Not Quite Normal Multiball II (Game Over)

[Flavor Leaf]

Let's check out 1.24. This was near the end of the day, and was one of the largest Catboi wagons. In 1.16, TicTac was on the wagon, but only when it was smaller. They never returned, and actively went on the ones going against Catboi.

Toogeloo

(10) |

SCP 682, Ydrasse,

Menalque,

butterchurn

, tictac,

catboi

,

mastina

, Sword of Ducks,

Save The Dragons

, bnuuy

catboi

(6) |

MonkeyMan576

, Nero Cain, Nashville Dreams, Flavor Leaf,

Toogeloo

,

Cat Scratch Fever

MonkeyMan576

(2) |

bnuuy

,

The Keeper

Flavor Leaf (2) |

Dunnstral, Klick

The Keeper

(1) |

Enchant

Not Voting |

MegAzumarill, MalcolmTucker, cassowary

So remember, I was saying there was always scum in the stragglers of Catboi wagon. Those were Toogeloo, Mega, CSF, and TicTac. Toogeloo and Mega flipped town. CSF flipped red. In addition to the only other slots ever on the Catboi wagon in myself, ND, and Nero Cain.

So is it likely that nobody on the wolf team ever voted Catboi? I would say no. At the very least, it would make sense for one teammate to vote at one point during the game even if it wasn't for long. TicTac fits perfectly.

In this scenario, Catboi could get some more momentum on them if more would join. Do we think it's ever likely for 2 wolves to be on Catboi at this time? No.

This automatically makes it so Nero and Nashville are never W/W here, and I can't be a wolf, I'm just....Flavor. (harry)

____

Awesome. So now, Bnuuy on MonkeyMan is a VC mistake, they were on Toogeloo here, meaning 100% of the unflipped slots are on either Toogeloo or Catboi.

Wolves need to save Catboi, so this means at the very least, there are 2 wolves on Toogeloo unflipped. Menalque, Tictac, Sword, Bnuuy.

This confirms that there are always 2 Wolves in that group of 4, possibly the 3rd, but for VCA sake, I'll add in the possibility of 1 of Nero/Nashville, but I don't believe it's ever both.

So doesn't need to be said, but the final Mafia is either on Catboi/Toogeloo here, which is exactly the Mafia candidates of Nero/Nashville/Sword/Flavor (for completionist's sake)


_____


So even if you believe I am Mafia here, take a look at my analysis that I've posted these last couple of pages.

This has been my strongest scum hunting all game, if I do say so myself.


I am a late game town powerhouse because, and all 3 of the my proposed wolves team know this about me (if I'm right on who Bnuuy is).


I had called out successfully Catboi, Mastina, and CSF earlier this game, and then I started to get hard targeted for some reason.

This wasn't a strong scum game by me, this was a strong TOWN game.

And I do apologize for being overbearing this game, it's one of the reasons I need to step away, but take a look at Flavor Leaf vs Hectic.

I essentially played the exact same way, but from the confirmed town slot. TownMe is overbearing.

[Flavor Leaf]

Do you want to experiment with me on Menalque Flavor?

Uhm…maybe.

This one is a bit scarier for me in the chance I’m wrong on the team, because Menalque is the one in the three I feel I would be wrong in at this point, even though it goes against my VCA.

My gut tells me Menalque is town, my brain says he’s a wolf, my heart says listen to my brain.

That means I’m leaning him wolf, but some things he says, like the “sig this if we ever in a game” line give me pause.

However, him specifically pushing me saying that line is off considering if he thinks I’m scum, it wouldn’t matter for him to sig, which could be TMI him knowing I’m town?

[Flavor Leaf]

I even had Bnuuy on some of my Day 1 solves.

this is bunk, your sole "push" on me d1 was to dismantle the wagon on me to let catboi go through

I never said I pushed you— I said you were in some of my solves.

[Flavor Leaf]

Do you want to experiment with me on Menalque Flavor?

Uhm…maybe.

This one is a bit scarier for me in the chance I’m wrong on the team, because Menalque is the one in the three I feel I would be wrong in at this point, even though it goes against my VCA.

My gut tells me Menalque is town, my brain says he’s a wolf, my heart says listen to my brain.

That means I’m leaning him wolf, but some things he says, like the “sig this if we ever in a game” line give me pause.

However, him specifically pushing me saying that line is off considering if he thinks I’m scum, it wouldn’t matter for him to sig, which could be TMI him knowing I’m town?

if he knew you were town wouldn't he be mafia?

why cant wolves know I am town? But this helps me not think that's the case, though.

I was under the impression that it was possible wolves werent entirely sure if I were town or Mafia, while leaning they were leaning towards me being Mafia, but I also think I am a threat to wolves based on my solving, and probably some leftover resent/vengeance getting for Catboi.


Like with you and TicTac, it reeks of Catboi Vengeance.

Menalque must have showered, and put on some cologne, because I can't tell, and there might be a little in there, but they have been on some wagons with you two, so i could see it transferring over.

[Flavor Leaf]

let's say night 7 starts 3-2-1
the only good outcome is both scum crosskilling
wolves hitting mafia or town and mafia misfiring results in 2-1-1 wolf majority, with the only possible outcomes atp being wolf win or draw
wolves hitting town and mafia hitting a wolf results in 4p kingmaker (which might be more prisoner's dilemma than kingmaker but it's still bad)
even both teams shooting you is not great because atp it's a situation of the mafia needing to townside or the wolves win, and I feel like it's pretty likely someone just gets it wrong and wolves just end the day there, at which point they're all but guaranteed to win

All of this gives us much better odds than winning 4-3 ELo though.

Mafia is much less likely to miss a Wolf in 3-2-1 than the Town is in ELo.

I think once one wolf falls the rest come in order
so town only has a 3/7 guess (3/6 for any individual player)
with you around as well, it becomes 3/5 in essence
the odds of a crosskill are 2/5*1/4=1/10
so imo there's 6x better odds to win if we hit mafia today than if we hit wolf+town the next 2 days

these odds are looking at it from a technical perspective, without looking at the fact that certain slots are less likely to be killed than others.

[Flavor Leaf]

I would like everyone to state their 2 biggest wolf reads.

[Flavor Leaf]

I would like everyone to state their 2 biggest wolf reads.

Mine are Bnuuy-TicTac.

[Flavor Leaf]

I'll be limited access tmo but may check from time to time.

Klick put me where you need me.

~Titus

Same here, I won't be here until nightfall in my area. Damn, without MathBlade's thread bloat the whole game can actually have a discussion without it getting heavily interrupted.

You’re somehow still complaining about math, who is dead, when FL has over 1800 posts

Yeah, but i only had like 650 posts from Day 2 to here, Math had like 1k from Day 4 to here.

[Flavor Leaf]

And frankly, still enough that every time anyone was trying to speak and you didn’t want them to talk about it that it felt like you were just shouting over the thread, from what I saw when actually here

Plus math is normally posty but was 100% worse bc of how much you posted

take out day 1, i already explained my issues there.

And frankly, if someone's coming after me with bad mech saying the most logical solution is that I shot my own scum partner, then yeah, I'm gonna fight it, sorry not sorry.

They had double my posts from Day 4 to Day 6.

[Flavor Leaf]

I don't know why the concept of being 'locked into voting Flavor' has entered the conversation

If the three of them were locked, Flavor is the only viable lim if I did my math right.

they can all be on me, and we can still get a lim.

Freedom, Klick, ND, Flavor, Sword together is enough.

And if they dont budge, they out themselves as the wolf team.

[Flavor Leaf]

they risk* outing themselves

[Flavor Leaf]

Wolves want me dead, Mafia benefits from keeping me alive until wolves numbers dwindle.

Frankly, the Mafia needs wolves to shoot me tomorrow night. If it wasnt for the moon theory Math pushed of me shooting my own partner, I'd be conf town.

Town does not sheep Mathblade fully without questioning their mech like both Bnuuy and TicTac did. Math's push benefited wolves tremendously, and allowed the actual mafia to hide in plain sight.

[Flavor Leaf]

Oh look. I’m near prod range.

[Flavor Leaf]

I kinda liked the energy behind it.

[Flavor Leaf]

I think it’s funny they chose to compare forgetting the word spoon to forgetting the word vitiligo.

Also, Klick keeping us all in suspense.

[Flavor Leaf]

Think flavor is mafia
Would say Mena, Ducks, and tic-tac feel like wolves

If wolf, this probably confirms Wolves legitimately think I’m mafia.

I like the 3 wolf picks, makes me more confident with my solve.

VOTE: Bnuuy

[Flavor Leaf]

For the record, I am stuck between thinking Menalque is Mafia, or Nashville is Mafia.

If Sword is a wolf, then Menalque could be Mafia, could be Nashville.

2 of my 3 town reads are wrong, and I could probably make a case for all three of them for all three alignments, but there’s something about Sword I want to town read

[Flavor Leaf]

My thing with Nash is I have been town reading them all game, but I noticed a pseudo turn onto me more today, and the hint of that felt off.

However, I also don’t see Mafia wanting me to die until a wolf or two are out, so :shrug:

[Flavor Leaf]

If we lim FL, we go to 2 wolves in 5 alive. Elo.

2 wolves, 1 Maf, 2 town to be exact

[Flavor Leaf]

On the flip side, let’s say we flip FL maf today

Go into night and it’s 3-3

We lose

I think town is lost either way, but I guess probably the best is flip wolf today and hope the scum fuck up?

Why do you think this?

I think town’s in a good spot personally. We hit a wolf today, then wolves always shoot me, mafia has a decent chance of shooting the last wolf.

This actively brings us to 4p with a confirmed town in Klick alive going against 1 Mafia. If Mafia miss, then yeah, it also lowers the possibilities.

It makes absolutely zero sense for both scum teams to not go for the other scum here. It’s way too risky, and could auto lose.

Whichever is a wolf in Nashville and Menalque likely always shoots me tonight, and the other gets shot by Mafia.

[Flavor Leaf]

My 2 cents is we go TicTac today because in Nashville, Sword, Menalque there’s the possibility of hitting town, and I just don’t think TicTac is ever town here.

Then wolves down to 1, Maf at 1, i think there’s a good chance at least one of them die. They have to shoot for each other, meaning Klick is likely to live.

I also think I am like a lock to get shot by Wolves tonight.

The danger is that Mafia hits a townie instead of the wolf.

But Menalque, if Mafia, shoots Nashville or Sword, Nashville shoots Menalque or Sword, and Sword shoots Menalque or Nashville. They have a 50/50 chance at face value, but with play and reads, Mafia probably knows where the last wolf is.

This brings tomorrow into a 50/50 who the last Mafia between 2 of those 3 with Klick and Freedom alive.


Like no wolf risks letting me live here, I feel.

[Flavor Leaf]

I looked into TicTac/Bnuuy/Menalque posts, and all 3 of them were pushing like it was a foregone conclusion that I was Mafia.

I think that comes from a TMI Wolf POV who knows that they didn't stop any kills.

That means Mafia probably No-Killed on Night 2 and 3, and shot Catboi Night 1.


Night 1 Mafia kills Catboi. Wolves No-Kill.
Night 2 Mafia No-Kills. Wolves Kill Butterchurn.
Night 3 Mafia No-kills. Wolves Kill SPC.

Night 4 Mafia Kills MegAzumarill. Wolves Kill CSF.
Night 5 Mafia Kills Keeper. Wolves Kill STD.
Night 6 Both No Kill.

It's exactly what Titus said that Mafia had to do days back, and it tricked Wolves into legitimately thinking that I was Mafia based on an extra unexplainable missing Night Kill.

So this means Titus is either right that Sword is scum, or is Mafia herself who sit this up knowing that she'd be at the end having to get Sword of Ducks misfaded in final 4, but I'd have to check the math on that to see if that was seeable.

It's hard because both Sword and Nashville have been helping me so I genuinely see townieness in both of them, but one of them have to be scum. It also makes sense why Mafia didn't want me flipped because it immediately opens them back up. Titus opened up Sword and Myself yesterday, so I think I slightly lean Nashville. I don't think she is a Wolf here, though.


Menalque and TicTac are wolves in almost every scenario I'm looking at here. His tone is good and townie the past couple days, but when you look back at some of the stuff in the past, like the hyper defense of Catboi, then push onto Bnuuy and TicTac super hard, but somehow it was his Toogeloo push that went through.

His post saying "look at Bnuuy, that is a scum ISO". He just defended Catboi hard, then distanced against his other two. He also voted Mathblade, and then also went to me, so he was fence sitting, and he coasted throughout.

I'm not saying we fade Menalque here, I actually specifically want TicTac.

And then whoever is Mafia in Sword and Nashville should already see that Menalque is Mafia.

I think going TicTac today gets us to a favorable end game nicely.

This is a good position for town.

People saying town isn't in a good position isn't coming from a town POV, they're trying to act like they're coming from a town POV.

[Flavor Leaf]

Okay, so tictac or Nashville next?

Also you quite possibly get shot tonight so remind ducks not to try and kill me tomorrow

Assuming this is talking about Klick getting shot tonight, this always come from a scum POV, I would say it's almost a 'playing dumb tell' kinda mentality.

Wolves never aim for Klick because they need to take down Mafia.

Mafia never aims for Klick because they need to take down a Wolf.

If I am somehow wrong about Nashville not being a Wolf, I think Menalque is 100% Mafia here, but I truly don't see a world where Menalque is town here.

Their tone and posting

feels

townie, but their actions from early in game, specifically Day 1 and also later perspective on my slot makes me feel Menalque realized that Mafia could sus them out based on the way they were reacting to my slot, then he changed his play thereafter.

Fading TicTac means ScumMenalque always shoots me tonight. Wolves will lose this game going that route.

It's Town or Mafia, 4p elo with a 50/50 on Sword/Nashville. Freedom being scum would be hilarious, but I town read all 3 of their slots, and I don't think WallFlower replaces out in the scenario they were scum getting yelled at by Catboi.

[Flavor Leaf]

ScumMe has no reason to kill Catboi, who was replaced by RCEnigma.

1: the slot was likely to be faded after that Day 1.
2: RCEnigma is one of my closest buddies here on site + it's on record that I can pocket him, and push him while they still town read me.

ScumMe has no reason to kill Mastina Scum Partner immediately after Enchant had died. It makes no sense as a Monk who was likely to get night killed by Wolves. I believe the only reason I didn't get killed was because Mathblade came after me. It's possible that on Night 3 Wolves shot at me, and Mathblade protected me, and then Mafia killed SPC to lower the defense on me, but I really don't see that as more likely than Mafia No Killed to keep the Mathblade-FL drama going, knowing that a Mathblade-FL double misfade was likely. Math and I let scum hide behind our 1v1.

Town has a solid chance at winning this game.

CSF has no reason to have Friendly Neighbored me the night after they did it to Menalque. It does absolutely nothing for a scum partner, and was just there to get CSF more protection from townies. All it did was get them killed by Wolves.

I pushed Mastina Day 1. Pushed CSF Day 2. Shot Mastina Night 2.


Okay, there's my analysis/defense for the day along with my final reads of Menalque/TicTac always wolf. Nashville Mafia over Sword. Not entirely positive on that, but I kinda think it's funny if SwordMafia wins this whole thing, though, but they have gotten the newb pass from me here.

[Flavor Leaf]

fuck, Butterchurn does slightly incriminate Nashville as Wolf, but easily could be an attempted frame.

Butterchurn could have been double nightkilled instead of mafia no killing night 2, meaning they were forced to No kill night 3 rather than choosing to, but I digress.

[Flavor Leaf]

Honestly, Kill TicTac, Wolves shoot me, Mafia shoots Menalque/Nashville, whichever of them isn't Mafia, the other is, then you're left in a Klick-Freedom-Sword-One of Menalque/Nashville.

Fade in the Menalque/Nashville.

Only scenario we lose is if Sword/Freedom is scum, which I'm happy to risk, to be honest.

This kills the triangle of Menalque/Nashville/FL 100% of the time, and ends in a town victory most of the time.

[Flavor Leaf]

wolves killing me, and Mafia killing a townie ends in 2 town, 1 mafia, 1 wolf, no fade in this situation and hope scum cross kill is only scenario that works out, but that's if Mafia miskills in their 50/50, and wolves shoot me, but that's still actually a pretty decent shot for town winning because scum have to kill each other or risk losing.

[Flavor Leaf]

I definitely do not think Menalque is town.

[Flavor Leaf]

@Klick - Do you not agree that Wolves, if I were Mafia here, need to shoot me?

Mafia shoots for a Wolf. Imo, TicTac is obvious wolf, so if we stay away from voting TicTac today, Mafia always shoots there if they live.

[Flavor Leaf]

So you want to take the leap today, Klick? I was pushing TicTac as best vote because it removed any chance of me slipping by to a Mafia win for you guys, and would have left tomorrow as the leap, albeit smaller leap.

If we flip mafia outside of me, I'm cleared, I was just going for certain scum. If we hit MafND today, you die in the night. If we hit Wolf ND, I die in the night.

[Flavor Leaf]

even as essentially mech cleared town, I can't get people to see I'm town

[Flavor Leaf]

I still think Menalque is a better fade than ND.

This makes zero sense if I were Mafia who thought Menalque is town. Mafia NEEDS a Wolf Fade.

[Flavor Leaf]

VOTE: Menalque

I'll put my vote down as someone who is confirmed not to be a Wolf on where I believe a Wolf is, and at worst, the last Mafia, which clears me 100%.

There is zero reason for MafiaFL to push a TownMenalque here. Please see that.

[Flavor Leaf]

I don't think tictac is a good vote. I think Mafia has every incentive to shoot tictac,

who I think will flip wolf

. Meaning town controls their own vote while Mafia have to kill in town's interest.

FL currently reads as Mafia who thinks Menalque is town.

you should be seeing TicTac as 100% wolf here.

@Nashville - In the chance I'm wrong with you, I'd say 35% chance Sword is the scum instead of you, where we dont fade TicTac today, it's always Menalque that should be killed.

If you are town, I see very little possibility ever with Menalque being town here.

I don't love the idea of not fading TicTac, but I get what Klick is proposing at least. Mafia always shoots there. If Menalque flips Mafia, I become cleared, and we have an easy Wolf Fade in TicTac tomorrow. If Menalque flips Wolf, Mafia kills TicTac tonight, Wolves kill me.

Nashville, Klick, Freedom, Sword final 4 with 1 Mafia.

[Flavor Leaf]

Klick, Idk what to do at this point. I've felt like I was obv town for days at this point, but people still hanging onto the idea of me killing my own partner simply because it's me.

I have never killed my own partner. There was no wincon for me as Mafia by doing so.

Please get some medicine for that Flavor Fever.

[Flavor Leaf]

Klick, Idk what to do at this point. I've felt like I was obv town for days at this point, but people still hanging onto the idea of me killing my own partner simply because it's me.

I have never killed my own partner. There was no wincon for me as Mafia by doing so.

Please get some medicine for that Flavor Fever.

Thinking about it, it's really just scum who is holding onto this. I think Sword sees that I'm town, and I believe Freedom does too, but has that cautious side with it, which I understand, and then Klick has a bit more power, so I can understand them not wanting to lose to scumMe, but literally the group who has been leaving me open, with the exception of Titus, is literally just scum. And even Titus opened up to me being scum again starting yesterday, but I believe the townies alongside myself are Sword, Freedom, and Klick.

Fade Menalque, TicTac 100% always kills me. Mafia always kills TicTac.

Then fade Nashville tomorrow.

The game is always won in that scenario if Sword/Freedom are both town.

[Flavor Leaf]

My No Fade plan from earlier still works if I die, but Mafia doesn't kill TicTac.

[Flavor Leaf]

I think we lim Flavor here as I think he's mafia. I'm not 100% sure given Math's history.

We can't no lim and we can't risk a town elim. No lim puts us at 4 2 1. Then wolves shoot mafia. Mafia shoots town. 3 2 or mafia shoots scum 4 1 1. This is crosskill hope at best. Might as well eliminate tictac.

I am a town elim. Like I said, had Mathblade not come in here, and push me killing my own partner so much, I would be essentially Conf town.

In the scenario you’re putting forth with Can’t risk a town elim, from your pov, if I were Mafia, then tomorrow would be a 3-2 with 2 wolves where you can fade TicTac, and it’s a do or die with Menalque-ND-Sword anyways.

So even in the best case scenario from your POV, how does fading me make sense?

[Flavor Leaf]

In that scenario, Klick dies as well because wolves don’t have to shoot for Mafia.



Wolves 100% of the time shoot for me tonight. Let them.

@Sword - Freedom - do you two understand why Wolves always shoot me tonight if a Mafia is unflipped? Even if we flip ND and they flip Mafia, wolves shoot me over Klick.

[Flavor Leaf]

Here’s the thing, if anyone ever thinks I’m mafia here, then you should also see that I would 100% be shooting in TicTac/Menalque.

I am being pushed as Mafia and then in the same posts it gets talked about Mafia shooting town.

No. If I were Mafia here, I shoot a wolf. If I were Mafia here, I’d have an enhanced read on the game based on being informed most of it.

If I were Mafia here, I do not miss.


Freedom, Klick, and Sword, please see why I am town here. I do not kill my own scum partner. Nashville even laid out why there was no victory path for me if I chose to do that the night Enchant died.

The scum is exactly TicTac, Menalque, and Nashville.

Nashville’s setup in that last post confirms it because her post implied situations relying on me being Mafia but also said I would shoot town which doesn’t ever have a possibility if I were Mafia.


I have been near 100% correct this game. With Catboi, with Mastina, with CSF, with Bnuuy. It didn’t happen Willy nilly, I did the work and came to conclusions.

I have been a major pusher of every single flipped scum except Enchant. I didn’t do it alone by any means.

I am objectively and close to Mech town here. Please do not let Flavor Fever get to you.

I understand this may be annoying, but try to listen to what I say.

As town, I will do everything in my power to help you see that I am town, and scum have been trying to push Mathblade’s scenario into this game since Day 3.

Mathblade and I were a hard TvT that scum were able to hide behind, and push to their benefit.

Klick was also tied into that, so at one point it was a Mathblade, Klick, FL chain misfade possibility before Math cleared Klick.


Wolves will always shoot me here. There is no chance of me living through as Mafia.

If you want TicTac to stay alive to get shot by Mafia, fine, but I highly doubt Mafia ever misses here.

It is possible it’s TicTac/ND with Menalque Mafia, but whoever the Mafia is knows the exact wolf team, unless Sword is Wolf, which I do not believe.

I have been town reading both Sword and Freedom slot since Day 1, it’s not like this just happened out of the blue.

I will fade any of the three, and believe it’s the best path to victory.


Let me die tonight from the wolves claw themselves. WITNESSSSS MEEEEEE!!!!!!!

[Flavor Leaf]

VLA 48 hours

Here's the situation, we're both working.
Wolves and mafia get kills tonight if not limmed.
Limming wolves puts us in prisoners dillema. 4 1 1.
Nightkills can become 4 0 0
2 1 1 or 3 2.
Limming mafia puts us in 4 2. Which becomes 3 2.

Safer play is to eliminate mafia.
Mafia want a wolf limmed or town.
Wolves settle for town but want mafia.

This math doesn’t take into account the reads of the players, and who wouldn’t get night killed in the scenarios.

Klick never gets nightkilled here. Scum essentially have to go for each other.

Wolves absolutely never risk me being Mafia and winning this game. I am shot by Wolves 100% of the time.

MafiaNash shoots Menalque/TicTac here, MafiaMenalque shoots Nashville/TicTac here.

It is always a win if Sword and Freedom are town.

[Flavor Leaf]

And you could say “what if scum don’t shoot there”

Then they risk the other scum killing them.

It just is a do or die for them, they are literally forced into it.

The only mishap is if Wolves don’t shoot me, and shoot the Mafia instead, which is even better because it’s an instant win without going to the next day phase.

It benefits both scum teams now to come after me here and play the night phase because any other situation ends in a town victory.

[Flavor Leaf]

@Freedom/Sword - Would you sheep me on TicTac? As someone who cannot be a Wolf. I feel TicTac is 100% obviously a wolf.

Here’s the situation if I were Mafia here. I would obviously shoot Menalque thinking they are more likely the other wolf. Menalque would shoot me. Game over. Town win.

If Nashville was a wolf, I was Mafia. Nashville shoots me, I shoot Menalque. You all fade Nashville tomorrow. Game over. Town win.

Now I’m town, Menalque Wolf shoots me, NashvilleMafia shoots Menalque. Fade Nashville. Town win.

Nashville Wolf shoots me, Menalque shoots Nashville. Fade Menalque. Town win.

I’m every single scenario that is likely to happen, town win by fading TicTac.

Absolutely nobody shoots Sword, Klick, or Freedom here because it loses them the game/leaves up to hopeful chance.

[Flavor Leaf]

I’m not gonna do the situations where we fade Menalque/Nashville, but essentially, it all works out the same.

People assuming Mafia miss here are scum. Full stop. Especially if you think that I would miss as Mafia.

[Flavor Leaf]

VOTE: TicTac

I think this always is a Wolf.

[Flavor Leaf]

I mean I do too really. But voting tictac today is literally just doing Mafia a favour. It does nothing to limit the pool of potential Mafia for Wolves to kill in.

how?

Menalque/Nashville as Mafia always would kill the other. If you think I'm Mafia, I would always kill Menalque.

Fading TicTac 100% ends in a town victory if scum Sword/Freedom are both town.

[Flavor Leaf]

Anyone else want to point out the reason why TicTac confirmed themselves as scum in that post

[Flavor Leaf]

I don’t see who else is maf other than FL

Maaaaaaybe ND in a world where ducks is wolf?

But most likely to me is still FL maf, wolves tictac + ND with an outside chance of ducks instead of one of the others

So fade TicTac, and let me get shot by ND if that’s your solve.

[Flavor Leaf]

Anyone else want to point out the reason why TicTac confirmed themselves as scum in that post

Go ahead.

They’re saying I need that by going after the Mason + Wolves, trying to imply I’m going after a town Mason, but going after a townie loses the game from a MafiaLeaf POV, so in that scenario I wouldn’t need just a Mason. I’d need a wolf.

[Flavor Leaf]

Tomorrow, only 1 of Menalque, Nashville, FL make it to that day.

You fade in the 1 of them that live, and if Sword/Freedom both town, it’s a win.

[Flavor Leaf]

Idk why ur trying to convince me of anything when I’ve already said multiple times that I’m just here to sheep klick and give him my opinion if he asks

Trying to test your lack of action.

You’re not trying to sheep Klick, you’re trying to sheep Klick onto me, there’s a difference.

[Flavor Leaf]

Like I’ve literally been one of the harder pushes on 4/5 of the flipped scum here, should be near mech confirmed town, and still getting pushed as Mafia.

That is why I’m still trying to convince other people. Frankly, it’s extremely frustrating.

[Flavor Leaf]

And i know most of it just comes from scum, but it only takes 1 or 2 townies to believe it for scum to pull it off.

[Flavor Leaf]

Like I’ve literally been one of the harder pushes on 4/5 of the flipped scum here, should be near mech confirmed town, and still getting pushed as Mafia.

That is why I’m still trying to convince other people. Frankly, it’s extremely frustrating.

Where the only possibility of me being scum is a world where I shot my own scum partner right after losing another scum partner as a Monk.

I personally feel I’m handling my frustration extremely well considering the situation.

[Flavor Leaf]

@Menalque - Explain your Sword and Freedom reads.

They have been my town reads since Day 1, and they're the two that just happen to be getting universally town read now?

So in your own words, I'd like to see why you town read both Sword and Freedom.

[Flavor Leaf]

I mean I do too really. But voting tictac today is literally just doing Mafia a favour. It does nothing to limit the pool of potential Mafia for Wolves to kill in.

Wolves always kill me here, where is this pool?

I am the pool. No Wolf risks letting me win this game if Mafia.

And if Mafia is in Menalque or Nashville, they shoot the other.

Do you town read Sword and Freedom? Because if you can town read Sword and Freedom, and we're right on it, then going TicTac wins this game 100% of the time.

[Flavor Leaf]

@Klick - you're looking at this from the angle that scum has the same amount of POV as you, but they have one less, and two less for wolves because you're conf town.

[Flavor Leaf]

I say 100%, but it's really like 90%, which is insanely high.

I just really felt that read on WallFlower on Day 1, and then Nero Cain played like how I expected Nero to play as town. I dont think the replace out of WallFlower comes as Mafia.

SPC stated they thought WallFlower/Catboi were Wolf/Wolf, which is my only paranoia with the slot. They say that Catboi was getting unusually upset with everything WallFlower was pushing against them.

I have a really hard time seeing Nashville helping me out with Catboi on Day 1 the way they did, but I have been having doubts. They did somewhat setup on Sword and Myself, but I've been pocketed by Nashville before, but I think it's more likely Mafia ND. I can see you being right there, however. The Butterchurn kill does incriminate ND a little bit, I feel, and Mathblade was pushing both myself and Titus, but definitely me harder. So I get the Wolf Nashville case, but they played it so I specifically wouldn't see them as a wolf if they are, and it worked. But I'm aware that's the position I am in with them now, if that makes sense.



Really the kicker for all of this was Menalque/Bnuuy/TicTac were the ones hiding behind Mathblade and leaping the logic gaps because fading me benefited them tremendously as wolves.

Because I feel like every townie naturally didn't follow Math's logic leaps, but those 3 did because they had the wolf informed knowledge of knowing where their wolf kills were.

[Flavor Leaf]

TicTac's hammer on Bnuuy felt like an obvious bus, and TicTac even said earlier in the game when I was defending them that I was good at reading them.

However, I was specifically stating I could read TicTac around Day 4 when I was protecting them.

Menalque defending Catboi as hard as he did, only to hard push Bnuuy, then hard push TicTac, screams a distancing tactic, especially when considering Toogeloo is the one that eventually went down.

[Flavor Leaf]

Exactly how confident are you that tictac is scum here, FL? And that it's not something like Mena/Nashville wolves, Freedom maf?

It's this gap of understanding why Nashville/Menalque/TicTac are all clearing Freedom that confuses me. They've all just kind of accepted Freedom as town, and it feels like they want the gamestate to feel that way so the weight comes back to me, so I'd either have to turn on my reads or go all in on them.

Scum have wanted me faded for days now.

[Flavor Leaf]

Where was I planning a Freedom fade? the slot's been my number 1 town read all game besides STD/SPC.

[Flavor Leaf]

I'm not Mafia, TicTac.

Klick is never a night kill if both scum teams are alive, though.

[Flavor Leaf]

It's this gap of understanding why Nashville/Menalque/TicTac are all clearing Freedom that confuses me. They've all just kind of accepted Freedom as town, and it feels like they want the gamestate to feel that way so the weight comes back to me, so I'd either have to turn on my reads or go all in on them.

that was me stating that i wouldn't turn my reads on them since i've been pushing the other 3 of you as scum.

[Flavor Leaf]

I would like to reiterate that not only is it the winning move but it also makes the game approx 1000x more playable and enjoyable if we lim FL today

it's actually a losing move.

[Flavor Leaf]

If Menalque is town, Nashville is scum 100% of the time?

I don't see what you guys see in the Menalque scenario, but yeah.

[Flavor Leaf]

Yeah, the scenario where Menalque is town, means Menalque and I have to be on the same page for town to fade correctly.

That kinda sucks.

[Flavor Leaf]

@Sword / Freedom - You wanna just kill Nashville? TicTac voting there means they think they're Mafia or they're a wolf buddy and they're distancing.

Then I just get shot if Nash is a wolf, or I'm cleared if they're Mafia.

[Flavor Leaf]

@Sword / Freedom - You wanna just kill Nashville? TicTac voting there means they think they're Mafia or they're a wolf buddy and they're distancing.

Then I just get shot if Nash is a wolf, or I'm cleared if they're Mafia.

I am a bit worried about Nashville potentially being Town but then if both Mena and SoD are Town, then maybe Nashville is scum.
But then, SoD is null for me.

If you, me, and Sword are all town, Nash has to be scum.

[Flavor Leaf]

TicTac changes right after the Nashville wagon got close to range

[Flavor Leaf]

The fact that I'm open to Flavor not being mafia but possibly seeing he is likely scares the actual mafia. Flavor's sudden swap on me today and claiming my suspicion on him is somehow novel is troublesome. The problem is that 2/3 of the scum feel too easy. I need my energy back but it's not coming.

@ND - I have tried to get Menalque and TicTac prior to going after you, and I have yet to vote you this day phase.

I may have you in the line, but by no means are you the main one. You are like the last scum to me, by poe mostly.

TicTac is setting you up to look like a wolf if you are not a wolf.

[Flavor Leaf]

Klick’s worrying that Menalque and I end up both be town, and can’t figure it out, which is fair.

[Flavor Leaf]

Menalque and I are the ones that “can’t figure it out”. ^

[Flavor Leaf]

I really don’t think I make it through the night, though.

VOTE: TicTac

Just hit scum, and let the chips fall.

@Sword - TicTac moved off of Nashville, which is something I was testing.

[Flavor Leaf]

2 1 1 kingmaker.

town wins in this scenario most of the time by No Fading.

[Flavor Leaf]

wait, i guess scum have to no fade there also for it to go through.

[Flavor Leaf]

At this point, I understand if I'm the one that gets faded. I've tried my hardest to get town read all game, but I'm too slippery as scum for it to be trusted completely here.

This is Detective Fogport all over again, scum read almost entirely all game, and in the end, a game losing misfade.

Funny enough, I was a Vig there too.

[Flavor Leaf]

This is a funny day because scum have to be like completely careful with not making it out to be obvious that it’s 100% them, and also wolves have to both defend their partner + make sure they aren’t tied together.

Best case scenario for wolves is to hit Mafia, but they’re super scared of missing, I feel.

Klick, can you give your Menalque town case?

[Flavor Leaf]

I don’t believe Math lies about the occult on Klick, and I’d like to believe Klick isn’t a Werewolf Godfather, but in either of those cases, I’ve essentially accepted that as a Wolf win, but I do just want to call out the moon theory

But from that pov, I think Klick just always wins by fading me unless they’re afraid of being shot by Mafia who thinks they’re town, but i believe Mafia has to go after wolves, and Klick would be a poor shot, and a lucky shot if they did kill them.

This is really just a post game “i called it” more than actually considering this.

I think Klick would have pushed me or Nashville by now if this was the case

Idk, I feel I’m right on the money with my solve, personally, but I admit it could just be my own self believing I’m right.

I have felt Menalque town from tone all game, it’s really just the vote patterns and day 1 pushes completely intertwined by 2 wolves + TicTac for me.

[Flavor Leaf]

The solve being TicTac->Menalque->Nashville

My biggest issue is everytime I interact with Nashville I hard gut read town them

[Flavor Leaf]

I’m not mafia, Klick :/

[Flavor Leaf]

@Klick - why is Menalque town for you? Reasons other than tone.

[Flavor Leaf]

This kinda just sucks. Because I feel like the only way I’m not faded today is if Sword or Freedom are faded, and those are my stronger reads.

[Flavor Leaf]

Well, 3 of the town are together

[Flavor Leaf]

@Nashville - Please fade TicTac. I know it’s not the Mafia fade, but I will flip town, and I die tonight from wolf.

If Sword is Mafia, they’re likely gonna trust my read enough to kill Menalque over you. If I were Mafia, I always kill Menalque too.

[Flavor Leaf]

@Klick - just because you are Conf town, doesn’t mean you are correct in reads. If anything being Conf town makes it more likely you are incorrect, similar to Mathblade in I believe it was the Go game.

[Flavor Leaf]

Sword didn’t say they didn’t see you were town, they said they trusted nobody but me, which I feel makes sense.

I’ve ran up and caught 4 out of the 5 flipped scum.

And the only way I can be Mafia is by killing my own partner in Mastina the night after Enchant dies.

That does not happen.

You are leaning towards me because you are paranoid I am Mafia, rather than actually thinking I am, with my death.

[Flavor Leaf]

I have also been actively defending Sword since Day 1, and while I’m paranoid of giving them the pass I did, everything they have done feels townie, and I just don’t believe they pocket me this hard if they are scum.

You are the town that is mixed up right now, Klick.

And as the person who has literally been a main pusher of 4 of the 5 scum.

Here’s why a Wolf kill is better than going for a Mafia one right now:

Yes, killing Mafia is preferred, however I AM TOWN. The Mafia slot is much more hidden than the wolf slot, and you are risking the game pushing me just because you are paranoid of me pulling the kill Mastina gambit.

In a scenario where one of the others is Mafia, they automatically know that both Klick and myself are not mafia or wolves, which drastically lowers the chances that they miss.

My plan literally wins the game for Town 90% of the time, and if I were Mafia, my plan actively makes sure I lose.

Please get over your Flavor Fever.

[Flavor Leaf]

Like if I was anyone but me, I’d be the towniest person in this game.

The only smidgeon of ScumMe that’s possible for me is killing my own scum partner with literally no path of victory.

Like, I am actively objectively town here.

[Flavor Leaf]

There is no sort of guarantee that Mafia and Wolves target each other tonight. Your plan assumes there is. But there isn't. I wish there was. But there is not.

You’re betting on it happening even moreso by fading me, though.

And I also disagree.

If you think I’m Mafia, Wolves 100% always shoot me tonight.

Simple as that.

You’re choosing not to see the context in the game outside of the math statistics. You and I automatically don’t get targeted by Mafia.

You are going to lose the game for town with what I believe is your incorrect read on Menalque.

I also feel like if you truly thought I was Mafia here, my read on Wolves would be far superior from having that insider knowledge.

Are you a Wolf Godfather Commuter or something defending wolf partner Menalque?

My fade leads to a Wolf victory almost 100% of the time.

[Flavor Leaf]

@Nashville - if you believe Menalque is scum, please fade TicTac.

Klick’s read on Menalque does not make sense at all, and they refuse to dive deeper into anything besides just saying “they’re super town”

When objectively, Menalque has one of the scummiest ISO’s in the game.

I’d almost rather fade Menalque than TicTac at this point, so Nashville, if you want either of TicTac or Menalque, I’m happy to go on board. Sword is not a wolf here based on how they’ve played today. Same with Freedom. They’re Mafia if they are scum, meaning they want wolves too.

I will be shot by wolves 100% of the time, and the Mafia will shoot the one of the wolves that didn’t die tonight.

I have called you not a Wolf essentially all game, and that makes absolutely zero sense ever coming from Mafia in my position.

I’ve essentially locked out myself from victory if I were Mafia.


Bob TicTac and Menalque are hard incriminated as wolves by VCA.

Frankly, if Klick does happen to be a godfather, then TicTac is the town.

Menalque is almost always scum here, and if he isn’t wolf, he is Mafia.

Look back at my VCA from a few days ago.

Mathblade-Cass-Menalque were the purples on my wagon and Dunnstral. Menalque is the final one there.

His mentality in this game became super disinterested in this game once Catboi died, and he’s been pushing the blame of that on me constantly.

This is because he genuinely feels that way because he is a Wolf who lost a scum partner in Catboi that he was hard defending.

His activity for the days after is exactly loss of partner depression.



I am not wrong in Menalque being scum despite if he started becoming townie by tone the past day or so.

Objectively he has not.

Even if you still believe I’m the most likely chance at being Mafia, that should almost strengthen the resolve I have in my solve.

I have been close to on the money almost all game this game, yes, there’s been a few hiccups, but I have been under fire all game.

The combination of those two is the biggest town tell I have.

[Flavor Leaf]

I feel like even if you're town your elimination doesn't doom us. At that point the remaining Mafia really does have to shoot a Wolf, and the Wolves are better served shooting for Mafia than for Town to avoid Mafia shooting them again the next night.

This doesn't square with 'my fade leads to a Wolf victory almost 100% of the time'

That’s effectively a policy then.

It’s not a 100% defeat, but the amount of luck required just goes dramatically up because Wolves don’t have to shoot me.

[Flavor Leaf]

If TicTac is town, Klick is 100% a Godfather.

[Flavor Leaf]

Menalque/Klick is the team if TicTac is tow.

Mafia is in 1 of you other 3.

Yes, I have more of a vendetta against Wolves since they’ve been pushing me all game long because I’m a Monk.

They killed the people surrounding me in SPC/STD, and probably Butterchurn.

Kill me Wolves. I dare you.

[Flavor Leaf]

Ceph wouldn't put a Godfather in a game lol.

Yeah, they put a Wolf Vig and 2 gunsmiths with red herrings, but no wolf red herrings?

So idk why you act like it’s impossible. If you are town, sure it didn’t happen, but i don’t think that’s the correct analysis.

I’m still leaning TicTac/Menalque, but yeah

[Flavor Leaf]

If I'm scum most of the last two days would've been a complete waste of time when I could've just voted you yesterday instead of actively making a bnuuy vote happen.

This is a fair point.

Still giving you it cuz you’re wrong on Menalque.

[Flavor Leaf]

Part of me hopes Sword is Mafia and just wins this whole thing as the last one alive.

[Flavor Leaf]

If tomorrow somehow ends with me and another townie dead, y’all should totally draw.

Then Butterchurn is the only one who loses.

[Flavor Leaf]

At the very least I hope everyone recognises that Sword of Ducks is just blatantly town at this point.

Somehow the most fitting way for town to lose is ducks barely playing and choosing to trust maf over conftown for what I’m going to generously describe as ??? reasons

Like to the point that it only would make rational sense if they were teamed but that’s a mech impossibility lol

You’re saying all of this from a perspective of me being 100% Mafia, and post game you will see that is incorrect.

Not even post game, Day 8, you will see that as correct.

Meaning all of this you just said is not a bad play by Sword, it’s Sword correctly town reading me or being scum, either way it makes it so Sword is not playing poorly.


You and Klick, in a world where you’re town, are the ones that are playing poorly, and you’re using preconfirmed accusations to shade Sword.

[Flavor Leaf]

Another reason I don’t believe that is you being genuine is because you were in a game where I hard slipped, and I talked you specifically into town reading me and pocketing, so you blaming Sword over ScumFlavor pocketing, which you hadn’t even pushed as a reason is one of the biggest reasons why I believe you have are scum.

Idk if you’re Wolf or Mafia here, but I can see blatantly Klick is wrong that you are town.

Both you and Titus have been in games with me where I hard pocketed you to win games, so you blaming a newer player like this doesn’t make sense to me.

I don’t know if you actually think I’m Mafia or just scum seeing me as the biggest threat to you specifically, but I hope Mafia shoots you and ends the wolf bloodline.

[Flavor Leaf]

I don't really have an opinion on how this play looks from Sword!town perspective
I do know Sword's play makes zero sense coming from scum

I also know FL is actively trying to pander to Sword with basically every post at the moment

This is not alignment specific.

Sword is correct in town reading me, and without Sword, I’d have been dead by now.

Freedom-Sword-Myself have essentially been a town block for days now, so Idk why you’re acting like this is new.

I have defended Sword as well as pondered if they could be scum.

[Flavor Leaf]

You could have waited for Nashville, Klick, so don’t turn this onto me.

I have pushed TicTac since Day 4.

[Flavor Leaf]

Not interested in getting into a back-and-forth with FL or Titus about nonsense.

Hopefully Wolves see the necessity of killing FL tonight.

It’s a forced draw between wolves and maf atp unless either side gets greedy

Menalque, in this post, is not aware of the fact that scum can't draw between themselves.

This is information that Menalque would be aware of, if scum.

So you use this to town case Menalque but when I brought up drawing tomorrow, it’s different?

[Flavor Leaf]

@Klick - who should Mafia shoot?

Who should wolves shoot?

Like from your POV, who do you shoot in those scenarios.

[Flavor Leaf]

Not interested in getting into a back-and-forth with FL or Titus about nonsense.

Hopefully Wolves see the necessity of killing FL tonight.

It’s a forced draw between wolves and maf atp unless either side gets greedy

Menalque, in this post, is not aware of the fact that scum can't draw between themselves.

This is information that Menalque would be aware of, if scum.

So you use this to town case Menalque but when I brought up drawing tomorrow, it’s different?

You brought it up directly after seeing Menalque townslip on it.

Frankly, we brought up different draws.

I notoriously don’t read rules, though, so it is something I would do as scum anyways, so I’ll give you this one.

[Flavor Leaf]

Klick, idk what to do

What do you propose I do in this situation?

Like hindsight, game is over, you see me as town, what would you propose I had done here?

[Flavor Leaf]

I actually have a really risky town gambit i think i can pull right now that will either win town the game or lose.

Klick, is it okay if I pull it?

[Flavor Leaf]

Imma pull it because it’s awesome, and can end in an actually Mafia death tonight.

[Flavor Leaf]

@Wolf that isn’t TicTac, so one of Freedom, Nashville, Sword.

I am Mafia. I will shoot Menalque tonight. If Menalque is Wolf, they just shoot me, town victory.



Shoot one of the other townies. Tomorrow, it will be 4 people alive.
1 Maf, 1 wolf, 2 townies.

Force a No Fade by never voting.

Kill off the 2 townies.

I don’t see how this doesn’t draw, tbh.


Now, here’s the thing, wolf.

You shoot me, I’m lying about being Mafia here.

[Flavor Leaf]

TicTac’s already been hammered by Klick.

[Flavor Leaf]

@ND —11663

[Flavor Leaf]

Still in shock I made it to Night 7

Grats town.

You’ll see in mafia thread I say Day 1 that my biggest threats were Dunn and Klick.

[Flavor Leaf]

Still in shock I made it to Night 7

Grats town.

You’ll see in mafia thread I say Day 1 that my biggest threats were Dunn and Klick.

Why didn't you shoot Klick? Instead you shot my last miselimination....

I was still focused on setting up a way where I could get the win, and Menalque being Wolf was the best path, so I shot Menalque with the idea that if you were Wolf, you’d get faded.

I was half hoping a situation where Menalque was Wolf and shot you, and then I was gonna go for the Klick misfade

[Flavor Leaf]

Like by the end of it, I was like, 90% sure Menalque was town, but by logic and everything else, he’s still wolf to me, even after they flipped

[Flavor Leaf]

u guys killed Keeper and ydr, so lol.

Both were direct threats to me specifically. Had Keeper lived, I'd have been gladiated.

[Flavor Leaf]

u guys killed Keeper and ydr, so lol.

Both were direct threats to me specifically. Had Keeper lived, I'd have been gladiated.

Plus, Ydrasse was an Enchant solo kill.

I was honest when I told Math that Enchant just likely went on their own to shoot, which was fine, of course.

I definitely Town Sided over Wolf Sided, but mainly because that was the best way to Mafia-Wincon, which a couple things gone differently, it could have been a Mafia win.

This was a very even game by all factions, I feel, and most players did play well. I can't think of a slot that didn't play well, tbh.

[Flavor Leaf]

After reading the wolf pt, TicTac played amazingly. Best I've seen.