Open 97 - Lovers Mafia (Over in 3 days!) before 703

[Guardian]

who the hell took so long to confirm?

jdodge's logic re: battosoi's counterwagon thing is interesting, but I hardly think anyone was going to lynch me page 1, so I'm not sure why battosoi as my partner would do something that obvious. it seems a lil off of jdodge to suggest it cuz hes pretty good. omgus/fos: jdodge.

part of me likes battosoi-adel with that second vote, since battosoi could easily have voted someone else, too.

btw:

Y'all know the MOS-plan for vengeful or whatever? You select a player to be "MOS" and never lynch them and that improves your chances of winning. A similar strategy applies here I think.

Normal play:
1/3 chance of winning day 1.
2/3 * 2/5 chance of winning day 2
1/3 + 2/3 * 2/5 (4/15) = 9/15

If we select a "MOS"
2/3 town mos:
2/5 chance of winning day 1
3/5 * 1/2 chance of winning day 2
4/10 + 3/10 = 7/10 chance if town mos
7/10 * 2/3 = 7/15

1/3 scum mos:
1/5 chance day 1
4/5 * 1/4 chance day 2
1/5 + 1/5 = 2/10 * 1/3 = 1/15

total chance of winning 8/15.

um. dang nevermind. Maybe I did maths wrong, its 4:30 am. someone else recheck this.

anyways im gonna vote 4 bat- Battousai. his 2nd vote on the 2nd waogn is a lil funny.

vote: Battousai

[Guardian]

hm or Battousai jdodge.

that would explain why jdodge's reason for voting Battousai is iffy.

I am never gonna get your name right without copy paste Battousai. Can you come up with a short memorable nickname for yourself?

[Guardian]

simulpost -- in which jdodge immediately abandons his vote on Battousai.

i am watching your internetz closely jdodge.

[Guardian]

who the hell took so long to confirm?

jdodge's logic re: battosoi's counterwagon thing is interesting, but I hardly think anyone was going to lynch me page 1, so I'm not sure why battosoi as my partner would do something that obvious. it seems a lil off of jdodge to suggest it cuz hes pretty good. omgus/fos: jdodge.

Your suspicion is based on complete and utter WIFOM based on "if he was my partner, i doubt he'd do anything that obvious". And then suspicion based on "you're better than this".

1. Good is relative. That makes your second point irrelevant.

how the hell does this follow?

2. The first is irrelevant. The point is not that he thought someone was going to lynch you, the point is that he wanted to take any possible pressure off of you.

thats dumb i can handle the pressure.

part of me likes battosoi-adel with that second vote, since battosoi could easily have voted someone else, too.

Bullshit. Are you saying that it would've been better if Batt

had

put Adel at -1? You're creating a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" argument here.

no it wud be better if he voted a random 3rd person.

btw:

Y'all know the MOS-plan for vengeful or whatever? You select a player to be "MOS" and never lynch them and that improves your chances of winning. A similar strategy applies here I think.

Normal play:
1/3 chance of winning day 1.
2/3 * 2/5 chance of winning day 2
1/3 + 2/3 * 2/5 (4/15) = 9/15

If we select a "MOS"
2/3 town mos:
2/5 chance of winning day 1
3/5 * 1/2 chance of winning day 2
4/10 + 3/10 = 7/10 chance if town mos
7/10 * 2/3 = 7/15

1/3 scum mos:
1/5 chance day 1
4/5 * 1/4 chance day 2
1/5 + 1/5 = 2/10 * 1/3 = 1/15

No. Your second example fully proves why it's a bad idea. Furthermore, since hitting just one scum ends the game in a town win, we need all players as possible plays for the lynch. You're trying to set yourself up into an impenetrable position where you won't be lynched. It's not working. Your bussing attempts are incredibly transparent at this point.

wtf i never even suggested myself as MOS. stop putting words in my mouth.

My reason for Battousai being "iffy" is because it involved a heavy connection to you, and your OMGUS instinct kicked in.

DIESCUMDIE

No, its iffy cuz it is iffy. him doing that as scum doesnt make any sense.

if it DOES make sense why change your vote to me? cuz me finding your bad reason to be bad is suspicious?

[Guardian]

edit:

My reason for Battousai being "iffy" is because it involved a heavy connection to you, and your OMGUS instinct kicked in.

DIESCUMDIE

No, its iffy cuz it is iffy. him doing that as scum (with me) doesnt make any sense.

if it DOES make sense why change your vote to me? cuz me finding your bad reason to be bad is suspicious?

[Guardian]

wow, that's really dumb.

I remember why I quit mafia.

Batt is definitely town. 100%. This is a confirmed townie speaking: Batt is definitely town.

lynch Adel. Adel calling for my lynch was bullshit and antithetical to her information gathering Modus Operandi.

Summary:
Batt 100% town
Adel 95% scum

thanks for the game..

[Guardian]

wait -- also -- SF, what reason did you have to vote me, if any?

you didn't express any suspicion of me until hammering.

[Guardian]

Scumlist, from most suspicious to least:

Adel
SF
Jdodge
LG
Batt

I'm pretty much right about this. Any questions?

PS lynch Adel she's scum. Adel would not call for a page two lynch, she is all about information and this generates none. Don't let her slime her way out of it.

[Guardian]

Unless SF can explain his hammer on me when he previously had no reason to hammer me, I permit you to lynch him instead of Adel.

Still, Adel is a much better choice.

[Guardian]

Ok, I'll lynch guardian on page 1 :)

You wanna know the reason for the double wagon vote? To see how people would react. I didn't think it was scummy, though so I wasn't trying to see who would jump on me for being scummy.

Also, I haven't played with guardian, but I would think that L-2 on page 1 where both votes were random = pressure. That's just me though.

Concerning the scum pairs: I think it is pretty early to be calling them now. From the people that are active, the person I think is most likely scum is Adel (info after random vote).

Adel: What's your position on guardian-

batt

scum pair, adel-batt scum pair, or the one where I'm not scum? Instead of sitting back and watch two people have a "scum fight."

this post is why batt is town fyi.

jdodge is playing normal for jdodge, even though his reasons are really dumb. lg has nothing one way or the other.

adel does not call for quick days as town, SF had no reason to hammer me.

that is the game as I see it.

[Guardian]

6. If any player gains the majority of votes, that person will be lynched, and the game will go into twilight until I post the lynch scene (

you may still post during this time

).

I checked the rules LG..............

[Guardian]

if you have any questions for me or comments on my analysis of the game please present it now. I feel about 85% confident in it.

[Guardian]

Why do you think I'm Scum?

wait -- also -- SF, what reason did you have to vote me, if any?

you didn't express any suspicion of me until hammering.

Why is JDodge above me?

He probably shouldn't be.

[Guardian]

wait -- also -- SF, what reason did you have to vote me, if any?

2 people were calling for a hammer so I went back and looked at your play thus far. I didn't like you trying to make someone unlynchable, but I thought maybe it was Adel/JDodge scumpair. When Gurgi also called for a hammer, I knew that at least one of them was Town, so I hammered

so one or two townies and one or two scum wanted me hammered... ergo you hammered?

you say you looked at my play -- what if anything was suspicious about it?



I believe LG about keeping the rules rather than trying to halt discussion.

[Guardian]

wait -- also -- SF, what reason did you have to vote me, if any?

2 people were calling for a hammer so I went back and looked at your play thus far. I didn't like you trying to make someone unlynchable, but I thought maybe it was Adel/JDodge scumpair. When Gurgi also called for a hammer, I knew that at least one of them was Town, so I hammered

so one or two townies and one or two scum wanted me hammered... ergo you hammered?

you say you looked at my play -- what if anything was suspicious about it?

I found you suspicious, but not suspicious enough to hammer with potentially only the Scum calling for a lynch. When Gurgi chimed in, I knew there was at least one Town person comfortable with your lynch, so I hammered.

As I said, I really didn't like the whole MOS thing.

There were 3 people voting him. Of course there was at least one town person comfortable with the lynch.

Don't get me wrong, the lynch was just what this game needed to get kick-started - but your pretense for hammering is bullshit.

this.

citing evidence that at least one townie supported my lynch is a really, really really bad justificatory thing for my lynch.

id say sensfan is maybe even a better lynch than adel.

it is really really bad to lynch someone just because at least one townie (and possibly two scum!) want it.

[Guardian]

well, i guess ive given you some good stuff to think about. peace. I'll not play mafia for a few more months now I guess.

[Guardian]

sensfan -- it wud have been nice to say you were suspicious of me, and why, and let me respond to it -- before hammering.

not doing so is uberscumzie

[Guardian]

sens is still scum.

[Guardian]

Well, a win is a win, I guess.

The setup worked as it is intended -- town gathers information from day 1 interactions and moves on to day two. I'm not mad at Jdodge or Adel for their roles in lynching me, and LG and Sens weren't on my team. I am annoyed I was the random day 1 lynch, but there has to be one.

Good job at not letting Sens get away with the hammer -- it is precisely for meta-situations such as this that townies should not hammer too early -- if we allow townies to do it scum could do it here.

Good job Adel, Batt, Jdodge, I look forward to playing with you again.

I didn't really read where the insults started so I have no comments on that.

Not sure why LG and Sens thought the quick hammer was the best play, or why they thought I would be silent upon death.

~Guardian

[Guardian]

wow, that's really dumb.

I remember why I quit mafia.

Batt is definitely town. 100%. This is a confirmed townie speaking: Batt is definitely town.

lynch Adel. Adel calling for my lynch was bullshit and antithetical to her information gathering Modus Operandi.

Summary:
Batt 100% town
Adel 95% scum

thanks for the game..

95% scum, really?
I wanted to pressure your scumbuddy by leaving you at lynch -1. I did a quick check before the game stated to make sure that there wasn't a potential village idiot in the game, so I figured that letting you dangle there wasn't a bad idea.

SensFan: why did you think that hammering Guardian was a good idea?

I did not realize that you calling for my lynch was in jest. Had I been around much longer I would have started going after you.

[Guardian]

Good job Adel, Batt, Jdodge, I look forward to playing with you again.

Can I ask if this means you have no intentions of playing with me again?

Nope -- I look forward to playing with you too.

Although I might not play again anytime soon. This game reminded me why I can get very frustrated by mafia.

[Guardian]

This game basically *is* polygamist mafia, but with town disadvantaged since there is no one they can trust, but advantaged since there is less players to sort through.

In the past, the same players were allowed to replay Texas Justice because of a short game -- I would be interested in trying that here, possibly. I am placing a two-game max on myself though, so if I am in two by then, no dice.

[Guardian]

Well I put the game on the Open Queue list. I think Sens maybe right about this. I have Jdodge, Lord Gurgi and SensFan confirmed to play again. Right now I don't have this as a sign up just a note for myself on the queue starting page.

If someone is not interested, I vote Shanba/Yos/Thesp/Glork to replace :D

I could probably get Shanba in on it. Just give me a couple of days. I'll get a hold of Guardian, too.

If we get the original cast I'm up for it.

[Guardian]

If Batt + 1 more is interested then I am probably still OK, assuming we don't lose more than Adel.