Mafia Invictus Redux [Game Over]

[gorilla]

What an ass day 1

I bet scum were all over the Lavar wagon the reasoning for it was so bad

I find it hard to believe that Cakez town read Lava as hard as he claimed day 1. I also didn't like the way that he engaged with the case on Lava itself.

It feels more like he is just trying hard to look like The Person Who Was Right.

VOTE: Cakez

Don't really agree, rarely seen scum take the angle of being overtly angry over a day 1 mis-elim. Think the passion is real but misplaced.

Talking shit on a townflip wagon is a pretty common scum tactic actually? What are you basing this thought on?

It reads as pretty benign comments, not "overtly angry"

Distancing from it maybe but the particular way he's going about it is inflammatory and more likely to attract annoyance because no one likes someone who bitches about a day 1 deadline elim. Scum can try to position themselves to be able to say "I was right" but it doesn't feel like he's doing it that way. I'm just loath to immediately accuse someone of white-knighting because those accusations are pretty frequently wrong.

[gorilla]

LavarManos (11) gorilla (790), Lukewarm (796), fireisredsir (800), Val89 (803), Meuh (822), Dwlee99 (953), Datisi (962), Bell (1014), Dunnstral (1090), VP Baltar (1123), Enchant (1134)

Ok, now that Bell is out there, fmpov this wagon is a bit easier to assess.

We got Bell and Datisi confirm town. I'm town. I think Luke, Fire and possibly Dunn are town (though not certain on Dunn and trusting my gut for now.

That leaves:

Gorilla
Val
Meuh
Dwlee
Enchant

My prediction is that more than one person has enchant as an invictus target, though we can talk about merits of limming there if needed.

I'm personally most inclined to lim dwlee or Meuh from that list. Gorilla isn't exactly a town read. His play feels distanced from the game in a way, and I kind of still standby my "probably one scum in gorilla/gamma", but that's not a good reason to want Gorilla today. It is enough to warrant me rereading gorillas day 1 though.

VOTE: meuh

/streamofconsciouswriting

Why do you have a townread on dunn? And more related to my last quote, what is your actual read on cakez?

[Lukewarm]

Player	Votes
LavarManos (11)	gorilla (790), Lukewarm (796), fireisredsir (800), Val89 (803), Meuh (822), Dwlee99 (953), Datisi (962), Bell (1014), Dunnstral (1090), VP Baltar (1123), Enchant (1134)
Dwlee99 (5)	Kovu (1009), Fey (1011), Lady Lambdadelta (1013), Gammagooey (1022), SirCakez (1034)
Datisi (2)	LavarManos (950), marcistar (1116)
Not Voting (2)	Malakittens (130), Rhyme and Reason (964)

I'm about here right now, readwise; I feel like a lot of these null ones will go one way or another throughout the day.

Few thoughts:

I don't think Dwlee's posts that you just quoted feel like town, Meuh. It's just justification for the Lavar votes and a bit of reconciliatory posting in 1054, but those don't do anything for me.

I also think LLD dying here means that she was the nightkill who shot Datisi, rather than the other way around. I think that points to what content she did give having been either 1) pointing correctly to Dwlee/Bell or 2) a frame, which... eh? I'm less inclined to think mafia wanted to frame than just kill someone who could exert a great deal of pressure on them when she's town.

Also I do think the Dwlee wagon is probably all pure, at max one scum on it. I'm working off the assumption that there are 4 scum in this game so maybe one on the Dwlee or not voting, the rest on the Lavar wagon to push it through because it really wasn't going anywhere. Probably in Gamma/Cakez if there is one but eh. I don't really feel like Kovu as scum just decides to start an EOD competing wagon to a town one. Just doesn't... feel like her from experience, but this is without a lot of back referencing.

Feels like I am doing some preflipping mentally so I'll sort that out through the day (Meuh scum attacking VP -> point to VP town but this is flimsy).

That's about it right now.

p-edit: I highly disagree with the idea that Lady's posting points to the people she voted being town. That seems backwards to me.

Curious why Luke is null range to you. You have a hard time reading him?

I think ydra has had a hard time town reading me in every game we have ever played in together lol

[marcistar]

[marcistar]

why was datisi town... i really thought he was scum i feel so useless maybe i shouldnt be so one minded

[marcistar]

i think i need to reread the whole thread now.... maybe i was thinking about everything wrong..

[Lukewarm]

LavarManos (11) gorilla (790), Lukewarm (796), fireisredsir (800), Val89 (803), Meuh (822), Dwlee99 (953), Datisi (962), Bell (1014), Dunnstral (1090), VP Baltar (1123), Enchant (1134)

Ok, now that Bell is out there, fmpov this wagon is a bit easier to assess.

We got Bell and Datisi confirm town. I'm town. I think Luke, Fire and possibly Dunn are town (though not certain on Dunn and trusting my gut for now.

That leaves:

Gorilla
Val
Meuh
Dwlee
Enchant

My prediction is that more than one person has enchant as an invictus target, though we can talk about merits of limming there if needed.

I'm personally most inclined to lim dwlee or Meuh from that list. Gorilla isn't exactly a town read. His play feels distanced from the game in a way, and I kind of still standby my "probably one scum in gorilla/gamma", but that's not a good reason to want Gorilla today. It is enough to warrant me rereading gorillas day 1 though.

VOTE: meuh

/streamofconsciouswriting

If you got it down to meuh or dwlee, what pushed your vote onto meuh over dwlee here?

[VP Baltar]

Why do you have a townread on dunn? And more related to my last quote, what is your actual read on cakez?

As I said D1, I felt like dunn was being more proactive than he is as scum. I've caught him on that meta before. Of course, now he is doing fuck all kind of, so maybe he was trying to play against his meta, but couldn't keep it up?

I find Cakez more likely to be scum here. His reads are too confident for my taste. I also found his arguments for me being scum to be specious at best, and that's if I'm being extremely generous.


Pedit - @Luke, meuh hasn't been under much serious pressure this game and I'd like to see where that goes. Didn't like Meuh's entrance at all. They are saying things that are supposed to sound town, rather than giving an analysis that is town.

[Meuh]

Okay let's go

Bell

- Town

Fey

- Kinda meh on day 1. 1168, 1170 and 1178 feel kinda solvey though so I'm willing to just let them live at the moment. One thing I don't like about their recent posting is how posts are condensed within a small townframe. I don't remember if that's what they also did on day 1 but I find those sorts of posting patterns scum indicative. Conflicted

fireisredsir

- Mindmeldy at times and seemingly well intentioned, thinking town there

Malakittens

- Tbh I slightly liked Tako's later points. Mala's lukewarm (the adjective, not the person) reads are a bit meh as people mentioned. Also don't like how many of their posts are self-meta. Hopefully their reevaluation will be telling. Pretty much neut maybe lean-scum from

Lukewarm

- 1192 is good and I don't really see how scum!Luke benefits from it. Generally gamesolvey but ig Luke always is. Good vibes though whatever, he's probably town

Dunnstral

- Meh I need to reread, kind of lame they barely did anything day 1.

Rhyme and Reason

- For some reason I started scumreading them less... I need to reread and see why. Okay yeah most things 975 forward are good.

Val's last 3 posts look really good to me.

ngl Val is turning out to be one of those players whose posts I just can't bring myself to read, it's really weird and I don't know why this happens. Might have to do with the structuring of the posts? After forcing myself to read them I agree with this take though.

(c) do absolutely nothing pretending that i'm busy (to be fair it wouldn't even be pretending because i'm currently procrastinating like 5 different things because i'm stupid) then once someone asks go "well if i was his partner i would've bussed obviously!!!!!!!1!1!!32"

ez money

Although this might work, I'd probably call it a small brain approach as well, because it does kinda depend on people not thinking about it too hard, and if people start looking for who avoided the Lavar wagon then you'd probably be pretty high on the list.

Townlean

Val89

- Refer to 616 and 912. All of his posts today are also good, honestly. Townread here

marcistar

- Hmm... I need to reread but honestly I can't say I feel good about her at this point. Idk

Dwlee99

- 1173. Leantown here

Gammagooey

- I got decent vibes from them yesterday but I should think about it harder, idk

Kovu

- Likely town, don't really have anything to add. 280, 419

VP Baltar

- Blegh idk, his vibes are off, and also voting me is bad. I don't feel like reading his ISO rn I probably will later

Enchant

- Leanscum just from general position in the game and lack of any posts that have made me go "oh, is Enchant town here?" which has happened in their town games in the past.

SirCakez

- I honestly barely remember what I thought about him, let me go check
Apparently his vibes are good but his reads are iffy, yeah that makes sense. Confusing still
Hate the vote on Val tbh

gorilla

- They feel solvey so whatever, I'm willing to believe they're town for now


I need to reread (Marci, VPB, Gamma, Dunn)

[Dunnstral]

I'm not convinced that VP Baltar has a good read on my meta based on the post a bit above, and I disagre both on what my meta is and what I was doing day 1. That is to say, I wasn't proactive on day 1, and that's not my scum meta, whereas they are saying I was proactive on day 1 and that's my town meta. It's weird because they are misreading 2 different things to try to determine my alignment.

In the end it doesn't really matter, and trying to push me for having a low content day 1 is folly based on history. I will now pull out the chart I pull out almost literally every game when somebody misrepresents my activity meta (so much so that I've mailed this to myself for faster access):

Spoiler:

it's hard to verify how his posting rate measures to each game without doing some fancy shit I lack the time for

I did fancy shit because why not?



So, I ran all three games that you linked as well as every game that I can remember playing with Dunn through the spread sheet. Calculated Dunn's percentage of all posts made day 1 compared to how many players were in the game, then did conditional formatting to color his higher post rate games green. (because you are positing that lurk dunn = scum dunn) to then see if there is any corrolation.

The conditional formatting guessed incorrectly 4 times, got it right 1 time, and then it did not give a result on his middle of the road game.

If anything, this is wrong more then it is right, and lurk Dunn = town Dunn.

viewtopic.php?f=23&t=87781 - Chromatic Ascension, Dunn was Knight Beige
viewtopic.php?f=83&t=87638 - True Love
viewtopic.php?f=52&t=83971 - Forest Fire

some (semi-)recent samples of lurkscum Dunn
there could be others from games I didn't keep tabs on but it's hard to verify how his posting rate measures to each game without doing some fancy shit I lack the time for

-GE

I'm not lurking in the first 2 games, I'm town in the last game.

omg. If you were town in Forest fire, that would eliminate the singular correct guess based on posting habits, and it will have been wrong in every single listed game lmao

This is dated at this point and no longer means much but I've never seen anyone able to provide evidence that shows the contrary. Occasionally someone like Vp Baltar will confidently state that the opposite of what is shown above is true, but provide either 1 data point or more often no examples at all.

Cool. So now that we've established that VP Balter is wrong and bad, let's focus on the current game. My activity on day 1 doesn't really matter. I think we should focus on Datisi flip because there is no potential wifom there, I don't think Lady Lambdadelta foreshadowed that they would shoot there at all, meaning the mafia were not "prepared" for Datisi dying coming into today. I suspect that Marci and Val89 would have spent the whole day tunneled on Datisi. Several players have pointed out that Val has been very narrow in their pushes this game. I didn't like that they started this day with post 1171, specifically where they say "I realise I am probably handing out a free mislim". It seems overdramatic, I'm not sure there is critical mass for a wagon there. I also don't like that they bring up the Lavar flip with Marci but don't think about the Datisi flip. I like their posts after this point.

Marci doesn't seem to have any idea what to do now that Datisi is dead. I don't think that is a good look since as I pointed above this would have been a surprise flip for mafia.

It may be worth noting that Lavarmanos was pushing Datisi day 1 as well, and so I think the wagon is less likely to be scum influenced (they certainly could have jumped on though).

[Val89]

Same
I think I've been doing a worse job at actually articulating my thoughts than I usually do

and also voting me is bad.

How do you make these two thoughts tally together?

[Dunnstral]

VOTE: val89

Do you scumread Dwlee?

[Dunnstral]

[quote="In [url=viewtopic.php?p=13390462#p13390462]

Val89

- Refer to 616 and 912. All of his posts today are also good, honestly. Townread here[/quote]

You liked 1171?

[fireisredsir]

Cool. So now that we've established that VP Balter is wrong and bad, let's focus on the current game.

LOL

dying

my first reaction to this post was "well, dunn is town" but tbh showing up only after people start pushing on him means i proooobably shouldn't let him off that easy, even though i want to. idk

[marcistar]

VOTE: gammagooey

[marcistar]

Val, I'd like to hear more of your thoughts now that Datisi is dead.

Same for you marci, since you both kind of tunneled there to the exclusion of a lot else yesterday.

Oh ok, you’re scum

Baltar immediately taking advantage of the death to shade other people

meuh, can u explain more on this? why did u call him scum but not vote him?

[marcistar]

gorillas reasoning for his dunn vote is gud as well

[marcistar]

1179 is that usually a bad sign for mala..? i remember last time ive played with her she was so afk she barely gave reads at all, i think she was town there..?

[Kovu]

VOTE: FireIsRed

yeah so fire is maf, maf that as I said before was
1) way too interested in pointing out "people wasting posts"
wanna know what happened here? I'm in a hood with Fire, I said "maf is probably gonna be wasting posts early cause post cap is pretty easy to hit, so just keep an eye on it" then fire spent like 10 posts just "YOU'RE WASTING POSTS" like... that's not "keeping an eye on it"

I have about 50 million other reasons too cause that hood is like textbook scum!fire... basically was just there, I talk a LOT, fire would answer me, but never took a whole lot of initiative to ask me stuff, I'd be asking a lot, that whole lava thing? he was basically like "I'm never voting outside no matter what", I could see lava flipping town and scum, I believe I said why I thought lava could be town, fire didn't care, ummm even after lava flipped VT fire never adressed anything really, just yeah.. I talked to him a LOT about RR, who I still SR btw, I think fire and RR are partners. but I asked fire to give me every reason in the books for why RR was town, whether he believed it or not. He made a "case" and it was genuinely terrible, and basically ended with "I genuinely believe RR could be town" fire used different words, but that was the gist of that, and from that moment, I was like, hold on... and I invictus shot fire last night cause I was like, there is NO WAY he claims this hood if I die, and like, his reads are polar opposite to mine, like he just flipped lava town, you would THINK he'd go "hold on I might be wrong" I honestly don't think once that he genuinely questioned if I was maf, and right now he got very hostile it felt when I was like "yeah I tr them" idk this hood. I can't anymore. I'm VERY certain fire flips red

[fireisredsir]

1179 is that usually a bad sign for mala..? i remember last time ive played with her she was so afk she barely gave reads at all, i think she was town there..?

i mean in the post i was comparing a scum game to a town game, so see for yourself

[Kovu]

also I'm very certain in my TRs.

meuh/marci blend together so I'm not really reading either, they're both in my low peo just cause yeah, I'll deal with reading those 2 later,

VERY BOTTOM poe is : fire. mala, dunn, RR

People I can't TR are: Bell, fire, mala, Dunn, RR, Dwlee, Gamma


and if all poe are gon, and there's 1 scum left at the end, I would reevaluate gorilla

[Kovu]

people I didn't mention, I TR, with varying levels of certainty, but I feel very good about these reads. and I have to get the fire thing off my chest. I'm VERY certain fire is not town. that hood... I know I just talk a lot in general, but fire is mafia

[Meuh]

You liked 1171?

Yeah. I guess what you mentioned about the very start of it is valid, though that part never really stuck out to me. I like the other 2 paragraphs in it, the middle one particularly

[Meuh]

Same
I think I've been doing a worse job at actually articulating my thoughts than I usually do

and also voting me is bad.

How do you make these two thoughts tally together?

I can understand the thought process behind scumreading me, that doesn’t mean it’s a town indicative thing to do (and also ego)

[marcistar]

VOTE: SirCakez

did u agree with lukes reasonings ooooor?