Mini 2284: The Thing Anonymous [The End?]

[Palmer~]

And here I was actually watching the movie before the game started. Will that end up giving me an advantage? Probably not.

VOTE: Copper

[Palmer~]

If someone would like to donate some weed so that I could accurately portray Palmer, that'd be appreciated.

[Palmer~]

Ah, we're getting serious?

I like Lars' and MacReady's intros, probably for bad reasons. And I think Copper's is slightly more likely to come from a Thing.

[Palmer~]

Ah, we're getting serious?

I like Lars' and MacReady's intros, probably for bad reasons. And I think Copper's is slightly more likely to come from a Thing.

i like you and thats it everybody else is a changeling.

pog

[Palmer~]

Ah, we're getting serious?

I like Lars' and MacReady's intros, probably for bad reasons. And I think Copper's is slightly more likely to come from a Thing.

I have a confession to make, I have never seen the thing movie. I just wanted to play an anon game.

Me too TBH.
VOTE: Bennings

This? What sticks out to you as Thing-like?

Yeah, that. It's a vibe. The TBH seems self-conscious, the post itself is short and seems to be made for the sake of making it and fitting in, and the vote on a person that hasn't posted yet vibes like he doesn't want to start ruffling feathers yet.

[Palmer~]

Defensive much?

[Palmer~]

If we do everyThing well and lim someThing correctly every day then noThing can stop us. We have to be ready for anyThing but someone seems to be suspiciously ready...

VOTE: MacReady

this is too wordy and redundant which is why its miles better.

I thought the wordiness of that post made it Human-like, or at least NAI. The joking gave it a Human-like tone, but less so than Lars.

[Palmer~]

Dear god, is that^^ what happens when you get taken over by a Thing?

[Palmer~]

If we do everyThing well and lim someThing correctly every day then noThing can stop us. We have to be ready for anyThing but someone seems to be suspiciously ready...

VOTE: MacReady

this is too wordy and redundant which is why its miles better.

I thought the wordiness of that post made it Human-like, or at least NAI. The joking gave it a Human-like tone, but less so than Lars.

pretty sure its just the explaining of things everybody already knows in so many words that makea me feel as if windows is trying to appear more helpful than they actually are.

I don't think the point of that post was to "explain" anything. Why are you framing it that way?

[Palmer~]

I don't currently think Clark is a Thing. I can understand the feeling of annoyance that people took his post the wrong way. Though I don't have anything against a wagon there, as I don't think any of my ideas are going to be >rand right now, and info is info.

Nauls gives me town vibes. Gut tells me that a Thing, if they were planning an entrance to the thread with content, wouldn't have chosen a single post from page 2 to form all their content on.

Garry also feels slightly towny. Explanation purposefully omitted for now.

@Copper, give me your strongest Human and Thing read?

[Palmer~]

Palmer, Windows literally said "catching a thing everyday and nobody can stop us" which is true for any game? Is that not literally just "explaining" (maybe stateing is a better word for you if you want to be a nitpicky demonspawn) the obvious?

I mean, yes, it's "stating the obvious", but the whole post itself is obviously trying to shoehorn in as many "Thing" puns as possible. I think that gives it much more context (and vibes more towny) than if you take his post literally.

[Palmer~]

VOTE: Palmer

May I ask why?

[Palmer~]

You think clark is town, but you are okay with a wagon there because "info is info" does not feel like a genuine thought.

Yeah. I think he's more likely to be town than not. I also am not certain enough in this read to go defend him and attempt to dismantle his wagon, and I think that he'll probably become more readable as a consequence of it.

As for Nauls, agree to disagree I guess.

So after reading it, I opened your iso. So far you have claimed to have had alignment thoughts on Lars, MacReady, Copper, Windows, Clark, Nauls and Garry. Largely light comments, but all voiced, which made it look more like you are just going through the motions of calling things town or scum, vs have real thoughts on these players.

I don't understand this point. If I hadn't voiced those opinions, then you wouldn't know I had them, no?

[Palmer~]

Childs, what's your opinion on Norris and his push on Windows?

[Palmer~]

Childs, what's your opinion on Norris and his push on Windows?

the push feels hollow at best

I currently don't see anything wrong with Windows besides the fact that his name is actually a "thing" and it's the reason why I rvs voted him

I would like people like Norris to stop defending someone who's response to pressure is horrendous.

I mean, if you agree with me the push feels hollow...

I know I shouldn't like Nauls for 127, but it's hard not to. I won't, though.

[Palmer~]

In and of itself that can also come from town who are assuming their target is scum rather than trying to convince others of it. But in Palmer's case this also rang suspicious to me: post 111 (not just that Palmer is okay with a wagon on a townread (123 I think explained that part okay) but the way he dismisses all his reads " I don't think any of my ideas are going to be >rand right now" which is like, yeah no shit, we're barely out of RVS. I don't think town feel the need to undermine their own posts in that way.

The reason why I undermined my own reads was because I felt that, if I

don't

specifically spell that part out, someone is going to be a smartass and say "You claim you don't have a better target than Clark and are fine with his wagon, but you are voting Copper? Contradiction much?" and that would've been annoying.

As for Fuchs' point: I'm not deliberately misunderstanding anything, I just don't understand what is his problem with my reads specifically. They're not fleshed out, yes, but nobody's are at this point, no? So I want him to elaborate on that.

[Palmer~]

I do like Fuchs for town, and I also liked his follow up in 146.

[Palmer~]

VOTE: Bennings

This ISO doesn't impress me, maybe even less than Copper's right now. Yes, I was inspired to take a look after reading 157.

Still expecting Copper to actually have reads when he's next here.

[Palmer~]

Nauls: Human
Garry: Thing???

I always find it very hard to make scumreads this early unless someone does something outrageously scummy. That second one is very faint and I mostly have townreads and nulls right now.

Lars also town, as strong as Nauls.

So is Windows on a re-read of everything.

OK Norris is scummy, scummier than Garry.
VOTE: Norris

Can these actually be explained? They don't actually mean anything to me right now.

[Palmer~]

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that Lars' treatment of Norris is

worse

than Copper's is, assuming Norris is town. Copper's vote is naked and unexplained, sure. But reading through Lars' posts on the bottom of page 7 and top of page 8, they give off this aura of Lars trying really hard to appear superior to Norris. It doesn't read like he's actually interrogating Norris, it reads like he's trying to show to the rest of us how unreasonable and scummy Norris is.

I also think Norris is a type of player that is easier to read if he's allowed to do his own thing, rather than if he gets jumped on early. Which is an additional point that gives me the chills about Lars here.

[Palmer~]

VOTE: Lars

[Palmer~]

How are Garry's and Norris' tones different than Windows'?

[Palmer~]

Do you still feel Windows is scum and who (else) do you want to kill?

[Palmer~]

Though I remember somebody said something about tring Garry which I disagree with, its too generous for what they are.

I am one of those people; what's wrong with Garry?

[Palmer~]

I’m having issues processing this game because of the familiar profile pictures and my inability to distinguish men.

Oh good, I'm not the only person having this issue.

By the way, @Clark, can you include some reasons why you read people the way you do as you catch up? It's going to make it easier to follow.

[Palmer~]

Why would that be annoying? Because it draws attention to you?

Because it would be a silly misunderstanding that I would then have to spend my limited brain power on. Kind of like I'm doing now.

I know my other post might seem funny, but there is reason why I asked it.

[Palmer~]

Well, I think Windows just shot down to somewhere on the bottom of my reads. One thing is the point that 246 explains pretty well. And the fact that Windows started with something somewhat reasonable ("You are defensive and are accusing someone else of being defensive, projection!") and ended up on

that

makes me think he's scum who tried to apply the same "projection" logic on multiple reads, but forgot to examine whether such logic actually makes sense.

Also, the "this is a contradiction from Copper!" is a horrible point in 242. It feels like desperately trying to fish out a gotcha.

[Palmer~]

Windows, do you have any thoughts on Lars?

[Palmer~]

How are Garry's and Norris' tones different than Windows'?

Windows' posts, while fewer, have a more solvy vibe if that makes sense.

Kind of, I thought Garry was pretty solvy. Do you think he's faking it? Why, if so?

[Palmer~]

I don't know how I feel about the fact that Windows just listed the posts of Lars that I consider the worst from him, and then called them genuine attempts to solve.

And something about Windows' joke-reason to townread Lars feels really forced, though I guess I might be conf-biasing here.

[Palmer~]

You finished the backread in the 2 minutes between those posts?

I don't see a problem, no? Norris' trolling is on the same page as Bennings' question. It doesn't take a lot of time to read Norris' trolling and feel it's scummy and want to comment on it. Those sort of things happen to me as town a lot, so I can see it coming from a town perspective.

[Palmer~]

This might seem sort of off-topic but I'm still curious and would be interested how people answer - are you calling scum 'scum' this game, or 'Thing' ?

I was planning to use "Thing", but there is just no good substitute for "scummy".

Pedit:

You said Lars shouldn't be pushing Norris early but should basically just let him be. I don't see why scum are more likely to push Norris in the way Lars did than town though? Especially in an anonymous game where meta doesn't factor into it?

Not quite. I don't mind people pushing Norris in a productive manner, but I think it is kind of obvious that the way Lars was pushing him wasn't actually going to get him to co-operate or show his alignment. And it felt like Lars was trying harder to convince the rest of us why Norris is scummy and why he (Lars) is the reasonable one in that discussion, which I think is scum-motivated, as I don't think a townie can have that good of a read on Norris already.

PPedit:

I don't know how I feel about the fact that Windows just listed the posts of Lars that I consider the worst from him, and then called them genuine attempts to solve.

And something about Windows' joke-reason to townread Lars feels really forced, though I guess I might be conf-biasing here.

are you talking about 271?

Yeah, sorry, should've linked it. 271.

PPPedit:

You finished the backread in the 2 minutes between those posts?

I don't see a problem, no? Norris' trolling is on the same page as Bennings' question. It doesn't take a lot of time to read Norris' trolling and feel it's scummy and want to comment on it. Those sort of things happen to me as town a lot, so I can see it coming from a town perspective.

I feel like if that were the case either the earlier post or the later one would be phrased differently. Like the second post might have begun "and since then" as an additional reason to stick with the vote rather than "also" which connects it back as a justification for the original vote.

This feels like further nitpicking into obscurity. The post seems fine to me, even in the context of "additional reason to stick with the vote".

[Palmer~]

I don't really get the town reads on Childs, he is still firmly in my null pile.

@MacReady, do you scum read anyone other than Clark?

[Palmer~]

maybe I'm just a sweel guy?

Perhaps. What do you think of the argument between me and Windows?

anyway I thought you might be mistaking him for mcready who was talking about lars's reads

I don't think I'm mixing anyone up - I want to know if MacReady has any other scumreads.

[Palmer~]

My thoughts are that most of us often don't read the game linearly. I sometimes skip ahead, or return to previous parts, and I definitely think that "backreading" or "being caught up" are not binary states. And when talking about whether I've "read the game", I don't often bother clarifying things like these because it's unnecessary typing that doesn't actually help anyone read me. So I can imagine a similar confusing thought process happening with other people as well.

Which is why I am inherently suspicious of someone trying to force out such a contradiction.

[Palmer~]

Going from "I'm sheeping others on Norris" to "his trolling is also scummy, BTW" in 3 minutes, then claiming you've read the rest of the game in those 3 minutes, is 100% plausible and Windows is scummy for trying to claim it's not.

[Palmer~]

I don't really get the town reads on Childs, he is still firmly in my null pile.

did you plan on continuing this thought or?

There isn't really anything to continue there. I was hoping that my comment would make reactions happen that help me read Childs, or anyone else. I don't think that has happened, though.

[Palmer~]

Norris (4): Nauls, Lars, Copper, Childs
Clark (3): MacReady, Garry, Blair
Copper (3): Clark, Bennings, Windows

Man, do these wagons give me a bad feeling.

VOTE: Windows

[Palmer~]

If you read my posts, you will notice that I don't scumread any of the three wagons! And I DO scumread multiple people voting for those wagons!

In addition to that, I do not care about baseless VCA!

[Palmer~]

Vote count analysis.

Why are the odds that one of those is correct? Besides the pure mathematical probability, which is true for any group of 3.

[Palmer~]

Or maybe these are three town wagons and the things don't give two shits about pushing town wagons when there's no threat for them. But I dunno.

[Palmer~]

in a normal game, you can bus for towncred and get towncred to endgame because really good bussing makes people look very town - that's the incentive to bus your teammate in a normal game

in this game - we are re-evaluating every slot every day because alignments can change so that bus credit doesn't do you any good - it's not like you can bus your teammate on day one and coast for a few days.

I mean, that's fair, and I do realize I haven't been thinking about the Assimilation mechanic and its effect on dayplay as much as I should've been. But I don't think that "scum doesn't have an incentive to bus" translates into "scum will automatically hard push town wagons when they're there", or in this case, that one of those wagons

has

to be scum.

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that Lars' treatment of Norris is

worse

than Copper's is, assuming Norris is town. Copper's vote is naked and unexplained, sure. But reading through Lars' posts on the bottom of page 7 and top of page 8, they give off this aura of Lars trying really hard to appear superior to Norris. It doesn't read like he's actually interrogating Norris, it reads like he's trying to show to the rest of us how unreasonable and scummy Norris is.

I also think Norris is a type of player that is easier to read if he's allowed to do his own thing, rather than if he gets jumped on early. Which is an additional point that gives me the chills about Lars here.

I think windows is town for this post

Why?

I town read Lars's posts about Norris here for the exact reasons that you scum read them lmao.

Lars is putting in work on it, cross checking the tone of his recent posts vs how he presented prior, and putting himself in the forefront of the push by being the strongest, loudest, most detailed pusher. This is not where scum want to be on a town!Norris wagon.

It is early Day 1, and Norris is doing a decent job of making himself look bad. No need for scum to go this hard right there, so this looks more to me like town!Lars genuinely believing in his case.

Yeah, I don't buy it, sorry. I don't think it's uncommon for scum to go hard early in pushing someone in an average game, and

especially

not here where they can jumped out of a doomed slot, if it comes down to it.

If his thought process had showed some sort of really towny traits or something, I wouldn't think he's scum, but I found the way he's pushing Norris to just be all kinds of off.

If you read my posts, you will notice that I don't scumread any of the three wagons! And I DO scumread multiple people voting for those wagons!

In addition to that, I do not care about baseless VCA!

Or maybe these are three town wagons and the things don't give two shits about pushing town wagons when there's no threat for them. But I dunno.

Not liking the wagons in part because you scum read multiple people voting on those wagons feels pretty contradictory to coming back and arguing that maybe scum does not feel the need to push any of the wagons since they are all town.

Voting a wagon =/= pushing a wagon. I don't think any of my scumreads, or anyone else really, was trying really hard to get any of those wagons through.

And that's not mentioning that the second statement is more of a hypothetical response to Childs about why I don't think there has to be scum in the three wagons.

[Palmer~]

And I accidentally put post 383 inside post 382, lovely. Doesn't matter anyway, as I see it was answered already.

As a surprise to nobody, I don't agree at all with 400. If Windows is scum and Copper is town, he already knew he was attacking someone telling the truth. Obviously he would not be expecting to find something that's false. But it's possible that scum!Windows noticed the two posts were close to each other, and when he saw Copper say that the second one happened after "he had read everything", went back to check how long it passed between the two.

Yes, obviously scum!Windows knows that town!Copper is telling the truth. But it's not about that, it's about whether Windows can sell it to other people that Copper is lying.

[Palmer~]

If scum sees what they think is a contradiction or a potential gotcha on a townie, they won’t think “ehhh actually there’s no urgency so I just won’t call this out”, they’ll still call it out. The current gamestate is pretty meaningless, scum will almost always call out something that will push their agenda.

Once again, saying what I was thinking when reading that.

My point is that when I see someone making arguments that come across as "grasping at straws," such as this timing argument, then it is likely either: a townie who is kinda tunneled and seeing evidence everywhere they look OR scum in a desperate position.

Why can it not be scum pretending to be a tunneled townie? This is assuming that scum never forcefully does anything unless they have to, and I think that's very wrong.

[Palmer~]

I'm in a weird spot currently, because a lot of posts from Fuchs I absolutely hate and see clear scum motivation for them at the time they're made. But also a few of them are actually really good.

Slightly cold feet on Windows, but I'm not sure that matters exactly, as it seems we're getting a claim out of Clark. Not thrilled about it, but I also can't say I have anything against that, their slot hasn't been improved really.

(Also, Clark uses they/she.)

[Palmer~]

If scum sees what they think is a contradiction or a potential gotcha on a townie, they won’t think “ehhh actually there’s no urgency so I just won’t call this out”, they’ll still call it out. The current gamestate is pretty meaningless, scum will almost always call out something that will push their agenda.

Once again, saying what I was thinking when reading that.

My point is that when I see someone making arguments that come across as "grasping at straws," such as this timing argument, then it is likely either: a townie who is kinda tunneled and seeing evidence everywhere they look OR scum in a desperate position.

Why can it not be scum pretending to be a tunneled townie?

This is assuming that scum never forcefully does anything unless they have to, and I think that's very wrong.

First the bolded: If your basis for claiming that something makes someone a town read, is that they must do something that scum can't do, then you will never form a town read ever. Scum can do anything. This is a game of "more likely's"

Now the Italics: That is not anywhere close to my point.

Scum can, and do, make pushes on townies. Even when they are not in a bad spot, and that is simply not my point.

You are taking something that I am saying about a very specific situation [that he made

this push

, in

this way,

in this game state] And trying to reframe it as if I am claiming a universal truth that scum would not make

any push

, in

any way

, in this game state.

Re: the bolded: that is not what I said. Not at all. I asked you why YOU are framing it as "either tunneled town or desperate scum", when I think such a dichotomy is not valid here.

Re: the italics: sure, I'm generalizing. But I don't think your claims are valid either.

[Palmer~]

And in my experience, the person making this kind of argument, [saying that you need to explain why scum could not do the thing that makes you think someone is more likely town] is scum most interested in shooting down the formation of town reads on potential miselim options.

Like it not being framed that windows IS SCUM, doing that, just that he COULD BE scum doing that, shows more interest in shooting down the town read then actually sorting windows.

It's almost as if I don't know whether Windows is scum or not.

And saying I'm not interested in sorting Windows here is bullshit. You made a claim that Windows is either tunneled town or desperate scum, probably not desperate scum, ergo tunneled town. I asked you why can he not be scum pretending to be tunneled. I am actively asking you to elaborate on your reasons that I currently find unconvincing but I wanna hear more about them.

What would "sorting Windows" look like to you here? If I just accepted your reads without question?

[Palmer~]

It's really annoying that I don't think Fuchs is scum over this. Because I wish I did.

[Palmer~]

469 is a post that says my thoughts. I think Fuchs is still being towny in the way he's thinking and presenting the arguments, despite personally not agreeing with them.

The fact that Copper is calling that out makes me feel slightly better on Copper, I guess.

I do think Clark looks significantly worse after that last pop in too. I was gonna vote, but Fuchs beat me to it, so consider this intent/spiritual vote/whatever.

Much less thrilled with this Garry than with the last one, BTW.

[Palmer~]

I think the fact that Clark has done the "claim, then dip the thread again" approach feels like scum going into antispew.

I'm gonna let Fuchs answer the above question first, but I have something to say about it.

Pedit: Oh look, first alt slip of the game. Fun.

[Palmer~]

My mechanical thoughts on the claim:

Even if we ignore the fact that testing Clark's PR would require outing a different PR, we cannot exactly test her claim anyway.

If she's scum, she just jumps out of the Clark account.
Even if the test confirms her as town, we still don't know whether the slot will actually

stay

town, because assimilation is possible.

So I think the claim should be ignored altogether for now. And as I said before, I don't exactly love what they're currently doing dayplay wise.

[Palmer~]

I am insanely skeptical of this setup being breakable, but I am still listening, lol.

[Palmer~]

Uh. Even going by that plan, it doesn't even prove that Clark is town, it just guarantees that Childs doesn't die N1. And even that isn't good enough, because if Clark IS scum, she just jumps out of her own slot anyway.

Which also, why in the hell would you claim that openly.

Yeah, I hate this.

[Palmer~]

I think Childs is greatly overestimating this town's ability to successfully figure out assimilations. And considering the entire plan hinges on that, I think it's a very bad plan.

I also echo Childs being town, though.

Currently busy, will have more time in a few hours to read properly and see if I have thoughts on anything else.

[Palmer~]

Palmer, when you get here, I'd like to talk a bit.

I am more-or-less around. What's up?

623 is... interesting.

I'm leaning Copper to be a townie for the 625-629 sequence, oddly enough.

In case anyone is wondering - I find mech arguments boring to engage with, and almost impossible to make reads from. I say almost, because I got a read on Childs. So I don't have much to say currently.

[Palmer~]

I'm not big on wasting energy on clarifying my own reads to myself when they won't be applicable immediately, and especially not in a game where scum can assimilate. I think Clark is scum, I wanna flip them and work from there. Everyone else is less important to me at the time.

If you want, I can look at your two ISOs again and get back to you.

[Palmer~]

It either wasn't a priority, or I was waiting to see what you did first. Or both, I don't really remember.

Do you think it's scummy of me to not interact with you? Why do you recon I'm scum for it, instead of town playing suboptimally?

[Palmer~]

261 was most of it? Yeah, I didn't find that anything in that post is actually worth interacting over. I can guess the answers to both why you think I'm pocketing Nauls and why you think my follow on Windows is bad.

"Consistently seems a little off" is an interesting one, I guess; but my experience tells me that it's a very easy read to make up and a very hard read to prove false, because it talks about vague feelings.

[Palmer~]

but I think it's still useful in a situation where scum can assimilate to try to have as few lingering questions or doubts as possible when heading into night phase.

Why is this, by the way? I kind of lean the opposite way, since we'll be re-evaluating most slots tomorrow.

[Palmer~]

I agree that wouldn't probably be worth interacting over, from the perspective of trying to make me see you as town. But I would expect that it would be worth interacting over from the perspective of you trying to sort me.

I'm not expecting that an answer to that question would be very AI. As I've said, I feel like that kind of read is very easy to make up when you're scum.

But sure, let's see - in what ways am I a little off to you?

[Palmer~]

Oh, and what made you be less sure of it 396?

[Palmer~]

And then I end up lower on your second readslist than on your first...

[Palmer~]

Clark has had one foot in their grave for how many IRL days now? Why would I feel urgency towards sorting

you

...

[Palmer~]

I am not aware of us being able to burn more than one person in one game Day?

Because we aren't. And even if I got a very solid scumread of you Today, then what? Scum has extra info to plan for kills and assimilations?

[Palmer~]

I still think Clark is likely scum.

How did you get here? They were in second-to-last tier in the readslist prior, and I don't see anything in between that explains it.

[Palmer~]

But fine, I read your ISO. here's my findings:

Almost nothing speaks to me. Your ISO sure is full of posts, but none of them actually seem very telling to me. There's nothing egregiously scummy, but there's also nothing that seems like a strikingly difficult thought process to fake. The one thing that still sticks out to me the most is the Norris stuff from the beginning of the game, and even that I currently don't find as bad as I did when I first read it.

[I wrote the above when the thread was somewhere around 655, and I'm keeping it in.]

The only thing from my initial reread is that I thought Lars looks rather unaligned with Clark.

I think I'm leaning town on Lars currently. Something about the way he explains his reads feels like town. Remembering the relations of his reads in 656 and 662, for example. And the last paragraph of 654 feels like townie paranoia.

I think Lars and I are seeing the game quite differently, which is part of the reason for these misunderstandings. But reading the way he's trying to play, I think it actually fits and makes sense with the ISO that I read.

[Palmer~]

I don't really have much more to say here - I hope Clark is not a town jailbreaker, but their silence and posting throughout this entire process has not been townie at all, so I don't think that's very likely. I think there's a fair amount of vca to do in the scum-Clarke world, but that should wait for tomorrow

The blatant consensus and lack of a counterwagon do somewhat worry me though

My first thought upon reading this was that this doesn't make them town, as it's very clear they're going to flip soon and scum wouldn't want to look like garbage after defending them. This is partly invalid due to the assimilation mechanic being possible, since scum can just leave doomed slots. But not completely invalid, because (from what I understand) the assimilation can potentially get blocked, and they maybe don't want to have to use it on jumping out of a doomed slot.

TL;DR, Clark is scummy on play, I'm fine with the hammer happening there.

[Palmer~]

If that Thing successfully carries out the nightkill on its intended target, it will "assimilate" the alternate account of the killed player and gain control of it.

This part of the ruleset. It seems that, if the nightkill gets blocked, the assimilation also gets blocked.

I wasn't trying to imply a scenario where an assimilation gets blocked but the nightkill doesn't; I was just highlighting that assimilations CAN get blocked, therefore scum probably wouldn't rely on them for jumping out of doomed slots.

[Palmer~]

I'm a 1-shot Cop, and I have a guilty.

VOTE: Windows

For anyone wondering, that is partly why I was playing kind of quietly on Day 1. I didn't wanna risk being widely townread and getting assimilated.

[Palmer~]

623 is... interesting.

Which is also why I reacted this way to petapan's explanation.

If we believe Childs to be a novice vigilante and to still be human, I am not entirely opposed to burning me today, and then Windows being shot once I flip town.

I haven't yet processed Lars's death or the fact that Childs is still alive, though. On my reread during the Night, I wasn't feeling like Lars is scum.

[Palmer~]

Even though I think it's unlikely, I do want to confirm first that Childs hasn't been turned into one of them. And also for them to confirm that they are actually capable of shooting tonight, because it would be a tragedy if a scum assimilated away from the guilty.

[Palmer~]

One thing that I was thinking about during the night was the fact that since no one flips the PR role on death, that it might be beneficial for invests to reveal their information directly instead of trying to leave softs on their results (since we won't have a flip to use then decode the meaning of the softs).

And here we are with an invest claim out the gate lol

I did think about that at the start of the game. Another thing is that, if I try to just soft my results, they might not even be correct anymore by the time I die. So yeah.

[Palmer~]

Niceeee

Actually now that you mention it, vigi is relatively good since it means we can successfully resolve a 50/50 without things being able to assimilate

Trueeee

I was kind of sitting here wondering about whether palmer would fake a guilty planning to body swap tonight, but with the vig out there, they can just shoot them if windows flips town.

...I forgot that is also a thing that can be done. Why did my mind go to "eliminate me first, shoot windows if green" instead the other way around.

[Palmer~]

In my mind, the entirety of Clarke's demise points to scum being fairly low-influence - they weren't able to divert the wagon away

I thought the conversation at the end of Day with me was townie, and the vote in 395 seemed unlikely to be a bus when there were multiple wagon choices present.

[Palmer~]

And also for them to confirm that they are actually capable of shooting tonight,

Wouldn't aa newly-scum Childs say they were able to do this regardless?

Well, due to Childs' distinct posting style on Day 1, I am assuming we'll be able to recognize if they're newly-scum.

[Palmer~]

I was also town reading Lars. He did not seem like a slot that would need to slot abandon, and if he was scum could have just... stayed Lars.

One thought I had was that scum-Lars could've been a better-looking scum slot of the two remaining. But considering Windows is one of them... doesn't feel likely.

[Palmer~]

also I am just going to claim that I am a one shot mailman who sent the message to MacReady to conftown myself for now.


My thought process was that I wanted to know if he had been assimilated because it'd be dangerous for the town if a strong town leader like him had been assimilated.

Does this also conftown MacReady? That is, if MacReady had been assimilated, they wouldn't know their slot got mail?

[Palmer~]

assuming you didn't get assimilated after the fact

Speaking of which... where's the diary entry?

[Palmer~]

For further consideration: getting an inno is worth so much less in this setup than getting a guilty. I can't soft my inno because my role (and possibly my alignment) will not be revealed when I die. And claiming it outright means my target might get assimilated, which renders the inno worthless after Today. So aiming for a guilty is worth the risk of scum assimilating away.

And that's all with the added fact that Windows wasn't even in

that bad

of a position. Only three people had ever voted there (me, Norris, and Nauls), and 2 of those were also suspected by the game.

Pedit: Yeah, that too. If my goal was to get Windows eliminated as scum, I'd do it in a way that doesn't involve locking the vig onto me.

[Palmer~]

Fuchs, I'm still open to talking with you about your scumread of me, if you want.

[Palmer~]

623 is... interesting.

Which is also why I reacted this way to petapan's explanation.

If we believe Childs to be a novice vigilante and to still be human, I am not entirely opposed to burning me today, and then Windows being shot once I flip town.

I haven't yet processed Lars's death or the fact that Childs is still alive, though. On my reread during the Night, I wasn't feeling like Lars is scum.

Even though I think it's unlikely, I do want to confirm first that Childs hasn't been turned into one of them. And also for them to confirm that they are actually capable of shooting tonight, because it would be a tragedy if a scum assimilated away from the guilty.

And also for them to confirm that they are actually capable of shooting tonight,

Wouldn't aa newly-scum Childs say they were able to do this regardless?

Well, due to Childs' distinct posting style on Day 1, I am assuming we'll be able to recognize if they're newly-scum.

Look at me rushing the guilty through, guys.

[Palmer~]

Mind you, I'll only shoot if I have to, since, well.

Well, in the current situation, I think you very well do have to shoot if the town misses Today.

Which... Even if I do get eliminated Today, then Windows is confirmed scum upon my green flip. Either:

- Childs is town, shoots Windows, Windows dies.
- Childs is scum, obviously cannot shoot anyone. There is only one death tomorrow, confirming both Windows and Childs as scum - with one of them having assimilated away, and the other being confirmed scum still in their own body.

Okay, no matter how you slice it, we end up with one dead scum. Very cool.

[Palmer~]

Mind you, I'll only shoot if I have to, since, well.

Well, in the current situation, I think you very well do have to shoot if the town misses Today.

Which... Even if I do get eliminated Today, then Windows is confirmed scum upon my green flip. Either:

- Childs is town, shoots Windows, Windows dies.
- Childs is scum, obviously cannot shoot anyone. There is only one death tomorrow, confirming both Windows and Childs as scum - with one of them having assimilated away, and the other being confirmed scum still in their own body.

Okay, no matter how you slice it, we end up with one dead scum. Very cool.

Fuchs, I think part of your "Palmer is scum with Childs" calculation is off. Can you read this post and tell me what you think?

[Palmer~]

Windows is town, and Palmer is scum with Childs. No scum dies. 0 scum dead, 1 town dead

Fuchs, I know you scumread me, but can you at least acknowledge my posts? This part is inaccurate. A scum elimination is forced the Day after.

[Palmer~]

Windows is town, and Palmer is scum with Childs. No scum dies. 0 scum dead, 1 town dead

Fuchs, I know you scumread me, but can you at least acknowledge my posts? This part is inaccurate. A scum elimination is forced the Day after.

@Fuchs. Assume I'm scum and Childs is scum. We eliminate Windows, he flips town. I'm confirmed scum. During the Night, only one death happens, Childs is confirmed scum.

We are both confirmed scum.

We cannot both assimilate away from our slots.

Whoever stays in their slot, gets eliminated the Day after.

Do you understand that this plan, even in the BEST CASE scenario for scum!me (being partnered with Childs) still results in a forced scum death?

Pedit: Ah fuck, did I forget about no-kills and protectives? I may have. Whatever, the order of business is still convincing you all I'm town.

[Palmer~]

because my planning and sorting for you and windows hinges pretty heavily around Childs.

Why? Even if Childs has been assimilated, that doesn't instantly make me scum or Windows town.

My current thoughts are that Childs is still town.

[Palmer~]

Based off of what?

Based off the fact that they have been consistently putting out posts that exactly match the tone I'd expect them to have, and they've also been doing it real-time and with content that obviously isn't pre-prepared?

[Palmer~]

Because Thing!Childs drastically changes the calculus on whether you would do this

Does it? Even if we got Windows eliminated Today, we'd have to do the whole "Palmer peaces out, Childs claims to shoot Palmer" scenario. Which I didn't even think of, but obviously you don't have to believe me. And then Childs very probably gets eliminated anyway.

[Palmer~]

Palmer, maybe you answered this, but why did you target Windows?

My thought process was as follows:

First,

innocent results are completely useless in this setup

. Roles don't flip, and my alignment potentially doesn't either - I cannot leave crumbs and softs that people will pick up on after I'm dead. So the only way of making my result known is either outright claiming it, or very VERY strongly hinting at it.

Except, if I do that, then the innocent result is only valid on Day 2. Even if we assume that scum didn't already assimilate into the scummy town slot I checked... they have eyes. They can see that I'd be hinting at a clear. And the possibility of them having assimilated into the slot I checked as town, means that the slot is no longer actually checked as town.

So the goal was to get a guilty, and pray that scum doesn't end up assimilating away from it.

My first assumption was that there is going to be scum on Clark's wagon. The way she was playing, and my own feelings on the gamestate made me think that. Scum loves bussing. So I narrowed my cop shot pool to [Garry, Blair, Lars, Fuchs, Bennings, Windows, Nauls].

My second assumption was that scum wasn't going to push Clark right out the gate and continuously through to the elimination. So I ended up removing Garry and Blair. Fuchs I thought was town for his push on me and the vote in 393, Lars I thought was town for the EoD discussion with me, Nauls I was continuously townreading, and upon skimming his ISO again, I didn't feel like I was wrong on that.

So it was down to Bennings and Windows. I searched their ISOs for "Clark" and "vote:" to see if there's anything interesting I missed. Bennings' ISO barely mentions Clark, but there is this odd jump onto Clark in 567 and 569. This looked too on the nose for scum that's bussing. Windows' ISO has a lot more mentions of Clark, but they're not actually talking with her, they're weirdly... explaining around her slot - 242, 485, 523, 587. None of this gave me an honest impression of Windows trying to sort the slot, it mostly seemed like busywork and trying to appear like he's solving. And compare Windows' jump onto Clark in 587 with Bennings' in 567 and tell me which one looks more like scum trying to give fake confidence and towncred for their vote.

And I guess there was still the things I was scumreading Windows on Day 1, the ISO reminded me of that too. So I decided to trust myself and cop Windows.

[Palmer~]

Assimilation does not grant a thing access to the previous player's role information or night actions. Any private messages sent to or from the previous occupant would be wiped.

Palmer seems so sure, yet is so wrong. It makes no sense to me.

Honestly I feel like petapan might have slipped an unreliable cop in here. It would only barely be bastard given this theme and setup. I want to believe Childs and Palmer are scumbuddies but I just don't.

VOTE: Copper who's dipped out of the whole of today and was my scumread yesterday.

To quote myself from the movie:

"You gotta be fucking kidding."

[Palmer~]

In case anyone is wondering: my role PM, paraphrasing, states that I can target a player and learn whether they're a human or a thing. From what I understand, the only way Windows can be town here is if he's a miller who is not aware of the fact that he's a miller. Which, well, if that ends up being the case... Pray for petapan, because he's gonna need it.

[Palmer~]

Anyway, my thoughts on Day 1, with the knowledge that Windows is scum: all of Garry, Blair, MacReady, Fuchs, Nauls, Norris, Copper, Childs are town. Which, hm, now that I typed it out. Either the scumteam is exactly Bennings/Windows, or I'm misreading someone.

And this is purposefully not talking about assimilations, because I don't currently feel like anyone is significantly different, which is a blow to my confidence about determining assimilations. Or they actually did kill town-Lars to make us paranoia townie slots. I don't know.

[Palmer~]

Also, it's kind of funny to see Windows arguing that it's "objectively" correct to burn me first because of "mechanics"... When what are the assumptions for me being scum?

- The team is exactly Clark/Palmer/Childs. (I think it's fair to assume neither of me and Childs got newly assimilated, due to Childs being Childs, and me pointing out a D1 soft.)

- Once Clark claimed, I tried to shut down any other potential claims, focus on dayplay, and get Clark eliminated. WHILE Childs jumped in and claimed a confirmable town power role.

- On Day 2, we decided to fakeclaim a guilty on an already somewhat scummy slot. And Childs decided to confirm they can still shoot tonight. Which means that, even if Palmer wins the 1v1, Palmer has to assimilate away, and Childs has to claim the shot, and claim that scum no-killed or the kill got saved. You know how that ends?

Whereas the assumptions needed for Windows to be scum it: Windows got redchecked by a cop.

[Palmer~]

Should we make Childs shoot to confirm themselves when Windows flips scum, though? We know they shot town if the game doesn't end, and it's probably a good idea to confirm the slot as town?

[Palmer~]

You think Windows/Copper can be S/S? Windows' insistence on D1 that Copper made a contradiction didn't seem like it to me... Not to mention that Clark and Windows were voting Copper as a CW to Clark for quite a bit of D1.

[Palmer~]

I'm more interested in a claim from him, personally. My only worry, I guess, is that this feels too easy...

Garry, did you have any other conclusions after your N1 reread?