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Post Post #117 (isolation #0) » Mon Nov 08, 2021 6:39 pm

Post by Aaron »

*click clack click clack*
*knock knock*

It's Aaron. Yes hello sir. I will begin presenting promptly. Have a great day.

*door shuts*

I am quite occupied as of today but will be here starting tomorrow. Thank you for your patience.
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Post Post #152 (isolation #1) » Tue Nov 09, 2021 6:27 am

Post by Aaron »

*alarm goes off*
*ahem*
Alright yes it looks like the time is right. Good morning sir. Alright, I'll get started right away.
Slide 1. *click*
It's 1 am and not much is happening. A man named Dwlee has said a joke while a Monkey named Almost50 replies with similar tone yet different meaning. What that means is unclear at the moment.

There are twins Ythan1 and Ythan2 that were spotted shortly after. The one with the heart tattoo is noticeably more suspicious. Reasons are unclear as of right now.

*click*

Flash forward there is [quite some] murderous intent directed at an entity known as Notmafia. Such intent is interesting as I find the entity rather intriguing and do not understand why some are eager to take easy paths out.

Fua orders for everyone to discuss his life decisions. I am inclined to believe firm statements such as that come from allies.

I receive many mixed signals as many things being said are rather suspicious but I was given intel by the HQ that we are catching exactly three traitors. The HQ is never wrong.

*click*

I have reached 3 pm in the security footage and will be taking a short break.
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Post Post #153 (isolation #2) » Tue Nov 09, 2021 6:28 am

Post by Aaron »

*A human
Apologies
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Post Post #154 (isolation #3) » Tue Nov 09, 2021 6:28 am

Post by Aaron »

*their for fua.
it won't happen again for either of these.
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Post Post #155 (isolation #4) » Tue Nov 09, 2021 6:34 am

Post by Aaron »

In post 52, Three wrote:Bad idea. Scum have a Doc, if we call out the target and you would hit scum they just protect them. If you would hit town they can still protect them for the WIFOM. And if you're fake claiming Vig but you're still town, they can Watch your target to see if you actually are Vig.

Just shoot the scummiest slot tonight so scum can't anticipate who to target and just default to protecting themselves.
In post 54, fua wrote:Considering his track record I’m not inclined to believe N_M unless there’s no counterclaim.
Stepping out of character for a brief moment. Scum protecting one of their own just confirms them as scum for the following day. WIFOM plays in but if we use our best judgment, we can assume that unless town JK claims to have JKed the target, it was scum doc. And scum doc don't have reasons to be protecting town.

In the situation that the only kill is the vig kill, we confirm a town through the JK.
In the situation that the only kill is the scum kill, we confirm scum through the vig.

Obviously WIFOM plays in but use your best judgement and it should be fine. If it makes zero sense for someone to be scum, then they aren't and scum are WIFOMing, etc.

Fua, that was a horrible post. No town vig should ever cc here.
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Post Post #174 (isolation #5) » Tue Nov 09, 2021 9:29 am

Post by Aaron »

In post 157, fua wrote:
In post 155, Aaron wrote:
In post 52, Three wrote:Bad idea. Scum have a Doc, if we call out the target and you would hit scum they just protect them. If you would hit town they can still protect them for the WIFOM. And if you're fake claiming Vig but you're still town, they can Watch your target to see if you actually are Vig.

Just shoot the scummiest slot tonight so scum can't anticipate who to target and just default to protecting themselves.
In post 54, fua wrote:Considering his track record I’m not inclined to believe N_M unless there’s no counterclaim.
Stepping out of character for a brief moment. Scum protecting one of their own just confirms them as scum for the following day. WIFOM plays in but if we use our best judgment, we can assume that unless town JK claims to have JKed the target, it was scum doc. And scum doc don't have reasons to be protecting town.

In the situation that the only kill is the vig kill, we confirm a town through the JK.
In the situation that the only kill is the scum kill, we confirm scum through the vig.

Obviously WIFOM plays in but use your best judgement and it should be fine. If it makes zero sense for someone to be scum, then they aren't and scum are WIFOMing, etc.

Fua, that was a horrible post. No town vig should ever cc here.
A cc is 1/3 mafia down before N1 hits, though. If N_M is town he's sentenced himself to death either tonight or within the next couple days anyway, given Mafia knows whether or not he's telling the truth already.
That was a meme claim and scum know that N_M is a good mislim so it doesn't make sense to waste a nightkill there. It is probably worth the risk of leaving him alive from a scum perspective. It's hard to say how scum thinks but his slot doesn't self resolve because of a joke claim. Mafia does not know whether he is telling the truth or not. Town can meme claim too.
In post 158, fua wrote:Scum doc's reason to be protecting town is already right there, though. It puts people in a WIFOM situation where they're at risk of limming a townie that was protected. Mafia doesn't lose their NK by protecting the vig shot anyway, especially if said vig shot is directed during the day.
WIFOM is not worth it if your buddy dies at night. It is objectively better to force town to use an elimination on a scum buddy than have the scum buddy die at night to a vig kill which can be viewed as a free town shot.
In post 159, fua wrote:(Also, vig wouldn't shoot someone who's widely townread to begin with, so your next point is moot regardless.)
You're assuming scum always shoots obvtown which is true only in mountainous setups.
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Post Post #185 (isolation #6) » Tue Nov 09, 2021 11:10 am

Post by Aaron »

*click*

Slide 3. Jacksonvirgo is a pinch suspicious. Why should vig shoot a meme claim? Yes sir. I haven't considered that .. it could be that Not Mafia was fishing for a cc but that is a little ridiculous. Mhm.
Uglyduck mentioned not having vig shoot. I've thought about it and disagree. Mhm. Yeah of course there are some benefits but I think before there are actual risks, there is no reason to hold back.

No elim? Dwlee has a nice frog hat though. Alright thank you sir.

*click*
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Post Post #197 (isolation #7) » Tue Nov 09, 2021 12:27 pm

Post by Aaron »

*ring*

Oh yes sorry I didn't clarify. No no I definitely do not agree with no elim. Yes sir. I'll be back shortly with the next slide ready. See you!

*click*
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Post Post #198 (isolation #8) » Tue Nov 09, 2021 12:32 pm

Post by Aaron »

Slide 4.

I do think AliceK sounds very genuine. Yes I would remove her from the list of suspects for the time being. Correct.
About the rest, it's confusing. Sorry sir. Yes many confusing and mixed signals all over the place. Alright thanks.

*click*
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Post Post #199 (isolation #9) » Tue Nov 09, 2021 12:44 pm

Post by Aaron »

Fastforward slide 6
*click click*

I seem to mostly agree with Andres on things. I disagree on Ugly Duck though the opinion is shaky. fua being a traitor is something I can get behind for sure. contrary to popular opinion, i feel that mozamis is town. if anyone hammers anytime soon, they will get quite a furious Aaron on their hands tomorrow especially if mozamis is in fact an ally.

the end of slide 6 footage makes me question Dwlee. The thought process felts manufactured. It feels a bit like when you have an essay and it's not long enough so you add filler words and transitions. Take from that what you will.

*click*
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Post Post #201 (isolation #10) » Tue Nov 09, 2021 12:49 pm

Post by Aaron »

In post 161, fua wrote:Also also also, your scenario of the JK being able to confirm a town is inherently flawed because it requires the JK to out themselves to confirm an almost certainly less valuable townie, thus meaning that they get NKed and we lose a PR for no reason.
Incorrect. Nearing elo, JK outing confirmed town is a very good thing. I am not saying that JK should out prematurely as that does not benefit town at all. And either way, both will be confirmed town and even a confirmed vt is dangerous to scum. If JK gets a clear early on, the only scenario where they should out it is if the townie gets under pressure. It is also crucial to crumb things like this because the flip will get town digging.

If vig notices that only their shot went through and JK thinks the shot was the vigs, the guilty should be from the JK since no objection means the vig agrees with the conclusion.

Anyways we shouldn't discuss too much setup since it gives room to WIFOM.
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Post Post #204 (isolation #11) » Tue Nov 09, 2021 1:06 pm

Post by Aaron »

In post 173, fua wrote:Anyway, that’s pretty much the answer to my own post about N_M, so I’ll switch.

VOTE: Aaron
This is funny. Fua never had a good reason to vote N_M to begin with (it was RVS) but then starts pretending that he does have a reason (the meme claim) and that it was A50's 3 posts that changed their mind. Let's take a look at this progression here.
In post 14, fua wrote:VOTE: Not_Mafia
RVS vote.
In post 34, fua wrote:VOTE: Uglyduck
Note that this changes to Uglyduck.
In post 54, fua wrote:Considering his track record I’m not inclined to believe N_M unless there’s no counterclaim.
This post, again is just bad. On day 1, a claim that comes after two votes, never warrants a cc. The claim didn't even feel genuine to me. A real claim does not look like that and even if it was, this post is still bad. Because town should always want to keep the scum in the dark and pretend like that claim did not happen and brush it away as a joke because at this stage, hiding a claim and constantly repeating that it's a meme claim helps scum also think that.
In post 168, fua wrote:That’s a good point, but I don’t think any VT would claim to be Vig normally since it means they’re probably going to eat a vig bullet at night.
Again, same point as above.
In post 171, Almost50 wrote:
In post 168, fua wrote:That’s a good point, but I don’t think any VT would claim to be Vig normally since it means they’re probably going to eat a vig bullet at night.
I don't think it's smart for the Vig to shoot there either way. If N_M is Scum faking he's going to be protected tonight anyway, and the Watcher is there waiting to out the real Vig too. So, if I was the Vig I'd just let it be and try to do something useful instead. If I do flip overnight it's as good as me having CC'd anyway, but if I don't them I'm not outed and I can try again.

P.S. IF N_M is faking he has to be the Strongman, because Doctors can't self-target in Normals, and Watchers can't self-watch either. Now here's the question: Do you think Scum will risk their 1-shot Strongman being eliminated on D1 just to draw out the Vig?? I don't. I thus declare N_M a TOWNIE either way. I just can't tell if he IS the Vig or not.
This is the post that A50 posts that leads fua to just agree. First off, this post is actually much weaker than it's size suggests. It is not smart for Vig to shoot there because it was clearly a meme claim.

N_M does not have to be strongman. People are taking this claim too seriously. If the claim even looked remotely like an actual claim, these points would come into play. But honestly, even if these points come into play, scum never does this on day 1. If any of their non-doctor members claims vig and actually draws the vig shot, they are guaranteed to die the following day. Yes they draw the vig out but it is not a fair trade for scum. This is a large normal. They have so many townies they need dead to win this game. 1 for 1 is not a fair trade.

But because of a post like this that fua doesn't even address point by point, now fua TRs NM?
In post 172, fua wrote:I feel like this kind of play is exactly the balls to the wall thing N_M would do? But you’re probably better at reading him than I am, so I’ll concede on that front. I’m willing to throw him in as town for now and see how it goes later.
A50 isn't even reading NM by meta like this post suggests. Why are you willing to throw him in as town after a pretty nothing nothing post by A50?
In post 173, fua wrote:Anyway, that’s pretty much the answer to my own post about N_M, so I’ll switch.

VOTE: Aaron
And then this vote on me comes right after I call one of fua's posts horrible. No context, no reasoning. Earlier there was a RVS vote on fua and they requested reasons. Now we are out of RVS and this vote pops out of nowhere and the reason is that A50 convinced fua that NM is town. But what does that have to do with anything? Fua's vote was on Uglyduckling, not NM.

I won't be very active for the rest of today because I have some work to get done but these are the issues I have with fua. For what it's worth, I do think A50 is always town if Fua isn't because that definitely felt like a pocketing attempt. For now, I will leave my vote with fua VOTE: fua
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Post Post #205 (isolation #12) » Tue Nov 09, 2021 1:08 pm

Post by Aaron »

In post 155, Aaron wrote: Fua, that was a horrible post. No town vig should ever cc here.
This was the post in question. I'll leave you all with that for now and check back in sometime tomorrow.
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Post Post #213 (isolation #13) » Tue Nov 09, 2021 2:31 pm

Post by Aaron »

In post 209, fua wrote:And I voted you because your argument was weak, not because you're sussing me. You're cutting out context from my posts as well as the logic I have behind them in order to fit your narrative.
there was no context to cut off. you said nothing about me prior to voting me. You're saying that I'm missing things in order to "fit my narrative" when there was nothing to miss and you yourself have replied to none of my posts. Now you're just pretending like you're defending mozamis' wagon so you can say you defended town tomorrow. I'm pretty confident mozamis is town even if only off your stance around them.
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Post Post #214 (isolation #14) » Tue Nov 09, 2021 2:34 pm

Post by Aaron »

In post 207, Dwlee99 wrote:Wagon dissolving with no posting from the person the wagon is on

Yes this is completely natural hmm
No matter how scum indicative silence is for ssbm, I will not be voting a slot with one post. That makes no sense to me and had it gone through, it would've been a zero info flip regardless of flip.
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Post Post #215 (isolation #15) » Tue Nov 09, 2021 2:34 pm

Post by Aaron »

I'm dropping the gimmick sorry I just don't have the time for it right now.
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Post Post #218 (isolation #16) » Tue Nov 09, 2021 3:03 pm

Post by Aaron »

In post 216, Dwlee99 wrote:
In post 214, Aaron wrote:
In post 207, Dwlee99 wrote:Wagon dissolving with no posting from the person the wagon is on

Yes this is completely natural hmm
No matter how scum indicative silence is for ssbm, I will not be voting a slot with one post. That makes no sense to me and had it gone through, it would've been a zero info flip regardless of flip.
A wagon forming isn't the same as it going through

This happens every game and for what
Well I am not aware of this meta and have never seen someone's scum meta just be silence. But if you are correct, in the future I would recommend waiting until ssbm starts posting and then pouncing on them once there's enough posts you can confidently SR. Chances of the wagon going through sky rocket compared to right now where I am very unlikely to be voting ssbm because I don't know about the meta. The fact that most of the wagon formed before ssbm even posted once doesn't make the wagon more appealing either. The meta may be valid but it looks silly to people who don't get it is my point. You didn't ask but oh well I typed this up might as well post it.
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Post Post #219 (isolation #17) » Tue Nov 09, 2021 3:05 pm

Post by Aaron »

I'll be signing off for the night here. I will say that alicek and three's interaction there was really strange. I was individually TRing both of them prior to it. Now I'm wondering if one is scum and one is town. I'm not sure but it'll be a good thing to think about.
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Post Post #321 (isolation #18) » Fri Nov 12, 2021 2:54 pm

Post by Aaron »

Sorry this totally slipped my mind
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Post Post #322 (isolation #19) » Fri Nov 12, 2021 2:54 pm

Post by Aaron »

I'll be catching up in around an hour
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Post Post #328 (isolation #20) » Fri Nov 12, 2021 5:30 pm

Post by Aaron »

Andresvmb I briefly skimmed your posts and agreed with most of it. I'm not sure what you want me to expand on. Uglyduck wasn't the only read you gave.

I don't have much to say at the moment but I do think it's important that 1-2 people unvote until the replacement settles in. If Mozamis is scum, that wagon and slot's bad reputation aren't going anywhere. It's protown to wait and see since there is a replacement now.
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Post Post #329 (isolation #21) » Fri Nov 12, 2021 5:31 pm

Post by Aaron »

fua's scum read on me is still a mystery. Amazing stuff. Nothing else is that interesting at the moment so this is it for catch up I guess.
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Post Post #342 (isolation #22) » Sat Nov 13, 2021 2:26 pm

Post by Aaron »

In post 341, Three wrote:
In post 339, Not_Mafia wrote:One more on mozamis slot
If they continue to refuse to claim then I'll vote there.
We need a claim before hammering.

As I said, the best course of action is to lay off and give the replacement some time to interact and for people to reassess but if we must keep it this way, there must be a claim
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Post Post #382 (isolation #23) » Sun Nov 14, 2021 5:38 am

Post by Aaron »

In post 361, RCEnigma wrote:I'm going back and forth on Aaron/Jackson both just being town or being partners. Fua's read there is probably town indicative regardless of those two slots alignment.
I may have missed something here. But are you saying that you think fua's SR on me that fua has never explained is town indicative? And why is my alignment being grouped with someone else's? This is pretty problematic because I see a lot of issues with this post alone. I'm not ready to vote you because I TRed your predecessor but you're going to have to explain what you mean by "fua's read there" when they haven't explained anything whatsoever. Whether or not it comes from scum I don't know but I know that isn't towny behavior regardless of their alignment here.
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Post Post #383 (isolation #24) » Sun Nov 14, 2021 5:44 am

Post by Aaron »

In post 374, Andresvmb wrote:Also if this flips Scum the rest of the Team is probably just like {Aaron, Kyouko} to be honest.
You think I defend my buddy without offering a reason here? I have plenty of choices if I want to save my buddy and constantly pushing a counter is a very good one. I have not offered a single reason to townread Mozamis and that is because I am not entirely sure why I find them towny. As scum, I know more and have the tools to play this off better regardless of if my buddy flips today. Bad associativea sink me fast and that isn't optimal play at all. I'm not sure why you would think scum would decide to take such a strange stance around their buddy's wagon.

I can't remember if ssbm defended Mozamis, but if they did, you are basically saying that scum are all hard defending a buddy that would've been a much better bus than save. If Mozamis is scum, they are a wonderful bus at this point but I just feel like it doesn't make sense for a scum slot to get wagoned that easily over what I consider nothing. Even now, I'm not sure what the case on the slot is.
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Post Post #384 (isolation #25) » Sun Nov 14, 2021 5:48 am

Post by Aaron »

The past few pages smell really bad to me but I can't figure out why and who is making me feel that way. I'll think on it.
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Post Post #390 (isolation #26) » Sun Nov 14, 2021 9:23 am

Post by Aaron »

In post 389, RCEnigma wrote:
In post 382, Aaron wrote:
In post 361, RCEnigma wrote:I'm going back and forth on Aaron/Jackson both just being town or being partners. Fua's read there is probably town indicative regardless of those two slots alignment.
I may have missed something here. But are you saying that you think fua's SR on me that fua has never explained is town indicative? And why is my alignment being grouped with someone else's? This is pretty problematic because I see a lot of issues with this post alone. I'm not ready to vote you because I TRed your predecessor but you're going to have to explain what you mean by "fua's read there" when they haven't explained anything whatsoever. Whether or not it comes from scum I don't know but I know that isn't towny behavior regardless of their alignment here.
Hmm, I'm not sure why I made the connection on my first read through? It was likely a singular post and I made a flimsy link but I will say looking through isos it probably has to do with a lack of sorting there? Yes you describe them as slightly suspicious based on them thinking vig would take a shot at NM but that's surface level. Also it isn't an out there conclusion for town to come to even if shooting at all tonight is a bad plan of action.

I'll sit on if I believe the connection is still possible when I get over this awful toothache though.
Really? I haven't touched on a pretty big number of players here. I'm scum with all of them by your logic right? Why did you think fua's read was good? fua did not explain the read until after you posted this post.
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Post Post #392 (isolation #27) » Sun Nov 14, 2021 9:27 am

Post by Aaron »

In post 385, fua wrote:Your arrival into the game was heavily clunky and awkward and your case on me was weak OMGUS that naturally would make anyone you targeted suspicious of you. You’re not first on my list at all, but I have my eye on you.

Kyoko probably needs to die today if RC keeps up this content.
You're calling my gimmick clunky and awkward? I disagree with that and you can check meta for that. This is my first time dropping a gimmick due to being too busy but I do gimmicks every game. And why is clunky/awkward scum indicative?

My case was weak OMGUS? The issue here is that you had no case to begin with whereas I did. You didn't have a case until now and it's been quite a while of me asking you to explain it. There is nothing to OMGUS if you don't even have a case. And for the record, you voted me out of the blue, for no reason, right after I called one of your posts ridiculous. You never explained the vote despite me asking you to multiple times. And my case is the weak OMGUS here. Haha ok.
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Post Post #393 (isolation #28) » Sun Nov 14, 2021 9:29 am

Post by Aaron »

I find this gamestate kind of ridiculous at this point. I don't think the Mozamis slot flips scum but let's just end the day. I'm tired of this stagnant gamestate where no one makes any sense at all to me. VOTE: RCEnigma
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Post Post #394 (isolation #29) » Sun Nov 14, 2021 9:29 am

Post by Aaron »

Someone declare intent, ask for a claim and we'll be done with this day.
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Post Post #401 (isolation #30) » Sun Nov 14, 2021 11:01 am

Post by Aaron »

UNVOTE:
Either people go wagon not mafia or fua (I am willing to do either) or we are forcing a claim out of RCEnigma. Whichever has the most interest in exactly one day is going to be what I go with. Tomorrow morning I am going to make a decision and stick with it.

And RCEnigma, by that time, if we still want your claim and you refuse to claim, you are just dying today. I am concerned with the situation but I am not going to save you if you don't claim and people want you eliminated. This is a shitty situation and I don't know your role nor have I picked up on any hidden messages. You will claim tomorrow if that's what town chooses because not doing so cements your elimination.
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Post Post #650 (isolation #31) » Mon Nov 15, 2021 7:25 pm

Post by Aaron »

I dont know how I feel about any of this. I just want a flip today.
VOTE: ssbm
Im willing to move my vote anywhere it is needed but have limited availability tomorrow. Since this is the biggest wagon, I'm choosing it for now. Sf there are any major changes, hopefully Im on but good luck if not.
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Post Post #705 (isolation #32) » Thu Nov 18, 2021 4:25 pm

Post by Aaron »

In post 684, JacksonVirgo wrote:
In post 674, LicketyQuickety wrote:
End of Night 1fua has died.

They were:
Spoiler:
Welcome, fua. You are a Town Jailkeeper.

Each night you may jail a player, protecting them from all nightkills and roleblocking them.

You win when the Mafia have been removed and at least one townie remains alive.


RCEnigma has died.
They were:
Spoiler:
Welcome, RCEnigma. You are a Vanilla Townie.

You have your voice and your vote.

You win when the Mafia have been removed and at least one townie remains alive.
Lowkey expected to get shot here lmfaooooo.
You thought you would be shot over a claimed jailkeeper??
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Post Post #706 (isolation #33) » Thu Nov 18, 2021 4:28 pm

Post by Aaron »

I think that they are most likely town but it's hard to explain why when it's purely gut. Expecting to be shot is also such a strange thing to say, in a towny way.
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Post Post #707 (isolation #34) » Thu Nov 18, 2021 4:28 pm

Post by Aaron »

Jacksonvirgo that is
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Post Post #732 (isolation #35) » Fri Nov 19, 2021 2:52 pm

Post by Aaron »

In post 713, Three wrote:
In post 706, Aaron wrote:I think that they are most likely town but it's hard to explain why when it's purely gut. Expecting to be shot is also such a strange thing to say, in a towny way.
Does this extend to Alice?
No. Alice doesn't have a typical mafia player's playstyle. You can't use general tells on them because of that.
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Post Post #733 (isolation #36) » Fri Nov 19, 2021 2:53 pm

Post by Aaron »

In post 709, JacksonVirgo wrote:Why would the vigi shoot the JK
What???!!? You think the vig shot fua and scum shot RCE?! I completely take back my townread on you.
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Post Post #734 (isolation #37) » Fri Nov 19, 2021 2:54 pm

Post by Aaron »

That is so insane that I can't actually believe you believed it for more than a second. Please explain what lead you to post something like that. It makes fundamentally zero sense. It is very obvious that RCE was the vig shot and fua was the scum shot. It might as well be mod confirmed. Why do you think vig shot fua in any case scenario?
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Post Post #751 (isolation #38) » Sun Nov 21, 2021 5:06 am

Post by Aaron »

In post 733, Aaron wrote:
In post 709, JacksonVirgo wrote:Why would the vigi shoot the JK
What???!!? You think the vig shot fua and scum shot RCE?! I completely take back my townread on you.
Sorry this was totally my bad. I understand what JacksonVirgo means now.
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Post Post #752 (isolation #39) » Sun Nov 21, 2021 5:07 am

Post by Aaron »

The issue is that I think both of these flips were actually pretty obvious. There was no way scum didn't shoot the Jailkeeper and RCE was a good vig shot that was pretty universally agreed on for the whole day.
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Post Post #753 (isolation #40) » Sun Nov 21, 2021 5:18 am

Post by Aaron »

In post 738, Three wrote:
In post 732, Aaron wrote:
In post 713, Three wrote:
In post 706, Aaron wrote:I think that they are most likely town but it's hard to explain why when it's purely gut. Expecting to be shot is also such a strange thing to say, in a towny way.
Does this extend to Alice?
No. Alice doesn't have a typical mafia player's playstyle. You can't use general tells on them because of that.
Ok, then who is in your PoE?
I don't know honestly. I do think that the out of the people who are saying that scum are all off wagon there is either 1-2 scum or scum is actually all off wagon. It's just unsettling that no one scum reads me. Yes, I voted flipped scum but I also did nothing for most of the day. I thought people would scum read me for the vote because it could easily be seen as me not wanting to be off wagon and suspected heavily the next day. Although the vote is not actually scummy if you analyze it (because in the long run I don't gain much as scum compared to if I vote a counter wagon, that wagon is more likely to go through and saving my buddy will have long term positive effects if I'm scum), it's just strange that I'm not getting any suspicion for it. This is actually the reason I think there might be scum on wagon. I feel like scum off wagon would actually try to shade the people on the wagon but instead everyone here is just saying that scum is all off wagon. So this is either a united town and an all town ssbm wagon or scum bussed and it's not that simple.

To put it simply, I'm not sure given the amount of content in this game that I haven't read and don't have the time to read but recent posts make me think there is one scum on wagon and 1 scum off.
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Post Post #754 (isolation #41) » Sun Nov 21, 2021 5:23 am

Post by Aaron »

My only specific read is just that if one of JacksonVirgo and Andres is scum, I would believe it is Andres. I can't explain this read too well but essentially what it feels like is that JacksonVirgo is not trying to appeal to other players in the game while Andres does feel like he is at least attempting to. I don't believe both are scum. If one of them is scum, it's Andres. If Andres isn't scum, both are town.

I understand that they defended ssbm yesterday but their attitude towards these pushes today doesn't come from scum. Scum doesn't dig their own grave by being this uncooperative. That just doesn't happen especially if they just lost an important pr on their team. Right now scum need to pocket town and whatever JacksonVirgo is doing isn't that.
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Post Post #756 (isolation #42) » Sun Nov 21, 2021 5:32 am

Post by Aaron »

Like, just look at their recent interaction. Andres is buttering everyone up in this nice little post saying I'm sorry for my bad reads yesterday. I understand that town sometimes do this too but it's still more scum indicative than not. The posts today put JacksonVirgo straight on the chopping block while Andres really just steers clear because of the posts that he's posting. Both were off wagon yesterday yet one is getting an insane amount of pressure for being uncooperative and the other is saying they'll reevaluate. Town like it when they feel like other people did something wrong and get a "confession" out of them. What Andres is doing directly appeals to town. Andres could still be town but out of the two, if there is scum, it isn't JacksonVirgo.
In post 742, Andresvmb wrote:VOTE: JacksonVirgo

I’ll put my vote here for now. I do want to actually re-read in light of the fact that RCE was shot and flipped Town. I have been somewhat off thus far.
In post 743, JacksonVirgo wrote:
In post 742, Andresvmb wrote:VOTE: JacksonVirgo

I’ll put my vote here for now. I do want to actually re-read in light of the fact that RCE was shot and flipped Town. I have been somewhat off thus far.
Ah yes. I expect nothing less than omgus
This is a very towny reply. I don't know how to explain why but this reply is very towny.
In post 747, JacksonVirgo wrote:Town y'all stupid. Thats all from me, have a good one
This simply doesn't come from scum. I've seen this post so many times and it's rarely ever come from scum before. A post like this just helps calm town's paranoia and think that if this flips town, it isn't their fault. Because it was JacksonVirgo who was uncooperative. There is no one else to blame, right? Scum almost never post this because it gives town a reason to not want to reassess you and to just want you dead.

VOTE: Andres
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Post Post #757 (isolation #43) » Sun Nov 21, 2021 5:33 am

Post by Aaron »

In post 755, Dwlee99 wrote:I don't really want JV to endgame though, so am fine killing him now
i don't either but Andres is more likely scum than JacksonVirgo. If Andres flips scum, I am willing to let JacksonVirgo endgame. If not, we still have a lot of eliminations left and it's only day two. There's nothing to worry about.
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Post Post #758 (isolation #44) » Sun Nov 21, 2021 5:42 am

Post by Aaron »

Frustrated town that doesn't want to cooperate is still town. Half the reason people scum read them is just because they refuse to cooperate and that is not scummy behavior.
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Post Post #761 (isolation #45) » Sun Nov 21, 2021 9:21 am

Post by Aaron »

In post 760, Three wrote:He specifically paired Kyo with Aaron and was town reading JV all of Day 1, but he isn't questioning the JV vote at all and isn't pushing Aaron even though he was part of his hero solve.
I didn't notice this but why isn't Andres pushing me today if that's the case? Ssbm just flipped scum and I did not talk to them basically at all throughout the first day. These are pretty easily interpreted as scum partner traits and if he was that certain in his hero solve, he should at least be questioning my naked vote at the end of yesterday. I'd like to hear Andres reply to these posts but for now, my vote is staying there.
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Post Post #762 (isolation #46) » Sun Nov 21, 2021 9:25 am

Post by Aaron »

In post 759, Dwlee99 wrote:I could see it be frustrated scum kind of just throwing in the towel.

But eh, we can do this

VOTE: Andres
If we all really think that JacksonVirgo is scum, I would say the best idea would be to eliminate Andres today. A scum flip there clears JacksonVirgo. Not completely but enough that I think everyone needs to reassess that read because I really just don't think their interactions feel even the slightest bit SvS to me. A town flip leaves it up to the vigilante. I think that Andres town and JacksonVirgo scum is highly unlikely but if it's better for the gamestate, one wasted vig shot isn't the end of the world since vig is typically negative utility early on anyways.
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Post Post #777 (isolation #47) » Sun Nov 21, 2021 5:14 pm

Post by Aaron »

UNVOTE:
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Post Post #779 (isolation #48) » Sun Nov 21, 2021 5:17 pm

Post by Aaron »

This is frustrating. Now I really want to take a look at all the people who kept insisting NM was the vig because that was entirely stupid. Even if NM were the vig, they shouldn't have drawn attention to it and the more attention, the more likely vig is to actually feel the need to correct them and cc. I've just scum read all the pr's this game like a genius. I wish Andres hadn't claimed but I probably wouldn't have backed off today if not for it so that's frustrating.
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Post Post #780 (isolation #49) » Sun Nov 21, 2021 5:20 pm

Post by Aaron »

NM's claim was very clearly a meme claim. The only thing to consider is are his reads really this bad?
I'm having doubts on Three because he was the one constantly saying NM was vig which was ridiculous and without extra information or a different wincon, shouldn't be something to draw attention to.

I don't have anything else at the moment.
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Post Post #787 (isolation #50) » Sun Nov 21, 2021 5:38 pm

Post by Aaron »

In post 783, Three wrote:
In post 779, Aaron wrote:This is frustrating. Now I really want to take a look at all the people who kept insisting NM was the vig because that was entirely stupid. Even if NM were the vig, they shouldn't have drawn attention to it and the more attention, the more likely vig is to actually feel the need to correct them and cc. I've just scum read all the pr's this game like a genius. I wish Andres hadn't claimed but I probably wouldn't have backed off today if not for it so that's frustrating.
In post 780, Aaron wrote:NM's claim was very clearly a meme claim. The only thing to consider is are his reads really this bad?
I'm having doubts on Three because he was the one constantly saying NM was vig which was ridiculous and without extra information or a different wincon, shouldn't be something to draw attention to.

I don't have anything else at the moment.
I've already addressed this in past posts. Biggest takeaway though is that it literally didn't matter if NM was actually Vig or not because the situation resolves itself. Obviously the Jailkeeper had to die first, but NM would've been shot tonight and we'd know if he was telling the truth or not then.

Honestly I don't understand the logic of having doubts on me just because I chose to believe NM was telling the truth. How would that be alignment indicative? And are you suggesting I bussed Kyo instead of letting the A50 or RC wagons go through? Because uh, Mafia Doctor was definitely the most valuable role on the scum team and I easily could've saved Kyo.
The thing is that it was a clear meme claim and even if it weren't, drawing attention to it gives town zero benefits whatsoever. NM dies and flips vig. Is that what you wanted when you posted that NM would self resolve? Like it's just a bad idea.

Actually, the Mafia Watcher is the most valuable role. It can find the prs. Vig is neg utility and the shot can easily be controlled to a certain extent. Anything that is a could've is not provable.
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Post Post #869 (isolation #51) » Tue Nov 23, 2021 7:10 pm

Post by Aaron »

I've been caught up for a while but don't really know what to think. I'm legitimately worried that if I scum read another person, i'll end up accidentally revealing all of the town prs. I'm kind of interested in just having Andres choose two people to elim (the vote and vig)
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Post Post #903 (isolation #52) » Wed Nov 24, 2021 6:51 am

Post by Aaron »

I don't have dying wishes. I haven't any strong scum reads that didn't immediately claim pr shortly after I pushed them and the scum that I was on I didn't even scum read so I'd rather not leave an incorrect list of scumreads with a town flip. I'm willing to vote jacksonvirgo though I seriously think this flips town because I know Andres is town and I'd rather let town lead a wagon than scum no matter the flip.
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Post Post #904 (isolation #53) » Wed Nov 24, 2021 6:57 am

Post by Aaron »

In post 903, Aaron wrote:I don't have dying wishes. I haven't hadany strong scum reads that didn't immediately claim pr shortly after I pushed them and the scum that I was on I didn't even scum read so I'd rather not leave an incorrect list of scumreads with a town flip. I'm willing to vote jacksonvirgo because I know Andres is town and I'd rather let town lead a wagon than scum no matter the flip. But I seriously think this flips town
That was worded poorly
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Post Post #923 (isolation #54) » Wed Nov 24, 2021 7:53 am

Post by Aaron »

So you think im scum if JacksonVirgo flips town and if they flip scum? Because you said that if they flipped scum, you would shoot me.
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Post Post #934 (isolation #55) » Wed Nov 24, 2021 10:11 am

Post by Aaron »

In post 924, Andresvmb wrote:
In post 923, Aaron wrote:So you think im scum if JacksonVirgo flips town and if they flip scum? Because you said that if they flipped scum, you would shoot me.
I’m starting to think it’s possible either way. But instead of being overly focused on what I’m going to do with my shot since I’ve already made clear I would shoot JV and I’m expecting another wagon to build (and I’m getting NK’ed here almost surely unless I’m really way off), why don’t you help actually solve the game?
I don't know what you want me to do. I don't feel good about my reads and really don't want to be pushing anyone new right now that isn't on the table but I don't scum read any of them.
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Post Post #935 (isolation #56) » Wed Nov 24, 2021 10:16 am

Post by Aaron »

In post 925, Andresvmb wrote:You’re not really standing in the way of a JacksonVirgo execution even though you think the slot is Town, you’re afraid to put any more reads out there since it’s now becoming very obvious that you’ve been pushing Town for a while in my slot, so why should I think you’re Town exactly? Because you voted for Kyouko on the same page they got executed? Outside of NM who was pushed by Scum and is in my opinion not that likely to have claimed Vig as Scum (but rather as VT), why should I trust any of those last few votes (like yours or Alice’s after hammer vote)?
I don't care if you trust my vote or not. I thought you were scum and was the only person who actually strongly pushed against a JacksonVirgo elim. As shown by the scum doctor day 1 elimination, scum are not people who are guiding the discussion in this game otherwise that would not have happened. It is far more likely for scum to not comment and weakly defend their buddy here than jump out and face you head on like I did. I will not stop this wagon because I was certain they were town if you were scum. I have no strong opinion on them if you are town.

I hav pushed all town this game and I admit to it. However, I also have only had around 3-4 reads total this game. It's not that shocking that there is town in there.
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Post Post #951 (isolation #57) » Wed Nov 24, 2021 12:56 pm

Post by Aaron »

I still feel like JacksonVirgo is town. I just dont understand why they do all of this as scum. It really doesn't make sense to me. If Andres wants to shoot me, I have nothing to say to that. I haven't done anything this game that's been beneficial to town besides a naked vote on flipped scum and there's no reason for me to be alive at endgame. My flip doesn't bring clarity to anything in this game but at the same time, it could be good play regardless because i shouldn't ever be alive at endgame here.
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Post Post #1008 (isolation #58) » Sat Nov 27, 2021 3:05 pm

Post by Aaron »

I also feel like AliceK is town but I guess I'm not certain. My main read on the game at the moment is that Not_Mafia is scum with someone and that someone is neither JacksonVirgo or AliceK. And if it really is one of them, it's the former.
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Post Post #1009 (isolation #59) » Sat Nov 27, 2021 3:14 pm

Post by Aaron »

While I don't understand why AliceK came into today saying that I chose to kill ssbm meant I was town and is now saying that ssbm was going to die anyways so I'm scum, I do still think it's somewhat towny. My vote was important because it was not clear that ssbm was going to die. Voting ssbm put them as the highest wagon (E-1 or E-2 if I remember correctly) which does a lot more damage to the scum team than evening the wagons does. Anything is possible nearing deadline: Uncertains can become certain and vice versa. Every vote placed near deadline is ten times more important than a vote placed any other time of the day. If a bus vote cannot give me a lot of town credit, bussing near deadline is never the right decision for scum to make.

I dislike JacksonVirgo's read on me but don't know if that's partly because I feel they "owe" me for casing them as town. I understand they don't but internally, I feel that way and I wonder if my scum read there now has to do with that.

As for Not_Mafia, half of their game has just been calling me scum and I don't think that comes from town. If they really were town, I think they'd focus on me more instead of just popping in occasionally with votes on me or to call me scummy. None of their content is about me or has anything to do with reading me except the ones calling me scum and that doesn't feel towny. The amount of attention on me is lacking given I am and have always been his top scum read as far as I know. I expect more engagement even from someone who plays like he does.
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Post Post #1030 (isolation #60) » Sun Nov 28, 2021 5:49 am

Post by Aaron »

If I don't hear anything new from Andres in 2 hours exactly, I'm voting AliceK and letting Not_Mafia hammer. I think this flips town but no elim doesn't sound like our best option.
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Post Post #1036 (isolation #61) » Sun Nov 28, 2021 8:49 am

Post by Aaron »

I want last words from Andres and will stay online until very close to deadline. I promise there will be an elimination today so no one should vote until Andres gives reads because this is his last day. There won't be a no elimination today so there shouldn't be a rush to hammer here.
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Post Post #1038 (isolation #62) » Sun Nov 28, 2021 12:12 pm

Post by Aaron »

Are you sure you don't want to give final reads?
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Post Post #1040 (isolation #63) » Sun Nov 28, 2021 12:14 pm

Post by Aaron »

Alright VOTE: AliceK
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Post Post #1053 (isolation #64) » Fri Dec 03, 2021 3:48 pm

Post by Aaron »

So scum thought that gunsmith was more worth their time than vigilante? I guess that sort of makes sense given gunsmith guilties them. I'm trying to think about if the shot says anything about the last scum member. At first I thought it was a poor shot since it was much more clear that Andres was town than JacksonVirgo but now that I understand it, I'm not entirely sure if that means scum is bad.

It's good Andres is still here and I would imagine he didn't shoot last night. It doesn't make sense to shoot someone who claimed pr even if they were really scummy.
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Post Post #1057 (isolation #65) » Fri Dec 03, 2021 4:44 pm

Post by Aaron »

I believed the claim personally. It was a good call though because they were under a lot of pressure. In hindsight, the "no one talk" was a clear indicator that I didn't pick up on.
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Post Post #1093 (isolation #66) » Sat Dec 04, 2021 10:50 am

Post by Aaron »

In post 1071, Not_Mafia wrote:I'm the gunsmith, I have innos on Aaron and Ythan
I hope this isn't true because then that means I've successfully scum read all three town prs.
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Post Post #1128 (isolation #67) » Sun Dec 05, 2021 8:22 am

Post by Aaron »

In post 1127, Not_Mafia wrote:I will check Three
Andres will pew pew UglyDuck
I highly agree with this. I think the most possible for deep wolf are Three and UglyDuck.
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Post Post #1129 (isolation #68) » Sun Dec 05, 2021 8:22 am

Post by Aaron »

I think that I love Ythan and STD and Dwlee are all people that we catch. The latter is maybe a little concerning but Three and UglyDuck are definitely the most concerning.
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Post Post #1130 (isolation #69) » Sun Dec 05, 2021 8:23 am

Post by Aaron »

Also I think that Not_Mafia always dies tonight so just keep that in mind I guess.
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Post Post #1144 (isolation #70) » Sun Dec 05, 2021 2:09 pm

Post by Aaron »

In post 1131, Dwlee99 wrote:Aaron do you think ugly/three are scummier or townier than me?
scummier
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Post Post #1145 (isolation #71) » Sun Dec 05, 2021 2:10 pm

Post by Aaron »

In post 1137, Three wrote:Wait fuck

UNVOTE: on the off chance NM is fake claiming again and the LUV slot is the real Gunsmith.

PE: Nevermind...
This feels fake honestly. I've felt this way about this slot more or less for the whole game. Not sure if that means it's just play style.
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Post Post #1149 (isolation #72) » Sun Dec 05, 2021 3:08 pm

Post by Aaron »

Good job Not Mafia for really pushing us in the correct direction at the end there
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Post Post #1150 (isolation #73) » Sun Dec 05, 2021 3:08 pm

Post by Aaron »

Good game everyone.
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