Open 837: Cop Killer - Endgame


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Post Post #62 (isolation #0) » Sat Nov 27, 2021 6:35 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

Hello hello old friends and new

VOTE: Roden

Didn't like his first post, I think using a past game to justify RVS vote is inherently a lil awkward

Also I like Galron for town
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Post Post #64 (isolation #1) » Sat Nov 27, 2021 6:39 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 12, mc esther wrote:UNVOTE:
VOTE: Salsabil Faria

was buddying in the queue
Why did you unvote Enchant here, mc?
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Post Post #67 (isolation #2) » Sat Nov 27, 2021 6:50 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

mc I didn't mean to suggest that it wasn't :P
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Post Post #73 (isolation #3) » Sat Nov 27, 2021 7:28 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

Why not vote me then?
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Post Post #78 (isolation #4) » Sat Nov 27, 2021 7:39 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 75, Bingle wrote:
In post 73, GuiltyLion wrote:Why not vote me then?
VOTE: GL

Why am I voting you?
Do you also scumread my intro post for being somewhat rote?
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Post Post #119 (isolation #5) » Sat Nov 27, 2021 10:46 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 112, Roden wrote:Awkward post
Does that make it any more townie or scummy in your eyes? The implication would be that it's scummy, but here you then go voting a player that hasn't posted yet instead of a player attracting votes. Not a very satisfying reply
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Post Post #120 (isolation #6) » Sat Nov 27, 2021 10:48 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 116, T3 wrote:
In post 64, GuiltyLion wrote:
In post 12, mc esther wrote:UNVOTE:
VOTE: Salsabil Faria

was buddying in the queue
Why did you unvote Enchant here, mc?
isn't that like... rvs and all?
I wanted to hear mc explain in their own words because every other post of theirs has been really over-explainy and I'm trying to get a sense of their personality
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Post Post #122 (isolation #7) » Sat Nov 27, 2021 11:05 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

Makes me feel like Roden wanted to discredit my vote as non-confrontationally as possible
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Post Post #131 (isolation #8) » Sat Nov 27, 2021 2:13 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 128, Roden wrote:Because I only have one vote.
Yes, right, and my point was you chose to use that singular vote on a player who hadn't posted yet rather than one who you just said was awkward, who was already drawing attention in the thread. This isn't a counterpoint?
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Post Post #133 (isolation #9) » Sat Nov 27, 2021 2:16 pm

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In post 130, LicketyQuickety wrote:This is over aggro. Sort of feels fake.
being fair to Roden, I basically challenged him in my last post to go at me, so I'm not surprised to see him bite back. What I'd like to actually hear from him though is why he thinks my behavior is more likely to come from me as scum than me as town, because that's what's missing
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Post Post #134 (isolation #10) » Sat Nov 27, 2021 2:19 pm

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In post 128, Roden wrote:Ok, good to know we've never played before then.
also, what am I supposed to take from this? That you are always non-confrontational and it isn't AI? or are you saying that you actually
are
confrontational as town? because that would make you addressing my vote on you by calling me "awkward" while joke voting an empty slot even worse
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Post Post #139 (isolation #11) » Sat Nov 27, 2021 3:26 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 135, Roden wrote: Ok...?

Why do you think I should have voted you before LQ?
I don't like early game memeing, it's by and large just noise. Scumhunting at this stage for me is about poking at/pressuring people who look like they don't have a comfortable place to vote or people who aren't using their vote for any real purpose. Once people have posted and started doing stuff, voting somebody who hasn't posted at all yet is about the lowest information play possible.

If a townie thinks me being awkward makes me more likely to be scum, they should vote me, because that will actually generate useful content for them both in terms of how I respond and how other players interpret/react to the vote. Nobody has anything to say about a vote on a player who hasn't posted yet. So I don't like that you expressed a perfectly good reason to vote me at this stage ("awkward post") and instead put that vote on LQ, I think town should be more proactive pushing for reactions and content from players they find suspicious. Somebody who hasn't posted within a day of gamestart is not suspicious.
In post 135, Roden wrote:Where did I say this?
In post 135, Roden wrote:It's RVS, nothing I say right now has any actual meaning beyond seeing reactions. If anything, it's weirdly self-conscious of you to assume awkward = scummy.
That's why literally my first question in was whether you think "awkward post" is townie or scummy. I am not here for passive shade that's left up for interpretation by the reader. If you don't believe it's scummy in your heart of hearts, you probably shouldn't be suggesting that it could be. And if you do believe it might be scummy, then you should leverage that to pressure me. [That's why I asked Auro why he wasn't voting me as well!]

This weaseling of "I didn't say it was scummy!" doesn't at all address the main issue I'm trying to force here - if anything it's just exacerbating it - which is that you felt a need to respond to my vote but didn't use your response to either sort me or push me, and that's low-info play that has so far just reinforced my early bad gutfeels about you
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Post Post #140 (isolation #12) » Sat Nov 27, 2021 3:27 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 137, DArby wrote:
In post 136, Pavowski wrote:
In post 135, Roden wrote:It's RVS, nothing I say right now has any actual meaning beyond seeing reactions
Nah, you and GL have moved right on out of RVS with this little kerfuffle
Do you read it as TvS?
DArby can I get an answer from you on your own question? happy to wait until Pav responds if you're trying to get his take first
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Post Post #153 (isolation #13) » Sat Nov 27, 2021 4:15 pm

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In post 146, Roden wrote:This is an even weirder excuse to attack me when we have people voting the IC. Why are you ignoring them?
Who do you think I should be paying attention to? I don't believe
everyone
that does low-info useless meme shit is scum, I try to have a discerning eye. If I've missed a good candidate for suspicion, help me out. Otherwise this seems like you're just trying to deflect my attention on you onto the first place elsewhere that you can.
In post 146, Roden wrote:You literally only sound scummy now because you're largely overreacting to something that wasn't that deep.
Do you think scum or town or more likely to "overreact to something that wasn't deep"? Again, as I said in , I'm curious why you think scum!me would play like this yet town me would not.
In post 146, Roden wrote:You say I didn't have a good reason to vote LQ and that doing so doesn't cause reactions and generate content. This is blatantly untrue though since it very much has.
uhhh... pretty sure the only content that has been generated by it was directly because of me grilling you about it, so you don't get the credit for that! sorry, nice try :]
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Post Post #155 (isolation #14) » Sat Nov 27, 2021 4:17 pm

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In post 152, DArby wrote: At the very least I don’t think it’s scum theater. It’s too soon to say otherwise.
the thing that's difficult with multi ball is that scum can authentically scumhunt for the other faction, so even if people aren't S-S aligned, they could be S-S unaligned. Not that that's the case here cause I'm town, but it's going to be hard to make definitive T/S reads on D1
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Post Post #158 (isolation #15) » Sat Nov 27, 2021 4:20 pm

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In post 145, T3 wrote: LQ is feeling WILDLY different than I remember from town him
what do you remember from town!him?

I've got a decent amount of experience with town!LQ but not a lot that I can remember of scum!LQ
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Post Post #169 (isolation #16) » Sat Nov 27, 2021 4:29 pm

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In post 159, DArby wrote:
In post 155, GuiltyLion wrote:
In post 152, DArby wrote: At the very least I don’t think it’s scum theater. It’s too soon to say otherwise.
the thing that's difficult with multi ball is that scum can authentically scumhunt for the other faction, so even if people aren't S-S aligned, they could be S-S unaligned. Not that that's the case here cause I'm town, but it's going to be hard to make definitive T/S reads on D1
Oh. Hm. Obvious but i didn’t think of that.

Is it clear this is my first multi ball yet?

At the very least I don’t think they’re on the same team.
it's all good, I thiiiink that I think scum here is less likely to speculate about T/S in the way that you did so you get a pass into the D1 townclub, huzzah!
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Post Post #284 (isolation #17) » Sun Nov 28, 2021 8:52 am

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In post 178, DArby wrote:
In post 175, mc esther wrote: im pretty sure t3 is talking about guiltylion, seeing as that's who he quoted and that's where his vote is.
I wouldn’t be surprised if T3 mixed GL and LQ.
aaah this actually makes those T3 posts make a lot more sense.

I'm definitely playing more aggro so far than I did in Situation Room (my only game I had with T3 I think), so I can buy town!T3 making that read. Situation Room was a completely different situation tho, initial one being that I was overgamed at the start of Situation Room so D1 I had to sit back for a lot of the early part of it
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Post Post #285 (isolation #18) » Sun Nov 28, 2021 8:55 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 191, Roden wrote:Honestly LQ why are you scum reading me at all when you've recently seen two of my scum games in depth? You should know this isn't it from my opening posts alone.
Roden, I'll give you an honest, non-confrontational reach out on this point

Can you explain why you think your opening posts are town enough that we should already conclude that this isn't your scum game? Wouldn't that be a tremendous insult to your scum game, if your town game is so apparent in contrast to it that you claim it takes just a couple opening posts to rule out the possibility of you being scum?
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Post Post #286 (isolation #19) » Sun Nov 28, 2021 8:57 am

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In post 201, T3 wrote:town lq
sorts people, actively scumhunts, makes walls
scum lq
just says his reads on people, one liners
VOTE: lq
thank you for coming to my ted talk
oh wait I guess I should actually do a full read through before catching up, so T3 didn't mix us up?

this is a pretty shallow meta read, not convinced
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Post Post #287 (isolation #20) » Sun Nov 28, 2021 9:03 am

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In post 226, Auro wrote:Did you read anything off my lack of vote?
not anything especially specific/strong beyond my general "not using your vote with purpose is antitown" standard, but I do wish you'd start using it!
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Post Post #290 (isolation #21) » Sun Nov 28, 2021 9:21 am

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my one main salient takeaway from the LQ/Roden bit is that both are making dubious claims on one particular front

Roden in asks LQ if LQ thinks Roden "purposefully puts himself in this situation as scum". Again I think Roden is questionably taking credit for something that I feel I'm responsible for (early wagon/pressure on Roden). The logic of "why would I get wagoned as scum" isn't easy to understand from either a town/scum perspective, it's not clear what Roden specifically thinks that he did to get himself wagoned and whether that was intentional. However I have seen both alignments make the "I wouldn't be wagoned if I were scum here" claim, it's not something I feel comfortable reasoning about as AI but I certainly don't townread it, at best it's WIFOMy.

However, Roden has a point in that LQ agreeing that scum!Roden might indeed intentionally "put himself in this situation" is also a bad take. Scum do not love early scrutiny, in almost any circumstance. I don't see LQ's logic in implying that this COULD be a scum plan - again, how and where did Roden even intentionally invite pressure on himself? Whatever Roden's alignment is, I'm sure he'd rather not be voted and rather not have to argue with people voting him.

I can see what LQ is saying in that LQ just kinda went along with an idea (being intentionally wagoned) that Roden put out there, but it's just such bad reasoning on both sides ("if I were scum, I wouldn't be wagoned") ("no, if you were scum, this might be your plan!!") that I'm having a hard time parsing why either player is taking any of the logic seriously.
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Post Post #291 (isolation #22) » Sun Nov 28, 2021 9:26 am

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I think if I try to get into LQ's brain I can see where he's coming from overall, so I prefer staying on Roden here. But I would like Roden's answer to my because I think the claim of "this should obviously be seen as not my scum game" is the real heart of everything that followed after that ("if I were scum, I wouldn't be getting pressured" being the subsequent claim)
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Post Post #375 (isolation #23) » Mon Nov 29, 2021 6:49 am

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In post 370, Bingle wrote:Hm. Still don’t like GL’s entry. Also firmly disagree with P2, and don’t think GL believes it either. Early scrutiny is great for above average scum because it’s not likely to actually go places and it helps explain why you’re not dead in the late game. Also, classic “that’s town because it mirrors NAI/scummy thing I’m doing” here.
I'm not really following this post at all

1) Do you think Roden is "above average scum"? If so, what is that based on? He has already claimed in the thread that this should be obviously seen as his town game - which I already pointed out means his scum game must be really bad if he honestly believes that.

2) I also just don't agree with you on "early scrutiny being great for scum". There's a vig in the setup and another scum faction who won't care if you're limmed or not. when I'm scum I always feel better when I'm coasting than when I feel like I'm expected to post and answer for the questionable shit in my ISO

3) I don't understand the last sentence at all, I don't know if it's a miscommunication or you not understanding my post. Where do you think I'm calling anyone town in that post? Did you misunderstand my point about how I don't buy Roden claiming to "put himself into this situation" - because the "situation" is literally just me and LQ grilling him for a bad early game
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Post Post #377 (isolation #24) » Mon Nov 29, 2021 7:03 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 356, Galron wrote:
In post 62, GuiltyLion wrote:Hello hello old friends and new

VOTE: Roden

Didn't like his first post, I think using a past game to justify RVS vote is inherently a lil awkward

Also I like Galron for town
Why the TR so early?
In post 357, Galron wrote:
In post 356, Galron wrote:Why the TR so early?
Throw meta out.
~ vibes ~. Unfortunately I can't really comply with the request to throw meta out. But I thought your early game questions in and struck me as someone looking to substantively push the game forward with genuine/fair intent to sort mc esther, who was also a confusing slot for me as well

speaking of mc esther I like their latest posts a lot more and I vibe with their push on Salsa so I'm coming around to a townread on her as well
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Post Post #381 (isolation #25) » Mon Nov 29, 2021 7:33 am

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In post 379, Bingle wrote:The premise of “scum don’t want early scrutiny” when you’re actively making yourself a central pillar of thread activity reads as a kind of incepted lamist.
ah okay, I see what you're saying. You're wrong with your conclusion but I see the thought process.

I think LAMIST tells work best when the LAMIST activity in question is something that the person is ~only~ doing because they are scum and they think it looks town (so, making posts/arguments that don't come from them as town because they don't think of it at all). You're probably right in picking up a "GL thinks making himself a pillar of thread activity is townie" vibe from my posting/arguments but that's because I authentically think that's what good townplay is supposed to be, and I think that as either alignment.

Probably the disconnect on the other point is I don't think I was "shitpushing" Roden, I came at him with an early game hunch that occasionally points to scum (using a past game as a justification for your RVS vote) and then he responded poorly by discrediting me while also ignoring me, which prompted me to keep pressuring him. That's just real pushing, not shitpushing.
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Post Post #427 (isolation #26) » Mon Nov 29, 2021 1:18 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 391, Bingle wrote:Where is the GL townfire? Where is the grabbing the thread by the horns? Where is the three page analysis of whether Bingle actually says he hammer his partner for the loss that you freak out about two pages later and completely drop?
I'm satisfied that I understand where your suspicions are coming from now, but I promise you will see that townfire once I have reads I feel it's worth bringing the heat for :D
In post 391, Bingle wrote:Y/N this is an angle of investigation you actively believe results in a roden lim and not a preliminary push looking to gauge reactions.
is "preliminary push looking to gauge reactions" what you meant by "shitpush"? I thought it meant more along the lines of pushing someone for bad or easily refutable reasons. I don't think I subscribe to this dichotomy in this question - I want more reads/participation from everybody and to feel better about my overall reads and limpool before championing a lim on anyone, but I do think my points against Roden and his defensive responses were valid for early game pressure and I have not yet felt town vibes from anything he's posted.
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Post Post #429 (isolation #27) » Mon Nov 29, 2021 1:34 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 393, Almost50 wrote:I; King of thread and ruler of both Town & Mafia alike; have decided in all my mighty grace to request order all of my subjects and minions to each provide a 3-players list of their top TRs (NOT including self).
DArby
Galron
Pav

^ these three feel the most pure / agendaless to me

LQ and Mc Esther get honorary mentions in that I definitely feel mindmeld with a lot of their takes and don't doubt the sincerity in most of what they've posted, however, with these two more than the three above TRs I could imagine them being scum tapping into authentic reasoning to scumhunt for the other faction. I can't really explain/distinguish between that and town, and I don't want to lim them today, it's just a vibe thing in conjunction with me being cognizant that there's 4 scum and I'm probably townreading scum when I shouldn't somewhere.

Bingle and Auro in a "I guess I like what they've posted overall so far but it's not unfakeable" tier

everyone else (Roden/T3/Enchant/Salsa) I haven't felt any townpings from yet and I'm pretty content with dueling Roden/Salsa wagons as those two have actively pinged me as disingenuous moreso than T3/Enchant
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Post Post #465 (isolation #28) » Tue Nov 30, 2021 7:13 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 432, Auro wrote:Walk me through your Galron read, I can't see it? Like sure, some of his questions are "pro-town", but what makes them likelier to come from town!Galron?
I understand that it's not the most transparent/understandable read, and I wish I could explain the read better but I currently cannot. It's largely a vibe thing and I'm certainly open to re-evaluating as the game continues - if the motivation for this question is that you think Galron is scummy then I'd encourage you to lay out your thoughts - but right now I think he's town
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Post Post #466 (isolation #29) » Tue Nov 30, 2021 7:15 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 445, Salsabil Faria wrote:
In post 440, Pavowski wrote: A NK'd GL would be another story.
What do you mean by that?
In post 453, Auro wrote:
In post 440, Pavowski wrote:I would also go as far as to say that if we should flip GL, and he turns town, that would be scum indicative on Bingle given the recent shade. But I also kinda don't think GL is likely to get flipped. A NK'd GL would be another story.
If you townread GL and acknowledge he's pro-town, why on earth would you flip him to determine Bingle's alignment instead of flipping Bingle directly?

Signalling to the other scumteam, aren't ya :D
I am not a fan of either of these questions, I thought Pav's reasoning was pretty clear.
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Post Post #469 (isolation #30) » Tue Nov 30, 2021 7:29 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 468, Salsabil Faria wrote:If I don’t understand something, I'll ask.
sure, but it feels like you're trying to drag Pav into a debate about claims that he didn't make or arguments that aren't important. From my impression of his original , all Pav was saying was that if he were to
know
that I am town, he would then think that Bingle's shade on me might indicate Bingle scum. However, as soon as you say something like that it can poison the well for NKA (a non-Bingle scum team might shoot me in an attempt to make Bingle look bad), so he wanted to clarify that he doesn't also think me being NK'd would
further
make him suspect Bingle. This is also basically exactly what he then clarified in and .

You're trying now to get him to talk about what he thinks scum!Bingle would or wouldn't do, which I don't see as all that meaningful or useful. No one has been killed yet, it doesn't develop nor change my understanding of his original posts, and it isn't something that Pav would have different reasoning about whether he's town or scum. Hence, I don't understand how the line of questioning actually helps you sort Pav, it feels like busywork at best and at worst potentially trying to stir up "issues" with Pav that you can then use to push him.
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Post Post #470 (isolation #31) » Tue Nov 30, 2021 7:34 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

also to clarify further, my issue with Auro's question is slightly different than my issue with Salsa's - Auro is wise enough to not too obviously stir the pot for the sake of pot-stirring, and he has since backtracked slightly in , but I think his question indicates he wasn't paying full attention or trying to understand Pav's posts with a charitable eye. That makes me think it could be a scum mindset of more actively looking to interrogate posts rather than evaluate and understand them. I know when I am scum I am more likely to jump at my own misreadings of posts like that.
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Post Post #488 (isolation #32) » Tue Nov 30, 2021 10:28 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 440, Pavowski wrote:I would also go as far as to say that if we should flip GL, and he turns town, that would be scum indicative on Bingle given the recent shade. But I also kinda don't think GL is likely to get flipped. A NK'd GL would be another story.
maybe I'm missing the obvious, but I really don't see this original post as signaling. It was Salsa's repeated questioning on why Pav said this that prompted all further NK analysis and discussion. All I see in this post is just a caveat that if I (GL) were to die at night, Pav's logic wouldn't apply. Possibly some of the confusion is over Pav using the word "flip" to mean "eliminate via town vote majority"
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Post Post #490 (isolation #33) » Tue Nov 30, 2021 10:28 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 471, Auro wrote:And the redundancy of Pavlov's statements formed a major part of my *gotcha* which holds even discounting my misread.
I think I'm not really understanding what the "redundancy" is or the "gotcha"
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Post Post #504 (isolation #34) » Tue Nov 30, 2021 5:14 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 503, Auro wrote:@GL: This is the redundancy I was referring to. Like why bring up the GL NK?
I'm a little concerned you didn't see this.
He brought it up the second time because Salsa asked him why he brought it up and he was trying to clarify his original post. How is that "redundant" when he was literally asked to explain??

I'm VERY concerned you don't see that
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Post Post #510 (isolation #35) » Tue Nov 30, 2021 5:52 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 506, LicketyQuickety wrote:GL, what is your read on Salsa atp?
I think Salsas been real scummy and I have no issues with the wagon. I mainly haven't moved my vote because I didn't want to defuse my pressure on Roden, but seems like I scared him away from the game lol

I don't think I've been too forgiving? Who have I mistakenly forgiven in your eyes?
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Post Post #511 (isolation #36) » Tue Nov 30, 2021 5:53 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 508, Bingle wrote:I really dislike GLs auro takes, btw. It reads like gl is calling auro scummy for being paranoid,
Uhhhh... I don't see how you get that from any of my Auro takes. I didn't like his attempt to gotcha Pav over easily understandable posts. None of what I've had to say has had anything to do with paranoia
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Post Post #512 (isolation #37) » Tue Nov 30, 2021 5:55 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 506, LicketyQuickety wrote:Are you ever aggressive in games? And if not, why are you not SRing the person who said this?
Oh and on this - I can be aggressive, but not always, it depends on how strongly I feel about the read. I don't scumread Bingle for scumreading me because last time we were both town he scumread me for similar reasons and I can understand why he thinks I've been a lil lamisty, I get that a lot
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Post Post #514 (isolation #38) » Tue Nov 30, 2021 6:01 pm

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In post 513, LicketyQuickety wrote:P-Edit. Okay, so then my question still stands in why you are just acting flowery with your SRs. Does not make sense. Are these just tentative SRs or what?
I don't think I've been especially flowery? Like where do you see me doing that, specifically? I went in hard on Roden, he bailed, and Salsa has had enough attention that I haven't needed to push it myself. I'm satisfied with the gamestate currently, I don't need to do anything at the moment other than poke at peripheral slots like Auro
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Post Post #516 (isolation #39) » Tue Nov 30, 2021 6:14 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

I disagree with your assessment of both those posts, but I appreciate you referencing them. The first one in particular is definitely not a pass, I'm explicitly challenging him to explain why he thinks my play comes from me as scum
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Post Post #518 (isolation #40) » Tue Nov 30, 2021 6:33 pm

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I dunno what there is to explain, and I feel like you're just pushing on me because you're bored of the main suspects or trying to make sure you have a good grip on the gamestate or something. I disagree with you that I've been flowery or tentative with my SRs, but I don't really want to fight with you about it
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Post Post #519 (isolation #41) » Tue Nov 30, 2021 6:35 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

My SRs are Roden, Salsa, Auro, and I haven't really explained myself to them at all? I don't scumread Bingle, I try to explain myself to him when I think it might make him reevaluate but overall I don't know where you even see me "explaining myself" to SRs
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Post Post #521 (isolation #42) » Tue Nov 30, 2021 6:49 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

How is it "redundant" to say "if we limmed GL and he flipped town, I'd suspect Bingle, but if GL is NKed I wouldn't necessarily suspect him"
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Post Post #522 (isolation #43) » Tue Nov 30, 2021 6:50 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

EBWOP - Or rather *"hold that against him as well" instead of "suspect"
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Post Post #572 (isolation #44) » Wed Dec 01, 2021 6:51 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 523, Auro wrote:Like talking about the likelihood of you flipping, and then bringing up the case where you're NK'd adds nothing to the thread - the only purpose it could have served was some form of cross-team signalling. And note that I'm not referring to his further explanation of it.

It's obvious things wouldn't necessarily be the same if GL was NK'd, no? How often do we see townposts of the form "hmm, if somehow X slot were to be night killed, hmm hmm hmm, then my opinion could change..." (I know this might be an uncharitable twisting of what he was trying to convey, but this is how it comes off to me as possible signalling).
I don't disagree that bringing up the case where I am NK'd adds nothing to the thread but WIFOM, the thing is that I can entirely imagine a town!Pav posting it for his own completeness sake, and to me that explanation feels far more likely/intuitive than it being some sort of cross-team signal.

You're right it's obvious that things wouldn't be the same if I were NK'd, but a lot of people love to say or post obvious things, I don't see this particular instance as scummy at all or worth pressing on. I feel like I see townposts of that form frequently, especially in the Newbie queue (not calling Pav a newbie, just saying it's really not a rare thing to see someone post).

The last bit about uncharitable twisting - you are right, it is uncharitable twisting! don't uncharitably twist!!! That's one of the main patterns I look for to indicate scum mindset - I'm a little thrown that you're just openly acknowledging it.

I think we agree on:
1. The original NK comment in was a kinda useless WIFOMy thing to post
2. Pav would have left it at that if it weren't for Salsa pressing him to keep explaining the original comment repeatedly

Where we disagree:
3. I don't think scum is more likely to post that type of speculation than town
4. I don't see it as a possible signal, I think that's a big ole reach

I do appreciate you clarifying the dropped "if" as how you misread, that makes your gotcha attempt make more sense to me. I still think it's kinda bad to rush to post a gotcha question instead of like, rereading the post to make sure you understood Pav's post correctly, because if he HAD posted that it'd be pretty transparently bizarre reasoning, but I do understand your misinterpretation better now.
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Post Post #575 (isolation #45) » Wed Dec 01, 2021 7:25 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 531, Auro wrote:@GL: Do you agree with Esther's assessment: that summarizing and interpreting those pages of arguments hurts scum more than any towncred it may offer?
This is actually an interesting question, my mind started racing in a bunch of directions as soon as I started trying to think about how I feel about it, it might be a good general mafia discussion topic tbh but I'll try to keep my thoughts concise and grounded in this particular game

1) In the general sense, I think it's fairly difficult "work" to try to closely read through two players caught in a mudslinging slapfight and tease out what the underlying claims/reasoning are. In a more traditional single Mafia faction vs Town setup, I think town has a lot more incentive to do that work and try to draw Actual Reads out of those pages of arguments because they're the ones with a need to sort alignments of players involved. Scum knowing alignments already don't gain anything personally from that mental load. So from a bird's eye view, I see where mc esther is coming from, scum can usually just not post anything when there's a big fight in the thread and it's rare that they get scumread for it. I definitely see how someone diving in and
trying
to draw a signal from the noise gets townpoints accordingly on that basis.

2) That being said, I would say in this specific set up that the existence of multiple scum factions actually creates a real incentive for scum to also do that work, because scum in this set up should still be trying to figure out who the other scum faction are and eliminate them. So big caveat to point #1 there off the bat

3) Where I disagree slightly is that a scum's ideal gamestate is "low information" and so any generating of "information" inherently hurts scum. I think the ideal scum gamestate is one where scum have enough influence to secure the specific eliminations THEY want without drawing too much suspicion for it. Sitting back and hoping town eats itself alive can sometimes work in the right game/playerlist, but it's playing with fire because it's also fully possible that town will recognize each other and townblock effectively and POE you out rather quickly if you're not contributing. So I think if I were scum, there are a lot of ways where I could use a Roden vs LQ fight to my advantage, the classic one being that I could try to make one side look worse and make myself look good from it at the same time. If I have enough WIM to overcome the "mental load" of point 1, this would be a good play for scum!me. And the sneakiest/best play of all would be to subtly make both sides look bad in everyone else's eyes, so that I could hope town chains two lims that I might want back to back.

4) All that being said, I think it then comes down to looking at the conclusions/posts that I specifically made, and looking for any agenda or ~ uncharitable twisting ~, as it were. Was I fair in my assessment of LQ and Roden's posts? Did I try to leverage something NAI to give myself a reason to scumread one of the players involved? Is my summary more or less likely to lead to LQ/Roden being limmed, and if
more likely
, are my suspicions valid? If mc esther thinks I was fair, and not trying to embellish or throw dirt on a clean slot, then it makes point #1 stronger town!evidence than it would be if I came out of my summary championing a lim for dubious reasoning. There's also flip side questions of - were my posts actually meaningful? Is it solely a lot of summary without any indication of actual attempts to sort either player?

I can't really answer the questions in #4, that's for everyone else to discuss. Personally I was hoping teasing out the poor/obfuscated reasoning surrounding the "did Roden invite a wagon on himself" and "if so, why would scum!Roden invite a wagon on himself" would lead to Roden specifically explaining why he said he was obvious town or why he thinks he doesn't get wagoned as scum.

I did walk away from that with a feeling that LQ was being sincere in what he was posting, though I've also since noted () that this being multiball makes it hard to fully townread LQ for it, as scum!LQ might genuinely believe that Roden is also scum of a different flavor.
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Post Post #576 (isolation #46) » Wed Dec 01, 2021 7:26 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

epic wallpost pagetop
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Post Post #577 (isolation #47) » Wed Dec 01, 2021 7:38 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 573, Galron wrote:I don't think in this instance that it's an uncharitable reading of what Pav said. We're in multi-ball, and it seems to me to be good play to coordinate night kills if possible. If you look at , the second and third sentences are unnecessary to the point the Pav was making, and the more I look at them the more I think, why did he even go there?
In post 440, Pavowski wrote:I would also go as far as to say that if we should flip GL, and he turns town, that would be scum indicative on Bingle given the recent shade. But I also kinda don't think GL is likely to get flipped. A NK'd GL would be another story.
it's probably beating a dead horse at this point, but it seems pretty easy to me to understand why he went there?

1. "If I knew GL was town, I'd think this Bingle suspicion of him looks bad"
2. "The only way we can know GL is town is if we lim him or if he's NK'd"
3. "I don't want to lim GL"
4. "Oh, but if GL is NK'd, that probably wouldn't be additional evidence for scum!Bingle"

Like, that flow of reasoning just feels extremely straightforward to me. I agree that it's not like, the deepest or most insightful or most important train of thought, but it's a train with a well illuminated and clear railroad.

When I ask myself how that post amounts to signaling, why scum!Pav would signal at all to begin with, and then why scum!Pav would signal about killing GL, for me it's a lot less clear.
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Post Post #579 (isolation #48) » Wed Dec 01, 2021 7:40 am

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thinking that it's signaling feels to me like assuming Pav's alignment/motivations first and analyzing his post second. Like if I start from Pav being scum, could that be a signal? Maybe. Do I look at his post and think it's such clear signaling that it makes Pav more likely to be scum? No.
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Post Post #581 (isolation #49) » Wed Dec 01, 2021 7:52 am

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yeh, fair enough. I think I've said as much as I can or want to about the whole thing
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Post Post #582 (isolation #50) » Wed Dec 01, 2021 8:05 am

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In post 546, mc esther wrote:when you talk about salsa's developing reads, im assuming youre largely talking about her lickety read. ill think on it, but it's not that convincing to me right this moment; and im really not sure it can outweigh the way she responded to me and t3 pressuring her, or her weird relationship to the roden wagon.
I did want to touch on this / DArby's Salsa townread in general, to add that I'm also not convinced. I think I can feel where DArby's coming from in that Salsa's read/reaction to LQ feels genuine, and certainly that feeling is amplified when DArby is also suspicious of LQ, but again I'd like to point out that this is multi ball and so Salsa might
genuinely
think the likes of T3 or LQ are scum opportunistically hopping on her wagon while still being scum herself.

The thing for me that's missing with Salsa is I feel her questioning has been mostly meant to make people look bad rather than help her sort their alignment, and I have vibes of survivalism from how she hopped onto Roden in or making posts like and . She's not appealing to A50 at all to sell him on her reads when he's literally conftown voting her. and is just a bad post in general - so she thinks there could be all 4 scum in {T3, mc esther, Pavowski, Bingle, Galron}? Why is she still voting LQ then? Who of those 5 does she think is town? I can't see a genuine town thought process behind posts like that.
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Post Post #584 (isolation #51) » Wed Dec 01, 2021 8:28 am

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In post 583, Auro wrote:It feels perfectly reasonable to accuse an unannounced E-1 vote as scummy when you're potentially about to be hammered though?
Salsa's last posts felt the opposite of survivalistic. Wouldn't appealing to A50, or trying to aggressively shift a wagon onto one of her voters be survivalistic? Should town be survivalistic or not?
Do you think Salsa actually believes Galron is scum? She hasn't substantively mentioned him at all before or since and I don't get that vibe from her post. Feels more like either a joke or some kind of bizarre last minute effort to make Galron look bad, and neither is a good look in my book

Shotgun accusing everyone voting you of being scum without naming specific players is definitely survivalistic, it's trying to make everyone in thread feel wrong for voting you without actually giving any real reads in the game. Could even be a specific attempt to antispew, if I'm putting my tinfoil hat on.

What I mean by "appealing to A50" is this. Let's say Salsa is town. What I would expect town to be doing is trying to understand why A50 is voting her, and also trying to sell their main scumreads in the thread so that even if they are limmed, they leave behind a legacy of where they stood for players to follow. Notably A50 especially as he has a public cop check. Instead, she's not trying to shape the game in any direction. What is her motive for posting then?

I think town should try not to get limmed, but even more than that they should be trying to push for the elimination of who they think is scum. Latter most important, even if it requires being limmed yourself to hope to achieve on later days. When I say someone is being "survivalistic", what I mean to communicate is it seems they care more about surviving than actually pushing their own particular reads. That's scum-mindset, not town. Simply wanting to live at all is NAI, but there should be a component of advocating for your own reads at the same time as well. Otherwise what are you doing here
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Post Post #606 (isolation #52) » Thu Dec 02, 2021 5:20 am

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In post 601, Roden wrote:VOTE: Salsa

That's E-1 btw, not hammer.
No thoughts on literally anything else?
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Post Post #608 (isolation #53) » Thu Dec 02, 2021 5:39 am

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:/ I don't like hammering there before Bingle gets to say his stuff
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Post Post #625 (isolation #54) » Thu Dec 02, 2021 6:27 am

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In post 612, Bingle wrote:GL is pushing the idea that auro being aggressive and assuming that someone is scum until proven otherwise is scummy, when I think that's actually just a good way to make the pressure worth something.
I think maybe this is why we haven't seen eye to eye on stuff. I think you can be firm with pressure without making assumptions that someone is scum. I try (though don't always succeed) to maintain the mindset that most players are likely town until there's good evidence otherwise, just based on probability/Bayesian reasoning
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Post Post #629 (isolation #55) » Thu Dec 02, 2021 6:31 am

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In post 627, Bingle wrote:GL, can I get a tl;dr with only conclusions you've drawn from your analysis at your earliest convenience if you live through the night?
yeah, definitely. I think probably my activity doesn't feel up to standard because my main suspect flaked out of the game and I was also fine with the counterwagon (in part due to multi ball). if I'm alive the picture will definitely be shaken up on D2 so I'll prob have more to ~ do ~
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Post Post #707 (isolation #56) » Sun Dec 05, 2021 8:16 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 638, Pavowski wrote:So either everyone targeted A50 or only Team Fire did
and somebody else got doc's and frozen
, right?

Seems more likely monkey got tripled up
In post 649, Not_Mafia wrote:
In post 647, Bingle wrote:I don't think this can have a drawback for asking publicly given how obvious a question it is, so:

@mod: Are death flavors indicative of who made the kill? If they are, what are the specific flavors for a Fire Kill, an Ice Kill, a Doc Kill, and an all three kill?


NM should be able (have to actually) answer that because this is an open.
Yes death flavours are indicative. Ice Mafia is
Frozen
, Fire Mafia is
Incinerated
and a CPR Doc kill is
Shocked
. If all three were to target a player, the fire and ice mafia kills would cancel out and the CPR Doc would kill the player. I will add this to the rules section.

Pav - how did you know the Ice Team's flavor was "frozen" specifically? I don't recall seeing that anywhere prior to N_M editing the posts.
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Post Post #708 (isolation #57) » Sun Dec 05, 2021 8:21 am

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In post 654, Bingle wrote:Not particularly interested in GL/Auro atm.
Bingle, why are you less suspicious of me here than you were yesterday?

I'll post a full reads update for ya in a sec - I'm feeling a little scatterbrained right now since I need a full reset in light of Salsa/Roden town. I'm definitely thinking my reasons for townreading Pav might have been Bad.
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Post Post #709 (isolation #58) » Sun Dec 05, 2021 8:23 am

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In post 659, Roden wrote:Btw GL, now you know my RVS vote really was just RVS. It really shouldn't have taken a Cop check to figure that out, here we are I guess.
Dude, my problems were always far more with your than your . A RVS tell isn't going to work a lot of the time, but I thought I made it clear what I really disliked was how you tried to dismiss me without actually engaging with me. And I think the Cop check was probably more because you went MIA for most of the day rather than me pressuring you at the beginning.
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Post Post #711 (isolation #59) » Sun Dec 05, 2021 8:28 am

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In post 674, mc esther wrote:i think basically everyone's established this, but to be explicit so that nobody suggests anything daft later (and also to get auro's thoughts): pavowski's town. there was literally no reason for him to signal for a kill on guiltylion, guiltylion was townreading him all day; and the observation that scum would be too paranoid to make that sort of comment if not as an intentional signal rings pretty true. while start-of-day speculation on the night targets was a pretty bad idea, i think it makes a lot more sense from "townie with weird hang-ups about night" than "scum who went straight for the same speculation that had him under suspicion day one".
I don't think I agree with this anymore. I didn't like people suggesting Pav's D1 posting was an attempt to signal, I thought it clearly wasn't, but I do think his opening D2 post is really bad, I'm wondering if he straight up scum slipped by revealing knowledge of the "frozen" flavoring for Ice Team kill. I don't think the suspicion on Pav D1 was potent enough to make him feel threatened (he didn't pick up a lot of votes/wagon pressure), and if his scum!persona is to act oblivious/dump-thoughts-in-thread then his D2 play is entirely consistent with that.

I'm not sure he's who I'd most want limmed today but I absolutely feel worse about him now than I did yesterday
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Post Post #712 (isolation #60) » Sun Dec 05, 2021 8:34 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 687, Auro wrote:LQ's reads list this page is surprisingly shallow.
In post 694, DArby wrote:Ig just meta feels more sound with T3 than Enchant.

T3 is complaining about the same things he typically does but Enchant feels slightly different. It feels like Enchant is more try-hard in a more forceful way.

Tho take my meta reads with a grain of salt.
+1 to both these points. I don't like that LQ readslist (his reason for scumreading Galron over everyone else in his null pile feels a bit inscrutable to me, especially since T3/Enchant are the ones picking up votes), and I agree with DArby that I prefer Enchant over T3 here. I've recently played with both Enchant/T3 as scum in White Flag #834 and Situation Room respectively, and from a vibe check perspective Enchant feels more scummy to me than T3. That's just initial gut feel though, I'll try to elaborate more in my readslist in a sec
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Post Post #713 (isolation #61) » Sun Dec 05, 2021 8:36 am

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In post 697, LicketyQuickety wrote:Also that you started off serious then went to joking. That felt unnatural to me.
Why does that feel scummy to you? My impression is usually the opposite, that scum feel more comfortable joking earlygame and don't want to come across too tryhard at gamestart. I certainly pick up suspicion for being Too Serious in earlygame across a lot of my games. Also, where specifically do you think Galron is joking in an unnatural way?
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Post Post #714 (isolation #62) » Sun Dec 05, 2021 8:51 am

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In post 627, Bingle wrote:GL, can I get a tl;dr with only conclusions you've drawn from your analysis at your earliest convenience if you live through the night?
ah I'm rereading a few things and realizing I might have misunderstood this - did you want a tl;dr on specifically? In my head I thought you were asking for a general readslist here. regardless, readslist coming in a sec, and maybe I'll try to touch on this there. it won't be in tl;dr form though
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Post Post #715 (isolation #63) » Sun Dec 05, 2021 9:14 am

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blah my parents are in town and just got to my place mid-typing-up-enormous-reads-post, so it'll have to wait. I've saved it as a draft but now can't seem to find it - does anybody know where posts that are saved as draft go?
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Post Post #716 (isolation #64) » Sun Dec 05, 2021 9:15 am

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ah nvm found it we all good. I'll be back with big reads post later today
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Post Post #725 (isolation #65) » Sun Dec 05, 2021 11:18 am

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Pav, I'm asking how you knew the Ice Team kill flavor is "frozen", specifically. Not talking about how we knew it was the Fire team that did it.
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Post Post #731 (isolation #66) » Sun Dec 05, 2021 11:27 am

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In post 726, Pavowski wrote:Does that strike you as a crazy leap in logic?

If the fire team kill was "incinerated", what would you expect the ice team kill to read as?

Mildly refrigerated?
idk, I would think the easy fire kill flavor would be "burned", I agree "frozen" is probably the most basic choice but there's synonyms, could have been "chilled", "iced", "glacierized", who knows. I just feel it's odd you used a specific word that I hadn't seen used anywhere in the set up description or flavor
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Post Post #811 (isolation #67) » Sun Dec 05, 2021 9:33 pm

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GL 12 am edit - so I wrote half of this post (Roden->Auro) earlier today and saved it as a draft. the rest on mc Esther -> LQ I'm gonna try to revisit and write tomorrow, I had dreams of finishing it today but I'm too tired and that's not a realistic plan nor would my thinking likely be clear enough at this point. also some interesting stuff has happened since I first wrote this! Stuff which I wanna think about in detail and incorporate into my view of the gamestate. So here's a half finished reads post to try to honor the commitment I wanted to set out, and another one that I'll be around more tomorrow.

alright, here's the bird's eye view of my reads at this moment, pending probably some D1 rereading, ordering in the brackets does not matter:

Conf town: {Roden}
Feel-good-about-townreads: {DArby, Bingle}
Feel-iffy-about-townreads, likely one or two deeper scum: {Galron, T3, Auro, mc esther}
Current desired limpool: {Enchant, Pav, LQ}

DArby
, I think is the most agendaless and pure player. I fully agree with Bingle's logic about needlessly jumping into a third wagon when Roden/Salsa were both dueling wagons. I think it's townie that he hot taked a Salsa townread right before EOD1 (), there's simply no benefit to scum doing that in multiball when scum would be uninformed about Salsa's alignment while fine with her lim, and it's a take that only serves to push discussion and put the spotlight on himself going against the consensus view. I also just generally agree with or at least understand his perspective whenever he's given it, I think his D1 LQ suspicion/paranoia is believable and I've come around to feeling the same way, I like how he's forming townreads and using them to try to either challenge certain players or form a useful townbloc, and I haven't seen any disingenuinity in anything he's posted. My strongest TR.

Bingle
, I've seen a few things from him I like a lot for town. The way he made sure to rush out thoughts in twilight I generally think is a good look. I'm fully with him on townclearing DArby D2. Whenever he's scumread/suspected someone, but especially me, I feel he's treating the slot fairly and with intent to deepen understanding rather than just push for the sake of push - his paranoia/suspicion around me vibes heavily similar to me as D1 Situation Room when we were both town and he felt I wasn't living up to my normal levels of effort. I don't fully agree with his T3 vote/wagon but I can definitely empathize with why he wants attention there. Posts like (I wasn't going to bring this up until another game ended), (Enchant can get wagoned without me, I want to see who votes where), are the kind of nuanced one-level-deeper opinions delivered in honest fashion that tend to be much harder to fake as scum.

Galron
, vibewise he just feels holistically townie to me. He's been very consistent in how he jumps in with particular questions ( and , and , , and ) that feel to me like they indicate real solving intent and an evaluating mind behind his posts, rather than one playing with an agenda. The only reason he's not in the top tier is he's been keeping his overall reads/votes close to the chest, but I imagine that could be more a play style thing than an alignment thing, I haven't gotten any sense that he's leveraged that lack of transparency to make any too-convenient votes or reads yet.

T3
- I don't have a great sense of how to read T3, he plays in a very fast and loose style that sometimes feels like it's overtly scummy for being too unthinking, but I've gotten the sense a few times that he really has no agenda here. I feel scum would be too self conscious to post things like and . The fact that he gave a meta read on Enchant in but then went back and found evidence against it in I waffle a lot on - generally I think town should be like... thinking
through
the read BEFORE posting it, but here I kinda feel why would scum!T3 bother to look at the ISOs at all? Like does scum!T3 really gain anything from preemptively correcting himself on his own read? Doesn't feel like he's pushing it with any agenda, in any case. I think and also just feel too honest to be scummy - again there's no real self consciousness behind his posts and I remember scum!T3 in Situation Room feeling a bit more cautious and self-aware. Also played with more purpose in that game. He could still be scum, but I just have a few things that don't add up to it for me.

Auro
- Auro and I clashed a fair amount in the last game I remember being T-T together (NSG's neighborhood game) and I am getting the sense again that he's dedicating similar energy to poking/sorting me in a similar fashion, always jumping in to quibble with small bits of statements I make. Other than the one signaling line of discussion towards Pav that I called out yesterday, I haven't felt any strong disagreement/dislike or agenda to any of his questioning posts. However I am a little worried he does seem a bit more detached with it, like when I try to think about who Auro townreads/scumreads and why, I don't have a very strong impression. I can imagine him being town, but it's not especially hard for me to imagine him being scum.

--------

as I said at the top, rest to come later. I'd probably be down to help move the LQ wagon along through, or to lim Enchant, but pending a good night's rest and me writing out things I don't like about those bottom three slots. Though I'm reluctantly considering re-evaluating on Pav again since I
guess
it's not that weird to use the most common ice verb, mostly because no one else seemed surprised by that
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Post Post #812 (isolation #68) » Sun Dec 05, 2021 9:40 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

I dunno I don't feel especially satisfied with anything yet this game. I'm 0/2 on early scumreads in a game with 4 scum, and the PL is either tryhards who have scumgames I respect (Bingle, Auro) or jokesters that I'm not especially familiar with enough yet to read well (Pav, T3, Enchant), and The Mysterious Clearly Experienced Alt in mc esther, so I don't have a super solid axiomatic towncore or scumread to use as a foothold to build the rest of my reads around. I think maybe town!DArby/Bingle and scum!LQ feels like a decent foundation to sort everyone else, but I'm not like 100% sold myself yet on scum!LQ, it just feels pretty likely given how many scum are in this game and my hope that I have at least a couple townreads right
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Post Post #831 (isolation #69) » Mon Dec 06, 2021 6:10 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

aight, I'm back to finish this up

I was just rereading
mc esther
in ISO and I've decided I like her a lot more as a townread than I was feeling yesterday - the main impression that I was worried about with her was that I can't shake the feeling that she's playing things a bit safe, always posting Reasonable Theory Analysis Takes but not putting herself out there to push reads too aggressively. However, rereading things today with fresh eyes, I see a lot of indicators I usually like for town - a couple major seemingly organic reads reversals from beginning of game to present moment (Pav going from scumread to D2 locktown, Enchant devolving from D1 townread to a D2 vote), similar to my Bingle townread strikes me as a thought process that's unlikely to be faked by scum - lamenting a botched opportunity to pressure Pav in a more direct manner, the low-key T3 townread on D1 I don't see benefitting a scum agenda when T3 is an easy slot to fake a scumread on. I also think the pillars of her scumread on Lickety (Lickety's flip flopping uncertainty on his Roden SR, especially with Lickety being mistaken about the timing of when Roden disappeared and when LQ's scumread was 'reinforced') are genuine. I was feeling paranoid here earlier this day phase but I'm thinking now any paranoia is better directe4d elsewhere.

on
Pav
- I'm having a hard time knowing how to feel about his laid back tonal style. I think if I'm being honest I probably I just tend to reflexively scumread it because I always worry about scum using charisma / "I'm just having fun here man" vibes to get away with not really putting themselves out there. same reason I always scumread Aristophanes if any of y'all have played with him before, and The Dude avatar probably doesn't help :D. Actually re-ISOing Pav again now, I'm back to thinking in terms of his actual content, he feels pretty townie. I like a lot, it gets to the point what was questionable about what LQ posted but without stirring up any additional drama to push LQ. I think with some time to reflect on it that the fact that he completely missed what I was accusing him of slipping in his is pure, as if he
had
slipped any knowledge he'd surely understand what I was talking about the first time. his and are good posts.

so that brings me to the two people I'd be willing to vote right now:

LicketyQuickety
- I think my biggest issue with Lickety is that at times it feels like he's going through the effort of
telling
the thread how he is thinking, instead of just actually
thinking
. ("I feel you are being manipulative, but if you explain I will move on"), (the unprompted addition of "I'm not scumreading Auro because I expect him to do this as scum"), (why is he saying both that T3's read is weird but also that he agrees with it??), I hadn't noticed this previously but using "until" in that post when presumably he meant "unless" is an odd mistake, feels super stiff and as Pav called out is really dubious because he's basically inviting Roden to be townread if Roden backs off his LQ push. That mindset feels a lot more likely to come from someone who wants to defuse the fight rather than someone who actually thinks Roden might be scum.

is a tremendously uninspiring readslist. While I know town!LQ often has weird takes, I don't remember ever seeing him post something so surface level. And the way he specifically picks only Galron to scumread feels non-confrontational towards his other nulls and very forced. and are weirdly timid in terms of being willing to vote T3, and is super WIFOMy - he's trying to imply mc esther is ignoring the Obvious Town Reasoning behind "what he's doing", but he's not actually explaining why he's doing what he's doing. Like there's no effort to sell mc esther on his Bingle suspicions here, just defensiveness. Same issue with his - says Roden's suspicion on him is for NAI reasons, but doesn't have any apparent drive to explain why those reasons are applying to his town game here.

and saying he'll step up his effort over night but he's not going to bother to do it now if he's going to get limmed is a scummy move, as if we're being unfair expecting him to "put in work", and purposefully dangling a carrot of Actual LQ Effort to bargain us to lim somewhere else. It's also odd that despite that he then also promises to do something tomorrow in the very next sentence.

as for
Enchant
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Post Post #832 (isolation #70) » Mon Dec 06, 2021 6:23 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

VOTE: Enchant

all that being said, I want to feel decent about LQ/Enchant scumreads to go with my Bingle/DArby/now-mc Esther townreads, but I really don't like the fact that every significant scumread I've felt has coincided with wagons on those players -without- me doing a ton to push them, I worry that I am being snowed by a deep scum. Right now I want to run through Enchant/LQ flips and reassess the {Galron, T3, Pav, Auro} pool afterwards, but I'm feeling iffy about all 4 scum being in those 6 names.

On Enchant-LQ together, I sanity checked associatives between the two but don't see anything that makes me think they can't be aligned together.

Also, coming back to for Bingle - I think my main tl;dr takeaways is that I don't see anything inherently wrong with mc esther townreading me for trying to effort with respect to LQ/Roden fight, and if I'm being a little tinfoily I could see Auro's question as a bit of potential shit-stirring, though it's not egregious. I was hoping Auro might follow up on that post to say if he himself thinks mc esther's townread on me was shallow, but didn't get anything on that front
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Post Post #833 (isolation #71) » Mon Dec 06, 2021 6:24 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

anyway sorry for all the ~words~, I'm rambling a lot this game to compensate for a lot of uncertainty and lack of confidence. multi-ball is hard yo I forgot how much having two scum factions changes the dynamic
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Post Post #868 (isolation #72) » Tue Dec 07, 2021 4:38 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 846, Roden wrote:I don't disagree. Pav's reaction felt off to me but I haven't seen anyone else comment on that specifically yet. I don't want to give my opinion on it until others do though so I don't influence anyone.
what do you make of my thinking that Pav genuinely didn't understand what I was accusing him of at first? It's buried in my Pav paragraph in
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Post Post #869 (isolation #73) » Tue Dec 07, 2021 4:40 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 841, Auro wrote:@GL: Not sure why stirring the pot is a bad thing; often, provocation can result in more interesting, readable states.
it's not always a bad thing! That's why I said I had to put my tinfoil hat on to make that take

can I get from you 4 or 5 scumreads? I get that you said you're not too pressed about nailing scum here, but I don't feel I have a great understanding of who your suspects are
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Post Post #870 (isolation #74) » Tue Dec 07, 2021 4:44 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

UNVOTE:

I really kinda hate it when PRs don't do shit, even sometimes intentionally 'playing scummy' because it just leads to these situations where they get wagoned and outed

I'm going to vote Lickety but I haven't checked how many votes he has yet and I also don't want to end things until Roden gets a chance to say anything else he has left to say
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Post Post #871 (isolation #75) » Tue Dec 07, 2021 4:53 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 823, Not_Mafia wrote:LicketyQuickety (3)- Roden, Enchant, Auro
, mc esther, Pavowski
I added the yellow votes, I believe LQ is at L-1 right now. I am giving intent to hammer but happy to wait for people to get in some more thoughts, no rush here.
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Post Post #872 (isolation #76) » Tue Dec 07, 2021 4:54 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

EBWOP - not that it really matters IMO, but to be clear Pav/mc Esther should be flipped in my post above. So mc esther gave the L-1 vote, not Pav
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Post Post #875 (isolation #77) » Tue Dec 07, 2021 5:02 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

ah that's right, whoops. I need coffee, I didn't think to check who made those current votes despite knowing Roden doesn't SR LQ anymore
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Post Post #876 (isolation #78) » Tue Dec 07, 2021 5:02 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 874, T3 wrote:I think the reasons for wagoning him are dumb
What do you think the reasons for wagoning him are?
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Post Post #879 (isolation #79) » Tue Dec 07, 2021 5:37 am

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In post 877, T3 wrote:He’s trying to pick fights and has weird reasoning.
Those aren't my reasons for voting Lickety. I think the level of depth to his reads has been shallow, his actual engagement within those fights is more grounded in trying to appear town along with WIFOMy self-defense rather than actual genuine pressure/scumreads, and also I really dislike his attempt to excuse low effort today due to being in the limpool
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Post Post #896 (isolation #80) » Tue Dec 07, 2021 7:28 am

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Galron, what do you think of my points on Lickety? It's more than just the JAQing
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Post Post #916 (isolation #81) » Wed Dec 08, 2021 6:46 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 899, Galron wrote:(Please don't think I'm calling you a moderately skilled player because from what I've seen from you I think you're one of the top players on the site -- I would put you in the highly skilled category.)
In post 910, Pavowski wrote:GL, though... That dude scares me. I've only encountered him as town so far (in an ongoing game we won't speak of) but everything about his posts (here and there) tells me he could play a mean scum game. I could easily see him pouncing on my 'slip' as a way to test out a push on me.
y'all gotta stop, you're making me blush :D

not really game related, but my scumgame is fundamentally flawed in that I don't enjoy playing scum the way I enjoy playing town, and I feel like it shows the longer a game goes on. I kinda see it more as a duty to scumbuds and to everyone else having a workable game of mafia more than I do something that feels good. if any of you all know how to actually have a good time playing scum please teach me postgame haha
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Post Post #917 (isolation #82) » Wed Dec 08, 2021 6:53 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 906, Roden wrote:Could everyone give their reads on Bingle, Pav, and GL? With Enchant claiming Doc, the PoE continues to shrink and I think at least one of these three have to be scum.
I definitely relate to the PoE shrinking feeling, but I think we should probably wait for a real confirmation of Enchant's claim before limming somebody we're otherwise townreading. The circumstances under which he made it are still fairly suspicious. I think if somebody's in my blind spot it would be T3. I'm still fairly sure on Bingle town by play, and I think other than my kneejerk dislike of Pav's D2 opening he doesn't strike me as agenda-driven. Where did you see him unfairly fanning the flames on the Salsa wagon?

I do think his refrigerated joke was meant to defuse my push on him and I can see what you mean by him being a bit measured tonally, but I feel like he might behave that way as either alignment. He doesn't strike me as defensive or a hothead who picks fights, so I don't think I'd expect that from him as town. And I still think the better piece of AI info was that he actually didn't understand my specific accusation when he posted , when I thought about it more I feel like if he
had
inside knowledge of Ice Team flavor he would have immediately realized how he fucked up, especially because Bingle had already asked the mod for public confirmation of kill flavor.
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Post Post #918 (isolation #83) » Wed Dec 08, 2021 6:54 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 869, GuiltyLion wrote:
In post 841, Auro wrote:@GL: Not sure why stirring the pot is a bad thing; often, provocation can result in more interesting, readable states.
it's not always a bad thing! That's why I said I had to put my tinfoil hat on to make that take

can I get from you 4 or 5 scumreads? I get that you said you're not too pressed about nailing scum here, but I don't feel I have a great understanding of who your suspects are
@Auro can you respond to this
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Post Post #919 (isolation #84) » Wed Dec 08, 2021 7:00 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

VOTE: LicketyQuickety

I think this is putting him at L-1 again? I'm fairly confident here at this point, especially if Enchant's doc claim is legit, I don't see myself being talked into another lim today
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Post Post #922 (isolation #85) » Wed Dec 08, 2021 7:54 am

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In post 921, Galron wrote:Is it appropriate to ask someone to respond to a question and then put someone else in quickhammer territory?
I did think about a possible LQ self-hammer, but IMO Auro already had time to respond the first time and nothing is stopping him from giving me an answer to that question tomorrow with more information if there is an unexpected day end.

My main intent is to better sort Auro, so if he dies it won't matter that he didn't answer anyway, other than the instance where he's town and has reads that he desperately wants us to follow up on in his absence. Which is not the sense I have gotten from his play this game.
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Post Post #928 (isolation #86) » Wed Dec 08, 2021 1:25 pm

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I'd like to see T3's response to LQ's thoughts on his ISO
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Post Post #939 (isolation #87) » Wed Dec 08, 2021 5:00 pm

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In post 938, Auro wrote:@gl missed responding to your question, wasn't it readable that I was scumreading Enchant and LQ at that point? I still don't get strong town vibes off you
I dunno, I mean yes you have
said
that you scumread those two, but it's been a passive attitude in the thread, has it not? Like you had LQ as town on D1 and then seemingly reversed just because of and your theory that he was playing to avoid being NK'd. How did the rest of your reads change, if at all? What about Enchant's play reads as open-wolfy to you? These questions are more rhetorical than ones I actually need an answer to, the impression is just that you're kinda coasting, like normally when someone is engaged and putting forth a lot of content I feel I have a mental idea of where all their reads stand in relation with each other, but with you that picture is murky for me.

What do you think is missing from my play here that is leading you to not feel strong town vibes? That one I do want you to answer
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Post Post #1092 (isolation #88) » Wed Dec 22, 2021 10:46 am

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LMAO
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Post Post #1093 (isolation #89) » Wed Dec 22, 2021 10:48 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

great game everyone, was a fun one. Thanks N_M for modding, I love this set up for a more casual/meme WIFOM type of game

maybe it's in the ice PT and I also didn't pay a lot of attention the last day phase or so, but @mc esther what was the reasoning for not killing at all?
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Post Post #1094 (isolation #90) » Wed Dec 22, 2021 10:49 am

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In post 1090, Not_Mafia wrote:Thoughts on the set-up? There a lot of little things that could be handled in different ways in this set-up so looking for people's thoughts
Any thoughts on taking out the kill flavors? I'm not sure which I prefer, but I do feel it gives a lot of information and the game might be more difficult/interesting without it
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