Open 850: Democrabilities (Postgame)

[MalcolmTucker]

Hello all.

[MalcolmTucker]

Greeting the game. Unforgiveable.

VOTE: MalcolmTucker

I like a nice boring opening.

[MalcolmTucker]

My understanding of the rules is the N1 kill has already been submitted, as each one is submitted a night in advance.

All the more reason to double eliminate today

Just trying to fully wrap my head around the rules, but do we think that'll definitely be beneficial? Risky not to eliminate at all but if we get it wrong, 4 vs 2 is potentially tough to fight back from no?

[MalcolmTucker]

I think it's too risky to eliminate twice based off day one tells unless someone is really sus.

Yeah I'm not against the idea if a solid wagon does form but feels incredibly risky if there's any uncertainty at all. Need to see how it develops.

[MalcolmTucker]

Greeting the game. Unforgiveable.

VOTE: MalcolmTucker

My first post was a joke. I also think the greeting tell is is pretty stupid. "Hello All" wouldn't even qualify as an example. It was just a bit of meaningless content I came up with for us to read alignment into later.

Reading back first page, Furtive's clarficiation re making a joke feels a little bit overly defensive to me? I know there was a vote for him afterwards but I feel like just about everyone would have been aware that it was a joke, and the follow-up afterwards feels slightly panicky.

[MalcolmTucker]

This is our one and only chance at a no lim. Regular eliminations are mandatory

You're right. So do you think we should no eliminate here so we're not suck on evens?

I think we should use both eliminations. Information from flips is worth it, and the fewer living slots the more likely it is we get something useful out of the future PRs.

Only issue there is another botched vote after essentially means end of game, no?

[MalcolmTucker]

I'm wary about voting D1 given the risks previously discussed but I don't think it'd be a terrible idea to play around with some wagons and see how they develop. My general view is we'll be split on how town/mafia want to approach this...it'll be beneficial for mafia if two townies are eliminated and so they will obviously push in that direction but I don't think they'll go gung-ho either because they look suspect if they get it wrong. Likewise, I can see both town perspectives so I don't think anyone hedging against two eliminations is automatically mafia - could be risky town, albeit a lack of wagons will inherently benefit mafia, if that makes sense.

[MalcolmTucker]

Greeting the game. Unforgiveable.

VOTE: MalcolmTucker

My first post was a joke. I also think the greeting tell is is pretty stupid. "Hello All" wouldn't even qualify as an example. It was just a bit of meaningless content I came up with for us to read alignment into later.

Reading back first page, Furtive's clarficiation re making a joke feels a little bit overly defensive to me? I know there was a vote for him afterwards but I feel like just about everyone would have been aware that it was a joke, and the follow-up afterwards feels slightly panicky.

Nice try but no. Goldfish's 11 clearly took it seriously and voted me for it. So I clarified. Let me anticipate your response. 'Oh furtiveglance clarifying once again, this is clearly scum on the back foot getting so defensive. Besides, even if he is town, let's get some info'.

Goldfish's vote didn't really read like much of a scumread though but more of a tongue-in-cheek annoyed policy vote early on - indeed quite frankly anyone who claims on page one of a game they reckon they've caught mafia is generally always going to be lying because at that point it's all gut reads.

I don't think your response is particularly scummy for what it's worth, albeit it's quite defensive, but 16 pinged me precisely because it felt like such an overblown response to a daft early policy vote.

[MalcolmTucker]

Let me just say, I am very cautious of anyone peddling the holy grail of 'info'. It's become a buzzword that scum (and town for some reason) love to hold up as the key to town winning the game. The fact is, we aren't robots. Town push town, scum push town, town defend town, scum defend town. So the idea of just voting someone at random for 'info' is inherently stupid and pointless. I'm pretty sure that if we end up double eliminating today two townies will die, and people will use the VCA as a tool to further their own scum agenda/town tunneling anyway. A much better idea is to no eliminate first, then agree on one vote.

Well...yeah, this is just describing how mafia works and is a bit of a nothing statement. I certainly don't think we should blindly go all-out on two eliminations to gain info but by the same token I don't think it's necessarily a horrible idea to play around with some wagons if we're interested in them to see how players react when under pressure. 'Info' may not be a holy grail but ultimately the only way we have a good chance of solving any game beyond mere chance is by pressing players for info and seeing what we get back from that, no?

[MalcolmTucker]

I say this as someone who tends not to be a huge in-game voter for what it's worth - I'll generally only switch around two/three times a turn at most unless a game gets particularly chaotic. But I feel like the first part of Furtive's post there isn't saying anything at all and shows a certain caginess at the idea of major pushes this early on.

[MalcolmTucker]

Mechanics aside, Radical Rat and Titus are giving me bad vibes. Yes it's because they're voting for me. I think that's understandable.

Their attitudes seem a little bit menacing/hostile

In what sense?

[MalcolmTucker]

I don't consider indecisiveness or lack of strong opinions to be a scumtell. Townies have to re-evaluate their opinions as they factor in new information. "Jumping around" is only scummy if it's done in a way that seems artificial. Either way, it's irrelevant, because Cat isn't doing that.

Agreed on this, been torn either way...very much leaning towards no kill but unsure how much info we'll necessarily be able to glean from night 1 at the moment after the kill. Frustration in that regard is that game mechanics discussion feels like it's taken up so much of the content so far that it's hard to read who is being genuine with their discussion and who might be using it to mask from actually engaging with accusing other players etc.

[MalcolmTucker]

As I say was torn either way but looks like we're solidly looking at a no kill here. If nobody has any objections I'll hammer so we can move on. Game feels a bit stuck.

[MalcolmTucker]

I'd have only really supported using the kill if we were able to have a fairly conclusive day which made us confident going into the night, but we're clearly not in that situation and I can't imagine a scenario at the moment where any benefits from using our kills will outweigh the potential drawbacks if things go wrong.

[MalcolmTucker]

Can't make my mind up on Furtive. I don't like the fact they are accusing basically anyone who seems to vary from them in opinion but I see where that could come from frustrated town. I've played with Furtive once before and I remember them employing a fairly similar style when they were town and ended up being miselimmed. Despite strongly disliking their approach I'm nowhere near 100% they're mafia and from that POV would feel more comfortable with a no elim at the moment.

[MalcolmTucker]

So currently with the game state I think we should go for a no-elimination,

because it's too risky to hit two townies, which is the most likely outcome.

Just want to point out that there is a 39.5% chance of hitting mafia today if we vote completely randomly with both votes

If we can correctly identify two town players before eliminations then that number jumps up to 48.9%

If you are also a town player and can correctly identify two other town players while removing yourself from the equation, that number jumps up to a 55.5% chance to be pushing one of the mafia today

Not sure how much I like this - sounds alright in principle, but somewhere between a 40% chance and just over half-chance of a successful elimination is a really big risk to take at this point when a bad result for town here could give mafia a huge advantage. In a bigger setup I think it could be reasonable, in this nine-player setup it essentially means if tomorrow goes poorly the game could be over already?

The whole post here feels a little bit opportunistic to me. Ultimately there is no way we can simply and easily identify town players; indeed the only team who can do that are mafia. There'll be a risk whatever way we go if we opt for elimination and I do not like trying to downplay that risk.

[MalcolmTucker]

@Furtive - do you not think it looks slightly suspect that so far your approach has basically been to accuse the players who just happen to have completely contradictory stances to you? For me it's making me second-guess you being mafia because it feels like too blatant an approach for scum, but it is not helpful here and does not make your case look good.

[MalcolmTucker]

For what it's worth as well despite being more no elimination I'm largely TR'ing Titus at the moment - I think their desire to eliminate is risky but it feels pretty consistent and more coming from a place of confident town.

[MalcolmTucker]

Also I'm happy not to hammer at the moment to allow further discussion for everyone else. Believe Goldfish was planning to hammer from reading through so interested to hear if their thoughts have changed or if there's a proper consensus on this.

[MalcolmTucker]

@Furtive - do you not think it looks slightly suspect that so far your approach has basically been to accuse the players who just happen to have completely contradictory stances to you? For me it's making me second-guess you being mafia because it feels like too blatant an approach for scum, but it is not helpful here and does not make your case look good.

Listen, Malcolm.

Mafia chose to give us an extra kill today. So who would be pushing a miscondemn hardest today? Mafia.

It's that simple for me. If I gave town an extra kill I wouldn't want to waste it. I think the stance (trying to put me in the ground) is badly motivated. So yeah. That's just how I see the game.

Expanded reads would be something like this: Flea strong townread, you strong townread, Goldfish/Alianna probs town, Cat.jpeg being a bit weird, and the people trying to kill me look sus. Yeah they do, I'm not gonna pretend they don't. They want to condemn a town for no good reason. That's a perfectly reasonable basis for suspicion.

Possibly but this isn't absolutely guaranteed. The problem for mafia is if they drive the wagon and hit two town they start to look really bad in D2, do they not? There's a big risk/reward to pushing for the double elimination I'd argue so I'm genuinely unsure where they'd lean, which is partially what is making me wary about going all-out for either option because I'm trying to figure out what is optimal to them.

[MalcolmTucker]

My inherent reluctance in completely believing or backing you here also comes from the fact that your stance would basically mean we have the game sorted after D1. As you well know...it's rarely that simple.

[MalcolmTucker]

I honestly think RR has been fine. Their posts are no more confrontational than plenty of stuff you see in these threads. I feel like you're just largely scumreading anyone who doesn't completely agree with you which could be frustrated town but isn't exactly too useful here.

[MalcolmTucker]

You should back me, it will pay off handsomely.

As I've said I'm very much on the no-elimination train here, I'm just not hammering yet because I want to clarify where everyone stands, I'm just very wary of your suggestion here you've basically caught both scum early on easily because they want to go for two eliminations. If such an approach works it's clearly got the support of townies too.

[MalcolmTucker]

Newbie 2088 vibes. No one really saying anything, someone votes someone randomly and then everyone piles on for no reason.

That...isn't what's happening though. Two players are voting for you. This feels like a bit of a misrep of the game at the moment. And it's not as if those voting for you haven't set out a reason of some sort for doing so.

[MalcolmTucker]

Currently there's Titus voting you because they think you're scum trying to steer us away from an elimination. RR's vote at the start seemed to be on a more policy basis. It's not just mindless sheep hopping onto you for the sake of it as you seem to be suggesting.

[MalcolmTucker]

That's to Furtive obviously, not you Alianna.

[MalcolmTucker]

Sorry I thought two. Hadn't noticed Dunnstral's switch but it's not as if they're doing it without reason. They're just as focused on you as you are on them...that doesn't seem unfair.

Anyway, I've outlined myself I really didn't like Dunnstral's reasoning for eliminating today. Titus' seemed more straightforward, they just want two eliminations, Dunnstral felt a lot more determined to use proper logic/maths to advocate for two eliminations but I fundamentally don't agree it's a good idea from their posts.

[MalcolmTucker]

Currently there's Titus voting you because they think you're scum trying to steer us away from an elimination. RR's vote at the start seemed to be on a more policy basis. It's not just mindless sheep hopping onto you for the sake of it as you seem to be suggesting.

Titus should be voting for Flea btw, if you go back and check. They disagreed with Flea then voted me.

That's an odd way to look at it. You can disagree with a player without necessarily reading them as scum. This feels like an inherently dishonest way to frame Titus' vote.

[MalcolmTucker]

Titus also expressed clearly where they disagreed with you before casting their vote too. It's not as if it was a completely random and unprompted vote.

[MalcolmTucker]

My point though is that Titus can disagree with you without wanting to vote for you. But they can look at the way another players frames their reasoning for approach and view that as scummy. After all there are four players currently going no-elim and I'm leaning that way too; Titus obviously doesn't read all of us as scum.

[MalcolmTucker]

Okay so I was thinking about if Furtive was scum, who would be their scumbuddy?
I think it would be pretty crazy if Dunnstral, RadicalRat, or Titus is their scumbuddy.
Malcolm Tucker I really dont think is because of 100 and 102 along with other posts
Flea I dont think is because of 209, now normally I would consider the possibility of them being a scumbuddy but who doesn't want to go down with furtive so they decide its better to add some pressure to distance themselves but not straight up scum read but this post and the reasons used really dont feel like a scum buddy interaction.
Alianna 196, slightly less sure but also dont think this is scumbuddy behaviour.
Lastly there's Goldfish who i feel could be a possible scumbuddy, the RVS vote for Furtive coulda been orchestrated. She also was the only one who put basically no pressure on furtive, I will admit tho, I myself didnt say very much against them.

Ofc this all only matters if furtive is scum, but I dont know if I want to vote them soon and find out so oh well.
I could spend 5 hrs doing this ^ for everyone so if we find one mafia we will instantly know the other (because my assumptions are definitely always right) but im tired and also i dont think doing this will be as clear cut for other people and things might change but i thought this was worth it in case the furtive wagon rolls on into elim phase.
Basically what im saying is if furtive is scum goldfish would prolly be a good vote, if goldfish is town i think furtive is too?

(also just in case i get night killed, which i feel like i wont, i dont think Goldfish would wanna kill me night 1 (and its okay for me to say this because they cant change their minds) though she could probably be persuaded idk)

Honestly I suppose in this case you would end up looking like the most likely partner, although I'm unsure both mafia would be so against the double elimination for performative reasons given the benefit to them if it goes through and doesn't go well.

[MalcolmTucker]

@MalcolmTucker can you do a readlist? slightly hypocritical for me to ask since i havent done one but im working on it.

Not in a position to right this second but can have one down for tonight.

[MalcolmTucker]

I've been wary of Furtive and wouldn't rule them out being scum here but I think it's a style thing to a large degree, I've seen them play this way as town before so to a degree it's probably NAI. Repeatedly pushing players who disagree with them is suspect though, but again feels a bit over-obvious as a strategy to come from scum.

[MalcolmTucker]

This is just some rough thoughts so far, as is often the case I struggle for concrete reads on short D1's and I'm not often confident on gut. Also often too generous with TR's early game. Not much of a readlists person in general either but can have a go since the game is fairly small.

Cat: Bit of a hedgy style at times for me and eager to look like they're doing things without much substance being there. Post 273 for example looks like it's doing a lot of work re a possible Furtive partner but when you actually read it, it's not saying much and seems to almost rule out most of the players a bit too confidently. If I'm wrong on Furtive not being town, possible partner.

Furtive: I'm split down the middle here. As mentioned above Furtive has a pretty combative style at times and from playing with them doesn't react well to suspicion. But they were town when we played together, I'm inclined to think being genuine but overzealous here.

Titus: I think Titus has seemed townie so far. Disagree with their drive for an elimination but it felt genuine and confident as an approach. Their push for Furtive also feels genuine even though I'm not sure I agree.

Dunnstral: I didn't particularly like Dunnstral's attempt to justify a double elimination with stats: a less than half chance of randomly hitting scum for me was not an inherently good one and I found it odd they were making it out to be so. Early reads would have either one of them or Cat - but probably not both - as scum.

Goldfish: Pretty townie so far, been open-minded re either using the kill or not in a way that didn't feel too opportunistic. Keen to help with gameplay info, would like to know more re concrete reads from them going forward I think though to feel more confident in town status.

Radical Rat: I didn't necessarily agree with Radical's approach to the two-kills but I like the fact they wanted this to try and use the info from it to sort after. It's a solid justification for doing so and it's generally how I like to work in terms of later game-play, looking at how wagons form and such. Also been open-minded enough re a no-kill, town for me on the balance of things so far. Playing confidently and naturally.

Flea: Fundamentally agreed with their posts re the risks coming from relying on percentages to eliminate two players. Feel like they're pressing and pushing in a way that's reasonable thus far - not getting stuck on any one player or discussion/idea.

Alianna: Feel like there's a lot of filler early doors from this slot. Keen to clear Dunnstral in 178 on what I'd argue is quite a flimsy basis. Feel like 179 throws shade onto Titus in a way that's not entirely honest. 196 is very hedgy on what they think of Furtive. Possible Dunnstral partner maybe?

[MalcolmTucker]

TL;DR for where I am.

Town: Titus, Radical Rat, Flea, Goldfish
Swaying either way but more town: Furtive
Possible scum: Dunnstral, Alianna, Cat

[MalcolmTucker]

As mentioned on last page, suspicious of Alianna and could get behind an elimination there. Happy to vote here for now and see how they react.

VOTE: Alianna

[MalcolmTucker]

I like Radical Rat as town for now, I'd consider Cat, intrigued to see how both Alianna and Cat respond.

[MalcolmTucker]

Alanna is someone who needs my attention at the moment, but I'm currently in a manic depressive episode so bear with me while I work it out my system

@Mod LA due to health

Shouldn't be issue but just in case.

Keep well and stay safe.

[MalcolmTucker]

Sorry I've been busy and behind, will catch up.

[MalcolmTucker]

I'm happy to go back and read through Titus' ISO here - and perhaps I'm being influenced by the fact we appear to have somewhat similar scumreads - but I really don't think they're mafia here and wouldn't be comfortable voting there. Disagreed largely on the no lim thing but I think this is mostly just genuine frustration.

[MalcolmTucker]

VOTE: Titus

I think this needs to happen though. Both the Alianna and Dunnstral pushes were based on things that are just objectively not true, and I'm not buying the "I'm the only competent player in the game" act, despite sharing her frustration with the no lim D1.

Really strange phrasing - 'this needs to happen'. Only vote for people you think are scum.

Cat.jpeg voting for Radical Rat makes me think they aren't paired, and I'm more sure of RR being scum.

UNVOTE: Cat.Jpeg

VOTE: Radical Rat

I don't think RR and Cat are the scumteam but you need to be careful with logic like this, ie. x voted y therefore x and y are not scum together. Scum love to bus, they do it all the time to try and get town credit.

Could be wrong but I imagine this would be especially true in smaller games as well typically where it's more imperative for scum to try and diassociate themselves from each other where possible - if it becomes obvious who is paired with who then it's game over, unlike in larger setups where you can be more explicit in TR'ing a scum buddy because the advantages of keeping them in for a turn or two more outweigh any disadvantages of you defending them too hard.

[MalcolmTucker]

In 281, Radical Rat has me as slightly scummy, but in 397 they're talking about me like I'm conftown. 355 does it too to a lesser extent. Kind of looks TMI.

This is a good catch which needs to be explained by RR.

Are they really talking about Alianna as confirmed town in 397 though? Their reads seems to have shifted here to wanting Titus eliminated (which I guess could be perceived as being quite opportunistic) but I don't see anything there which stops them from reasonably shifting back to Alianna at some point.

[MalcolmTucker]

Dunn might be scum here.

Go on

Scum!Dunn struggles with content and I saw you elsewhere.

If this is what has people concerned about Titus, I'm struggling to fundamentally see a major issue with it at all. Wouldn't mind seeing the read elaborated to gauge whether Titus is still here or if their read has shifted elsewhere at all but it's hardly overly incriminating?

[MalcolmTucker]

I suppose I'm just really struggling to see a world where neither Dunn nor Alianna are scum here and it feels very convenient for them both that they are sitting on the Titus wagon. Might not be a team though since I'd wager someone from scum team might be sitting off the wagon for now for some town-cred if it goes through and Titus comes back clean.

[MalcolmTucker]

Sorry, I've had a lot happening past couple days, didn't find the energy to engage here.

At any rate, I have to agree that Titus looks bad here. Alianna push/vote was questionable, but I was willing to take it as just being wrong, moving on to Dunnstral with a similarly bad/reachy push after no one bit on Alianna though... I think that tips the scale a bit too far.

Lol.

Now I have lost pretty much all hope for this game.

There's no one competent here I can build around.

Most everyone fucked up D1 mechanically.
People ignore social dynamics in a game.

I'd sub out here but that would be strategic here so *shrug*.

I could be wrong here of course and Titus may just be trying to manipulate the gamestate to their suiting but this does not feel scummy to me - it's not exactly a useful way for scum to get town on their side, which you'd imagine scum Titus would want to do here.

[MalcolmTucker]

Dunn might be scum here.

Go on

Scum!Dunn struggles with content and I saw you elsewhere.

If this is what has people concerned about Titus, I'm struggling to fundamentally see a major issue with it at all. Wouldn't mind seeing the read elaborated to gauge whether Titus is still here or if their read has shifted elsewhere at all but it's hardly overly incriminating?

The problem is that Dunnstral in general struggles with content, it's not inherently AI. And Titus knows better than that.

Do they struggle for content a bit more than they would as town though, if that makes sense? Perhaps what Titus is getting at here, still feels like a flimsy reason to SR Titus for me though.

[MalcolmTucker]

Also you should probably acknowledge question above RR from Alianna/Furtive.

[MalcolmTucker]

I think you are being weird and don't agree with your reads but I'm not convinced that you are mafia. I am convinced that you're not actually reading my posts except for what you want to see, though.

Scum!Dunn struggles with content

Not true

and I saw you elsewhere.

Also not true

Instead of just saying no you I will go ahead and substantiate my claims. To be clear, I am saying that Titus is lying in her last post.

My last post on site was from before my prod in this game. 351

As for the activity tell, here:

Spoiler:

it's hard to verify how his posting rate measures to each game without doing some fancy shit I lack the time for

I did fancy shit because why not?



So, I ran all three games that you linked as well as every game that I can remember playing with Dunn through the spread sheet. Calculated Dunn's percentage of all posts made day 1 compared to how many players were in the game, then did conditional formatting to color his higher post rate games green. (because you are positing that lurk dunn = scum dunn) to then see if there is any corrolation.

The conditional formatting guessed incorrectly 4 times, got it right 1 time, and then it did not give a result on his middle of the road game.

If anything, this is wrong more then it is right, and lurk Dunn = town Dunn.

viewtopic.php?f=23&t=87781 - Chromatic Ascension, Dunn was Knight Beige
viewtopic.php?f=83&t=87638 - True Love
viewtopic.php?f=52&t=83971 - Forest Fire

some (semi-)recent samples of lurkscum Dunn
there could be others from games I didn't keep tabs on but it's hard to verify how his posting rate measures to each game without doing some fancy shit I lack the time for

-GE

I'm not lurking in the first 2 games, I'm town in the last game.

omg. If you were town in Forest fire, that would eliminate the singular correct guess based on posting habits, and it will have been wrong in every single listed game lmao

I'm not saying that my activity here makes me town, but claiming it is my meta to lurk as scum doesn't appear to be correct and I think that the above proves that.

VOTE: Titus

For lying and not responding to any of my posts after misrepresenting me numerous times

Dunn, is it solely Titus' misrep of your activity you're voting them for? I could be too determined on Titus town here but I get the impression that may be laziness more than scum to be honest - would feel a bit careless from Titus if they were scum. Just noted your read very quickly went from sort of townie on Titus to voting for them.

[MalcolmTucker]

But fundamentally here do you actually confidently think Titus is scum? The fact you wouldn't expect scum to say what Titus said (your own words) indicates to me it potentially isn't.

[MalcolmTucker]

Reckon a wagon on Alianna would have a much better chance of succeeding than one on Titus personally.

[MalcolmTucker]

I've been thinking about what I'd do if I was scum, and I think it's reasonable to assume scum wouldn't want to openly pair on day 1. This theory assumes mafia implementing the old 'one on, one off' distribution.

So assuming scum wouldn't both be either on No Elim or both be voting for me in the ability phase, it would mean Dunnstral/Radical Rat/Titus has one mafia maximum (but also one mafia minimum).

This effectively clears Titus in my eyes, because Dunnstral and Radical Rat are both scummier.

Does this make sense to anyone, or is it too theoretical?

No I get what you mean here. It's possible, say, a bold Titus/Dunnstral team could just blindly push for a double elimination to try and get a firm grip on the game early on but it seems very unlikely and incredibly risky. I agree a split to some degree is likely. Another possible feint is both mafia sit off the double elimination wagon to seem clean but again unsure how wise that would be for them...mafia would've surely at least teased the double elim you'd think to see how it floated.

I don't think Titus is mafia but also more town-leaning RR at the moment, so paradoxically that wouldn't necessarily clear Titus for me, but I really think it would be a lazy lim if it goes ahead.

[MalcolmTucker]

I'm trying to consider where both scum would be if they were both on the No Elim. Alianna/Cat makes no sense to me. I think the No Elim does look clean, like I said previously Cat.Jpeg is the scummiest on it for me. If I try to primitively gamesolve assuming my idea of normal scum play, Cat/RR aren't paired after Cat voted RR when there is a serious possibility of them going today.
So if I assume Goldfish/Flea/Malcolm/Titus all town, and no bussing, and no open pairing on the same ability phase wagon, it basically leaves Cat.Jpeg/Dunnstral OR Alianna/Radical Rat OR Alianna/Dunnstral. 3 pairings, 2 of which include Alianna. Can you find any problems with this (assuming everything I'm assuming for the purposes of this experiment).

Logic seems pretty solid to me, and by this I'd say Alianna is our best shot at catching mafia here this turn.

[MalcolmTucker]

I don't think Alianna and Radical are teammates here based on that. Radical's reads would implicate them together, but strikes me as unlikely Alianna would be agreeing their mafia teammate is suspect that early in the game unless it was an over-eager attempt at creating some distance between the two of them.

[MalcolmTucker]

I think Alianna's approach to Radical could very much read as hedgy mafia trying to implicate town as scum but not necessarily having the confidence to go all-in with the read. Technically they put them in "null" in their readslist but they had two points of contention with them as well which hardly comes across as being an endorsement.

[MalcolmTucker]

I don't think Alianna and Radical are teammates here based on that. Radical's reads would implicate them together, but strikes me as unlikely Alianna would be agreeing their mafia teammate is suspect that early in the game unless it was an over-eager attempt at creating some distance between the two of them.

Alianna/Dunnstral then?

Possibly, but I'm always wary to believe I've anywhere near solved the game early on. But I read both as quite scummy and would fundamentally be content to eliminate either of them here. However, for reasons you've outlined I think Alianna is our best shot at catching mafia here.

[MalcolmTucker]

Atm I townread Dunnstral and Alianna is null with the a possible scumlean. But if Titus is town this doesn't look good for either of them.

Are you planning to join Alianna bandwagon or do you still prefer Titus? Really feel like Titus is town here.

[MalcolmTucker]

We do need to reach a consensus soon though, don't we? In all fairness to Furtive not as if he's been dead-set on Alianna for the whole day or been unwilling to explore several options.

[MalcolmTucker]

UNVOTE:
Having second thoughts for the one hundred and second time, may or may not have found something fishy, need to reread some stuff, but it’s way too late to do that rn. May put this back later.

If alianna was scum she literally just sacrificed herself, if she didnt unvote she would be safe for today by now. (assuming flea would still vote titus) Unless she made a huge blunder or they are a team who would rather keep titus alive no way this came from scum

Eh I dunno, if Titus comes back town here you'd wager Alianna is the favourite for elimination tomorrow depending on what happens overnight. Could have been Alianna panicking to a degree the vote seemed too obvious, they weren't at E-1 yet I don't think when they unvoted. Scum don't want to appear too obvious on D1 after all. Also unless I'm readingly wrongly did the unvote not come before the most recent vote for Titus?

[MalcolmTucker]

To follow up on the above - Alianna presumably hasn't seen the most recent vote for Titus yet, I wouldn't be surprised if they hammer this because we'll need to eliminate someone and they have hardly been keen on Titus as town. If they hammer they don't look any better here. Bit if a convoluted defence I think Cat.

[MalcolmTucker]

also flea looking kinda sus now ngl

Has Flea's suspicion of Titus not been kinda consistent though? I don't agree with them that Titus will come back red but I don't think the vote itself is coming from an opportunistic place. Why is Flea more suspect than Alianna here, who could easily end up hammering later on?

[MalcolmTucker]

UNVOTE:
Having second thoughts for the one hundred and second time, may or may not have found something fishy, need to reread some stuff, but it’s way too late to do that rn. May put this back later.

If alianna was scum she literally just sacrificed herself, if she didnt unvote she would be safe for today by now. (assuming flea would still vote titus) Unless she made a huge blunder or they are a team who would rather keep titus alive no way this came from scum

Eh I dunno, if Titus comes back town here you'd wager Alianna is the favourite for elimination tomorrow depending on what happens overnight. Could have been Alianna panicking to a degree the vote seemed too obvious, they weren't at E-1 yet I don't think when they unvoted.

Scum don't want to appear too obvious on D1 after all

. Also unless I'm readingly wrongly did the unvote not come before the most recent vote for Titus?

Would Scum Alianna risk getting eliminated for 'not looking to obvious'
When alianna made the post Titus was at e-1 and Alianna was at e-2. (majority is not needed for an elim though and if no one voted until the deadline titus would be voted out).
As scum she would have absolutely no reason to unvote, at all. (unless partners as mentioned earlier but i doubt it)

But my point here is Alianna was not at E-1. If they sensed a vote on Titus was failing they could look for a gambit elsewhere, or just to try and appear more open-minded. I'm unsure this particularly exonerates Alianna although I do take your point that they could have had Titus out by now.

[MalcolmTucker]

I wasn't pushing Titus until the end when she came at me when she lied to try to push me

I even said I didn't think what they were doing was scummy right before that.

I agree with RR in 397

This only makes you look worse to me though. It suggests you were voting for Titus to go out not because you necessarily read them as scum, but just because they were trying to push you. I understand it's frustrating if Titus twisted the truth to suspect you, but in my experience scum try to look less deliberately scummy than that. I get the first turn is difficult but not keen on someone being on the Titus wagon solely due to how they individually were read by Titus.

[MalcolmTucker]

Flea voting for Titus slightly dampens my townread there. I think Goldfish is the most town for me.

I would like to inform Goldfish.

VOTE: Goldfish

I'd generally agree here. There's a part of me that's slightly hesitant though because Goldfish was ultimately on a town wagon I thought was quite bad...but I get not everyone on said wagon is going to be scum and players do make mistakes. Will put my vote on Goldfish for now, but I am open to alternative ideas/suggestions if anyone has them. However, struggling to think of too many players I'm entirely confident on here to be informed.

VOTE: Goldfish

[MalcolmTucker]

I've thought about this inform ability a bit more. It will most likely give us a confirmed town, because mafia wouldn't want to out themselves. I think based on yesterday the player we will be informed of is probably Flea/Malcolm, for being consensus townreads.

Happy to be checked if preferred.

[MalcolmTucker]

Flea voting for Titus slightly dampens my townread there. I think Goldfish is the most town for me.

I would like to inform Goldfish.

VOTE: Goldfish

I'd generally agree here. There's a part of me that's slightly hesitant though because Goldfish was ultimately on a town wagon I thought was quite bad...but I get not everyone on said wagon is going to be scum and players do make mistakes. Will put my vote on Goldfish for now, but I am open to alternative ideas/suggestions if anyone has them. However, struggling to think of too many players I'm entirely confident on here to be informed.

VOTE: Goldfish

Guys lets not get hasty, the mafia probably have their NK on who they think will get informed and will be trying to get that person voted. So I reckon goldfish might be dying soon, other possibilities are malcolm and flea. I was originally going to sit back and watch anyone overly eager to get someone informed but if I wait for everyone to give their opinion goldfish will probably be voted by then.

I would rather we vote furtive

but ive been considering the possibility that the scumread on titus then the turnaround might have been orchestrated for town cred but avoid being acused of TMI but i will need to read some stuff again to determine if that seems likely. We could also vote me

Also its kinda interesting that we got inform, i was not expecting that.

Surely Furtive would also be at risk of elimination in the night phase if they are town though? If they aren't mafia then they are making an active effort to solve and figure out the game here. I don't think their elimination (if not mafia) is any less likely than that of myself/Goldfish/Flea here. Remember, it's not as if mafia knew overnight who we'd potentially want to inform - so it would quite frankly just be complete coincidence if they happen to hit Goldfish in the night, to give an example. And ultimately I'm not sure I'd want to go for a less trusted player because there's then surely a greater chance that said player ends up turning out to be mafia.

I take your point re a possible Furtive turnaround, it's something I've very much not ruled out...but then if that's your concern, surely you'd be wary to give Furtive the inform ability?

[MalcolmTucker]

I assumed Goldfish would be informed after the inform phase but before the main vote to kill phase.

This is kind of a mod question - when is the information given to the voted player in the inform phase?

Yes would like to know this too, don't necessarily think it should impact our choice, because I don't think there's a glaringly obvious night elimination for scum at the moment provided we have our town reads right, but would be handy all the same for those uncertain about who to pick on the basis of this.

[MalcolmTucker]

I assumed Goldfish would be informed after the inform phase but before the main vote to kill phase.

This is kind of a mod question - when is the information given to the voted player in the inform phase?

it says in the setup, at the start of the next nightphase. otherwise really unfair to the mafia and you might as well just announce the bulletproof to everyone (well there is the possibility of goldfish being mafia and lying but i dont think so)

Ah, alright, cheers for clarifying.

[MalcolmTucker]

What if we think you aren't town?

Going to need more than "bad vibes" at this stage of the game.

A case against you has already been outlined on a number of occasions, I wouldn't be comfortable with this at all in the slightest to be honest.

[MalcolmTucker]

You need to be aware of how you're perceived and why. That's the first step to being involved in the town. If you just push your own agenda and ignore us all the time, it's not easy townread you. You didn't really engage with my idea of giving Goldfish the info, what do you think about that? I get that you prefer yourself, but do think Goldfish is scum? Or just a likely nightkill target? What's the issue here.

Yes this is my concern - Dunn appears more desperate to just get the info themselves instead of willingly engaging with alternative choices beyond Goldfish if they don't want them to be informed here. Dunn surely TR's more than one player here - if that's the case, why not suggest they are informed? We're not going to get anywhere if the game is just full of players all wanting to be informed themselves.

[MalcolmTucker]

I'm not at all convinced Cat is town for example but I thought their engagement was mostly okay and useful, even if I didn't necessarily completely agree with them on their logic re Furtive.

[MalcolmTucker]

Although a part of me does wonder if this is a bit bold from scum Dunn? I don't know, I guess if we have an Alianna/Dunn team (which would be my best bet at the moment), it would be feasible for one of the two of them to want to push receiving the inform role just to give a big push and see what happens.

[MalcolmTucker]

I'm not comfortable with:

1) Following early consensus

Because:

1b) I am worried we will target a town player who will see themselves as town. Which is not inherently clearing information, as mafia can lie about that as well

And:

2) Following the opinions of those who pushed to skip the elimination yesterday

Because:

2b)

Skipping the elimination was wrong and I explained why.

I think that the elimination landing on Titus who was also the choice for night kill changes things. There's only been one death out of 3. I didn't like the idea of 2 deaths out of 3 because mafia could force it to evens anyway. In the end, we ended up at evens by sheer chance. I would not normally have voted for Titus yesterday.

So that was kind of rambly but I think that mafia were both pushing to not eliminate and pushing somebody besides Titus yesterday.

As for Goldfish, I lean town.

But ultimately we managed to get through the town by only eliminating one townie when your approach could have easily seen three town players eliminated in one go if we'd guessed correctly. With what happened D1 I'm more convinced than I was early on when I was uncertain that we probably made the right choice by not going all-out and eliminating two players. Could have been a complete disaster if we'd done so and hit two town who weren't the scum night-kill. I'm fundamentally struggling to look at posts like these and see them as pro-town.

[MalcolmTucker]

I'm not comfortable with:

1) Following early consensus

Because:

1b) I am worried we will target a town player who will see themselves as town. Which is not inherently clearing information, as mafia can lie about that as well

And:

2) Following the opinions of those who pushed to skip the elimination yesterday

Because:

2b)

Skipping the elimination was wrong and I explained why.

I think that the elimination landing on Titus who was also the choice for night kill changes things. There's only been one death out of 3. I didn't like the idea of 2 deaths out of 3 because mafia could force it to evens anyway. In the end, we ended up at evens by sheer chance. I would not normally have voted for Titus yesterday.

So that was kind of rambly but I think that mafia were both pushing to not eliminate and pushing somebody besides Titus yesterday.

As for Goldfish, I lean town.

But ultimately we managed to get

through the town

by only eliminating one townie when your approach could have easily

seen three town players eliminated in one go if we'd guessed correctly

. With what happened D1 I'm more convinced than I was early on when I was uncertain that we probably made the right choice by not going all-out and eliminating two players. Could have been a complete disaster if we'd done so and hit two town who weren't the scum night-kill. I'm fundamentally struggling to look at posts like these and see them as pro-town.

Through the turn, this should read, and if we'd guessed incorrectly. I'm horrendous for typos, churn out posts too quickly sometimes.

[MalcolmTucker]

I don't buy that Alianna is confirmed town at all, ultimately the wagon never went through and Titus still got voted. Is there anything that rules out an Alianna/Flea combo here where Alianna backs out of voting Titus to then allow Flea to jump in, as an example?

[MalcolmTucker]

I really fundamentally don't think we should be giving this power to anyone who's been heavily suspected thus far, just far, far too risky. Need to consider the consequences if scum gets their hands on the inform power. Again I note that the people suggesting alternatives to Goldfish seem to be very much teetering around what they actually think of Goldfish as a player here.

[MalcolmTucker]

Sure, that's POSSIBLE, but to what end? Why not just have Flea hammer properly, instead of dancing around?

Because it surely looks worse if two mafia are unapologetically on a bandwagon for town, no? If they were a team the gambit worked for some players like yourself - try to convince everyone Alianna is less scummy by jumping off the wagon for a bit. It's not as if they ever tried to substantively push an alternative afterwards.

[MalcolmTucker]

I really fundamentally don't think we should be giving this power to anyone who's been heavily suspected thus far, just far, far too risky. Need to consider the consequences if scum gets their hands on the inform power. Again I note that the people suggesting alternatives to Goldfish seem to be very much teetering around what they actually think of Goldfish as a player here.

I think Goldfish is a very likely kill target on account of being a consensus townread.

At the present moment, I townread her as well, but it doesn't do any good to inform someone who gets shot.

It's fundamentally a leap in logic for me though to suggest Goldfish is the one who's likely to get shot. They look very townie to me and I think their analysis/posts have been solid, but I wouldn't say they've necessarily been leading the town in a way I think Furtive is trying to do, or in the way Titus briefly tried to do D1 when they strongly pushed for going for two kills. If Furtive is town, for example, they could potentially be in trouble. If scum somehow agree with you Alianna looks townie, they could have been the target...albeit I imagine that's unlikely. If someone's had a strong push so far that's not gotten a lot of attention they could be targeted. It's all hypothetical. Either way I reckon we need to be giving this inform power to a strong, consensus townread here because the alternative - where we hand it to someone we acknowledge could be scum - is far too risky.

[MalcolmTucker]

It's fundamentally a leap in logic for me though to suggest Goldfish is the one who's likely to get shot. They look very townie to me and I think their analysis/posts have been solid, but I wouldn't say they've necessarily been leading the town in a way I think Furtive is trying to do, or in the way Titus briefly tried to do D1 when they strongly pushed for going for two kills. If Furtive is town, for example, they could potentially be in trouble. If scum somehow agree with you Alianna looks townie, they could have been the target...albeit I imagine that's unlikely. If someone's had a strong push so far that's not gotten a lot of attention they could be targeted. It's all hypothetical. Either way I reckon we need to be giving this inform power to a strong, consensus townread here because the alternative - where we hand it to someone we acknowledge could be scum - is far too risky.

VOTE: Dunnstral

This is the best vote. You guys might not like it, but it's true. Mafia are very unlikely to have confirmed my alignment

It also makes things a lot simpler. All you have to do is figure out whether I am town or not. Whereas a vote for Goldfish means we need to figure out both if goldfish is town, and if furtive/malcolm/whoever are mafia trying to push it onto the townie who is also the bp,

Dunnstral - The thing is what I said about them maybe BP'ing the person they thought would get eliminated is also a possibility, although unlikely it still means you're a worse candidate than furtive and me. We also very unlikely to get our alignment confirmed but are also are unlikely to be eliminated today. Also ur sus.

Malcolm if you think furtive is at risk of being NK because of how much they are leading town you could always vote for me

also anyone we vote for we should acknowledge they could be scum. We havent gotten any solid info this game, yet. I do think goldfish is town though. in 578 you said we shouldnt be giving it to anyone who has been heavily suspected except goldfish has been, by RR.
As for the thing before about furtives turnaround on Titus being orchestrated I don't think so. I had forgotten the specific tone of them and after looking back I doubt they were forced. The changed opinion on titus looks like it happened really quickly but it checks out with the fact they waited to give a readlist because they were putting effort into reading everyones iso's.

My issue is I'm not particularly confident on you being town - I think your posting on D2 has been quite reasonable and engaging but I had you down as one of my top three possible scum on D1. I'm also - as a general rule - not too keen on players being the first to suggest they take on the inform power. Goldfish is my preferred option at the moment, for example, and they seem keen to take it on, but would have been less immediately trusting had Furtive not made the suggestion first.

[MalcolmTucker]

Although a part of me does wonder if this is a bit bold from scum Dunn? I don't know, I guess if we have an Alianna/Dunn team (which would be my best bet at the moment), it would be feasible for one of the two of them to want to push receiving the inform role just to give a big push and see what happens.

Dunnstral and Radical Rat have both done bold things in day 2. I would normally read that as town but with the fact that they know they are likely to be eliminated anyway if they played it safe I dont think any 'too bold' reasons should be used today.

Fair, I'm just always wary of ascribing scum reads to someone who does something that perhaps feels overtly scummy or anti-town...generally I'm aware scum like to blend in and don't want to appear obvious or unhelpful. Bit presuming Goldfish is indeed town it's quite possible Dunn (if they're scum) was panicking a bit and throwing a gambit out there in the hope someone else would jump on it.

[MalcolmTucker]

Sorry I've had a really busy weekend, will be more active tomorrow.

Still very much feel we should not be informing Alianna here, far too risky.

[MalcolmTucker]

I think Alianna would be a better elimination than RR of those two. I've not been particularly keen on RR's push for Alianna to be informed but I reckon it'd have been too blatant for a scum partnership to pull off personally. I disagree with RR's read on Alianna but it's probably a genuine, if flawed, one.

I'd also quite happily vote for Dunn, I reckon there's a decent chance we hit scum there.

[MalcolmTucker]

I think Alianna would be a better elimination than RR of those two. I've not been particularly keen on RR's push for Alianna to be informed but I reckon it'd have been too blatant for a scum partnership to pull off personally. I disagree with RR's read on Alianna but it's probably a genuine, if flawed, one.

I'd also quite happily vote for Dunn, I reckon there's a decent chance we hit scum there.

I agree that I need to throw out Alianna/Radical Rat, after the inform thing.

I think it makes for Alianna/Dunnstral or Dunnstral/Radical Rat, which would put Dunnstral in my focus.

Yeah Alianna/Dunn would strike me as the most likely team right now, albeit with the caveat sometimes hard to be 100% confident with associatives.

[MalcolmTucker]

Alianna, out of interest, where do you sit on Dunn now? I thought your attempt to clear/TR them early on was very weak but I see you're now not so sure on that given Titus' elimination. You've not particularly pushed Dunn too strongly, I'd say, given you don't seem to think they're town, and I'm wary this could be an attempt at distancing, but I'd potentially be more likely to TR you if you're willing to look at a Dunn wagon. Of course, if Dunn was town, you'd then inversely look a bit scummier for this if you were suddenly willing to jump on it, so interested to hear where your thoughts are.

[MalcolmTucker]

Question for everyone. If you had to vote either Dunnstral or Radical Rat today, who would you vote?

Dunn, I still TR Radical Rat to a degree despite disagreeing with them on some things. I feel like their play here (like wanting Alianna to be informed) would draw too much attention to them if scum, where we disagree I think they're just misguided.

Dunn's readslist and general approach here just feels a bit lazy/undercooked at the moment, as if they're aware they're under pressure and don't want to come under additional fire.

[MalcolmTucker]

Feels like the game is very slow at the moment, unsure if that's just scum potentially under suspicion just trying to lie low or not. I'd expect players like Alianna/Dunn to be making a stronger case for alternative eliminations here given they're under suspicion/have been under suspicion but doesn't feel like that's been the case this turn until now. Especially with Alianna, who was much more active on D1.

[MalcolmTucker]

Anyway, I'll vote Dunn for now.

VOTE: Dunnstral

But would still be behind an Alianna wagon if it comes up unless I can be convinced otherwise. Still open to alternative ideas, as always, but no player under suspicion doing much to sway where I'm at right now.

[MalcolmTucker]

Great. I think Alianna is the best vote for today, just ahead of Radical Rat.

VOTE: Alianna

Why?

@Dunnstral can you give a readlist and explian some of your thought process? I feel like most of your posts are about if we should double elim or not or defending your vote on Titus. I don't scumread you for voting Titus and originally to me her posts looked very scummy but I had more of a gut feeling that she was town, I get why you voted her though. What I do scumread you for is the lack of solve-driven input from you and the lack of expressing any townreads.

Towny: Goldfish, Alianna, Flea
Null: Radical Rat, radital cat
Scummy: FurtiveGlance, Malcolm

That is where I am at with reads

As for thought process, what do you want to know?

These reads are really strange.
You think that:
1) Yesterday was town/town
2) I knew that and didn't want to condemn the nightkill
3) I loudly townread the nightkill and begged for a pivot to another town
4) Malcolm and I have paired openly and townread each other all game as the worst scumteam ever

Scumcase me. How did you get here?

How the heck did you get to 4?

I think Alianna would be a better elimination than RR of those two. I've not been particularly keen on RR's push for Alianna to be informed but I reckon it'd have been too blatant for a scum partnership to pull off personally. I disagree with RR's read on Alianna but it's probably a genuine, if flawed, one.

I'd also quite happily vote for Dunn, I reckon there's a decent chance we hit scum there.

I agree that I need to throw out Alianna/Radical Rat, after the inform thing.

I think it makes for Alianna/Dunnstral or Dunnstral/Radical Rat, which would put Dunnstral in my focus.

Yeah Alianna/Dunn would strike me as the most likely team right now, albeit with the caveat sometimes hard to be 100% confident with associatives.

Break down the associatives you have for me.

Question for everyone. If you had to vote either Dunnstral or Radical Rat today, who would you vote?

If I

had

to, Dunn.

Sorry for quoting the whole thing - but probably easier since the game has moved on a fair bit and I'd not replied yet: I'd personally have my main scum team down as Alianna/Dunn at the moment personally.

You could potentially be partners with Alianna as well, although I think your play has generally been a bit more townie even if I disagree with you on certain reads, I feeel like you've made a genuine effort to solve in the past few pages after you were partially absent for legit reasons.

Cat could still be mafia I guess, but not seeing an obvious team there at the moment.

This is also partially why I struggle to see Furtive mafia in this scenario - struggle to see who would be their partner given I TR Goldfish and Furtive has probably TR'd them a bit too strongly for the two of them to be partners alongside each other.

[MalcolmTucker]

From a meta POV I've played with Furtive once before and I'd say they approached the game in a slightly manner to this as town - they don't take accusations well in a way that can be frustrating for other players if you think they're mafia trying to get out of being eliminated, and they can potentially get a bit bogged down in their own logic. Certainly some of the posts above strike me as more desperate town than manipulative mafia. But others may have a more detailed meta from other games.

From this game - obviously post count doesn't make a player town or scum, but I feel Furtive has been making an active effort to solve when when potentially wrong in a way that's probably driven the game forward and helped open it up in a way that's not necessarily beneficial for scum.

Think D1. Furtive positioned themselves against the double elimination, while also initially suspecting Titus. They did then back off Titus, but would it have been wise for scum to both position against the double elim and also push for Titus, at least initially? It doesn't feel like a strategy that would have been particularly conductive to scum D1, unless I'm missing something, or unless their partner was incredibly in favour of double elimination and positioning against Titus perhaps, but I'm not sure there were exactly too many players doing that who could be paired with Furtive.

[MalcolmTucker]

On second thought, the fact that your thoughts have been so all-over-the-place today is probably town-indicative.

UNVOTE:

I'll see myself out now.

Why do I do this to myself?

I felt like the Furtive wagon developed incredibly quickly, but not sure I'm keen on Alianna then jumping off the wagon so soon again, strikes me as potentially panicky scum not wanting to be responsible for a miselim if Furtive does come back town if/when they get put out.

Their reasoning here that Furtive's thoughts are all over the place...doesn't exactly strike me as completely true either? I think Furtive's been open to other ideas within their PoE but I don't exactly think their thoughts have been incredibly contradictory for the most part, they have been pretty clear on where they've sided on most major issues in the game.

[MalcolmTucker]

And the way furtive has just hyperfocused on "Well, eliminating Town, that's scummy" to the exclusion of all other circumstances is just... Bad.

It's exactly why I initially sussed him for saying we should just quickhammer whoever leads a Town wagon.

And sure, that was a joke that I'd misinterpreted, and yet here is that same philosophy being pushed seriously.

Is it really though? Furtive isn't exactly arguing in favour of quickhammering...does your logic here suggest a player cannot push for the elimination of someone who was on the Titus wagon? Clearly there's some misguided town on there but it's pretty conceivable that someone from the mafia might have gone on there, or shown interest in eliminating Titus at some point, no?

[MalcolmTucker]

And the way furtive has just hyperfocused on "Well, eliminating Town, that's scummy" to the exclusion of all other circumstances is just... Bad.

It's exactly why I initially sussed him for saying we should just quickhammer whoever leads a Town wagon.

And sure, that was a joke that I'd misinterpreted, and yet here is that same philosophy being pushed seriously.

Is it really though? Furtive isn't exactly arguing in favour of quickhammering...does your logic here suggest a player cannot push for the elimination of someone who was on the Titus wagon? Clearly there's some misguided town on there but it's pretty conceivable that someone from the mafia might have gone on there, or shown interest in eliminating Titus at some point, no?

Malcolm you've townread Radical Rat all game - 333 for instance. Has this changed? Can you vote Radical Rat today?

I'm not too sure, my gut still says RR is town even though I find myself in disagreement with them on a lot. I'll give your case on them a proper full look over but can't say I'm convinced - a lot of their play has been quite erratic but it feels like a scattertown type approach a bit where their logic isn't too consistent in a way that makes me feel they're being open town instead of careful scum, if that makes sense.

[MalcolmTucker]

The most important event is the elimination. Usually town want to vote out mafia and mafia want to vote out town. So yes, the most useful analysis I can give is that the Titus wagon is scummier than non-Titus voters. You're trying to muddy the waters by using the intricacies of this particular setup to make people think we should scumread people who defended town and townread people who voted town, it's in direct contradiction with the law of mafia. You are under arrest.

This setup includes a pre-determined nightkill, scum wouldn't want to eliminate the nightkill because then they only get 1 dead townie vs two. Which means that in this setup it's not as simple as mafia want to vote town, town want to vote mafia, because mafia won't want to vote particular townies.

I don't have understand why you refuse to see this, it's not a minor intricacy of the setup it's actually really a important and totally relevant to our situation on day 1.

And I don't like how you are scumreading RR for arguing this when other players (myself included) have said it before.

Scum wouldn't want to eliminate their nightkill, but if scum (say Alianna) was at risk of elimination then it's possible they could've pivoted to get Titus out at the very least and ensure they remained safe. At the very least it's damage control, and they still manage to ensure one townie is eliminated if nothing else. Flea hammering is why I'd think there's potential for a Alianna/Flea team, for example, albeit my read on that is lessened by my suspicion of Dunn, who I reckon has a strong chance of coming back as scum.

[MalcolmTucker]

On second thought, the fact that your thoughts have been so all-over-the-place today is probably town-indicative.

UNVOTE:

I'll see myself out now.

Why do I do this to myself?

I felt like the Furtive wagon developed incredibly quickly, but not sure I'm keen on Alianna then jumping off the wagon so soon again, strikes me as potentially panicky scum not wanting to be responsible for a miselim if Furtive does come back town if/when they get put out.

Their reasoning here that Furtive's thoughts are all over the place...doesn't exactly strike me as completely true either? I think Furtive's been open to other ideas within their PoE but I don't exactly think their thoughts have been incredibly contradictory for the most part, they have been pretty clear on where they've sided on most major issues in the game.

No, I townread Alianna for this. Scum would probably plan where they wanted to push and not do this. To me it just seems like Alianna's actually thinking about the game.

I don't know, maybe I'm a bit tunnelled here but 721 feels a bit too self-aware to me - as if Alianna is trying to create the effect of looking indecisive when moving off a wagon which in this hypothetical scenario would be town. I mean, if that's the approach they're going for here...it's certainly working. Scum can be hesitant at times, especially if they felt a change of tack or a different approach was advisable.

I think you're making a lot of sense and I'm leaning town on you, for example, but if Alianna were to come in and vote for Radical Rat, it'd seem perfectly feasible for me that you two were a potential team and had decided Radical Rat was the easier and more advisable push than Furtive, who may then back off you a bit since they're also keen for RR to be eliminated.

I'm intrigued to hear where Alianna is re Dunn here again - they hinted at some suspicion for Dunn a while back but then quickly backed off the slot, and opted for Furtive instead. If they aren't willing to explore that at all then I'll feel like it's quite suspect and that they're reluctant to strongly push for any townie in case they come out looking bad as a result.

[MalcolmTucker]

On second thought, the fact that your thoughts have been so all-over-the-place today is probably town-indicative.

UNVOTE:

I'll see myself out now.

Why do I do this to myself?

A bit late to the party but these posts scream town at me, scum Alianna would have no reason to do this,

and you can see that she KNOWS it looks scummy.

This is also really typical Alianna town meta, she's done this before.

That's what throws me a little bit reading it though. I'm really not keen on the self-awareness, insofar as it feels to me like scum Alianna could potentially be compensating for their lack of certainty on who to push with posts deliberately trying to make them appear more townie. Feel like I really need to see more from Alianna on Dunn here because otherwise their potential vote on Radical Rat feels quite opportunistic to me - it's not a slot they've pushed particularly hard and feels like it could be a concerted push for scum away from Furtive, who scum may have judged to be a more difficult elimination. Interested in any past meta which contradicts this though.

[MalcolmTucker]

Hmm, the fact I've been cleared does make me wonder here if scum are trying to potentially misdirect me, or if they were at the start of the last turn when they picked me to have my alignment given. Given my main suspect has been Dunn (and still is based on play alone), it does make me wonder if Furtive is perhaps mafia and wanted to clear me since I'd largely TR'd them so far.

On the last vote, their suspicion of Radical Rat was at least consistent and so it wasn't a purely opportunistic vote - but I don't think there was anyone on the wagon who was necessarily all that opportunistic, but that doesn't rule out scum of course - quite possible for a scum player to have made a concerted push on Radical Rat early on in the hope it would go through at some point. But I don't think Furtive's continual suspicion there makes them look any better, is what I'm saying. Cat, Alianna and Goldfish all gave solid reasons for voting Radical Rat out even though I personally got townie vibes for them.

Personally I'd want us to track either Alianna or Cat here. Alianna's had fleeting suspicion throughout the game but it faded away a bit on D2. My own clear gives me some doubt but I still think Alianna/Dunn is a very possible team. Alianna had some suspicion on Dunn in D2 and then just gradually backed away from it. On Cat, I think their play was a lot more solid and felt quite townie on D2, but very much in a way that would make me worry it's mafia playing a clever game here.

[MalcolmTucker]

@Goldie and anyone else who hasn’t voiced an answer to this yet

Who do you think is the scumteam?

We should decide who we are eliming before we decide who to track.
I townread you and furtive. I'm sus of dunnstral as an individual but don't see who their partner could be. That leaves Goldfish and Malcolm as absurd as that might sound. I think I want to eliminate goldfish because she's scum and in the case she isnt scum she's probably the NK so its not an instant loss. I know she would not shy away from trying to get herself informed and pulling something like this as scum.

I feel as though they planned to get Goldfish informed and pocket Furtive and have goldfish say that Malcolm is the Bulletproof. I think they made someone else, a real townie, the actual bulletproof though just in case goldfish wasnt informed. This is a bit of a conspiracy theory and I'll read some stuff before I commit to this.

VOTE: Malcolm

I don't think voting to track me here makes all that much sense personally. I know I'm town and I've been given the clear in this case. Granted we can't fully trust Goldfish yet but I'm not sure mafia play this too riskily by clearing a different townie from the one they actually meant to clear, if that makes sense. Scum are in a good position with it being 4 vs 2 and I imagine they'd be much more keen on just trying to manipulate and sway the thread this turn to achieve their desired results.

[MalcolmTucker]

Goldfish could also be paired with Dunnstal, they hardly mention each other in their isos and they both have townleans on each other. Also Goldfish has townleaned/townread everyone alive right now

On this, what do you think of Dunn's attempt to get themselves informed at the start of D2 when Goldfish was getting votes for this? On the one hand it could be seen as a distancing attempt I suppose with scum not wanting to be too eager to inform scum. But my issue here is that nobody was being perceived as particularly scummy for wanting to inform Goldfish - they were being read as town (for legit reasons I believe), and it would've been fairly easy for Dunn to just force that through to ensure scum Goldfish was informed. I'm not sure that's something where scum would have particularly hesitated if they had the chance of being informed to be honest, given the obvious advantages of immediately being able to avoid a townie discovering who they are.

[MalcolmTucker]

Is Dunn/Furtive a possible team here? I can't shake the idea of Dunn as scum, but Furtive being their partner would make sense with me being the townie chosen as the informed if Goldfish is town too - Dunn/Alianna is my most likely team based on gameplay alone, but Furtive being in there and choosing me as a misdirect hoping I'd be onside would figure a bit more. If we can hit scum in either of them then Alianna/Cat as our track as backup strikes me as a reasonable approach.

[MalcolmTucker]

Flea's elimination could also make sense from the POV of a Dunn/Furtive team here for me. Flea was a bit suspect of Dunn toward the end of D1. Flea clashed with Furtive on D2 but unless I've missed something reading back I don't think Furtive exactly pushed too strongly on the slot, which obviously wouldn't be advisable with Flea being the night elimination. Although granted Flea's activity was sporadic so it would have probably been a fairly difficult slot for mafia to push consistently anyway.

[MalcolmTucker]

Spoiler: We don't need another hero!

As the sun set 8 people went to their houses. In the morning.... 8 still remained.

The Day 2 Ability Phase shall be: Inform
The mafia has chosen a player, vote a player you want to learn the alignment of the player chosen by the mafia!


Votecount 2.0.0

Day 2: Taste- So many tasty things to eat

Not Voting: Radical Rat, MalcolmTucker, furtiveglance, GoldfishFromTheMoon, Dunnstral, Cat.Jpeg, Alianna, Flea The Magician

With 8 alive it takes 5 to make a decision.
Deadline:(expired on 2022-05-17 00:07:08)

Beautiful. Sorry Titus <3 so this shot is either random or someone who played with Titus before knows she powers up as the game goes on.
Dunn isn't the type to make that shot I don't think, I think Rat might but might suggest it more than push it.
Doesn't eliminate either of them and both are under close watch today.

Let it be said that I was online when the daystart was posted

Let it be said that I also was online when the day start was posted. Is that relevant though?

LAMIST much?

Flea voting for Titus slightly dampens my townread there. I think Goldfish is the most town for me.

I would like to inform Goldfish.

VOTE: Goldfish

Hoping you elaborate on this.

Spoiler: We don't need to know the way home

Wagon on me was interesting and draws parallels with 2092 but I don’t want to comment too much until I’ve thought more.

Again, hoping you elaborate here.

I've thought about this inform ability a bit more. It will most likely give us a confirmed town, because mafia wouldn't want to out themselves. I think based on yesterday the player we will be informed of is probably Flea/Malcolm, for being consensus townreads.

I think we've actually forced mafias hand here which amuses me. Fun thing is finding out who they've cleared.
For me Goldfish is not the one to inform here, but, Mafia also cannot lie without outing themselves unless they "clear" themselves. So optimal scumplay here is vote their NK or vote themselves.

Spoiler: All we want is life beyond

I find it humorous that because Titus was NK'd it's almost like we didn't eliminate twice. They would hate that. Im going to look at the game again with the knowledge 2 people knew Titus was the nightkill. The final vote count has me, furtive, malcolm, and alianna not voting titus but i dont think thats too useful because i think the mafia (at least one of them) ended up voting titus in the end to avoid getting voted themselves (rr or dunnstral). Also once again I townlean alianna for how absurd it was for them to unvote on Titus. Early in the game though might yeild more information.

Titus is screaming at me from the dead thread. I can promise you that. 3 eliminations become one and we're on evens which is what I was trying to avoid.

You need to be aware of how you're perceived and why. That's the first step to being involved in the town. If you just push your own agenda and ignore us all the time, it's not easy townread you. You didn't really engage with my idea of giving Goldfish the info, what do you think about that? I get that you prefer yourself, but do think Goldfish is scum? Or just a likely nightkill target? What's the issue here.

Mhmm. Why pick on Dunn and not goldfish for this?

Spoiler: The thunderdome.

We should stop and think this through.

As I mentioned just before the end of D1, scum would have Not wanted Titus to be eliminated. While this doesn't 100% clear her wagon, it's probably safe to assume that at least one scum would have been trying to redirect, and Titus's main counter wagon was Alianna, which saw moderate success, albeit not enough. From this, it's a pretty safe bet that Alianna is Town, and since we know she's been a contentious slot, it's more likely that scum have her lined up for elimination than nightkill.

VOTE: Alianna

Actually a good shout. Hoping we get more solid stances from Alianna though and I'm not entirely sold without a reread there.

We should stop and think this through.

As I mentioned just before the end of D1, scum would have Not wanted Titus to be eliminated. While this doesn't 100% clear her wagon, it's probably safe to assume that at least one scum would have been trying to redirect, and Titus's main counter wagon was Alianna, which saw moderate success, albeit not enough. From this, it's a pretty safe bet that Alianna is Town, and since we know she's been a contentious slot, it's more likely that scum have her lined up for elimination than nightkill.

VOTE: Alianna

This logic is bizarre and cyclical because it assumes town!Alianna initially. The way I see it, Alianna was the counter wagon to confirmed town. That's the only thing I care about. Alianna does not get towncred for being the counter wagon to the nightkill, because that implies that me/Malcolm are scum. Which is untrue/I would be shocked if Malcolm was mafia. So Alianna is no more town than yesterday for me.

Your logic is amazing.

Rat gains cred, Dunn gains sus, cat/malc/furtive incriminating each other? huh.

Flea thought you were more suspect at this point in the game. They said it was based on vibes later. Not incredulous to me you could have been worried about this as scum if Flea started pushing you harder further down the line.

In normal circumstances I'd be as confident as is possible of team with you and Alianna at this point to be honest, but the fact I've been informed makes me question that - if scum want me to be known as town, they presumably want to misdirect me. From a meta POV whenever I've been town near or at the end of a game I've typically ended up making the wrong choice for who was town/scum, so if it's a player who knows that about me it's feasible they'd have wanted me to lead town in the wrong direction. I've played a game with Furtive where this exact thing happened which makes me warier of them too.

[MalcolmTucker]

I don't think you being on the Titus wagon D1 exonerates you either, it's again quite feasible to me that one scum potentially jumped on there for some possible town-cred once it became likely, because they knew the night-kill wouldn't go through.

Alianna jumping off this is notable, but they were keen on voting out Titus until pretty near the end of the turn, so despite disliking their U-turn I'm uncertain that two scum would have pushed here harder. Furtive was initially keen on Titus but then very much swerved away from that line of thinking.

[MalcolmTucker]

Day 2 starts at post 506

The post you quote above is during day 2. Flea was chosen as the night kill before they made that post.

Ah, you're correct, my apologies, getting slightly mixed up there. Still possible you could have made the kill or been in the team who ordered it obviously, but you get more town points given I confused the context there.

[MalcolmTucker]

I suppose at this point in the game if mafia are under pressure Furtive could look to sacrifice Dunn. Or am I overthinking it there? Given gameplay/me being confirmed as town I really struggle to see a Dunn/Alianna team despite having suspected both of them individually.

[MalcolmTucker]

Kind of spewing out thoughts a bit because this is a confusing place to be at in this point in the game. Scum doing a good job making me doubt myself/my reads here.

[MalcolmTucker]

Furtive/Cat is a possibility I guess, my only issue is, would the two of them be as bold as to push Radical Rat as strongly as they did together?

[MalcolmTucker]

Cat's scumcase on Radical Rat could have been seen as opportunistic, but from what I can remember they had been pretty consistent on suspecting the slot before they properly cased them. Much as I didn't want to vote them out, the wagon on RR didn't feel all that opportunistic at the time.

[MalcolmTucker]

Dunn, my issue on Alianna with you is that they hinted at suspecting you in D2 and then never followed it through at all. Feels like they were very much hedging their bets there.

[MalcolmTucker]

I mean it's my issue in that I think it's why you could be teammates. It felt like Alianna was hedging their bets on you at a point when you could have been eliminated but then backed off when it became apparent Furtive and Radical Rat were preferable alternatives and they could feasibly jump onto the RR wagon.

[MalcolmTucker]

Why would Alianna want to eliminate me instead of two town being voted at deadline

How could I have been eliminated when nobody was voting me

That is not what I am saying. I am saying that Alianna was briefly suspicious of you, but never followed this up at all. This can be scummy - you were under a bit of heat for some of D2 and Alianna could have wanted to hedge their bets if you were teammates. But looking back through D1 seems like it may be somewhat unlikely given voting patterns.

[MalcolmTucker]

I think your responses this turn have been mostly reasonable for what it's worth - and I can't see you/Alianna as a team pushing so strongly for Cat to be tracked early on unless you're very, very confident that you can sway us all and win the game here. But it increasingly looks like a lot of stuff would have to align for that to end up being the case.

[MalcolmTucker]

I don't think you were quite at this point of being in danger of elimination, just that a wagon could have feasibly formed had, say, Furtive been less keen on Radical Rat. With eight players it wouldn't have taken a huge amount for a wagon to start building had I been able to convince one or two other players to get on board with me.

[MalcolmTucker]

I already thought Malcolm was town, and I still think Goldfish is town even though they the confirm is one-way.

That leaves [Alianna, Dunnstral, Cat.Jpeg].

I can see either Alianna or Cat being town, so Dunnstral is mafia in either scenario. I'll probably push Dunnstral today.

For when you're on Furtive - interested to hear any updated thoughts re this. Dunn/Cat could have been feasible aside from some early game squabbling, but Dunn's early track vote for Cat D3 doesn't strike me as particularly conductive for mafia. You'd think mafia would at least want to make an attempt to shift the track onto town, no? Unless mafia think it's advantageous to have one of their own tracked because it basically removes them from the elimination pool? That's the only way I could see them as a team here.

[MalcolmTucker]

@Goldie and anyone else who hasn’t voiced an answer to this yet

Who do you think is the scumteam?

It's Cat/Dunnstral. or it's You/Dunnstral. or You/Cat. or Goldfish/Malcolm (?).

This is all very confusing, I went back to Cat/Dunnstral but their interactions don't look paired from early on. Maybe it's just clever distancing.

Regardless of all of that, we don't need to solve the game today, just vote one mafia. If we Track Cat and Elim Dunnstral, it's probably a town win.

Can you address my post above re this? I'm not entirely against Dunn/Cat but unsure whether mafia votes to track one of their own in this scenario. However, from thinking about it there could be reasons why that's potentially beneficial to scum I think? Provided they survive of course. In such a scenario, if Dunn was scum, they'd aim for a Cat track and to eliminate you.

[MalcolmTucker]

Also remember in your above scenario Dunn needs to be scum of course. Even if Cat is actually mafia, does the track not end up being useless if we don't hit scum during the vote?

[MalcolmTucker]

Also remember in your above scenario Dunn needs to be scum of course. Even if Cat is actually mafia, does the track not end up being useless if we don't hit scum during the vote?

Can you see Alianna/Cat?

I can't at the moment, their interactions look like scum!Cat/town!Alianna to me. They don't look paired at all, nor do I scumread either of them strongly enough to vote them over Dunnstral.

I'd need to look back to come to a verdict on Cat/Alianna. Like Dunn, my wariness there comes from the idea they ploughed right in immediately and voted for Cat to be tracked. But again, as outlined above, suppose for mafia they could bus their own partner and it brings down the elim pool by one.

[MalcolmTucker]

Hmm, the fact I've been cleared does make me wonder here if scum are trying to potentially misdirect me, or if they were at the start of the last turn when they picked me to have my alignment given. Given my main suspect has been Dunn (and still is based on play alone), it does make me wonder if Furtive is perhaps mafia and wanted to clear me since I'd largely TR'd them so far.

On the last vote, their suspicion of Radical Rat was at least consistent and so it wasn't a purely opportunistic vote - but I don't think there was anyone on the wagon who was necessarily all that opportunistic, but that doesn't rule out scum of course - quite possible for a scum player to have made a concerted push on Radical Rat early on in the hope it would go through at some point. But I don't think Furtive's continual suspicion there makes them look any better, is what I'm saying. Cat, Alianna and Goldfish all gave solid reasons for voting Radical Rat out even though I personally got townie vibes for them.

Personally I'd want us to track either Alianna or Cat here. Alianna's had fleeting suspicion throughout the game but it faded away a bit on D2. My own clear gives me some doubt but I still think Alianna/Dunn is a very possible team. Alianna had some suspicion on Dunn in D2 and then just gradually backed away from it. On Cat, I think their play was a lot more solid and felt quite townie on D2, but very much in a way that would make me worry it's mafia playing a clever game here.

Mafia had to pick someone who wasn't going to be eliminated (otherwise they reduce their possible miselimination options), and you've been widely townread (apart from by Cat). It's probably as simple as that.

As for you townreading me, 1) appreciate it and 2) there must be reasons that you townread me.

I've TR'd you so far because even when you've been wrong I feel like you've been trying to drive the game forward or come up with solves when others have perhaps been more content to sit back. My issue now is - you were wrong in a way that's been beneficial to scum, and I now need to work out if that was genuine townie being wrong or scum successfully managing to sway our opinions.

[MalcolmTucker]

Intent to hammer

, I don't mind being conf town.

Only issue is if we get the scum wrong here then by the time you're hypothetically confirmed town the game is over. But I've agreed until now you'd be a solid track and so wouldn't have any objections to this going through.

[MalcolmTucker]

Hmm, the fact I've been cleared does make me wonder here if scum are trying to potentially misdirect me, or if they were at the start of the last turn when they picked me to have my alignment given. Given my main suspect has been Dunn (and still is based on play alone), it does make me wonder if Furtive is perhaps mafia and wanted to clear me since I'd largely TR'd them so far.

On the last vote, their suspicion of Radical Rat was at least consistent and so it wasn't a purely opportunistic vote - but I don't think there was anyone on the wagon who was necessarily all that opportunistic, but that doesn't rule out scum of course - quite possible for a scum player to have made a concerted push on Radical Rat early on in the hope it would go through at some point. But I don't think Furtive's continual suspicion there makes them look any better, is what I'm saying. Cat, Alianna and Goldfish all gave solid reasons for voting Radical Rat out even though I personally got townie vibes for them.

Personally I'd want us to track either Alianna or Cat here. Alianna's had fleeting suspicion throughout the game but it faded away a bit on D2. My own clear gives me some doubt but I still think Alianna/Dunn is a very possible team. Alianna had some suspicion on Dunn in D2 and then just gradually backed away from it. On Cat, I think their play was a lot more solid and felt quite townie on D2, but very much in a way that would make me worry it's mafia playing a clever game here.

Mafia had to pick someone who wasn't going to be eliminated (otherwise they reduce their possible miselimination options), and you've been widely townread (apart from by Cat). It's probably as simple as that.

As for you townreading me, 1) appreciate it and 2) there must be reasons that you townread me.

I've TR'd you so far because even when you've been wrong I feel like you've been trying to drive the game forward or come up with solves when others have perhaps been more content to sit back. My issue now is - you were wrong in a way that's been beneficial to scum, and I now need to work out if that was genuine townie being wrong or scum successfully managing to sway our opinions.

The way I see it, I probably haven't been that wrong (having scumread Dunnstral all game) and got unlucky with Radical Rat.

Quite possibly, just understandably wary you've potentially been trying to pocket me as scum, and confirming me as town could have easily been a way for you to try and take advantage of that.

[MalcolmTucker]

Is Cat planning to hammer? Seems like nobody has any objections to this going through.

[MalcolmTucker]

Alright, if nobody has any objections, and Cat doesn't want to strike - I'll also put in an intent to hammer here. Although Cat can have first choice on that if they so wish.

[MalcolmTucker]

Alright, seems we have a consensus now. No point in holding things up.

VOTE: Cat.jpeg

[MalcolmTucker]

The problem with voting out Goldfish is even have to be confident we're voting out scum here because if Goldfish is town and not the NK, we've basically lost the game for ourselves. It seems like an incredibly roundabout approach to eliminate Goldfish in the hope we'll hit the night-kill even if they are town, ultimately I feel like we need to eliminate the candidate we're most confident is scum here and I struggle to see how that is Goldfish, who has been widely townread so far. And even if Goldfish was the town night-kill and we had another turn to eliminate scum, we'd still be in a 3 v 2 situation which would be quite advantageous for mafia. So I'm not at all comfortable voting there. Primarily because I town-read them anyway, but also because the logic behind the elimination doesn't make sense, and tries to swerve around making an actual scum-read.

I'm suspicious of Cat for pushing it there but Dunn gets some town points for me above since their explanation is reasonable and they weren't just opportunistically trying to get rid of a slot they've pushed.

[MalcolmTucker]

I know you have be scumreading Furtive for a long time but I don't see what makes you so confident they are scum.

You have hinted you think I'm their partner but im not so I just dont see who they could be partnered with, except Goldfish.

Where do you actually stand on Furtive yourself though? I've TR'd Furtive so far but can increasingly see a world where you/Furtive are scum if I've been wrong on Dunn, which is something I'm still somewhat uncertain on. But even if you do believe a Furtive/Goldfish team is possible, why is Goldfish necessarily the better elimination? I'm suspicious here because Furtive was one of the main two elimination candidates last turn, they managed to barely survive, and now despite them pushing a townie which allowed them to remain in the game, there's a suggestion they could be scum but that we still shouldn't vote there. I personally think it's really got to be between Dunn/Furtive here unless someone can make a better case on Alianna or Goldfish than what I'm seeing at the moment. Thinking outside the box is useful and warranted if we can come up with a good theory, but I'm wary of any sudden diversion away from someone we believe to be scum without good reason personally.

[MalcolmTucker]

Essentially I suppose my split is between Dunn who I've suspected of being mafia for most of the game based on their play thus far, and Furtive who I've largely TR'd based on their play but who would potentially align as mafia alongside Cat given where the game has gone. I suppose it's a bit heart vs head - my gut read has largely been Dunn, albeit with posts/evidence to back it up, but my head is telling me a Cat/Furtive team here makes sense.

There's a world where I can see Furtive making the kill on the basis they were a likely elimination, so they wouldn't be tracked once they picked that power, and we'd get no info on Cat being mafia, if I'm reading correctly into how that works. Once the push was made for Cat to be tracked they weren't necessarily too unhappy with that because in this scenario Cat didn't make the kill anyway. From there the goal would be to push for a townie to be eliminated, whether it be Dunn/Goldfish, which would allow them to win the game. And even if Furtive does get eliminated, they have an insurance policy they can fall back on where Cat is still in the game, but is perhaps TR'd.

I also think there's an argument where this works alongside me being picked as the confirmed townie overnight, because I'd been aligning with Furtive on some views, and while I'd had some suspicions of Cat early game I'd stated I felt like their play was reasonable last turn. In this scenario they'd be hoping I stick to voting for Dunn, and if Cat eventually moves onto that wagon as well they only need one more of Goldfish/Alianna to get onboard and push through the elimination.

I'm going to vote for Furtive at the moment, although obviously this is subject to change - I'll case Dunn again soon to see where I stand on them because I'm still wary to let them through this turn knowing we'd potentially be done for if they're scum. But right now a Cat/Furtive team is starting to seem more feasible to me based on current play.

VOTE: FurtiveGlance

[MalcolmTucker]

I do want to hear from Furtive re the above though - they think Dunn is scum, so in this case who do they think is the partner? I don't believe they are particularly confident on that at the moment (and it's one of the things that's making me doubt my read too).

[MalcolmTucker]

Essentially I suppose my split is between Dunn who I've suspected of being mafia for most of the game based on their play thus far, and Furtive who I've largely TR'd based on their play but who would potentially align as mafia alongside Cat given where the game has gone. I suppose it's a bit heart vs head - my gut read has largely been Dunn, albeit with posts/evidence to back it up, but my head is telling me a Cat/Furtive team here makes sense.

There's a world where I can see Furtive making the kill on the basis they were a likely elimination, so they wouldn't be tracked once they picked that power, and we'd get no info on Cat being mafia, if I'm reading correctly into how that works. Once the push was made for Cat to be tracked they weren't necessarily too unhappy with that because in this scenario Cat didn't make the kill anyway. From there the goal would be to push for a townie to be eliminated, whether it be Dunn/Goldfish, which would allow them to win the game. And even if Furtive does get eliminated, they have an insurance policy they can fall back on where Cat is still in the game, but is perhaps TR'd.

I also think there's an argument where this works alongside me being picked as the confirmed townie overnight, because I'd been aligning with Furtive on some views, and while I'd had some suspicions of Cat early game I'd stated I felt like their play was reasonable last turn. In this scenario they'd be hoping I stick to voting for Dunn, and if Cat eventually moves onto that wagon as well they only need one more of Goldfish/Alianna to get onboard and push through the elimination.

I'm going to vote for Furtive at the moment, although obviously this is subject to change - I'll case Dunn again soon to see where I stand on them because I'm still wary to let them through this turn knowing we'd potentially be done for if they're scum. But right now a Cat/Furtive team is starting to seem more feasible to me based on current play.

VOTE: FurtiveGlance

On the mechanics, if there's 1 mafia alive they have to do the nightkill.

As for the game, I've created more associatives than Dunnstral by being more open with reads, they haven't been that vocal. Look at their trajectory. After voting me d1, they voted Titus for 'lying about them' - which was just sussing them for coasting. Then they omgussed you day 2. Do you really think that's towny play?

Yes me and Cat have had similar takes this game, including pushing Radical Rat together. I would argue they're scummier than I am for pairing RR with you, whereas I always had Dunnstral (and Alianna) in the mix.

As the (pretty much) confirmed town, you'll lead this vote, so if you stay on me others will follow. I urge you to reconsider. For me, it'll be disappointing to lose after trying my best to be active and give reads, more than most people here it has to be said, especially to lose to Dunnstral who has mostly twiddled their thumbs and omgussed suspicion when there was need to. But yeah I led on town so I can understand being voted.

From your point of view, I'm betting it'll feel pretty disappointing to have been right all game (on Dunnstral) and not stuck to your guns when it mattered.

Fair enough on the first point re the kill, forgetting that. You/Cat could still easily be a team, but that theory of mine doesn't work so can be ignored.

Re the bolded - this is admittedly what worries me. You'll remember we played one game together in the past and I faced a similar quandary towards the end of the game, gut-read told me one player, head told me the other, with solid reasoning behind voting for either of them. Your responses here, a bit like Dunn's, feels quite reasonable and well-thought out...there's a part of that which makes me wonder if you're mafia trying to calmly keep me onside but by the same token you could just be approaching things rationally as town here, and as you say if we're right on Dunn would be frustrating to throw that away.

[MalcolmTucker]

I do want to hear from Furtive re the above though - they think Dunn is scum, so in this case who do they think is the partner? I don't believe they are particularly confident on that at the moment (and it's one of the things that's making me doubt my read too).

I don't think it matters who the partner is right now.

If we do flip Dunnstral (red or we lose), we then either get a clear or a guilty on Cat

. If Cat is clear tomorrow I'd vote Alianna. Simple as that, game done.

True...it's just getting the flip right that inherently worries me. The idea that you/Cat have managed to get a solid grip on the game, forcing through your elim to then try and pocket me by confirming me as town feels quite compelling. But then I do worry I'm potentially overthinking it as well, which can become a risk of its own.

[MalcolmTucker]

Essentially I suppose my split is between Dunn who I've suspected of being mafia for most of the game based on their play thus far, and Furtive who I've largely TR'd based on their play but who would potentially align as mafia alongside Cat given where the game has gone. I suppose it's a bit heart vs head - my gut read has largely been Dunn, albeit with posts/evidence to back it up, but my head is telling me a Cat/Furtive team here makes sense.

There's a world where I can see Furtive making the kill on the basis they were a likely elimination, so they wouldn't be tracked once they picked that power, and we'd get no info on Cat being mafia, if I'm reading correctly into how that works. Once the push was made for Cat to be tracked they weren't necessarily too unhappy with that because in this scenario Cat didn't make the kill anyway. From there the goal would be to push for a townie to be eliminated, whether it be Dunn/Goldfish, which would allow them to win the game. And even if Furtive does get eliminated, they have an insurance policy they can fall back on where Cat is still in the game, but is perhaps TR'd.

I also think there's an argument where this works alongside me being picked as the confirmed townie overnight, because I'd been aligning with Furtive on some views, and while I'd had some suspicions of Cat early game I'd stated I felt like their play was reasonable last turn. In this scenario they'd be hoping I stick to voting for Dunn, and if Cat eventually moves onto that wagon as well they only need one more of Goldfish/Alianna to get onboard and push through the elimination.

I'm going to vote for Furtive at the moment, although obviously this is subject to change - I'll case Dunn again soon to see where I stand on them because I'm still wary to let them through this turn knowing we'd potentially be done for if they're scum. But right now a Cat/Furtive team is starting to seem more feasible to me based on current play.

VOTE: FurtiveGlance

On the mechanics, if there's 1 mafia alive they have to do the nightkill.

As for the game, I've created more associatives than Dunnstral by being more open with reads, they haven't been that vocal. Look at their trajectory. After voting me d1, they voted Titus for 'lying about them' - which was just sussing them for coasting. Then they omgussed you day 2. Do you really think that's towny play?

Yes me and Cat have had similar takes this game, including pushing Radical Rat together. I would argue they're scummier than I am for pairing RR with you, whereas I always had Dunnstral (and Alianna) in the mix.

As the (pretty much) confirmed town, you'll lead this vote, so if you stay on me others will follow. I urge you to reconsider. For me, it'll be disappointing to lose after trying my best to be active and give reads, more than most people here it has to be said, especially to lose to Dunnstral who has mostly twiddled their thumbs and omgussed suspicion when there was need to. But yeah I led on town so I can understand being voted.

From your point of view, I'm betting it'll feel pretty disappointing to have been right all game (on Dunnstral) and not stuck to your guns when it mattered.

Fair enough on the first point re the kill, forgetting that. You/Cat could still easily be a team, but that theory of mine doesn't work so can be ignored.

Re the bolded - this is admittedly what worries me. You'll remember we played one game together in the past and I faced a similar quandary towards the end of the game, gut-read told me one player, head told me the other, with solid reasoning behind voting for either of them. Your responses here, a bit like Dunn's, feels quite reasonable and well-thought out...there's a part of that which makes me wonder if you're mafia trying to calmly keep me onside but by the same token you could just be approaching things rationally as town here, and as you say if we're right on Dunn would be frustrating to throw that away.

Are you saying I'm too calm?

Like I said, if we lose because you vote me I'll accept my share of the responsibility. I thought Radical Rat was scum and they weren't. On the flipside of that I feel entitled to a bit more towncred than Dunnstral because they've literally done nothing but cover their own back all game, and it's lazy scumplay.

No not necessarily...I just think both you and Dunn have been very careful and measured in your responses so far in a way that could reflect scum trying to win over townies. But I get how that could also just come from cooperative town wanting to convince us.

[MalcolmTucker]

Good game guys. My record on this site has been pretty bad so far so glad to win a game. I probably play better as scum than town to be honest.

I was able to blend in well but Goldfish deserves credit for our tactical approach. As you'll see from the thread I was wary to go ahead with "clearing" me and felt like it might be better to try it with Furtive to fully pocket them. But Goldfish had the confidence to push ahead which really helped us win the game.

[MalcolmTucker]

I hope the mod gets here soon, I want to read the scum PT.

We tried not to gloat too much...

[MalcolmTucker]

Cat did have us worried a bit on the final day, they were headed in the right direction with their suspicions.

[MalcolmTucker]

@Goldfish

Why DIDN'T you just outright claim a guilty on furtive? Obviously, clearing Malcolm worked out for you, but seems like it probably would have gone faster and easier if you'd done that

I think it would have been less likely to be beleived, because that would mean that furtive, as mafia, chose himself to be the bp and have his alignment revealed, at a time when quaite a few people were suspicious of him already.

I admittedly never even thought of doing this but agree it would've felt too risky. Furtive doesn't back down as a player at all and could have made a good case given they were in the right. Ultimately one approach meant we were going 1v1, but making me a townie turned the elimination into a fight between two townies while we managed to escape without much suspicion.

[MalcolmTucker]

Like I say, I originally wanted to clear Furtive (as we technically did) to then help cement the pocketing. I think we could've still won and eliminated Dunn perhaps but Goldfish's bolder strategy turned out to be the right one.