Open 865 | CultD3 | Postgame

[Fredrick A Campbell]

VOTE: Malakittens

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Fredrick A Campbell's First Unofficial Votecount
Accurate up to this post

Continued from The Moderator's VOTE COUNT 1.00

Not Known 15 (1): Gamma Emerald(12),
Elements (1): MegAzumarill (6),
hutmeil (1): Roden(7),
Gamma Emerald (1): Malakittens(8),
ProfessorDrapion (1): Not Known 15(9),
Malakittens (1): Frederick A Campbell(21),
MegAzumarill (0):
Roden (0):
Frederick A Campbell (0):

Not Voting (3): hutmeil(4), ProfessorDrapion(4), Elements(20),

Votes unaccounted for since the last votecount:
Elements (2): Elements(10),
Not Known 15 (2): Elements(15),

With 9 in the jury, it takes 5 to find guilty of conspiracy to murder.

Day 1 ends in (expired on 2022-09-28 11:00:00)

.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

When 7 players are left, it should be taken that we are at execute or lose as it is possible that there are 3 cult members left.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

VOTE: MegAzumarill

[Fredrick A Campbell]

I think MegAzumarill and Gamma Emerald are just town

Are you trying to do anything with this post? Don't elaborate if yes. If no, you should be unable to elaborate.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Fredrick A Campbell's Second Unofficial Votecount
Accurate up to this post

Continued from Fredrick A Campbell's First Unofficial Votecount

Gamma Emerald (3): Malakittens(8), Elements(48), ProfessorDrapion(55),
Elements (2): MegAzumarill (6), Gamma Emerald(36),
Roden (1): hutmeil(30),
hutmeil (1): Roden(7),
ProfessorDrapion (1): Not Known 15(9),
MegAzumarill (1): Frederick A Campbell(59),
Malakittens (0):
Not Known 15 (0):
Frederick A Campbell (0):

Not Voting (0):

Votes unaccounted for since the last votecount:
Roden (2): Elements(26),

With 9 in the jury, it takes 5 to find guilty of conspiracy to murder.

Day 1 ends in (expired on 2022-09-28 11:00:00)

.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

VOTE: hutmeil

[Fredrick A Campbell]

VOTE: hutmeil

You mind explaining that?

I mind explaining that. Explanation will be typed up in a .txt file.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

VOTE: hutmeil

You mind explaining that?

I mind explaining that. Explanation will be typed up in a .txt file.

and will be produced upon request after a certain period of time has passed.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Fredrick A Campbell's Third Unofficial Votecount
Accurate up to this post

Continued from Fredrick A Campbell's Second Unofficial Votecount

hutmeil (3): Roden(7), Frederick A Campbell(62), Elements(68),
Gamma Emerald (2): Malakittens(8), ProfessorDrapion(55),
Elements (2): MegAzumarill (6), Gamma Emerald(36),
Roden (1): hutmeil(30),
ProfessorDrapion (1): Not Known 15(9),
MegAzumarill (0):
Malakittens (0):
Not Known 15 (0):
Frederick A Campbell (0):

Not Voting (0):

Votes unaccounted for since the last votecount:
Roden (2): Elements(26),

With 9 in the jury, it takes 5 to find guilty of conspiracy to indoctrinate.

Day 1 ends in (expired on 2022-09-28 11:00:00)

.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Correction: no votes unaccounted for since the last votecount.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

VOTE: hutmeil

VOTE: hutmeil

UNVOTE:

VOTE: Gamma Emerald

[Fredrick A Campbell]

VOTE: hutmeil

[Fredrick A Campbell]

VOTE: hutmeil

VOTE: hutmeil

UNVOTE:

My interpretation of Gamma Emerald's intent in this post makes me suspicious of Gamma Emerald as well. I'll get back to it another time.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Spoiler: post 181 by MathBlade

VOTE: hutmeil

You mind explaining that?

I mind explaining that. Explanation will be typed up in a .txt file.

and will be produced upon request after a certain period of time has passed.

Requesting this.

VOTE: Meg

hutmeil was the next player in my list of random people to vote after MegAzumarill.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

I have not forgotten what I said about Gamma Emerald. As of right now, what I see is not enough to suggest anything about my hypothesis of Gamma Emerald's intent.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Current townreads are MegAzumarill, Roden and ProfessorDrapion.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

VOTE: Not Known 15

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Spoiler: post 169 by MathBlade

Howdy Reading now.

I am so glad to be town for once.

To that end kinda wanna see where everyone’s head’s at:

Meg: Long time no see. Who is your top town and scum read?

Mala: Is this it? The fabled game where we are both town and alive?

Roden: What are your vibes of the game so far?

Elements: Don’t know you that well. What’s your favorite thing about the game so far?

Campbell: Looks like your a strategy guy. Do you have a plan now or more just thinking mechanics?

Gamma: Nice work in the theme game. Gonna see if you have similar vibes. Any strong reads/feels?

NK15: Got any spicy thoughts? Usually you are good but tend to be drowned out so hope you see this and drop a spicy thought or read.

(To) "Campbell: Looks like your a strategy guy. Do you have a plan now or more just thinking mechanics?"

Plan for what?

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Not Known 15, how sure are you that Elements is mafia?

[Fredrick A Campbell]

I think this player has the highest chance of being mafia by virtue of post count and content of 伊's posts.

VOTE: Malakittens

Spoiler: What is 伊

Third person singular pronoun in Hokkien Chinese

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Not Known 15, how sure are you that Elements is mafia?

Not entirely. I have seen other suspicious happenings (Meg and Math); but Drapion is very likely Cult Leader.
Why do you disagree on Drapion being CL? All of the other suspicious people, Math, Meg and Elements have some defensive/evasive connection to Drapion, and Drapion's early game is CL-indicative.

I don't think Drapion's early game really suggests 伊 is cult leader.

The other suspicious people you mention I actually don't find suspicious and, except hutmeil Mathblade, haven't found suspicious.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

I don't think Drapion's early game really suggests 伊 is cult leader.

Well, why not?

I actually don't think Drapion's early game suggests 伊's alignment at all.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

I don't think Drapion's early game really suggests 伊 is cult leader.

Well, why not?

I actually don't think Drapion's early game suggests 伊's alignment at all.

But I actually think Drapion's early game suggests ProfessorDrapion is town. I just forgot about that when I made the post I quoted.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

To me, ProfessorDrapion seems to be trying to figure out player alignments. Also, 伊's thoughts on Gamma Emerald's alignment is unlikely to be faked.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

So, why do you think ProfessorDrapion's early game is Cult Leader indicative?

[Fredrick A Campbell]

VOTE: Not Known 15

Upon looking at Not Known 15's ISO, Not Known 15 called ProfessorDrapion cult leader in his first post. And what did ProfessorDrapion post before that? One post, post 5. Since then, Not Known 15 has continued to call ProfessorDrapion cult leader.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

I agree with the assessment that Gamma Emerald is town.

VOTE: Roden

[Fredrick A Campbell]

I now also agree with the assessment that MathBlade is town solely based on what ProfessorDrapion posted.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

I think Roden is town as well.

VOTE: Malakittens

[Fredrick A Campbell]

I currently think MegAzumarill is town as well.

Worst case scenarios, ratio of town to cult:
Day 2 6:2
Day 3 4:3

[Fredrick A Campbell]

If it can be achieved, I will execute Malakittens, Not Known 15 or Elements this day phase. This decision is not final.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Spoiler: post 457 by Gamma Emerald

I currently think MegAzumarill is town as well.

Worst case scenarios, ratio of town to cult:
Day 2 6:2
Day 3 4:3

If it can be achieved, I will execute Malakittens, Not Known 15 or Elements this day phase. This decision is not final.

Curious what you’re reading Meg as town for but this seems solid

Like you eventually make Meg vote me then what? Your going to try and go onto Roden as well and push on me without actually pushing on me or calling me wolf at all.

Scum Motivation.

Idk man but if I see Meg vote me and then you start talking to Roden in regards to me I’m voting you instead of Gamma.

I think for most people in ProfessorDrapion's position, they would place a town player where ProfessorDrapion placed Meg by default and only switch it up if they are being intentional about it.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

I didn't mention this earlier, but I am only looking for the cult leader.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Spoiler: post 494 by MathBlade

Oh sweet, I can actually read Math

[he is scum because I am voting his slot]

Vibe of the game so far was that your slot wasn't doing much and seemed frozen.

[your slot is scummy]

I scum read Drapion independently of Hutmeil, but I read Hutmeil's inaction as scummier.

Hutmeil = my slot = scummy

Meg, Elements, and Gamma all seem pretty townie, not sure on Mala and Fred yet. NK15 is a player that I'm waiting for a meta tell before I settle on a read there.

Why no question/comment for Drapion?

Fishing trying to connect me with a cultist

I don't see what you are referencing here?

Bold is Emphasis for clarity not in original post

Oh sweet, I can actually read Math

[Roden can read MathBlade]

Vibe of the game so far was that your slot wasn't doing much and seemed frozen.

[hutmeil was not doing much and seemed frozen]

I scum read Drapion independently of Hutmeil, but I read Hutmeil's inaction as scummier.

Meg, Elements, and Gamma all seem pretty townie, not sure on Mala and Fred yet. NK15 is a player that I'm waiting for a meta tell before I settle on a read there.

Why no question/comment for Drapion?

[Why didn't you address Drapion in your post?]

Bold is my interpretation of Roden's post.

Also, I think Roden decided to read you disregarding hutmeil's actions.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

VOTE: Not Known 15

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Why are there so many blank votes? And what's the case on Elements?

Well, that was 521 by Not Known 15.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Why are there so many blank votes? And what's the case on Elements?

Well, that was 521 by Not Known 15.

You seem to have read it. Why don't you agree?

Well, the only part I disagree on is that MathBlade being the convert means that Elements is the Cult Leader.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Not Known 15, why did you think ProfessorDrapion is the Cult Leader in day 1?

[Fredrick A Campbell]

(To Not Known 15)

I am assuming that ProfessorDrapion was hedging. The past day phase suggests Elements was the cult leader. However, I believe there is as much evidence that Malakittens is the cult leader. As for you, I am starting to think that none of what I am seeing from you is just an act, which was really the last thing that was making me consider you as the cult leader.

This leaves just Malakittens and Elements. Do you have anything to suggest that Malakittens isn't the cult leader?

VOTE: Malakittens

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Well, I have read (past tense) up to about post 566. So far, my views have been approximately the same as when I made my last post.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

I am not sure Elements is town. I agree with MathBlade that we should find Elements guilty if we are not sure whether Elements is town.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

I read through post 618 as well, by the way. And managed to follow all the points. And do not believe there are any issues with the argument. I don't have an opinion on which of the premises are true, however.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

I actually am still not sure about Not Known 15's allignment because I think that 伊's posts are the sort I myself have no problem making as mafia.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Actually, here's something that needs to be thought about before the deadline.

Approximately how many of the players do we need to be certain that Elements is town for us to decide to execute someone other than Elements?

Mechanically, this number is 5 or more as that is the number that will allow all the players to decide to execute a player other than Elements.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

I still think Malakittens is the cult leader. I'll double check the validity of my premises first.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

I still think Malakittens is the cult leader. I'll double check the validity of my premises first.

I am probably not doing this in the next 24 hours as I am a tad-bit busy. We'll see by the time it is tomorrow where I live.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

I'll be working with the assumption that Not Known 15's claim is accurate.

This makes MathBlade not Cult Leader.

Roden's 213 is actually a very good point. I don't believe Roden would have made that post as Cult Leader.

Currently think MegAzumarill's posts don't tell me whether or not they are Cult Leader.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

VOTE: Malakittens

Please unvote. I haven't even thought this through.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

I believe that Malakittens is most likely the Cult Leader. Here's what I will be doing. Looking at every other player and estimating how likely the hypotheses that the player is Cult Leader is.

I propose other players attempt to do the same. The player which is most likely Cult Leader should be the best choice from your perspective.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Hypotheses become more likely the more the attempts to disprove them fail.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

hutmeil was barely around before getting replaced - null
MathBlade in day 1 appeared to attempt to be posting - more likely to come from town
Stopped before MathBlade's 218

Postscript: I am very glad I made myself fulfil my obligations for today a few days ago. I will look at my future obligations to make sure I can continue doing this.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Cursory look of MegAzumarill's Day 1 posts seem to be coming from town.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Everyone unvote. Just give me one more day.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Maybe the current team is Malakittens, Not Known 15 and MegAzumarill.

Only a cult member will be this comfortable throwing votes out like this because they know the cult isn't going to step in and quickhammer because they are part of the cult.

In addition to that, the execution of a cult member will automatically lead us to a loss. This suggests that Malakittens isn't the cult leader but just a recruit, while either of Not Known 15 or MegAzumarill is the actual cult leader.

I personally think Not Known 15 is the cult leader as MegAzumarill is just a lot less likely considering 伊's play on day 1.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Maybe the current team is Malakittens, Not Known 15 and MegAzumarill.

Only a cult member will be this comfortable throwing votes out like this because they know the cult isn't going to step in and quickhammer because they are part of the cult.

In addition to that, the execution of a cult member will automatically lead us to a loss. This suggests that Malakittens isn't the cult leader but just a recruit, while either of Not Known 15 or MegAzumarill is the actual cult leader.

I personally think Not Known 15 is the cult leader as MegAzumarill is just a lot less likely considering 伊's play on day 1.

Can you please clarify who the symbol refers to?

I don’t speak that language

That is the third person pronoun from Hokkien Chinese.

In this case, I was referring to MegAzumarill's play.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Here

[Fredrick A Campbell]

If Malakittens were cult leader, that might indeed explain why they haven't been executed.

I am not sure town aligned players would dare vote in an execute or lose scenario.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

VOTE: Malakittens

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Sveral of the town players were spot on this game, only for them to end up getting sidetracked and on the wrong path after a while. For a minute on Day 2 I thought NK15 was going to absolutely crush this game until he second guessed his Meg read.

The whole cult mechanic makes the game very tricky because the cult leader needs to be eliminated to win, and on day 3 that meant there was only a single correct vote, which is significantly harder than your usual 4:3 ELO. Easy to say from a mod perspective, but the thing that

should

have produced more caution was that seemingly everyone was okay with Mala dying, which wouldn't make much sense for the cult as it would basically mean an automatic loss for them. Of course, the selfvote in ELO probably didn't help things.


I think as it is cult mechanics are...very swingy and makes games with them difficult. Starting at 9 players and limiting the number of recruits does make it a little easier to balance. I think there's maybe some potential in adapting cult mechanics to a smalltown type of setup but that would take a lot of brainstorming.

I didn't think this idea for balancing the setup through very thoroughly, but this is at least the second iteration of the idea.

Have the cult have a factional recruiting ability that is available every even night.
Worst case for town:
End of Day 1: 6:2
End of Day 2: 5:2
End of Night 2: 4:3
End of Day 3: Cult Wins

Worst case for cult:
End of Day 1: 7:1
End of Day 2: Town Wins

Normal anti-town faction with factional killing ability with same proportions as this setup as benchmark:
Worst case for town:
End of Day 1: 6:2
End of Night 1: 5:2
End of Day 2: 4:2
End of Night 2: 3:2
End of Day 3: Anti-town wins

Worst case for anti-town faction:
End of Day 1: 7:1
End of Night 1: 6:1
End of Day 2: Town wins

Note: implicit assumption: mountainous setup

My first iteration was to make the recruiting ability factional, but that leads to a very fast victory if town doesn't find any of the cult members for the first two or three day phases.

I would like to point out this second iteration has situations that are worse for the faction which is in their worst case scenario.

I'll leave it to other people to figure out if there is a way to balance it more.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

You know, my personal read that I repeatedly dismissed was that MathBlade was intentionally bussed by ProfessorDrapion. I never brought it up because I estimated it is more likely to be an actual attempt to get MathBlade executed.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Also, although I technically won this game, it just feels like I was in a team that was going to lose and was chosen to be in the team that was winning. If anyone was wondering why the hammer on Malakittens took so long, that was because I was offline for too long since the placing of the vote by Not Known 15 and was thus unable to coordinate with Roden for the quick hammer.