i get confirmed town! specifically, ate will flip mafia barring insane circumstances (pedit: pog). with that being true, if i were mafia, i would have chosen to hammer winfried when i got the chance to (759), because in that case winfried is either town or jester, and there's little reason to think he is jester. BUT THIS ISNT A GUARANTEE!!! in fact, there is this possibility that i'm mafia & i have some wild reason to think winfried is the jester, so i am instead trying to thread the needle and get two town executions. TO MITIGATE this outcome, i will argue to execute winfried (actually, i'll argue it because i think winfried isn't the jester, and allow me to elaborate)
mafia gets sealed out of winning the game. if i'm confirmed town, and galron is confirmed town, there is no way to get parity with just one mafia.
so our goal becomes to eliminate slots purely based on whether they have probability to be mafia compared to jester.
that is what i'll be thinking and trying to talk about today. i believe winfried is the slot with the lowest chance of being jester -- galron, you said yourself that you don't think he's maf, and more than anything else i think that's a sign that he's not the jester (i believe he's most likely to be town, but this is one of those statistically unintuitive situations where we ignore the possibility of him being town because it's irrelevant). so we execute him first, which has the added benefit of confirming me town that last like 5% or whatever.
there's one single mitigating factor which is that, assuming winfried is town and we execute him, the remaining mafia gains the ability to kingmake by quickly voting the jester who then votes themself and then wins at deadline. but uh i don't really care about that. if that happened i'd mark it down as a win if i had the right idea who was jester honestly, like this is why 3p sucks and why it's bizarre i chose to play this game.
if you're town: sorry for voting you! i'll take at least some of the credit for getting a wagon going on ate, but you deserve a hefty portion of the credit for getting us to this point by virtue of apparently townreading me and voting winfried about it. we'll see how things go!
if you're mafia: be bo bo bo be ba ba ba bbobobobo
so i might as well vote winfried instantly but i wouldn't mind having someone (maybe galron or whoever it is that happens to be the last town) check my logic here. and in any case i think we benefit from having some time to think things thru at this point.
these two votes are extremely interesting. as mafia, they constitute a gamethrow, though it took me a few moments to figure out for myself that i got confirmed from it. in fact i was like staring at the votecount and puzzling over how that was able happen--multiple votes + a 3p just taking up space among the votes, both make the elo rules different from usual. but radical rat had already explained the circumstances earlier. the vote of winfried in this case, as mafia, would have to be nothing other than a last-ditch effort, and a weird one -- the hope would be that galron for some reason gets cold feet and takes the chance to vote winfried. except one extra vote doesn't really change whether that's possible. the strongest, occam's razorest thing to make from this is that rh9 is either town or jester. as jester, it's actually a good play, i think! confirming me (assuming rh9 just strongly believes i'm town, maybe not unreasonable) means that fewer other people are options to vote; right now, if we chose randomly, rh9 would have a 50-50 chance of getting hit before the game ended but if i'm not confirmed there is the chance that two town are executed thus ending the game prematurely. i THINK. anyway, rh9 has felt mildly like town in the last like several hours but as i stated that's not really here nor there.
You got (mostly) confirmed not Mafia, and RH9 also did, albeit slightly less so. Regardless of which of you is the Jester, WINfried kinda has to be scum, yeah? So it's not really a particularly risky vote.
Maybe the real Mafia was the friends we made along the way
i get confirmed town! specifically, ate will flip mafia barring insane circumstances (pedit: pog). with that being true, if i were mafia, i would have chosen to hammer winfried when i got the chance to (759), because in that case winfried is either town or jester, and there's little reason to think he is jester. BUT THIS ISNT A GUARANTEE!!! in fact, there is this possibility that i'm mafia & i have some wild reason to think winfried is the jester, so i am instead trying to thread the needle and get two town executions. TO MITIGATE this outcome, i will argue to execute winfried (actually, i'll argue it because i think winfried isn't the jester, and allow me to elaborate)
mafia gets sealed out of winning the game. if i'm confirmed town, and galron is confirmed town, there is no way to get parity with just one mafia.
so our goal becomes to eliminate slots purely based on whether they have probability to be mafia compared to jester.
that is what i'll be thinking and trying to talk about today. i believe winfried is the slot with the lowest chance of being jester -- galron, you said yourself that you don't think he's maf, and more than anything else i think that's a sign that he's not the jester (i believe he's most likely to be town, but this is one of those statistically unintuitive situations where we ignore the possibility of him being town because it's irrelevant). so we execute him first, which has the added benefit of confirming me town that last like 5% or whatever.
I agree that this confirms you not mafia, but I don't think you were ever at e-1, so I can't rule out jester. It would be a big balls play to open wolf and try to get two town lims out of this, which I don't put past you, but it's pretty remote so I'm not going to cloud myself with it.
