Open 865 | CultD3 | Postgame

[MathBlade]

So discounting myself/gamma and Ele from the list I have 6 names to rank from the end of day 1.

NK15:

strongest TR, turbobus is possible I guess, but they went at drap immediately at the start of the day and never really stopped.

Meg:

Scum don't

typically

180 on a read with little prodding, especially to bus.

Math:

Honestly looked the better out of that Meg 1v1 but Meg's actions ended up speaking louder than their confusing words. Math is dragged to my lowest townread because of the Ele push and Hut's general scumminess.
_____Scum line________

Roden:

Votes Drap early and hops back on the wagon later, never really seemed paired with them. Also i dont think Drap says theyre "trying to be recruited" if the two are already on the same team. Don't super like their play otherwise, the drawn out theory discussion w/Math was unecessary.

Fred:

I don't like their robotic approach but I fully admit that could just be personality incompatibility. Used RNG to justify voting up until things got spicy, which I don't looove, then voted NK over Drap and stayed there. Fades into the background just like a CL should, then tries to deflect from Drap. Decent chance Fred's Scum.

Mala:

Boring. Only posted like 11 times the whole day. Chose to vote NK over Drap, then flipped to Drap when it looked inevitable. The Drap vote was accompanied by a "fuck it" which screams resignation to me.

So yeah, given gamestate I'm prolly not voting outside Fred and Mala today

I will wait for you to catch up. This is horribly out of date.

Please provide caught up reads.

[MathBlade]

Math I laid out my catch up plan like 2 pages ago, don't get impatient with me tiger

If you did you didn’t post it here. I don’t see one

[MathBlade]

Ah I was looking for Tuesday I will read X
Wednesday Y

Like a schedule to me has dates

Hence my confusion

[MathBlade]

Uhm..I am actively NOT pushing you right now?

I could have easily just tunnelled you if scum and you town?

Like I get I have been scum a lot previously but I rarely if ever push you ask scum because comparatively you’re inactive?

Wtf Mala?

[MathBlade]

All I am asking for is reads. Who you think CL is and why? Who do you think is cult?

[MathBlade]

The only thing I'm interested in talking about right now while we wait is your paranoia on me, because we literally just lose if you pivot onto me.

I am building a heat map of who suspects who.

Serves me well in dance games.

Right now the overwhelming consensus is Mala

Which means if Mala is cult leader scum are staging for another day

And if she’s not they’re close to winning.

Since I am known to be town I am just plotting every possibility.

[MathBlade]

I want to see Johnny/Fred and Roden and Mala give actual reads before we vote.

Because if that’s the team no matter how improbable I feel that is then they need to give reads.

I don’t think Mala who has been inactive overrides Roden as to who the cop is. Which makes NK15 not culted odd in an NK15 town world.

I am trying to figure out mechanically how things work.

The solutions I have either work by play but require mech actions out of character for the party
Or mech actions that work but don’t match play.

Mala not overriding Roden? But if Mala is CL then recruitment is her decision alone. It makes Roden CL unlikely, but not Mala CL.

Mala and Roden if Roden was recruited N1 would have had a night chat (op says day chat but night chat is standard) this means if Roden was scum in that world Roden would have said “Convert NK15 he is the cop because (reason). Mala would have had to disregard this despite her claim she’s hella busy.”

The argument doesn’t line up. So I want to solve that discongruence

Hella busy or not, Mala did think that Fred was PR at least. But I guess with Mala being busy it's also possible that she missed the Night 1 convert and it is just her and Fred.

I do not think a convert would be missed

I am more saying that Mala+Roden would be a divisive combo based on what they’ve posted.

They aren’t posting the same ideas.

So mainly if NK15 to not be converted in a Roden scum world that would be an argument between Roden and X.

The alternative would be Roden using hindsight

I just don’t think Mala argues with Roden based on her lack of activity and business IRL. So Mala Roden NK15 makes more sense to me or dropping Roden off entirely or Mala off.

[MathBlade]

I especially want to see what Roden proposes and to take an actual stance on something.

Roden I am pretty sure is scum here.

?

I gave my reads and what I think the team is and what the order of recruitment. Claiming that I've proposed nothing and have no actual stances is just, bewilderingly wrong here. Right now I'm just waiting for Johnny to catch up since I don't see any particular reason to argue with anyone that is obviously cult, because you're pretty much my only town read talking right now.

Who are your townreads that aren't talking?

Johnny's overextended catch-up isn't doing much to address the current game state. Fred is also barely here; I'm pretty certain he isn't CL due to how NK15 played around him and my belief that NK15 was not recruited N1.

I am going to be pretty quiet tomorrow first time out of the house in a few months. So if I am quiet that’s why.

[MathBlade]

Here's the thing

You all should be concerned with the decent number of people scum reading me in ELO. THAT should be a red-flag because scum is less likely to bus this close to a win

It’s why I go slow in elo to evaluate things.

[MathBlade]

Sorry I’m honestly not dealing with another two days of this shif when we all know I’m going to be mistimed regardless and apparently the town jsut can’t give zero fucks and in over it

VOTE: Mala

If the last scum is roden as the CL then good job buddy, good job

Do you have a conpelling reason why CL!Roden kills off his partner Day 1 over an alternative?

I think you do it if you’re a brave scum player or don’t see any other way for cred or if there’s major discord in the scum PT.

It’s definitely rarer but not absolute.

I find it more likely Drapion never voted for the CL whoever it is.

[MathBlade]

So the people voting Mala were Mala NK15 and Meg.

Meg did this weird vote Unvote thing. So let’s see if we can eliminate some worlds

[MathBlade]

I'll probably revote after I hear what you have to say. You're really the only person opposed to it right now

Not opposed more seeing where lines end up.

Mala on here was Mala NK15 and you.

If anyone was scum lurking they could have hammered if Mala wasn’t cult leader.

It’s an established fact from the setup cult have daytalk

[MathBlade]

So if the entire scum team is on wagon already then no possibility of cross vote

Which means you either quick flash wagoned as town or there’s no possible scum buddy for you to vote with on it. Or you’re baiting town while your budd(ies) is/are AFK

[MathBlade]

Half tempted to join and half tempted to see who jumps on for future analysis. If its's wrong its probably over but eh I think Mala's prolly just vurbing associatives here.
May as well wait

I find wording like this very typical of scum. I think I don’t want a Mala wagon. I feel super sketched out.

[MathBlade]

What do you think the chances are of CL!Mala self-voting here vs notCL!Mala?

I don't know Mala well enough to say if they personally would do it more as CL vs. Non-CL.

My working theory is Mala is CL and their team is in decent shape even if they go down. It's still not ideal that they go down, but nobody's going to outright defend them in the cult because we'd make Shor work of then when Mala flipped.

I mean if Meg wanted Mala to die she could have kept her vote here and when Johnny came on Mala would be hammered no?

I don’t get this. If she wants it for future analysis then why not keep it?

[MathBlade]

I'll probably revote after I hear what you have to say. You're really the only person opposed to it right now

Not opposed more seeing where lines end up.

Mala on here was Mala NK15 and you.

If anyone was scum lurking they could have hammered if Mala wasn’t cult leader.

It’s an established fact from the setup cult have daytalk

I mean it was an open window of like 30 seconds.

Whar do you mean by lines here?

Like party lines.

[MathBlade]

Vote Count 3.03

It's the way that you feel
It's the truth in your eye
You got wings upon your back and you can fly

Not Voting (7):

Fredrick A Campbell, JohnnyFarrar, Malakittens, MathBlade, MegAzumarill, Not Known 15, Roden

With 7 alive, it's 4 to eliminate.

Deadline for Day 3 is October 16 at 12:30 PM EDT.

Deadline Timer:

(expired on 2022-10-16 12:30:00)

Let’s assume Mala is cult for a moment and not CL.

Then if we hammered Mala

Then tomorrow we go into 6 alive and 3 cult and 3 town. Scum would still win if they hadn’t failed a convert.

So I know that of the people wanting to vote Mala at that time (Mala, NK15, Meg, and Johnny) had all expressed interest. In a three scum world I know that there has to be at least one scum in that four. Because me Roden and Fred does not a town of four make.

[MathBlade]

Gah I don’t think Mala is the CL which probably has dead thread screaming I am an idiot

[MathBlade]

That does assume that
A. scum would want to recruit Mala here and that
B. Mala would be playing to AtE llike this when about to win

Both don't feel likely especially in tandem.

It’s more I am starting with facts then going to play.

Unless I find a wagon exactly three people and myself and only that combo want then that’s the only way NK15’s cop claim works.

If Mala happens to be the cult leader and I am not on wagon then NK15 also has to be culted.

[MathBlade]

4 town and 3 scum is the current gamestate

Assume I am town and NK15 is town.

This means two other town can exist.

The wagon of four is Mala, You, NK15, Johnny

If you assign yourself NK15 and Johnny town then there has to be Mala scum.

There has to be a scum somewhere in that group of four.

[MathBlade]

With me so far?

[MathBlade]

If there is a scum on the wagon then it is proscum for their wincon.

Meaning either A) Mala wins then the game or B) advances their gamestate.

If it is option A) we lose
If it is option B) there are not 3 scum. If there are not 3 scum the PR had to be a JK who stopped a convert. If the PR is a JK then we don’t have a cop. If Option B then NK15 is scum.

[MathBlade]

Since I know there is a scum in that group of four I kinda don’t want a Mala wagon unless it is a huge ass gambit by Mala then well done. It’s possible but I am not sure if Mala bets the whole game on it as CL.

[MathBlade]

Well let’s play out a few scenarios where Mala just dies

Mala CL recruits Roden N1 their lack of effort is pretty much screaming scum to me. Then who else?

[MathBlade]

In a NK15 town world it is Johnny or you or Fred. There’s literally no one else.

[MathBlade]

I believe that Malakittens is most likely the Cult Leader. Here's what I will be doing. Looking at every other player and estimating how likely the hypotheses that the player is Cult Leader is.

I propose other players attempt to do the same. The player which is most likely Cult Leader should be the best choice from your perspective.

Fred also would be on Mala as cult leader. So odds are either A) Scum planned a cult leader bus since only I and maybe Roden are against or B) Mala isn’t cult leader

If it’s A) Scum don’t need me you have the numbers. But it’s more than likely B

[MathBlade]

Maybe the current team is Malakittens, Not Known 15 and MegAzumarill.

Only a cult member will be this comfortable throwing votes out like this because they know the cult isn't going to step in and quickhammer because they are part of the cult.

In addition to that, the execution of a cult member will automatically lead us to a loss. This suggests that Malakittens isn't the cult leader but just a recruit, while either of Not Known 15 or MegAzumarill is the actual cult leader.

I personally think Not Known 15 is the cult leader as MegAzumarill is just a lot less likely considering 伊's play on day 1.

Can you please clarify who the symbol refers to?

I don’t speak that language

[MathBlade]

I personally think Not Known 15 is the cult leader

I don't know how that would work with him claimed cop?

It’s work if the actual power role was culted.

[MathBlade]

Maybe the current team is Malakittens, Not Known 15 and MegAzumarill.

Only a cult member will be this comfortable throwing votes out like this because they know the cult isn't going to step in and quickhammer because they are part of the cult.

In addition to that, the execution of a cult member will automatically lead us to a loss. This suggests that Malakittens isn't the cult leader but just a recruit, while either of Not Known 15 or MegAzumarill is the actual cult leader.

I personally think Not Known 15 is the cult leader as MegAzumarill is just a lot less likely considering 伊's play on day 1.

I personally think Not Known 15 is the cult leader

I don't know how that would work with him claimed cop?

It’s work if the actual power role was culted.

Indeed, it would only then.
And now look at Campbell's claim that the team is meg, me and mala. Do you really think , if that were true, that the team is Mala, Meg, and myself, that Mala is not CL, and the PR converted at night, the game would play out like that? Campbells case is extremely shallow. There's nothing behind it but a scum who knows that a mala lim leads to certain defeat if you trust me afterwards and to very unfavourable odds even if you don't.

I am the tortoise. Stop being the hare for a second.

[MathBlade]

Posting to show lack of quickhammer for more teams

Busy with work stuff

[MathBlade]

Anyone online who wants to play remove the possible scum teams?

[MathBlade]

No quick hammer

[MathBlade]

Still no quick hammer here.

Pretty sure both recruits are voting the CL currently but that isn't really a new take from me. But I think the lack of quick hammer + the gutsy nature of their push just means that this is the correct vote, and that the following days are mainly going to be a battle where you're the tie breaker, Math.

If it happens it does.

Then we can see where party lines are drawn which is protown.

[MathBlade]

If it turns to e-1 and e-1 then I only have two worlds to consider.

If it turns into one hammers over the other then we know there has to be a scum on it.

So it narrows down scum worlds the more I hood out.

[MathBlade]

Wait it out*

My phone is weird

[MathBlade]

If it turns to e-1 and e-1 then I only have two worlds to consider.

If it turns into one hammers over the other then we know there has to be a scum on it.

So it narrows down scum worlds the more I hood out.

Ok but this is true for any 4 arbitrary players you choose so im not really sure what you're on about

It’s because I am the townfirm I go last

Standard elo voting rules.

It has more power when scum have to vote first.

[MathBlade]

I'm not arguing that you should vote (I think if roden was being genuine they would've at this point ) I was just wondering what you hope to acheive with this 'line' analysis

I work off of premises and X won’t do event
X event is true
Then combine them all.

So I can wait and see who reacts to what

There’s a predisposition towards those giving opinions being town.

If no scum give opinions Mala will be the hammer of default.

So it’s chicken.

Give info or Mala dies

[MathBlade]

Posting

If you’re here posty post please Johnny.

The more teams that can be eliminated the better

[MathBlade]

So there is a scum in NK15/Meg/Fred/Roden

Probably looking at Roden Fred Meg team given the hammer and time stamps at least Fred/Roden

This is assuming scum didn’t chicken out and Mala is CL

Wanna tell me if it’s worth keeping going?

[MathBlade]

I think it's over

You’re CL aren’t you?

[MathBlade]

No actually, Day 1 was real.

So then you cant have told your thoughts about NK15 being cop until N2 which is where you’d have to be recruited.

[MathBlade]

Or N1 maybe. N1 more likely

[MathBlade]

If you’re recruited N1 then NK15 likely the recruit for cop unless you were full of shit about noticing the crumb but knowing you I doubt it.

Fred can’t be N1, so can’t be CL

So looking at Johnny or Meg CL

I am gonna be so sad if it’s Meg.

Is it?

[MathBlade]

I am still going to pretend to solve in case it matters

And interesting indeed.

[MathBlade]

Decided it'd be better to hit the clear than the cop since you were under fire and figured it would be a Math check

So I was right D1 darn it. Then got convinced when I had a rule mistake damn.

My gut was right

Wow

[MathBlade]

VOTE: Meg

Because I can

[MathBlade]

Well damn I should listen to gut more

[MathBlade]

And gg if that isn’t clear

[MathBlade]

My suggestion would be to disable the cult recruit once an elo is hit.

That would remove some of the swing I think.

But overall really good game

[MathBlade]

Like I can really play however I feel like tbh.
But I’ll tell you this much.
Regardless of alignment I’ll always be honest with you. (Other then my fake claim of course.)

Yay! My gut vibe on you was right!

[MathBlade]

I had to get Math off of Meg and onto me or someone else without looking as such.
I also got Meg to buss me and told them to in cult chat.


PokeCult!

Well done Drapion