Mini Normal 2245: LJITGBSMoD [game over!]

[osuka]

what's up nerds

contrary to popular belief, i actually cannot read so i would appreciate it if someone could give me a run-down of what's happened so far

[osuka]

quick maths: if we execute town here, then with 1 mafia and with me babysitter, and also assuming a random scum target, town definitely wins if scum kills me if i've protected them. town maybe wins (gets an extra day) if i protect a target successfully - that either means scum didn't kill, or that means ive protected town (but we'll never know that until endgame). scum definitely wins if i don't protect, or if they kill me and i've protected town.

this, i think, means i should definitely protect tonight. assuming equal probability of scum choosing one of { me, other town, no kill }, and equal probability of me choosing { town, scum }:
town wins when:
- (me, scum)
scum wins when:
- (me, town)

town maybe wins when:
- (other town, town)
- (other town, scum)
- (no kill, town)
- (no kill, scum)

that gives p=1/6 of town losing, p=1/6 of town winning, and p=2/3 of another day. this is unbiased because i couldn't possibly know ahead of time what scum is gonna do, and armed with this knowledge, scum couldn't possibly know ahead of time what i'll do. because neither decision (mine or the last mafia's) influences the outcome in a way that increases either alignment's probability of a win, we can actually just assume that both decisions are essentially random. this also means that 2/3 of the time, we'll get an extra day in this game.

which means that if we execute town here, we're essentially even. even though normally 1 mafia 3 town means mylo, we're actually in a weird spot where the babysitter makes that sort of not apply here.

[osuka]

someone please sanity check what i just wrote. i wrote these thoughts for myself but i wanna know if they make sense (i'm quite tired at the moment)

this also means that we NEED to execute today, because if we don't execute then i should not defend anyone; in that case, where the first item is the kill target and the second target is the protect target, scum wins if:
- (me, town1)
- (me, town2)
- (town1, town2)
- (town2, town1)
- (town2, scum)
- (town1, scum)

town wins if:
- (me, scum)

and we get an extra day if:
- (town1, town1)
- (town2, town2)

which means scum wins 2/3 of the time, with p=1/9 of town win and p=2/9 of extra day. that means that we're in the same situation - if we no exec, then i'm the obvious target, and we get an extra day sans me. whether or not that's the optimal play ultimately depends on who we want to be in the next day

[osuka]

If you’re dead set on not elimming as the traditional four rules say please don’t protect anyone. I would rather you just argue for who you think scum is than a hero babysit.

didn't i literally just say that if we no exec, i shouldn't protect? did you not read anything i just wrote?

[osuka]

3)* if we no elim and you protect someone.

It’s much more important to sort people than try to gain a day. There’s four people left and we have to buckle down and decide the elim.

my point is we're likely to gain a day regardless of what happens if we exec today

[osuka]

If we elim and assume that we elim town, that should also be considered an auto loss because then a Townie dies and GG.

I agree that we need to elim today but it’s a foolish thing to think you’re more than an IC at this point Osaka.

did you not read anything i just wrote?

[osuka]

quick maths: if we execute town here, then with 1 mafia and with me babysitter, and also assuming a random scum target, town definitely wins if scum kills me if i've protected them. town maybe wins (gets an extra day) if i protect a target successfully - that either means scum didn't kill, or that means ive protected town (but we'll never know that until endgame). scum definitely wins if i don't protect, or if they kill me and i've protected town.

this, i think, means i should definitely protect tonight. assuming equal probability of scum choosing one of { me, other town, no kill }, and equal probability of me choosing { town, scum }:
town wins when:
- (me, scum)
scum wins when:
- (me, town)

town maybe wins when:
- (other town, town)
- (other town, scum)
- (no kill, town)
- (no kill, scum)

that gives p=1/6 of town losing, p=1/6 of town winning, and p=2/3 of another day. this is unbiased because i couldn't possibly know ahead of time what scum is gonna do, and armed with this knowledge, scum couldn't possibly know ahead of time what i'll do. because neither decision (mine or the last mafia's) influences the outcome in a way that increases either alignment's probability of a win, we can actually just assume that both decisions are essentially random. this also means that 2/3 of the time, we'll get an extra day in this game.

which means that if we execute town here, we're essentially even. even though normally 1 mafia 3 town means mylo, we're actually in a weird spot where the babysitter makes that sort of not apply here.

actually this doesn't make sense but i don't want to elaborate as to why

[osuka]

so since scum wins in (other town, scum), i think i should just protect the other town because there's a higher chance of us going to the next day

whatever

[osuka]

oh look i got a pagetop

[osuka]

and we all know pagetops are for daddy

[osuka]

yeah i dont have much time today because of thanksgiving but ill do some reading on my phone and ill post tomorrow

[osuka]

sorry everybody but for the record i wouldve hammered commander so i think wed still be fucked?

[osuka]

i legitimately thought we had an extra day before deadline and thats 100% my bad, sorry folks

[osuka]

i hope you guys dont hate me