Micro 1038: Brass and Shrapnel - Game Over

[Flea The Magician]

Cause I've DONE IT BEFORE and I can DO IT SOME more...

VOTE: UNOwen

Tick tick tick tick tick tick tick...

[Flea The Magician]

Sir, this is a Wendy's

no, it's a cakezys

[Flea The Magician]

ftr last time I played this, all the vig's were blank :p

[Flea The Magician]

Should I be concerned the game haven't gone boom yet? :/

[Flea The Magician]

I had a lot of time off so I went through quite a few scenarios following a massclaim. An assumption is made that all Town tells the truth.

• If you make a matrix with all possible setup specs on one axis and all possible scum claims on the other axis, you get 72 scenarios. Not all scenarios are equally likely (duh).
• However, you can only get 25 unique sets of logical claims. If we went down a massclaim path, these would require further analysis to design an optimal decision strategy.
• 20 of the 25 sets (80%) give us immediate information that make traditional scumhunting easier.
• In a
  perfect
  town world where scum must claim first AND claim suboptimally, town's average winrate is AT LEAST 93.5% based on pure mechanical play. Note that whether scum has Doc or RB does not matter here.
• I have only tested 24 scenarios (33% of all scenarios), but so far I have found 8 guaranteed wins (33% of tested scenarios). In the worst case of these scenarios (the last one I tested), town wins only 48.8% of the time (based on mechanics alone).

I stopped testing to get some feedback whether I should keep going with this or not. There are chances for guaranteed wins, but there are also chances for poor winrate. Of course, this only assumes purely mechanical play. If I finished testing all possible scenarios, a more robust analysis of overall winrate can be done. But I don't want to do all that work if A) people figure the odds are already great and we should massclaim now, or B) the chance of bad odds is already terrible and it would never be worth the risk.

I am absolutely against a massclaim. It didn't work last time, as theres a randomisation factor.
Bombs absolutely should not claim.

[Flea The Magician]

zefiend is zetown.

We should just play the game out.

Still a good idea. What do you think about the votes against you?

Explain why to me, would you?

[Flea The Magician]

Again, this is going to need explaining to me.

How is 72 tonally scummy?

[Flea The Magician]

So whats the difference between me asking about the votes and them asking about the votes?

[Flea The Magician]

1. You weren't asking about a vote on you.
2. Phrasing. "Explain why to me" rings like someone wanting to understand the reasoning behind the vote. "What's the thinking here" feels a little more like what someone says when they know there are valid reasons to consider them scum and are wondering if the player is voting them for a good reason or is right for the wrong reasons.

That's my gut feel about the phrasing and since it is just an instinctual impression that's why I said it seems tonally scummy

to me

: I recognise it's possible others have different impressions of those posts.

fair.

[Flea The Magician]

fair.

Is your vote still rvs or is it serious?

I want you to tell me what you think my vote is at this point, cause this seems odd to me.

[Flea The Magician]

fair.

Is your vote still rvs or is it serious?

I want you to tell me what you think my vote is at this point, cause this seems odd to me.

If I had a strong feel either way I wouldn't have asked you.

Page 4 of a slow game thats just about threatening to from RVS, and I've challenged both votes there.

it's RVS and I'm wondering why you would think it's serious.

[Flea The Magician]

also yes scum at this stage comes in an oopshammers

[Flea The Magician]

fair.

Is your vote still rvs or is it serious?

I want you to tell me what you think my vote is at this point, cause this seems odd to me.

If I had a strong feel either way I wouldn't have asked you.

Page 4 of a slow game thats just about threatening to from RVS, and I've challenged both votes there.

it's RVS and I'm wondering why you would think it's serious.

It doesn't seem like we're in rvs, and I don't know why you would think that.

Looks like we'll both have to remain mildly puzzled.

[Flea The Magician]

No idea.

... just checking are we still RVS? Cause i might just votenado

[Flea The Magician]

VOTE: Eden's Flame

Water summons wind.
Wind makes fire dance.

[Flea The Magician]

VOTE: Eden's Flame

Water summons wind.
Wind makes fire dance.

Nicely done

Thank you

[Flea The Magician]

ok I hate these, but SNAP LIST because ye gods even my breath the morning after the night before isn't this stale.

Scum team is in Onion, Cheeky and Eden. Potentially for LGW and Imaginality in there.

This is a snap solve, no reasoning will be given.
Tell me why I'm wrong.

[Flea The Magician]

Onion, Cheeky and Eden

I'm going to be contrarian and say you don't have 1 scum in here.

Cool.
Got some thing from it at least.

I'm still fine with a LGW flip - but would like to poke around. I don't like that LGW stalled out at E-1 there are two reasons for that resistance. LGW is scum and buddy is off wagon or LGW is town and both scum already on wagon. So good flip either way imo.

Really? It's basically an Extended RVS wagon as far as I'm concerned. Game is low activity there's not much really to go on and it's clear pressure is just being ignored completely probably due to Yuletide spirits. D1 is bad in general but this seems awful.

[Flea The Magician]

ok I hate these, but SNAP LIST because ye gods even my breath the morning after the night before isn't this stale.

Scum team is in Onion, Cheeky and Eden. Potentially for LGW and Imaginality in there.

This is a snap solve, no reasoning will be given.
Tell me why I'm wrong.

Eden's not a bad vote. Cheeky seems a little forced to put in there; I don't love the naked votes but given her upcoming VLA I'd hesitate to echo you there. Onion, maybe, but apparently this is one of those gimmick accounts who's just gonna live in null for me until something mechanical happens. (I have not watched their videos btw so if there's sekrit content in there maybe somebody can be a boss and share.)

It's too early for associatives probably but as you pointed out, this game is slower than a squashed snake so fook it, let's go bowling and throw out some hot takes. If LGW is scum ZeFiend could be a partner. If Eden is scum, UnOwen could be a partner.

I was gonna ask for some reasons but HAW you said you wouldn't give them. I'm leaning towny on you so I'll let it slide for now, I think you're legit just trying to keep the game moving.

I haven't watched onions videos either.

What about adding Cheeky to the solve seems forced?

Interesting on the associatives.

[Flea The Magician]

A small game like this is more difficult with a meme player in it, but I don't think scum take that slot.

ok things I need to address in general currently, but this has really caught me.

Am I correct in assuming that you are TR'ing Onion based solely on dedication to the meme account?

[Flea The Magician]

Theres actually been a good couple of questions asked around my shenangians and I'm keep to see an answer to them, so actually amma keep schtum for now.

[Flea The Magician]

So last time this was played,

2 mafia goons.
Faction abilities were KILL and BLOCK or PROTECT

Odds are Protect gets used every night as the estimated success rate is higher than blocking p a maybe vig.

[Flea The Magician]

@SirCakez

- is this correct:

The setup isn't that mafia get either a factional roleblock OR doc, it's that they get a factional roleblock AND doc but can only choose to use one each night.

?

Basically this is correct from how the game was played last time I was in this setup.

[Flea The Magician]

Currently manic and mid pain flare, V/LA 2 days.

[Flea The Magician]

Still manic, but lets do this.

We are not policying Onion, but definitely keeping an eye on them.
Imaginality is a good shot today, as is Zefiend.

UNOwen is town, pav I will TL but I feel I've been pocketed a bit, making them also viable for today.

VOTE: Imaginality is where I'm going for D1.

[Flea The Magician]

If at some point flea flips scum they are possibly SvS with UNOwen given thats their only townread in a broad pool of suspects.

Good hunt. We both know thats not the case don't we.

[Flea The Magician]

I'll aim at Flea

Why?

[Flea The Magician]

I'm vote 3 of 5 required, with 2 days to go at the time.
Using the logic presented here so far the game is solved solely on my actions apparently, and the team would UNOwen for being the only town read and Eden's Flame for the hop off the main wagon, correct?

[Flea The Magician]

I would aim at Imaginality then Zefiend, as my lowest two reads.

[Flea The Magician]

Honestly, maf will BLOCK if they're being targetted, thats why I've put 2 out.

Also they will DOC whoever is taking the shot because of a bomb threat.

I say I've done this before and I'll do it some more....

[Flea The Magician]

If you take a minute to do the CBA, you'll find that mafia are going to doc the person shooting regardless. They can't RB and doc. Second if some dies that someone claims they are targeting and they are the only death it tells you a lot. Sure scum will lie but if you do this each night you will catch someone out plus force scum not to shoot their outed target. This only increases in value as people flip in terms of poe.

Exapdning on this.

Vig's can be blank. They can shoot, and not kill.
1 death is always a scum shot.
2+ deaths is scum+vig and/or scum+bomb and/or vig+bomb

Bomb deaths should be reasonably obvious.

We could potentially have half the game dead tomorrow.

[Flea The Magician]

Eyyy GG ^_^

[Flea The Magician]

Yeah I was well off on this one >.< ah well, we still won