Micro 1040: Shirley, You Blitz!

[schadd_]

ugh

[schadd_]

VOTE: not_mafia there has to be a firstvote

[schadd_]

i dont feel like anyone in particular that has posted is town although i did go back and notice that galron was confirmed so that was nice

[schadd_]

i dont feel like anyone in particular that has posted is town although i did go back and notice that galron was confirmed so that was nice

I am going to interpret this as Jester Claim #1

VOTE: schadd_

dont like this !

[schadd_]

VOTE: galron

[schadd_]

sorryyyy

[schadd_]

im not

[schadd_]

yeah i did that for fun

[schadd_]

i am in fact being very plain here

[schadd_]

Okay but with jesters galron can actually die if you do something like that

yeah i dont think this is really true with one vote. also i said sorry

[schadd_]

does like nobody else understand the joy of voting the confirmed town person??? is Nobody upset?? frustrated?? that they don't get to do it because i did it already??

[schadd_]

i am not claiming jester: plainly

[schadd_]

oh ok sorry UNVOTE: galron

[schadd_]

& in exchange u have to townread me and stop asking if im a jester

[schadd_]

ok here's my first good vote

VOTE: radical rat

• so this is a blitz game and it looks like we have a handful of dawdlers in the pl here. everytime you say "poke player" imagine youre poking me in the eye socket/temple to try to give me a headache. anyway if i want to move towards a good execution meaningfully it occurs to me to act fast
  
• i do think that radical rat voting me was a sign of someone wanting an excuse to get a vote down, which is something that non-town alignments are generally happy to do
  
• idrc if i end up voting a jester. crack eggs to make an omelette

pedit hello! i do know the voting rules and am town. i voted galron for fun, which is actually very obviously a possibility

[schadd_]

i'm not really sold that jesters will like fool around to try to get voted

[schadd_]

WHAT!!!! <- i'm joking

[schadd_]

Fuck!!! Snake!!!

[schadd_]

Well i just have the one vote & incidentally i dont believe it was from town

[schadd_]

whats up

[schadd_]

i looked at the old game recently and didnt really remember how i felt from it. i think both then & now i've been sort of trying to figure out from scratch how to approach the game. iirc there weren't locked votes last time or maybe i managed to go through the whole game without knowing they were locked but anyway i'm getting excited about them here

[schadd_]

Also do you know what I did with my paper towel?

i do not know this actually.

[schadd_]

something that hangs out in my mind is to doubt any reason to believe someone is a jester/not a jester

[schadd_]

sorryyyy

[schadd_]

i dont think not mafia needs to be voted necessarily

[schadd_]

idt jesters would do that

[schadd_]

bugspray uses they/them

[schadd_]

for now i might place winfried as town

[schadd_]

VOTE: bugspray

[schadd_]

i don't see why it is most likely that they are jester

[schadd_]

I mean they blatantly aren't town

is this a reason not to execute someone?

[schadd_]

the thing about it is that any player is capable of doing some sort of jester-like performance whenever they feel like it. i think a key aspect of bugspray's play here is that they chose to vote galron.

[schadd_]

was there something that changed your mind about that

[schadd_]

If I vote Galron will you put me to E-1?

it would make me a little unhappy

[schadd_]

sooort of neutral on azumarill. i slightly suspect that they arent a jester ?

[schadd_]

VOTE: megazumarill

[schadd_]

schadd_ vote for me it will be hilarious

no.

[schadd_]

do u have any ideas as to who your partner is

[schadd_]

ahh you have two partners .... so you are a jester! all the more reason not tovote you

[schadd_]

hrmm the one time i remember you doing that you did end up being a wolf . . . . .

[schadd_]

thaks!

[schadd_]

i have udders greg could you hammer me

[schadd_]

id be inclined to think rh9 is one of the several town. which also helps explain the period before the rep in where it felt like everyone that was posting was a wolf

[schadd_]

cool

[schadd_]

VOTE: megazumarill

[schadd_]

umm they've posted a lot and yet there hasn't really been a moment from them that has felt like an attempt at solving/sorting/etc. kind of just making statements about the game/talking inoffensively to people/doing reasoning about jesters (famously something wolves should be able to do with like no issue). not mafia called them a wolf which was cool.

[schadd_]

consider the two votes they've cast in the game which are on not_mafia and bugspray who are like the two people who no one could feasibly object to voting (obviously bugspray could well be mafia which maybe changes things a little)

[schadd_]

maybe youre a wolf man! i dont know! but i think that like your first couple things when you landed in the game indicated like a little bit of trying to parse out alignments that weren't jester

[schadd_]

i continue to be willing to vote rad rat as well incidentally.

[schadd_]

M

u

m

!

M

u

m

!

I

d

i

d

i

t

!

I

f

i

n

a

l

l

y

d

i

d

i

t

!

[for postgame] wait is this the first time you've been a jester & won ? if so you're welcome for getting the ball rolling

[schadd_]

i believe what you've done is stated a reads list

[schadd_]

48 hours left!

[schadd_]

VOTE: ate

[schadd_]

yeah there are astonishingly few votes down

[schadd_]

I don’t know why any of that necessarily makes him town? Both jester or scum could pretend to act townie in this setup.

putting this in my big folder labeled "things posted in this game that seem to completely abandon the idea of scumhunting people based on their behavior/posts/actions"

[schadd_]

oh wow i missed that. no, that isn't a good idea. confirmed townies are wildly +ev for town in nightless games. if you're worried about jesters scumsiding, you can execute a mafia and then let the jesters scumside & magically get town executions through, and then we're in a better position overall and we can check out who made a 180 after the mafia execution. this is assuming for the sake of argument that jesters will behave in this cookie cutter way which is also barely believable. that seems like a caricature of an idea someone would put forward to seem like a jester

[schadd_]

So we have Jesters forced into Townsiding while we hopefully find the scumteam, and though by the same token the Jesters must Scumside after the first Mafia is hit, the change in behavior should be noticeable enough to avoid eliminating them.

ok, so this is an idea i also had except in reverse.

[schadd_]

my immediate inclination would be to think that it comea from mafia, especially since if the idea gains trqction the primary purpose it qould serve would be to contribute to the mafia win condition. but i hesitate to try to make anything of it like that

[schadd_]

So we have Jesters forced into Townsiding while we hopefully find the scumteam, and though by the same token the Jesters must Scumside after the first Mafia is hit, the change in behavior should be noticeable enough to avoid eliminating them.

ok, so this is an idea i also had except in reverse.

I like your idea more than RR's, honestly.

you mean like the idea of just tryinf to execute mafia? hell yeah brother

[schadd_]

do you have any thoughts on ate? (rh9)

[schadd_]

I don’t know why any of that necessarily makes him town? Both jester or scum could pretend to act townie in this setup.

putting this in my big folder labeled "things posted in this game that seem to completely abandon the idea of scumhunting people based on their behavior/posts/actions"

No, I just disagree. You got a problem with that?

~At

well... you're like rejecting this premise that townie posts are a sign that someone is town. like you stated that so plainly that idk what is left as a reason you might believe someone to be town. which is consistent with your play actually, in fact (both of) you have never stated a belief that someone in this game is town! 251 could be construed as such although it is ambiguous. so what gives? are you uninterested in finding town or unconvinced it's possible or what?

[schadd_]

oh wow i missed that. no, that isn't a good idea. confirmed townies are wildly +ev for town in nightless games. if you're worried about jesters scumsiding, you can execute a mafia and then let the jesters scumside & magically get town executions through, and then we're in a better position overall and we can check out who made a 180 after the mafia execution. this is assuming for the sake of argument that jesters will behave in this cookie cutter way which is also barely believable. that seems like a caricature of an idea someone would put forward to seem like a jester

But there wouldn't BE a 180 after Mafia execution unless we hit Town first is the point here.

maybe you'd call it like a 90 in that case (doing whatever -> trying to avoid the last maf being voted). the thing about all this is that it presumes that jesters are so confident in their reads that it's worth switching up their vote despite this drawback of seeming to be jestery because of it. moreover there are like a handful of slots where a concrete set of scumreads has been barely wrestled from them or not really been given at all, and ample reason for anybody regardless of jesterness to change how they approach the game at different times. i don't think that there's a lot of merit to jester-hunting based on that

[schadd_]

Mafia and Jesters both will oppose my plan, because if I'm right it catches them all

when you say it catches mafia, are you just referring to the fact that it makes jesters become Inclined to try to hunt for mafia

[schadd_]

so like is there still a part of your plan where we execute galron / some other town on purpose because if not i'm quickly losing interest in figuring out what youre talking about

[schadd_]

you mean like bring the game to a condition where half of the possible executions make the game instantly end in a loss for town and then hope everything works out

[schadd_]

i'm quickly losing interest in figuring out what youre talking about

sorry turns out this happened anyway

[schadd_]

VOTE: bugspray

[schadd_]

jeez

[schadd_]

I don’t know why any of that necessarily makes him town? Both jester or scum could pretend to act townie in this setup.

putting this in my big folder labeled "things posted in this game that seem to completely abandon the idea of scumhunting people based on their behavior/posts/actions"

No, I just disagree. You got a problem with that?

~At

well... you're like rejecting this premise that townie posts are a sign that someone is town. like you stated that so plainly that idk what is left as a reason you might believe someone to be town. which is consistent with your play actually, in fact (both of) you have never stated a belief that someone in this game is town! 251 could be construed as such although it is ambiguous. so what gives? are you uninterested in finding town or unconvinced it's possible or what?

I’m actually starting to come around to you possibly being town, because I’m less confident on everyone else.

~At

this does like nothing for me. its like everything you've said in this line of discussion is like a complete non sequitur from your other pieces of it

[schadd_]

i wonder why it feels like at most 1 person that is talking has a chance of being town

[schadd_]

VOTE: megazu
VOTE: ate
VOTE: radical rat

honestly no idea how i'd sort out who are the jesters among these but i don't feel like any of them are the town i'm looking for

[schadd_]

jst going to hold out hope that its winfried and the two townies currently in the game like immediately found each other & bugspray jsut made a little mistakie

[schadd_]

i think rh9 wolud be the more responsible townread unfortunately

[schadd_]

do u still think that i'm a jester or something

[schadd_]

weird to think that both of the executions so far have been people seeming to do like very obvious jester moves. and i think that regardless of who the last jesters are they've been playing a pretty honest game, which is weird. i think the closest that could come to being untrue is if it's exactly radical rat & ate, the former advancing a pretty plainly pro-scum thingy at the expense of any attempt in particular to solve the game & ate for maybe just playing in an odd and wolfy way

separately, thinking that rh9's hammer on NM was odd

[schadd_]

I wonder if N_M still thinks Meg and RH9.

me tooooooo

[schadd_]

i hadn't felt inspired by the bugspray vote (seemed like a jester, would be hard to get associatives), but they also just didnt seem like someone that had a high probability of being town. i didn't say anything abt bugsy, but i also had already stated two townreads on people who weren't bugsy which i think makes it fairly clear that they would have been in my poe. i forgot that there was the deadline threshhold thing at deadline & i thought that it was just chosen randomly among people who had the most votes; in the couple hours left in the day, there wasn't really enough time for another good faith wagon (maybe somebody decides on a whim to vote megaz? but i also didn't really mind keeping them in the game) but there would be a theoretical possibility of mafia/jesters piling onto someone randomly. so i just voted bugspray. i don't think that this really changed any outcomes.

with regards to 554: i mean i have been thinking that. i think nm's reads are decent and i'd think he was telling the truth. idk what to tell you.

theoretically i might get pissed at you for not like trying to talk to me about those things before voting me except i think i've barely been doing that with anyone else. but also keep in mind i will be trying to get you to townread me bc thats something that would nearly win us the game (with respect to mafia) if that happens

[schadd_]

VOTE: megazumarill

[schadd_]

Well they werent town

[schadd_]

well played! i didnt think about it all that hard but i think i would have had jester as a low prob

[schadd_]

while i was in the shower:
figured winfried & rh9 arent the jester and one of them is town. i think its winfried, finding it increasingly odd that rh9 is like sort of present in a conversation but not really otherwise indicating movement towards a gamesolve. like the "i comprehend" thing made me go ":)" for a while but at some point one wonders what you are comprehending about. also i have found the story with regards to nm to be fractured. also finding both of the jesters scmread him which is like hilarious.

i reckon there are zero town among radical rat & ate, and could easily see arguments towards either of them being the jester honestly. radical rat imo has done more of a cookie cutter attempt at seeming to be a wolf which i think i've stated already. ate has been the one i've been leaning toward as mafia bc they have sort of an appearance of being around and pestering people and also avoiding direct confrontation but in any case i think that either of these two people, if they are mafia, have tried to seem like they're a jester at least a little bit. and like that's a polarity that i don't really think i can pick apart or really care to.

[schadd_]

just an aside abt megaz is that i noticed that they had like no self preservationality to speak of which i took as a sign of them not being town (town loses if they die) but i guess it should have also been a sign of a jester. i only mention this for the record

[schadd_]

There can be no more clowning around now though.

Tentative guess is schadd_/WINfried scumteam.

Got that, RR.

yeah so like what are you getting??? is there like a little notebook you have where you're writing down these guesses ??

[schadd_]

mafia

[schadd_]

figured winfried & rh9 arent the jester

.

[schadd_]

actually you can feel free to take this to mean that i think you're some other thing that's not town or mafia or jester. i wont stop you

[schadd_]

yeah i think that you're mafia

[schadd_]

maybe you're just a brilliant and hilarious jester or something. or town!!! i guess

[schadd_]

grungh

[schadd_]

COLD HARD FACT: out of 6 eliminations i've witnessed in this setup its been 5 jesters and 1 town

[schadd_]

uh i think bugspray maybe did it

[schadd_]

actually you can feel free to take this to mean that i think you're some other thing that's not town or mafia or jester. i wont stop you

OK. But I still think that RR and AtE is more likely to be Mafia than me.

You don't know your alignment then.

This has jester written all over it.

Heres my impression of galron & rh9

[schadd_]

actually you can feel free to take this to mean that i think you're some other thing that's not town or mafia or jester. i wont stop you

OK. But I still think that RR and AtE is more likely to be Mafia than me.

You don't know your alignment then.

This has jester written all over it.

Heres my impression of galron & rh9

Followup to previous post

[schadd_]

I am glad detective schadd is figuring this out.

ugh fuck wait god fuck

[schadd_]

yeah i'm fairly willing to place winnie as the town. so i'll plan to vote rh9 & ate today. anyone object? no?

[schadd_]

i'm sure i've heard some compelling argument at some point in the past that multiple votes are an antitown mechanic but like god it is such a delight for me to just like vote a handful of people and let everybody else figure out what happens from there

[schadd_]

this is with complete acknowledgement that an outsized proportion of the nuances of that ultimate outcome have been decided by jesters

[schadd_]

i wanna say rh9 is the least jestery slot to me

[schadd_]

uhhhh to like not get voted? which is granted the same thing as town. but yeah i think no one has voted him all game and incidentally he has like never seemed to see fit to approach the game differently

[schadd_]

yea 0 votes. maybe he's jst thinking "if i just tell people i understand their posts enough theyll have to vote me eventually." which i am also forced to grant as true

[schadd_]

he tried something new recently which was telling me he didnt understand my post

[schadd_]

I genuinely did not comprehend that post.

i genuinely believe you

[schadd_]

theres this thing you and galron do a lot where you'll like quote a post and say something and then say another thing quoting that previous post. which is what i did

[schadd_]

it was more of an impression

[schadd_]

several town ie 4. yea i thot it was you and winfried

[schadd_]

no objections ok VOTE: ate VOTE: rh9

[schadd_]

yeah yeah

[schadd_]

happy to have been able your second time making a statement abt someones alignment ever (and also your first one where yo usaid i was town)

[schadd_]

did u know it was melo yesterday too

[schadd_]

i forgot abot that LOL

[schadd_]

Well they werent town

well played! i didnt think about it all that hard but i think i would have had jester as a low prob

[schadd_]

sorry let me try something else. ohhhhhhhh god fuck!! oh shit!!! holy shit!!! ok well i thot they weren't jester so the correct thing for me to do is jsut like sit around and pester people until presmuably 1 hour before deadline or something

[schadd_]

whoops

[schadd_]

i wonder if its because im voting you..

[schadd_]

its more like idt i would be able to get any closer to figuring out who is jester. i guess i'm voting rh9 who is a slot i feel like has a slightly higher chance of being town than radical rat but the lowest chance of being jester. anyway once again odd that i'm the one in particular who gets this criticism

[schadd_]

radirat how do you feel abt the fact that your plan came true

[schadd_]

idk how i'd deal this game if i'd had to confront the possibility of maybe even two people here being town

anyway i think i contineu to be comfortable supposing there are 0 town among radirat & ate i think both of them are like playing too cinematically

[schadd_]

I think I'm headed to voting schadd_ here.

don't

[schadd_]

yeah i like don't know what i'd say in my defense here. i've been quite present and active and eager for i think the duration of the game, townread by at least 2 of the other slots that are crrently alive and at least one of the flipped jesters, and each of the two people i'm voting have made it to elo having casted exactly one unimpressive vote prior. do you think i'm like some sort of big charismatic scary wolf that's going to steal the game from you? i'm not like that. also thank you for calling me charismatic.

[schadd_]

uh i think they have fairly textbook scum semblances (active lurking, ranting abt 3rd parties, not following up on conversational threads with people) and i've been interested in voting them for quite a while at this point. 512 stood out as particularly wolfy to me.

unfortunately would not be able to place very high odds on them being non-jester which is something i think ive talked about. it kind of seems like there's at least one mafia here who is trying to seem like a jester, which is a brilliantly losing play (if you're hiding behind the actual jester, and town executes that actual jester, then you lose). i've been wondering if it's winfried + rh9, which is the only team that is surely not trying to do thatㅡi've stated that both of them look unlike jesters. but that hinges on first of all my reads being wrong, which happens a lot but i guess i'm not interested in pursuing that for a kind of tenuous reason (i guess there could be town pretending to be a jester, or also there could just be someone thats town thats not behaving how i would expect which also happens all the time)

[schadd_]

just posting in case it confirms something

[schadd_]

yeah that i'm not teamed with ate or if i am i think winfried is jester which i dont

[schadd_]

also i guess i just know about ate being mafia now

[schadd_]

pog

[schadd_]

bo bo bo bo be bo bo bo? ba ba ba ba? bogos binted?

[schadd_]

great! with that flip, two things happen:

• i get confirmed town! specifically, ate will flip mafia barring insane circumstances (pedit: pog). with that being true, if i were mafia, i would have chosen to hammer winfried when i got the chance to (759), because in that case winfried is either town or jester, and there's little reason to think he is jester. BUT THIS ISNT A GUARANTEE!!! in fact, there is this possibility that i'm mafia & i have some wild reason to think winfried is the jester, so i am instead trying to thread the needle and get two town executions. TO MITIGATE this outcome, i will argue to execute winfried (actually, i'll argue it because i think winfried isn't the jester, and allow me to elaborate)
  
• mafia gets sealed out of winning the game. if i'm confirmed town, and galron is confirmed town, there is no way to get parity with just one mafia.
  so our goal becomes to eliminate slots purely based on whether they have probability to be mafia compared to jester.
  that is what i'll be thinking and trying to talk about today. i believe winfried is the slot with the lowest chance of being jester -- galron, you said yourself that you don't think he's maf, and more than anything else i think that's a sign that he's not the jester (i believe he's most likely to be town, but this is one of those statistically unintuitive situations where we ignore the possibility of him being town because it's irrelevant). so we execute him first, which has the added benefit of confirming me town that last like 5% or whatever.

[schadd_]

there's one single mitigating factor which is that, assuming winfried is town and we execute him, the remaining mafia gains the ability to kingmake by quickly voting the jester who then votes themself and then wins at deadline. but uh i don't really care about that. if that happened i'd mark it down as a win if i had the right idea who was jester honestly, like this is why 3p sucks and why it's bizarre i chose to play this game.

[schadd_]

let me say something to rh9:

• if you're town: sorry for voting you! i'll take at least some of the credit for getting a wagon going on ate, but you deserve a hefty portion of the credit for getting us to this point by virtue of apparently townreading me and voting winfried about it. we'll see how things go!
  
• if you're mafia: be bo bo bo be ba ba ba bbobobobo
  
• if you're jester: cool!

[schadd_]

and to galron:

• i wasnt sorry for voting you at all. i was just saying that for townclout

[schadd_]

moreover if you were just reaction testing me with 712 i'm double not sorry

[schadd_]

so i might as well vote winfried instantly but i wouldn't mind having someone (maybe galron or whoever it is that happens to be the last town) check my logic here. and in any case i think we benefit from having some time to think things thru at this point.

[schadd_]

VOTE: Shadd
VOTE: WINfried


This is my current best guess for the scumteam, I think RR isn’t scum and will sheep him.

I think if RR was scum, I’d probably already be dead.

But it looks like both town and jester lose this.

~At

So you think that the whole scumteam already voted you?

Most likely. I would be shocked if there wasn’t at least one scum on me.

~At

I think that. I'm going to put Winfried on E-1.
VOTE: WINfried

Hammer.

You said so.
VOTE: AtE

these two votes are extremely interesting. as mafia, they constitute a gamethrow, though it took me a few moments to figure out for myself that i got confirmed from it. in fact i was like staring at the votecount and puzzling over how that was able happen--multiple votes + a 3p just taking up space among the votes, both make the elo rules different from usual. but radical rat had already explained the circumstances earlier. the vote of winfried in this case, as mafia, would have to be nothing other than a last-ditch effort, and a weird one -- the hope would be that galron for some reason gets cold feet and takes the chance to vote winfried. except one extra vote doesn't really change whether that's possible. the strongest, occam's razorest thing to make from this is that rh9 is either town or jester. as jester, it's actually a good play, i think! confirming me (assuming rh9 just strongly believes i'm town, maybe not unreasonable) means that fewer other people are options to vote; right now, if we chose randomly, rh9 would have a 50-50 chance of getting hit before the game ended but if i'm not confirmed there is the chance that two town are executed thus ending the game prematurely. i THINK. anyway, rh9 has felt mildly like town in the last like several hours but as i stated that's not really here nor there.

[schadd_]

jeezy weezies

[schadd_]

I agree that this confirms you not mafia, but I don't think you were ever at e-1, so I can't rule out jester.

if i were jester, i wouldn't have confirmed myself as not-mafia (something i could have done is just not posted during that time). i guess the universe where i'm jester doesn't really matter because i don't have a wincondition in that case. so like what am i doing

[schadd_]

I am not willing to simply believe they didn't think I was jester

this is once again a concern that can be remedied by the fact that i'm interested in voting you today.

[schadd_]

VOTE: winfried

willing to bet it all that this slot isnt jester. he handed out townreads pretty handily which i think is just something that prevents votes on you (compare to megaz who hardly did it at all). moreover seeing ate townbinned in 385 is interesting, and he's playing this day phase like someone that does in fact need to get two town executions done

[schadd_]

the period where he was e-1 occurred between like midnight and 2am somewhere-in-germany time so regardless of jesterness theres ample reason to believe he would have quite simply been asleep BUT!!!!! if he was randomly awake and saw it and was jester he wold have hammered himself.........................

[schadd_]

i guess i'm willing to say

my intention is to vote radical rat tomorrow

. the reason i say this is because there is possibility a kingmaking situation being able to happen tomorrow if winnie flips town, which like sucks and i don't think that should count. in particular it wolud just come down to whether galron & i make it to the buzzer at the start of the last day before mafia & jester do. so i'm declaring my vote here (subject to change) in case that like the pre-emptive vote would get to be accepted i guess.

[schadd_]

Well fuck, I've just been wrong on all my reads this game huh?

I do still think RH9 is Jester, and WINfried has the highest chance of being AtE's partner, so... Welcome to the Town I guess, schadd_?

VOTE: WINfried

I know it's early, but we're not in Elo anymore, and I really don't expect to change my mind on this one.

schadd_ doesn't this vote confirm radical rat as town?

i dont care about town. if winfried is mafia or jester the game is over, if winfried is town then radical rat is something else

[schadd_]

im fine with he & it

[schadd_]

Actual it confirms him as not jester

i dont see how it would do that. mafia and jester both don't have anything in particular to do during this day phase i think.

[schadd_]

Jester's need the game not to end. That vote risks that occurring.

well... like no because winfrieds getting executed anyway, and as jester like maybe rr wants to make you think this specifically

[schadd_]

honestly just gonna say i have no idea who jester is but will continue to expect to vote radrat

[schadd_]

cool!!!!!!