New Year Dance Party [afterparty]

[midwaybear]

i will just sheep whatever baltar read GL lands on tbh im not confident anymore

another thing that pinged me about VPB is his dynamic with UNOwen
753 - autoaccept that comes out of nowhere. Every single other pairing had a sort of "story" behind it so UNOwen proposing to VPB out of the blue already is a bit shady (still town in my eyes tho), but then VPB accepting it without a doubt is worse imo
859 - questions me why UNOwen is weird
1043 - asks fire what is townie about UNOwen
The most suspicious thing about the last two posts is that VPB doesn't seem to actively be trying to read UNOwen (which I would expect to be a huge priority). Almost everybody else has a moment where they're actively considering the alignment of their partner, but VPB legit doesn't. Just two weak sauce questions.
The one potentially redeeming point is: 993
UNOwen, let us know what's going on inside the PT so far.

[Aristeia]

why does it even matter what Unowen's alignment is to Baltar at that point in time?

Baltar's a lady. Getting a match is more important than checking to make sure the player he's matching with is town.

If Unowen is mafia, he's getting paired with someone regardless of whether Baltar reads him correctly.

[Aristeia]

Hypothetically speaking if Baltar is town and Unowen is mafia, how does Baltar scumreading Unowen correctly before the pairing really do anything?

Like let's say Baltar reads Unowen and decides Unowen's mafia.

What's he supposed to do then? If he says no I don't want to dance with you, Unowen!Scum just goes and picks another lady and baltar gets flipped and then ???

If Baltar pairs with Unowen and then decides later in the PT that Unowen is mafia, he can just press leave and Unowen gets flipped.

Like I don't really see a scenario where it's better to be picky instead of just grabbing the first proposal that comes your way unless you want to like endgame and everyone thinks you're town.

[Firebringer]

funny enough i decided not to pair with a pair in dance game before and said that the last person was scum and should immediately be flipped if i were to dance with them. I was not picked and the other person was pocketed aftewards.

Should have kept quiet and danced then left immediately after.

Lessons learned

[midwaybear]

why does it even matter what Unowen's alignment is to Baltar at that point in time?

Hmm the problem with my analysis is that im not sure how caught up VPB was at that time. Cuz if VPB was aware that UNOwen was so lurky, there's no shot VPB accepts UNOwen without hesitation. I get that you always want to be pairing as town, but there's still a natural doubt/consulting, especially as the final few pairs are being formed. Absent.
Although if VPB had no clue, then sure ig it's ok.

But once VPB accepts, no way town!VPB should seemingly care so little about sorting UNOwen.
Like 859 implies he doesn't even know UNOwen had barely any posts, which I expect him to have know by then??

[Aristeia]

Is fire not a substance player as scum too?

And like that seems like a read that you would probably sit on for a bit this early in the game to see how things develop rather than just throw it out there and let potential fire!scum know you're noticing a content difference.

I.e. I'm not sure it feels real to me.

I think there's a nonzero chance I'm the old maid here, so I wanted to put my reads out there. I also missed a lot when I was out today, so figure I need to give people some insight into my reads so they have some way to read me in case I do stick around.

i think his pov was that there's 2 gents left and 3 ladies so he has a 1/3 chance of getting flipped and he doesn't really care who picks him as long as he gets picked which makes sense regardless of his alignment.

[GuiltyLion]

I like to be sure when i proclaim whether you are in fact town or scum.

Norwee can you link me to some games you and Shirou have played together

I'm gonna be real frank with you this claim and the larger overall post I quoted it from feel a little too guarded to me, I don't remember thinking of you as a particularly cautious player

[GuiltyLion]

I wish we could just leave like Uno or Irrel out

I have a hunch that one of these players is scum

probably Irrel

[GuiltyLion]

i think ari is kinda scummy (vibes) and i don't really like meuh's approach to reading her it feels kinda fake to me

i like shea poking around about both of those so maybe towny there

midway is an ehhh but didn't really like meuh's poke there either

enchant and cakez are probably both town

unowen town vibes

sort of townlean ausuka now too

Okay

idk if this is just me over reading into tone or something

but why are all your reads so waffle sounding

"Kinda scummy"
"Maybe towny"
"Ehhhh"
"Probably town"
Etc etc

I get it's early but I don't see why your stances are so uncertain

feel inclined to give town points to fireisred for this, I don't know if Cakez is likely to include the bolded if he's Doing Theater

[GuiltyLion]

Almost every irrel post seems so performative.

ik what you mean, but I also liked his read of you in 820 cuz it seems like such a uniquely town way to make a read on someone

hmmm

if we assume TSQ is town, why do you think scum!Irrelephant isn't capable of coming up with that kind of reasoning for townreading TSQ?

[GuiltyLion]

This game feels harder than usual to me, I don't have any solid town leans other than maybe Enchant and I ethically dislike my own reason for reading him that way. Fun fact is that I probably would e scum reading GuiltyLion right now if he wasn't IC. Why it feels like you have so much less presence than usual in this game GL? From what little I know of you all, you're one of if not the best scumhuter in this PL. You performed well in our last game.

So is it just because it's New Year and you're busy elsewhere or there's a reason for you having less presence here?

this is 100% a pointless conversation but yah, it was a holiday and I had a lot of free time that I spent doing other stuff - I will be more motivated to play as I get back into a normal work week routine

also being conftown means I can be a bit lazier and not feel obligated to effort in order to towntell, so that's impacted it a bit I am sure

[GuiltyLion]

It would be a big "coincidence" if his recent past performance and roll rate as scum perfectly fit what that post tries to express if he was scumclaiming as a last post.

It may or not be the case but I think the odds are pretty high. Maybe we shouldn't risk embarrassingly game throwing if this is all true?

Eh, seems like a reach and psychologizing. I understand not wanting to be left out of the game regardless of alignment

this makes me think town!VPB because I believe scum are usually more reticent to post half ass defense of a partner about to die like this, feels more likely to be coming from a player that is uninformed of mafia!Cakez

[GuiltyLion]

However also, the disappointment that Cakez felt at not being chosen at the last minute is likely real, even asking midway why they chose you in the end.

"I got wrecked again" he said. It's psychologically something that sounds like he felt outplayed by midway rather than a elaborated scum theater he would know in advance.

super good content, I'm inclined to agree with this

[GuiltyLion]

The mod team better not be up to something funny.
Anyway good job Shirou, very good catch. Shirou is pretty much 100% town now.
"But Norwee, how did they know Cakez would flip scum there? This might just be some really clever scum distancing" <- No, shut up.

VOTE: NorwegianboyEE

[GuiltyLion]

I find norwee pretty town for this post. Doesn't feel like there's much incentive to throw a tr on Shirou here as scum

nah Shirou is just obvious town and Norwee's post is exactly the kind of post scum makes when they want to look town by townreading the obvious town but wind up still sounding awkward about it - "pretty much 100% town now" - was Norwee doubting town!Shirou before? he asserted he has a very familiar sense of how Shirou thinks (1052), so why is he still hedging his read ("pretty much" 100%? those things don't go together?) instead of just being more upfront about how Shirou is obvious town?

and the last part of 1179, who is that addressed to? the only person who had indicated any possible suspicion on Shirou post flip was Shea, why is Norwee grandstanding to an audience instead of talking to Shea directly?

[GuiltyLion]

he's so serious and solvy and hasn't even posted a story or flirted or anything I'm honestly kind of sad.

this is a bit odd since I don't see him being serious and solvey in the main thread

why do you think he's doing that in the PT and not here? what's his solve currently?

[GuiltyLion]

i will just sheep whatever baltar read GL lands on tbh im not confident anymore

I'm currently feeling town but it's not really near HoD levels of confidence

I think some of the off vibe might be because he got a late entry/foothold into the game and is playing catchup

I def don't think he's the right first lim though, what do you think of Norwee/Ari pair

[GuiltyLion]

ok my reads are around here:

town: {Shirou, Ydra, FB, midwaybear, UNOwen, TSQ}
town?: {STD, fireisredsir, Ari, VPB, Meuh}
meh: {Enchant, furtive, Irrel}
scum: {Norwee}

I don't love these reads because I have a few too many people in that second tier that I feel are generally townie but not bankable as town, and I'm kinda hurting for solid scumreads outside of Norwee. But I think Norwee is pretty clearly scummy so maybe we can just use him as a lever to find his teammates

if you're buddies with Norwee now is the exact time you should be bussing to get towncred, if you are not initially receptive to this push then I will award you no town credit if you wind up voting him later!

[fireisredsir]

i have more of a scumread on ari than on norwee but i think last dance game i voted for a pairing that had scum in it based on scumreading the town partner like multiple times

[fireisredsir]

i actually haven't really absorbed much of anything norwee himself has posted but i thought drapion was like slightly town and mostly i just thought ari was scum taking advantage of the fact that drapion if town was likely to be loud and obvious town to people who just played with him and also unlikely to actually turn on ari

[fireisredsir]

rereading, i don't remember why i had drapion as slightly town tbh

[GuiltyLion]

tbh I briefly entertained the idea of it being a S/S pair - don't think it's likely tho because I think that's pretty bad for scum to try to all-in like that (especially Drapion seems like a teammate you'd want to bus rather than endgame) - but the main oddness with Ari that I can't get over is that comment about Norwee being serious/solvey in the PT, really curious what's going on in that PT and what Ari's read on Norwee is overall

I guess if I'm wrong on Norwee I could see a universe where that's pockety too, namely I just can't square it with a world where Ari is townie and trying to solve her partner because it's so obviously incongruent with what Norwee has done in the main thread so far and if I were town and my partner was solving in the PT and doing nothing in the main thread it'd be red flag city

[GuiltyLion]

Enchant is a player that is likely to leave their partner at an early time as town so they are objectively the best choice to leave out assuming all three remaining are town.
I would select Baltar and Cakez as final pairings and then solve the game from there.

I doubt there's gonna be anything more useful to get from Enchant.

I was getting impatient myself, but making my partner have to wait? That's unacceptable.
Midway, make your decision with haste!

I don't think that kind of thinking is in Enchant's scumrange, he is pretty straight foward as scum in my experience.

Alright, but it's pretty bad play to not accept. From Enchant's POV as town it should always be favorable to kill Cakez over themselves here. Especially if a lot of players in the game trust them over Cakez.

these posts look bad too, they're all softly pushing to bring Cakez into the dance instead of Enchant but done in this Enchant-centric way where it's discrediting/shading him instead of taking any kind of position on Cakez. Easy to imagine coming from a buddy who knows Cakez is mafia and doesn't want to explicitly push to save him in a way they know would look noticeable if Cakez were to flip

[fireisredsir]

yea i was just reading those i think id agree with that

[GuiltyLion]

But if you're going i'd like it if you at least explained why you trust Cakez to be town.

also

why does town want a dying Enchant's thoughts on Cakez in particular here - the only explanation is if Norwee thinks Enchant is a particularly reliable/accurate Cakez reader, which is ??

we know this question can't really be meant to sort Enchant, because in this world Enchant is about to flip anyway ("if [Enchant is] going")

yet I can't help but think that if Enchant writes a town case for Cakez and then flips town, that's a nice little parting gift to the mafia team