Open 848: Chromavalon: A Bouquet of Colors [Game Over]

[fireisredsir]

heyo, what's up

[fireisredsir]

catchup notes. disclaimer that i may disagree with the earlier notes by the time i got to the end of the thread, but they're what i thought at the time as i went through

- i don't really have strong mech opinions cause im not great at mech, the general idea of "1 muse claim if needed is probably safe" seems ok to me though
- umlaut early posting bothered me a bit, felt kinda posturing
- don't really love the way butterflies seems to mostly be suspecting people for having what they believe to be bad mech opinions. idk, doesn't really feel like a place to catch scum?
- kinda like furtive for calling that out in 176
- nancyfly's theory about dunn's perspective slip in 181... feels towny to me, in that i think it's kinda out there for scum to come up with. would have to meta read to see if nancy is able to replicate that as scum. my guess is she prob can, so i maybe shouldn't read it too strongly
- if butterflies is town, i think that scum may want to avoid pushing them much, since they (both, i think) often push back pretty aggressively
- 199 is a good point i think. possibly +town points to umlaut. i haven't decided
- 212 i have some paranoia that noraa knows people will townread this level of confidence and think "ze wouldn't say that as scum!". not really sold on letting zir off the hook here
- umlaut keeps pointing out flaws in other people's arguments but not really reading them for it. im watching u
- i do not think both butterflies and noraa are scum but im kind of doubting both are town. it feels like one is taking advantage of the other and im not sure which direction that energy is going
- 236 ok really don't like this one from butterflies
- 245 reminds me that i have no idea what implosion's reads are. probscum
- hmm don't love the reads from furtive in 248 except for umlaut, first post of theirs that I haven't liked
- enchant hammer lol
- noraa continuing to explain reasoning for the dunn read after the hammer is... hmm
- 288 implosion scummy imo
- 296 titus towny for voting implosion
- 304 from umlaut is perfectly reasonable but it's also like not towny at all
- 326 hmm maybe i am just a fool for emotional appeals but i kinda think noraa is town here now
- 367 is a good post and has me doubting myself on multiple fronts

[fireisredsir]

guaranteed scum in enchant/implosion/umlaut imo. possibly 2. i scumread umlaut and implosion more, but i could be wrong on that

galron kinda scummy

butterflies kinda scummy, maybe, idk, hydras are hard to read

[fireisredsir]

gotta go downhill first so that i can go back uphill later

what specifically is downhill about that tho

[fireisredsir]

you don't agree with the scumreads?

if you're town i think that scum have been dancing around you a bit in this gamestate so it could be hard to see things from your perspective, since they will have been playing around you. idk if that makes sense

but also what do i know, i don't really have great reads in slow games anyway

[fireisredsir]

guaranteed scum in enchant/implosion/umlaut imo. possibly 2. i scumread umlaut and implosion more, but i could be wrong on that

galron kinda scummy

butterflies kinda scummy, maybe, idk, hydras are hard to read

Why do you scumread umlaut and implosion more than enchant?

~Nancyfly

enchant seems like enchant from what i know of enchant. i don't really have a read on them and idk how to read them, but on the face of things their play has some potential scum motivation. more in the explanation than in the hammer itself

implosion and umlaut i scumread based on play.

umlaut seems like he's mostly poking at other people's cases, and i don't really see much solving from him. i think his play yesterday lines up well with how i would expect scum to play during a day phase where the most active poster is pushing town. the towniest thing he's done is push on butterflies early, but he backed off immediately

implosion 245 just feels really noncommittal in a scummy way, a couple other posts did too. the early mech focus is NAI imo, seems like something he would have done as either alignment. in general he just feels like he's letting other people do the dirty work, and with the way d1 progressed that seems like a position that scum would aim to be in. his case on enchant, though, kinda sold me a little, so that's part of why im considering that i might be wrong here and maybe enchant is scum. i do also like how he called umlaut towny in 105 for pushing on butterflies but... on second thought, there's no "if butterflies is town" here, so maybe that comes from a tmi perspective? hmm

[fireisredsir]

I mean, it’s possible I guess but it’s unusual for two scum to hammer a townwagon before elo but obviously can’t rule it out. One thing about fire catchup that bothers me is him speculating that us and Noraa can’t both be town, that kind of weirds me out because why can’t we both be town? Explain that @fire.

you could be, im not gonna rule it out, i just didn't have that read of things initially. i think it came from the confidence levels expressed in certain posts about each other, felt more like someone was being pocketed rather than two town just genuinely melding

[fireisredsir]

in general he just feels like he's letting other people do the dirty work,

this kind of reads like muse fishing, for hopefully clear reasons. "letting others do the dirty work" is a really, really bad reason to scumread someone in a setup that revolves around town (both muses and VTs) intentionally trying to obfuscate whether they're the ones who are actually doing the dirty work.

I kind of get this vibe from the umlaut read as well; it feels like this criticism could easily be of play that is intentional as town.

gonna need some outside perspective on this. idk how best to play this game format, but i do not think that i am scumreading either of you for behavior that is more likely to come from town than scum, and i do not think that me calling you out for it is in any way fishing. especially since it was in the context of yesterday, in which the only real wagon was on town

[fireisredsir]

Explain what you mean here about a “tmi perspective”. Are you suggesting we’re being tmi’d town or scum by this?

i had the same thought as implosion did, but to me, it came with the caveat of "if butterflies is town". implosion didn't include that. i don't think the statement makes sense in a world where you're scum: why would scum be afraid to push you if you're a scum partner? so the fact that he just said that scum would be hesitant to push you, with no mention of your possible alignment, made me think that could be coming from a perspective of him knowing that you're town

not guaranteed or anything but it's something that caught my eye. and if implosion did flip scum i would be more likely to think you're town as a result

[fireisredsir]

@fire what is your take on your predecessor’s current suspicions on furtive after hard defending him prior to that?

as in do i agree with him? i can see why he could be paranoid. im not sure on furtive myself. i'd like to engage with him/talk to him when he's here to get a better feel for him

pedit: on titus, no, she's barely done anything

[fireisredsir]

in general nancy and i are players who need a lot of room and time. and that is why we act "weirdly" around each other

hmm. i think what you're describing here could make sense. if so then it is more of a possibility that you're both town. if nancy has never pocketed you, do you think that makes her less likely to be scum here?

[fireisredsir]

any pronouns are fine for me, no worries

[fireisredsir]

I actually really liked implo for town based on their posting yesterday

what about it?

[fireisredsir]

ok i like the solving done on the last couple pages. if nora/butterflies/titus are all town, this game is ez

i think 2 or 3 scum are in umlaut/galron/implosion/enchant. if it's 2, which i think is slightly more likely, im really not sure where the 3rd could be. i can see cases for anyone, and would have to re-eval more based on what flips we get.

enchant is prob my least favorite of those 4. id still be willing to vote there, i think, if it comes down to it, but i don't want there to be only 1 wagon today so im going to

VOTE: implosion

[fireisredsir]

i don't have the meta read, but i do agree just off how i felt when i saw it that the umlaut vote felt like it could be a bus. i think my two most likely worlds are implosion+galron+someone else (furtive?), and umlaut+enchant+galron. i don't really see galron town in any solve, so id also gladly vote there

[fireisredsir]

I liked these posts from Galron. It reads slightly townie to me?

opposite for me. ive read some galron meta, and my read of it is that he has a certain attitude as town, and i don't think he usually replicates it very well as scum. it's a sort of independent confidence and secureness in himself. that type of gentle play, not very direct, posting reads in the form of a question to others, is something i see much more from scum galron than town galron

i don't feel super confident in this since i don't have a lot of experience playing with it firsthand, but he fits in nicely to every team i can think of, and i think he looks scummier than not

[fireisredsir]

I can, enchant jumped on me the same way when I voted/pushed his buddy SS in Anything uPick. Scum!enchant doesn’t jump on me unless I push his buddy. So enchant!scum=Umlaut!scum and vice-versa.

this logic doesn't really hold up. enchant doing something once as scum doesn't mean that they only do it as scum. and umlaut being scum doesn't necessarily imply enchant scum based on that, either

[fireisredsir]

Ok, I'm finally back home and ready to blow this game wide open. This post will serve as reads on everyone (10 other players!), and the next post will cover strategy/a previous game I read/confusion.

butterflies

: I townread butterflies. They seem to be actively trying to find mafia, and they explain their thought process behind each vote/suspicion well, which you don't always get here, not pointing fingers at anyone in particular. It's +town that they focus on scumreads rather than townreads. I think I will use this opportunity to answer their questions posed in 70 - thanks for the bone Flea! 1) Read down to find out my suspicions 2) Again, this post has the answers. 3) I haven't played with a hydra before. I now understand that ButterDrew is the same as NancyFly - please keep the names consistent. I haven't really discerned between the two of you - you haven't disagreed on anything yet. That is to say you are just as easy to read as each other because you have been one entity so far. The kind of things I use to scumhunt aren't really be determined by personality - I try not to look at tone or playstyle but rather game analysis/voting.

Galron

: Again, only a few posts, but they are actively voting and seem to be scumhunting which earns them a tentative townlean.

furtive, i notice here that for galron, you start with the phrase "Again, only a few posts". that would imply that someone you previously mentioned also only had a few posts. however, he is 2nd highest on your list, following only butterflies, who had quite a few posts at this point.

do you remember, did you originally have the names in a different order, and switched things around?

[fireisredsir]

i have some thoughts but i'd like to see his response before i speculate

[fireisredsir]

generally agree with you there butterflies, im not sure if your exact solve would be my top choice but i think it's close. im still considering if implosion or galron fits in there somewhere

and i think waiting for noraa is a good idea

[fireisredsir]

Actually, i have no problem with living, i just thinking how to vote fartive without it backfiring in "Enchant pushing it, locktown".
Less is More.

i think you having reads and acting on them would be more beneficial than you being self-conscious about it

[fireisredsir]

it's only elo tomorrow if we flip a town, and i think we have a good chance of being able to not do that

[fireisredsir]

i kinda like a furtive/galron/implosion solve

i was hoping galron would come back at some point but that hasn't happened

[fireisredsir]

Can you - and everyone else - ISO me, to understand why I am so confident that furtive, Umlaut, Enchant makes the most sense as the scumteam?

i understand why you believe in it. i think it does make some sense, and maybe you're just right. i kinda think it's unlikely that it's both umlaut and implosion, though, and right now im scumreading implosion more than i am umlaut

i think flipping anyone in galron/implosion/furtive/enchant/umlaut would give us a lot of info tho, and i think >90% chance that all 3 scum are in that group

[fireisredsir]

also i think noraa is wrong on the read of there being scum in [me, butterflies], and i think i was wrong on my earlier read of there being scum in [noraa, butterflies]. if noraa is scum here, ze could easily just follow the solves that are focused away from zir and accept the townreads from me/butterflies/furtive/most people i think. having some paranoia on me/butterflies doesn't really get zir anywhere if ze's scum, so prob just town

[fireisredsir]

i don't think butterflies would feel a need to work this hard to sell their solve if they're scum. like we're 1 mislim from elo, what's the scum motivation there? if enchant is town, the solve falls apart on the flip if that lim goes through. if enchant is scum, then they're bussing and would prob be better served just pushing that through instead of sitting on furtive instead

[fireisredsir]

im finding it hard to do any more solving without a flip too but i kinda want to wait for galron's replacement to come in

[fireisredsir]

no, ive read a game or two but i think only when she was town

[fireisredsir]

ill accept that it's not impossible but i don't think it's likely, and i don't really scumread their recent posts anyway myself. so if there's no scum motivation that i can see, and the behavior looks like it comes from town, then i don't see any reason to doubt rn

[fireisredsir]

nothing is "unlikely" like anything nancy does is nai period. because i've seen nancy get townread for ridiculous things as scum. nancy's scum range is basically everything you can imagine

if anything she does is nai then why do you scumread her

[fireisredsir]

ok. i can keep in mind that i should be still slightly paranoid then, i guess. but i still think their solve and poe is in the right direction even if it isn't 3/3

[fireisredsir]

idk if i really believe in scumslips like that but i think furtive is likely scum anyway so

shrug

sure

[fireisredsir]

idk if i really believe in scumslips like that but i think furtive is likely scum anyway so

shrug

sure

He said if Enchant flips blue scum. How could anyone besides a buddy know this? Only other possibility is he’s blue muse which I seriously doubt.

~Nancyfly

i don't think thats the only explanation for what he said, and i think if you read the context it's clear he isn't talking about enchant flipping scum anyway

[fireisredsir]

im aware of what you think the slip is

[fireisredsir]

ok thats why I didn't think it was a slip. didn't want to give him the answer just in case, but... i think it's pretty clear that's what it meant. doesn't mean your other reasons for suspecting are invalid, but i think that one is

Italiano p sus for jumping on that though

[fireisredsir]

VOTE: italiano

[fireisredsir]

ok thats why I didn't think it was a slip. didn't want to give him the answer just in case, but... i think it's pretty clear that's what it meant. doesn't mean your other reasons for suspecting are invalid, but i think that one is

Italiano p sus for jumping on that though

So you're buying the bad cover up story?

Town = Blue.
Enchant = flipping blue.
Furtive = VOTING ENCHANT.

The logic does not follow.

-Butterflea.

it's not a bad cover up story, it's exactly the way i read it the first time i saw it

read the post again.

"I think we are in a good place with the vote today, if Enchant happens to flip blue then it's on them for the hammer."

replace blue with green. the sentence makes sense. if you replace blue with scum, it doesn't make sense. he clearly was saying that if they happen to flip town, it's their fault anyway

which, btw, is a weird and kinda sus thing to say on its own, but it isn't a slip

[fireisredsir]

VOTE: italiano

Well hello to you too.

hi!

[fireisredsir]

Italiano, Galron didn't say much. You said you had been following the game - what are your reads so far?

Today I’m sheeping. Tomorrow I’ll give reads and all that.

i don't think that's enough

[fireisredsir]

I do think Italiano's jump is... suspicious in isolation. If furtive flips town it'll be suspicious, if furtive flips scum then it'd be kind of a strange thing to do as a scumbuddy in this kind of game. I guess maybe the motivation would be as scum who hasn't figured out who their merlin is yet to try to suss them out, but it seems like a weird thing for scum to do nonetheless. And vice versa if we flip italiano before furtive.

Curious what fire thinks about that as an associative.

ive been thinking about that. if it is scum italiano sheeping town butterflies to lim scum furtive, there is a lot to gain there for italiano's slot. butterflies immediately townread him for sheeping them, and that townread would probably stick pretty firmly if furtive does flip scum. if the 3rd scum is not enchant/umlaut, then you also get a free mislim or two out of it, because furtive flipping scum would prob solidify in butterflies' minds that their solve is correct. and one more mislim sends us to elo

[fireisredsir]

i have been sus of galron since forever, and italiano's entrance seemed very sus to me as well

ill probably end up voting furtive or enchant since i don't think the lim will go on italiano, but mostly im just considering what other possibilities exist besides your main solve

[fireisredsir]

enchant, do you think butterflies is maf?

[fireisredsir]

enchant, if butterflies is maf, who are their partners?

[fireisredsir]

What didn’t you get about what I said? You said butterfly has scum motivation to push only you. It doesn’t make sense for scum!butterfly to push only you if you’re town. What is the motivation?

that's the opposite of what they said

[fireisredsir]

they were saying that butterflies is pushing anyone else but them, in order to save them for an easy mislim later

not that im endorsing this opinion, just clarifying

[fireisredsir]

idk, ask them. i don't really follow the logic of it, but it is clearly what they are saying:

When i flip town, your whole "Scumteam" will ruin, because main reasoning you use is bussing and this artist slip.


If furtive is town, you gonna say "Whops" and then procced to murder me.

[fireisredsir]

yea i kinda feel like enchant's latest posting looks like scum who feels like they need to take action since they've been sitting around for so long, but also not really wanting to give out associatives or do any real solving. i don't think it's that believable of a read either

i would prefer to vote there and prob will do so tomorrow

[fireisredsir]

ok, ill wait for that at least then

[fireisredsir]

i think id prefer enchant to furtive at this point. but maybe it is just both of them. not sure what made titus decide to switch

[fireisredsir]

i think that if enchant/furtive are both town then titus is probably scum, but i think we prob lose in that case anyway lol

i still think it's galron/italiano but am not sure where he would fit in. probably alongside umlaut

of furtive/enchant i think enchant is more likely to be scum, it could still be both but im not as sold on that as butterflies is

VOTE: Enchant

[fireisredsir]

butterflies, you prefer furtive today?

[fireisredsir]

ok

VOTE: furtive

e-1

[fireisredsir]

actually i could potentially see a world where titus is scum with enchant

[fireisredsir]

well, if butterflies was completely wrong on the rest of their solve, i see no reason for maf to kill them, considering they would do everything they can to push those lims through.

so, i think they were likely right on at least one of enchant and umlaut (now scorpious)

if they were right on both, then maf only really has hope of winning by finding the muses, so muses should be careful, since we likely won't need their info to win and anything to reveal would only hurt town. that's only in the case where both enchant and scorpious are maf, though, there are other possibilities

hi scorpious!

[fireisredsir]

By this logic though. This game is completely unbalanced barring a d1 scum flip(which happened). And I don’t see a game being so one sided..

what

expand on this

[fireisredsir]

im saying that if we've already solved the game, muses have no reason to out themselves by confirming that, and we can just keep going in the direction we're going and it will get confirmed by the flips

if we are way off, then the muses may need to exert some influence, but still should be careful not to out

maf didn't flip d1, that was d2

in which direction are you saying the setup is one-sided? town-sided or maf-sided?

[fireisredsir]

It feels like a caught scum greatly enhances the odds for town I’m this setup to ultimately end up
At the scenario you are describing.

Which as I write it and read seems more like a more common idea. Like “of course catching maf increases chances”
Idk, I’m just trying to fall into the game here.

yeah, that's fine, i get it. in this case it really doesn't have much to do with the setup i feel, it's just that butterflies had a clear solve that they were pounding home, most people have those people in their poe at least if not their top suspicions, the first of the 3 in the solve flipped scum, and butterflies died. so it's more due to the current state of the game than the setup

[fireisredsir]

yeah im cool with that

[fireisredsir]

if i die tonight and it doesn't end up being enchant/scorp as the team then i would like to register my disagreement with italiano's suggestion of titus next

maybe ill reassess if I don't die, but right now that's what I'm feelin and wanted to put that out there

[fireisredsir]

we're just going off of one slot's solve and just rolling with it?

not really. enchant was the top initial choice for lim yesterday. we ended up on furtive instead, but furtive and enchant pair pretty well together anyway, so its not at all surprising that people moved on to enchant next

[fireisredsir]

hmm i kinda think scorp could be town here actually

[fireisredsir]

Geez, so only Noraa thinks like me, huh. I guess I’m just wrong then. Hmm

this post sounds kinda like musefishing and probably should not be responded to

[fireisredsir]

Strategically, we don't benefit from more discussion

i agree

are you good with voting now, then?

[fireisredsir]

yea i think enchant is dying no matter what and they probably just aren't posting cause they're scum and know that

i think they'd be laughing at us for being wrong if they're town here tbh

[fireisredsir]

lmao

[fireisredsir]

hm

[fireisredsir]

i have thoughts but im not sure if i should share them since titus has a point

[fireisredsir]

VOTE: scorpious

[fireisredsir]

really fun setup, great solve nancy/flea and great play overall muses! my guess for the muses was definitely off so you were hidden well imo

[fireisredsir]

as VT it was interesting bc i wanted to kind of be open to pushing in various directions to provide cover. the main reason i kept up a suspicion on galron/italiano was bc i thought there was a world with titus being a muse on that slot and i wanted to draw attention just in case

didn't end up mattering since the solve was correct and i wasn't on the list anyway, but it was fun trying to think of how best to position based on all the possibilities