Open 865 | CultD3 | Postgame

[MathBlade]

Howdy Reading now.

I am so glad to be town for once.

To that end kinda wanna see where everyone’s head’s at:

Meg: Long time no see. Who is your top town and scum read?

Mala: Is this it? The fabled game where we are both town and alive?

Roden: What are your vibes of the game so far?

Elements: Don’t know you that well. What’s your favorite thing about the game so far?

Campbell: Looks like your a strategy guy. Do you have a plan now or more just thinking mechanics?

Gamma: Nice work in the theme game. Gonna see if you have similar vibes. Any strong reads/feels?

NK15: Got any spicy thoughts? Usually you are good but tend to be drowned out so hope you see this and drop a spicy thought or read.

[MathBlade]

Well they would be "Known 15" if they had a picture

ooooo
UNVOTE:

Elements and NK15 probably contains at least one scum.

This feels fake.

[MathBlade]

Well they would be "Known 15" if they had a picture

ooooo
UNVOTE:

Why the unvote?

You can have a light TR

[MathBlade]

Yeah honestly I think our objective here is to figure out who the CL is and make sure they are executed today.
Also make sure to remember that the second cult member might try and save their CL today cause if they don’t they would have a low chance of winning.

My suggestion is to make sure if your town reading someone not to blindly sheep their town reads (I never do) but cause like they could be the second cultist trying to make their CL look good so make sure you have valid reasons for each of your Townreads.

I am of the opposite opinion imho.

I think aim for any cult is fine. If we get CL awesome but if we get a generic cult we can use that to aim for CL.

But if we aim for CL and hit town then we are kinda in trouble.

Once we have a foothold then narrow in.

[MathBlade]

Oh sweet, I can actually read Math

Vibe of the game so far was that your slot wasn't doing much and seemed frozen. I scum read Drapion independently of Hutmeil, but I read Hutmeil's inaction as scummier. Meg, Elements, and Gamma all seem pretty townie, not sure on Mala and Fred yet. NK15 is a player that I'm waiting for a meta tell before I settle on a read there.

Why no question/comment for Drapion?

Because I got a sense of Drapion from the last few posts is that Drapion has some strong opinions re Gamma based on Meg’s posting.

Drapion is one of those people who will speak enough.

[MathBlade]

And lol if you can read me I would be thrilled but the more often someone says that the more often someone is wrong about it or scum. So kinda going to see if you read me right.

[MathBlade]

I agree with the early read on Elements, CL probably just does their best to fade into the background D1.

I kinda think maybe Meg (if Elements is scum) as a good CL or Drapion. If Elements is town.

I think certain players play scum and therefore different.

Still catching up but I don’t get Meg’s posting re elements

[MathBlade]

VOTE: MegAzumarill

Spicy I like this

You can have a TR if Meg is scum.

[MathBlade]

VOTE: hutmeil

You mind explaining that?

I mind explaining that. Explanation will be typed up in a .txt file.

and will be produced upon request after a certain period of time has passed.

Requesting this.

VOTE: Meg

[MathBlade]

Fred looks like he's having fun, probably town just because he's staying active while not making a big deal out of the slow game activity

Drapion, do you think Gamma is the CL? Or is it just a general scum read?

Fred looks like he's having fun, probably town just because he's staying active while not making a big deal out of the slow game activity

Drapion, do you think Gamma is the CL? Or is it just a general scum read?

More of a general wolf read. Could be CL could be other Cult.
He was also the first player to cast suspicion and I don’t really like how he did it with the vote and saying that elements vote was bad.
Then later says it’s also a vibe read.

Nah I think Gamma’s town.

[MathBlade]

VOTE: Not Known 15

Yeah

I can definitely see Cult not wanting to be on me.

[MathBlade]

Drapion looks noncommittal here on read on me but I don't think I'd expect town here to be completely commited.
Still not a fan of it

This reads informed Drapion is town.
Drapion had weird wording last game I was with him.

I think it’s NAI

[MathBlade]

Well they would be "Known 15" if they had a picture

ooooo
UNVOTE:

Why the unvote?

You can have a light TR

This Unvote feels fake.

Everyone knows it’s RVS and people vote for dumb crap.

Then people start to get reasons for reads.

Unvoting for a crap reason feels artificial

[MathBlade]

That would only be true if we mis-elim today. On the other hand, if we kill the Leader today then town gets like, five more chances to kill the second cultist. So it's a bit swingy.

The cult cannot afford to lose the CL today at all; it is a win in 7 of all 9 setups and a de facto 7:1 Nightless with 1 IC in the JK setups without FN. That's definitely something to look for.

As opposed to not killing Cult today and its suddenly 5:3 nightless with a big asterix next to the clears.
Very unstable positioning today.

.. I very much don’t like this.

Fear mongering like this tends to stick in people’s minds and is a common trick of scum.

Instead we need positivity.

We have some of the best town hunters in the game.

So I think we can hit scum.

[MathBlade]

Oh sweet, I can actually read Math

Vibe of the game so far was that your slot wasn't doing much and seemed frozen. I scum read Drapion independently of Hutmeil, but I read Hutmeil's inaction as scummier. Meg, Elements, and Gamma all seem pretty townie, not sure on Mala and Fred yet. NK15 is a player that I'm waiting for a meta tell before I settle on a read there.

Why no question/comment for Drapion?

You’re more than welcome to join the Drapion wagon btw.

I don’t SR Drapion but could be wrong.

The wagon seems pretty Townie.

[MathBlade]

Above The Line

Roden
ProfessorDrapion
Not Known 15
Fredrick A Campbell
MegAzumarill
------------------------------------ The Line
Gamma Emerald
hutmeil
Malakittens

Below The Line

Why am I below the line?

This readwall also feels fake because NK 15 has 6 posts
Where as my predecessor had 5 but my slot is inactive and therefore scum?

Doesn’t compute.

I think Elements is the most likely scum on my wagon.

Meg and Elements are kinda together for me and I would do either.

[MathBlade]

That would only be true if we mis-elim today. On the other hand, if we kill the Leader today then town gets like, five more chances to kill the second cultist. So it's a bit swingy.

The cult cannot afford to lose the CL today at all; it is a win in 7 of all 9 setups and a de facto 7:1 Nightless with 1 IC in the JK setups without FN. That's definitely something to look for.

As opposed to not killing Cult today and its suddenly 5:3 nightless with a big asterix next to the clears.
Very unstable positioning today.

.. I very much don’t like this.

Fear mongering like this tends to stick in people’s minds and is a common trick of scum.

Instead we need positivity.

We have some of the best town hunters in the game.

So I think we can hit scum.

Do you disagree with the notion we must be more proactive today for discussion as opposed to a normal mafia game? Do you disagree with my setup analysis here? I don't see how this is possibly fearmongering or even what end it would acheive if it was.

It’s subtle. “suddenly 5:3 nightless” it’s like pink elephant

You just thought of a pink elephant.

It’s the same shit I do.

If I like or hate a game day and it’s gone on a while I will say “Days been going on a while” then everyone becomes lethargic. It’s poisoning a well.

Here you’ve poisoned the well that we will be in a 5:3 nightless when there’s no foundation for such a fear.

[MathBlade]

Drapion looks noncommittal here on read on me but I don't think I'd expect town here to be completely commited.
Still not a fan of it

This reads informed Drapion is town.
Drapion had weird wording last game I was with him.

I think it’s NAI

VOTE: Not Known 15

Yeah

I can definitely see Cult not wanting to be on me.

These also don't make sense/aren't explained respectively.

Overall this feel really contrived

First post is pretty straightforward

Gamma’s push on Drapion (and some Roden but mostly Gamma) is about word choice.
I was providing a counter example.
I think it’s NAI
But I don’t scumread anyone on the wagon so I am not like OMG no

The latter is simple
I am a top wagon
Tons of people are inactive yet random dogpile indicates scum
Second vote is usually scum and I already scumread Elements

[MathBlade]

Well the point is to avoid that through being more proactive today? I'm trying to be and I feel that's the logical next step to take with that information. "Mislims are more impactful today" It's the same reason people consider things more in depth in ELO situations.

It feels like it would have the opposite effect than you described, and that was my point

Then don’t try. Just be.

Sure we could end up with all town elims and lose but now people are thinking about it.

There’s no reason to be negative right now.

I think people do consider stuff more in-depth in elo

Right now is about social reads though not mechanical ones.

Trying to force continuous elo is sketchy for no good reason.

If we have an elo situation then it can be addressed

[MathBlade]

Drapion looks noncommittal here on read on me but I don't think I'd expect town here to be completely commited.
Still not a fan of it

Drapion does look noncommittal (agreeing/egging Gamma on)
But I don’t think you’d expect town here to be completely committed

It’s a cognitive dissonance.

If you think he’s scum then you’d just vote Drapion.

But instead you agree and say he’s town for no good reason or say you don’t expect him to be town and don’t vote him

But “not a fan”

It’s hard to tell if you made a grammar issue and meant to say you think Drapion is town (how I took it)
Or you continue to think Drap is scum but then random not a fan and no action

It’s just feels like you know Drapion is town with the inaction.

[MathBlade]

Ima sleep on this catchup but reads scum motivated to me. I don't like how the preflips were handeled some points feel contrived or easy to make as scum. It's very much an entrance to try to make a motion and I don't think that motion favors town


Would not be surprised one bit if it was Math/NK here

Why?

What motivation is there?

I am not asking people to vote me.

I already pointed out that you’re too chicken shit to do so.

This says some points are “easy”.

Are they “easy” or confusing?

I don’t have any preflips in my arguments.

I have reads. The closest thing you could say to preflip is if Elements is scum and if elements is town then etc.

That’s just SvT/TVS things people do.

[MathBlade]

Not asking people to not vote for me*

[MathBlade]

Drapion looks noncommittal here on read on me but I don't think I'd expect town here to be completely commited.
Still not a fan of it

Drapion does look noncommittal (agreeing/egging Gamma on)
But I don’t think you’d expect town here to be completely committed

It’s a cognitive dissonance.

If you think he’s scum then you’d just vote Drapion.

But instead you agree and say he’s town for no good reason or say you don’t expect him to be town and don’t vote him

But “not a fan”

It’s hard to tell if you made a grammar issue and meant to say you think Drapion is town (how I took it)
Or you continue to think Drap is scum but then random not a fan and no action

It’s just feels like you know Drapion is town with the inaction.

I'm saying in general it's a scummy thing but in this situation it would be reasonable for town to do it? If both alignments would do it it's by definition NAI. The "not a fan" is saying that I don't townread them for it.

Then my point remains

You seem to be egging Gamma on.

There’s no reason to agree then deflect

[MathBlade]

180 is how I form reads

Scum rarely if ever do relational reads or feel where the vibes are

So I make hypothesis and test them

You have yet to give me a reason why my gut relational read is wrong

You aren’t voting who you scumread and your posts ping me

The entire case on me is predecessor was inactive

I have stuff now to be evaluated on.

If anyone still scumreads me then go for it but you not voting me is damning

[MathBlade]

Like Math why are you trying to insist on me being voted.
Roden has also shown sus on me.


I mean I kinda get what your saying that Meg hasn’t really made it clear on their read towards me. (Even though I’m pretty sure they wolf read me) but saying “oh you should have voted this” is just bad it seems like your trying to get others to vote on me without stating a wolf read on me so you don’t look bad when I go over and to help out your partner Gamma who’s currently pushing me and is top wagon.

I am not insisting on you being voted.

To the contrary, I think you’re town.

I want Meg to vote for someone who she scumreads which she hasn’t.

I am trying to coordinate with Roden. I don’t think you’re scum yet the wagon doesn’t seem bad.

If you are town then my prior assumptions of the gamestate are wrong.

So either way is protown.

I’d rather we do Meg or Elements but you’re not bad strictly speaking.

[MathBlade]

Not sure why you TR Gamma.
Not sure If I like or hate Math so far.
I mean I’ve liked Meg so far and Math’s slot was kinda null with the “town!meta” read from Gamma.

I think Gamma/Math might be the team. Not sure which one is the CL though.

Gamma’s posts were almost word for word what I was thinking when I read in real time.

I am town therefore Gamma is probably town.

[MathBlade]

Like Math why are you trying to insist on me being voted.
Roden has also shown sus on me.


I mean I kinda get what your saying that Meg hasn’t really made it clear on their read towards me. (Even though I’m pretty sure they wolf read me) but saying “oh you should have voted this” is just bad it seems like your trying to get others to vote on me without stating a wolf read on me so you don’t look bad when I go over and to help out your partner Gamma who’s currently pushing me and is top wagon.

I am not insisting on you being voted.

To the contrary, I think you’re town.

I want Meg to vote for someone who she scumreads which she hasn’t.

I am trying to coordinate with Roden. I don’t think you’re scum yet the wagon doesn’t seem bad.

If you arent town then my prior assumptions of the gamestate are wrong.

So either way is protown.

I’d rather we do Meg or Elements but you’re not bad strictly speaking.

Phone autocorrect fixed

[MathBlade]

VOTE: Drapion

Last few posts just look like an intimidation tactic. Warning someone that you'll vote them if they do a certain thing doesn't really make any sense from a town perspective. Why let your suspect know how to avoid getting scum read if you actually think they're scum?

It does make sense.
To me if they do it they would be an obvious wolf or very likely.
“Avoid getting scum read” “think they are scum” if it’s the same thing how is it being avoided?
And I don’t entirely scum read Math I just think they can be aligned with Gamma here and is making some kind of wolf play.
Idk, if this is your only reasoning that you have now decided to of voted me can you tell me what prevented you before? Was it just that you thought Math was more wolfier like I think you mentioned before or was there something else with it like something in regards to my posts.

Think a moment

You’re assuming I would be an obvious wolf.

There’s almost no evidence of that (except the very rare game where I have made a mistake).

It’s more likely that I could be town and wrong on Gamma (I don’t think so).

I have gone obvTown as the big bad in 42 player games.

I am very good at monitoring associations as scum.

If you think you’ve seriously paired me with Gamma you really need to check yourself.

I know for a fact 1/2 of that is false. I just got done with a game of Gamma town and I see no difference

[MathBlade]

Hell you could even assume I am scum and Gamma town

But both of us together is an illogical assumption.

[MathBlade]

Hell you could even assume I am scum and Gamma town

But both of us together is an illogical assumption.

Why?
I already explained how it makes sense.

And I just explained why it doesn’t

You said it’s “an obvious play” which is devoid of explanation.

I countered that with many examples why there is never anything obvious about what I do when scum.

[MathBlade]

You’re arguing what you’d do as scum and then applying it out versus who is scum.

I don’t judge others by if they play as scum me

I judge them if they aren’t being Townie.

[MathBlade]

There doesn’t need to be blatant evidence you two are aligned, you can look at partner associations simply based on actions.
The way you have chosen to go about the thread was to me a way to get players to vote me without wanting to start a scum read on me yourself cause Gamma already has put one on me.

Remind me Math, why do you town read me again?
Meta read or?

It is simply a meta read yes.

Your first sentence is contradictory. Partner associations is evidence.

I haven’t chosen to get them to vote you because of you. I have chosen them because two fold
1) Cooperating with townreads
And
2) Making scum commit to something.

The fact it is you is of no consequence.

If Gamma and you were swapped I would make the same.

It’s purely a strategic notion.

I TR your wagon. Ergo if I am wrong then letting it go through is fine as it’s just a weak meta TR. I could be wrong. It’s not as strong as my Gamma TR but I have known Gamma a long time.

I find it much more valuable to attract attention and force players like Meg and Elements to vote

And those that vote me explain their read with more than inactive.

[MathBlade]

You’re arguing what you’d do as scum and then applying it out versus who is scum.

I don’t judge others by if they play as scum me

I judge them if they aren’t being Townie.

No I’m applying what scum do and where scum is and how you have approached this game so far has good partner equity with Gamma if they are cult, which I believe they are.

“Townie” to me is someone who I don’t see any wolf motivation from and is looking like an obvious execution that wolves want, and other similar stuff in this regard.

Doesn’t matter how much you post or how good you sound, it doesn’t tell us anything about alignment.
There is key details to determining someone’s alignment.

What scum would do is what you scum would do. It’s the same thing.

And no. It’s horrible equity. Let’s grant your premise. Assume it’s true. I have a hard defense of Gamma. I almost never do defense as scum. It’s a waste. As scum it’s a game of control, manipulating people into doing your bidding. Wasting precious capital on defense is horrible. I will link you a prior scum game where I explain this and iirc it was with Gamma I think.

I agree it’s not how someone sounds it’s in the substance

You’re assuming scum play one way.

[MathBlade]

viewtopic.php?f=90&t=85538

This is my scumread to Gamma which I refer.

I would suggest you give it a look before making bad assumptions about us being teamed.

[MathBlade]

You think my wolf read on Gamma was something before?
Damn if Gamma keeps going and I’m 1-shot away from death row, he’s going to be so obvious wolf tomorrow that everyone will see it.

Not sure I follow.

My meta TR on you is weak. I only have seen you be this strong when iirc you were town but incorrect. It matches my read of Gamma.

I see no reason or evidence you’re right. I don’t see any actual argument to rebutt so nothing to change.

What is valuable is if you’re town as I think you are getting you in the proper headspace to read me.

[MathBlade]

It’s quite possible I am mixing players so I am going to try to find that game.

They all start to blur after a while.

[MathBlade]

(Mathblade)

I want Meg to vote for someone who she scumreads which she hasn’t.

wat

I think Gamma is town. This reads as solving much more than aggressive scum to me here.

I think there's a decent chance of scum in Roden/ Not Known. I don't like the way they handeled Gamma's push on Drapion. It felt like trying to stay off the wagon yet fuel it (implication is that Drapion is scum for playing differently than a town game) in Roden's case. In Not Known's case they seem to be on the wagon and supporting it but backing away from being a major voice there or elsewhere.

Howdy Reading now.

I am so glad to be town for once.

To that end kinda wanna see where everyone’s head’s at:

Meg: Long time no see. Who is your top town and scum read?

Mala: Is this it? The fabled game where we are both town and alive?

Roden: What are your vibes of the game so far?

Elements: Don’t know you that well. What’s your favorite thing about the game so far?

Campbell: Looks like your a strategy guy. Do you have a plan now or more just thinking mechanics?

Gamma: Nice work in the theme game. Gonna see if you have similar vibes. Any strong reads/feels?

NK15: Got any spicy thoughts? Usually you are good but tend to be drowned out so hope you see this and drop a spicy thought or read.

Elements I think is town. I've been either a fan of their posts so far or feel like they are +town.

Biggest scumread is NK15 for the reasons I have mentioned.

Vote Count 1.04

I've been waiting for her for so long
Open the sky and let her come down

MathBlade (3):

Roden, Elements, Fredrick A Campbell

Gamma Emerald (2):

Malakittens, ProfessorDrapion

ProfessorDrapion (2):

Not Known 15, Gamma Emerald

Not Known 15 (1):

MegAzumarill

Roden (1):

MathBlade

With 9 alive, it's 5 to eliminate.

Deadline for Day 1 is September 28 at 11:00 AM EDT.

Deadline Timer:

(expired on 2022-09-28 11:00:00)

Yet you don’t try to get NK15 elimmed
You’re proving my point

[MathBlade]

I'm still waiting on their response to my orignal push on them. Or frankly most people haven't responded to the push yet.
I don't see the value in trying to get them elimmed this moment as compared to after a response

Then make them.

Instead you’re content on me or Drapion wagons which if you’re right on NK15 one has to be wrong.

You’re way too passive

[MathBlade]

Unless you're asking me to blindy try and cause an elim whenever I have a scumread which I have problems with

That’s what town tries to do!

Elim scum.

They sure as hell don’t go

“X is scum”

Then ignore it until someone else cares to respond

[MathBlade]

I'm still waiting on their response to my orignal push on them. Or frankly most people haven't responded to the push yet.
I don't see the value in trying to get them elimmed this moment as compared to after a response

Then make them.

Instead you’re content on me or Drapion wagons which if you’re right on NK15 one has to be wrong.

You’re way too passive

How many posta has nk15 made since i posted thay push?

My count is 0

WTF else do you want? That's like the last thing that happened before you showed up

It's just coincidence.

You're more than willing to attack my slot. Not vote it despite the same activity level (before I joined)

Yet lurk it out on NK15.

Yes literally you have a vote on an outdated scumread.

I expect town you to rally people to NK 15 or abandon it for a better scumread. You do neither.

I do not think you're town and just want to fence sit

[MathBlade]

I think there's a decent chance of scum in Roden/ Not Known. I don't like the way they handeled Gamma's push on Drapion. It felt like trying to stay off the wagon yet fuel it (implication is that Drapion is scum for playing differently than a town game) in Roden's case. In Not Known's case they seem to be on the wagon and supporting it but backing away from being a major voice there or elsewhere.

This is not enough to avoid the content in the thread. What do you think of Drapion? of Gamma? of me?

[MathBlade]

It’s quite possible I am mixing players so I am going to try to find that game.

They all start to blur after a while.

I can't find the thread. I know we've played together and you were a tunneler. It's annoying me. It was a game where I was town you were town and Titus was scum and it's infuriating me. I was right on Galron being scum.

[MathBlade]

I'm getting too angry so I'm going to step away a bit but Meg IMHO is very clearly scum here who doesn't want to put herself with any solid read anywhere.

[MathBlade]

I think there's a decent chance of scum in Roden/ Not Known. I don't like the way they handeled Gamma's push on Drapion. It felt like trying to stay off the wagon yet fuel it (implication is that Drapion is scum for playing differently than a town game) in Roden's case. In Not Known's case they seem to be on the wagon and supporting it but backing away from being a major voice there or elsewhere.

This is not enough to avoid the content in the thread. What do you think of Drapion? of Gamma? of me?

You literally edited out the part of my post that answered your question of gamma

I didn’t? I copy pasted your post word for word?

There’s nothing there. Even in the quote you did. You don’t like a reaction to Gamma’s push on Drapion. None of that paragraph is an opinion on anyone.

[MathBlade]

Nope Roden moved.

[MathBlade]

??? I need to step away. Because now you’re voting me and don’t want me on L-1?

This doesn’t make sense at all

[MathBlade]

E-1 sorry

[MathBlade]

Math, even if elements is town and Meg is scum then Meg is likely partnered with Drapion as CL.

Why do you say this?

If what you say is true I am voting the most likely scum.

I am not going to shot in the dark for a leader. I am going to aim for scum and if they happen to be CL fine.

[MathBlade]

?? Charisma fueled wagon ??

1) I think I am the only person voting you. So no wagon.
2) Every wagon on D1 is charisma based. There’s no day actions to change that. So saying it’s “just Charisma” is duh.
3) The only point you have that’s anywhere close to valid is misrep where I made some literal mistakes but the spirit is still there. You’re hunting for minutia versus the spirit of the words.


You’re not actively campaigning for who you want dead. Content to sideline.

You pinged me and I explained why.

Your defense of Elements was bad. Elements whatever their alignment clearly has a bad reaction. You said it was good with nothing to back that up. I keep bringing up bad reactions and you argue tiny points over substance.

[MathBlade]

I am not going to shot in the dark for a leader. I am going to aim for scum and if they happen to be CL fine.

Why not? Day 1 CL is sooo much better than Day 2 CL.Very likely even an instant win.

Same reason you don’t aim to win the lottery just improve.

Yes D1 CL is great. But continually aiming for it denies relationships and other information.

Aiming for anyone who is cult which by definition includes the CL is better as we either maintain or improve our status. If we hit town then we know our foundations for evil are wrong and reset.

Whereas if we aim for CL and hit town we don’t learn anything.

So to me it’s always better to just filter between cult and not.

Later on when we have a few flips then aim specifically for CL with evidence.

[MathBlade]

Well they would be "Known 15" if they had a picture

ooooo
UNVOTE:

Why the unvote?

You can have a light TR

This Unvote for starters.

As I already explained I don’t think that’s a Townie Unvote.

This feels very “let’s have some interactions” between you and Meg

[MathBlade]

I mean I have done “This is dumb and yelled about it for 400 pages” the only thing that does is make people more likely to elim you.

Yes this bugs you but I am trying not to drown the thread in my way or highway

[MathBlade]

What is your read on Mala, Math?

Don’t have one yet.

She’s too quiet for my liking but she has done that as both alignments.

[MathBlade]

I do think roden is town tho

Hot take: I think you are town too

You may wish to change votes if you mean this

?? I am voting Meg.

Why would Mala agreeing with me on you and Roden being town impact that?

I don’t TR her because lack of activity.

[MathBlade]

Wait a minute why is Mala voting you?

@Mala explain please

[MathBlade]

I am E-1 and VT.

Still think Elements and Meg are cult. Maybe Mala but her needing a prod is NAI since her EMT work gets busy sometimes.

[MathBlade]

MegAzumarill — Very likely scum
Malakittens — NAI inactivity
Roden - town
Me — ice cream lover
Elements - very likely scum
ProfessorDrapion - town
Fredrick A Campbell - town
Gamma Emerald - town
Not Known 15 - town lean

Final reads

VOTE: elements

Elements vote on me makes me think elements is not CL as elements will get focus when I flip green.

I don’t get how Drapion thinks Elements is town. If I am wrong on Meg reconsider Drapion TR

Good luck as I will be busy today.

[MathBlade]

I kinda think voting for survival is the wrong play. I could vote Drapion in the case I am wrong on Meg but kinda hedging my bets here.

I think my flip is way more helpful for the gamestate as the only reason that has been brought up is inactivity (now false) and being confusing (standard me) so *shrug*

[MathBlade]

CL Math has to claim VT here so I don't think the claim is AI

This is incorrect.

If I was cult leader and thought I was going down I would know a limited space of which setups would exist and then claim a PR of that. Then by other players reactions I would know where the PRs were and would guide my team accordingly, I mean I am not CL so the point is null and void, but if I was CL I would know I would be on borrowed time so I would be claiming a PR of some kind.

[MathBlade]

CL Math has to claim VT here so I don't think the claim is AI

Why wouldn't he follow me on Drapion then? If he's CL it would be the best play for him. If I'm wrong on Drapion then it makes me look bad and I can be pushed tomorrow. If I'm right then he has me pocketed.

Granted...he would know I'm cautious around him and that I would look out for a potential pocket. If he's scum then he would try to play around me like he has in past games.

If I had one thing I would say concerns me. It's that he isn't trying that hard to convince me to vote with him.

Like I said I am a VT. Since I am not a PR my flip isn’t the be all end all and it’s more important my TRs communicate and collaborate with each other.

Right now that seems to be happening and a town block can form. If Drapion (or whoever my town block picks) flips town then either A) People see my reads as true or B) scum in my TRs or both

If Drapion flips scum then my reads are wrong

I am forceful when I feel things will be bad if I don’t get my way

I don’t feel that here whether we elim me or someone else.

I wish we would elim Meg or Elements but like I said town block more important especially if we don’t hit CL so we can look for changes in players

[MathBlade]

If you get CCed as CL your faction loses?

No.

I have a track record of winning “unwinnable” games.

Hitting big scum D1 has lead to lots of town losses before because town eats itself alive as scum watch idly by.

Being wagoned D1 almost inevitably leads to a short shelf life regardless of alignment.

Thinking something is “auto loss” is shortsighted.

As either alignment I am planning days and days ahead.

[MathBlade]

No but literally its nightless with more clears than mafia 7/9 times

“Clears” have workarounds.

I really wish you’d have seen a game where I am good scum.

I don’t want to detail this because it would give advice to you and I think you’re scum.

I don’t think hitting CL is as big a jackpot as represented, but I think people don’t play scum the way I do.

[MathBlade]

8/9 chance of losing unless a confirmed townie is eliminated.

Like literally massclaim day 2 on a day 1 CL flip is GG

Fine.

Let’s pretend.

Assume mass claim d2.

Best case for town is three clears. Scum doesn’t claim PR. This is autoloss.

Worst case scum claims PR. Then no clears and have to elim in the PRs giving room for breath.

Like stop pushing this

You won’t convince me of that.

[MathBlade]

Quite honestly I would make a slight tweak to the setup if CL is elimmed d1, remaining cult becomes cult leader otherwise no backup.

But what is your goal here? Does this help you read me going into this mechanic reads?

It’s just bloat

[MathBlade]

Quite honestly I would make a slight tweak to the setup if CL is elimmed d1, remaining cult becomes cult leader otherwise no backup.

But what is your goal here? Does this help you read me going into this mechanic reads?

It’s just bloat

And max cult size 2 not 3 to create an actual punishment for scum

But yeah I don’t see the point

I have won a lot of of oh shit games.

You can argue it’s some “omg we win” and strive for it.

I just don’t think it’s the “be all end all” that it’s pushed to be

[MathBlade]

Quite honestly I would make a slight tweak to the setup if CL is elimmed d1, remaining cult becomes cult leader otherwise no backup.

But what is your goal here? Does this help you read me going into this mechanic reads?

It’s just bloat

If you want to make an argument you claim a PR as CL that just isn't valid, then I will deconstruct it

You’re missing the NKs?

Recruit and NKs?

[MathBlade]

Like N1 if I was cult would be recruit
Other PR multitask their thing and kill if applicable

Next day is 7 alive 3 cult elo

[MathBlade]

We aren't playing Cultafia.

If CL dies no recruit, straight up no nk

Where do you get no nightkill from?

Rules don’t say no NK?

[MathBlade]

In what world is this setup balanced with recruit + nightkill

Re role PMs they almost never say factionals

I figured recruit plus NK is balanced with the TPRs and no defense

But lemme ask catboi if cult have NKs

If they don’t that drastically changes my opinion on some things

Btw if they don’t have a NK you’re now a TR

[MathBlade]

Like the CL just needs to recruit one player and the cult actually has a really good chance of winning this, even if the CL gets voted out the next day.

Great if Math doesn’t get executed today and gets executed tomorrow and flips CL, I’m going for you after Gamma cause this post screams “Convert Me” in Math’s view.

???

What?

This basically says that you think I'm town and that you're letting the cult know they don't have to recruit me because you'll vote me anyway.

I mean out of my voters I think you are the town yeah.
It’s just my most confident town read is Elements.

Why? Like most everyone scumreads Elements and IMHO rightfully so.

[MathBlade]

Key word: Most.

You keep putting actions I am doing in a negative light when all I am doing is stating my thoughts.

I think Elements should be the elim today. (I am warming up to Meg being town)

I don’t see how anyone TRa elements and most of my TRa are at each other’s throats.

Right now you are hampering that communication with negativity.

You keep saying things like “I don’t care” it’s abundantly clear as any alignment I care about flips.

Why in the world are you actively attacking one of your biggest defenders?

[MathBlade]

Mod got back to me apparently there’s no NK so Meg is town.

Still don’t like Elements.

Since I have too many TRs intent to vote Drapion.

[MathBlade]

VOTE: Drapion

[MathBlade]

Mod got back to me apparently there’s no NK so Meg is town.

Still don’t like Elements.

Since I have too many TRs intent to vote Drapion.

Why does that make me town?

Scum you would not make a big deal out of correcting me I don’t think when me misunderstanding is such a big boon for scum.

[MathBlade]

I kinda think Elements makes a good CL but the fact I wasn’t culted means scum might hope I tunnel elements.

I kinda want to see how people open.

[MathBlade]

Roden you may be right and Mala scum but she makes more sense as cult not CL.

I don’t think a CL quick hammers their only buddy like that.

[MathBlade]

Roden you may be right and Mala scum but she makes more sense as cult not CL.

I don’t think a CL quick hammers their only buddy like that.

Who do you think is most likely CL?

I do agree that Mala fits the bill for a recruit target though.

I have a few theories but I want to see who responds to what before giving an overarching view.

[MathBlade]

I think I have a pretty good idea who I wanna flip but I think we are still missing a few people checking in to be sure

[MathBlade]

Explain the TR on Roden please?

[MathBlade]

I don’t agree with your 93 post at all.

[MathBlade]

Where are elements and NK15?

[MathBlade]

Yeah honestly I think our objective here is to figure out who the CL is and make sure they are executed today.
Also make sure to remember that the second cult member might try and save their CL today cause if they don’t they would have a low chance of winning.

My suggestion is to make sure if your town reading someone not to blindly sheep their town reads (I never do) but cause like they could be the second cultist trying to make their CL look good so make sure you have valid reasons for each of your Townreads.

This read way too honest for me. This reads to me like Drapion had a plan to be TR’d early and Drapion is one of those too honest scum that doesn’t know yet how to highlight which points of scum to highlight and which not. This makes me think that Drapion will have never voted the cult leader.

[MathBlade]

The only people Drapion never voted were Gamma and myself. I think if I follow some things properly then we should be able to keep things the same and form a major town block here.

[MathBlade]

I do actually like Elements too but nothing that makes me say “yeah this is town”
But I do think Gamma/Elements are not both aligned together so if Gamma flips wolf then I think Elements is just town.
Although I guess if Gamma isn’t the CL then the CL could convert Elements and no longer make them town but my point is I don’t think they are ever starting wolves.

I think furthermore if my theory that Gamma isn’t CL is correct because of the vote then it’s likely Elements isn’t either because I don’t see any evidence of a planned bus. Maybe a planned conversion of Elements later but this really reads as TMI.

[MathBlade]

The only people Drapion ever voted were Gamma and myself. I think if I follow some things properly then we should be able to keep things the same and form a major town block here.

Edit by way of post: I meant ever voted not never. Autocorrect was drunk.

[MathBlade]

Vote Count 1.03

The fire in your eyes
Keeps me alive

Gamma Emerald (3):

Malakittens, ProfessorDrapion, Fredrick A Campbell

hutmeil (2):

Roden, Elements

ProfessorDrapion (2):

Not Known 15, Gamma Emerald

Not Known 15 (1):

MegAzumarill

Roden (1):

hutmeil

With 9 alive, it's 5 to eliminate.

Deadline for Day 1 is September 28 at 11:00 AM EDT.

Deadline Timer:

(expired on 2022-09-28 11:00:00)

Now looking here given that Drapion flipped cult we have context at this point.

Gamma was wagoned (likely not CL)
Me (likely not CL I mean I know I am not just typing in an unbiased way)
Drapion (wagon)

I think this VC eliminates NK 15 from being cult leader unless it was a planned bus. I find this unlikely as Drapion wouldn’t have left long lasting connections to Gamma and myself. For this reason I don’t think NK15 is cult leader.

[MathBlade]

I think me saying that Gamma's play is +town has a pretty huge effect on that theory. I'm pushing on Drapion, but I also scum read Hutmeil since they've done next to nothing so far and feel frozen.

I will comment on this later.

[MathBlade]

Drapion feels.... weirdly tunneled here. I don't think scum!drapion does this here in a vacuum (especially CL!drapion), but this push feels too off to me for me to call it town.

Drapion is there some context here I might be missing for your Gamma read?

Drapion feels.... weirdly tunneled here. I don't think scum!drapion does this here in a vacuum (especially CL!drapion), but this push feels too off to me for me to call it town.

Drapion is there some context here I might be missing for your Gamma read?

What’s off about my push on Gamma exactly?
Do you not think I bring up good points for my push?

A lot of it puts justification to their actions IF they are scum, but it misses WHY they are scum and not town.

Unless I'm missing something it looks like Gamma is scum is the assumption you started with here

This. 100% now knowing that Drapion is cult then we know that Drapion had an agenda when they started pushing Gamma. Now it is possible that Gamma is CL and Drapion did a planned bus thing I see it as possible in the VCs but I don’t see it here. For this reason and another spicy reason I think Meg is not cult leader.

[MathBlade]

MegAzumarill — eliminated as CL
Malakittens
Roden
MathBlade — me not scum
Elements — established unlikely
ProfessorDrapion — Flipped cult
Fredrick A Campbell
Gamma Emerald — established unlikely
Not Known 15 — established unlikely

This is the pool I see for possible CLs right now.

I strongly disagree with taking Roden out of this pool.

However if after my case you find that Roden is not the CL I will vote somewhere else in my pool.

[MathBlade]

Yes.
One of my voters are definitely a cult and I think it’s Math.

This very much reads to me like Drapion’s CL had the intention of converting me and then driving that bus into the ground. Let’s look at the prior post Drapion had.

[MathBlade]

VOTE: Drapion

I mean I’m not the worst to execute here.
I’m not PR and I’m not cult either.
You’d think it’s obvious cause everyone is voting for me without hesitation.
If I was cult I would have had a real crummy reaction or possibly even PR claimed out off panic to try and survive.

The CL Math is now voting me cause Gamma isn’t, but Gamma probably will again and hammer cause they probably figure they can get away with an ML on me here.

Math’s read on me was fake this entire game it’s not that hard to see.
Y’all can unvote if you want to prevent this ML and vote the CL Math.


Orrrrrrr

Let me die and just get me outta here cause I’m clearly cults priority ML.


But I’ll tell you a legacy here.

After I am ML’ed do not vote Elements and do not vote NK15 before math or Gamma. Vote Meg over Roden.
Oh and if Gamma is actually town I’d vote Mala.

This post was written when Drapion knew he was dying.

This gives insight into what he was thinking. Now combine this with who was on the Drapion wagon.

ProfessorDrapion (5): Not Known 15, Roden, MegAzumarill, MathBlade, Malakittens

Roden and Malakittens are the only viable suspects that meet all the criteria from Drapions play. However I find the soft defenses of Drapion much more compelling as a CL candidate.

[MathBlade]

Now comes the question of who Roden would convert.

If they tried me and failed they would know they would need to buddy me. Especially if they think I am the inconvertible Townie.

This really matches his open and why I wanted to back off and give space to see if someone else was a convert target.

Nothing is striking me now which makes me think he failed the convert.

VOTE: Roden

[MathBlade]

If it can be achieved, I will execute Malakittens, Not Known 15 or Elements this day phase. This decision is not final.

The one exception is maybe Frederick because imho that PoE is terrible.

[MathBlade]

I have to look over it tomorrow but Math acts like a cult recruit, I think.

Interesting. I know this is false but I’d be curious as to why you think that.

[MathBlade]

Oh sweet, I can actually read Math

Vibe of the game so far was that your slot wasn't doing much and seemed frozen. I scum read Drapion independently of Hutmeil, but I read Hutmeil's inaction as scummier. Meg, Elements, and Gamma all seem pretty townie, not sure on Mala and Fred yet. NK15 is a player that I'm waiting for a meta tell before I settle on a read there.

Why no question/comment for Drapion?

Oh sweet you can read me (continues to vote me and shade me)

Then you vote Drapion.

Imho in prior games you were a lot more mobile with your votes.

I think you were forced to vote Drapion by thread pressure and couldn’t back off either way without sacrificing your standing.

[MathBlade]

VOTE: Elements
I get a bad vibe from his Fred vote. Meg’s too but she’s probably not CL.

Can you explain that "bad vibe" a bit more?

Ditto here tbh

Agreed on bad vibe. I don’t think Elements can be CL though

But if a wagon forms again with TRs I will follow onto it like Drapion

Mainly I kinda don’t think any wagon except Fred is on a potential CL candidate though :/

So I am just blah.

[MathBlade]

(Before anyone gets hyper literal I am not counting my vote on Roden as a wagon.)

[MathBlade]

Shade is 176.

Vote was on hutmeil and not moved.

176 => strongly implies you read me as scum.

[MathBlade]

Oh sweet, I can actually read Math

[he is scum because I am voting his slot]

Vibe of the game so far was that your slot wasn't doing much and seemed frozen.

[your slot is scummy]

I scum read Drapion independently of Hutmeil, but I read Hutmeil's inaction as scummier.

Hutmeil = my slot = scummy

Meg, Elements, and Gamma all seem pretty townie, not sure on Mala and Fred yet. NK15 is a player that I'm waiting for a meta tell before I settle on a read there.

Why no question/comment for Drapion?

Fishing trying to connect me with a cultist

I don't see what you are referencing here?

Bold is Emphasis for clarity not in original post

[MathBlade]

Shade is 176.

Vote was on hutmeil and not moved.

176 => strongly implies you read me as scum.

I didn't have a read on you at that point, 176 was in response to your introduction post where you asked my opinion on the game.

Howdy Reading now.

I am so glad to be town for once.

To that end kinda wanna see where everyone’s head’s at:

Meg: Long time no see. Who is your top town and scum read?

Mala: Is this it? The fabled game where we are both town and alive?

Roden: What are your vibes of the game so far?

Elements: Don’t know you that well. What’s your favorite thing about the game so far?

Campbell: Looks like your a strategy guy. Do you have a plan now or more just thinking mechanics?

Gamma: Nice work in the theme game. Gonna see if you have similar vibes. Any strong reads/feels?

NK15: Got any spicy thoughts? Usually you are good but tend to be drowned out so hope you see this and drop a spicy thought or read.

So you claim you can read me, yet didn’t have a read on me?

That’s like a literal contradiction.

[MathBlade]

Because you had to.

If you kept your vote on me too long then I realize you’re scum based on earlier claims.

If you didn’t vote Drapion then people would call you out.

The only place you could move your vote is Drapion

[MathBlade]

You also couldn’t join the Gamma wagon either.

It’s a literal least shitty spot.

[MathBlade]

Like, I could have just kept my vote on you. Multiple people wanted you gone, and instead I defended your slot. You made it clear you didn't want to vote Drapion, and if I was CL and wanted to use that against you I would've made sure Drapion interacted with you in a way that made you look worse so that I could mis-elim you today. The way you're describing my play otherwise makes it sound like you think I just fumbled the game and didn't know what I was doing.

Math...you have to have content before I can read you...

No?

You can have a read from a single post.

It’s actually rather common thing people do on D1

[MathBlade]

Yeah I really don't agree that because I didn't town read you after you wrote a single RQS post that I must be the CL

I get you don’t agree. You wouldn’t agree as either alignment

You said you had a read on me and are taking it back

Words imho at this point are unlikely to convince me from what to me seems a pure logic issue.

I don’t get how people don’t see “I said A”
And “I didn’t say A”

And people somehow still TR you is ridiculous

Likely probably just going to have to settle for a cultist read or backup CL.

[MathBlade]

Spoiler: post 494 by MathBlade

Oh sweet, I can actually read Math

[he is scum because I am voting his slot]

Vibe of the game so far was that your slot wasn't doing much and seemed frozen.

[your slot is scummy]

I scum read Drapion independently of Hutmeil, but I read Hutmeil's inaction as scummier.

Hutmeil = my slot = scummy

Meg, Elements, and Gamma all seem pretty townie, not sure on Mala and Fred yet. NK15 is a player that I'm waiting for a meta tell before I settle on a read there.

Why no question/comment for Drapion?

Fishing trying to connect me with a cultist

I don't see what you are referencing here?

Bold is Emphasis for clarity not in original post

Oh sweet, I can actually read Math

[Roden can read MathBlade]

Vibe of the game so far was that your slot wasn't doing much and seemed frozen.

[hutmeil was not doing much and seemed frozen]

I scum read Drapion independently of Hutmeil, but I read Hutmeil's inaction as scummier.

Meg, Elements, and Gamma all seem pretty townie, not sure on Mala and Fred yet. NK15 is a player that I'm waiting for a meta tell before I settle on a read there.

Why no question/comment for Drapion?

[Why didn't you address Drapion in your post?]

Bold is my interpretation of Roden's post.

Also, I think Roden decided to read you disregarding hutmeil's actions.

I really don’t see that interpretation at all.

It really feels like I am being gaslit here.

I will just hunt for cultist I guess since CL is off the table. Maybe I will be wrong again and it turn out right.

[MathBlade]

Every interaction Math seems to have is him saying something about someone, them disagreeing, and him still saying that's what happened. I don't understand

It’s pretty simple

I say so and so said a logical fact.

Someone else disagrees and says that’s not what they said.

I read the post again and still see the logical fact.

It’s like if you say a post has the word “the” in it

Someone else says “no the post doesn’t”

I reread it and still see the word “the”

No amount of telling me it’s not there makes it disappear.

It only feels like gaslighting

[MathBlade]

I didn't take back a read on you. Like there's nothing else to say here, what you're seeing here is a completely foreign interpretation of what actually happened.

What I'm understanding is that because I didn't unvote Hutmeil after you replaced in, you think that I scum read you as well. If that's the case, that's something I can understand. If not, I don't know what to say, I can't argue with something that I know didn't happen.

Repeating this repeatedly is toxic af to the game

I will just go after you tomorrow when we don’t flip the CL today because we cant

[MathBlade]

You don't have any other players you think could be CL?

I have them in my PoE but no where near as likely.

I get other people disagree but I don’t see how

I say 2+2 = 4 I get told it is 5

I can’t just “believe” it’s 5.

That’s how I feel.

[MathBlade]

MegAzumarill — eliminated as CL
Malakittens
Roden
MathBlade — me not scum
Elements — established unlikely
ProfessorDrapion — Flipped cult
Fredrick A Campbell
Gamma Emerald — established unlikely
Not Known 15 — established unlikely

This is the pool I see for possible CLs right now.

I strongly disagree with taking Roden out of this pool.

However if after my case you find that Roden is not the CL I will vote somewhere else in my pool.

Possible CL pool to me

As I said will move on but I really think Roden is cult here

[MathBlade]

This is a prod dodge as I have work stuff.

I think the argument I am the recruit is horribly flawed. Will discuss later.

Rest I haven’t read

[MathBlade]

Comments in bold and in-line because mobile.
Bold italics is NK15 original bold text

We all can say with confidence that Mathblade isn't CL.
So Mathblade was Town Day 1.

I kinda think Elements makes a good CL but the fact I wasn’t culted means scum might hope I tunnel elements.

I kinda want to see how people open.

This is " I think X but". We saw this on Drapion, who flipped Cult.

While factually correct, I find this misleading. I form hypothesis and test them. My prior hypothesis were wrong, so I go back and retest them.

Premise 1: I am town.
Premise 2: I was not converted.
Premise 3: Either A) I was targeted for conversion and failed or b) wasn’t targeted.
Premise 4: If premise three B is true If I wasn’t targeted for conversion (option B) then there is likely some other threat more important. Therefore Elements is not likely CL.
Premise 5: If premise three A) then reads were correct.

Conclusion: Since I was wrong about prior reads and reevaluating it is unlikely I would be culted. So it’s much more likely Elements is not CL.

This is how I operate. What’s meant by that if is a way of backpedaling. My if->then statements are not structured as such. Ergo your statement is correct but misleading.

Yeah honestly I think our objective here is to figure out who the CL is and make sure they are executed today.
Also make sure to remember that the second cult member might try and save their CL today cause if they don’t they would have a low chance of winning.

My suggestion is to make sure if your town reading someone not to blindly sheep their town reads (I never do) but cause like they could be the second cultist trying to make their CL look good so make sure you have valid reasons for each of your Townreads.

This read way too honest for me. This reads to me like Drapion had a plan to be TR’d early and Drapion is one of those too honest scum that doesn’t know yet how to highlight which points of scum to highlight and which not. This makes me think that Drapion will have never voted the cult leader.

Yeah no. That assessment is actually made out of thin air. All rests on the unsubstantiated "Drapion is one of those too honest scum"; and even if it was honest it might have been something Drapion wanted to

avoid doing

because they knew it.

It is not out of “thin air”. It’s made up three criteria. 1) My extensive experience in scum and seeing how people play scum differently. A moderately/experienced scum will use truth as a weapon. A newer scum tends to try to “mimick” town play. In other words a new scum makes it about avoiding elim but a moderate/experienced player makes it about controlling gamestate and emotions. 2) The meta of Drapion is that he’s more on the abrasive/literal side. This again means that directly lies would not be in his wheelhouse. 3) Based on combining 1 and 2 Drapion being a traditionally honest player means that somewhere is likely too honest. That paragraph stood out to me as that point reading it by tone.

I do actually like Elements too but nothing that makes me say “yeah this is town”
But I do think Gamma/Elements are not both aligned together so if Gamma flips wolf then I think Elements is just town.
Although I guess if Gamma isn’t the CL then the CL could convert Elements and no longer make them town but my point is I don’t think they are ever starting wolves.

I think furthermore if my theory that Gamma isn’t CL is correct because of the vote then it’s likely Elements isn’t either because I don’t see any evidence of a planned bus. Maybe a planned conversion of Elements later but this really reads as TMI.

This is some next level BS because this rests on "there was a bus" which we have no credible evidence for. It took a lot for Drapion to be limmed.
The "elements is town" case is, again, made out of thin air.

Fun fact when I get off work, I can expand on this in more depth but it is very likely (based on statistics) 1-2 scum are on the Drapion wagon. Is it absolutely certain, no, but towns work with the most probable thing to win.

Yes.
One of my voters are definitely a cult and I think it’s Math.

This very much reads to me like Drapion’s CL had the intention of converting me and then driving that bus into the ground. Let’s look at the prior post Drapion had.

Why would Math assume that the CL would try to convert them? Maybe because it succeeded?

You’re welcome to make that assumption but I think if you take a step back and keep up with the thread you’ll find it very wrong. I have played in plenty a cult and scum game. Starting from what we know, everything after the hammer from Malakittens is wine. It was all deliberate rapid fire. It’s designed to make us look off wagon so we absolutely should look exactly where Drapion said to.

Now comes the question of who Roden would convert.

If they tried me and failed they would know they would need to buddy me. Especially if they think I am the inconvertible Townie.

This really matches his open and why I wanted to back off and give space to see if someone else was a convert target.

Nothing is striking me now which makes me think he failed the convert.

VOTE: Roden

This is again, Math's scum bullshit mode meta.
This rests on the assumption that Roden failed to convert(something that is not likely from the position of a VT). It also rests on "no one else has been converted".

And I believe I have established the reasons for those premises reading in combination and between the lines of what has been said. I strongly believe I wasn’t converted. Either because I lied and I am not VT or because I believe someone else was or I believe in a certain PR world. I don’t care to elaborate which as this is scum’s problem to keep up with.

If it can be achieved, I will execute Malakittens, Not Known 15 or Elements this day phase. This decision is not final.

The one exception is maybe Frederick because imho that PoE is terrible.

Backed up by exactly nothing.

My PoE of who could and could not be cult leader was available and combining that with the PoE demonstrates that. This is a lie.

VOTE: Elements
I get a bad vibe from his Fred vote. Meg’s too but she’s probably not CL.

Can you explain that "bad vibe" a bit more?

Ditto here tbh

Agreed on bad vibe. I don’t think Elements can be CL though

But if a wagon forms again with TRs I will follow onto it like Drapion

Mainly I kinda don’t think any wagon except Fred is on a potential CL candidate though :/

So I am just blah.

We have to remove the CL. So this is a soft defense of Elements.
That isn't the only telling thing though, here!
Remember what Math said before?

Nothing is striking me now which makes me think he failed the convert.

But if that thing would give them a bad vibe, and element isn't CL, they could be the convert, right?
However, Mathblade never backs down from that theory:

Admittedly I do tunnel at times but it’s because a foundational premise isn’t being answered. Everyone does this it’s a matter of how concrete they are with their premises. If a prior premise is proven false (Eg with Drapion flipping scum) then I look at two things

1) Where was I wrong
2) What actions would scum take.

Having lost a member they would need to ensure a recruit.

Therefore if the CL was widely TRd they’d hit a lurker or someone who is destructive but expendable. I fit the second criteria with reads wrong.

If the CL was not widely TRd then they would need a mid tier town for support. 1) to avoid a Jailkeep if it exists and 2) to give enough support.

So that’s why I think Roden as a CL works

I also think by play you’re an excellent CL as you’re really not reading some posts in depth with a Townie mindset.I need to reread why I excluded you from CL and Roden convert.

I didn't take back a read on you. Like there's nothing else to say here, what you're seeing here is a completely foreign interpretation of what actually happened.

What I'm understanding is that because I didn't unvote Hutmeil after you replaced in, you think that I scum read you as well. If that's the case, that's something I can understand. If not, I don't know what to say, I can't argue with something that I know didn't happen.

Repeating this repeatedly is toxic af to the game

I will just go after you tomorrow when we don’t flip the CL today because we cant

Well, that was not what I was expecting....
but Mathblade has spewed themselves as the convert... and Elements as Cult Leader.
Every time Mathblade said loads of massive BS it was when scum-pushing someone, with one exception. Elements.

I kinda think Elements makes a good CL but the fact I wasn’t culted means scum might hope I tunnel elements.

I kinda want to see how people open.

This is also telling us that Elements is Mathblade's CL: Math is trying to establish a thought progression here, but on Day 1 Math said:

180 is how I form reads

Scum rarely if ever do relational reads or feel where the vibes are

So I make hypothesis and test them

I was evidently wrong on that one post (458) coming from town.
VOTE: Elements

[MathBlade]

Why are there so many blank votes? And what's the case on Elements?

I really don’t like this very empty post from Roden.

They’re a wall poster.

My eyes aren’t crying from the amount of words then it pings me.

[MathBlade]

Part of it may be the two days away but I have trouble finding convincing reason to not shoot between the unspewed quiets..(Mala, Frederick, and Elements)

Elements is still my least favorite shot out of the three. I don't really see the MO they are going for here if they are CL.

I think that of those I would pick Fredrick but I think more than likely we should be aiming on the wagon. (I am not counting Mala as she never made a long term case.

I think it’s much safer to hit in could but CL or cult and I find that if we get a cult instead of CL (I know we really want CL) then we know that if a cop exists their results are true for that day and if a jailkeep exists then they have a perma inno and the pool shrinks.

Then if hypothetically at elo if the jailkeep gets converted we ask for crumbs of who they protected and we get their inno regardless. And if not they refuse then we know they are cult and elo is that much easier and we look for crumbs ourselves.

I like to play town to give scum no good options.

I also tend to think that if a player hates being scum they’d try to recruit me for tips. So hence another reason I don’t like how your PoE is Meg.

If we narrow all the possibilities then scum can’t do anything.

[MathBlade]

NK15, your case doesn't really tie in much from elements (or anything at all) that makes you think they are CL.

Even if you are right on Mathblade being the recruit I don't see how that makes Elements CL.

It does because the only math townread that is full of BS is Elements and because of what I said below the second-last quote in my case post.

I still really prefer hunting for CL first then working the way down. I also think even Math's day 1 in isolation ia inconsiatant at points so I'm hesitant to be certain on your math case since I don't think their play has changed a huge amount

Please share these inconsistencies you are seeing.

See: My scumcase of Mathblade day 1

Looked at it. That is a playstyle clash with a bit of tunnelling on Math's part. An 1v1 with tunnely behaviour is not the same as pushing multiple BS reads(their scumreads, and the Elements townread).

You said I am town on D1. I know I was town and still am town.

Therefore on D1 I was not pushing BS reads. They may be horribly explained or if you find a flaw illogical but not BS reads. Therefore the playstyle clash d1 being because of BS reads or same style demonstrates I am town no?

[MathBlade]

This is a prod dodge as I have work stuff.

I think the argument I am the recruit is horribly flawed. Will discuss later.

Rest I haven’t read

This is a scummy post.

how?

Me:Scumcase against Math,pointing to Elements as scum, too.
Math:"I think the argument I am the recruit is horribly flawed "
Does this look like a town reaction to you?

To me, yes.

It finds your premise, “Math is the recruit and therefore Elements is CL” and addresses “Math is the recruit premise”

You’re more than welcome to argue that Elements is the CL if you wish to do so in a logical manner.

I don’t tell people to think a certain way. I present my evidence and why I think the way I do.

I know the premise I am the recruit is factually wrong so I started there so you (if town) can adjust perspective and see if you reach the same or different criteria based on that changing.

[MathBlade]

Ok, no. Drapion was pushing Math too much, including at E-1. Way too much risk if Math was CL.
So it's now indeed between Mala and Elements

That's what Math says about Mala.

Roden and Malakittens are the only viable suspects that meet all the criteria from Drapions play. However I find the soft defenses of Drapion much more compelling as a CL candidate..

MegAzumarill — eliminated as CL
Malakittens
Roden
MathBlade — me not scum
Elements — established unlikely
ProfessorDrapion — Flipped cult
Fredrick A Campbell
Gamma Emerald — established unlikely
Not Known 15 — established unlikely

This is the pool I see for possible CLs right now.

I strongly disagree with taking Roden out of this pool.

However if after my case you find that Roden is not the CL I will vote somewhere else in my pool.

Possible CL pool to me

As I said will move on but I really think Roden is cult here

and this.


Contrasting, elements...

I kinda think Elements makes a good CL but the fact I wasn’t culted means scum might hope I tunnel elements.

I kinda want to see how people open.

OR Math was converted and Elements is scum. This is coming after Math pushing Elements Day 1, and saying (Day 1):

180 is how I form reads

I do actually like Elements too but nothing that makes me say “yeah this is town”
But I do think Gamma/Elements are not both aligned together so if Gamma flips wolf then I think Elements is just town.
Although I guess if Gamma isn’t the CL then the CL could convert Elements and no longer make them town but my point is I don’t think they are ever starting wolves.

I think furthermore if my theory that Gamma isn’t CL is correct because of the vote then it’s likely Elements isn’t either because I don’t see any evidence of a planned bus. Maybe a planned conversion of Elements later but this really reads as TMI.

That's a BS reading of this. If (TOWN) flips wolf then (SCUMPARTNER) is town is a classic move to drive attention away from (SCUMPARTNER) for a day, making them survive more(which can be absolutely critical if that scumpartner is CL!), and that assumes that Gamma does go down. It's early day stuff.

VOTE: Elements
I get a bad vibe from his Fred vote. Meg’s too but she’s probably not CL.

Can you explain that "bad vibe" a bit more?

Ditto here tbh

Agreed on bad vibe. I don’t think Elements can be CL though

But if a wagon forms again with TRs I will follow onto it like Drapion

Mainly I kinda don’t think any wagon except Fred is on a potential CL candidate though :/

So I am just blah.

This was part of the stuff why Math is scum - their "logic" makes no sense at all, first saying "probably no convert", then "Bad vibes but probably not CL", and then continuing pushing Roden backed by the now obsolete argument "probably no convert". That is stitched together instead of natural progression.
And that also means that "bad vibes but probably not CL" is a defense, and guess why.

Now I am going to do votecount analysis.

I am not even seeing your premises to address them

Elements made a good CL based on vibes.

I see the entire game disagreeing with me in the exact same manner as D1

Hence me being blah about it and disconnected.

[MathBlade]

Part of it may be the two days away but I have trouble finding convincing reason to not shoot between the unspewed quiets..(Mala, Frederick, and Elements)

Elements is still my least favorite shot out of the three. I don't really see the MO they are going for here if they are CL.

I think that of those I would pick Fredrick but I think more than likely we should be aiming on the wagon. (I am not counting Mala as she never made a long term case.

I think it’s much safer to hit in could but CL or cult and I find that if we get a cult instead of CL (I know we really want CL) then we know that if a cop exists their results are true for that day and if a jailkeep exists then they have a perma inno and the pool shrinks.

Then if hypothetically at elo if the jailkeep gets converted we ask for crumbs of who they protected and we get their inno regardless. And if not they refuse then we know they are cult and elo is that much easier and we look for crumbs ourselves.

I like to play town to give scum no good options.

I also tend to think that if a player hates being scum they’d try to recruit me for tips. So hence another reason I don’t like how your PoE is Meg.

If we narrow all the possibilities then scum can’t do anything.

1. Why would Jailkeeper have crumbed targets? I don't see any reason why they would.
2. I don't think the people on the wagon are likely to be aligned with Drapion (maybe NK15, but I do think thwir recent push on you is coming from town.) Shooting with the intention to hit cultist is basically all WIFOM
3. Scum is incentivised to not recruit you regardless
4. I feel like my PoE is still correct for CL.


Looking to hear why you think we should be limming on wagon though

1. I think it’s more habit or accidental than anything else. But maybe I am wrong *shrug* it’s how I read things. Maybe I need reading glasses or something.

2. I think the majority are town (factually true because even if CL on convert on 3>2 or equal if you don’t count Mala) but I don’t think it’s exclusively off wagon as that makes for an incredibly hard D2 with forced bussing and increased scrutiny on the CL. With a shitty D1, I don’t think scum sign up for a double or nothing.

3. I disagree with this premise for reasons stated. Please explain.

4. Okay how did you get there? I don’t see how.

[MathBlade]

Back to work for me but will check later tonight

[MathBlade]

Tldr why would they recruit a vt claim
thats dumb

I think you and I prioritize the cult and scum differently.

You’re thinking in terms of threat/survival instead of long term play.

I think cult would go “Sure it’s great if we hit cop/JK” (if they exist) but it’s more important to get a recruit off especially if CL isn’t suspected.

Hitting cop/JK is more a priority before mass claim.

Also cop/JK (but not inconvertible Townie) can self elim at e-1 to confirm results and sink scum.

If cop/JK hasn’t flipped they’re almost required.

[MathBlade]

As for 4:
Roden: The most major factor in the drapion lim actually going through imo. Unnecessary for him to do as CL.
You: Drapion E-1'd you with clear intent to kill. They much prefer their own lim over yours if they are cl.
Gamma: Obvious tunnel by drapion on cl feels incredibly unlikely. Possibly recruit, but almost certainly not CL.
Nk15: This is still POE technically, but would have been a harder buss to pull off if it was one. I have started liking their content as the game went on leaving me comfortable with leaving them out of POE.
Meg: wait thats me
Rest are in POE

I disagree Roden as being influential there at all.

They’re way too quiet for my tastes and do a lot more readwalls and active pushes.

[MathBlade]

He’s*

Sorry for misgendering

[MathBlade]

why would JK self-elim, at least with CL alive
or a cop with a clear for that matter

JK could still stop a recruit action, and if the cop has a clear selfing would just get the clear recruited

The above assumes CL dead

If we don’t have CL dead at e-1 then more than likely cop/JK was recruited and it’s useless. I should have been explicit with that assumption.

It’s more that at e-1 town will have 6 alive with 2 cult alive
Or
At e-1 is 4 alive with 1 cult left

For the 6 alive case we have N1 (8 alive) N2 (7 alive) n3 (6 alive) then D4

So cop/JK will have 3 results. 6 alive. Unless we coincidentally elimmed a lot of those checks we will be in a good place.

Even more checks on the 4 alive version.

[MathBlade]

Here’s a hypothetical example with the top six players in the player list to make things easier to follow and not dependent on reads

MegAzumarill - JK
Malakittens — Cult
Roden — Cult
MathBlade hutmeil town
Elements town
Fred town

Gamma town and NK15 cult leader in this example and are dead.

Meg the JK on N1 decides to jail I dunno me just to be random. NK15 recruits Roden.
D2 we elim Gamma flips town. Jailkeeps elements. NK15 recruits Mala.
Then N2 jails NK15. No recruit.
D3 NK15 is elimmed. Flips cult leader.

At that point Meg the jailkeeper because the game isn’t over that 1-2 of the converts were a success.

If assuming two converts it is therefore elo. Then both of her jailkeeps are innos.

If it is not elo then one of the two attempts to convert were also stopping things which makes them de facto innos.

So likely than not elements and myself would be town in that world.

[MathBlade]

Jailkeep innos become stronger the longer a cult leader is alive weirdly enough

Cop innos become stronger if we get the CL sooner

Granted I hope the CL gets elimmed sooner but I think we don’t have the elim pool for that.

[MathBlade]

If we can get the CL today and unconverted cop
Then N1 check
D2 elim CL
N2 check
D3 cop claims with results as scum can do Jack all — 7 alive. 2 known results. Max one cult. Outs N1 and N2 results. If any scum then last scum is in cop claim and guilty GG. Otherwise we are at 2 conf town and cop + 3 other town remaining. Elim in 3, check another

Next day is two conf town remaining cop and two others. Cop if gets guilty it’s GG elim one or the other. So cop provides an inno. Elim the other remaining Townie.

If game continues 2 confirmed town and cop and one other. Cop is going to say a guilty. Elim cop elim other

Two Townies remain.

So if we get CL today cop is instant win even if cop is converted.

JK works similar but loads more complicated.

[MathBlade]

?? I am confused. What chance needed to explain was not already here?

[MathBlade]

What specifically gives you doubt?

[MathBlade]

What specifically gives you doubt?

All of these together.

My refutation of your case gives you doubt? Why? What about it?

[MathBlade]

Vote Count 2.05

Well, the night, it rise above you, rise above me
And the blues, they swirl around me

Malakittens (4):

MegAzumarill, Fredrick A Campbell, Elements, Not Known 15

Elements (3):

Gamma Emerald, Malakittens, Roden

Roden (1):

MathBlade

With 8 alive, it's 5 to eliminate.

Deadline for Day 1 is October 7 at 9:00 PM EDT.

Deadline Timer:

(expired on 2022-10-07 21:00:00)

Elements was at e-1 I forget the fourth.

I find it more likely the cult was gathered on elements especially if Elements is town.

[MathBlade]

Oh wait probably Nk-15

This looks like claim shopping lemme double check.

[MathBlade]

I feel like I'm falling off a bit this game, sorry

I don't want to vote Elements because of their D1 play and interactions with other players, I just don't get the vibe that they're the CL. However I don't really have a compelling case besides my vibe read. Meanwhile NK15's case seems genuine, it clashes with my read but I think I could just be wrong on Elements. NK15 is town by meta, so I'm willing to follow him here since I do feel like Mala's been townier today anyway.

VOTE: Elements

E - 1 at this point is Gamma Mala Roden NK15 (no particular order)

Meg intents to hammer

Elements claims VT.

Then NK15 gets a bad feeling.

This bad feeling is either A) genuine and NK15 doesn’t like the wagon composition
Or
B) NK15 is not being genuine which means they don’t want the elim to go through.

This is either B1) Elements and NK15 are on the same team
B2) NK15 is scum and Elements is town.

The NK15 town case pretty straightforward unlikely to me because why the bad feeling over a VT claim? That doesn’t make sense to me. It’s what everyone expects a CL to claim. NK’s argument I was convincing feels buddying when they didn’t say why in depth despite numerous prods.

This to me leaves the option B) NK15 is scum more likely to me.

The question becomes why.

If NK15 and elements were paired then I think we would have seen more effort or collaboration here.

This leads me to B2) being the most likely.

It’s for this reason I don’t want Malakittens and think the wagon is mostly scum on elements and where we as a group would look if Elements flipped town.

I think that the Mala wagon is town on town crime.

I know this is a bit self confirming my prior theory NK15 and Roden but I really think they’re both scum.

[MathBlade]

That being said I think forcing another claim out of Mala is absolutely the wrong way to go here. We have a claim

We need to decide as a group if we believe elements or not before just running up someone else to keep the PR hidden (unless your friendly PR lied) but probably a good idea to sort out elements before going forward.

If and only if we think elements is town should we run up someone else.

[MathBlade]

Why don't you want mala to be limmed, Math?

Pretty sure I literally just explained that.
I think we should sort elements first.

If we think Elements is town then move on.

But unless we are not 100% sure then elim elements is the right call to avoid the slippery slope of mass claim early.

[MathBlade]

To be clear I think Elements is town but I am not like OMG scream it sure.

[MathBlade]

Lots of premises that lead to vibes that the probability is more likely than not that Elements is town but it doesn’t meet Math go yell levels.

[MathBlade]

Not exposing us to more risk than absolutely necessary and mutually agreed upon.

[MathBlade]

You’re not hearing me. It’s not a binary.

What I am saying is it’s a discussion we need to have and not speed run it.

And yes a claim would be disastrous here.

For a moment assume I am truthtelling

Assume Elements town I am town
Assume Mala is VT

Then cult has a very very narrow window to hit the PRs.
We are at 8 alive -3 (elements, myself, Mala) -2 cult (unknown who) = 3

That means 1/3 chance to hit the cop.
Leaving it here means 1/4 which means maybe one more day.

So I don’t want any unneeded claims. If town agrees then we do it knowing the risks.

[MathBlade]

Limming CL now is an autowin in the cop setup without a cop convert
Limming CL now is not an autowin in the JK setup because the JK cannot be trusted, but 6:1 Nightless is still very good.
Limming CL now is an autowin in the 2x Unrecruitable Townie setup.

If we get to Day 3, unless there was no convert on Night 1 and/or Night 2, we have 3 cult trying to stop a CL lim.
Including one that was town and might be trusted.
Limming CL then is likely a win in the cop setup if the cop isn't converted,
but in the JK or converted person setup, it's not so good.
And 2x Unrecruitable is no longer an autowin and actually allows an Unrecruitable fakeclaim.

None of this is relevant to Mala over elements

It’s mechanical garbage

Why are you forcing something dangerously close to claim?

If you continue to push this issue without stopping and thinking I can and will tunnel you.

[MathBlade]

To be clear some/most of it is likely true

It’s garbage in the sheer fact it’s antitown and doesn’t help.

[MathBlade]

To be clear some/most of it is likely true

It’s garbage in the sheer fact it’s antitown and doesn’t help.

You said that we shouldn't switch to Mala because claims would be terrible.
I refuted it, and you say that some/most of my refutation is likely true....
and then you say "it's antitown and doesn't help".
How does that make sense? If my refutation can help us go past your refuted argument that making Mala claim would be not worth the risk if we aren't absolutely sure that elements was town then that helps town.

You did not “refute it”

You said a lot of irrelevant mech spec.

The irrelevant mech spec is antitown and causes apathy.

You just ignored my points and said a lot of mech that didn’t address the heart of what I am saying.

I encourage you to step away and reread what I said.

[MathBlade]

There's the alternative approach of keeping it at 3/3 and forcing scum to take a coinflip or act if they are S/T (which feels likely)

I don't really like it though and kind of is a waste of time, but potentially has merit

You’re not hearing me. It’s not a binary.

What I am saying is it’s a discussion we need to have and not speed run it.

And yes a claim would be disastrous here.

For a moment assume I am truthtelling

Assume Elements town I am town
Assume Mala is VT

Then cult has a very very narrow window to hit the PRs.
We are at 8 alive -3 (elements, myself, Mala) -2 cult (unknown who) = 3

That means 1/3 chance to hit the cop.
Leaving it here means 1/4 which means maybe one more day.

So I don’t want any unneeded claims. If town agrees then we do it knowing the risks.

Ok but I don't think cult recruits a town!Mala regardless

If Mala is unrecruitable, that's honestly probably fine
If mala is JK/Cop that's bad
If Mala is VT there's no real change unless scum were real confident in a cop!Mala or somethin weird like that

The odds this hurts town are less than the purely statistical odds of mala being scum so I don't think this checks out

Post says “Assume Mala VT”
Response says “Mala isn’t likely cult”

Response doesn’t go through my argument? Like this is a nonsequitur

[MathBlade]

Mathblade, between Elements and Mala which do you think is the better lim

Strategically Elements.

I don’t think either is the CL so if this has to be the choice I would pick Elements here. I think an Elements flip gives more to us to solve with. I’d rather not force another claim when the only argument I see for Mala scum is she is lurking.

If I have to pick between the two it would be elements because unless someone presents an airtight case flipping Elements is the best play for town.

[MathBlade]

I am kinda hoping for a flash wagon here maybe to NK15 or Roden but I don’t think anyone wants them. Those two the case is strong enough for to where a claim would be warranted but not on just “she’s lurking”.

[MathBlade]

There isn't a need for a claim I suppose so might as well avoid it.

Don't think it does as much harm as you suggest but this is still a good elim

Kinda where I am at.

Going to give until after work before hammering.

And btw I still consider NK15 on this wagon for analysis.

[MathBlade]

Okay hammer without giving people a chance.

That’s sus as fuck.

Can like no one else see what I do here with NK15/Roden?

[MathBlade]

A chance for what? Elements already claimed and NK15 wanted them dead days ago. The only other option is running up Mala, and it looked like we don't want to force any more claims today.

A chance to give a case on Mala and respond to the suggestion. You don’t just hammer out of no where.

There was absolutely no harm in waiting for people to come online.

You defending NK15 is ewwww.

Rapid hammers = bad = mafia 101

It was openly expected that I hammer.

Then despite his “bad feelings” NK15 hammers

What part of that is good?

[MathBlade]

Further reinforces that NK15’s “bad vibes” weren’t genuine

That reads like exasperation.

[MathBlade]

Okay hammer without giving people a chance.

That’s sus as fuck.

Can like no one else see what I do here with NK15/Roden?

Disagree on Roden

Why? He’s advocating for obvious scum here?

[MathBlade]

Cop here.
Night 1: Campbell town.
Night 2: Mathblade town.

Cop game means elo if true

I am town right now but this can be true no CC and NK converted.

This claim didn’t help unless we got CL.

We need to flip CL today else NK will be cult either tomorrow or already is.

[MathBlade]

We flipped cultist D1. This cannot be elo. This claim was absolutely premature.

[MathBlade]

Oh wait yes it can if two cults successful

But yeah I think NK is evil and cult got the PR. I doubt a CC and this just pretty much confirms NK evil to me.

[MathBlade]

I do have to hand it to NK. If NK is scum that claim is remarkably consistent and the only reason I am willing to consider them town right now.

@NK why the hammer swap?

[MathBlade]

We flipped cultist D1. This cannot be elo. This claim was absolutely premature.

Cult has 2 recruit nights ergo 3 cult now.

3v4

Cult have daytalk.
The Cult cannot have more than three living players.
If the Cult Leader dies, the Cult does not gain another Cult Leader.
The Generated Cultist and Recruited Cultists have the same flip.
Cult Roleblocker resolves before Town Jailkeeper, but after Town Rolestopper. (Town Rolestopper > Cult Roleblocker > Town Jailkeeper)
All other actions are resolved using Natural_Action_Resolution.
Eliminations are compulsive; there is no option to no-eliminate.
If there is no majority at deadline, the elimination will be decided by plurality. Ties will be broken via randomization.
Cult wins if they achieve parity with the town. Town wins by wiping out the cult.

Cult CAN recruit into parity

I see nothing here that says they can’t,

[MathBlade]

I think we kind of have to assume NK is town here much as his play was so scummy.

Voting Roden in spirit

[MathBlade]

Actually no that doesn’t work either

Fuck I am completely confused

My gut really tells me NK is the CL.

But if wrong we’re fucked

[MathBlade]

If we have to elim CL that changes thinga but I could have sworn cult couldnt recruit into parity

I’d love if that’s true but the sample PM says “or nothing can stop that from happening”.

If we happen to not hit CL today and don’t lose then we know cult failed once which means that it’s likely JK was culted and NK scum though.

[MathBlade]

Well no cult would have to have failed twice not to lose lmao this is so elo.

[MathBlade]

If they failed once we could hit cultist and survive, which would mean exactly CL:NK15 i think

It would mean NK 15 scum not necessarily CL.

But I think we do have to sort NK or decide if he trust his info or not.

[MathBlade]

His ISO is consistent with TRing Campbell the whole time.

I doubt NK would be recruited last night given how sus NK was.

So we’d be looking at NK CL or NK culted N1 and the PR culted.

[MathBlade]

Vote Count 1.08

I'm a wolf child, baby
And I'm howlin' for you

ProfessorDrapion (5):

Not Known 15, Roden, MegAzumarill, MathBlade, Malakittens

Not Known 15 (2):

Fredrick A Campbell, Elements

MathBlade (1):

ProfessorDrapion

Fredrick A Campbell (1):

Gamma Emerald

With 9 alive, it took 5 to eliminate.

Assume NK is town. Then myself, Campbell, and NK are town. Elements is town.

Then either A) The CL bussed Drapion as I thought earlier or B) Gamma is the CL.

[MathBlade]

Vote Count 2.08

Elements (5):

Gamma Emerald, Malakittens, Roden, MegAzumarill, Not Known 15

Malakittens (2):

Fredrick A Campbell, Elements

Roden (1):

MathBlade

With 8 alive, it took 5 to eliminate.

Assume NK town then all the cult combined on Elements.

This means Mala is likely cult of some kind.

So regardless of NK’s alignment Mala is some kind of cult.

[MathBlade]

Never fear! I am here!

Cool can you be town?

[MathBlade]

Thankfully

Have you read the game?

[MathBlade]

Assume NK scum, NK scum quick hammered to stop me from changing my mind. That one is pretty straightforward and implied earlier.

And if town Mala all cult wouldn’t combine and create a stalemate. So yeah Mala is scum either way.

[MathBlade]

Thankfully

Have you read the game?

Nope. Should I? Normally I'm opposed but this is a short one.

Considering it’s likely elo, yes you should.

[MathBlade]

I really wish we had flipped Roden yesterday.

Spiritual vote Mala

[MathBlade]

@NK why the hammer swap?

Because of the alternatives, and Campbell.
Malakittens just didn't have the votes behind it. Campbell said:

I am not sure Elements is town. I agree with MathBlade that we should find Elements guilty if we are not sure whether Elements is town.

Campbell was also at Malakittens at that time.
Meg(previously voting Mala) had switched to Elements.
My arguments didn't convince anyone present, including Campbell.
The Mala wagon had not sufficient backing behind it.
So, either Elements would have succeeded anyways, or, if not, it would have most likely been derailed into myself or my inno, Campbell.

Would you vote Mala now?

[MathBlade]

Assume NK scum, NK scum quick hammered to stop me from changing my mind. That one is pretty straightforward and implied earlier.

And if town Mala all cult wouldn’t combine and create a stalemate. So yeah Mala is scum either way.

Fuck off math

Please

Seriously tho

Still not proving me wrong. You wanna do something protown?

And I love the idea you want me to get a GF

[MathBlade]

Would you vote Mala now?

No. If I was wrong about Mala being CL the cult would just pile on and we would lose. We need to find the CL. I need to go and re-read everything to look what I missed, with the knowledge that you and Elements are town.

What changed to make Mala CL yesterday but not today?

[MathBlade]

Copy
Hide
Bus Drive
Block
Redirect
Protect
Miscellaneous
Kill
Recruit
Inspect

From NAR. OP says NAR is used.

If you want to push me scum NK15 has to be scum.
Me town NK15 can be either

[MathBlade]

@Johnny I was talking about a previous game with Galron and Drapion but Lost applies as well. Games blur together after a while.

And for your other question, I am not sure but am waiting to see how it plays out.

[MathBlade]

We have to hit CL if we don’t have a JK that saved a convert. (Which makes NK scum)

I think odds of this are pretty low but I think someone crumbed JK so I want to play this slow to see if that low odds is possible.

If not then me and NK are probably town but I just want to remove that icky feeling

[MathBlade]

I mean I don't really see much of a viable alternative.

Who would you say is Cult Leader?

It's between you/roden/fred

Again:

I thought fred was the cop hence me backing off D2.
I have to reexamine

unless drap really bussed roden I don't think its roden

which leaves me between u/fred

at least in my POV

This is why I don’t think you’re town. CL is another issue altogether.

If you think NK15 is town then Fred can’t be CL as Fred would be town on N1 which is impossible for CL.

[MathBlade]

Life's a bit hectic atm but I'll do what I can to post.

Not shocked at all by the Cop claim, NK15 was pretty openly soft claiming it yesterday. If I saw it then the Cult definitely saw it, and I feel pretty confident that him claiming to have checked Math last night just means he got recruited. Math doesn't make sense as a Cop check, nobody really thought he was the CL on D2 and NK15 had instead heavily suspected Mala. I don't think it makes any sense to want to elim Mala yesterday but then Cop check a consensus town read. Though it makes perfect sense to do so as a Cult recruit, because telling us that a town read is town is better than claiming anything about Mala's alignment.

Interesting. What softs did you think you saw?

I was thinking someone else softed Jailkeeper.

I really don’t see how you get NK was softing cop.

Can you go into that more?

[MathBlade]

Life's a bit hectic atm but I'll do what I can to post.

Not shocked at all by the Cop claim, NK15 was pretty openly soft claiming it yesterday. If I saw it then the Cult definitely saw it, and I feel pretty confident that him claiming to have checked Math last night just means he got recruited. Math doesn't make sense as a Cop check, nobody really thought he was the CL on D2 and NK15 had instead heavily suspected Mala. I don't think it makes any sense to want to elim Mala yesterday but then Cop check a consensus town read. Though it makes perfect sense to do so as a Cult recruit, because telling us that a town read is town is better than claiming anything about Mala's alignment.

Interesting. What softs did you think you saw?

I was thinking someone else softed Jailkeeper.

I really don’t see how you get NK was softing cop.

Can you go into that more?

It's mainly his approach to Fred. He hardly interacted with him beyond some light suspicion D1, but then hard defended him D2 with no progression or reasoning on why he suddenly thought Fred was town. His thoughts had wavered on every player except Fred.

That’s what makes me believe he was at least a cop on D1, but those aren’t crumbs

If that was a crumb I’d have had a guilty on you no?

[MathBlade]

The main issue I have is that Meg did a similar soft of jailkeeping me after N1 and didn’t refute it.

[MathBlade]

Roden you may be right and Mala scum but she makes more sense as cult not CL.

I don’t think a CL quick hammers their only buddy like that.

Who do you think is most likely CL?

I do agree that Mala fits the bill for a recruit target though.

I mean I could see cult hammering like that when they know the slot is going over. Last second distancing was my initial impression after I saw the flip, but I prolly should reread drapion/mala ISO.

The best course of action today is aim for CL, from there we can work out the recruit. Trying to guess who got recruited is really WIFOM and once we POE the leader, we can solve from there.

(There's a good chance CL may have even failed to recruit from JK or unreq townies as well, so aiming for the recruit could be completely worthless)


Gamma, Roden, and (regrettably) Math are probably not CL in my book.

Specifically here.

My read was that Meg was PR with inno on me. Meg’s read changed rather violently.

[MathBlade]

Now I know Meg won’t say they were the Jk if recruited but I find it annoying me in the back of my mind.

[MathBlade]

The paranoia feeling I can’t shake is that scum knew I would be coming after NK15 today hard, so when they recruited Meg they had NK15 claim cop. I can’t shake that

Can anyone help me shake the paranoia?

[MathBlade]

I am thinking the team might be NK15/Roden/Meg

But I really really want to be wrong and have it just be Mala.

[MathBlade]

Life's a bit hectic atm but I'll do what I can to post.

Not shocked at all by the Cop claim, NK15 was pretty openly soft claiming it yesterday. If I saw it then the Cult definitely saw it, and I feel pretty confident that him claiming to have checked Math last night just means he got recruited. Math doesn't make sense as a Cop check, nobody really thought he was the CL on D2 and NK15 had instead heavily suspected Mala. I don't think it makes any sense to want to elim Mala yesterday but then Cop check a consensus town read. Though it makes perfect sense to do so as a Cult recruit, because telling us that a town read is town is better than claiming anything about Mala's alignment.

To be fair I agree I am a horrible cop check.

So your NK15 culted N2 does make sense in isolation but I don’t think such a fake claim comes unless it’s well thought out and planned and designed. It could also be that NK15 was being selfish in checking me.

There’s a lot of what ifs and maybe NK15 can clear it up.

Because what I am thinking is 3/4ths of NK15/Roden/Meg/Mala are scum and one has to be town.

[MathBlade]

Roden you may be right and Mala scum but she makes more sense as cult not CL.

I don’t think a CL quick hammers their only buddy like that.

Who do you think is most likely CL?

I do agree that Mala fits the bill for a recruit target though.

I mean I could see cult hammering like that when they know the slot is going over. Last second distancing was my initial impression after I saw the flip, but I prolly should reread drapion/mala ISO.

The best course of action today is aim for CL, from there we can work out the recruit. Trying to guess who got recruited is really WIFOM and once we POE the leader, we can solve from there.

(There's a good chance CL may have even failed to recruit from JK or unreq townies as well, so aiming for the recruit could be completely worthless)


Gamma, Roden, and (regrettably) Math are probably not CL in my book.

Specifically here.

My read was that Meg was PR with inno on me. Meg’s read changed rather violently.

Do you think you read as aligned with Drapion Day 1?

I think the shift was warranted.

I am a horrible judge of what I read as town. I think I obvTown as town and I obvTown as scum.

[MathBlade]

The main issue I have is that Meg did a similar soft of jailkeeping me after N1 and didn’t refute it.

I think I literally explained why Cult wouldn't target you so i legit don't know what you are talking about here.

You said an explanation, which I disagreed with, which sounds like CYB.

[MathBlade]

Cover your butt.

I have two theories one of which has NK or Roden CL
The other has Mala cult

It isn’t a one or the other.

I just know something is weird there

[MathBlade]

I'm about ready to vote here. I think Roden is most likely a recruit. I think If Mala is town here, her reads are explicitly game losing on a lim. (Because I know both my alignment and don't think Roden is CL) Honestly if we are t/t scum have thoroughly stomped us but that feels luke a pipe dream. If Mala is cult, I find exponentially likelier to be CL than for scum to recruit such a scumread slot.

I'm hesitant to pull the trigger in ELO so soon, but I think we lose on a NK15 vote here

I would say don’t be a hero if you’re town.

Talk it out

We have 6 days.

There’s no reason to quick vote when most people haven’t caught up.

[MathBlade]

I'm about ready to vote here. I think Roden is most likely a recruit. I think If Mala is town here, her reads are explicitly game losing on a lim. (Because I know both my alignment and don't think Roden is CL) Honestly if we are t/t scum have thoroughly stomped us but that feels luke a pipe dream. If Mala is cult, I find exponentially likelier to be CL than for scum to recruit such a scumread slot.

I'm hesitant to pull the trigger in ELO so soon, but I think we lose on a NK15 vote here

I would say don’t be a hero if you’re town.

Talk it out

We have 6 days.

There’s no reason to quick vote when most people haven’t caught up.

I'm fine for discussion but my townreads are divided against each other here. I feel like condensing today into a 1v1 is necessary and far better than the alternative, or as bad as the alternative worst case scenario

How can you say I am divided here?

I am not pushing like hard for anyone.

Who else is “divided”?

The last three days I have been compromising and we haven’t hit the CL at all

I would like to have remotely some confidence in a wagon before a vote happens.

[MathBlade]

Correct.

In an NK CL world Mala is likely town. As I said earlier.

I don’t think I am explaining myself well enough or you’re not in a space/alignment to listen to it.

[MathBlade]

Different CLs have different recruits

I think NK15 explaining why he copped me will help.

[MathBlade]

Correct.

In an NK CL world Mala is likely town. As I said earlier.

I don’t think I am explaining myself well enough or you’re not in a space/alignment to listen to it.

Do you think a town!Mala here votes CL!NK?

I am not sure. She’s been too quiet.

[MathBlade]

I will tell you if you vote right now I will not townread you at all.

[MathBlade]

I am starting to think that’s a you’d lose here not a we.

I think anyone who is town will talk things out and we pick who we think is CL out of the many many theories just fine

There is no town reason to do what you’re doing

[MathBlade]

You as scum are scared of me Johnny and Fred can talk we can find the CL.

[MathBlade]

Vote Count 2.07

Malakittens (3):

MegAzumarill, Fredrick A Campbell, Not Known 15

Elements (3):

Gamma Emerald, Malakittens, Roden

Roden (1):

MathBlade

Not Voting (1):

Elements

With 8 alive, it's 5 to eliminate.

Deadline for Day 2 is October 7 at 9:00 PM EDT.

Deadline Timer:

(expired on 2022-10-07 21:00:00)

The only team that works for Mala CL to me is Johnny/NK15/Roden.

I don’t see how that team works.

[MathBlade]

I mean Johnny Mala Roden I am tired

[MathBlade]

Whelp now I am not voting Mala yet I don’t think.

To answer your question Meg because you’d have to have Mala recruit on wagon which is sus as hell.

I don’t think that makes sense.

If you assume Mala + Roden + one that should be off wagon

But then both Fred and Johnny taking it slow means one is town

Like I don’t like how rushed this is.

[MathBlade]

I feel like I'm falling off a bit this game, sorry

I don't want to vote Elements because of their D1 play and interactions with other players, I just don't get the vibe that they're the CL. However I don't really have a compelling case besides my vibe read. Meanwhile NK15's case seems genuine, it clashes with my read but I think I could just be wrong on Elements. NK15 is town by meta, so I'm willing to follow him here since I do feel like Mala's been townier today anyway.

VOTE: Elements

Roden could be the Night 1 convert.

Mala CL, Drapion Cultist, Roden Night 1 convert, Campbell Night 2 convert. This seems to fit.

Possible but with how forced this is I find it unlikely. If this was true I don’t think you and Meg rush it as much as you are.

If you’re right those three will have to talk and come up with a counter wagon.

[MathBlade]

I especially want to see what Roden proposes and to take an actual stance on something.

Roden I am pretty sure is scum here.

[MathBlade]

Talking with each other.

[MathBlade]

I want to see Johnny/Fred and Roden and Mala give actual reads before we vote.

Because if that’s the team no matter how improbable I feel that is then they need to give reads.

I don’t think Mala who has been inactive overrides Roden as to who the cop is. Which makes NK15 not culted odd in an NK15 town world.

I am trying to figure out mechanically how things work.

The solutions I have either work by play but require mech actions out of character for the party
Or mech actions that work but don’t match play.

[MathBlade]

I want to see Johnny/Fred and Roden and Mala give actual reads before we vote.

Because if that’s the team no matter how improbable I feel that is then they need to give reads.

I don’t think Mala who has been inactive overrides Roden as to who the cop is. Which makes NK15 not culted odd in an NK15 town world.

I am trying to figure out mechanically how things work.

The solutions I have either work by play but require mech actions out of character for the party
Or mech actions that work but don’t match play.

Mala not overriding Roden? But if Mala is CL then recruitment is her decision alone. It makes Roden CL unlikely, but not Mala CL.

Mala and Roden if Roden was recruited N1 would have had a night chat (op says day chat but night chat is standard) this means if Roden was scum in that world Roden would have said “Convert NK15 he is the cop because (reason). Mala would have had to disregard this despite her claim she’s hella busy.”

The argument doesn’t line up. So I want to solve that discongruence