment, draw your own conclusions if you like, he's clearly a competent player so any scum play is going to be mimicking his town play to an extentfree crypto- petapan
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i don't really know that there's a strong takeaway from it? she didn't want to bus and knew town was getting nominated from our end and so preferred it to be town vs town. which is consistent with the play in past games i'm seeing.In post 7100, Taly wrote:Peta do you have any reaction to the fact that Skitter was gunning for you to be nom'd and not Saber?
i have read it, yes. i understand what you are saying. i can see a narrative there. i'm just doing some research right now.In post 7101, Taly wrote:Or read my case on Ggy?free crypto- petapan
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shh you're going to beat me to the punch on the skitter post i'm totally writing, in fact i've already finished it, it's just all in my head and doesn't exist as words anywhereIn post 7129, the worst wrote:the resolution quoted in this post does ring pretty heavy. did skitter go back to pushing ydrasse? this kind of fits within how scum!skitter approaches pocketing i think.free crypto- petapan
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anyway, i get why someone could say the karate match between taly and skitter might look like distancing
neither is under danger at that point in time because it's not possible for either to get elim'd
but question is, if they set them up, and skitter's WIM drops to the point she gets replaced, and taly is supposed to be the carry
why does he try to save firebringer, who was decidedly doing nothing, rather than claim the pelt to look better off that fight? it doesn't make sense from a perspective of trying to endgame.
so that's why i doubt it
i mean, beyond the fact that he's already deadfree crypto- petapan
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there are no nightkillsIn post 7142, the worst wrote:I'm also very wary of skitter's scum ability and deliberately spewing a lategame carry is a LOT more valuable than pocketing someone like ydrasse who is just a completely reasonable nightkill if town.free crypto- petapan
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which is why i'm still here
but the point in particular is that you could claim the skitter interactions might be trying to distance from ydrasse
but that doesn't really fit with how she was treated by the other flipped scum, at all
and if ydrasse is scum she has actively done almostnothingto further her endgame potential and i don't think you can write it off as laziness. she's said stuff that i don't believe comes from an informed perspective, because it was too subtle for most people to notice and wouldn't have been likely to be seen positively.
but i don't particularly care to impress that upon you at this point in time
i've put in the work and made my judgment, if you want to argue otherwise make a case but i have no need for idly trying to chip away at the readfree crypto- petapan
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see e.g. popcorn where (as vulture) she tried to distance herself from enchant/lukewarm to set herself up to endgame: viewtopic.php?f=51&t=87343
very standard stuff
here she didn't really claim any pelts and was just kind of weak toward skitter
and the whole dynamic between her and skitter was off, it was atypical or scum distancing. most scum play it very vanilla, you push me, i push you back type stuff, e.g. the skitter/dunn interactions, which i eventually realized weren't clearing. here ydrasse basically doesn't punch back at skitter at all. were it a different player doing it i wouldn't consider that clearing but i don't think they'd be likely to fabricate that particular interactionfree crypto- petapan
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i guess it's time to write
the skidderpost
skitter is very obviously a skilled scum player, although she's had a rough go of it as scum this year outside of Deja Vu. (one of those is my fault (sorry skitter)). but we can look into her past games to see if she has tendencies toward her teammates and preferences on how to play. i want to look at stuff that is relatively recent, because i don't think old wallposty semi-lurky skitter is that relevant to decoding 2021-skitter, but also want something where she had something of a gameplan going, no unusual setups where bussing was strongly discouraged if not outright forbidden (e.g. Silent Star, Deja Vu). Deja Vu didn't even have daytalk so it's not like there was a ton of gameplanning, anyway.
so let's find something more conventional
Team Mafia 2020 Normal Game
teammates in this one: tris/saudade, xtoxm
choice quotes from the scum PT:
Spoiler:
key takeaways:
- in this game she had to deal with two teammates who were both lurkerish and under heavy suspicion early. she urges them to not get themselves yeeted and displays a preference against bussing, but a willingness to do so as a last resort
- this is reflected in the game thread in this way: she defends tris against attacks early, says xtoxm's posts are bad and continually foses him but avoids actually voting him or even pushing him.
- asks her teammate if they'd be willing to surprise hammer on day 1
- tries to play by understanding the gamestate and controlling it, kind of a go with the flow mentality, take what town gives her, predict the opinions people will have
- although she's gotten good at, scum is still not skitter's preferred alignment. she prefers to keep her team with her rather than solo carry as she tends to lose energy in late game. "demotivated/not high energy is historically a scumtell for me" (i was aware of this)
([bane voice]she merely adopted the dark, i was born in it)
the sentiment about not wanting to solo carry is a consistent one she says in multiple games, she said the same in Deja Vu when i more or less predicted everything that would happen after night 1, i said she would always win in f4 but she preferred not to go there if possible
- feels like she gets stuck on Saudade and can't logically justify moving off him, is afraid the associatives will come back to bite her if she backs off him and he flips first, believes it's "inevitable" and so prefers to stay on for the credit
- after Saudade gets flipped, there's a lot of soft defending of Xtoxm, the things good scum players do, say his posts are bad but make excuses for him, lean on mechanics as a reason to clear him. does wagon him at one point but pulls off and finds an excuse to vote elsewhere while town talks themselves out of voting him
- tries to avoid answering things if someone is on the right track (this was similar to how she handled Morning Tweet in Deja Vu)
so this helps us build a general profile, will tend to distance from teammates but general preference is anti-bus, doesn't like having to solo carry, busses when she feels it's inevitable/can't justify not doing it. pretty standard play, really, not that there's anything wrong with that, standard scum play is good enough to win most games if you can post well.
i know i said this was going to be one post but i realize it's a bit long so i'll do a game by game breakdown in separate postsfree crypto- petapan
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let's look through other games now to see if we can find some behavior patterns:
Micro 930: Neon Mafia
teammate: nomnomnom
choice quotes from the scum pt:
Spoiler:
key takeaways:
- skitter tried to distance from her teammate because she felt it was the most realistic view for her to have. ultimately this trapped her into bussing
- this wasn't a planned thing, it was a consequence of her teammate catching heat in the main thread and her reacting to it
- even so, she expressed regret and a desire to avoid flipping her teammate day 1, but was too nervous to back down
- the way their interactions ingame play out is like this:
skitter expresses disagreement with an early scumread nom pushes, calls it "bad"
says nom isnt out of scumrange when menalque expresses that nom's push might be too bad for him to make as scum
goes against nom in his arguments, accuses him of things like AtE, misrep, disagrees with the premises of his argument
hedges the read slightly by using meta as a crutch
choice quote from the game thread:
Subject: Micro 930: Neon Mafia (Game over!)
this is positioning herself to distance with a "nuanced" sort of read, sides against nom but tempers it by saying some of the points against him are NAIskitter30 wrote:ok i don't think a post-by-post is going to happen and i want to get caught up, so just key thoughts as i read through.
- while i think nom's part of the argument was p bad,i think that at least some of the things luca is scumreading her for is nai; the 1v1 i can see her doing as either alignment, and unfortunately some of the ate too
the stuff she brought up about me was weird tho
- puts nom 1 slot above the bottom in her reads list (lol, lmao)
- continues to call out his posts
- preflip associates him with a townie
- tries to subtly make an excuse to not flip nom that day:
Subject: Micro 930: Neon Mafia (Game over!)
- nom swings back and accuses skitter of being manipulativeskitter30 wrote:
i guess i'm not sure why scum!nom decides to just make a thing about not voting the popular town!quag mislynch rnIn post 714, Luca Blight wrote:I feel Nom/Quags could be S/S, but I also feel Nom could be white-knighting.
I’d feel happier with a Nom lynch today.
in the current gamestate it's fairly popular and people are starting to want eod so i don't think it would be questioned that much
whereas by taking this route she's making a big stink that is getting pushback
and i don't know why she picks the harder route as scum here
- doesn't actually throw a vote on nom until significantly later in the day when she finds there's no good way to deescalate
- keeps arguing with nom, again and again, constant taking swipes at each other
- when the main driver of the nom wagon unvotes she tries to de-escalate, but gets stuck there when there's no alternate wagon and the player nom was pushing on claims bodyguard
so there's a willingness to bus day 1, but a reluctance at the same time. the bus happened because skitter's partner came under fire early and she felt obligated to join the wagon to save face, she wasn't the initiator of itfree crypto- petapan
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moving on. here's a game that i believe is very instructive.
Mini 2136 | City That Never Sleeps
teammate: The Limit Does Not Exist (Something_Smart + lilith2013)
Notably, this was a game where skitter was struggling, and was trying to position her teammate to go deep, rather than having her carry.
choice quotes from the scum pt:
Spoiler:
key takeaways:
- again reiterates, would much rather have a 5 way than a 3 way
- cautious with who she votes/pushes for fear of reprisal
- says she's struggling to come up with things to say, offers to be bussed if she has an off game
- decides to pick a fight with TLDNE in order to distance. this manifests itself in-thread in a pretty typical way:
accuses Limit of strawmanning people
says they're shading a group of people you'd expect to be town based on setup mechanics
says they're following a double standard by jumping to conclusions when they're accusing someone else of doing so
says they're being disingenuous "and ate-y"
limit responds to this with classic aggression, dumps on her repeatedly with quote walls, really tries to bury skitter, the whole nine yards. skitter never actually votes limit but, limit drops a vote on skitter, only to back down when the town decides it does not want to kill skitter, does so by lilith saying she let the anger get the best of her
- says she's trying to build associatives between her and sausasaurusrex/titus in the event she does flip, again this is in a pretty basic fashion, she hard defends rex/titus and continually makes excuses for them
(probably should have read this game before i let cakez die)
- says to bus her hard if it looks like things are starting to turn against her
- starts planning and setting up for lylo in advance looking for who will vote who
so, again, this is the basic sort of expected play from scum who think they might go down and want to protect their partner. they pull back on the read town shows no interest in killing skitter and most people rule them out as being SvS, limit continually leaves themselves open to skitter being scum, expresses skepticism of her, but doesn't actually vote her. skitter questions limit back and expresses uncertainty on them, but waffles back and forth on the read and ends up back at town for a while, finally hedges on their alignment in ELO and expresses skepticism againfree crypto- petapan
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so, hypothetically, there's a world where skitter, feeling the heat in the Pink Room, starts to feel her enthusiasm for the game dropping and tells her teammate to bus her so they can endgame. it's not an implausible narrative at all. so, gammagooey's immediate case on skitter isn't really as clearing as i thought.
but is that the most likely scenario? i'm still not sure about that. there are other factors that have to be considered.free crypto- petapan
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now, clearly, out of everyone alive, i would quite obviously be the best suited to endgame as last scum! however, there's a couple good reasons why it's not me:
- i could easily have avoided dunnstral being in the duel if i wanted to yet got him put there anyway with the last second hop; at any rate my progression on him was too messy for me to be scum, if i was aware of his alignment i'd start pushing against him sooner because he'd have no endgame potential
- skitter was very obviously struggling to come up with arguments against me when she had nominated me, this is because she knows i'm town and couldn't find real reasons to attack me. as her teammate i'd be more cognizant of giving her something to work with so we could actually have a strong 1v1, and i think she'd probably have an easier time finding somethingrealto respond to me with
- saber/HQ blew it by spewing me town, scum don't getthatmad at being bussedfree crypto- petapan
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Subject: Mini 2247: Mountain Dew Mafia - Mafia PT
loooolskitter30 wrote:Ya
Hmm kinda wondering if i should go for a hard defense, t'would be ant-meta
Dunn is eventually gonna get flipped now
on the one hand, a complicating factor
on the other hand, this was well after this game started and shortly before she got replaced in this onefree crypto- petapan
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Subject: Mini 2247: Mountain Dew Mafia - Mafia PT
still trying to stay away from the D1 bus thoughVenus Fly Trap wrote::doffs jester hat:
gonna push you a bit and loudly complain i think you're scum but when your wagon fails to materialize i'm gonna hop onto emmi while complaining about how you lot are getting away with itfree crypto- petapan
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Subject: Mini 2247: Mountain Dew Mafia (Game Over)
Subject: Mini 2247: Mountain Dew Mafia (Game Over)Venus Fly Trap wrote:i've got dnd momentarily but i'll be around some more this afternoon
gonna start by voting here:
VOTE: mm/bears
the other person i'd want to vote is emmi
~ skitter
show this vote count to prism to make her die instantlyCabd wrote:Vote Count 1-9
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Subject: Mini 2247: Mountain Dew Mafia (Game Over)
classic tmi scumbuddy read. useful to note.Venus Fly Trap wrote:i think you should have stayed on bears but this is a decent alternativefree crypto- petapan
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fuck me
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this was the quote from ydrasse's iso and it looks informedIn post 3186, unwnd wrote:Basically don't think Skitter scum defends Cakez the way she has if Cakez is scum and I still think he is so yeah.free crypto- petapan
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but, of course, the chair wasn't a regular execution. scum probably knew it was a kingmaker. they might not have wanted town in that spot.In post 7175, petapan wrote:tactically, shit makes no sense for skitter to have flipped a vote on galron on day 1. none. totally out of character.
but why the scum pile-on on gamma emerald thenfree crypto- petapan
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sorry this is the patented lategame paranoia spiralIn post 7179, Ydrasse wrote:plaese don't make me think more and let me just have minimal brain power in this gamefree crypto- petapan
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this post is killing meIn post 2517, skitter30 wrote:i think it's possible i may be slightly tunneled on the galron slot and want to give unwnd a bit more space rn
in the meantime
VOTE: dwleefree crypto- petapan
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fhgdhjfgkfgjfdhfjgdhfjdfjIn post 1234, skitter30 wrote:
You feel very weird and like muted as compared to radio buzz. There iirc u also kinda missed fhe beginning of the game but ur contributions were p quickly p townie. Idk if the difference here is that u need more time to get into the swing pf things, or if ur just scum. Dunno how to differentiate between those universes just yetIn post 1110, Galron wrote:I'm caught up enough I think. I just haven't found anything to really dig into. The mechanics seem the most interesting thing, but I don't think it's really the right time to talk about that, at least until we have the first challenge under our belts. My reads are awful, and I have this impression that no one's done or said anything really noteworthy. Like in Radio Buzz by this time we had several 1v1s or 1v1v1s. I see a few here, but they're junior varsity spats. I'm seeing what I think is a frustrated Gamma leading the pack, but I'm not sure why he's so scum read, which makes me think I need to go back and read the beginning of the game again, which I started doing. I do kind of agree with whomever said that thing about Ceph being similar to RB, and I think I need more than just that feeling to scum read him I think. I dunno, I'm just missing a ground hold here.
Is there anything i can do to help you get into the game?free crypto- petapan
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that was kind of the thing yeah
like in a hypothetical world gamma emerald starting a dueling SVS wagon would be absolutely disastrous for the chair and it would explain why skitt tried to spring a wagon on galron when GE was E-1
but is that almost too bold? she seems averse to actually being caught off a teammatefree crypto- petapan
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In post 4561, Harley Quinn wrote:In post 4547, SirCakez wrote:
this is definitely OMGUS lmaoIn post 4545, Harley Quinn wrote:
Gypyx I think.In post 4487, Gammagooey wrote:Hey Harley, have anyone you definitely want to leave out from crossing at the moment?
I’m also having doubts on Cakez and Skitter.Maybe so but I think at least one scum is pushing me, so I’m not tr anyone who does that unless I have other reasons to think they’re town.free crypto- petapan
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she was barking at me for a while, where with him it was...this
In post 5045, Harley Quinn wrote:
Okay, lost my initial tr on this slot. Ydrasse should never be left behind.In post 5038, Gammagooey wrote:I finished rereeading through some stuff to try to read Ydrasse and Gypyx better and it was mostly not helpful. I do think I should downgrade Gyoyx/Prism from strong town to regular town read b/c most of my read came from the Prism slot and just Gypyx *efforting* but he still comes across as town to me
Ydrasse wasn't around much for pages like 50-70, kinda helped start the Galron wagon and then wasn't around for a while but also those pages were like a single real-life day so I don't think it's anything to really hold against her. Ydrasse also wasn't around a ton in blue PT which is slightly eh but most of her content there was pushing Toog which I can't really fault either.
My perfect left behind-team atm is prob skitter/Saber/Ydrasse/whoever Ydrasse wants to take down with her but I'm much more concerned with just getting skitter/saber dead atm
If Taly gets within hammer range of sending across I'll do it even though I want him to go later, but also I want to be slamming through the first 4 people once we've got the 1st person crossing.
VOTE: petapan for now
oh hey more posts. I would still push dwlee through too and be perfectly happy about it, so if more votes go in that direction I'll jump back on dwlee wagon. Gemerald is also fine would vote to cross
oh and LAST THING I probably don't have much time to post until Saturday evening except for tomorrow morning and pop-ins to change my vote as a heads-up.free crypto- petapan
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and...thisIn post 5051, Harley Quinn wrote:I did but his interactions with Skitter looked weird to me, something was off there and then him wanting to leave Ydrasse behind kind of sealed it for me. I don’t like the way he keeps referring to her (Skitter’s) slot. I’m getting possible buddy vibes from their posts. When he sr her, she didn’t get upset about it and he keeps saying he wants to leave her behind but only talks about wanting me dead. That doesn’t sound like town making a good faith sorting of me. Those kind of posts generally come from scum trying to push a miselim. I just don’t buy it.
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i feel like i'd have more accurate reads as scumIn post 7210, Ydrasse wrote:Petapan you aren't scum making a fool of me are you.
which is probably why it's gammagooey: he's occupying the position i would be occupying as scumfree crypto- petapan
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- Posts: 11748
- Joined: May 8, 2012
- petapan
-
petapan Survivor
- petapan
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 11748
- Joined: May 8, 2012
- petapan
-
petapan Survivor
- petapan
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 11748
- Joined: May 8, 2012
- petapan
-
petapan Survivor
- petapan
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 11748
- Joined: May 8, 2012
because you should be playing like it isn't taly, that degree of laziness is inexcusable from town but makes sense if you just ran out of people to busIn post 7223, petapan wrote:like mothfucker how do you sit there as town and still do "derp i think it's just taly" this far into the day phase and not evaluate for contingencies
we might have been really close to outright losing the game if cakez hadn't sacrificed for ydrasse
on me for throwing in heaven i guessfree crypto - petapan
- petapan
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