Open 850: Democrabilities (Postgame)

[Cat.Jpeg]

I think it's too risky to eliminate twice based off day one tells unless someone is really sus.

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I tried doing math to see how likely we would lose if we did eliminate twice in a row but I forgot the fact we would get the flip result before we voted again so all my probabilities were wrong and I was sad.

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Also all the math was based off us voting out random people but I like to think we can guess at least a bit better than random so it was pointless anyway.

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Is RVS still going? I haven't gotten a chance to be a part of it yet so I'm just gonna VOTE: Dunnstral

[Cat.Jpeg]

This is our one and only chance at a no lim. Regular eliminations are mandatory

You're right. So do you think we should no eliminate here so we're not suck on evens?

I think we should use both eliminations. Information from flips is worth it, and the fewer living slots the more likely it is we get something useful out of the future PRs.

If we double eliminate we will never get to use the good PRs because the game will end night 2 or 3.

[Cat.Jpeg]

With the inform ability, the first vote of the day is what determines who is informed, not a majority. So the mafia could bulletproof one of themselves? (can they) and then vote for themselves as soon as day starts so no one knows the alignment. So if anyone votes quickly or for themselves if we get the inform ability (which I doubt we will anyway) that's very sus.

[Cat.Jpeg]

-Inform, the mafia chooses a player to gain bulletproof. The first vote of the day will tell the voted player what alignment the chosen player is at the start of the night phase.

So this is what I thought it meant, @mod could you tell us if this is correct:
Mafia selects a person to gait bulletproof. During the ability phase we vote on a player to receive the result. The voted player is then told if the bulletproof player is town or mafia.

Which means:
- We don't know who the bulletproof is while we are voting for who to receive the result
- Scum will probably try to get themselves voted as the informed player who receives the result, so they can then lie about it.
- The bulletproof and the informed (player who receives the investigation result) could end up being the same person, who would then get results on them self.
- if we get a confirmed innocent from this action, Mafia can't kill them at any point because they are bulletproof (I don't understand what is mean't by this thing of scum shooting the bulletproof twice, they are not a 1-shot bulletproof and the scum PM says "you can no longer kill the chosen player, ever" so scum shooting the bulletproof twice in a row doesn't break the protection and kill them, it would be a no-kill two nights in a row)

Ok I see

[Cat.Jpeg]

VOTE: No Kill Interested in seeing who is NK'd

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They are jumping around between things and don't have strong opinions. They hopped onto no elim without a reason.

Literally most of my posts are explaining why I don't think a double elim is a good idea, including my first post, I just forgot to vote for it because I didn't think it was something we wold vote for I though it would just happen when the ability phase ended. Other than that I misunderstood the inform ability and said I wanted to see who was NK'd. I haven't expressed any strong reads because I don't have any yet

[Cat.Jpeg]

Also, @Cat and Goldie, what are your thoughts on each other so far?

She's definitely trying to make you think she's town and she probably thinks you are town. I doubt that you two are a scumteam but individually for her im not sure yet. She is probably hyper aware of what I will read her for so it will be tricky, probably easier in day 2 tho.

[Cat.Jpeg]

Can confirm we are not a scumteam.
My read on her, like on everybody else, is pure null. I have some vibes from a couple of people, but no real evidence. Idk if it's just me, but it feels like this game has gotten off to a really slow start.

I wouldn't say a slow start because we are already on page 7 but I agree in that I have mostly null reads on everyone and there hasn't been much AI content.

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I only voted for you because no one else had and I didn't actually want to eliminate someone. I just wanted to vote in RVS that's all, it didn't have a purpose other than maybe a reaction because you still hadn't posted anything that helped me read you (most people hadn't tho). Looking back I didn't remember posting it till I saw it again and it's not something I would normally do and was kinda odd but I was using this site to procrastinate.

[Cat.Jpeg]

So currently with the game state I think we should go for a no-elimination,

because it's too risky to hit two townies, which is the most likely outcome.

Just want to point out that there is a 39.5% chance of hitting mafia today if we vote completely randomly with both votes

If we can correctly identify two town players before eliminations then that number jumps up to 48.9%

If you are also a town player and can correctly identify two other town players while removing yourself from the equation, that number jumps up to a 55.5% chance to be pushing one of the mafia today

While this is correct that the likelyhood of voting out a mafia today after voting twice is around 50% (and theres also a possiblity that we vote out the planned night kill which would also stop a 6 player melo) I still don't think it's worth it. If we vote once and don't get a mafia out it kinda sucks but its mostly fine, if we vote twice and fail, it puts us into a dire situation in which we will probably lose, we will only have night kill info from one kill which wont be very useful. (because they chose who to night kill in advance we wont be able to decide who would want that person dead because of what has happened in the game but only from meta analysis.)

Right now I townread Dunnstral even though I disagree with them.

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I dont think mafia would want to go against the most popular opinion that much (even if it will allow them to win quicker)

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Take note of these bloodthirsty vultures surrounding my still breathing body....do not become one yourself. Anyone who has played this game knows it's very rare mafia are voted day 1. I'm not mafia, I' very surprised that anyone voting me thinks I'm mafia, and no clue as to why.

and I can refute all of those baseless arguments. If I was scum with nothing to say, I wouldn't say that. The gamestate was stale and I commented on it. So what. It's a well known fact that town is eliminated day 1 in most games. I also have the added knowledge that I'm town. The most redundant of your arguments against me seems to imply that I was against using the double elimination just because I was the most popular vote. This is false. I always wanted to No Eliminate first, and stated that at the time. As for my outrage at being called scum, Titus' read had no basis or explanation. So yes I was baffled. As for not pushing my current reads, I really don't know what you mean. I've been consistent on voting No Eliminate, and I've also been open with my reads on players, even asking others to comment on them. So I did push there without being prodded.

In other words, get your murderous hands off me you greedy opportunist.

Yes I know I how I sound. I think it's warranted if you actually read the game though, and see how unfairly I'm being treated.

I am sure that town are smart enough not to condemn me here anyway, so have fun being left looking desperate and exposed.

I don't really like this response, furtive has been slightly different. Definitely not willing to vote for them yet.

The whole 'town is smart enough not to vote for me' is a blatant manipulation tactic and I dont agree that mafia wont get voted out on day one simply

because

it is day one, its less likely but definitely possible. (sometimes early reads can actually be better (not always) because as the game goes on it can get kinda muddled and the mafia can learn what to say to get positive reactions from town and you forget about the mistakes they made early on. Ppl base votes off of who they have become friends with or who is currently agreeing with them instead of of logic)

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I dont think mafia would want to go against the most popular opinion that much (even if it will allow them to win quicker)

Sorry I cant just say everything in one post but it Dunnstral is mafia and furtive flips green it will look pretty bad for them and Titus (& maybe but less so Radical Rat)
Im more confident on my Dunnstral town read (which isnt 100% anyway) than any Titus read tho.

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Greeting the game. Unforgiveable.

VOTE: MalcolmTucker

so we get 2 eliminations today. That's interesting. How about anyone who leads on town gets quickhammered afterwards?

VOTE: furtiveglance
How about anyone who suggests quickhammering gets quickhammered afterwards?

You're happy to lead on town then Radical Rat...you know the deal.

I saw all these posts as completely joking around. I was confused when I saw ppl taking the greeting the game vote and quickhammer thing seriously. Earlier when you asked 'is that so?' when furtive said they always wanted no elimination i typed up a post saying I thought they were joking also that it was only their 2nd post but decided against it because I didn't want to speak for furtive and also wanted to see what they would say.

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If it was actually a joke, then I apologize. I sometimes have difficulty discerning jokes from serious statements, as evidenced by well... This.

I do still think your reactions to pressure look very not good, but I will need to re-read and re-evaluate things with that in mind before making proper judgement, and I don't really have the energy for that tonight, so look forward to that tomorrow.


I do still 100% stand by using the elimination being the correct decision though, that's not affected by any of this

I see how furtives reactions might not look so good but I think this could be coming from an annoyed town.

[Cat.Jpeg]

We aren't going to get a good wagon in the time we have. I think it's best we just end the phase so we can move on from this argument and discuss reads.

I don't think we will get a turn around and an elimination today, I think its best if someone hammers so we can stop talking about if we should double eliminate or if something was a joke or not and get onto more helpful things.

[Cat.Jpeg]

I simply think that scum decided to put the kill first when they felt it would be the least harmful to themselves

Exactly, this is the only one that might benefit them. Tomorrow I feel like we will get watch, track or imprison, which I will have something to say abt depending on which one we get but i dont wanna say it in front of mafia

[Cat.Jpeg]

We aren't going to get a good wagon in the time we have. I think it's best we just end the phase so we can move on from this argument and discuss reads.

I don't think we will get a turn around and an elimination today, I think its best if someone hammers so we can stop talking about if we should double eliminate or if something was a joke or not and get onto more helpful things.

What makes these discussions not helpful? I think deciding to eliminate is a very important decision, and if someone presents a more compelling reason than simply being afraid of missing, I'd be happy to hammer a no lim. Can't happen if we don't talk about it though.

Likewise, the joke thing was a misconception that informed my scumread, and that's important to clear up, is it not?

I'm not saying those things arent important because they very much are but I dont feel like they help me read people. With the choice to doible eliminate the conversation felt stuck and circular and scum or town could be on either side imo (though you maybe get some stuff off it based on flips and its likely maybe that both scum were on the same side???). And the joke thing was important for you to clear up but personally it didnt change much for me. That point was kinda a miss because it was good it was talked about znd its not like you can ask in PMs. Not everything needs to be super alignment indicative but it is rough when nothing is.

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Also being afraid to miss is a very important reason. mis-lims is how town loses.

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Okay so I was thinking about if Furtive was scum, who would be their scumbuddy?
I think it would be pretty crazy if Dunnstral, RadicalRat, or Titus is their scumbuddy.
Malcolm Tucker I really dont think is because of 100 and 102 along with other posts
Flea I dont think is because of 209, now normally I would consider the possibility of them being a scumbuddy but who doesn't want to go down with furtive so they decide its better to add some pressure to distance themselves but not straight up scum read but this post and the reasons used really dont feel like a scum buddy interaction.
Alianna 196, slightly less sure but also dont think this is scumbuddy behaviour.
Lastly there's Goldfish who i feel could be a possible scumbuddy, the RVS vote for Furtive coulda been orchestrated. She also was the only one who put basically no pressure on furtive, I will admit tho, I myself didnt say very much against them.

Ofc this all only matters if furtive is scum, but I dont know if I want to vote them soon and find out so oh well.
I could spend 5 hrs doing this ^ for everyone so if we find one mafia we will instantly know the other (because my assumptions are definitely always right) but im tired and also i dont think doing this will be as clear cut for other people and things might change but i thought this was worth it in case the furtive wagon rolls on into elim phase.
Basically what im saying is if furtive is scum goldfish would prolly be a good vote, if goldfish is town i think furtive is too?

(also just in case i get night killed, which i feel like i wont, i dont think Goldfish would wanna kill me night 1 (and its okay for me to say this because they cant change their minds) though she could probably be persuaded idk)

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Okay so I was thinking about if Furtive was scum, who would be their scumbuddy?
I think it would be pretty crazy if Dunnstral, RadicalRat, or Titus is their scumbuddy.
Malcolm Tucker I really dont think is because of 100 and 102 along with other posts
Flea I dont think is because of 209, now normally I would consider the possibility of them being a scumbuddy but who doesn't want to go down with furtive so they decide its better to add some pressure to distance themselves but not straight up scum read but this post and the reasons used really dont feel like a scum buddy interaction.
Alianna 196, slightly less sure but also dont think this is scumbuddy behaviour.
Lastly there's Goldfish who i feel could be a possible scumbuddy, the RVS vote for Furtive coulda been orchestrated. She also was the only one who put basically no pressure on furtive, I will admit tho, I myself didnt say very much against them.

Ofc this all only matters if furtive is scum, but I dont know if I want to vote them soon and find out so oh well.
I could spend 5 hrs doing this ^ for everyone so if we find one mafia we will instantly know the other (because my assumptions are definitely always right) but im tired and also i dont think doing this will be as clear cut for other people and things might change but i thought this was worth it in case the furtive wagon rolls on into elim phase.
Basically what im saying is if furtive is scum goldfish would prolly be a good vote, if goldfish is town i think furtive is too?

(also just in case i get night killed, which i feel like i wont, i dont think Goldfish would wanna kill me night 1 (and its okay for me to say this because they cant change their minds) though she could probably be persuaded idk)

So the weird thing here for me is you're hunting associatives without a flip or even confidence in pre-flip.

Whats your read on Furtive currently? ELI5.

I think regardless of if we get a furtive flip that post was useful, this game has some interesting possiblities in which we can gain information without having to eliminate. It also helped me wrap my head around this confusing game. Idk what ELI5 means but right now I unapologetically town read furtive, its not a strong town read and if we get some actual reasons they are mafia other that 'being too defensive' (which yes can be scummy but town do it too, especially furtive) then i think their partner is goldfish.

[Cat.Jpeg]

The first two people in your list are the two who didnt have a vote at the end of the ability phase. Also you townread titus for having 'illogical/unwarranted/aggressive/scathing' posts but scumread RadicalRat for what sounds like the same thing. What's the difference between them?

[Cat.Jpeg]

Cat.Jpeg: Playing a safe game right now. Trying to look busy. This can come from town, just not usually. Crossreferencing their posting with Mewbie 2092 (our previous game together) makes me really uneasy. They're not playing in the same way at all. Obviously the atmosphere is different this game, but they seem a bit stiff/awkward here. I think it's nervous scum, the other explanation is they haven't settled into the game yet. which would be fair as it's been a bit hostile (myself included). but yeah. personality has completely changed since 2092. scumread.

You're relying way to much from meta from one game, in which I was friendly neighbour, not just a townie. This also feels like ur scumreading me just so ppl dont think we are a scumteam.

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Malcolm said if furtive was scum I looked like the most likely partner, theres also a vote for me. I am also one of the only ppl saying I think their town. Thats why i think they want to distance themselves.

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oh no. I phrased that wrong. I meant they were the only ppl not voting (for no elim or for u)

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@MalcolmTucker can you do a readlist? slightly hypocritical for me to ask since i havent done one but im working on it.

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they voted me based on their own mistake which they admitted, but then are clinging to scumreading me because my reaction was apparently 'weird'. great.

To address this point, and also Flea's request for more than "too defensive,"

It's just the defensiveness alone, it's the nature of the defense. Like, you start out with just blatant OMGUS, and only very recently started to branch out from that. It felt like you were more concerned with getting people off of you than onto scum, and that's a strange attitude for Town to have so early on with only a couple votes actually on you.

That, and the way you approached the no lim, framing analysis of a potential elimination as useless because both alignments vote both ways sometimes. Which is true, but if that really made analysis useless Mafia as a game wouldn't really work. Everyone else seemed to agree that it would be useful, just not worth the numbers disadvantage, which I think is

wrong,

but makes sense. Saying nothing matters and there's no useable information to be gleaned feels like an attempt to stoke apathy and discourage pressure and scumhunting.

I think regardless of if we get a furtive flip that post was useful, this game has some interesting possiblities in which we can gain information without having to eliminate. It also helped me wrap my head around this confusing game. Idk what ELI5 means but right now I unapologetically town read furtive, its not a strong town read and if we get some actual reasons they are mafia other that 'being too defensive' (which yes can be scummy but town do it too, especially furtive) then i think their partner is goldfish.
ELI5 is Educate me Like I'm 5.

You're still making associatives for some reason, so then you solve that I can see stands at Goldfish and Furtive.
Why goldfish?

It wasn't Flea who said they wanted more of a reason to scumread Furtive than 'too defensive'. It was me, there was a quote error so it looked different. (go back to the post and you can see it but I got rid of the error in this so you could see it was all Fleas post).
After your response I'm still not convinced there is a good reason to scumread furtive knowing-ish the way they play as town.

As for responding to flea. At the time I thought Furtive was probably town because of the post where I went and read everyone ISO's and thought no one could be scumbuddies with them other than goldfish (which i still didnt think was likely but the only non-surprising combination). Why goldfish? Process of elimination. Read the post. I now no longer think that because they just made a townblock together which would be a bold move. I'm also townreading goldfish, she couldve easily gotten me voted out just then if she was scum. Unless im NK'd pretty confident she's town because otherwise from a mafia perspective there would be negative incentive to say that. (unless she really wants to elim someone scumreading her scumbuddy or smt). It also felt genuine.

I will make a readlist but it will be rushed because i have a lot of stuff to do today

[Cat.Jpeg]

Goldfish

- For previously stated reasons

Furtive

- For previously stated reasons

Flea

- Just seems like faes trying to solve the game, not associated with anyone

Alianna

- From last game its clear I cant read you, I liked 147, good way to progress the game, recent readlist felt towny

Titus

- Since the start I didn't love how gung-ho you were about Double eliminating. Going after Alianna feels kinda random, sorry to hear that you're not feeling happy right now

Dunnstral

- Thought you were town because of you pushing double elim, thought it would be risky for scum to do, looking back that wasnt a great reason. A lot of your posts seem a bit manipulative. I dont think you using math was scummy at all but what was scummy was the math wasnt super positive yet you didnt question it at all.

Radical

Rat

- Feels like you nitpick things and your reasoning is shaky. Feels like your scumread reasons are manufactured. Posts (281, 123, 104, 318)

Malcolm Tucker

- I want to read your other games so I know what you are usually like. Theres nothing particularly scummy in your posts. Its perfect... too perfect. Null for now

[Cat.Jpeg]

Goldfish
What do you think of Cat? There is a cloud of suspicion around them. Also, do you like my readslist?

Consensus scumread appears to be Cat.Jpeg at the moment. I think Alianna is town

Ah yes if you tell people they scumread me then they will. No reasons required.
(I am aware I am being scumread by most? people but no one has connected that to an understandable reason imo)

Also sorry I havent been able to be super invested in this game.

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Goldfish where is the readslist?
And can people who aren't voting vote or explain why they refuse?

Idk who to vote for. I don't know what to think.
VOTE: RadicalRat because reasons in my readlist

[Cat.Jpeg]

Dunn might be scum here.

Go on

Scum!Dunn struggles with content and I saw you elsewhere.

VOTE: Titus

You know Elitelling is bad and this doesn't fit your usual logic for a good vote. You also can struggle with content as scum, and from what I can see you're floundering here.

Titus seems to be picking a person and then scumreading them for whatever they do. First Alianna, then Dunnstral.

[Cat.Jpeg]

Furtive asking. This game feeling stale.

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I wasnt sure enough to vote at the time of the readlist and im still not too sure

[Cat.Jpeg]

Goldfish

- For previously stated reasons

Furtive

- For previously stated reasons

Flea

- Just seems like faes trying to solve the game, not associated with anyone

Alianna

- From last game its clear I cant read you, I liked 147, good way to progress the game, recent readlist felt towny

Titus

- Since the start I didn't love how gung-ho you were about Double eliminating. Going after Alianna feels kinda random, sorry to hear that you're not feeling happy right now

Dunnstral

- Thought you were town because of you pushing double elim, thought it would be risky for scum to do, looking back that wasnt a great reason. A lot of your posts seem a bit manipulative. I dont think you using math was scummy at all but what was scummy was the math wasnt super positive yet you didnt question it at all.

Radical

Rat

- Feels like you nitpick things and your reasoning is shaky. Feels like your scumread reasons are manufactured. Posts (281, 123, 104, 318)

Malcolm Tucker

- I want to read your other games so I know what you are usually like. Theres nothing particularly scummy in your posts. Its perfect... too perfect. Null for now

I skimmed Newbie 2088, I now townlean on malcolm

[Cat.Jpeg]

I forget to vote a lot, other people also didnt vote with their read list.

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I know you're probably trying to read me better but this is so random. I just wasnt thinking about voting earlier and then I was reading back and did.

[Cat.Jpeg]

me, RR, and furtive in a triangle, nice

[Cat.Jpeg]

me, RR, and furtive in a triangle, nice

This is such a weird comment. Do you think it proves that we're all town? What's the point of commenting on this?

I thought it was mildly humorous. Sorry for being inactive today. Will post more tmr morning.

[Cat.Jpeg]

I'm moving my vote, so I'll give a quick scumcase on Alianna.

Initial posting is some mech talk, NAI in my book.

146 and 147 are the first posts that catch my eye - asking questions is fine, it's just easy for scum to do in order to look busy.

153 gives blanket null reads on everyone. But then 177 agrees with my crazed posting about Titus being 'incredibly scummy'.

299 is a big readslist with 2 scumreads. One is Titus - who they've been consistent with (e.g. 196), but the other one is me. They say we're both sus but not paired, which feels like too much of a 'gimme' at that point in the game - to point out how Titus and I clearly weren't paired scum.

363 I think is Alianna's scummiest post so far. I don't like the phrase "This is explicitly not an OMGUS vote". It smacks of self-awareness.

443 is unlikely to come from town. I don't like it at all because it seems to imply second thoughts on their scumread of Titus, but Alianna doesn't unvote. 445 is sitting on the fence and self-justifying.

(I hope I'm not scumreading town!Alianna 2 games running...)

UNVOTE: Radical Rat

VOTE: Alianna

I think Alianna is an okay vote for today but I don’t think 363 is a scummy post. I think it’s also a bit weird you townread the early posts before but now scum read them. I will say I don’t like 443 but a lot of the points in this are flimsy like you already decided alianna was scum and we’re just finding things to affirm that. I think the case on Alianna is a lot smaller than you are pretending it is.

[Cat.Jpeg]

I think i lean voting alianna over titus however If i were to join the alianna wagon that would leave alianna themselves as the decider. Wonder who they would vote for?
I would like a majority vote. If goldfish left the titus wagon they would still be eliminated as per the rules. hmm. I will let it ride

[Cat.Jpeg]

I don't do D1 associatives.

you, yourself dont associate with anyone or that you dont see value in analysing day 1 associatives. I dissagree if it is the latter.

[Cat.Jpeg]

Cat.jpeg is also a top scum read for me at the moment.

why?

[Cat.Jpeg]

I think i lean voting alianna over titus however If i were to join the alianna wagon that would leave alianna themselves as the decider. Wonder who they would vote for?
I would like a majority vote. If goldfish left the titus wagon they would still be eliminated as per the rules. hmm. I will let it ride

Actually if someone left the titus wagon then joined alianna it could still change. I focused on goldfish because i know she might be awake.

[Cat.Jpeg]

UNVOTE:
Having second thoughts for the one hundred and second time, may or may not have found something fishy, need to reread some stuff, but it’s way too late to do that rn. May put this back later.

If alianna was scum she literally just sacrificed herself, if she didnt unvote she would be safe for today by now. (assuming flea would still vote titus) Unless she made a huge blunder or they are a team who would rather keep titus alive no way this came from scum

[Cat.Jpeg]

at this point as we have no competing wagon which would indicate to me a red flip.

Oh and Alianna, your turn to be bitten by The Flea tomorrow.

Lacking Logic, u literally made this post right after the VC
(which did have a mistake of alianna still voting titus)

[Cat.Jpeg]

Anyway alianna like conftown or team with titus which i doubt, no one change their vote to them.

[Cat.Jpeg]

If alianna gets Nk'd im gonna be very mad, enough posting from me. Not hammering titus because i cant post an intent and still hoping you all wake up in the middle of the night to vote rr with me :)

[Cat.Jpeg]

also flea looking kinda sus now ngl

[Cat.Jpeg]

My vote is still on Titus because I think she and RR are the most likely here to flip scum and her wagon has more support. I wouldn’t mind voting for either and might still consider switching in the next 6 hours (won’t be on again until the deadline has passed, if I’m still alive).

because this, which seems genuine

[Cat.Jpeg]

UNVOTE:
Having second thoughts for the one hundred and second time, may or may not have found something fishy, need to reread some stuff, but it’s way too late to do that rn. May put this back later.

If alianna was scum she literally just sacrificed herself, if she didnt unvote she would be safe for today by now. (assuming flea would still vote titus) Unless she made a huge blunder or they are a team who would rather keep titus alive no way this came from scum

Eh I dunno, if Titus comes back town here you'd wager Alianna is the favourite for elimination tomorrow depending on what happens overnight. Could have been Alianna panicking to a degree the vote seemed too obvious, they weren't at E-1 yet I don't think when they unvoted.

Scum don't want to appear too obvious on D1 after all

. Also unless I'm readingly wrongly did the unvote not come before the most recent vote for Titus?

Would Scum Alianna risk getting eliminated for 'not looking to obvious'
When alianna made the post Titus was at e-1 and Alianna was at e-2. (majority is not needed for an elim though and if no one voted until the deadline titus would be voted out).
As scum she would have absolutely no reason to unvote, at all. (unless partners as mentioned earlier but i doubt it)

[Cat.Jpeg]

Flea voting for Titus slightly dampens my townread there. I think Goldfish is the most town for me.

I would like to inform Goldfish.

VOTE: Goldfish

I'd generally agree here. There's a part of me that's slightly hesitant though because Goldfish was ultimately on a town wagon I thought was quite bad...but I get not everyone on said wagon is going to be scum and players do make mistakes. Will put my vote on Goldfish for now, but I am open to alternative ideas/suggestions if anyone has them. However, struggling to think of too many players I'm entirely confident on here to be informed.

VOTE: Goldfish

Guys lets not get hasty, the mafia probably have their NK on who they think will get informed and will be trying to get that person voted. So I reckon goldfish might be dying soon, other possibilities are malcolm and flea. I was originally going to sit back and watch anyone overly eager to get someone informed but if I wait for everyone to give their opinion goldfish will probably be voted by then. I would rather we vote furtive but ive been considering the possibility that the scumread on titus then the turnaround might have been orchestrated for town cred but avoid being acused of TMI but i will need to read some stuff again to determine if that seems likely. We could also vote me :)

Also its kinda interesting that we got inform, i was not expecting that.

[Cat.Jpeg]

true. town actually have some good abilities in this setup, I'm looking forward to Track and Watch if scum are taking requests :)

I personally want imprison, sure we dont get a definite answer but i think it would be more fun if we hit something, also slightly more likely. Also track will get much more op if only one mafia is left, so will imprison but less so (because if there are 2 scum and they know we are more sus of one they will make the other do the kill.) Watch will just be really good with less people alive (mafia will expect that we watch most townread player and so they wont kill them, wifom ensues)

[Cat.Jpeg]

I assumed Goldfish would be informed after the inform phase but before the main vote to kill phase.

This is kind of a mod question - when is the information given to the voted player in the inform phase?

it says in the setup, at the start of the next nightphase. otherwise really unfair to the mafia and you might as well just announce the bulletproof to everyone (well there is the possibility of goldfish being mafia and lying but i dont think so)

[Cat.Jpeg]

Flea voting for Titus slightly dampens my townread there. I think Goldfish is the most town for me.

I would like to inform Goldfish.

VOTE: Goldfish

I'd generally agree here. There's a part of me that's slightly hesitant though because Goldfish was ultimately on a town wagon I thought was quite bad...but I get not everyone on said wagon is going to be scum and players do make mistakes. Will put my vote on Goldfish for now, but I am open to alternative ideas/suggestions if anyone has them. However, struggling to think of too many players I'm entirely confident on here to be informed.

VOTE: Goldfish

Guys lets not get hasty, the mafia probably have their NK on who they think will get informed and will be trying to get that person voted. So I reckon goldfish might be dying soon, other possibilities are malcolm and flea. I was originally going to sit back and watch anyone overly eager to get someone informed but if I wait for everyone to give their opinion goldfish will probably be voted by then.

I would rather we vote furtive

but ive been considering the possibility that the scumread on titus then the turnaround might have been orchestrated for town cred but avoid being acused of TMI but i will need to read some stuff again to determine if that seems likely. We could also vote me :)

Also its kinda interesting that we got inform, i was not expecting that.

Surely Furtive would also be at risk of elimination in the night phase if they are town though? If they aren't mafia then they are making an active effort to solve and figure out the game here. I don't think their elimination (if not mafia) is any less likely than that of myself/Goldfish/Flea here.

Remember, it's not as if mafia knew overnight who we'd potentially want to inform

- so it would quite frankly just be complete coincidence if they happen to hit Goldfish in the night, to give an example. And ultimately I'm not sure I'd want to go for a less trusted player because there's then surely a greater chance that said player ends up turning out to be mafia.

I take your point re a possible Furtive turnaround, it's something I've very much not ruled out...but then if that's your concern, surely you'd be wary to give Furtive the inform ability?

Responding to bold. I think they would base if off of who they though would be the most likely to get informed, which I doubt is furtive. Yes furtive is trying to solve and poses a threat but as mafia wouldnt you try to stop the chance of a definitively confirmed immortal townie and leave the flip-floppy speculators for another day.

[Cat.Jpeg]

true, but honestly if that happened i would be inclined to believe them, it would be slightly worse. Also I just thought of something, what if bulletproof is actually the most scummy-looking town and mafia are banking on them getting eliminated today, but if they dont get eliminated it will be especially useful to town because we dont just get confirmation of a town read we already had. more wifom

[Cat.Jpeg]

I find it humorous that because Titus was NK'd it's almost like we didn't eliminate twice. They would hate that. Im going to look at the game again with the knowledge 2 people knew Titus was the nightkill. The final vote count has me, furtive, malcolm, and alianna not voting titus but i dont think thats too useful because i think the mafia (at least one of them) ended up voting titus in the end to avoid getting voted themselves (rr or dunnstral). Also once again I townlean alianna for how absurd it was for them to unvote on Titus. Early in the game though might yeild more information.

[Cat.Jpeg]

I thought inform would be really OP but in order from most impactful to least the mafia can: get the BP elimmed, get one of the mafia informed, NK the informed, get the informed elimmed (highly unlikely but possible), or get the BP to be informed so they just have a townread of themselves (which if one of the mafia were informed they would probably pretend this is what had happened or give a townread of their partner), to soften the blow to them.

[Cat.Jpeg]

Why would they hate that?

We're at evens right now.

She was very opposed to skipping elim and I thought she would hate the fact that what happened was like skipping elim twice. Although looking back she wanted VCA data which we still got so nvm.

[Cat.Jpeg]

It's fundamentally a leap in logic for me though to suggest Goldfish is the one who's likely to get shot. They look very townie to me and I think their analysis/posts have been solid, but I wouldn't say they've necessarily been leading the town in a way I think Furtive is trying to do, or in the way Titus briefly tried to do D1 when they strongly pushed for going for two kills. If Furtive is town, for example, they could potentially be in trouble. If scum somehow agree with you Alianna looks townie, they could have been the target...albeit I imagine that's unlikely. If someone's had a strong push so far that's not gotten a lot of attention they could be targeted. It's all hypothetical. Either way I reckon we need to be giving this inform power to a strong, consensus townread here because the alternative - where we hand it to someone we acknowledge could be scum - is far too risky.

VOTE: Dunnstral

This is the best vote. You guys might not like it, but it's true. Mafia are very unlikely to have confirmed my alignment

It also makes things a lot simpler. All you have to do is figure out whether I am town or not. Whereas a vote for Goldfish means we need to figure out both if goldfish is town, and if furtive/malcolm/whoever are mafia trying to push it onto the townie who is also the bp,

Dunnstral - The thing is what I said about them maybe BP'ing the person they thought would get eliminated is also a possibility, although unlikely it still means you're a worse candidate than furtive and me. We also very unlikely to get our alignment confirmed but are also are unlikely to be eliminated today. Also ur sus.

Malcolm if you think furtive is at risk of being NK because of how much they are leading town you could always vote for me :) also anyone we vote for we should acknowledge they could be scum. We havent gotten any solid info this game, yet. I do think goldfish is town though. in 578 you said we shouldnt be giving it to anyone who has been heavily suspected except goldfish has been, by RR.
As for the thing before about furtives turnaround on Titus being orchestrated I don't think so. I had forgotten the specific tone of them and after looking back I doubt they were forced. The changed opinion on titus looks like it happened really quickly but it checks out with the fact they waited to give a readlist because they were putting effort into reading everyones iso's.

[Cat.Jpeg]

I dont think goldfish is a bad vote to be informed i just think furtive or i are better and knowing who the BP is would be too useful to pick someone who might die. This game is giving me a headache with thinking about who we are going to elim after the ability phase (i do want it to be rr or Dunn just not sure who). Im not even kidding i genuinely have a headache right now. Dunnstral and Alianna who do you scumread?

[Cat.Jpeg]

Although a part of me does wonder if this is a bit bold from scum Dunn? I don't know, I guess if we have an Alianna/Dunn team (which would be my best bet at the moment), it would be feasible for one of the two of them to want to push receiving the inform role just to give a big push and see what happens.

Dunnstral and Radical Rat have both done bold things in day 2. I would normally read that as town but with the fact that they know they are likely to be eliminated anyway if they played it safe I dont think any 'too bold' reasons should be used today.

[Cat.Jpeg]

I don’t townread Dunn anymore. Note to self - preflip associatives are a bad idea.

I think we all need to rethink things for today,

Of your scumpool I think Alianna and RR are possible scum, but not together, and I townlean Dunnstral

Goldfish you have said you townread dunnstral 3 or 4 times but I cant find where you explained why. Please explain or link to a post if i missed it.
Also Alianna can you explain your post too?

[Cat.Jpeg]

, Mafia also cannot lie without outing themselves unless they "clear" themselves.

What do you mean? mafia can lie about someone who isnt them being BP'd because mafia could just not kill the person they said and it would seem like they were BP'd. How would that out the mafia.

[Cat.Jpeg]

No. I will definitely vote Goldfish to avoid wasting the ability and if its clear that you won't consider someone else but right now I don't think its the best thing to do.

[Cat.Jpeg]

Votecount 2.0.1

Spoiler: Cake (Large image)

The cake is a lie.

[Cat.Jpeg]

Why should we vote for someone who's town with an

eh

chance of dying when we could vote for town who's less likely to die (based off yesterday scum probably would not want to kill me because im not a consensus townread and other more townread people have the same scumreads that i do so it's not like they would target me specifically if I am right, because of this i will probably also not just get a result on myself which would be unfavourable)

This is the last time I will push for this unless people have questions. If not enough people are swayed I will succumb and vote for Goldfish.
VOTE: Cat.Jpeg

[Cat.Jpeg]

In the scenario that the mafia have BP'd someone they will try and get elimmed today (probably RR, Alianna, or Dunnstral), because the fact that the mafia might have given the BP to them even though they are being scumread has been acknowledged then if they are scum they can pretend that is what happened. Also it would be stupid to eliminate the person we informed and i dont want to rule out any of these 3 from elimination.

In the more likely scenario that mafia has chosen to BP a consensus townread because it will be the least useful to town once we find out, then they know that person wont get voted out and will survive to the last day. In that case mafia probably BP'd somebody who they believe they can convince to vote with them. Which is why if goldfish is BP i will be more sus of dunnstral and maybe RR (at the end of day one rr was the only person goldfish gave no read on or mentioned). And i think goldfish is likely to be BP because shes the most widely townread and also hasn't expressed as strong opinions or scumreads as other widely townread people.

But wait if goldfish is the BP that means shes also not the NK so voting her is fine? Im confusing myself. While i think goldfish is most likely to be BP its a 40% chance and the other 60% is split (not exactly evenly) between everyone else so i think shes most likely but still not likely. Whatever. Me being a better vote still makes sense (under the conditions you think im town). Vote Cat 2022.

[Cat.Jpeg]

@golfish why do you townread Dunnstral?

[Cat.Jpeg]

@goldfish*

[Cat.Jpeg]

Why should we vote for someone who's town with an

eh

chance of dying when we could vote for town who's less likely to die (based off yesterday scum probably would not want to kill me because im not a consensus townread and other more townread people have the same scumreads that i do so it's not like they would target me specifically if I am right, because of this i will probably also not just get a result on myself which would be unfavourable)

This is the last time I will push for this unless people have questions. If not enough people are swayed I will succumb and vote for Goldfish.
VOTE: Cat.Jpeg

Cat, if you're Town, just vote Alianna. All your same logic applies, except that Alianna's less likely to be scum.

We should stop and think this through.

As I mentioned just before the end of D1, scum would have Not wanted Titus to be eliminated. While this doesn't 100% clear her wagon, it's probably safe to assume that at least one scum would have been trying to redirect, and Titus's main counter wagon was Alianna, which saw moderate success, albeit not enough. From this, it's a pretty safe bet that Alianna is Town, and since we know she's been a contentious slot, it's more likely that scum have her lined up for elimination than nightkill.

VOTE: Alianna

I don't like 'If you are town do this' at all, not one bit

In your first post voting for alianna you come to the conclusion she is town because at least one of the scum would try and redirect from titus, the NK, and alianna was the counter wagon. The only thing is if she was scum then elimming the NK would be better than eliminating your scumbuddy. In the case that alianna was scum then her and her scumbuddy couldve started a wagon on someone else but at that point in the game it wouldve looked very suspicious and would out her partner. So i dont like your reasoning for townreading her. I still townlean her but solely for the reason that she unvoted titus which I might have been too confident of at the time but I still think holds. I think furtives reason for being sus of alianna simply because she was a conterwagon to town is bad.
I'm considering voting alianna because shes unlikely to be NK and I dont want to elim her but besides the unvote the rest of her posts I am null on. Im also sus of you but if alianna is town and you arent paired with her then i dont see why scum you is pushing for her unless she actually is the NK or you just want to say 'I told you so' if goldfish is killed. flea seems to have townread you for it so maybe you anticipated that. idk

I dont think malcom and furtive are paired because malcolm was one of the first to sus furtive and I also think furtive is town in general. Im not so sure about malcolm, especially if alianna is town.

[Cat.Jpeg]

I think rr is. Ive noticed that all the people who have agreed on the alianna/dunnstral/RR scumpool all have slightly different preferences for who. I think we should discuss a bit more today before we elim.

[Cat.Jpeg]

@Dunnstral can you give a readlist and explian some of your thought process? I feel like most of your posts are about if we should double elim or not or defending your vote on Titus. I don't scumread you for voting Titus and originally to me her posts looked very scummy but I had more of a gut feeling that she was town, I get why you voted her though. What I do scumread you for is the lack of solve-driven input from you and the lack of expressing any townreads.

[Cat.Jpeg]

As for thought process, what do you want to know?

Why do you read each person that way?

[Cat.Jpeg]

My brain is kinda frazzled right now but even though I disagree with a lot of what furtive says I think they are town. Its mostly going off vibes but I don't think scum would play like this. Malcolm seems a lot more calculated and could be partnered RR. I havent read enough to see if i think they look like a pair but I think malcolm townreads them.

[Cat.Jpeg]

On second thought, the fact that your thoughts have been so all-over-the-place today is probably town-indicative.

UNVOTE:

I'll see myself out now.

Why do I do this to myself?

I felt like the Furtive wagon developed incredibly quickly, but not sure I'm keen on Alianna then jumping off the wagon so soon again, strikes me as potentially panicky scum not wanting to be responsible for a miselim if Furtive does come back town if/when they get put out.

Their reasoning here that Furtive's thoughts are all over the place...doesn't exactly strike me as completely true either? I think Furtive's been open to other ideas within their PoE but I don't exactly think their thoughts have been incredibly contradictory for the most part, they have been pretty clear on where they've sided on most major issues in the game.

No, I townread Alianna for this. Scum would probably plan where they wanted to push and not do this. To me it just seems like Alianna's actually thinking about the game.

[Cat.Jpeg]

You have scumcred in this game for a few reasons:
1) Suspicious nature (your fault, happens every game)
2) Counterwagon to town d1 (who was scumreading you hard)
3) I could only think of 2 reasons but wanted to use rule of three for persuasion.

This is actually 0 reasons
1) it happens every game therefore NAI
2) I don't think placing importance on this is too useful until we get more flips, 'counterwagon to town = scum' is just bad
3) Well there was never a reason here

I still townread you and don't want to vote for you today, I think there is at least one scum on your wagon right now, some of what you say does seem pretty scummy at face value though

VOTE: RadicalRat
I think i'm too stingy with my vote normally, will make scumcase tmr

[Cat.Jpeg]

I think we should hold conversation about what scum may or should do with each ability and their relative utility until AFTER the ability shows up. Let scum figure out their own strategies

I didn't ever like this post but didn't say anything because I thought it made sense at the time. Scum probably thought of and discussed all the possibilities without town and this post just silenced town from also being aware of possibilities. I was kinda shocked when the inform ability came and then I realised it wasnt actually as op as i though when we started discussing it and all the ways scum could minimise the town help. The scum had clearly already thought of that when they picked it though.

"It's unlikely to hit Mafia D1, therefore I'm Town" sure is one of the defenses ever

This was the first reading of someone that you did, although it still wasnt direct sus, pretty lowhanging fruit that scum could easily jump on to. Im not saying this makes you scum im just saying it doesnt appear townie nor does any of your other reads. The game did get off to a slow start though.

Spoiler:

... Somehow I thought deadline was longer. Guess the no lim folks win then.

To update, I still feel like furtive is being defensive to a weird degree, especially given the relatively light pressure he's been under, and pretty much all of their actual arguments look rather disingenuous.

Beyond that, probably either Cat or Goldfish, but I'm] not sure which.

Fairly confident in saying there's at least one scum in that group, even if furtive does flip green.

You gave no reasoning for why Goldfish and I had one scum in us, I scum read people when they don't explain their thought process because to me thats really where you can try and tell if someones coming from a scum or town perspective. Flea and malcolm had already said things about me immediately prior to this, in response to me looking at furtive associates, but they didnt directly scumread me and it looks like you just saw that and went with it

Spoiler:

Radical Rat, your thoughts on players besides me are just "Cat/Goldfish could be scum, maybe?"

For me it's the other way around, by the way. People's pushes on me seem rather disingenuous, and I've been defensive as a result of people being unnecessarily offensive.

My position is a pretty strange one to be in, and I'm not sure how to go about it. 3 people seem to have it locked into their heads that I'm scum, and everything I say seems to just confirm that for them. I'm trying to give reads and play the game normally, but If I'm constantly having to defend senseless pushes on me, I'll be a bit busy with that.

Oh no, that wasn't a full readslist or anything, just my current scumpool.

Actual readslist would look something like this:

Flea, Dunnstral
Malcolm, Titus
Alianna
Cat, Goldfish, furtive

Once again no explination, at all. Well you had given some for furtive earlier but nothing for anyone else. this readlist felt very purposefully ambiguous. Also noting the mild townread on malcolm, this was when i first considered you might be paired. Maybe you could retrospectively explain some of these?

Spoiler:

VOTE: Titus

I think this needs to happen though. Both the Alianna and Dunnstral pushes were based on things that are just objectively not true, and I'm not buying the "I'm the only competent player in the game" act, despite sharing her frustration with the no lim D1.

In post 355 you say that you are confident enough furtive is scum to townread titus inversely. Then when you come back it feels like you realise that the nk might be elimmed and you dont want to look scummy for being so against it so you say that the Alianna then Dunnstral push was bad (earlier post) then wait a bit and vote.

We should stop and think this through.

As I mentioned just before the end of D1, scum would have Not wanted Titus to be eliminated. While this doesn't 100% clear her wagon, it's probably safe to assume that at least one scum would have been trying to redirect, and Titus's main counter wagon was Alianna, which saw moderate success, albeit not enough. From this, it's a pretty safe bet that Alianna is Town, and since we know she's been a contentious slot, it's more likely that scum have her lined up for elimination than nightkill.

VOTE: Alianna

Also feels like you're trying to pocket alianna while also looking 'too bold' to be scum

Spoiler:

But yes, you are correct in that it implies at least one scum in you/Malcom.

We all know you are more sus of furtive than malcolm and saying this means you can seperate yourself from malcolm without ever having to vote for them. Im not 100% that if you are scum then this is the pair but it makes the most sense to me

[Cat.Jpeg]

I have things to say that must wait until tomorrow.

Will you give us any hints?

Suffice to say, I have opinions about why the Inform was chosen, and who might have been BPed, but I don't want to elaborate any further on that until we actually get the information. Otherwise, in the hypothetical scenario that you turn out to be scum, you could tailor your answers to either match or counter my expectations, and then the analysis wouldn't be useful anymore

Ok this is meaningless. Does anyone understand or value this?

I think i might get what they are hinting at but they should have just said the whole thing or never brought it up. Maybe they want to use this so that people keep them alive until tomorrow so we hear what they think.

[Cat.Jpeg]

Ah theres 6 hours left and the plurality is only 2 votes

[Cat.Jpeg]

Ah theres 6 hours left and the plurality is only 2 votes

I was going to throw a vote onto RR and make it three, but Dunn's vote has confused me. I think you're town, so I'd like to hear your promised scumcase.

Scumcase was 767

[Cat.Jpeg]

Why not say your point about the inform ability now?

[Cat.Jpeg]

can't hurt

[Cat.Jpeg]

I'm delighted to inform you all that Malcomtucker is aligned with the town.

I don't know if I trust this.

[Cat.Jpeg]

@Goldie and anyone else who hasn’t voiced an answer to this yet

Who do you think is the scumteam?

We should decide who we are eliming before we decide who to track.
I townread you and furtive. I'm sus of dunnstral as an individual but don't see who their partner could be. That leaves Goldfish and Malcolm as absurd as that might sound. I think I want to eliminate goldfish because she's scum and in the case she isnt scum she's probably the NK so its not an instant loss. I know she would not shy away from trying to get herself informed and pulling something like this as scum.

I feel as though they planned to get Goldfish informed and pocket Furtive and have goldfish say that Malcolm is the Bulletproof. I think they made someone else, a real townie, the actual bulletproof though just in case goldfish wasnt informed. This is a bit of a conspiracy theory and I'll read some stuff before I commit to this.

VOTE: Malcolm

[Cat.Jpeg]

Who do the players voting for Goldfish think will die during the night?

I think Flea, unless they are scum.

Hm, interesting.

[Cat.Jpeg]

Goldfish could also be paired with Dunnstal, they hardly mention each other in their isos and they both have townleans on each other. Also Goldfish has townleaned/townread everyone alive right now

[Cat.Jpeg]

Intent to hammer

, I don't mind being conf town.

[Cat.Jpeg]

right now to win mafia has to avoid elimming either of themselves or their NK. Although if we elim the NK track won't give an 100% clear. It sucks we have even people. We need to avoid hasty voting and look at the game with fresh eyes. I guess its not that bad we have even people because if one town does vote another scum can't instantly hammer by themselves. We will need all town on a wagon to vote out a mafia unless one of them sacrifices the other, which i feel scum would be hesitant to do unless town thought the pair was unlikely and it was looking inevitable.

[Cat.Jpeg]

Is Cat planning to hammer? Seems like nobody has any objections to this going through.

I wanted Goldfish to say something before I did, I also needed to sleep.

[Cat.Jpeg]

If Goldfish is mafia then she knew we would'nt track her though. If she aint mafia then she's almost definitely the NK. If she's town we get a Malcolm clear too. I think shes the best vote because it's likely shes mafia and im not sure enough about everyone else to risk the game (except I still townread furtive and strongly townread Alianna). Also Furtive and Dunnstral pls unvote, if you are town (and at least one of you must be) you're putting each other at e-1 in a way (because if another town votes one of you then mafia can just jump on and we will lose)

[Cat.Jpeg]

I know you have be scumreading Furtive for a long time but I don't see what makes you so confident they are scum. You have hinted you think I'm their partner but im not so I just dont see who they could be partnered with, except Goldfish.

[Cat.Jpeg]

If Goldfish is mafia then she knew we would'nt track her though. If she aint mafia then she's almost definitely the NK. If she's town we get a Malcolm clear too. I think shes the best vote because it's likely shes mafia and im not sure enough about everyone else to risk the game (except I still townread furtive and strongly townread Alianna). Also Furtive and Dunnstral pls unvote, if you are town (and at least one of you must be) you're putting each other at e-1 in a way (because if another town votes one of you then mafia can just jump on and we will lose)

Neither player was functionally at E-1 at that point. Assuming TvS, the townie already has a scum voting for them and the scum isn't going to vote themself.

Well I was assuming TvT, should have not said 'at least one' though.
I think furtive is town. The only person they could be paired with is Goldfish anyway.
VOTE: Goldfish

[Cat.Jpeg]

Legitimately right now I don't have any idea who the scum is

Who is in your scumpool though. Do you have any conf towns besides malcolm?

[Cat.Jpeg]

Okay so this would be a lot easier if you guys knew I was town but this is why we should vote Goldfish

Under the assumption that:
- I am town (I obviously have logic that involves me being town)
- Alianna is town (I not only think she's town individually but don't see her paired with anyone either)
- For Malcolm to be scum Goldfish must be scum (because she would be lying about inform)
- Furtive and Dunnstral are not paired (duh)

No one can be paired with Malcolm besides Goldfish.
If either Dunnstral or Furtive is scum then Goldfish also is because she's the only one left they can be paired with.

[Cat.Jpeg]

Please unvote Alianna most of your possibilities have Goldfish as scum. Why are you voting furtive

[Cat.Jpeg]

I TOLD YOU SO
I'm not angry, just disappointed
GG Goldfish and Malcolm, who did you actually bulletproof.