Open 850: Democrabilities (Postgame)

[Dunnstral]

My recommendation is to play fast and loose with votes and get two wagons going asap.

What does this mean and how does it help us?

[Dunnstral]

My recommendation is to play fast and loose with votes and get two wagons going asap.

What does this mean and how does it help us?

For scum, the odds of avoiding two wagons is hard. We can drive two people up and the choices made will be extremely useful in the future. That's the whole point of VCA.

We get two wagons, flip one. Look at the result and then decide if we want to flip the other one. The positions people take should be invaluable.

I believe the only confirmed innocent is from the inform action, which gives a permanent no nightkill to the recipient (I asked the mod, so I'm like 95% sure I get this.)

But that is just normal play, right? How does rushing through the eliminations benefit us?

Which is the end anyway because we can’t no-vote.

We can no-eliminate on the current elimination (the additional effect phase one) but not on the regular elimination.

Bad idea. The game starts with 12 players so that we end up on odds with the extra elim.

[Dunnstral]

12 players? There’s only 9.

You're right... not sure why I said 12.

The only ways to stop the kill are the inform bulletproof and the imprison action

I still think it is better to eliminate twice today and then chance having to no eliminate later down the line. This also stops mafia from shooting at the informed player twice later with no consequence.

[Dunnstral]

My understanding of the rules is the N1 kill has already been submitted, as each one is submitted a night in advance.

All the more reason to double eliminate today

[Dunnstral]

My understanding of the rules is the N1 kill has already been submitted, as each one is submitted a night in advance.

All the more reason to double eliminate today

I'm not sure I follow, how does kill being presubmitted mean we should double eliminate

If we're wrong and vote out a town player but it's who the mafia submitted in advance then a kill is still denied

[Dunnstral]

This is our one and only chance at a no lim. Regular eliminations are mandatory

You're right. So do you think we should no eliminate here so we're not suck on evens?

[Dunnstral]

This also stops mafia from shooting at the informed player twice later with no consequence.

I'm going to point back to this

[Dunnstral]

This also stops mafia from shooting at the informed player twice later with no consequence.

I don't understand what you mean here. The only situation in which they would shoot the same slot twice is if we used Imprison, and they didn't change their minds on the kill the next night. But I don't see what double eliminating today has to do with that.

Not using the double elim lets the mafia shoot at the imprisoned person twice and bring the game to evens, which we then can't fix. So at the end we end up with 4 person alive and the clear is dead

[Dunnstral]

Let me give an example to counter Flea above:

Day 1/night 1 no elim and then elim:
9 -> 1:1 -> 7
Day 2/night 2 imprison is used and fails:
7 -> 1:1 -> 5
Day 3/night 3 mafia makes a player bulletproof and shoots at them:
5 -> 1:0 > 4
Day 4/night 4:
4 -> 1:1 > 2

-Inform

, the mafia chooses a player to gain bulletproof. The first vote of the day will tell the voted player what alignment the chosen player is at the start of the night phase.

[Dunnstral]

You're wrong, we are talking about what we're dealing with today, which is whether to eliminate today or not. I argued that mafia can no-kill if we no-elim, essentially putting the ball in their court. The opposing argument seems to be that we have more info if we wait for later to eliminate.

[Dunnstral]

VOTE: Cat.Jpeg

I can only realistically vote for players who are already voting to no-elim if I want to get an elimination. This is the scummiest player doing so.

[Dunnstral]

They are jumping around between things and don't have strong opinions. They hopped onto no elim without a reason.

[Dunnstral]

That said I don't like post 82 though, it feels odd, and not like something cat would normally do. It's not bad enough by itself for me to vote her but it seems strange.

Doesn't really make sense then because they were also talking about no eliminating before the vote.

[Dunnstral]

I don't really know what to say at the moment, I'm waiting for someone to hammer No Eliminate. Not really sure why I'm the other option, hence my wariness of RR and Titus which I mentioned before. Notably they didn't engage with that, Radical Rat preferred to talk mech. Go figure.

We're still going to have to vote someone after this. Who should that player be?

[Dunnstral]

Acting like the only choices are you or no eliminate is disingenuous

[Dunnstral]

Acting like the only choices are you or no eliminate is disingenuous

1) To suggest I am acting disingenously is very offensive and slander. I am pointing out the situation, which is that I am the only player with any votes. So a pivot isn't gonna happen now, even if I wanted one.
2) I don't want to eliminate. For the very simple reason that town always get voted day 1.

There is going to be an elimination regardless. If we no eliminate here, we still have to eliminate today. Putting it off won't make it go away, and you're likely still going to be voted for by Radical Rat and Titus.

It's not slander. Saying the pivot won't happen and so you have no choice but to no eliminate

is

disingenuous. If you changed your mind, we could probably eliminate somebody else.

[Dunnstral]

So currently with the game state I think we should go for a no-elimination,

because it's too risky to hit two townies, which is the most likely outcome.

Just want to point out that there is a 39.5% chance of hitting mafia today if we vote completely randomly with both votes

If we can correctly identify two town players before eliminations then that number jumps up to 48.9%

If you are also a town player and can correctly identify two other town players while removing yourself from the equation, that number jumps up to a 55.5% chance to be pushing one of the mafia today

[Dunnstral]

So currently with the game state I think we should go for a no-elimination,

because it's too risky to hit two townies, which is the most likely outcome.

Just want to point out that there is a 39.5% chance of hitting mafia today if we vote completely randomly with both votes

If we can correctly identify two town players before eliminations then that number jumps up to 48.9%

If you are also a town player and can correctly identify two other town players while removing yourself from the equation, that number jumps up to a 55.5% chance to be pushing one of the mafia today

I haven't double checked the math because I'm lazy, but I think this is actually a really good way to go about this. We can popcorn and nominate two townreads each, and then eliminate from what remains.

Spoiler:

Probability Calculator





Feel free to use your own numbers

The numbers are actually off because it doesn't account for the fact that the first elimination removes a player from the pool. The actual chances are slightly higher than shown.

[Dunnstral]

It certainly helps to reframe the argument.

If you are town, and you have 1 townread, and you exclude yourself. Your chance of voting out mafia in 2 eliminations is greater than 50%.

To argue that the day 1 elimination is completely random is likely incorrect. I challenge people to be able to have 1 townread rather than defaulting to a no-elimination.

If you have a slight scumlean, you should be voting for them instead of voting to not eliminate. 2 eliminations is

not

worse than 1. Eliminations are the towns tool, mafia use the night kills. When have you ever played a game of mafia as town and tried to eliminate as few times as possible?

I pointed out that mafia have the option of forcing the same situation where there's 4 players alive whether we no eliminate today or not. So the only argument left is that we will somehow have more information later, but we can't get information later if we no eliminate. And the information we get later is worth more when there are less players alive, anyways.

[Dunnstral]

I don't like 167 from furtiveglance because they enter the thread saying they have nothing to say and that they're just waiting. That looks like mafia and on top of that they posted 175 and 178 which I also don't like due to the arguments being used such as saying that town always gets eliminated day 1 (not true!), saying that a pivot can't happen because only they have votes (not true!), and phrases like "this is blatantly accusing me of being mafia" which seems evident but is framed as if it is outrageous.

Not sure why Alianna then immediately agreed with those posts or called 172 a strongman (it isn't).
I did understand what Alianna was getting at in 178 and don't like that furtiveglance seemed to be going a different direction with it in 180.

Oh and their reads are the 2 people pushing them are mafia, but they won't push there unless prodded.

VOTE: furtiveglance

[Dunnstral]

I explained why in the post above

[Dunnstral]

I simply think that scum decided to put the kill first when they felt it would be the least harmful to themselves

[Dunnstral]

@mod

I'm voting furtiveglance

[Dunnstral]

I'm the main one pushing her no kill.
Titus needs to give her reasoning for the furtive vote an why not me when I'm clearly being called scum in that post as the main person pushing for no kill.

Like I said. Town can disagree. Scum jump on the opportunity to silence town and deny information.

You keep talking about scum trying to deny information, but I don't think that's the case here. By giving us the kill action today, I think scum beleived they could steer the game towards two miseliminations on day 1 which is good for them. So I think scum would actually want to go ahead with the second elimination unless the wagons were on them and it looked likely to be a scum elim.

Then where was the effort by anyone to hunt? Why was it like pulling teeth?

Why aren't players like Dunn actively voting, knowing it's the right thing to do?

We don't no lim on Day 1 and now we're doing the equivalent.

Not sure what you mean, I was voting

[Dunnstral]

Why can't you do it today?

[Dunnstral]

Though I think both Titus and furtive are sus, I think it’s unlikely they’re the team.

[Dunnstral]

This also feels like ur scumreading me just so ppl dont think we are a scumteam.

How does this make sense if you're town?

[Dunnstral]

Though I think both Titus and furtive are sus, I think it’s unlikely they’re the team.

Right. A is keeping their options open.

But you originally called them scum because they had you both as scum together. But they don't, and now you're saying they're keeping their options open instead.

How are their reads different from town who is giving a reads list?

[Dunnstral]

Dunn might be scum here.

Go on

[Dunnstral]

I think you are being weird and don't agree with your reads but I'm not convinced that you are mafia. I am convinced that you're not actually reading my posts except for what you want to see, though.

[Dunnstral]

Scum!Dunn struggles with content

Not true

and I saw you elsewhere.

Also not true

[Dunnstral]

Instead of just saying no you I will go ahead and substantiate my claims. To be clear, I am saying that Titus is lying in her last post.

My last post on site was from before my prod in this game. 351

As for the activity tell, here:

Spoiler:

it's hard to verify how his posting rate measures to each game without doing some fancy shit I lack the time for

I did fancy shit because why not?



So, I ran all three games that you linked as well as every game that I can remember playing with Dunn through the spread sheet. Calculated Dunn's percentage of all posts made day 1 compared to how many players were in the game, then did conditional formatting to color his higher post rate games green. (because you are positing that lurk dunn = scum dunn) to then see if there is any corrolation.

The conditional formatting guessed incorrectly 4 times, got it right 1 time, and then it did not give a result on his middle of the road game.

If anything, this is wrong more then it is right, and lurk Dunn = town Dunn.

viewtopic.php?f=23&t=87781 - Chromatic Ascension, Dunn was Knight Beige
viewtopic.php?f=83&t=87638 - True Love
viewtopic.php?f=52&t=83971 - Forest Fire

some (semi-)recent samples of lurkscum Dunn
there could be others from games I didn't keep tabs on but it's hard to verify how his posting rate measures to each game without doing some fancy shit I lack the time for

-GE

I'm not lurking in the first 2 games, I'm town in the last game.

omg. If you were town in Forest fire, that would eliminate the singular correct guess based on posting habits, and it will have been wrong in every single listed game lmao

I'm not saying that my activity here makes me town, but claiming it is my meta to lurk as scum doesn't appear to be correct and I think that the above proves that.

[Dunnstral]

VOTE: Titus

For lying and not responding to any of my posts after misrepresenting me numerous times

[Dunnstral]

Having said that, why aren't you voting, Dunn? For anyone?

I did not know who I wanted to eliminate.

[Dunnstral]

I wasn't pushing Titus until the end when she came at me when she lied to try to push me

I even said I didn't think what they were doing was scummy right before that.

I agree with RR in 397

[Dunnstral]

I thought inform would be really OP but in order from most impactful to least the mafia can: get the BP elimmed, get one of the mafia informed, NK the informed, get the informed elimmed (highly unlikely but possible), or get the BP to be informed so they just have a townread of themselves (which if one of the mafia were informed they would probably pretend this is what had happened or give a townread of their partner), to soften the blow to them.

Why would they hate that?

We're at evens right now.

[Dunnstral]

Should have quoted 555

[Dunnstral]

I wasn't pushing Titus until the end when she came at me when she lied to try to push me

I even said I didn't think what they were doing was scummy right before that.

I agree with RR in 397

This only makes you look worse to me though. It suggests you were voting for Titus to go out not because you necessarily read them as scum, but just because they were trying to push you. I understand it's frustrating if Titus twisted the truth to suspect you, but in my experience scum try to look less deliberately scummy than that. I get the first turn is difficult but not keen on someone being on the Titus wagon solely due to how they individually were read by Titus.

I voted them because they were lying to push me, not just because they scumread me.

If you think scum don't do that, then you should have told that to me yesterday before Titus was eliminated. I don't think town do that, so I voted for Titus.

[Dunnstral]

And I understand that misunderstandings are a thing, but this wasn't one. I pointed out how what Titus was saying was false, and instead of responding to me at all they started blaming everybody else and saying that the game was hopeless, and calling me a lurker again.

[Dunnstral]

VOTE: Dunnstral

This is the best vote. You guys might not like it, but it's true. Mafia are very unlikely to have confirmed my alignment

It also makes things a lot simpler. All you have to do is figure out whether I am town or not. Whereas a vote for Goldfish means we need to figure out both if goldfish is town, and if furtive/malcolm/whoever are mafia trying to push it onto the townie who is also the bp,

[Dunnstral]

What if we think you aren't town?

Going to need more than "bad vibes" at this stage of the game.

[Dunnstral]

Why don't you like that?

How is voting for myself not "being a team player"?

[Dunnstral]

I'm not comfortable with:

1) Following early consensus

Because:

1b) I am worried we will target a town player who will see themselves as town. Which is not inherently clearing information, as mafia can lie about that as well

And:

2) Following the opinions of those who pushed to skip the elimination yesterday

Because:

2b) Skipping the elimination was wrong and I explained why.

I think that the elimination landing on Titus who was also the choice for night kill changes things. There's only been one death out of 3. I didn't like the idea of 2 deaths out of 3 because mafia could force it to evens anyway. In the end, we ended up at evens by sheer chance. I would not normally have voted for Titus yesterday.

So that was kind of rambly but I think that mafia were both pushing to not eliminate and pushing somebody besides Titus yesterday.

As for Goldfish, I lean town.

[Dunnstral]

Not sure why I gain sus in the post above

[Dunnstral]

Not sure why I gain sus in the post above

Because it doesn't say why in the spoilered parts and instead seems to be setting up for a townread on me

[Dunnstral]

Which is why if goldfish is BP i will be more sus of dunnstral and maybe RR

nope

[Dunnstral]

Who do the players voting for Goldfish think will die during the night?

[Dunnstral]

@Dunnstral can you give a readlist and explian some of your thought process? I feel like most of your posts are about if we should double elim or not or defending your vote on Titus. I don't scumread you for voting Titus and originally to me her posts looked very scummy but I had more of a gut feeling that she was town, I get why you voted her though. What I do scumread you for is the lack of solve-driven input from you and the lack of expressing any townreads.

Towny: Goldfish, Alianna, Flea
Null: Radical Rat, radital cat
Scummy: FurtiveGlance, Malcolm

That is where I am at with reads

As for thought process, what do you want to know?

[Dunnstral]

Don't like the last few posts from furtive or malcolm

[Dunnstral]

@Dunnstral can you give a readlist and explian some of your thought process? I feel like most of your posts are about if we should double elim or not or defending your vote on Titus. I don't scumread you for voting Titus and originally to me her posts looked very scummy but I had more of a gut feeling that she was town, I get why you voted her though. What I do scumread you for is the lack of solve-driven input from you and the lack of expressing any townreads.

Towny: Goldfish, Alianna, Flea
Null: Radical Rat, radital cat
Scummy: FurtiveGlance, Malcolm

That is where I am at with reads

As for thought process, what do you want to know?

These reads are really strange.
You think that:
1) Yesterday was town/town
2) I knew that and didn't want to condemn the nightkill
3) I loudly townread the nightkill and begged for a pivot to another town
4) Malcolm and I have paired openly and townread each other all game as the worst scumteam ever

Scumcase me. How did you get here?

1) Sure, why not. I wasn't focused on that though
2) Sure, why not
3) As pointed out you did do this
4) Maybe. I didn't call you the worst scum team ever though.

None of those 4 points make me not scumread you

[Dunnstral]

As for thought process, what do you want to know?

Why do you read each person that way?

I still think FurtiveGlance is scummy from the start of the game and they way they overblow things. Malcolm feels like they are maneuvering in a scummy way. I don't trust Malcolm's reads or how they got there.

[Dunnstral]

Explain why I should vote for Radical Rat
Most of your case seems to be that they are paired with me, which I don't agree with

[Dunnstral]

I also disagree about my defence. It's less 'I wouldn't do that' and more 'No one would do that'.

I really don't think that's true. There are clear benefits to not voting out the NK target. I cannot for the life of me come up with the words to explain why but this feels like you did that.

Mafia are allowed to shoot at the bulletproof player, so at the very least it is in their ballpark whether we are at evens or odds, no matter if Titus gets eliminated or not. I pointed this out earlier when I argued to use the double eliminate.

[Dunnstral]

The inform, bp, and night kill have already all been decided

And you indicated that you think Goldfish is a light townread.

Malcolm's 761 above where he points at me and calls Furtive a more difficult elimination than radical rat while implying it's all to protect me is crazy. Why is my name in that conversation at all?

[Dunnstral]

VOTE: MalcolmTucker

[Dunnstral]

Not to say that I think you should vote furtive, but if you still scumread them both, it doesn't make sense that you would vote on a wagon with no chance of going through.

Why does it have no chance of going through?

[Dunnstral]

Wasn't paying attention to time but it is plurality.

[Dunnstral]

VOTE: FurtiveGlance

[Dunnstral]

Every person who has died has voted for furtive at some point

[Dunnstral]

VOTE: Cat.jpeg

[Dunnstral]

The track target would not be confirmed innocent.

They also send a player to kill and which one of them perform the kill on the NEXT night phase. This cannot be changed.

Even if we eliminate mafia today, the mafia we eliminated can still be the person who performs the kill during the night phase. The track has to hit the correct member of the mafia.

[Dunnstral]

¤ If the player planning to perform the night kill dies, their partner WILL do it instead.

Nevermind, just read this. Yeah, if we eliminate mafia today we get a lot of info

And if we don't, we lose

I'm fine with cat being cleared or condemned following todays elimination

[Dunnstral]

Flea was a bit suspect of Dunn toward the end of D1.

No, they weren't.

[Dunnstral]

You realize that I literally voted Titus out for making things up?

Like, not a difference in opinion. Literally lying to try to justify pushing me.

And now you're doing the same thing.

You do realize that I am willing to vote you for this. Regardless of what result goldfish has here

And if we lose because two townies made things up to try to eliminate me. And I understandably voted them both out (or died trying)
And, again, not a difference in opinion, but actually just objectively making things up where what they are saying can be proven 100% false.
Then... it's not my fault we lost, I'm not going to be blaming myself, and I will very much be saying "I told you so" after. Or maybe I'll just disappear because I don't really care to argue after the game.

If you still want to go down this route, then by all means. Anyone who wants to do their own homework will notice that Flea does not display any suspicion on me.

----

So for the rest of your post:

No, Flea dying does not point to me.
No, it doesn't make sense for me to be scum with Furtive. I tried to get them eliminated on day 1... and on day. And It was reasonably close both times. It actually could have happened. There isn't really an incentive for a team of me and Furtive to vote for each other here on day 3. And I do plan on voting Furtive, as I am pretty sure they are mafia. I think Cat is probably the most likely partner and would like the tracker to figure that out.

Yes, it does not make sense to track you. Cat might be worried about losing instantly if they are partnered with Furtive, so they could be playing up suspicions on Goldfish/yourself and seeing if anybody bites.

As for the team of Me and Alianna, it doesn't make sense for us to clear you when you were scumreading both of us at the end of day 1. You also called us possible partners. When I voted you on day 2, Alianna brushed it off and said it had no chance of happening.

[Dunnstral]

Day 2 starts at post 506

The post you quote above is during day 2. Flea was chosen as the night kill before they made that post.

[Dunnstral]

They quote day 2 starting in that post

[Dunnstral]

I don't think Alianna is scum, and it seems the only case is that they are likely to be paired with me

[Dunnstral]

But if I'm not scum, then is that not suspicious?

[Dunnstral]

Why would Alianna want to eliminate me instead of two town being voted at deadline

How could I have been eliminated when nobody was voting me

[Dunnstral]

Vote Count 2.1.2

furtiveglance (2*) Flea the Magician, Radical Rat
Radical Rat (2) Cat.jpeg, furtiveglance
Dunnstrall (1) MalcolmTucker

Not Voting (3) GoldfishFromtheMoon, Dunnstrall, Alianna

With 8 votes it takes 5* to make someone sleep with the fishes.
(expired on 2022-05-21 01:16:31)

VOTE: MalcolmTucker

Furtive digging in deeper I see.

Whats wrong with Dunn looking towards candidates?

I don't think looking towards other candidates is scummy in and of itself, but with less than a day left on the deadline, if you have two scumreads you should vote the one that actually has a chance of going through. The vanity vote was shady.

You are voting me actually, and my vote moves to you, and only then does Alianna say that it looks shady

What you are suggesting is that I was in danger of being eliminated here, and Alianna was preparing to bus me. I don't think that makes sense, especially since neither Alianna or I are voting the leading wagons there

[Dunnstral]

What you are saying was hedging bets was in response to something I did, though.

[Dunnstral]

Mafia did not have to pick informed at all.

[Dunnstral]

I think there is exactly 1 scum in RR/furtive. It looks to me like a town/scum interaction, and if one of them flips town it's going to look really bad for the other.

Although throwing a crazy conspiracy out there (this is probably definitely wrong) what if it's both of them? Together, and this is a crazy megabus that's been going since day 1.

Light Scumread:
Cat

Strong Scumread:
furtive

This is an interesting pairing, if furtive is scum cat is probably the partner. furtive's associations with a lot of the player list make it highly unlikely they are paired, but this isn's so with cat.

At the moment I still fairly strongly town read cat, but if furtive turns out to be scum that might change.

This game has a lot of associatives.

Intent to hammer Radical Rat.

Not that it means anything with 4 hours till deadline.
This is going through no matter what I do.

Cat's scumcase was good.
And you guys are right intent is kinda pointless in this setup so I'll end this.

VOTE: radical rat

Is Cat planning to hammer? Seems like nobody has any objections to this going through.

I wanted Goldfish to say something before I didl

U wanted to see my response to your theory about me and malcom didn't you. I honestly dk what too say except that I can see why you thought of it because scum me would do that but that's not what's happening now. I kinda wonder tho if you are scum trying to throw us off the scent with a wacky theory.

Legitimately right now I don't have any idea who the scum is. As Cat said I've townread or leaned every player who is currently alive so my reads are definitely wrong this game.

I don't like this

[Dunnstral]

You say there is 1 scum in RR/Furtive

RR flipped town and you came into today saying you have no idea who it could be.

So did you not believe what you said earlier? What am I ignoring that gives context that made you think furtive and radical rat were not opposite alignments?

[Dunnstral]

VOTE: furtiveglance

[Dunnstral]

Upon further reflection mafia had a choice between track, watch, and imprison

I'd argue that tracker was a worse choice for the mafia than watcher would have been, and the only reason not to pick watcher is if the mafia is worried that town will guess correctly

So to me that makes it more likely that goldfish was selected as the kill. If goldfish were mafia their options for the kill are realistically alianna or cat, and I'm not sure why they would pick track instead of watch.

Because if we eliminate correctly today, the track gives us a lot of information, but the watcher only has a chance to give information

[Dunnstral]

You're right but you also have a strong incentive to try to switch our vote if you are mafia

[Dunnstral]

Yeah, no. I'm putting my foot down and saying we are not voting out goldfish today. You've been trying (and succeeding) to convince town to play to not lose instead of playing to win this whole game. You're going to have to vote out Furtive or myself, my vote isn't moving.

[Dunnstral]

I think Dunnstral's been way more careful than I have. I've been loud and outspoken.

Where am I being careful?

[Dunnstral]

I mean, they're not scum with me so they're trolling or it was malcolm