Datisi's Café [game over!]


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Post Post #35 (isolation #0) » Wed Sep 14, 2022 2:16 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

I have not been having a lot of fun with Day 1 of large games. So I might try to coast this one out.

But I also might be bad at sticking to that lol.

But for now, and until I inevitably fail at holding back, Peta I declare you a double voter

VOTE: Klick
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Post Post #37 (isolation #1) » Wed Sep 14, 2022 2:19 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 17, mastina wrote:Hi y'all, I'm gonna be fully transparent with this:
I am setting my productivity to 0% today.


You may call that anti-town as much as you want; you can consider it suspicious as much as you want. Which is fair. The scum extra kill mechanism is ludicrously strong and I am fully aware of the risks.

But I have very strong reasons for doing so. I promise that by D4, you'll know why.
I won't go 0% more than once.

But for ~reasons~ I need to go 0% today. Let's just say I'll become a scumhunting GOD.
I kinda feel like you should have just done this, and not declared it tbh.

Are you basically claiming that you have a power worth the over all productivity taking a hit?

Conversely, people probably should not declare intent to go to 100% productivity, because that is paramount to claiming either a VT or a PR with a bad ability.
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Post Post #39 (isolation #2) » Wed Sep 14, 2022 2:23 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 19, Ircher wrote:As long as we achieve 1,275 points out of 1,700 points each day, we will be fine. If mastina is setting hers to 0%, then we need to average 80 points per player to avoid the extra night kills.
Is this just you guessing that this game is a 17:4, or did I miss that info somewhere, or?
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Post Post #41 (isolation #3) » Wed Sep 14, 2022 2:28 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 40, mastina wrote:
In post 37, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 17, mastina wrote:Hi y'all, I'm gonna be fully transparent with this:
I am setting my productivity to 0% today.


You may call that anti-town as much as you want; you can consider it suspicious as much as you want. Which is fair. The scum extra kill mechanism is ludicrously strong and I am fully aware of the risks.

But I have very strong reasons for doing so. I promise that by D4, you'll know why.
I won't go 0% more than once.

But for ~reasons~ I need to go 0% today. Let's just say I'll become a scumhunting GOD.
I kinda feel like you should have just done this, and not declared it tbh.

Are you basically claiming that you have a power worth the over all productivity taking a hit?

Conversely, people probably should not declare intent to go to 100% productivity, because that is paramount to claiming either a VT or a PR with a bad ability.
I have my reasons.

I legit feel that me declaring this could break the game for the town.

The WHY is something that the scum will have to speculate about.
You already did it, so pointless to tell you really - regardless of your reasons.

But I did want to point out to other people that I think that they probably should not declare their intent one way or the other, because it is basically claiming to be a RP or a VT.

really just structured as commenting on you doing it, since that is what sparked the thought in my head.
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Post Post #43 (isolation #4) » Wed Sep 14, 2022 2:44 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 42, Roden wrote:
In post 2, Datisi wrote:
2. using town power roles:

~ during each day, each member of the town may choose how productive they're going to be at work that day, ranging from 0% to 100%.
~ if they do not submit anything, they will default to 100% productivity.
~ at the start of each night, each town member will gain [100% minus their productivity that day] productivity percentage points.
~ for example, if they were 75% productive on d1, they will gain 25% productivity percentage points at the start of n1.
~ in order to use their power role, they must have the needed number of productivity percentage points, as said in their role pm.
~ productivity percentage points do not have to be used immediately, and they do not disappear if not used immediately.
If I understand this right, if we put in 50% productivity then we'll regain 50% back, keeping us at 100% productivity for the next day. Is there any reason that VTs and anyone with abilities that cost 50% or less shouldn't always put in at least 50%?
I don't think you are reading that right. My understanding is that

Every Start of Day, you get 100% productivity points. You chose how many to give to the Cafe that day (x)

You get [100 - x] points to power your pr, that you can bank.

VTs should put 100% to the Cafe during the day, because they have no pr to power.

Mastina is giving 0 to the Cafe, so she will have 100 points for her pr
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Post Post #44 (isolation #5) » Wed Sep 14, 2022 2:47 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

Calling what you give the Cafe "productivity", and calling the points you power a pr with "productivity points" does make it kinda confusing terminology wise
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Post Post #81 (isolation #6) » Wed Sep 14, 2022 5:10 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 53, petapan wrote:VOTE: Ircher

do do do do do do-do do
I'm convinced

VOTE: Ircher
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Post Post #82 (isolation #7) » Wed Sep 14, 2022 5:11 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 55, Uncrowned wrote:
In post 37, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 17, mastina wrote:Hi y'all, I'm gonna be fully transparent with this:
I am setting my productivity to 0% today.


You may call that anti-town as much as you want; you can consider it suspicious as much as you want. Which is fair. The scum extra kill mechanism is ludicrously strong and I am fully aware of the risks.

But I have very strong reasons for doing so. I promise that by D4, you'll know why.
I won't go 0% more than once.

But for ~reasons~ I need to go 0% today. Let's just say I'll become a scumhunting GOD.
I kinda feel like you should have just done this, and not declared it tbh.

Are you basically claiming that you have a power worth the over all productivity taking a hit?

Conversely, people probably should not declare intent to go to 100% productivity, because that is paramount to claiming either a VT or a PR with a bad ability.
damn mega townie analysis from you on something that's already been done congrats you're at the top of my TRs
This feels like a horrible reason to town read me tbh.

Thanks. I hate it.
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Post Post #85 (isolation #8) » Wed Sep 14, 2022 5:20 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

Ah. my bad lol

Probably just because I do see people town read people for dumb things like that on the regular.
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Post Post #87 (isolation #9) » Wed Sep 14, 2022 5:24 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 86, fireisredsir wrote:
In post 73, petapan wrote:
In post 63, Uncrowned wrote:
In post 54, petapan wrote:
In post 52, Uncrowned wrote:let's fucking go i'm back baby

VOTE: Ausuka
town
you wouldn't by any chance be trying to flatter me would you, peta? you know I love being called town you sly devil
yes absolutely what are you going to do about it
i feel like this post is actually AI, believe it or not

i haven't decided which direction yet though

hopefully town
heebie jeebies
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Post Post #354 (isolation #10) » Thu Sep 15, 2022 9:09 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 189, furtiveglance wrote:
In post 39, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 19, Ircher wrote:As long as we achieve 1,275 points out of 1,700 points each day, we will be fine. If mastina is setting hers to 0%, then we need to average 80 points per player to avoid the extra night kills.
Is this just you guessing that this game is a 17:4, or did I miss that info somewhere, or?
Ircher hasn't been on since this. It totally assumes 17/4 whereas I assumed 16/5 like other large games I've seen.

Yeah, was hoping for a quick response to this, but he appears to have gotten off.

I would totally be down to actually just kill Ircher for post 19. It is written very matter-of-fact-ly, not like the math is based on an estimate.

---

On an unrelated note, I declare Titus and klick as Town Enough For Day 1 after reading .
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Post Post #357 (isolation #11) » Thu Sep 15, 2022 9:13 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 221, Titus wrote:I think at least one of Ircher/SS if not both are scum. The timing of this slip argument right as SS gets pushed for reads is a bit sus when that argument was there all along.
I asked, and was waiting for the response. I kinda wished that people had let him respond before chiming in, but :shrug:
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Post Post #360 (isolation #12) » Thu Sep 15, 2022 9:24 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 290, Vivax wrote:I don't like Luke's and Fire's harping on mechanics on Page 2, it's dressing up something simple as an overly complex reason to vote Ircher.
I am confused.

What part of my mechanics posting on page 2 was related to Ircher? (outside of my single line question to him)

I mean, I did chide Mastina about stating her productivity, and say other people should not do that. And then, cleared up a misunderstanding that Roden had.

But how or why are you drawing lines between those comments and Ircher? They are completely unrelated in my mind, with no bearing on one another, so like I said. I am confused.
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Post Post #366 (isolation #13) » Thu Sep 15, 2022 9:31 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 290, Vivax wrote:Though I see why Yume/Ircher using the numbers so accurately
What is leading you to believe that Ircher is using "accurate" numbers?"

And who is Yume?
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Post Post #367 (isolation #14) » Thu Sep 15, 2022 9:32 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 358, PenguinPower wrote:sorry - is your pfp riku?
Yes. Yes it is
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Post Post #370 (isolation #15) » Thu Sep 15, 2022 9:37 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 337, Titus wrote:
In post 330, Something_Smart wrote:
In post 318, Titus wrote:I don't give a rat's ass about 5 scum or 4 scum.
Well, if it's 5 scum then Ircher's town equity goes way up.
How? He's just as frozen...

Titus... what?

How do you not see, that if he confidently was posting about there being 4 scum, and there are actually 5 scum that makes him more likely to be uninformed?

Even if he was scum purposefully saying 4 scum instead of 5 scum, do you think that he was making the conscious effort to say a wrong number, while not having any idea where he was going with that intentional choice?
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Post Post #376 (isolation #16) » Thu Sep 15, 2022 9:44 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 354, Lukewarm wrote:On an unrelated note, I declare Titus and klick as Town Enough For Day 1 after reading 141.
Having actually read up fully, I retract this for Titus.

But I still like Klick.
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Post Post #494 (isolation #17) » Thu Sep 15, 2022 4:08 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 449, petapan wrote:
In post 442, Uncrowned wrote:
In post 438, petapan wrote:it doesn't really make a lot of sense that the supposed "slip" gets brought up to save s_s from pressure because it's not like could plan on ircher making a post like that and pushing it strategically so it's kind of ridiculous
I understand your point here but the post was made and made very early into the game at that so couldn't it still be used? or am i missing something?
i mean just the idea that it was being brought up strategically to take pressure off a buddy, i really don't buy that being a thing someone (even titus) actually thinks about. stuff like that almost always gets found organically
It also lacks follow through.

Like who brought it up? And shouldn't that person (furtive) then be linked to SS?

And if Furtive is strategically bringing up the Ircher thing to take pressure off of SS, doesn't that make SS+furtive scum, and Ircher?

Instead she has ircher as lock scum, and ss as a potential partner, with no mention of furtive who brought it up.

The whole line of thinking does not make sense to me
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Post Post #495 (isolation #18) » Thu Sep 15, 2022 4:09 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 494, Lukewarm wrote:doesn't that make SS+furtive scum, and Ircher town?
Ebwop
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Post Post #526 (isolation #19) » Thu Sep 15, 2022 5:38 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 500, Uncrowned wrote:okay so Titus brought up that the slip could be a distraction for S_S, which would tie Furtive to S_S but as you're saying, wouldn't make sense since furtive SRs Ircher. makes sense.
This feels like you still don't understand me >.<

Spoiler:
In post 221, Titus wrote:I think at least one of Ircher/SS if not both are scum. The timing of this slip argument right as SS gets pushed for reads is a bit sus when that argument was there all along.
Titus appears to be saying that scum presented the Ircher slip argument strategically after SS started getting pushed.

Lets say that that is a thought that you have. "The timing of the slip argument is sus." It feels like that makes:

1) The person who strategically brought it back up
scum
. [Furtive]
2) The person that the argument is distracting from
scum
. [Something Smart]
3) The person who the argument is pivoting towards
town
[Ircher] Unless she is saying it is a bus or distancing I guess



But then Titus's conclusion was that "one of Ircher/SS if not both are scum."

She shows little to no interest in Furtive, despite him being the one who did the thing that she is claiming to believe to be Sus.

And furthermore, out of the three of them, landed on Ircher locked scum, and the one that she has her vote on.

So the whole line of thinking does not make sense to me
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Post Post #527 (isolation #20) » Thu Sep 15, 2022 5:42 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 502, petapan wrote:luke is lock town
[Peta Pictured Below]

Spoiler:
Image
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Post Post #564 (isolation #21) » Fri Sep 16, 2022 12:31 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 551, furtiveglance wrote:^I thought these were the kind of 'main characters' lately, let me know who else you want me to feature!
Heartbroken.

Spoiler:
Image


Relegated to a supporting role :cry:
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Post Post #584 (isolation #22) » Fri Sep 16, 2022 4:31 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 568, petapan wrote:you're the one who chose a fluffy mascot character as an avatar, seems like you cosigned yourself to that role
In post 571, PenguinPower wrote: don't be riku next time then
Yall are right. I should have gone with Manana. Lesson learned
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Post Post #588 (isolation #23) » Fri Sep 16, 2022 5:01 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 573, Ydrasse wrote:need make sure everyone explicitly say why they vote ircher if not just for slip than for which of posts (should be easy since few)
I'll bite.

I was originally on wagon because of the 1700 town points thing, because it was not phrased as a guess. It was phrased as a "here is exactly what we need to do."

Was good enough for early day 1 for me, but his response looks like scum to me.

Spoiler:
In post 451, Ircher wrote:
In post 39, Lukewarm wrote:guess
Just a confident guess. 4 is pretty typical for a game of this size.
VOTE: Vivax

I've read very little since like page 3,
but Vivax is sticking out like a sore thumb.
In post 454, Ircher wrote:
In post 395, Vivax wrote:Isn't Ircher yume?
Here's an example. Vivax is making these theories that 1) have no basis in reality and 2) serve no purpose in reading me or the rest of the game.
In post 456, Ircher wrote:
In post 434, Vivax wrote:Well, because we were on course for an Ircher lim for presumably good reason, and when I checked in I saw a bunch of strange stuff, and the strangest one was him posting a list with mostly reasonable people at the bottom, imho.
This was the other post I saw. Again, not at all based in reality.


The "I've read very little since page 3," feels like he is going into anti-spew mode.

But he is also not very consistent with it. He has read very little (and therefore has few reads), but he also logged in and knew exactly what line of questioning was the reason he was being ran up and needed to respond to. And while yes, my initial question was on page two. It was not causing him a wagon until Furtive brought it back up, and outlined why it could be TMI which happens on page 8. And in that same post he votes Vivax, which he later explains was for posts that come on page 16 and 18.

Claiming to not have read much since page 3, but them commenting on things from pages 8, 16, and 18 all in the same post makes the original claim feel like a lie. One written specifically to limit the number of reads that he needed to put out.
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Post Post #594 (isolation #24) » Fri Sep 16, 2022 5:25 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 593, fireisredsir wrote:
In post 550, furtiveglance wrote:I thought I'd do a 'big' post since people have expressed concern for game length.
also fwiw i think this game has been incredibly healthy so far in terms of being readable and maybe is even a little light on the content

so i wouldn't worry too much about it rn, don't feel like you have to limit yourself
Yeah, this game has been fine actually, unlike the game that made me worried about day 1 in a large lol

*
war flashbacks to the 210 page day 1 of NQN2
*
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Post Post #691 (isolation #25) » Fri Sep 16, 2022 8:51 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 616, jjh927 wrote:Town:
Lukewarm
Klick

Is this sorted?

If yes, why am I at the top?
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Post Post #707 (isolation #26) » Fri Sep 16, 2022 9:13 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 692, jjh927 wrote:It is sorted

Gut
It was fairly arbitrary but it's absolutely sorted by confidence of how I felt at the time
In post 693, jjh927 wrote:I did particularly like 588, not just the post but the fact it even exists
Okay.

The reason I asked was that I kinda thought the most notable things that I had done this game so far was catching the Ircher 17 player thing, and then my posts about Titus.

You seem to disagree with my comments on Titus, and you were not seeming to give furtive any town points for pushing the Ircher thing, so I was confused how those things were planting me at the top and furtive near the bottom.

But I guess I can buy that you liked 588, so this line of questioning kinda lost its purpose. Carry on.
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Post Post #785 (isolation #27) » Fri Sep 16, 2022 11:11 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 771, jjh927 wrote:But anyway, Mastina declaring 0% is absolutely town indicative because no matter what- Mastina made that decision with thought behind it. Scum!Mastina avoids fakeclaims, especially in a situation like this where there's so many unknowns that could unravel it. And if Mastina was scum, declaring any percentage would be a fakeclaim that might become unraveled.
Mastina does fake claim as scum if she feels like she has to based on the set up, just limits how much of what she is saying is a lie.

So, if she were scum with some form of pr, she would have likely realized that she would need to play as though she was doing less then 100% incase she is ever tracked.

I don't really have a read on Mastina atm, but I don't think it is true to say that scum mastina would not lie about her productivity levels.
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Post Post #868 (isolation #28) » Fri Sep 16, 2022 1:54 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 778, jjh927 wrote:I don't think you've considered the range of possibilities that would lead to scum potentially being caught lying about productivity numbers if they make shit up now

Though it depends on what exactly is contained within a scum PM, at the moment we are assuming that only town do anything with productivity numbers.

What if there is a hypothetical role that could determine someone's productivity in the previous phase? How would it respond if it targeted scum? Nobody knows, because it's hypothetical, but it's at least moderately likely given it's not a very far-fetched role design in relation to the mechanic


I can tell you that if Mastina was scum, she would certainly have considered a similar line of reasoning before claiming to put in 0%
This feels like a conversation that will bog down the thread, so imma spoiler it.

tl;dr I think that it is plausible for Scum!mastina, despite her aversion to fake claiming, to come up with the plan to claim it out the gate.

And to be clear, I also think it plausible for town!Mastina to come up with the same plan. I'm just saying I wont be town binning her for it.

Spoiler:
In this exact scenario, you my assumption would be that scum would come back as having contributed 0% -- and if that were not the case, I would expect the scum to be aware of that. (because that would imply they have an ability that lies about their productivity levels to invests). So this is a poor example.

My counter point is another hypothetical.

Scum Mastina gets a role pm, and that role pm includes a role that she intends to use every single night.

She knows that that means that she will show up to trackers and/or watchers out there. So, before the game stated, she realizes that based on the mechanics of the game, she must play as though she has a PR which would require her to use less then 100% of her productivity. This is a forced thing to fake based on the mechanics because showing up on a watcher / tracker report, and also claiming to be giving 100% productivity = provably lying.

I think that Mastina would have likely realized this.

At this point, the question is just, would scum mastina go ahead and fake claim her productivity now, or would she wait until the event that she showed up on a watcher/tracker report, and fake claim what her productivity levels have been from there.

Given the post Klick has been sharing, I can totally see her deciding to get it over with out the gate. I also think that scum!Mastina, once she decided to fake claim a productivity level, would choose 0% specifically because it is the closest thing to the truth (being scum, who is not contributing to the overall productivity)

So, I think that it is plausible for scum mastina, with a pr, to come up with the idea to claim her low productivity early.
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Post Post #871 (isolation #29) » Fri Sep 16, 2022 1:58 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 795, Ircher wrote:
In post 782, Titus wrote:I am very surprised by the FoSes on me that agree with my pushes on Ircher and SS. There has to be scum in there.
Why the 1v1 on us? If I were a gambler (which I'm not), I would wager that we're both in fact town.
In post 796, jjh927 wrote:Could you put into your own words why you think Titus is town, Ircher
In post 798, Ircher wrote:Considering I haven't expressed a town read (or a scum read) there, no.
whip lash
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Post Post #879 (isolation #30) » Fri Sep 16, 2022 2:06 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 839, Vivax wrote:
In post 838, Andresvmb wrote:I made an error typing out my thoughts which I quickly corrected. If you’re going to argue that’s a backtrack, that’s a horrific position to adopt.
Regardless, it's an interesting typo. You type way too much around that opinion for my taste, and the mistake is icing on the cake.
For what its worth, I feel like that kind of typo is actually more likely to come from town then from scum.
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Post Post #880 (isolation #31) » Fri Sep 16, 2022 2:10 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 859, RCEnigma wrote:
In post 853, Something_Smart wrote:
In post 851, RCEnigma wrote:Wit that said, Ircher is the type of scum that’s willing to take a bullet for a partner. So
I don’t think Titus’ argument that Irchers wagon sprung up to divert from someone else is merit-less
.
You think Ircher deliberately baited a wagon on himself? How?
No, I think Ircher meant to push attention somewhere else and it backfired. It wouldn’t make sense to just bait a wagon on himself.

This is not the argument that Titus made
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Post Post #885 (isolation #32) » Fri Sep 16, 2022 2:14 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 874, Ircher wrote:
In post 871, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 795, Ircher wrote:
In post 782, Titus wrote:I am very surprised by the FoSes on me that agree with my pushes on Ircher and SS. There has to be scum in there.
Why the 1v1 on us? If I were a gambler (which I'm not), I would wager that we're both in fact town.
In post 796, jjh927 wrote:Could you put into your own words why you think Titus is town, Ircher
In post 798, Ircher wrote:Considering I haven't expressed a town read (or a scum read) there, no.
whip lash
I feel like I need to clarify my 795 as it seems both you and jjh misinterpreted when reading it. The "us" there is referring to Smart and myself, not to Titus.
Ah.

I did in fact read that as you asking titus why she was trying to 1v1 you, and that you would wager that you were both actually town.
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Post Post #887 (isolation #33) » Fri Sep 16, 2022 2:18 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 803, Ircher wrote:I haven't read much from Titus. I see
she is voting me, so that's minus points
In post 815, Ircher wrote:
In post 812, Ircher wrote:
In post 806, jjh927 wrote:Okay, but if Titus voting you is "minus points" then do you expect that reasonable town players would not vote you here?
I think some would and some wouldn't.
Titus is earlier on the wagon when I had less content.
I left out the second part because I think it is implicit from the minus points comments.
Namely, no, I lean towards less likely to have a viable reason.
In post 816, Ircher wrote:
That would equally apply to mastina and Lukewarm for the record
(though I give mastina a D1-3 pass because she tends to be pretty obvious scum after a while, so it's better to wait.)
Ircher, how did you get from here to there?
In post 872, Ircher wrote: Lukewarm - Town
---
Titus - Scum
---
mastina - Town
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Post Post #893 (isolation #34) » Fri Sep 16, 2022 3:13 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

Oh look, I am being talked about
In post 891, Vivax wrote:
Spoiler:
In post 35, Lukewarm wrote:I have not been having a lot of fun with Day 1 of large games. So I might try to coast this one out.

But I also might be bad at sticking to that lol.

But for now, and until I inevitably fail at holding back, Peta I declare you a double voter

VOTE: Klick
In post 38, mastina wrote:
In post 35, Lukewarm wrote:I have not been having a lot of fun with Day 1 of large games. So I might try to coast this one out.

But I also might be bad at sticking to that lol.

But for now, and until I inevitably fail at holding back, Peta I declare you a double voter

VOTE: Klick
Oh is this the mythical Lukewarm scumgame?

...'Cause it looks like a mythical Lukewarm scumgame.
In post 39, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 19, Ircher wrote:As long as we achieve 1,275 points out of 1,700 points each day, we will be fine. If mastina is setting hers to 0%, then we need to average 80 points per player to avoid the extra night kills.
Is this just you guessing that this game is a 17:4, or did I miss that info somewhere, or?
In post 82, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 55, Uncrowned wrote:
In post 37, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 17, mastina wrote:Hi y'all, I'm gonna be fully transparent with this:
I am setting my productivity to 0% today.


You may call that anti-town as much as you want; you can consider it suspicious as much as you want. Which is fair. The scum extra kill mechanism is ludicrously strong and I am fully aware of the risks.

But I have very strong reasons for doing so. I promise that by D4, you'll know why.
I won't go 0% more than once.

But for ~reasons~ I need to go 0% today. Let's just say I'll become a scumhunting GOD.
I kinda feel like you should have just done this, and not declared it tbh.

Are you basically claiming that you have a power worth the over all productivity taking a hit?

Conversely, people probably should not declare intent to go to 100% productivity, because that is paramount to claiming either a VT or a PR with a bad ability.
damn mega townie analysis from you on something that's already been done congrats you're at the top of my TRs
This feels like a horrible reason to town read me tbh.

Thanks. I hate it.
In post 85, Lukewarm wrote:Ah. my bad lol

Probably just because I do see people town read people for dumb things like that on the regular.


35 - reads like pocketing attempt for a susceptible player
For point of reference, Peta is the only person on this player list that I talk to outside of mafia games.. I also expected him to understand why I would consider coasting in his shadow day 1, since the last completed Large game that I was in was so unbearable Day 1 that both Peta and myself repped out before Day 1 ended (and then proceeded to talk to one another about how terrible the game was, and how all large games should have a day 1 post cap). It also helps that he is someone who I would actually trust his reads.

o be fair, those are all reasons why he would be the person I talked to out the gate as either alignment.
38 - Kinda agreed with it at the time for the whole self-consciousness in post

39 - Very fast ping on Ircher, no adaptation through vote
I did not vote Ircher there for two reasons.

Firstly, I had just said that I was giving my vote to Peta lol

Secondly, I wanted to see if he would talk about his thoughts there before I revealed that I was thinking it was TMI, and I held to that until the moment that Furtive quoted me, explained why I was asking, and voted him for it. Imo, talking to get more information from someone is better then just voting them and putting them on the defensive. (see )

That is also why, when Peta voted Ircher, and I followed him in , I tried hard to play off my Ircher vote as a joke vote.
82 - Reminds me of myself in terminator when a townie wrongly concluded I was town. I snarled at em, more or less (it was Gamma)

85 - extension

Pinging Ircher that early could be read as hedging considering
the slot
Luke seems to act in a rather headstrong way about the reason (mech TMI)
he's
Ircher being wagoned so quickly
I am not really sure what you mean by that last sentence tbh.

What do you mean by "act in a rather headstrong way"?
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Post Post #895 (isolation #35) » Fri Sep 16, 2022 3:35 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 894, Vivax wrote:2) What makes you think Peta wasn't following you?
Because his vote post looked exactly like his first RVS vote
Spoiler:
In post 9, petapan wrote:do do do do do do-do do

VOTE: klick
In post 53, petapan wrote:VOTE: Ircher

do do do do do do-do do


So I did not have any reason to think that he was being more serious there. And I also did not want to ask, given my hanging question for Ircher.
3) Felt like you and fire in unison did the whole mechanics mumbojumbo on Ircher which I pointed out seemed a bit...Expansive on the productivity bit.
You are linking three unrelated conversations into one. On that page, I was:

1) Responding to Ircher, and asking him a question about the possible TMI.

2) Responding to Mastina, and explaing to the thread why claiming your productivity level is bad.

3) Responding to Roden's post , and explaining where he got the mechanic wrong.

Like, nothing I said in response to Mastina or Roden had any bearing on the stuff that happened with Ircher.

And you earlier said that this conversation seemed like role fishing, which feels silly given My point was "talking about productivity is bad, don't do it."
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Post Post #903 (isolation #36) » Fri Sep 16, 2022 4:17 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 896, Vivax wrote:So you pointed out Ircher's mistake first? I think. But you only voted when Peta had to make you vote. Then it was a joke vote, but...

But you're still voting Ircher are you not? Occasionally popping in to question people who townread you.
I feel like the first bit was already pretty well explained. Why I did not vote the moment I saw the thing that pinged me. Why I voted when I did. Why I played it off as a joke (despite it never actually being a joke vote). And why my vote is still there - after his return to the thread, it is my desire is for Ircher to die today.

So it does feel like you are not genuinely engaging with me, so I think I'll stop responding to you today
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Post Post #931 (isolation #37) » Sat Sep 17, 2022 12:37 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 907, fireisredsir wrote:i think his responses to you do have a sort of self-focus to them? idk how to describe. insistence on being understood, maybe
That was literally a conversations about his read on me, so.. yeah. It was self focused lol

Anyways, at this point, it feels like like Ircher is definitely dying, and that it my preferred elim, so I am kinda just in a holding pattern at this point.

It is probably non-helpful for me make it clear who I think I would lean towards being his partner, and who I would lean towards if he flips town. Voicing those would likely just distract from killing Ircher, and tell the scum team if they should consider killing me or leaving me alive to push a miselim. (And I am not confident enough in any day 1 reads to leave as a legacy)

So, holding pattern.

Asking questions if something stands out to me that I want the answer to, and responding to things about me.
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Post Post #1019 (isolation #38) » Mon Sep 19, 2022 11:50 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1017, Malakittens wrote:VOTE: FG

Why are you doing scummy first day opening posts
I am treating furtive Glace as confirmed town through unless he is like alive in elo personally.
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Post Post #1023 (isolation #39) » Mon Sep 19, 2022 11:53 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 290, Vivax wrote:I see why Yume/Ircher using the numbers so
accurately
Is this a 2 for 1, tmi special?

VOTE: vivax
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Post Post #1073 (isolation #40) » Mon Sep 19, 2022 1:25 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1072, Vivax wrote:Thanks for crop
You're welcome
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Post Post #1082 (isolation #41) » Mon Sep 19, 2022 1:41 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 576, petapan wrote:(i mean i kkkkkkiiiiiind ooofffff think vivax posts like he knows ircher's alignment but i'm not gonna harp on it right now)
In post 600, petapan wrote:
In post 582, Uncrowned wrote:
In post 576, petapan wrote:(i mean i kkkkkkiiiiiind ooofffff think vivax posts like he knows ircher's alignment but i'm not gonna harp on it right now)
to touch on this more, if that's the case and theoretically scum!vivax is close to a ML, why do you think he jumps to vote you for that reads list you did or whatever and then switch back to Ircher? i feel like scum would be a little wearier of moving around votes like that, especially for reasons that may seem 'inadequate' to the other players

unless you're suggesting they're both scum in this scenario?
i'm working from the assumption ircher is scum who came back to the thread, saw the massive wagon on him, and probably went into antispew, yes, that's why i said i'm okay with him getting hammered soon

i could explain it more or i could tell you to ctrl + F ircher in vivax's iso and see for yourself
I don't think that Peta was obviously an investigative. I also don't think that he was so widely town read as to be seen as unelimable. I feel like in a town!Vivax, the scum team leave Peta alive night 1 to lead the miselim on Vivax day 2, and then gauge if he looked bad enough on the Vivax flip to be a miselim down the line.

------

Vivax also did that TMI thing.


------

I also felt like Vivax's engagement with me was structured specifically to imply that I was partnered with an Ircher that was getting ready to flip Scum. Like, even if he scum read me, it seems the more natural conclusion was that I was scum latching onto something to push a townie, instead
In post 891, Vivax wrote:Pinging Ircher that early could be read as hedging considering the slot seems to act in a rather headstrong way about the reason he's being wagoned so quickly
If you really break this down, he is not saying that I am scum latching onto a townie making a mistake.

He is saying that I am scum "hedging" -- which reads to me like he is trying to set up the idea that after Ircher flips scum, I was also scum just asking to look good on the ircher flip.

He is positioning his read on my Ircher interaction, already with the basis that Ircher is flipping scum.
In post 896, Vivax wrote:So you pointed out Ircher's mistake first? I think. But you only voted when Peta had to make you vote. Then it was a joke vote, but...

But you're still voting Ircher are you not? Occasionally popping in to question people who townread you.
Again, specifically trying to make me look worse on a scum!Ircher flip.
In post 908, Vivax wrote:I understand Luke, but also that their position wasn‘t an independent one. Lots of pressure to act quickly, it seems.
Time will tell, but I feel there‘s a good roster of hesitating people around Ircher. A town flip would throw my perception around though.

This is scum.
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Post Post #1083 (isolation #42) » Mon Sep 19, 2022 1:43 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1081, Vivax wrote:But scum seeing BBT play like that could assume he was hiding a good PR, and so he did. So why should it be weird, unless you knew the kills?
Are you claiming that you had the thought that his play might resemble a townie hiding because they have a good PR, and then you killed him anyways lmao
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Post Post #1085 (isolation #43) » Mon Sep 19, 2022 1:47 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1081, Vivax wrote:So why should it be weird, unless you knew the kills?
In post 1084, Vivax wrote:It's a very obvious vig shot
:shifty:
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Post Post #1087 (isolation #44) » Mon Sep 19, 2022 1:48 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

Anyways, I would like Vivax to die. He is my strongest scum read by miles.

Also, if you don't wanna sheep my reads, tell yourself you are sheeping Peta's.
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Post Post #1111 (isolation #45) » Mon Sep 19, 2022 2:17 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1097, Vivax wrote:
In post 1093, PenguinPower wrote:
In post 1090, Vivax wrote:P-edit: Always try to follow the guide of some fella called ace when vig. Kill coinflips early. Less wiggle room to push a mislim, and disencourage that type of play.
I think you don't understand how D1 went down.

How many larges how have you played?
Enough
But let's consider this: The ones who called it weird either don't reply (FG) or believe it (Fire)
While Luke goes on attack mode after not commenting, supposedly having no info whatsoever of how many extra kills scum had. At the very least, you'd have reason to assume Luke has an agenda or ulterior motive here.
My vote on you came before you posted this day phase, so acting like I am pushing you in response to your comments this day phase is pretty silly.

I started typing my case out on you immediately after reading 1072, it just took me me a bit to pull together the relevant quotes.

(Which is why 1082 has no comment on your vig claim, because it was written before I read the posts you pedit'ed me with)
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Post Post #1122 (isolation #46) » Mon Sep 19, 2022 2:30 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1115, Vivax wrote:
In post 1111, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 1097, Vivax wrote:
In post 1093, PenguinPower wrote:
In post 1090, Vivax wrote:P-edit: Always try to follow the guide of some fella called ace when vig. Kill coinflips early. Less wiggle room to push a mislim, and disencourage that type of play.
I think you don't understand how D1 went down.

How many larges how have you played?
Enough
But let's consider this: The ones who called it weird either don't reply (FG) or believe it (Fire)
While Luke goes on attack mode after not commenting, supposedly having no info whatsoever of how many extra kills scum had. At the very least, you'd have reason to assume Luke has an agenda or ulterior motive here.
My vote on you came before you posted this day phase, so acting like I am pushing you in response to your comments this day phase is pretty silly.

I started typing my case out on you immediately after reading 1072, it just took me me a bit to pull together the relevant quotes.

(Which is why 1082 has no comment on your vig claim, because it was written before I read the posts you pedit'ed me with)
That would mean you don't find the BBT kill weird enough to believe he was vigged. But then, why don't you agree with suspecting those who did if you are town?
I never said that it was unbelievable for a vig to have targeted BBT.

I don't think that it was even that weird of a thought to have had, so not sure what you are asking me here.

Do I think that it is possible for a townie to think that BBT was a vig kill? Yes.
Do I think it possible that the scum team would target him thinking he is a PR? Yes.

Did I think that you were scummy before your claim? Yes.
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Post Post #1132 (isolation #47) » Mon Sep 19, 2022 2:55 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1126, Vivax wrote:You just made three strawmans you could answer yourself.

The sentence: 'I don't think anything about the BBT kill' would have achieved the purpose of communicating that.

And why is it relevant if you thought I was scummy before? So did a bunch of others.
I was confused by the question. "That would mean you don't find the BBT kill weird enough to believe he was vigged. But then, why don't you agree with suspecting those who did if you are town?"

"That would mean [something that I never said or thought]" Like you made up something I thought, and then tried to use that as a gatcha question on me.

Your example sentence does not even accurately portray my thoughts, because on the flip my first thought about BBT was that his kill was odd given the scum reads on him. My second thought was that the scum team must have guessed he was a PR based on his lurking.

So, I did not think it odd that other people came to the conclusion that it could be a vig kill. It is just a different conclusion from the same thought about the kill.

-----
This reads like you are pre-empting backing off the read, but you missed that train...
As I was typing it, was I thinking about
In post 1109, jjh927 wrote:I highly doubt productivity dropped below 50% simply because of how averages are gonna work here
Because, I had not actually thought about the productivity levels until I read it. I was more focused on the fact that we had no way to know if there even was a vig in this game, because the mechanics of the game gives scum an unknown number of kills. Which also makes this a game where scum could totally fake claim vig. And it also would make sense for you in particular to fake claim it since you got several votes right off the bat start of the day.

But, then I saw the jjh post. And
In post 1005, Datisi wrote:jailkeeper + 1 day neighbourizer [cost: 30%
In post 1005, Datisi wrote:doctor [cost: 30%;
Actually looking at the productivity levels needed to power the PRs, I think that he might be right.

So thats fun. Seems the most likely out come for me this game now is that I am getting Vig shot tonight

VOTE: Titus
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Post Post #1138 (isolation #48) » Mon Sep 19, 2022 3:01 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1135, Roden wrote:
@Vivax:
I'd prefer if you shot me over Luke tonight so that Mastina can't hide behind her fake scum read on me all game.
What?

Why would Mastinas read on either of us matter for his vig kill, and in case you missed it I am her second strongest scum read, so that seems to be of little difference lol
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Post Post #1141 (isolation #49) » Mon Sep 19, 2022 3:04 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1059, Roden wrote:It's tiered, if I don't use my modifier it only costs 5%. That's the version
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Post Post #1198 (isolation #50) » Mon Sep 19, 2022 4:16 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1113, Malakittens wrote:
In post 1019, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 1017, Malakittens wrote:VOTE: FG

Why are you doing scummy first day opening posts
I am treating furtive Glace as confirmed town through unless he is like alive in elo personally.
I’d ask you to share with the class, but I doubt you will.
I actually completely missed this post until Vivax just quoted it.

Because of his push on Ircher Day 1.

I doubt scum!FG sees me ask Ircher about why he said 17 players. Then sees no one else comment on it, sees me say nothing more about it for 5 pages, then suddenly brings it back up, and explains exactly why it makes Ircher likely scum. Like, at that point, I feel like scum would have just started thinking that maybe town would forget about it.

I just don't think that he busses that way at that point.
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Post Post #1202 (isolation #51) » Mon Sep 19, 2022 4:52 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

Vivax, you're comments on Furtive are not rooted in the reality of how day 1 played out.

No one was openly pushing Ircher at the time that Furtive drew all of the threads attention back at his slip. I do not think that scum does what he did, and he is my single strongest town read coming out of Day 1.
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Post Post #1206 (isolation #52) » Mon Sep 19, 2022 5:06 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

Page 8: Furtive brings it back up

Spoiler:
In post 189, furtiveglance wrote:
In post 39, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 19, Ircher wrote:As long as we achieve 1,275 points out of 1,700 points each day, we will be fine. If mastina is setting hers to 0%, then we need to average 80 points per player to avoid the extra night kills.
Is this just you guessing that this game is a 17:4, or did I miss that info somewhere, or?
Ircher hasn't been on since this. It totally assumes 17/4 whereas I assumed 16/5 like other large games I've seen.
In post 195, furtiveglance wrote:
In post 192, Titus wrote:
In post 189, furtiveglance wrote:
In post 39, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 19, Ircher wrote:As long as we achieve 1,275 points out of 1,700 points each day, we will be fine. If mastina is setting hers to 0%, then we need to average 80 points per player to avoid the extra night kills.
Is this just you guessing that this game is a 17:4, or did I miss that info somewhere, or?
Ircher hasn't been on since this. It totally assumes 17/4 whereas I assumed 16/5 like other large games I've seen.
Ok....does the setup state how many scum and I missed it?
No, the setup states we don't know. The point is Ircher could be doing a sus TMI scum slip!


Like, work backwards from there, and tell me why scum!Furtive suddenly thinks he needs to draw thread attention back to Ircher's slip

I'll even do the work for you, and grab each post about Ircher leading up to it (its not much)

Spoiler: Page 7 (Naked Vote from Titus
In post 154, Titus wrote:
I like Ydrasse as town based on how things have progressed so far. Not really seeing the ausuka wagon. Not feeling mastina, even if I disagree on strategy.

VOTE: Ircher


Spoiler: Page 6 (actually nothing)


Spoiler: Mastina voices a scum read on Ircher on Page 5, unrelated to the slip.
In post 104, mastina wrote:
In post 71, Uncrowned wrote:
In post 70, mastina wrote:
In post 49, Andresvmb wrote:
In post 48, mastina wrote:Btw Roden is scum here pretty sure.
Because they didn’t read carefully enough?
No, because I've played with Roden enough to know that this isn’t Rodens towngame.
Roden is also not likely to genuinely make the mistake as town.
Beyond that, the contribution is generically a scum one regardless of the above.
is this premise the same one behind your ircher vote
The bolded, no. But the rest actually is; this is Ircher's scumgame and I don't think he makes the entrance he did here if he were town.
In post 105, mastina wrote:
In post 76, Andresvmb wrote:How many games have you two played together you think?
At least four, maybe more. (With me having watched at least another beyond that as a reviewer with Roden a player.)
In post 79, petapan wrote:nero is having fun and i for one respect it
I respect it, but I don't townread it. Nero's not being as obtuse/obstinate as his town self normally is. He's not exactly as hard-scum as Ircher/Roden are, but he's not above null yet. I'm giving it more time tho because Nero bleeds his alignment given time. But if I had to gun-to-head my read there right now, it'd be scum obfuscating his play.
In post 83, Uncrowned wrote:have my powers of sarcasm failed me
For the record: town.
In post 92, Ydrasse wrote:Gwoke up no reason pos t this good night
Ydrasse also town for suffering the same insanity of posting when they should be sleeping, that I am. :P (No really I was going to go to bed but then on a whim decided to start posting here.)

I'm not as convinced as others are that Andres is town, but I do
lean
town there overall.


Spoiler: Page 4 has my "joke" vote, and thats it
In post 81, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 53, petapan wrote:VOTE: Ircher

do do do do do do-do do
I'm convinced

VOTE: Ircher


Spoiler: Page 3. Only the Peta vote, which looks like an RVS vote
In post 53, petapan wrote:VOTE: Ircher

do do do do do do-do do


That brings up back to page 2, where I originally asked about the 17 player thing. Ircher is simply not the topic of discussion until Furtive makes him the topic of discussion.

So you think that scum!Furtive saw 2 votes that look like RVS votes. 1 Naked vote. And a scum read from Mastina. And decides that he needs to be the one to step up and make his partner a real wagon

I don't buy it.

I would probably bet the game on Furtive being town here. But if it actually gets to Elo with him alive, obviously that changes things.
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Post Post #1264 (isolation #53) » Tue Sep 20, 2022 2:31 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1256, Ausuka wrote:Roden is talking as if his role PM looks something like this

If it did, I mean, why not use your ability?
I have seen several people ask why he would use his ability if he is town, but it feels you are skipping past how little productivity he claimed that it needed.

ngl, if I had a PR that only needed 5% I'm not really sure that I would not have ended up using it even if its bad, on the basis of "well its just 5%." With 17 townies alive, that is as a shift of the town average by -0.29% -- which does feel kinda irrelevant.

Like it only affects the scum kill count if the town is exactly inside the 75.00%-75.29% | 50.00%-50.29% | 25.00% - 25.29% before considering him.

5% would actually be irrelevant in 99.13% of all possible town productivity levels.
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Post Post #1270 (isolation #54) » Tue Sep 20, 2022 2:37 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1267, Roden wrote:Can you just tell me what you're actually accusing me of here

Because right now you're having a conversation but it's not with me
She is saying that your role is bad, and any townie would have chosen to not use their ability.

And since you used your ability, you must be scum.
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Post Post #1271 (isolation #55) » Tue Sep 20, 2022 2:38 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1269, Roden wrote:
In post 1262, jjh927 wrote:
In post 1254, Roden wrote:
In post 1245, Ausuka wrote:Why did you decide to use this role?
...What? Why does anyone ever use a role?
Could you elaborate on the full percentage costs including the extra for the reply thing?
I already did........
I see where you claiming 5% with no modifier.

I don't see where you claimed the % with the modifier
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Post Post #1286 (isolation #56) » Tue Sep 20, 2022 2:54 am

Post by Lukewarm »

Okay, I think that I am here (Tiers unsorted)

Ausuka
furtiveglance
Roden
Vivax
Klick
fireisredsir
Ydrasse
Andresvmb
Malakittens


Uncrowned
jjh927
Something_Smart
PenguinPower


RCEnigma

Titus
mastina


I think that Mastina is actually always scum here, but I also don't think that anyone is going to consider voting her prior to her finishing her day 4 schtick
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Post Post #1291 (isolation #57) » Tue Sep 20, 2022 2:57 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1281, Ausuka wrote:I guess it doesn't matter that much but I just fundamentally disagree with this line of thinking. Sure you might not individually make much difference but cumulatively people thinking this way can absolutely give mafia free kills
I understand your point. Running that role at 100% productivity is probably optimal.

But I also don't think that it is unreasonable for him to have come to the conclusion that his own 5% didn't matter because it was so low.
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Post Post #1294 (isolation #58) » Tue Sep 20, 2022 2:58 am

Post by Lukewarm »

For what its worth Roden, I feel like the way that Ausuka has been questioning you looks townie, even if she is wrong.
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Post Post #1299 (isolation #59) » Tue Sep 20, 2022 3:02 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1295, furtiveglance wrote:Nice area tag, I should use that. A few Qs, Why Malakittens high? Why Uncrowned untowned? JJH posted enough for a read on D1, a townread I think, but at least an alignment read. And lastly.... I could vote Mastina today, if she continues being so opaque.
Mala is mostly vibes. She also had a bit of prickliness day 1 that seemed less likely to come from scum wanting to get people to town read her.

I have retained zero thoughts about any post untowned has made. Probably deserves an ISO, but have not gotten there.

Every post that I remember from JJH was about mechs, which seems like something he would want to talk about as either alignment. Also someone that an ISO might help clear up, but right now he is there.
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Post Post #1305 (isolation #60) » Tue Sep 20, 2022 3:09 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1297, Roden wrote:
In post 1294, Lukewarm wrote:For what its worth Roden, I feel like the way that Ausuka has been questioning you looks townie, even if she is wrong.
I don't think she's questioning me at all. It's busy work with clear intent to get me with a "gotcha" moment without doing anything to actually solve me or try to read me.
I disagree :shrug:

I think that her posts about you make more sense if she is town.

Scum know that you are telling the truth about your percentage points, and as such I don't think that "Roden is posting like his role does not have a percentage point requirement" - is an angle that scum would be as likely to come up with naturally.

So, I think that she is town who thinks that you are scum.
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Post Post #1310 (isolation #61) » Tue Sep 20, 2022 3:17 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1307, Roden wrote:I really don't think it's impossible for scum to fake a reason to scum read someone
That is not what I said.

My point is that if she is scum, faking a reason to scum read you, I don't think that that is the reason she would have come up with.
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Post Post #1314 (isolation #62) » Tue Sep 20, 2022 3:42 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1311, Roden wrote:
In post 1310, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 1307, Roden wrote:I really don't think it's impossible for scum to fake a reason to scum read someone
That is not what I said.

My point is that if she is scum, faking a reason to scum read you, I don't think that that is the reason she would have come up with.
What stops her from doing that?
Scum can *do* literally anything, so this is a silly question.

I am saying that, in my opinion, a town mindset is more likely to come up with it then a scum mindset, so I am leaning town on her for this interaction.

You said you think that I am town, so I was trying to give you an outside prospective because I find it harder to see when you are the person being scum read.

But if you disagree, I guess that's it. She is not in danger of elim right now, so it does not seem urgent to convince you of my read there.
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Post Post #1318 (isolation #63) » Tue Sep 20, 2022 4:16 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1316, furtiveglance wrote:
In post 1279, Roden wrote:If I got seen by a Tracker or Watcher it's a better play for town to just say I targeted someone who died than to let a town PR potentially out themself with a false guilty
I think Roden is town, I see the reason for claiming now.
I also think that Roden is town
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Post Post #1451 (isolation #64) » Tue Sep 20, 2022 10:30 am

Post by Lukewarm »

Scrolled through Nero Cain's iso to see who might want Nero dead, and gotta say. It is absolutely wild that Nero and Peta were both killed in a town Vivax world.
In post 921, Nero Cain wrote:How come RNG is so cruel and wouldn't grant me bullets? I'd give petapans left foot to see a dead Vivax
But also, I could see the scum team thinking Nero was a vig, although the "softs" were pretty loud to be real. But if they did believe it, it might have had more to do with that then any of his reads.

I names I found that he might want dead are :
Ircher, Vivax,
Mala, Titus, Mastina

Spoiler:
In post 915, Nero Cain wrote:this is a dumb post and totes not what he said.

If anything, Mastina is bussing him.
In post 503, Nero Cain wrote:Wouldn't be the first time Titus bussed her teammate
In post 639, Nero Cain wrote:ircher, mala and vivax.




Peta was
Vivax
,
Ausuka, Titus

In post 361, petapan wrote:bad vibes:

vivax
ausuka
titus

(latter two stronger than the former where i may not have a grasp of playstyle)
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Post Post #1454 (isolation #65) » Tue Sep 20, 2022 10:55 am

Post by Lukewarm »

I just want to say that the way that Mastina approached Ircher is the text book way that scum!Mastina engages with her scum partners.

Scum!Mastina talking about her scum buddies, scum!Ircher and scum!cephrir in Control. (I know these posts are in the 400's, but they are all in the first like 5 posts mastina made in the game. It kinda took off while she was busy)

Spoiler:
In post 493, mastina wrote:
In post 5, Ircher wrote:First
VOTE: MUSH
In post 18, Cephrir wrote:Good evening
VOTE: Bell
Scum.
In post 498, mastina wrote:
Bell
Save The Dragons
The Three Bears (Titus, Flea the Magician, Noraa)
NorwegianboyEE
Tet
Roden
tictac
Malakittens
Lady Lambdadelta

Dwlee99
Princess Elodie
Greeting

T3

MUSHSHAGANA
Toogeloo

Galron
MegAzumarill

Arcade Pals (Dunnstral, MariaR)

Ircher
Cephrir


Kinda surprised that I genuinely have a good readslist from literally just two pages but this is genuinely seriously actually a good readslist imo.
Coloring is mine, but Cephrir, Ircher, and Aracde Pals are her partners.
In post 621, mastina wrote:This is, very obviously, Cephrir's scumgame. LLD was dead on the money with her accusation there. If I wasn't sheeping LLD's vote on Ircher I'd be voting Ceph to be honest because he's transparently scum and has been since page two.

This is, very obviously, not Ircher's towngame. LLD's suspicion there is dead on the money and her accusation there is good, so I am all too happy to sheep her there because she's right.

Arcade Pals instantly gave off incredibly bad vibes and while they're not as lockscum as Ircher and Cephrir are, they're still pretty damn suspect.



??!Mastina talking about scum!Ircher in this game:
Spoiler:
In post 30, mastina wrote:
In post 15, Ircher wrote:VOTE: Ausuka
VOTE: Ircher

Scum.
In post 104, mastina wrote:
In post 71, Uncrowned wrote:
In post 70, mastina wrote:
In post 49, Andresvmb wrote:
In post 48, mastina wrote:Btw Roden is scum here pretty sure.
Because they didn’t read carefully enough?
No, because I've played with Roden enough to know that this isn’t Rodens towngame.
Roden is also not likely to genuinely make the mistake as town.
Beyond that, the contribution is generically a scum one regardless of the above.
is this premise the same one behind your ircher vote
The bolded, no. But the rest actually is;
this is Ircher's scumgame and I don't think he makes the entrance he did here if he were town.
In post 105, mastina wrote: I respect it, but I don't townread it. Nero's not being as obtuse/obstinate as his town self normally is.
He's not exactly as hard-scum as Ircher/Roden are
, but he's not above null yet.





And here is every post that Ircher made before she was 1,000% sure that Ircher was scum (3 of them)

Spoiler:
In post 15, Ircher wrote:VOTE: Ausuka
In post 19, Ircher wrote:As long as we achieve 1,275 points out of 1,700 points each day, we will be fine. If mastina is setting hers to 0%, then we need to average 80 points per player to avoid the extra night kills.
In post 20, Ircher wrote:I think we should end the day at 50 pages.


And to be clear, she not once mentions the tmi aspect of his second post.

I struggle to believe that town!Mastina actually has this level of certainty on her Ircher read without that, and I think it makes much more sense that this is a patent pending, Mastina designed, scum/scum partner interaction.
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Post Post #1455 (isolation #66) » Tue Sep 20, 2022 10:57 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1452, Vivax wrote:Damn I've gotten lazy. Thanks. Tbh I need to get my mind to other things than mafia and am slacking heavily and getting my soul sucked in by this thing too much, but that's just the nature of the matter called internet, or leviathan maybe, or jormungandr, or python.
I keep wondering if various religions kept talking about this thing, I could see it.

So what do you think of just lazy inheriting Ausuka and Titus SR's here?
I think that they are worth considering, but I don't just blindly accept others reads.

Peta's talked a lot about his Titus read, and as such I understood, and agreed with it. So, his read is part of my own read atp. But when pressed on the Ausuka read, he kinda fell back into "well, its just vibes really" so, while the Peta kill does not point away from Ausuka, I am not really factoring it into my own read of the slot.
Considering how Nero was threatening me most of the time, one could assume the reads would have been a good motivator for scum to shoot him.
I cannot actually tell if this is sarcastic or not lol
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Post Post #1457 (isolation #67) » Tue Sep 20, 2022 11:02 am

Post by Lukewarm »

If you already scum read Roden, then mastina being scum should probably not affect it, or vice versa.

But Mastina does not bus every partner every game. Control is just the most egregious example I know of lol
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Post Post #1464 (isolation #68) » Tue Sep 20, 2022 11:47 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1461, Vivax wrote:And ‚I don‘t just blindly accept other‘s reads‘ is funny in context

Aside from you just having summarized them for no reason that would be relevant to you, then?
There is a difference between checking to see who might have a reason to want them dead, and
In post 1461, Vivax wrote:just lazy inheriting Ausuka and Titus SR's here?
If you don't see the difference, that's a you problem.
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Post Post #1466 (isolation #69) » Tue Sep 20, 2022 12:04 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1460, Vivax wrote:I think it‘s going to be impossible for me to ever TR Luke this game.
It‘s a miracle if they can townread themselves. Everything about them spells self-doubt
It feels like you have repeatedly misunderstood what I was doing and why I was doing it, then asking questions based on your own misunderstanding, then calling me obviously scum because my response does not line up with that misunderstanding. Before your claim, I thought it was purposeful. But I guess not. Almost feels like we talk different languages.

Which is kinda frustrating on its own, but also you apparently have the ability to kill me out right. So that's double the fun.

I am accepting that you just kill me tonight, and I am gonna try and get all my thoughts out before the day ends. Feel free to not respond to me at all, and then kill me tonight. Engaging with you is draining and I have not really enjoyed any interaction we have had. So, I'm gonna tune you out until I am dead. And then you are probably dead too, and then we can commiserate at the fact that we both lock!scum read the other this game from the dead thread.
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Post Post #1482 (isolation #70) » Tue Sep 20, 2022 4:05 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1468, Vivax wrote:I have to holster tonight anyways I think.
Did you seriously fire an ability on night 1 that that needs >100% for its second fire, and choose to target it using a coin flip?

If so, that's pretty wild man.
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Post Post #1503 (isolation #71) » Wed Sep 21, 2022 2:04 am

Post by Lukewarm »

Roden, I am also interested in a full claim of the percentages for your role.

you already claimed the base role, and the modifier, so I am unsure why you are not wanting to claim the numbers.
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Post Post #1505 (isolation #72) » Wed Sep 21, 2022 2:56 am

Post by Lukewarm »

So, I did my

Now its time for my Luke's Thoughts on Titus wrt Ircher Post: A timeline

The state of Ircher before Titus comments on him: I have commented on the slip. Mastina, Peta, and myself have voted Ircher

Spoiler:
In post 39, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 19, Ircher wrote:As long as we achieve 1,275 points out of 1,700 points each day, we will be fine. If mastina is setting hers to 0%, then we need to average 80 points per player to avoid the extra night kills.
Is this just you guessing that this game is a 17:4, or did I miss that info somewhere, or?
In post 30, mastina wrote:
In post 15, Ircher wrote:VOTE: Ausuka
VOTE: Ircher

Scum.
In post 53, petapan wrote:VOTE: Ircher

do do do do do do-do do
In post 81, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 53, petapan wrote:VOTE: Ircher

do do do do do do-do do
I'm convinced

VOTE: Ircher



Titus shows up, and does a naked vote on Ircher

Spoiler:
In post 154, Titus wrote:
In post 108, Datisi wrote:{snip | Vote Count}
I like Ydrasse as town based on how things have progressed so far. Not really seeing the ausuka wagon. Not feeling mastina, even if I disagree on strategy.

VOTE: Ircher



Next Furtive shows up and outlines the TMI thing

Spoiler:
In post 189, furtiveglance wrote:
In post 39, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 19, Ircher wrote:As long as we achieve 1,275 points out of 1,700 points each day, we will be fine. If mastina is setting hers to 0%, then we need to average 80 points per player to avoid the extra night kills.
Is this just you guessing that this game is a 17:4, or did I miss that info somewhere, or?
Ircher hasn't been on since this. It totally assumes 17/4 whereas I assumed 16/5 like other large games I've seen.
In post 195, furtiveglance wrote:
In post 192, Titus wrote:
In post 189, furtiveglance wrote:
In post 39, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 19, Ircher wrote:As long as we achieve 1,275 points out of 1,700 points each day, we will be fine. If mastina is setting hers to 0%, then we need to average 80 points per player to avoid the extra night kills.
Is this just you guessing that this game is a 17:4, or did I miss that info somewhere, or?
Ircher hasn't been on since this. It totally assumes 17/4 whereas I assumed 16/5 like other large games I've seen.
Ok....does the setup state how many scum and I missed it?
No, the setup states we don't know. The point is Ircher could be doing a sus TMI scum slip!




Next Titus makes a series of posts, where she both adamantly makes it clear that she Scum Reads Ircher, but also is trying to discredit the TMI reason that everyone else is voting Ircher. She also starts laying the ground work to say that SS should actually be the elim, because the timing of bringing up the tmi was suspicious and Actually Just a Distraction from scum!SS.



Spoiler:
In post 201, Titus wrote:
In post 195, furtiveglance wrote:
In post 192, Titus wrote:
In post 189, furtiveglance wrote:
In post 39, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 19, Ircher wrote:As long as we achieve 1,275 points out of 1,700 points each day, we will be fine. If mastina is setting hers to 0%, then we need to average 80 points per player to avoid the extra night kills.
Is this just you guessing that this game is a 17:4, or did I miss that info somewhere, or?
Ircher hasn't been on since this. It totally assumes 17/4 whereas I assumed 16/5 like other large games I've seen.
Ok....does the setup state how many scum and I missed it?
No, the setup states we don't know. The point is Ircher could be doing a sus TMI scum slip!
I don't see how...but you do you. Generates wagons so not gunna fight this
In post 204, Titus wrote:
In post 202, Uncrowned wrote:i mean now we play the game

what's more likely

mr. ircher just guessed the ratio or he's a very informed doggo
Why suppose he's right?

Dude's not town but I hate slip arguments
In post 221, Titus wrote:I think at least one of Ircher/SS if not both are scum. The timing of this slip argument right as SS gets pushed for reads is a bit sus when that argument was there all along.
In post 243, Titus wrote:
In post 226, furtiveglance wrote:
In post 221, Titus wrote:I think at least one of Ircher/SS if not both are scum. The timing of this slip argument right as SS gets pushed for reads is a bit sus when that argument was there all along.
Are you saying I successfully caused a distraction?
In post 227, Something_Smart wrote:
In post 216, Uncrowned wrote:@Something_Smart
oh, I did miss that, but that's not asking for wagon analysis, just reads on particular people.

Ydrasse slightly town, Ausuka null, Ircher null, mastina slightly scum.
Yes but SS replies here.

I struggle to see how town SS sees Ircher as null and has zero comment about the wagons.




While that conversation is happening, now that the tmi slip has been brought up so clearly, the Ircher wagon grows to near terminal size.

Spoiler:
In post 198, furtiveglance wrote:We shouldn't fire Ydrasse, I think they're an Employee. I'll vote Ircher for now but I might unvote if they come on and explain why they thought 17/4.

VOTE: Ircher

Uncrowned I voted someone.
In post 203, Ausuka wrote:VOTE: Ircher

Baa
In post 218, Uncrowned wrote:this is getting good

VOTE: Ircher
In post 219, RCEnigma wrote:I rescind my SS townread.
VOTE: Ircher
In post 269, Klick wrote:VOTE: Ircher

My personal opinion is that Something_Smart is pretty scummy in his own right and I don't have a strong opinion on the Ircher-informed thing, but if we're partnering these two together then sure let's go
In post 277, BlueBloodedToffee wrote:VOTE: Ircher


After the Ircher wagon gets to e-2, with someone saying they were willing to put him at e-1, Titus amps up the certaintly that Ircher is scum, drops the SS line of thinking, and starts pushing the idea that Ircher is frozen. The key thing to me, is that Ircher has not entered the thread a single time in the interim. The only change here is that his wagon went from a smallish wagon, and only Furtive openly discussing the slip -- to the Ircher wagon being very close to going over.



Spoiler:
In post 318, Titus wrote:I don't give a rat's ass about 5 scum or 4 scum.

What I do care about is Ircher freezing. Ircher's last log in was today this morning after he was first asked about the question regarding his assumptions. While it may not be a slip, the freezing doesn't look good.
In post 337, Titus wrote:
In post 330, Something_Smart wrote:
In post 318, Titus wrote:I don't give a rat's ass about 5 scum or 4 scum.
Well, if it's 5 scum then Ircher's town equity goes way up.
How? He's just as frozen...
In post 372, Titus wrote:
In post 370, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 337, Titus wrote:
In post 330, Something_Smart wrote:
In post 318, Titus wrote:I don't give a rat's ass about 5 scum or 4 scum.
Well, if it's 5 scum then Ircher's town equity goes way up.
How? He's just as frozen...

Titus... what?

How do you not see, that if he confidently was posting about there being 4 scum, and there are actually 5 scum that makes him more likely to be uninformed?

Even if he was scum purposefully saying 4 scum instead of 5 scum, do you think that he was making the conscious effort to say a wrong number, while not having any idea where he was going with that intentional choice?
I literally don't care for the setup spec. If we prove 5 scum or 4 scum, I'll reevaluate. I don't care for the slip talk. Never have. It's odd for Ircher to post like that at all, so I don't think it was 100% Ircher. I don't trust any mechanics I don't have personal knowledge of yet.

I care about Ircher's posting or lack there of.
In post 378, Titus wrote:
In post 377, Malakittens wrote:towntold

HA

SORRY TITUS

I'M MORE OBVTOWN THAN U

GET OVER IT
Sure master. You may curl up in my lap now.

Shall I get you catnip? Or you prefer the blood of scum Ircher?





Conclusion:


The time line of Titus's stance surrounding Ircher Partnered.

Scum saw the tmi thing when I asked, and likely hoped that it would go away, but also need to position themselves in case it doesnt.

Her naked voting Ircher, to be on wagon before it blew up, while also not adding any additional attention to it feels like where scum might go.
Her then, scum reading Ircher, while also arguing against the tmi slip (and also setting up a pivot onto SS) feels like where scum would want to live in case Ircher is salvagable.
Her doubling down on the scum read when it becomes clear that he is not salvagable also feels like where scum want to live.

Her "Ircher is frozen" arguement is awkward as hell, given the context of him not being in thread at all from 8:20 PM est on the 14th to 3:30 PM est on the 15th (pretty standard time from someone to be asleep -> work). But, if she is scum wanting to double down on her doomed team mate, AFTER she has made lots of posts saying how the tmi thing is not real, she really did not have many other options.




TL;DR : Titus's positioning around Ircher shifts progressively throughout a time where Ircher is not on at all, giving the appearance that her position is not dependent on Ircher, but actually dependent on the state of Ircher's Wagon. It looks to me like a scum partner, doing some mental calculations on exactly where she needs to be, vs a genuine progression on the slot.
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Post Post #1509 (isolation #73) » Wed Sep 21, 2022 3:57 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1508, PenguinPower wrote:
In post 1505, Lukewarm wrote:So, I did my Luke's Thoughts on Mastina wrt Ircher post.
you borked the link btw.
Thats annoying. It worked in the preview and everything.

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Post Post #1510 (isolation #74) » Wed Sep 21, 2022 4:01 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1506, PenguinPower wrote:
In post 1505, Lukewarm wrote:Her "Ircher is frozen" arguement is awkward as hell, given the context of him not being in thread at all from 8:20 PM est on the 14th to 3:30 PM est on the 15th (pretty standard time from someone to be asleep -> work). But, if she is scum wanting to double down on her doomed team mate, AFTER she has made lots of posts saying how the tmi thing is not real, she really did not have many other options.
tbf - she saw he logged into the site during that timeframe but failed to post which is why I think she said he was frozen.
Yes. I did see her justification for the angle that she took. Does not make it less awkward imo.

Even with that being the case, she is arguing that he logged on, saw my single question about something she did not believe to be a slip, then logged off without responding. Lock Scum. The timeline of when his log on was, to when she is calling him frozen skips the entire time that he became an actually wagon, because the supposed frozen log on was before Furtive outed that post as TMI to the thread.
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Post Post #1514 (isolation #75) » Wed Sep 21, 2022 5:11 am

Post by Lukewarm »

I believe that retroactively coming up with reasonable explanation for herself is one of the strongest parts of Titus's scum game. I think that it plays into her strenghts as a real life trial lawyer, and also plays into the idea that Town Titus's actions are often considered Moon Logic.


Pictured below: Me spotting her weird interactions with her scum partner catboi in NQN2, and then accepting the response she managed to come up with several days later.

Spoiler:
In post 4421, Well Done wrote:
In post 4041, Nashville Dreams wrote:
In post 3638, Well Done wrote:
In post 3469, Well Done wrote:
In post 2113, Well Done wrote:
In post 2109, Cat Scratch Fever wrote:
In post 1705, butterchurn wrote:<snip>
This is a good post! It also looks to me like Nashville Dreams weren't able to maintain internal consistency and forgot who they were supposed to be sussing by confusing Monkeyman with catboi.

I'll keep reading, but based on the most recent VC and scrolling through the last few pages, it doesn't look like the wagon on them developed much further, which is kind of odd, because I feel like this is more solid that anything else that's happened so far this game.
Also:
In post 2070, Titus wrote:Interesting how I postulate that voting Catboi might be required for the game state causes us to be a counter to catboi. This definitely means I need to reset my catboi read when I catch up.
In post 2071, Titus wrote:The only difference I see is who is doing the voting. If it was people familiar with me, I would lean towards scum saving catboi. Yet Butter and Wallflower are not familiar with me.
Would like for Nashville Dreams to acknowledge posts , , / at some point
@ND
I already have.

Motive can tell alignment. The sheer number of times catboi has been counterwagoned suggests he's scum. My play read on him is town. The last I checked our hydra notes, she had catboi scum. Her opinion (at least at the time) plus the votes means I need to reset and check if the votes warrant the belief that scum were shopping for any not catboi wagon.

Even if my gut instinct is right, repeated counterwagons to town in multiball suggest catboi is defending one if not both teams hard.


That's why I need to know about the alleged missing bnuuy wagon.

While VCA isn't proper yet, we can still get theories as to what happens.
Ngl, this is a better answer then I was expecting. Especially the bolded. I feel like that could be the missing context to make those series of posts make any kind of sense.c
I still don't like that it took so long and so many attempts to get a solid answer down. But... I guess I can see why the wagon dissipated
In post 4423, Well Done wrote:Me:

Image


The interaction made her my strongest scum read day 1 (and one of the major Day 1 Wagons) that game, then her explanation managed to shake it off, then she proceeded to make it to Day 8 as scum.
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Post Post #1515 (isolation #76) » Wed Sep 21, 2022 5:11 am

Post by Lukewarm »

Oh.

Well Done is a hydra I was in.
Nashville was a hydra Titus was in.
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Post Post #1554 (isolation #77) » Wed Sep 21, 2022 2:23 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1542, Roden wrote:If you honestly believe knowing my productivity costs would make you town read me, then why aren't going around in a circle asking everyone for their productivity costs? I mean we should believe whatever number people say and take them at their word, right?
I have been town reading you.

I think I understand why JJH wants you to answer his question, and now I also want to know the answer.

So, please don't just be obstinate for the sake of being obstinate.
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Post Post #1555 (isolation #78) » Wed Sep 21, 2022 2:27 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

Its actually hard to say more before you have answered
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Post Post #1561 (isolation #79) » Wed Sep 21, 2022 2:47 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1059, Roden wrote:It's tiered, if I don't use my modifier it only costs 5%.
?
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Post Post #1566 (isolation #80) » Wed Sep 21, 2022 2:52 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

Roden, this is what I think JJH was looking for.
In post 2, Datisi wrote:[cost: 420%; +1337% for each additional usage]
In post 1005, Datisi wrote:[cost: 30%; +5% for each additional usage]
In post 1005, Datisi wrote:[cost: 30%; +10% for each additional usage]
In post 1005, Datisi wrote:[cost: 70%; +10% for each additional usage]
In post 1468, Vivax wrote:I have to holster tonight anyways
The sample role pm, all flipped prs, and the way vivax talked about his has been incredibly consistent that repeated use costs more.

But you have not been talking about yours like it works that same way. And so wanted a "full break down" of your productivity requirements.
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Post Post #1567 (isolation #81) » Wed Sep 21, 2022 2:53 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

I was fully prepared to defend Roden from being the days elimination before he decided to throw a temper tantrum. I don't think that I will be doing that any more tbh.
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Post Post #1569 (isolation #82) » Wed Sep 21, 2022 2:55 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

You popping in to answer was not what I was referencing.
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Post Post #1571 (isolation #83) » Wed Sep 21, 2022 2:57 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

"I won't answer a simple question because you won't fully outline exactly why it matters" despite multiple people, including those that town read you, thought the answer was important gives vibes like you did not know what the "right" answer was.

I am sure that you are going to say that that is not what it is, but you did manage to shoot down my town read on you with it.
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Post Post #1575 (isolation #84) » Wed Sep 21, 2022 3:04 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1572, Roden wrote:no one gave an explanation that made any sense to me.
Yeah, but how was anyone supposed to say "we want you to tell us all the details on your productivity costs, because we want to know if you have the growing cost consistent with all flipped roles so far?" Without telling potential scum!you exactly what to say?
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Post Post #1576 (isolation #85) » Wed Sep 21, 2022 3:05 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1059, Roden wrote:
In post 1053, furtiveglance wrote:
In post 1047, Ausuka wrote:hi uh I would like to as a PSA reminder that using full productivity is an useful night action and something every PR should consider especially if they kinda suck thanks
Mailman does seem insanely useless.....Roden, why bother?
It's tiered, if I don't use my modifier it only costs 5%. That's the version I went with since I didn't find the modifier useful last night.
Why does this post exist, if it costs you nothing to use the modifier?
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Post Post #1582 (isolation #86) » Wed Sep 21, 2022 3:10 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

That does not answer the question.

"If I don't use my modifier it only costs 5%" implies conversely that if you do use your modifier, it costs some value more then 5%.

You are now claiming that that is not the case.

Why did you sit down and type "If I don't use my modifier it only costs 5%"
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Post Post #1584 (isolation #87) » Wed Sep 21, 2022 3:11 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1581, Roden wrote:Because if I leave things vague and don't get voted out then scum might think I'm softing a modifier that could actually hurt them, thus giving them a reason to NK me
Okay. sure. You lie about the cost in order to keep it vague.

Why would you not use the modifier if it did not cost more?
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Post Post #1586 (isolation #88) » Wed Sep 21, 2022 3:22 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

Why don't you just give straight answers....

Are you saying that your role is always send a message, get a response, and you don't get the response simply because Peta died?

And the whole modifier bit was made up as part of this obfuscation play you were doing?

If yes, why make me guess... its frustrating.
If no, realize that your engagement is leaving me having to guess at what you mean, which is still frustrating.
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Post Post #1591 (isolation #89) » Wed Sep 21, 2022 3:27 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1588, PenguinPower wrote:
In post 1581, Roden wrote:Because if I leave things vague and don't get voted out then scum might think I'm softing a modifier that could actually hurt them, thus giving them a reason to NK me
You...aren't in the place though. Like - that's not the likely outcome at this point.
If he is town, then that was the idea when he did it at the very start of the day before all of the suspicions fell on him.

And then he is being this way because we shot down his ingenious plan by questioning him.
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Post Post #1605 (isolation #90) » Wed Sep 21, 2022 3:58 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1602, Andresvmb wrote:I’ll explain why - the productivity mechanic, it hints pretty heavily that mastina has to be Town. You know the cost of using your ability, and if you assume that the flipped PRs all maxed out their use of productivity points so that they could use their abilities once, making some assumptions as to how many PRs there are in the game, you can almost get to a point where you can figure out whether mastina used up productivity points as they described or not. And you know the Town used enough where the Scum were granted an extra kill. I think you almost have to assume mastina did use a significant amount of productivity points to make the math work no? That’s what I started to realize. I don’t know if anybody has brought this up already I’m not caught up, but I’m beginning to think it’s probably difficult to make the math work unless you assume mastina did as they indicated (ergo, Town).
Vivax almost certainly ran at close to 0% in order to fire his vig night 1. Are you factoring that in for your math here?
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Post Post #1608 (isolation #91) » Wed Sep 21, 2022 4:03 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

Town needed to drop 425 points collectively to give the extra kill.

100 from Vivax
70 peta
30 nero
30 bbt
230

195 dropped points from the other 13 townies would be an average of 15 dropped points per person.

I guess this is a math question of how many VTs we think are in the game.
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Post Post #1615 (isolation #92) » Wed Sep 21, 2022 4:14 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1606, Vivax wrote:Then you got several instances of both Yd and Luke sticking out their tongues at anyone considering them town
This is an annoying description of what actually happened btw.

I in general sort from a point of view of whether people's reads on me feel genuine or not.

I did not question every read on me, I questioned the ones that I did not understand.

There were several town reads that I noted, but based on my experiences with those players, it made sense for them to be thinking what they were saying they were thinking, so I moved on

Spoiler:
In post 585, Ydrasse wrote:luke is pr ably town
In post 361, petapan wrote:good vibes:

penguinpower
furtiveglance
lukewarm
In post 502, petapan wrote:in other news if ircher is scum luke is lock town
In post 907, fireisredsir wrote:anyway, it's p in line with what ive seen from town luke and i lean that way so far.


There were also scum reads, like Mastina's, that I ignored, because Mastina's super early day 1 reads always feel like they were pulled from a hat, and I also know that asking her about them basically never helps, and just results in super long walls that are a pain to parse.

The ones that I questions were very specificly ones that I was unsure why they would have me where they had me, based on how they were posting prior.
In post 691, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 616, jjh927 wrote:Town:
Lukewarm
Klick

Is this sorted?

If yes, why am I at the top?
Like this one. I was confused because I was literally number 1, BUT furtive and ircher were both in scum. I was checking for inconsistencies in giving me town points for catching the Ircher slip, while not giving Furtive the points, and to force jjh to put into words why that discrepancy happened.

And this one

Spoiler:
In post 887, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 803, Ircher wrote:I haven't read much from Titus. I see
she is voting me, so that's minus points
In post 815, Ircher wrote:
In post 812, Ircher wrote:
In post 806, jjh927 wrote:Okay, but if Titus voting you is "minus points" then do you expect that reasonable town players would not vote you here?
I think some would and some wouldn't.
Titus is earlier on the wagon when I had less content.
I left out the second part because I think it is implicit from the minus points comments.
Namely, no, I lean towards less likely to have a viable reason.
In post 816, Ircher wrote:
That would equally apply to mastina and Lukewarm for the record
(though I give mastina a D1-3 pass because she tends to be pretty obvious scum after a while, so it's better to wait.)
Ircher, how did you get from here to there?
In post 872, Ircher wrote: Lukewarm - Town
---
Titus - Scum
---
mastina - Town


was specifically because it was inconsistent with his prior posts.


I was not calling out every person who town read me, I was engaging with reads on me that looked faked.
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Post Post #1616 (isolation #93) » Wed Sep 21, 2022 4:16 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 360, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 290, Vivax wrote:I don't like Luke's and Fire's harping on mechanics on Page 2, it's dressing up something simple as an overly complex reason to vote Ircher.
I am confused.

{snip}
And to be clear, I was doing the same to people whose scum reads on me did not seem real.

Like yours, that is specifically why I engaged with you a lot on your read on me.
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Post Post #1618 (isolation #94) » Wed Sep 21, 2022 4:19 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1610, Andresvmb wrote:Given the mechanic, I don’t think it makes sense to think in terms of the “average usage per Town player”. VTs aren’t using any. Let’s get real. So it’s an estimate based on how many PRs there are in the game.
That is the same conclusion that I drew?
In post 1608, Lukewarm wrote: I guess this is a math question of how many VTs we think are in the game.
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Post Post #1619 (isolation #95) » Wed Sep 21, 2022 4:20 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

oh. maybe you were responding to Vivax, and not me.
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Post Post #1623 (isolation #96) » Wed Sep 21, 2022 4:28 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1613, Andresvmb wrote:And since the mechanic is only influenced by the choices made by the Town, I have to think mastina influenced the score. I would be more skeptical of mastina if the Scum had only had one kill, and you were here claiming a Vig shot. Then, they probably lied about their use of productivity points.
I agree with you that Vivax + Peta (+1) likely needed to be pretty low to get us to the bonus kill, based on the numbers.

So, from that it does feel safe to conclude that there is at least 1 more strong town PR out there after Vivax and Peta.

If Mastina is town, then that is her.

But if she is scum, that just means that there is a strong PR out there who has not claimed that they are a strong PR.

I don't agree that that means town bin mastina. But I have also resigned to the fact that she gets to day 4 before she is sorted, so maybe we will see such a flip or have such a claim happen by then, and we can pick it up from there I think.
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Post Post #1624 (isolation #97) » Wed Sep 21, 2022 4:29 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1620, Andresvmb wrote:No it was to you Luke and to Vivax at the same time. I criticized the calculation of the average use per player because it makes it seem less difficult for the average to be <75% if Vivax used 100%. That’s more why. But I don’t think we disagree.
The average was just the basic math, then I jumped to the conclusion that it mattered how many prs we have in the game.

I feel like we were thinking about it the same way, and you just misunderstood me.
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Post Post #1628 (isolation #98) » Wed Sep 21, 2022 4:32 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1622, Vivax wrote:And I don‘t know how Luke cooks posts so quickly but it‘s sort of scary and feels very reactive.
I secretly have 1,000 monkeys constantly typing away at keyboards in an office building, and I am just scanning through looking for the best ones to cop and paste. They have gotten pretty good at it, my posts in my first few games were nearly unintelligible.
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Post Post #1630 (isolation #99) » Wed Sep 21, 2022 4:36 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1629, Vivax wrote:Lukewarm scum here just eats you for breakfast in every scenario and it looks like a player that should murder scum with a snip of the fingers judging by the lightning speed they write these walls of text
Do you actually think that my typing speed and post length are different across alignments?

Or are you just complementing my middle school typing teacher, and hating on the fact that I am in fact a wall poster?
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Post Post #1634 (isolation #100) » Wed Sep 21, 2022 4:42 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

Been thinking over Roden, and I still want Titus to be todays elim.

I was town reading him before the obstinate stuff, and I kinda think that Vivax is right that he might just be... less obstinate if he was scum.

I also think that his role being 5%, and not growing each usage, while not being consistent with the flipped PRs, does not seem completely outside of the realm of possibilities, beacause the ones that grow are actually good lmao. Also, it has a hidden negative utility, in that it created false guilties from Peta's role, something that would actually already become a stronger and stronger negative the longer the game went on, and the likely hood that they would over lap would increase.
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Post Post #1636 (isolation #101) » Wed Sep 21, 2022 4:47 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1635, Andresvmb wrote:
In post 1633, Vivax wrote:Oh good to know a Roden voter didn‘t even read them, Andres.
That surely warrants you acting like some sort of Luke extra head here
I haven’t read the last 8 pages or so. What’s your problem? You have a view, and since you’re not getting your way, you’re pouting. And what have I said that is a rehash of what Luke has said? Please, enlighten me.
I believe he said that because you lean town on me, and you posted why you are leaning town on me.

I am his strongest scum read.
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Post Post #1637 (isolation #102) » Wed Sep 21, 2022 4:47 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1626, Andresvmb wrote:Like fine I really don’t know if Lukewarm is experienced Scum who would have positioned around their Partner upon them slipping by pointing it out and burying them for it. I haven’t played with them enough. But on average, I don’t think so, and I’m skeptical that this is the easiest explanation. Someone with an eye for math would have surely gotten interested in the numbers Ircher was putting out, and very quickly realized that they had to be assuming we’re in a 17:4 game - which is not immediately obvious. This gets at what people look for or what they’re interested in, in part. So yeah no I don’t buy it that Lukewarm is Scum because they pointed out the assumption first. I would have panicked there and truly ignored it unless they couldn’t get out from under it.
He was referencing this post.
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Post Post #1648 (isolation #103) » Wed Sep 21, 2022 5:02 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1641, Vivax wrote:On the other hand, it‘s Titus who has been vocal about the possibility of a mastina bus world, so now I‘m wary that it‘s the first alternative to roden that Luke suggested
I-
I'm the one who made a whole thing about Mastina likely having bussed Ircher.
In post 1454, Lukewarm wrote:I struggle to believe that town!Mastina actually has this level of certainty on her Ircher read without that, and I think it makes much more sense that this is a patent pending, Mastina designed, scum/scum partner interaction.
Like, your whole argument on Mastina is almost a copy paste of my own.

Titus has Mastina as town.
In post 1325, Titus wrote:Mastina is highly unlikely to be scum.
And, "wary that it's the first alternative to roden that Luke suggested" like I did not write out a whole case on Titus.

You are are not even reading my posts, just popping in to tell every one repeatedly how evil I am.
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Post Post #1657 (isolation #104) » Wed Sep 21, 2022 5:38 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1654, Uncrowned wrote:
In post 30, mastina wrote:
In post 15, Ircher wrote:VOTE: Ausuka
VOTE: Ircher

Scum.
In post 31, mastina wrote:
In post 18, fireisredsir wrote:bc this game doesn't have a postcap and larges can sometimes get kinda miserable without one, if d1 starts to get close to like idk 80-100 pages i suggest we simply yeet someone

who wants to join me on this mission

we need 10 more to sign the pact

VOTE: ausuka
Probably a scum try hard, which on D1 is a treat-as-town.
In post 38, mastina wrote:
In post 35, Lukewarm wrote:I have not been having a lot of fun with Day 1 of large games. So I might try to coast this one out.

But I also might be bad at sticking to that lol.

But for now, and until I inevitably fail at holding back, Peta I declare you a double voter

VOTE: Klick
Oh is this the mythical Lukewarm scumgame?

...'Cause it looks like a mythical Lukewarm scumgame.
ayo tho luke interesting you left these out when you were comparing this game to mastina's most 'egregious' bus o.o
There is a more to it then just "Oh look, mastina called people scum in this game, and mastina called her scum buddies scum in this other game"

Mastina calls people scum in every game, from both alignments.

When I did the comparison, I was saying that her posts about Ircher do not clear her from being partnered with Ircher, because she has no issue lock!Scum reading a scum partner in her first 5 posts.
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Post Post #1659 (isolation #105) » Wed Sep 21, 2022 5:42 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1650, Vivax wrote:I‘d like to know where your head is at in simpler terms. Because your approach to the game is so holistic that it reads to me like you have no actual intention of finding a specific player and killing them today while keeping wagons off your townreads.

Like...You consider a lot of things at once in parallel, but don‘t really point and shoot. I hope this doesn‘t come across as mischaracterizing, but it‘s what keeps me sus on you.
I made a reads list in .

I made a scum case against my two strongest scum reads, Mastina in and Titus in .

Hope that helps
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Post Post #1663 (isolation #106) » Wed Sep 21, 2022 5:51 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1661, Uncrowned wrote:or were you saying it was too late for her to join on the TMI thing so she was caught in a bad spot
Yes. This.

When she first started saying it was not TMI, only Furtive was calling it that, and there was no way to know for sure if it was going to take off or not.

Then, she came up with the new reason after his wagon took off.
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Post Post #1717 (isolation #107) » Thu Sep 22, 2022 3:28 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1668, mastina wrote:{Lukewarm, Roden, RCEnigma} are the three players I would most expect to kill peta (admittedly, per peta's reputation, everyone has reason to kill peta, it's just that these are the players I'd MOST expect to)
I doubt I ever kill peta here, unless my partners are either of Vivax and Titus. But you are arguing that they are both town and that I am scum.

He literally called me locked town on an Ircher scum flip, and had not yet explained it. He also had vivax and Titus as his strongest scum reads.

I don't kill that slot in the world that you are perpetrating to believe is the the world that we are in. I wait until night 2.

The rest of every thing that Mastina said about me feels like lots and lots of walls of text to say the vibes are off, so :shurg:
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Post Post #1721 (isolation #108) » Thu Sep 22, 2022 3:49 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1688, mastina wrote:I was quite aware of when I pushed Ircher that if I was right it'd look like Control. So I'd be the first to admit that. I was aware from pretty much the second I voted Ircher, "if he's scum people are going to compare this to Control".
I would like to be clear, that my point was NOT that it looks like The Single Game Control. My point was that it looks like the way that scum!Mastina, in general, interacts with her scum partners early on.

Here is NQN 2, where she scum lock 1 of her buddies in her first 5 posts, and calls another one of her buddies partnered with that partner she just scum locked.

Spoiler:
In post 426, mastina wrote:
In post 74, Flavor Leaf wrote:Early game is for future me to look over and analyze, not for present me
Scum.

VOTE: Flavor Leaf
Policy. :P
In post 428, mastina wrote:
In post 167, Enchant wrote:I am in hood with Flavor and indeed he asking for me.
Scum with Flavor Leaf running an FL gambit. :P
In post 432, mastina wrote:
In post 190, Titus wrote:
In post 185, Tracer Bullet wrote:Titus rolled scum I see
Totally, but why are you saying that? I find it funny (not sure alignment wise) that you're attacking the vote without asking why or defending Ducks.
Town.

NorwegianboyEE

Save The Dragons

Well Done (Dunnstral & Lukewarm)
Nashville Dreams (Titus & Malakittens)

Cat Scratch Fever

tictac
MegAzumarill

catboi

Sword of Ducks
Menalque
Wallflower

momo
cassowary
The Keeper
MalcolmTucker
Tracer Bullet



Klick

bnuuy


Enchant

butterchurn
=
Flavor Leaf
=
MonkeyMan576




Locktown of Locktown, Locktown, Strong Town, honestly-just-assuming-town, lean-town, null, lean scum, scumread, Scum.
Color is mind, red are her partneres | Green is not her partners, was mutliball, so they are not all town. But from her POV they would have been equivalent.

This next one is much later in the day, but also makes it more clear that she really does double down on it
In post 3540, mastina wrote:FL and Enchant are hard-bound together; those two are always scum together.
And even opening up day 2, she is still going hard on calling FL scum
In post 5921, mastina wrote: VOTE: Flavor Leaf
-Still scum,
-Still alive,
-I don't care about FL's claim, the prior to are more important,
-He has a wagon on him
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Post Post #1722 (isolation #109) » Thu Sep 22, 2022 3:51 am

Post by Lukewarm »

@untowned The NQN example might make it more clear why I did not reference everyone she called scum this game. Because in that game she had 4 scum reads, 2 of them were town.
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Post Post #1734 (isolation #110) » Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:14 am

Post by Lukewarm »

"I have 3 scum reads, but they don't really make sense as a team" does not seem like a wild stance for someone to have.
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Post Post #1784 (isolation #111) » Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:22 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

It sure feels like you just don't understand me, and there foreyou think I am scum.

It is wild that you have such a strong tone read on me, since we have literally never played together.

Almost everyone in this game who has played more then 1 game with me before has me as town. (Mastina is literally the only one of those people calling me scum btw). This is my town tone. -- But I also doubt there is anything that I can say to actually convince you of it

Spoiler:
Players, in order of how many games I have played with

Peta's read on me was town

Ydra's read was probably town

Mastina has me as scum, but you and I both think she is scum

Fire said that the things you were calling out were consistent with me town.

Titus has zero mention of me
Mala has zero mention of me

SS has me in his town pool

Roden has me as town.

Furtive has me as town

Penguin Power has me as town.

Everyone else I think is 0-1 games with me


If this was somehow a clear cut scum indicative tone for me, do you really think that you alone would spot it over everyone with experience with me?
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Post Post #1785 (isolation #112) » Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:26 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1751, Datisi wrote:Roden [5]:
mastina
, Andresvmb, Klick, Malakittens, Ydrasse
All of these people (and also Titus who voted since the vote count), really need to check in post his full claim and all of the interactions surrounding it, and declare that they still want to be voting him, or find a new place to be.

I feel like there has been a lot of Roden things that happened since these votes were cast, but very little of the people voting there really reacting to them.
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Post Post #1786 (isolation #113) » Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:30 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

I am keenly aware of the fact that there are zero members of the scum team actually angling for me to get eliminated, despite a confirmed townie more then willing to lead the miselim on me. Even Mastina, who is calling me scum has made it clear she has no intention on voting me.

It seems likely that the scum team, seeing Vivax making it very clear that he intends to shoot me, is just gonna sit by and let that happen. It keeps Vivax's vig shot from being a danger to them.

So, I think that makes Fire and Andres very likely to be town for their recent posts made directly to vivax, about me.
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Post Post #1787 (isolation #114) » Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:33 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1784, Lukewarm wrote:Titus has zero mention of me
This makes this makes sense to me. Between the number of games that Titus and I have had together, and me being the loudest voice calling for her elimination, I would expect her to have *some* thoughts about me here. But instead its crickets.
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Post Post #1790 (isolation #115) » Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:42 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1748, mastina wrote: I can tell you that this game I most certainly wouldn't have valued Ircher's life above my own and therefore had no reason to bus him. Yes he was deadweight, but deadweight can still be saved reasonably from a town perspective. (Could've sworn that article had a section where I say "your town self is stupider than you give yourself credit for", but oh well.)
This feels quite contradictory to your own self meta of your scum game

Subject: Mini 2254 | Subreddit uPick | Fin
mastina wrote:
unless mastina has a reputation for bussing her partners (and flips scum).
Actually, I do.

Because I never am intended to be the deepscum and am always the weak link on my scumteams (I have never lived as scum in over three years and have always died prior to that), why wouldn't I bus? I'm guaranteed to die every scumgame I ever play, so when I die my flip will make my scumbuddies look a lot better.
So, why are you now acting like listing Ircher as your strongest scum read on page one is something that you "certainly wouldn't" have done this game as scum?
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Post Post #1792 (isolation #116) » Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:44 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1790, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 1748, mastina wrote: I can tell you that this game
I most certainly wouldn't have valued Ircher's life above my own and therefore had no reason to bus him.
Yes he was deadweight, but deadweight can still be saved reasonably from a town perspective. (Could've sworn that article had a section where I say "your town self is stupider than you give yourself credit for", but oh well.)
This feels quite contradictory to your own self meta of your scum game

Subject: Mini 2254 | Subreddit uPick | Fin
mastina wrote:
unless mastina has a reputation for bussing her partners (and flips scum).
Actually, I do.

Because I never am intended to be the deepscum and
am always the weak link on my scumteams
(I have never lived as scum in over three years and have always died prior to that),
why wouldn't I bus?
I'm guaranteed to die every scumgame I ever play, so when I die my flip will make my scumbuddies look a lot better.
So, why are you now acting like listing Ircher as your strongest scum read on page one is something that you "certainly wouldn't" have done this game as scum?
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Post Post #1793 (isolation #117) » Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:46 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

The post from the Subreddit game was from the post game, when mastina was just talking. Not playing Mafia btw
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Post Post #1795 (isolation #118) » Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:59 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

Like, the only way Mastina's claimed way she would view this game as scum in , meshes with her own self view of how she approaches games as scum (for a 3 year streak of doing it this way), is if she is some how claiming that as she wrote Post and Post and Post and Post , she ALREADY would have known that the value of her life vs the value of Irchers life was well outside the standard.

No one had called Ircher's post TMI yet at that point, and he was not a serious wagon.

And she is saying that confidently about this game.

I actually think that the only way that she could even get to there, is if she is pre-supposing herself not as scum in the hypothetical, but specifically scum with a really strong PR.
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Post Post #1827 (isolation #119) » Thu Sep 22, 2022 4:30 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1797, fireisredsir wrote:luke im confused, whats the difference between what she says in the upick post-game and the first paragraph of that same in this game?

maybe im missing something but i don't get the disconnect
I'm gonna spoil this, because the only way to make it clearer is long winded, and probably no one but Fire actually wants the long winded answer.

Spoiler:
In the upick game she said that she has a reputation for bussing her scum buddies, because she views herself as always the weak link, and as such, "why wouldn't she bus?" -- this is her resting, natural view of her position wrt to her partners for the last 3 years. "I am the weak link, I might as well bus to make my partners look good."

In 1748, she is instead claiming that she "most certainly wouldn't have valued Ircher's life above my own and therefore had no reason to bus him."

Her stance on Ircher was settled in posts 30, 104, 105, 109.

She is trying to claim that she would not have written those posts as scum This Game, because she would not value Ircher over herself This Game.

As of post 109, there is no intrinsic reason her, as hypothetical!scum, to have viewed her value comparative to Ircher's as substantially different then her Standard View. No one was pushing him for the TMI yet, he was not a serious wagon.

So, she is either, making an argument just for the sake of clearing herself, that does not actually reflect the game state of when she made the post.

Or, there is an Implied Reason that she would value herself Higher then her Standard View of herself as scum or she would value Ircher Less then her Standard View of her partners as scum.
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Post Post #1828 (isolation #120) » Thu Sep 22, 2022 4:32 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1808, Vivax wrote:
In post 1806, Titus wrote:
In post 1802, Vivax wrote:I‘ll be honoured if anyone compared me to Garfield
It‘s surprisingly accurate lmao :P

Am I vain, or who? TF do I know I only play invitationals for now.
And also that we live in parallel realities. I <3 this country
Luke scum. He expects me to acknowledge him because he posted a lot of words equalling waaah Titus caught my partner for bad reasons
Waaaah we ride shiny and chrome valhalla style?

VOTE: Roden

Ergh I can‘t stop laughing at all of this including past games
What part of this conversation results in you going back to Roden?

I am confused
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Post Post #1834 (isolation #121) » Thu Sep 22, 2022 4:45 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1806, Titus wrote:he posted a lot of words equalling waaah Titus caught my partner for bad reasons

To be clear, my reasons to think Titus are scum are the following (trying to make it more succinct) :

-She tried to get ahead of the TMI reasoning, and shoot it down. Repeatedly saying that it was not TMI |
-She tried to set up SS as a pivot option away from Ircher, calling the TMI case a conveniently timed distraction from SS (while also, bafflingly still calling Ircher scum) |
-She then dropped the SS stuff, and hard doubled down on calling Ircher scum once the wagon got super serious. The timing looks like it is specifically because of the wagon size. | onward

-She also makes the most sense as someone wanting to kill Peta, because Peta was also scum reading her for the above reasons. |
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Post Post #1836 (isolation #122) » Thu Sep 22, 2022 4:46 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

Datisi is the mod lol
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Post Post #1839 (isolation #123) » Thu Sep 22, 2022 4:49 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1838, Titus wrote:Oh look Lukewarm in bus spot, why did you back off?
lol
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Post Post #1853 (isolation #124) » Thu Sep 22, 2022 5:13 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1846, Titus wrote:Luke fiiight me I dare uuuuu
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Post Post #1854 (isolation #125) » Thu Sep 22, 2022 5:15 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1848, Titus wrote:Oh were you planning on faking vig and Vivak true claimed first
Titus, I would love to see what posts you can pull up to support this idea, because this is one that is so out of left field I'd actually be impressed if you can manage to make it seem logical in some way.

(after you have the time of your life at the Demi concert, and sleep all of this off of course lol)
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Post Post #1856 (isolation #126) » Thu Sep 22, 2022 5:31 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

Gonna current page this
In post 1834, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 1806, Titus wrote:he posted a lot of words equalling waaah Titus caught my partner for bad reasons

To be clear, my reasons to think Titus are scum are the following (trying to make it more succinct) :

-She tried to get ahead of the TMI reasoning, and shoot it down. Repeatedly saying that it was not TMI |
-She tried to set up SS as a pivot option away from Ircher, calling the TMI case a conveniently timed distraction from SS (while also, bafflingly still calling Ircher scum) |
-She then dropped the SS stuff, and hard doubled down on calling Ircher scum once the wagon got super serious. The timing looks like it is specifically because of the wagon size. | onward

-She also makes the most sense as someone wanting to kill Peta, because Peta was also scum reading her for the above reasons. |
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Post Post #1889 (isolation #127) » Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:26 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1863, mastina wrote:Y'know Lukewarm for someone accusing others of not reevaluating Roden off of new info...

...You sure seem to not be reevaluating Titus off of new info!

Gee, I wonder why there's this inconsistency between your stance/approach on Roden, and your stance/approach on Titus.
What new info am I ignoring?
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Post Post #1891 (isolation #128) » Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:28 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1862, mastina wrote:
In post 1848, Titus wrote:Oh were you planning on faking vig and Vivak true claimed first
For the record: anyone with any semblance of doubt that Titus is town need look no further than drunk-Titus's post here.

The tinfoil theory that Lukewarm is scum who planned to fakeclaim vig before Vivax realclaimed it is one that I don't think Titus could come up with if she were scum--and even if she
could
, certainly not while
drunk
could she explain/out this theory so fluently.
Ah, reading backwards :oops:

I don't find her coming up with a reason to push me town indicative, and also your bar for "so fluently" is broken lol
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Post Post #1894 (isolation #129) » Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:34 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1858, mastina wrote:Because in this game, I wouldn't have. It's that simple, really. I didn't say I couldn't, or that in general I wouldn't. I said that in this game I wouldn't.

I meant exactly what I said. I might bus to set Ircher up in general. But in this game I wouldn't. In this game Ircher would explicitly be worth less than me. And I don't bus scum who are worth less than me; I only bus scum who are worth more than me. So in this game specifically, I wouldn't have bussed Ircher. I would have strong reason to not have done so. (Specifically, because of knowing about CONTROL. A big, big thing about my scumgames is that I avoid doing the same ploy twice. I bussed Ircher in CONTROL, which means that I couldn't bus Ircher in this game because everyone would know about how I did so in CONTROL. Bussing the same player the same way in two scumgames would mean that if the game has literally any of the same players or literally any player who looked at the previous game, they'd make the connection. It's surface-level stupidity to think I'd do the exact same move twice for the same scumbuddy.)
This does not answer the actual question.
In post 1748, mastina wrote:I can tell you that this game I most certainly wouldn't have valued Ircher's life above my own and therefore had no reason to bus him.
This is the statement that you made about this game.

I am questioning why you "most certainly wouldn't have valued Ircher's life about your own" in this game, as you wrote out posts about him leading up to 109.
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Post Post #1895 (isolation #130) » Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:38 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1859, mastina wrote:
In post 1795, Lukewarm wrote:she ALREADY would have known that the value of her life vs the value of Irchers life was well outside the standard.
This is a scumslip from Lukewarm revealing he knows I'm town.

Because, uh: if I were scum with Ircher then I'd know the value of my life versus his from the moment I got my role PM--well before the first game posts of the game. I'd know which players were town (which gives me an idea of what the playerlist will think of me), and I'd know what our roles were.

The only way I wouldn't know the value is if I was town.
What?

I am literally arguing that that is a perspective slip from you.

If you were town, making the hypothetical, you should be at your default. And your default is that you are the weak link on your team.

The fact that you, in your hypothetical, so confidently said that you would actually have valued your own life over Irchers, feels like you are adding some mental math into that hypothetical (such as knowledge of your scum PM) that your town self would not have access to to factor in OR you are just trying to make up a reason to self clear yourself.
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Post Post #1896 (isolation #131) » Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:47 am

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In post 1861, mastina wrote:Check Lukewarm's read progression on Roden and fireisredsir.
You are welcome to do so.

My read on Roden went from Null, to town when he told Vivax to shoot him over me. Because I know that Vivax immediately shot that idea down, but I felt like the kind of line that he would be scared to make as scum. It then strengthened when he got frustrated with Ausuka. After she was pushing him on an angle that she had misunderstood, the argument that she was just making stuff up to scum read him made more sense to me if he was town then if he was scum actually making up his claim. The level of defiance there.

I then got really frustrated with his refusal to engage with jjh or myself, and that frustration translated into me being unsure of my town read any more and willing to let his wagon go through, but then, once I got past being in that moment, I went back to thinking that he was town.

Fire, I generally leaned town on him day 1 for vibes, but had not done an iso on him, so it was a more amorphous read. And that recently strengthened because of the timing oh him defending me to Vivax not making sense for how I would think that scum would be interacting with Vivax wrt to me.
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Post Post #1897 (isolation #132) » Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:50 am

Post by Lukewarm »

That line feels like "luke has town reads, who also town read him. Must all be scum" Which is kinda silly.
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Post Post #1898 (isolation #133) » Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:54 am

Post by Lukewarm »

Which also ignores the fact that I spotted exactly what jjh was asking for, and then joined in asking Roden to answer. But in the world you are building, did not go into the scum chat and tell roden that he should at a +5% for every use whenever he full claimed the percentage.

Speaking of, I think that in the world that Roden is scum, jjh and mastina are more likely town for a similar reason. So, a roden scum flip would likely do a lot of heavy lifting on changing my mastina read-- but I also just think that Roden is town, so :shrug:
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Post Post #1899 (isolation #134) » Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:58 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1723, Ydrasse wrote:idle thought if roden flips town there’s mafia in the people who doubled down on him after he was being stubborn as an acceptable reason to kill him
In post 1893, Ydrasse wrote:titus valiantly trying to defy the drunkposting = town theory

Hey Ydra, is there a reason you are still on the Roden wagon?
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Post Post #1902 (isolation #135) » Fri Sep 23, 2022 6:04 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1900, Ydrasse wrote:
In post 1899, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 1723, Ydrasse wrote:idle thought if roden flips town there’s mafia in the people who doubled down on him after he was being stubborn as an acceptable reason to kill him
In post 1893, Ydrasse wrote:titus valiantly trying to defy the drunkposting = town theory

Hey Ydra, is there a reason you are still on the Roden wagon?
I read like half a page of this game a day but i was probably going to move to titus Soon
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Post Post #1945 (isolation #136) » Fri Sep 23, 2022 2:49 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1923, Vivax wrote:A smart-ish approach for scum would be to just generally suspect the counterwagon, which your post seemed to have the intention of doing
I am a little confused by this. Do you mean that the smart thing for him to do, as scum, is to try to build the counter wagon?

If so, doesn't him showing up, and calling our people for "parking" on Ydra do the opposite? By calling the votes parked there, it feels like the outcome is that
it could cause those votes to move, right?
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Post Post #1946 (isolation #137) » Fri Sep 23, 2022 2:50 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

Maybe I am misunderstanding your point, idk
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Post Post #1947 (isolation #138) » Fri Sep 23, 2022 2:52 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1927, Vivax wrote:How is that even relevant?
If I know Ircher is scum and see a counterwagon, my informed perspective will allow me to accuse the members of the counterwagon of trying to deflect off Ircher.
Ah.

I see.

You are saying that he was attacking the Voters at an opportune time, vs attacking the person who is the counter wagon.

It feels like the path of least resistance there would have been to go after someone who is already a wagon, then try to stir up a brand new one on the basis of having a vote parked.
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Post Post #1973 (isolation #139) » Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:34 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1951, Dannflor wrote:@LUKEWARM I want to hear from you about your read that Mastina is "actually always scum here." That feels like unearned confidence on a slot I find to be an extremely difficult read. I read your case on how she interacts with her scum buddies, but it seems to boil down to "she had too confident of a read too early." And I don't really get why that doesn't apply to any of her other reads? Like I feel mastina always puts on an air of bravado with all of her reads and her being right on one doesn't necessarily convince me that she is always scum here and was TMIing.
"Always scum here" is a hyperbole. She was my strongest scum read at the time of making that post (Although, I will say that I think that Titus and her have swapped places since)

I have found that if you don't talk that way, no one takes your reads seriously. In part, when I wrote that, I was in "I am going to leave stuff for later" mode because I was pretty sure that I was getting vig shot tonight, which appears to not be happening anymore. Definitely not tonight anyways. But I really did not want people to be writing off Mastina because of her claim thing, and I was posting under the assumption that I was gonna be gone before that ever resolved. Seemed like the best way to make sure that my suspicions on Mastina carried through past my death.

My issues with Mastina are a few things. I have read three games of scum!Mastain. NQN, Control, and SubReddit. (Played in NQN and Subreddit, spectated Control). In subreddit, Mastina was purposefully playing differently then her usual scum meta.

The way that she interacted with Ircher looked to me, exactly how scum!Mastina interacted with her scum partners FL and Enchant in NQN, and Ceph and Ircher in Control. Like, smacked me in the face as "oh look, the exact way Mastain plays scum."

Furthermore, as Klick pointed out, her opening post also is eeriely similar to her opening post in NQN.
Do you feel like her push on you is particularly disingenuous?
And I have also been scum reading her push on me, just not saying it because the moment you say you scum read someone for that, it feels like the moment people stop taking your read seriously and try to call it OMGUS. Her push on me this game, felt like her push on my in subreddit, where I was her strongest scum read. I have yet to feel that way about the way Mastina has interacted with my slot in any of the games where she was town.

She picked me out on page two as a person she was gonna call scum, and has parked her read there, and has done nothing but double down. Then when pushed by Fire to explain why she is so sure I was scum, the answer ended up being:
-I don't have an "A-HA" and
-My scum case on Titus is full of "mistakes in narrative"

When pushed for a specific mistake in narrative, it was that she thinks Titus is town for reasons presented in
In post 1858, mastina wrote:You literally just said I pointed out why Titus is town. The reasons I pointed out for Titus being town demonstrate the mistakes in Lukewarm's narrative.
Like, this whole circular reasoning on why she claimed to think I am scum, when pressed, landed on She town cased Titus, I still think that Titus is scum, I must be scum. And I am struggling to swallow that those are real thoughts that she is having this game, when her own description of Titus before this was
In post 1221, mastina wrote:Titus is at a similar level of divided read. Her play does not match her meta of being scum with Ircher. She protects her scumbuddies, and makes effort to make sure they don't fall. Her play with Ircher is highly indicative of that not being the case. All of this makes her highly likely to be town. But, a lot of her play feels like her scumgame and there are many things which feel "off" about her. So she's more divided, but also overall more town than not imo.
The uncertainty she presented in her own read of Titus leaves me unable to believe that me scum reading Titus is a Real Genuine corner stone of her scum reading me.
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Post Post #1976 (isolation #140) » Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:52 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1686, mastina wrote:
In post 1650, Vivax wrote:Like...You consider a lot of things at once in parallel, but don‘t really point and shoot. I hope this doesn‘t come across as mischaracterizing, but it‘s what keeps me sus on you.
This is accurate; Lukewarm is missing the "A-HA!!!" factor.

Making the cases he has is not an a-ha! factor; making the cases he has is having predetermined the outcome and writing the evidence to fit that narrative.
In post 1762, mastina wrote:
In post 1758, fireisredsir wrote:but what about that do you think is specific to luke being scum?
Because Luke is thorough and meticulous as town and absolutely methodical. His towngame is well-thought-out and doesn't make the ""mistakes"" in narrative he has made this game.

This is the part that felt the same way

Subject: Mini 2254 | Subreddit uPick | Fin
mastina wrote:
In post 499, The Bombay wrote:I was in a "monkery" with Mastina, and she did not claim to be a mason (or a monk for that matter). To be fair, it makes more sense to not claim it when you are actually in one.
This is a pointless observation. If she fake claims it enough for you to say this, it is moot. I just found it interesting in an NAI kind of way.
~Luke
HURT: The Bombay


To be clear, this is a scumclaim in of itself from Luke. Both in portrayal of that game and in content from Luke. I don't believe this is a town-Lukewarm
Subject: Mini 2254 | Subreddit uPick | Fin
mastina wrote:
In post 533, skitter30 wrote:*why* is that a scumclaim from luke? Why is this not something town-luke would think?
Because it's an incredibly un-Luketown analysis to make, basically.
Just coming in, saying that my methodology is too perfect as town, and not perfect in this game, therefore I am scum. Also, some amorphous difference on top of that. Both points designed to be un-interactable.


And it has been just a bunch of series of back to back things that jump out to me as the same as every scumstina I have seen.
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Post Post #1977 (isolation #141) » Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:56 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

I have strong urges to townbin Dann.

it *feels* like he is either town, or he is writing specifically for me, and I don't think that I am in a position to be catered to lol
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Post Post #1982 (isolation #142) » Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:20 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1979, Dannflor wrote:Do you have experience with her town meta too?
Yeah. Off the top of my head FGO 2 and NQN 1 (she was scum in NQN 2, but town in NQN 1), but pretty sure more then that that I am just not thinking of.
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Post Post #1983 (isolation #143) » Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:21 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1978, Dannflor wrote:I see your points - I think unfortunately the rather stubborn push on you isn't immediately alignment indicative. I think Mastina tends to dig in her heels early and often as either alignment, and it only becomes apparent over time how genuine her stubbornness is.
Definitely not a slot that I'm just not going to reevaluate until D4 or whatever
I will go back and look at those town games I guess
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Post Post #1984 (isolation #144) » Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:37 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

I just read through her Day 1 isos from NQN1, FGO2, and then this game again -- and it feels like a night and day difference to me.

I'll give that game Ausuka linked to me a try, but so far this has just made me more sure she is scum
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Post Post #1985 (isolation #145) » Fri Sep 23, 2022 6:10 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1742, Ausuka wrote:I went back to find this game just for you! I hope I get town points for this.

viewtopic.php?f=54&t=79906

In this game mastina decides in, like, RVS? Basically the start of the game, she decides her order of suspects is exactly Pine -> Lavender -> Ausuka -> ofrhz.
This game has a 5 headed hydra, that is not playing on a hydra account. Just all 5 people on, and posting. They were listed in the vote counts as just... the 5 names as a list, with just 1 vote. Quite possibly the worst thing I have seen.

-----

Anyways lol

I do see that her reads are unchanged throughout that game (and also all 4 of those names were town lol), but it still feels different to me, the way she she talks about those reads.

Like, I did a control f for Pine, then Lavender, then Ausuka in that game. To compare how she talked about Ircher and me and Roden. And it just feels so different. But also, this game is over 3 years old. I feel weird even trying to use it really, because "different" is to be expected. So :shrug:

Maybe my own way of describing it was imprecise. Because it is also the way she is pushing her reads page 1 reads this game, not just that she had page 1 reads.

I am aware that she likes to do her quote a post, say only the word town/scum, then move on early in the game, and that is not really what I was having issue with.
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Post Post #1986 (isolation #146) » Fri Sep 23, 2022 6:13 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

To be fair, the Ausuka game feels like a less Night and Day difference when I read through it.

Almost like a middle ground between the feeling I get reading (this one and her scum games NQN2/Control) and (the town games I have actually played with her FGO2/NQN1)
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Post Post #2023 (isolation #147) » Sat Sep 24, 2022 2:47 am

Post by Lukewarm »

Spoiling to condense.
Spoiler: Me responding to Mastina about Titus.
In post 1998, mastina wrote:My metric is working just fine.

Titus coming up with reasons to push you is not town-indicative.

Titus coming up with that specific theory while drunk is town-indicative.

Titus was fluent in being able to explain her theory and her viewpoint. She was drunk, so her thoughts were broken and fragmented, but the narrative was still explained well enough to get her point across. She explained her theory while heavily not sober and also highly distracted. It was not a preplanned thing.
Was not meticulous while drunk = alignment indicative either way is a silly take ngl

I got the feeling that she came up with the idea that she needed to push me, and then started trying to come up with reasons.

shows that pretty clearly. She started with the idea that she was gonna push me, went looking for evidence saw me as the 3rd vote, started pursuing a line, but then it did not work out .

It felt like she was fishing for reasons to back up a read, NOT explaining a read that she actually had formed in her head when sober. Which is not the town order of operations lol.
In post 2003, mastina wrote:Okay but CHALLENGE:

Find me a scumgame where Titus acted that way.

I'm reasonably sure it doesn't exist.

I'll be the first to admit it looks like scum.

Heck I scumread Titus for all of D1 off of that very reasoning. That Titus's posts were overly cautious, precise, meticulous, etc.

But when it comes down to it, those things are actually more towntells for her than they are scumtells, especially in regards to treatment of scumbuddies.
You are trying to have it both ways. You earlier argued that this whole thing looked like her scum game, EXCEPT for her Ircher interaction.

But now you are also trying to call everything else town too.

I disagree based on my personal experience with Titus, and frankly even if you are town, I'd value Peta's read over yours, which clearly called all of those things squarely in her scum wheel house. Peta was actually so sure that Titus was scum, that he moved off the Ircher wagon and onto Titus.

------

Hard to find the best quote to say this to, so just in general. Mastina, you keep claiming that Titus would not bus while Ircher was savable - she would try to save him, and since she did bus, she therefore must be town.

That argument means literally nothing to me, when my own position is that that Titus looks to me like she was trying to save him, all the way up til he hit E-1 and more people were voicing willingness to vote there.

Like, if this is the "new information" that I am not updating to, I read it, I disagreed with your description of the game state when she made her posts, I disregarded it.

In post 2007, mastina wrote:
In post 1977, Lukewarm wrote:it *feels* like he is either town, or he is writing specifically for me, and I don't think that I am in a position to be catered to lol
Why not?

You are not an elimination candidate today, but are a candidate for future days.

You are a strong pusher of a mislim on Titus. In fact are the main pusher there.

You are the perfect person to cater to because it's zero risk high reward. Dannflor loses nothing by catering to you. He gains a more scum-controlled/favored gamestate almost no matter what.
Because it feels like I have little thread control. Despite being here, and fairly loud about about my reads on them, my town read Roden is the biggest wagon and my scum read Titus's wagon just won't get rolling.

It sure does feel like I am opening this up every day to shout "Don't kill this person, I think they are town. Kill this person, I think they are scum" and the rest of the game thread is trucking along
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Post Post #2025 (isolation #148) » Sat Sep 24, 2022 3:04 am

Post by Lukewarm »

Vivax
furtiveglance
Dannflor

fireisredsir
Ausuka
Roden
Andresvmb

Ydrasse



Uncrowned
jjh927
PenguinPower
Malakittens
Klick
Something_Smart



mastina

Titus


I was almost tempted to move Mastina above the line, because I have had some second thoughts about her. Still I'm also still leaning scum, but less *sure*, so landed on just putting a gap between her and Titus.

I also don't have 3 scum leans/reads anymore, which means I will actually have to tackle the blob of unsorted in the middle at some point.
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Post Post #2026 (isolation #149) » Sat Sep 24, 2022 3:04 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 2024, Titus wrote:The thread is just trucking along because you won't listen Lukewarm. You aren't addressing anyone else's concerns. You seem to think by yelling an opinion several town think is wrong is helpful.

If you're town, you give scum a place to stall out the game. They don't have to contribute or don't want to because Roden's scum. My wagon is sketch enough as it is. You'd see that if you weren't overjoyed to have just anyone with you.

If you're scum, you're clawing to protect Roden anyway so *shrug*.
Titus this is literally me and my town reads lmao
In post 2013, Datisi wrote:Titus [4]: Roden, Lukewarm, Ausuka, Dannflor
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Post Post #2029 (isolation #150) » Sat Sep 24, 2022 3:08 am

Post by Lukewarm »

Even looking back at who has voted you before during this day
In post 1250, Datisi wrote:Titus [3]: Roden, fireisredsir, Lukewarm
In post 1751, Datisi wrote:Titus [4]: Roden, Lukewarm, Vivax, Ausuka
Me, Dann, Roden, Ausuka, Fire, and Vivax. All in my town pile.

Even looking back to Day 1 VCs
In post 930, Datisi wrote:Titus [3]: petapan, Malakittens, fireisredsir
It just adds Peta and Mala.

So, my town reads, a flipped townie, and Mala
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Post Post #2030 (isolation #151) » Sat Sep 24, 2022 3:10 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 2027, Titus wrote:Yes, because your townreads are whomever agrees with you. Your reads are circular.
Them scum reading you has not been a factor in my reads what so ever.

You just made that up to discredit
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Post Post #2033 (isolation #152) » Sat Sep 24, 2022 3:17 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 2027, Titus wrote:Yes, because your townreads are whomever agrees with you. Your reads are circular.
Like, this is *maybe* something you could say about my Dann read. Reading his posts felt like I was largely reading my own thoughts, but also not on everything so it did not look like he was actually doing that, so I think he is town on the mindmeld kinda level .

But Vivax is mechanically town.

Ausuka I thought was town while she was actively in the middle of pushing Roden
In post 1294, Lukewarm wrote:For what its worth Roden, I feel like the way that Ausuka has been questioning you looks townie, even if she is wrong.
Roden I have town cased a fair bit, and not once did your name come up.

Fire has been based on Vibes and Tone in comparison to the scum game I played against him, where I felt like he was... getting under my skin not the right expression, but something like that. His posts felt manipulative, and like he was trying to rile me up in that game.
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Post Post #2035 (isolation #153) » Sat Sep 24, 2022 3:21 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 2032, Ausuka wrote:
In post 1786, Lukewarm wrote:It seems likely that the scum team, seeing Vivax making it very clear that he intends to shoot me, is just gonna sit by and let that happen. It keeps Vivax's vig shot from being a danger to them.

So, I think that makes Fire and Andres very likely to be town for their recent posts made directly to vivax, about me.
This logic confuses me a bit - usually I see different scum members take different positions in the thread, and defend town pretty often, even if it isn't directly in their interest to do so. So like I do not see why you think defending you from a vig shot makes these people town and it feels maybe pockety?
I would agree wrt to day play and votes. Scum team has a fairly large imput in wagons.

But less so with a Vig.

I would not be surprised to find scum in the people who have called me town. But it was calling me town, directly at the vig, with reasons. Appearing to actively be trying to sway the Vig off of shooting a townie, and then he becomes a potential thread to the scum team again
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Post Post #2036 (isolation #154) » Sat Sep 24, 2022 3:22 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 2034, Titus wrote:
In post 2033, Lukewarm wrote:But Vivax is mechanically town.
If Vivax is mechanically town, why did you push for so long
after the claim
?
Because I did not realize that the mechanics made him town until jjh pointed it out to me?
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Post Post #2039 (isolation #155) » Sat Sep 24, 2022 3:28 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 2036, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 2034, Titus wrote:
In post 2033, Lukewarm wrote:But Vivax is mechanically town.
If Vivax is mechanically town, why did you push for so long
after the claim
?
Because I did not realize that the mechanics made him town until jjh pointed it out to me?
Like I was REALLY sure that he was scum over night. Like way more sure then I am with you or Mastina.

He then got a bunch of votes, and then claimed Vig. In the moment, it looked like a panic claim. And when I broadly thought about the mechanics, it seemed like this is the perfect set up to fake a vig claim.

To actually get to him being mechanically town, you have to stop and think about the more specific details of the numbers. And not just the % points needed to direct the kills, but also the % points needed by the flipped townies. And while I saw those numbers when I looked at the flips, I did not do any of the mental math on what that would mean for the over all % points.
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Post Post #2044 (isolation #156) » Sat Sep 24, 2022 3:37 am

Post by Lukewarm »

I have lots of thoughts.

Vivax likely town, even if he rescinds. But also, would not be surprised if the rescinding is fake.

I do want to know, because that changes the mental math on Mastina's claim as well. Thinking Vivax was running close to 0% productivity gave room for hers to be fake. Him not doing that would actually make mastina more likely to be town then before.
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Post Post #2045 (isolation #157) » Sat Sep 24, 2022 3:38 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 2042, Titus wrote:Or you just realized you'd never get a claimed vig flipped with a shot on BBT claimed.

A vig claim isn't mech town. It just likely is.
It wasn't the claim that I thought was clearing him. See me still thinking he was scum post claim.

It was the MATH needed for scum to get to 3 kills, in reference to 2 of the 3 flipped PRs only needing 30% to fire.
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Post Post #2049 (isolation #158) » Sat Sep 24, 2022 4:10 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 2046, Vivax wrote:I'd endorse it if players gave Luke more thread pull
I am so confused
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Post Post #2055 (isolation #159) » Sat Sep 24, 2022 4:30 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 2052, Andresvmb wrote:Instead, I’m going to have to make a deep dive and actually decide for myself whether the vote makes sense. And if it does, I won’t move
This feels like you are saying that you currently have not done this, and don't know if you want the roden elim.

Yet your vote is on him while he is at E-1.

Seems like you're running short on time to make that evaluation
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Post Post #2088 (isolation #160) » Sat Sep 24, 2022 6:28 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 2058, Ausuka wrote:Hmm, I mean, it's possible that I'm onto literally nothing here. I think it'd help if you tell me how you think scum in general tend to think about the game and their partners in particular? It doesn't have to be too long.
I am not 100% sure what you are asking, because "how scum think about the game" Is not something that you can really answer with an answer that is not too long. When I am scum, my thoughts on the game state are constantly shifting, so hard to define. I don't think how scum act "in general" is super useful metric, because individual situations call for individual responses - Also shifts away from how different people play scum. For example, I don't think I have the guts to put all 3 of my scum partners right in a row in the bottom of my scum reads (or town reads for that matter), but I have seen multiple other people do exactly that (Mastina and Not Known 15 off the top of my head)

Spoiler: Most basic goals being
Blending in. A Large portion of your energy goes to just, looking like you would look if you were town.

Identifying threats - those are the night kill targets.

Identifying the Mislim pool - hoping they get eliminated with out you looking like scum on their flip. So your arguments have to be reasonable, and you probably want to be the 2nd or 3rd loudest voice calling for their head, not the first person people think of when the flip comes back town.

Making yourself look not partnered with your partners, and to look partnered with townies.

----

You asked for partners in particular, and like I said the end goal is to not looked partnered and purposefully treating each partner differently such that on one flip, it does not make the other obvious.

Planting your selves loudly on opposite ends of arguments is decent for this. In my last scum game, I was one of the loudest voices in favor of mass claim, and my partner was one of the loudest voices against mass claim. The idea being to look like they were a part of a scum team afraid of being outed in a mass claim, and I was a part of a scum team that thought they needed the PRs outed. So if one of us flipped, the other would appear to not make sense in the same scum team.

----

All of that is unrelated to my point. Because I am talking about how scum would interact with a Town vig tunneled on a Townie. Like that is the dream scenario for scum wrt to a vig. I don't think that scum go out of their way to mess that up.

(I am aware that this appears to have already happened, but in reference to when the posts were made) The moment the vig comes out of that tunnel is the moment he becomes a threat to the scum team again.
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Post Post #2089 (isolation #161) » Sat Sep 24, 2022 6:33 am

Post by Lukewarm »

If you guys kill Roden, and he flips town, I will be insufferable until we kill Titus. just so you know.

If you kill Roden and he flips scum, I will be sufficiently shamed. All shame upon me, yada yada

OR, we just skip that step and kill titus now!
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Post Post #2092 (isolation #162) » Sat Sep 24, 2022 6:48 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 2090, Klick wrote:Luke can you tell me why Roden's town or otherwise point me to where you already said why Roden's town
I have mentioned a few times that I felt like his interaction with Ausuka reeked of tvt to me.

I also feel like the level of obstinance Roden had with claiming his role is more likely to be town then scum.

I think that the most succinct reason is probably this:
In post 1559, Roden wrote:0%

Now town lock me
Even if we make the leap to say that no member of the scum team realized that a fake claim should probably have growing percentage costs, I just don't think that there is a world where scum!Roden, who is able to say what ever the hell he wants about his fake claimed role, says that the modifier costs 0%.

Like, it would have been so *easy* to just say that it is 5%. 5% no modifier, 10% with it. Small, easily palatable numbers.

Given the context of his earlier posts, in what world does scum!Roden think that this answer is going to do anything but hurt him? Like this is an actively self sabotaging answer when scum can give any answer they want

I just think that the much more plausible answer is that that is just the truth.
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Post Post #2097 (isolation #163) » Sat Sep 24, 2022 7:01 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 2094, Titus wrote:
In post 2092, Lukewarm wrote:Given the context of his earlier posts, in what world does scum!Roden think that this answer is going to do anything but hurt him? Like this is an actively self sabotaging answer when scum can give any answer they want
Wifom. Fake posts are posted.
Just shouting wifom is a cop out. Scum can do literally anything, the point is which is more likely.

I just don't think it is very likely at all, that given the situation that he was in, he would take that avenue as scum. And therefore, it being the truth is the more likely reality we live in.
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Post Post #2098 (isolation #164) » Sat Sep 24, 2022 7:03 am

Post by Lukewarm »

Like, is it *possible* scum could do something, the answer is always yes. Scum can do literally anything.

But that is not the game we play.

Its is it more *likely* that it came from scum or town.
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Post Post #2101 (isolation #165) » Sat Sep 24, 2022 7:07 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 2094, Titus wrote:
In post 2092, Lukewarm wrote:Given the context of his earlier posts, in what world does scum!Roden think that this answer is going to do anything but hurt him? Like this is an actively self sabotaging answer when scum can give any answer they want
Wifom. Fake posts are posted.
Hey Titus, can you write a post saying why you believe Roden is scum? Or point me to one?
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Post Post #2102 (isolation #166) » Sat Sep 24, 2022 7:27 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 2099, Titus wrote:
In post 2097, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 2094, Titus wrote:
In post 2092, Lukewarm wrote:Given the context of his earlier posts, in what world does scum!Roden think that this answer is going to do anything but hurt him? Like this is an actively self sabotaging answer when scum can give any answer they want
Wifom. Fake posts are posted.
Just shouting wifom is a cop out. Scum can do literally anything, the point is which is more likely.

I just don't think it is very likely at all, that given the situation that he was in, he would take that avenue as scum. And therefore, it being the truth is the more likely reality we live in.
You don't think it's likely at all, because that fits your worldview.
1) This feels like you are talking to someone you think is town.

but

2) Its simply not true. You are trying to act like I have not outlined my reasons for thinking he is town. They are right there for you to look at.

The reasons to think that he is scum, as I remember them, seemed largely to do with ~Vibes~ from Mastina, and then people not buying his claim, and then people not liking him being obstinante. .

I buy his claim, I don't see the off vibes, and I don't think him being obstinate is scum-indicative .

You are also willfully ignoring the fact that I also started to think he could be scum, and said as much, then when I thought on it more, my mental math of how likely he is town to scum settled on town.
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Post Post #2103 (isolation #167) » Sat Sep 24, 2022 7:28 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 2102, Lukewarm wrote:I buy his claim,

For anyone who is interested, I think that a role like the one Roden has claimed is almost guaranteed to be in this game.

Compare Peta's role to the standard Wiki description
Each Night, you may
target a player. Assuming no interference with your action, you will learn whether or not that player is able to privately communicate with another living player (you cannot distinguish between a player who is alone in a private topic, and a player who does not have private topic access at all).
during the night,
target a player. assuming no interference with your action, you will learn whether or not that player is able to privately communicate with
at least one
another living player,
via private topics or otherwise.
you cannot distinguish between a player who is alone in a private topic, and a player who does not have private topic access at all.
It is very clear that Datisi copy and pasted the role from the wiki, and then made slight modifications. He purposefully made it extra clear that it included communication methods beyond PTs. That seems to Roden's role.

I also feel like it is good design to make peta's traffic analyst have a false guilty, so that it is not just a cop.
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Post Post #2126 (isolation #168) » Sat Sep 24, 2022 9:54 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 2110, Ydrasse wrote:mafia can have like 5000 kills a night regardless so you have to temper that amount of potential kp into something and i think being able to provide reasonable false positives and establish ways of pocketing/getting info/etc works well for the type of game the flips have presented to us so far
I do not believe that his claim makes him town.

I was showing why it is likely that he is true claiming. It is the reason why Peta's role pm had to be altered from the standard.

It was in response to Titus's
In post 2099, Titus wrote:maybe the whole role is a fiction
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Post Post #2127 (isolation #169) » Sat Sep 24, 2022 10:02 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 2094, Titus wrote:
In post 2092, Lukewarm wrote:Given the context of his earlier posts, in what world does scum!Roden think that this answer is going to do anything but hurt him? Like this is an actively self sabotaging answer when scum can give any answer they want
Wifom. Fake posts are posted.
In post 2099, Titus wrote:
In post 2097, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 2094, Titus wrote:
In post 2092, Lukewarm wrote:Given the context of his earlier posts, in what world does scum!Roden think that this answer is going to do anything but hurt him? Like this is an actively self sabotaging answer when scum can give any answer they want
Wifom. Fake posts are posted.
Just shouting wifom is a cop out. Scum can do literally anything, the point is which is more likely.

I just don't think it is very likely at all, that given the situation that he was in, he would take that avenue as scum. And therefore, it being the truth is the more likely reality we live in.
You don't think it's likely at all, because that fits your worldview.

Scum players and scum teams can and do have widely varying reactions. Maybe it's dead in water, maybe it's as little info as possible, maybe the amount wouldn't make sense, maybe the whole role is a fiction, maybe he's scum truth telling

Maybe Roden is town lying
Maybe he's telling the truth and is town

Whatever he said serves his purposes. As far as I know, there's no mech for any of it.

Arguing why that claim in particular supposes things that can't be known (if town).

I feel like this is a pretty scummy series of post on its own btw.

It take no stances, and makes no arguments. She just popped in to stir paranoia on any presented reason to town read Roden, without actually engaging with the reasons or talking about the reasons she believes him to be scum.

Like, it is just "oooohhhhh wifom scary" and "all things are unknowable"

She is not talking about Roden, she is talking in generalities, with the final conclusion being: so you can't make town reads.
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Post Post #2130 (isolation #170) » Sat Sep 24, 2022 10:07 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 2109, Ydrasse wrote:everyone point and laugh at the alt slipper
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Post Post #2139 (isolation #171) » Sat Sep 24, 2022 1:07 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 2132, mastina wrote:
In post 2023, Lukewarm wrote:Peta was actually so sure that Titus was scum, that he moved off the Ircher wagon and onto Titus.
I sincerely doubt that peta's read was as strong as you are implying it was. In fact, I'm reading petapan's iso from the bottom. There's only one mention of Titus (which is explicitly referring to pre-439 content) after this:
In post 439, petapan wrote:while most of my reads are weak vibes
So every suspicion peta had on Titus was BEFORE this post, and thus, per petapan, explicitly "weak vibes".

Did petapan state suspicion on Titus? Yes. But you are presenting the false narrative that his scumread there was strong. It is quite likely petapan's scumread was in fact quite weak.
Mastina, this simply is not true.

Peta consistently called Titus scum. Like if you search his iso for titus, here is every post

Spoiler:
In post 238, petapan wrote:
In post 223, Uncrowned wrote:titus is definitely on the verge of joining best doggos alongside myself and RC
disagree
In post 334, petapan wrote:VOTE: Titus
In post 356, petapan wrote:
In post 354, Lukewarm wrote:On an unrelated note, I declare Titus and klick as Town Enough For Day 1 after reading 141.
*blinking*
In post 361, petapan wrote:good vibes:

penguinpower
furtiveglance
lukewarm
uncrowned
something_smart
ydrasse
malakittens
nero cain (for dumb reasons)
rce
fireisredsir
klick

no vibes:

bbt
andres
jjh
ircher
mastina
roden

(historically terrible at reading the last two so don't know if i will have a good idea anytime soon


bad vibes:

vivax
ausuka
titus

(latter two stronger than the former where i may not have a grasp of playstyle)
In post 362, petapan wrote:
In post 359, RCEnigma wrote:From the last 4ish pages, Titus +Town and PP +town. Everyone choosing to engage and re-engage the 4 scum/5 scum discussion tanking. Also hate the Titus vote timings. (As in the votes on Titus not the slot of Titus voting.)
i think titus is howling about as hard as someone can for less than 24 hours into day 1 but you do you
In post 371, petapan wrote:
In post 369, Ydrasse wrote:titus calling me town from vca IS pretty weird
someone will leap to titus's defense sayin she's weird as town which is generally true but kind of evades the task of actually evaluating her

i just don't buy a post like
In post 379, petapan wrote:
In post 374, furtiveglance wrote:I like that Titus calls some posts town straight up, it's town indicative I think.
the reasoning being deployed in the early game here is w i l d
In post 438, petapan wrote:
In post 385, Uncrowned wrote:
In post 371, petapan wrote:i just don't buy a post like 221
go on
she's trying to set up two players as containing scum between them for highly suspect reasons, which is a maneuver i've seen her use before as scum. it doesn't really make a lot of sense that the supposed "slip" gets brought up to save s_s from pressure because it's not like could plan on ircher making a post like that and pushing it strategically so it's kind of ridiculous. but she's also been calling ircher frozen lock scum so if she thinks he's scum why should that possibly mean anything for s_s?

and i get that feeling with most of titus's posts, just "i don't believe this is real"


(i also think s_s is probably the townies he can get for day 1 of a game. i know that kind of contradicts a post i made earlier and i don't care)
In post 392, Vivax wrote:How I draw lines is the subject of many questions, but having a semi-eidetic memory helps.

VOTE: petapan

For weird flails and misjudging vibes and cause by now Ircher seems too obvious to be scum.
lol

where am i flailing
In post 449, petapan wrote:
In post 442, Uncrowned wrote:
In post 438, petapan wrote:it doesn't really make a lot of sense that the supposed "slip" gets brought up to save s_s from pressure because it's not like could plan on ircher making a post like that and pushing it strategically so it's kind of ridiculous
I understand your point here but the post was made and made very early into the game at that so couldn't it still be used? or am i missing something?
i mean just the idea that it was being brought up strategically to take pressure off a buddy, i really don't buy that being a thing someone (even titus) actually thinks about. stuff like that almost always gets found organically.


anyway don't want to spam so likely stepping back for a bit again. trying to limit my own output for the early game at least
Uncrowned wrote:who has experience playing with Mr vivax
i mean technically i have one game on MU but it was a large novelty game so not applicable to this one in a useful way


-He showed up to fuss at uncrowned for calling Titus town

-He moved off Ircher and on to Titus

-He showed up to fuss at me for calling Titus town.

-He put Titus at the very bottom of his reads list

-"i think titus is howling about as hard as someone can for less than 24 hours into day 1 but you do you"

-Doubled down
-Doubled down
-Doubled down
-Doubled down.

It was incredibly consistent
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Post Post #2140 (isolation #172) » Sat Sep 24, 2022 1:08 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 2132, mastina wrote:For someone who claims to have taken a look at peta's reads, you sure seem to have glossed over that peta's reads were not nearly as strong as you are implying they were!

(This is not all I am going to be quoting for the Lukewarm post but this part felt like it was important enough to stand out: Lukewarm claims to have read petapan's iso but is lying about petapan's strength of read on Titus.
Like, its right there in the ISO, and everyone is welcome to read what Peta had to say about Titus. I even grabbed all of the relevant quotes.
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Post Post #2144 (isolation #173) » Sat Sep 24, 2022 1:17 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 2134, mastina wrote:
In post 2039, Lukewarm wrote:To actually get to him being mechanically town, you have to stop and think about the more specific details of the numbers. And not just the % points needed to direct the kills, but also the % points needed by the flipped townies. And while I saw those numbers when I looked at the flips, I did not do any of the mental math on what that would mean for the over all % points.
Okay Lukewarm, question:
What made you do the numbers with Ircher, but not do the numbers for Vivax?
I don't actually think that there is much similar between the two situations other then the fact that you get to use the word "numbers" when talking about them lol.

In order to spot the Vivax thing, you have to look at 3 different numbers in the role flips, use those numbers to estimate the average town numbers, then work out the expected average to see if seem plausible for us to have gotten below 50%.

Like you actually have to stop and do math here.

that is a very different thing then seeing someone say this
In post 19, Ircher wrote:As long as we achieve 1,275 points out of 1,700 points each day, we will be fine. If mastina is setting hers to 0%, then we need to average 80 points per player to avoid the extra night kills.
And then thinking, "huh, where did those numbers come from?"
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Post Post #2147 (isolation #174) » Sat Sep 24, 2022 1:23 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 2135, furtiveglance wrote:Mastina I'm also here.
Thoughts about TA needing a false guilty and Roden's role fitting the bill?
(Sorry if you already covered this, mostly skimming your posts)

Also, Titus drunk posting was definitely not insightful or solvey (can't remember the word you used)
btw furtive, that was not my point.

we have already had a role flip to cause false guilties.

Spoiler:
My point was about the addition of the red words.
In post 2103, Lukewarm wrote: Compare Peta's role to the standard Wiki description
Each Night, you may
target a player. Assuming no interference with your action, you will learn whether or not that player is able to privately communicate with another living player (you cannot distinguish between a player who is alone in a private topic, and a player who does not have private topic access at all).
during the night,
target a player. assuming no interference with your action, you will learn whether or not that player is able to privately communicate with
at least one
another living player,
via private topics or otherwise.
you cannot distinguish between a player who is alone in a private topic, and a player who does not have private topic access at all.
I am saying that he added them because Roden's ability exists, and he wanted to make it very clear that that would come up as a guilty, even though it was not a PT.
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Post Post #2148 (isolation #175) » Sat Sep 24, 2022 1:25 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 2146, jjh927 wrote:I find speculating about specific reads from dead people being why they were killed to be incredibly unscientific and really not worth time at all
That is not what that conversation was about, but okay.
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Post Post #2153 (isolation #176) » Sat Sep 24, 2022 1:40 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 2150, jjh927 wrote:Are you just trying to sheep the dead for independent reasons then?
It was not even a conversation about sheeping Peta.

The recent stuff was Mastina trying to call me a liar, and me responding.

Spoiler:
In post 2023, Lukewarm wrote:But now you are also trying to call everything else town too.

I disagree based on my personal experience with Titus, and frankly even if you are town, I'd value Peta's read over yours, which clearly called all of those things squarely in her scum wheel house. Peta was actually so sure that Titus was scum, that he moved off the Ircher wagon and onto Titus.
I was saying that Mastina acting like every thing Titus has ever done this game radiates townieness is ridiculous. And her acting like her town case should have completely rocked my perception of Titus is dumb.

I have my own read of Titus's play. It does not match hers. I have read her town case, and disagree. And some of the very things that she is calling townie from Titus, Peta said looked like scum Titus. So why would I ever take her word for that over my own perception or the perception of confirmed town Peta.

She responded to say that I am a dirty liar, and that Peta did not actually scum read Titus that hard.

And I was also saying that that was kinda silly, because Peta's read is literally right there for anyone to read.

I was not arguing for anyone to sheep him actually, more to say that her stance that it would be impossible for me, as town, to think that Titus is scum here is
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Post Post #2154 (isolation #177) » Sat Sep 24, 2022 1:41 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

Is roden still at E-1?
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Post Post #2155 (isolation #178) » Sat Sep 24, 2022 1:42 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

he is not.
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Post Post #2156 (isolation #179) » Sat Sep 24, 2022 1:46 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

I am getting annoyed at the day, and I get impulsive when annoyed.

Was considering just hammering to end it, and move on to the insufferable stage (me tomorrow after a town roden flip)

But apparently not.
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Post Post #2178 (isolation #180) » Sat Sep 24, 2022 4:08 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

Mastina...

I think that Titus was Peta strongest day 1 scum read. This is very evident in his iso. That is enough for me to give it more credence then what you have to say about Titus during the same time frame -- even if I thought you were town, not to say anything about you, but I value peta's reads higher then most players on this site.

That is the point I was making. It was in response to your series of posts which claimed that I, if town, would have changed my read on Titus in the face of your Titus town case, and I was calling that ridiculous.

-

I don't actually care to convince you or any one else how strong or weak Peta's read on Titus was -- which is what it seems like you are trying to turn this into.

Because I don't care if you think that Peta's read was strong enough
for you
to care about it.

It was strong enough
for me
to care about it

Certainly more then I care about yours.
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Post Post #2182 (isolation #181) » Sat Sep 24, 2022 4:32 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

Vivax you confuse me, but I guess I'll take the voice of endorsement lol

Did you go read other games of mine or something?
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Post Post #2194 (isolation #182) » Sun Sep 25, 2022 12:37 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1900, Ydrasse wrote:
In post 1899, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 1723, Ydrasse wrote:idle thought if roden flips town there’s mafia in the people who doubled down on him after he was being stubborn as an acceptable reason to kill him
In post 1893, Ydrasse wrote:titus valiantly trying to defy the drunkposting = town theory
[img]data:image/png;base64,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[/img]

Hey Ydra, is there a reason you are still on the Roden wagon?
I read like half a page of this game a day but i was probably going to move to titus Soon
In post 2193, Malakittens wrote:I’m ok with yeeting Titus.
There will never be a day where I’m never not yeetong Titus
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Post Post #2195 (isolation #183) » Sun Sep 25, 2022 12:45 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1867, Klick wrote:I think the scumteam is trying to feel out if they can get mastina eliminated today because they feel trapped by her influence and accurate perception of the game
If this is a thought you had, why are you not naming names, and adjusting your reads according?

It feels weird to see this, and then when you do your reads to see:
In post 2079, Klick wrote:
Vivax
In post 2083, Klick wrote: It's probably worth mentioning that I think Luke/Ydrasse/mastina are all rather unlikely scum
I can see niche cases where they're scum and there's a decent chance one of these reads is inaccurate
But they're all fairly towny
If you don't think vivax is scum, and you don't think I am scum, what makes you think the mastina stuff is scum motivated?

And if you think the mastina stuff is scum motivated, who is the scum doing this and where?
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Post Post #2212 (isolation #184) » Sun Sep 25, 2022 8:26 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 2210, Vivax wrote:This game must be insanely frustrating for scum. Looking at the wagons I could even see Fire/Dann/Roden team atm, or at least the votes look that way to me.
So why are you fighting a roden elim??
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Post Post #2230 (isolation #185) » Sun Sep 25, 2022 3:20 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 2149, mastina wrote:If Roden is Town, why have there been so many attempted counterwagons to him?

Vivax was a counterwagon shut down ONLY by Vivax's vig claim. He got like five votes prior to it.
Something_Smart was a counterwagon.
Titus was a counterwagon.
I'm looking back at who voted for who to look at this idea. And first off.
Vivax was a counterwagon shut down ONLY by Vivax's vig claim. He got like five votes prior to it.
The claim that Vivax was a counter wagon to Roden is a simply not true.


A timelineLukewarm votes Vivax 1023 {1}
Ydra votes Vivax -1029 {2}
Furtive votes Vivax in 1041 {3}
Andres votes Vivax in 1051 {4}

Mastina Votes Roden in 1067 {1}

Vivax claims Vig in 1078


Vivax was never a counter wagon to Roden, because the Vivax wagon happened first

(lets all point at mastina and call her a liar now /s)


----

Gonna look at SS and Titus votes next
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Post Post #2231 (isolation #186) » Sun Sep 25, 2022 3:43 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

Feel free to skip.

More for my own reference, but this is every vote on Titus, Roden, and SS this day phase in order.

Spoiler:
In post 1067, mastina wrote:
In post 1042, Roden wrote:
In post 1037, furtiveglance wrote:
In post 1036, Roden wrote:Wow, that's really annoying. I targeted Peta last night.
Pray continue....
I'm a Mailman with a modifier. I sent him a message asking for advice on how to effectively play my role, and let him know I chose him since I believed he would be the most likely person to give solid advice regardless of his own alignment or his read on me.
Btw there's actually TWO reasons for why I think that this is a scumclaim from Roden, maybe 3.
jjh can probably get 1-2 of them, small outside chance of all 3.

But,
VOTE: Roden

Roden is effectively confscum with that claim.
In post 1076, fireisredsir wrote:VOTE: titus
In post 1123, Andresvmb wrote:
In post 1117, mastina wrote:
In post 1070, Andresvmb wrote:Lukewarm is really the player that asked the important blow up question first so unless that was planned (not likely) I wouldn’t vote there either.
Have you heard about the idea that scum see their scumbuddies slip in situations that the town wouldn't?

And how every time, the scum insist that they would've seen it as town, when actually, no, they wouldn't have?

Lukewarm is the MOST suspicious, not the least.
I think I understand where you’re coming from with that actually.

Look my view of the game just got blown up. The two Town that died yesterday I was positive on, particularly Nero Cain, and I do agree that BlueBloodedToffee is a very reasonable Vig shot, which means I need to clear Vivax in my head for now and abandon my view entirely. That also means that I need to listen to those that may have a better grasp of what’s going on while I recalibrate.

I’ll vote Roden for now.

VOTE: Roden
In post 1132, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 1126, Vivax wrote:You just made three strawmans you could answer yourself.

The sentence: 'I don't think anything about the BBT kill' would have achieved the purpose of communicating that.

And why is it relevant if you thought I was scummy before? So did a bunch of others.
I was confused by the question. "That would mean you don't find the BBT kill weird enough to believe he was vigged. But then, why don't you agree with suspecting those who did if you are town?"

"That would mean [something that I never said or thought]" Like you made up something I thought, and then tried to use that as a gatcha question on me.

Your example sentence does not even accurately portray my thoughts, because on the flip my first thought about BBT was that his kill was odd given the scum reads on him. My second thought was that the scum team must have guessed he was a PR based on his lurking.

So, I did not think it odd that other people came to the conclusion that it could be a vig kill. It is just a different conclusion from the same thought about the kill.

-----
This reads like you are pre-empting backing off the read, but you missed that train...
As I was typing it, was I thinking about
In post 1109, jjh927 wrote:I highly doubt productivity dropped below 50% simply because of how averages are gonna work here
Because, I had not actually thought about the productivity levels until I read it. I was more focused on the fact that we had no way to know if there even was a vig in this game, because the mechanics of the game gives scum an unknown number of kills. Which also makes this a game where scum could totally fake claim vig. And it also would make sense for you in particular to fake claim it since you got several votes right off the bat start of the day.

But, then I saw the jjh post. And
In post 1005, Datisi wrote:jailkeeper + 1 day neighbourizer [cost: 30%
In post 1005, Datisi wrote:doctor [cost: 30%;
Actually looking at the productivity levels needed to power the PRs, I think that he might be right.

So thats fun. Seems the most likely out come for me this game now is that I am getting Vig shot tonight

VOTE: Titus
In post 1210, Klick wrote:
furtiveglance
Vivax
fireisredsir
Lukewarm
Malakittens
PenguinPower
Ausuka
Andresvmb
Uncrowned


Ydrasse
jjh927
Titus
mastina
Roden

RCEnigma
Something_Smart



Merged the two middle sections, I think this better represents my current thoughts

VOTE: Something_Smart
I think he's been consistently scummy and isn't quite sure what to do in the current gamestate other than possibly eatch town implode
In post 1229, Klick wrote:VOTE: Roden
In post 1237, Ausuka wrote:VOTE: Roden

I think this is also a good wagon and would like to see a full claim here
In post 1238, Uncrowned wrote:yeah this is good

VOTE: Roden

mastina's reads look solid
In post 1259, furtiveglance wrote:
In post 1024, Something_Smart wrote:I was gonna vote peta though so I guess I can't be that mad.
This is sus

VOTE: Something_Smart
In post 1315, Malakittens wrote:VOTE: roden

Sheep Mastina.


Mastina has solid reads and from my past games with her this feels more like town-Stina rather than scum-her! The reasons she elaborated on doesn’t feel made up or fluffy so hence why she’s solid town for me.

I do believe vivax so not touching there with a 10 foot pole.

I will have more later but I’m at work and kinda skimmed.
In post 1337, PenguinPower wrote:oop - i borked my s_s vote

VOTE: s_s

there we go

everything is right with the world now
In post 1340, Titus wrote:VOTE: SS

Will consider a Roden vote upon review as that's a strong mastina read.
In post 1342, Uncrowned wrote:VOTE: Something_Smart
In post 1343, Vivax wrote:
In post 1337, PenguinPower wrote:oop - i borked my s_s vote

VOTE: s_s

there we go

everything is right with the world now
Can you explain what this vote of yours is attempting to communicate?
I heavily oppose a SS lim

VOTE: something_smart
In post 1369, Ydrasse wrote:VOTE: roden

im like entirely checked out but i think this wagon looks Ok idk what roden's done this game
In post 1527, Vivax wrote:
In post 1526, furtiveglance wrote:
In post 1525, Vivax wrote:So how was your day? I was chasing two dogs of a friend who ran off through a swathe of forest and shouted around for them like a madman, before I got called and told they were right back at the starting point: The car.
Feels almost like this game.
I was volunteering in a cafe today. That's also like this game.
I saw a small deer at a stream, got handed 5 big chanterelles even though they were out of season. Was afraid the dogs found something to chase and jumped off a cliff or something.
But it feels good to know I can go back to focus on my slides and books now that the game is in the bag because we're in hardbus meta.
Kinda bummered the epidemiology guy died in the middle of the semester last year, maybe he didn't listen to the risk assessment I submitted.

VOTE: Roden

L-2

I may or may not be able to shoot again, if you want me to shoot, give suggestions. No promises, a roleblocker is likely.
In post 1662, Vivax wrote:
In post 1327, Titus wrote:So in simple terms, you're saying mastina has been scummy?
In post 1325, Titus wrote:Mastina is highly unlikely to be scum.
In post 141, Titus wrote:
In post 91, Klick wrote:Subject: Not Quite Normal Multiball II (Game Over)
In post 423, mastina wrote:Yo, very important to note:
I am a Beloved Princess
.

No, seriously; no joke; this is a realclaim. (I can fullclaim the wording use, but I've reason not to.)

Obviously, this needs to be said since eliminating me during the day is a Very Bad Idea. (I'll need to ask a question to the mod about Vigs tho.)

I may or may not be feeling like playing tonight but it'll either be shortly or not until tomorrow-at-earliest.
VOTE: mastina
Town
On phone and posts unsorted, but I‘ll just join this wagon after finding this noteworthy on an ISO of Titus.
But yeah announced superscumkiller mastina didn‘t quite die before Peta and Nero.

Guess if I consider Luke town despite my pathological paranoia, I should take another look at maybe Uncrowned.
Since Luke is kinda leading the lim on Titus

VOTE: Titus
In post 1745, Ausuka wrote:VOTE: Titus

I like this wagon, and have explained why I'm sus of her

I don't really agree with the idea (mostly proposed by Titus I think to be fair) that scum wouldn't bus Ircher here - it seems like Ircher was mostly going antispew from the start and probably TMId that only four scum exist in this game. There's no point in trying to save a buddy if they don't want to be saved and the situation looks bad for them - a scum flip d1 with no associatives tends not to be the worst thing in the world for a maf team and I think most teams are bus happy - like, I fully believe that Titus is not fond of bussing compared to the average player, but in this situation where Ircher is dead in the water, maybe even wants to be bussed, and the rest of the team probably wants to bus him - would anyone not be willing to bus in that situation, regardless of their meta?
In post 1769, Titus wrote:VOTE: Roden

Check in tmo when sober xD
In post 1794, Vivax wrote:VOTE: Titus

Fine, gonna flipflop again.
In post 1808, Vivax wrote:
In post 1806, Titus wrote:
In post 1802, Vivax wrote:I‘ll be honoured if anyone compared me to Garfield
It‘s surprisingly accurate lmao :P

Am I vain, or who? TF do I know I only play invitationals for now.
And also that we live in parallel realities. I <3 this country
Luke scum. He expects me to acknowledge him because he posted a lot of words equalling waaah Titus caught my partner for bad reasons
Waaaah we ride shiny and chrome valhalla style?

VOTE: Roden

Ergh I can‘t stop laughing at all of this including past games
In post 1879, Uncrowned wrote:VOTE: Roden

cheeky L-1
In post 1922, Uncrowned wrote:VOTE: S_S
In post 1953, Dannflor wrote:VOTE: Titus
In post 2020, Uncrowned wrote:
In post 1219, Roden wrote:
In post 1190, Andresvmb wrote:
In post 1180, Roden wrote:
In post 1177, Andresvmb wrote:
In post 1148, Roden wrote:
In post 1136, Andresvmb wrote:You’re using the NK to justify your vote, which is always suspect (it’s like you haven’t even considered that Scum make kills to confuse / frame the Town). But the single most important way you’re pointing to for identifying Scum in the game from day play conflicts directly with that vote. The fact that you’re not even acknowledging that is bizarre.
I'm voting Titus because it's a read on how she plays the game as scum. She kills threats and stays low key. I can scum read her independently of how I think the scum team played around Ircher's slip. If you think that's a scummy thought process then you're gonna have to explain why because I don't get it.
I didn’t call it Scummy I called it odd.

Imagine I said that I think Scum went out of their way to defend Ircher. And then I voted Titus. And when you asked me why, I made the NK argument you made. I would fully expect for you to ask me well, Titus actively attacked Ircher the entire time. Doesn’t that give you pause? Wouldn’t that contradict what you’re saying is the main reason to suspect someone to be Scum? That’s more where I’m coming from. Not being consistent with your thought process isn’t Scum indicative actually. At least I don’t think so.
The thing is that I wouldn't question you on that. I don't think it's odd to have conflicting scum reads, or have a specific scum read as an exception to how one thinks scum would play.

And I figured you saw the thought process as scummy because you were voting me. I don't think you voted me just because you think I'm odd.
I was trying to put a vote down based on what someone who seems to have a better grasp on the game is voting (I think mastina is Town?). I haven’t actually myself figured out who I think is most likely to be Scum.

I haven’t been historically able to read Titus properly. I think your points aren’t totally silly. I think if the Scum had two shots, shooting petapan who seemed to have a magnifying glass aimed at Titus makes a lot of sense.

Also, what do you make of through from Uncrowned? This is why I think it’s possible they’re Scum (if I had to summarize it).
I think it's a little out of place for them to suggest that because Ircher's wagon didn't hit a lull that it implies it wasn't a mis-elim wagon, when there wasn't really a chance for it to hit a lull in the first place. The focus on the Ydrasse wagon also feels weird, it was obvious the votes were just leftover from RVS. The vote on me is just kind of whatever though, like I thought it was weird when it happened since they seemed confident that Ircher was scum, and pressuring a low activity player is baseline scum play. But they aren't on my radar atm.
is this the attempt to engage with me after being prodded by andre that you're talking about? because this is the only other thing i can possibly thing of, and this isn't asking anything of me at all

"yeah guys i swear i really prodded uncrowned but he's just refusing to interact with me now that i'm actually talking to him" lol this can't be a serious thing you're trying to push rn

i also asked andre to elaborate on those posts and he's yet to say anything i believe so uhh, must be scum too i guess.

VOTE: Roden

i find it too hard to believe he's not blatantly lying about his intentions with me. good elim let's go squad
In post 2028, PenguinPower wrote:VOTE: roden

e-1
In post 2043, Vivax wrote:VOTE: Titus

Well, I really want to be right on that Roden tone-/motivation-read, and S_S doesn't seem to be happening, he popped in briefly on the last page or so.
Although I'd vastly prefer to kill anyone who posted less
In post 2226, furtiveglance wrote:Back to this, they're not giving enough for me.

VOTE: Something_Smart
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Post Post #2232 (isolation #187) » Sun Sep 25, 2022 3:54 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

Players who voted for Titus:
  • Fireisredsir
    Lukewarm
    Ausuka
    Dannflor
    Roden
Players who voted for SS:
  • PenguinPower
    Furtiveglance
    Titus
    Uncrowned
    Klick
Player who voted for Both:
  • Vivax
Players who voted for neither:
  • Mala
    Andresvmb
    Mastina
    jjh927
    Something_Smart
    Ydrasse
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Post Post #2233 (isolation #188) » Sun Sep 25, 2022 4:33 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

Okay. Lets run through this hypothetical. We will assume that Roden is scum, and that his buddies are pushing for the counterwagons to save him.
In post 2232, Lukewarm wrote:Player who voted for Both:
Vivax
We know that neither of his partners decided to try their hand at both wagons (and Roden also did not try for both for what its worth)
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Post Post #2234 (isolation #189) » Sun Sep 25, 2022 4:35 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 2149, mastina wrote:Something_Smart was a counterwagon.
So okay. 1-2 of Roden's scum buddies decided to throw their hand at the Something_Smart counterwagon, and they are the resistance to his current wagon.

Lets find them.
In post 2232, Lukewarm wrote:Players who voted for SS:
  • PenguinPower
    Furtiveglance
    Titus
    Uncrowned
    Klick
And where are they now?
In post 2200, Datisi wrote:
Roden
[7]: mastina, Andresvmb, Malakittens, Ydrasse,
Titus
,
Uncrowned
,
PenguinPower

Titus [5]: Roden, Lukewarm, Ausuka, Dannflor, Vivax
Malakittens [1]:
furtiveglance

Dannflor [1]: fireisredsir

not voting [3]: jjh927, Something_Smart,
Klick
Almost all of them are on Roden. Zero votes on SS.

FurtiveGlance is being treated as town by me based on the Ircher stuff, so he does not fit the bill.

So its Klick? Klick is the great scum motivated Roden resistance?

Spoiler: The Great klick Resistance to Roden
In post 1250, Datisi wrote:Roden [5]: mastina, Andresvmb,
klick
, Ausuka, Uncrowned
In post 1350, Datisi wrote:Roden [5]: mastina, Andresvmb,
klick
, Ausuka, Malakittens
In post 1425, Datisi wrote:Roden [6]: mastina, Andresvmb,
klick
, Ausuka, Malakittens, Ydrasse
In post 1500, Datisi wrote:Roden [6]: mastina, Andresvmb,
klick
, Ausuka, Malakittens, Ydrasse
In post 1711, Datisi wrote:Roden [6]: mastina, Andresvmb,
klick
, Ausuka, Malakittens, Ydrasse
In post 1751, Datisi wrote:Roden [5]: mastina, Andresvmb,
klick
, Malakittens, Ydrasse
In post 1875, Datisi wrote:Roden [7]: mastina, Andresvmb,
klick
, Malakittens, Ydrasse, Titus, Vivax
In post 2013, Datisi wrote:Roden [6]: mastina, Andresvmb,
klick
, Malakittens, Ydrasse, Titus



Conclusion:

If we assume Roden scum, and say that the scum team joined the SS wagon, they gave up and decided to bus.
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Post Post #2235 (isolation #190) » Sun Sep 25, 2022 4:36 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

That leaves the Titus counter wagon.
In post 2232, Lukewarm wrote:Players who voted for Titus:
Fireisredsir
Lukewarm
Ausuka
Dannflor
Roden
Fire left Titus ages ago.

I know I am town

I refuse to believe that Ausuka and Roden are partners. Like, even if we assume Roden!scum, that spews Ausuka town. Will fight you. -- So they do not fit the bill of what we are looking for.

Dann was not even here to contribute to the resistance until after Roden hit e-1


Conclusion:

If we assume Roden scum, and say that the scum team joined the Titus wagon to save him:

scum!Fire naked voted Titus, then pissed off once it became a real wagon, and is just planted on non-viable wagons this whole time?

Its Dann, and actually he managed to be the source of all of this from before he repped in?

(You think I am scum)
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Post Post #2236 (isolation #191) » Sun Sep 25, 2022 4:45 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 2149, mastina wrote:If Roden is Town, why have there been so many attempted counterwagons to him?

Vivax was a counterwagon shut down ONLY by Vivax's vig claim. He got like five votes prior to it.
Something_Smart was a counterwagon.
Titus was a counterwagon.

Which is, statistically, more likely?

I am struggling to see this narrative actually exist in the thread.

Vivax was not a counter wagon based on the linearity of time

If SS was a scum designated counter wagon, they gave up and are currently bussing (and therefore NOT the source of the resistance of the Roden elim)

If Titus was a designated scum counter wagon, then the counter wagon was actually made by the town. (Fire left the wagon, Dann was not here yet, Vivax is town, Ausuka is not partnered, I am town.)
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Post Post #2237 (isolation #192) » Sun Sep 25, 2022 5:23 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

I have been staring at this too long, and my brain has turned to mush.

I am struggling to find The Thing that scum have been doing wrt to these wagons, but the "But so many counter wagons" argument feels like a bad argument.

When I just look at the movement of votes, I almost get a feeling that both wagons are town and scum just don't care.

I just don't see the movement to save Roden (very little effort to consolidate onto which ever of Titus/SS wagon had the most townies planted on them. All SS voters moved to Roden. If you take out Roden himself (who is scum in this hypothetical), that makes like 2/3 Townies on Titus for most of the day, and therefore not as good a choice over SS)

But I also don't see the the movement to save Titus, because basically all the people on Roden were there before the Titus wagon actually got above 3 simultaneous votes.

It does not match my read on Titus, but when I look at it that is what it feels like. -- Unless maybe both scum partners were already on Roden from early in the day / when he was being obstinate / revealed that he lied about part of his role, so were unable to move when Titus started getting pressure?

Mass vote moving pattern recognition is not really my strong suit, but once I got started I kinda got stuck here for too long. idk
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Post Post #2249 (isolation #193) » Sun Sep 25, 2022 11:59 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 2245, fireisredsir wrote:nevermind this is a fuckinf chore

VOTE: mastina

i think this is the most protein thing we can do and i literally dont care atp goodnight
Was shocked by this, but the stance is not actually out of left field based on his iso, so :shrug:

Spoiler:
In post 1405, fireisredsir wrote:also i guess i should say that i don't really trust mastina at all, not super interested in sheeping reads there

roden seems alright so far. the claim has a couple weird things about it but i think that it could come from town. i don't really want to get into that discussion too much yet due to reasons, but the play outside of that seems maybe a little scummy

ig the main reason i don't want to vote there is bc of mastina, but maybe that's dumb, idk
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Post Post #2260 (isolation #194) » Mon Sep 26, 2022 3:56 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 2259, Ausuka wrote:
In post 1999, Dannflor wrote:Mastina I have this sinking gut feeling that you are town and that scum is currently playing around you specifically and pocketing you

I would love a good faith effort to sort me but that feels like not the direction you’re headed in
This comes across as an extremely specific feeling to have. I know gut is gut but is there any way you can elaborate?
Ausuka would you be terribly mad if I hammered before this answer came?

Like, I saw Vivax vote, I saw Andres comment, and I decided that I was just gonna hammer because half the lobby does not seem to be playing the game, and the half that is does not seem to be interested in moving their positions any more this phase (me included to be fair), and I feel like at this point a Roden flip is not the worst thing in the world, even if it flips town

But then I saw a direct question being asked :oops:
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Post Post #2263 (isolation #195) » Mon Sep 26, 2022 4:00 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 2262, Ausuka wrote:I hope I count as playing the game!

But if you really want to hammer you can do it, I highly doubt either me or Dannflor will be killed at night.
You do!

Your reads/vote have been moving around dynamically in a way that tracks with your thoughts adjusting for things that are happening, and you are here asking questions like the above, and the questions that you asked me. You are not one of the people I was referring to lol

VOTE: Roden
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Post Post #2270 (isolation #196) » Wed Sep 28, 2022 6:47 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 2089, Lukewarm wrote:I will be insufferable until we kill Titus

VOTE: titus
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Post Post #2271 (isolation #197) » Wed Sep 28, 2022 6:48 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 2127, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 2094, Titus wrote:
In post 2092, Lukewarm wrote:Given the context of his earlier posts, in what world does scum!Roden think that this answer is going to do anything but hurt him? Like this is an actively self sabotaging answer when scum can give any answer they want
Wifom. Fake posts are posted.
In post 2099, Titus wrote:
In post 2097, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 2094, Titus wrote:
In post 2092, Lukewarm wrote:Given the context of his earlier posts, in what world does scum!Roden think that this answer is going to do anything but hurt him? Like this is an actively self sabotaging answer when scum can give any answer they want
Wifom. Fake posts are posted.
Just shouting wifom is a cop out. Scum can do literally anything, the point is which is more likely.

I just don't think it is very likely at all, that given the situation that he was in, he would take that avenue as scum. And therefore, it being the truth is the more likely reality we live in.
You don't think it's likely at all, because that fits your worldview.

Scum players and scum teams can and do have widely varying reactions. Maybe it's dead in water, maybe it's as little info as possible, maybe the amount wouldn't make sense, maybe the whole role is a fiction, maybe he's scum truth telling

Maybe Roden is town lying
Maybe he's telling the truth and is town

Whatever he said serves his purposes. As far as I know, there's no mech for any of it.

Arguing why that claim in particular supposes things that can't be known (if town).

I feel like this is a pretty scummy series of post on its own btw.

It take no stances, and makes no arguments. She just popped in to stir paranoia on any presented reason to town read Roden, without actually engaging with the reasons or talking about the reasons she believes him to be scum.

Like, it is just "oooohhhhh wifom scary" and "all things are unknowable"

She is not talking about Roden, she is talking in generalities, with the final conclusion being: so you can't make town reads.
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Post Post #2286 (isolation #198) » Wed Sep 28, 2022 6:59 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 2274, Andresvmb wrote:
In post 2270, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 2089, Lukewarm wrote:I will be insufferable until we kill Titus

VOTE: titus
If you’re right, why are you still alive, and Ausuka dead? Just curious what your thoughts are on that.
I think that me being killed would have led to her elim today just as likely as me being alive to push it.

Ausuka is an odd kill, like I town read her, but don't remember that being a super wide spread thought. Might have been a pr guess actually, idk.
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Post Post #2287 (isolation #199) » Wed Sep 28, 2022 6:59 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 2285, Ydrasse wrote:
In post 2272, Ydrasse wrote:did titus ever claim a pt because. Um . well
Titus has not claimed anything that I am aware of
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