Open 870 | White Flag Mountainous | Postgame

[Gimli]

I hate quoting on the new site btw, it's cluttering the thread and it's hard to edit on phone

[furtiveglance]

im worried about the possible world where furtive is town

makes this a loss when it really shouldn't be

'possible world'

No matter the result of this game, I will have things to say in post. Seriously the scumreads on me are next level BS and I can't wait for postgame or dead thread to console me

furtive, serious question
Why should I be townreading your slot *outside* of your push on TGP yesterday?
I don't think a bus from you on TGP yesterday is unrealistic

I thought your general demeanor and confidence was towny yesterday, but considered as a whole, your tone has been really consistent in a worrying way. Your confidence feels like a facade because it's no different from how you were yesterday.

I think it's entirely possible that it's a facade of confidence coming from town. But it definitely doesn't feel genuine.

So talk to me. What kind of confidence do you *actually* have on your current reads?
What are you doing differently here as town that you wouldn't do as scum?

Bolded is what's weighing on me now

Is it really

Let's say a player has x confidence. If they're right about a day's elimination, especially mafia, will that confidence increase or decrease?

Your confidence seems manufactured and not real towny evaluating, it has no nuance it has no distrust or second guessing itself. You talk about being right about one slot as if this is your first ride.

It is my first ride this game. 1/1

[petapan]

Vote Count 3.03

Pico de Orizaba
Veracruz, Mexico
Elevation: 5,636 meters

fireisredsir (3):

Cat Scratch Fever, Lazy Shirou, NorwegianboyEE

Gimli (1):

furtiveglance

Not Voting (5):

fireisredsir, Gimli, giuseppina, Klick, Toto

With 9 alive, it's 5 to eliminate.

Deadline for Day 3 is January 31 at 6:30 PM EST.

Deadline Timer:

(expired on 2023-01-31 18:30:00)

[Toto]

Im not seeing the where the confidence on Gimly scum is coming from. How else would you expect town!gimly to react here?

Do you generally push your reads like this as town?

[fireisredsir]

im probably voting there in spirit but i don't have interest in ending the day soon so im not voting yet

I don't like this, it feels like you were waiting for people to start going after my slot so you could readjust your treatment of it

furtive got a lot townier imo

and i also started to doubt that shirou might be scum

my poe of those two + klick + you was given in like my first post of the day

talking to furtive also made me go back and take another look at your and lucian's posts

i think saying that i was just waiting for others to push there before i did ignores the context of the situation. i didn't take you from a townread to a scumread, i took you from like 3rd priority to 2nd or 1st priority

[furtiveglance]

Im not seeing the where the confidence on Gimly scum is coming from. How else would you expect town!gimly to react here?

Do you generally push your reads like this as town?

I haven't felt like this in a while

[furtiveglance]

Im not seeing the where the confidence on Gimly scum is coming from. How else would you expect town!gimly to react here?

Do you generally push your reads like this as town?

I haven't felt like this in a while

But Gimli would have more to say

[Gimli]

im probably voting there in spirit but i don't have interest in ending the day soon so im not voting yet

I don't like this, it feels like you were waiting for people to start going after my slot so you could readjust your treatment of it

furtive got a lot townier imo

and i also started to doubt that shirou might be scum

my poe of those two + klick + you was given in like my first post of the day

talking to furtive also made me go back and take another look at your and lucian's posts

i think saying that i was just waiting for others to push there before i did ignores the context of the situation. i didn't take you from a townread to a scumread, i took you from like 3rd priority to 2nd or 1st priority

Okay, I think it's interesting because you've been vocalizing a townread on me throughout the game, which I thought... I think, for the most part, had the nuance of a townread coming from a townie and not some form of pocketing. and then you begin to change your position wrt my slot, including how you've been treating my predecessor. And it feels like it's opportunistic, you know, cause if anyone is getting limmed today it's not shirou or furtive, and the same things they've been doing all game you're townreading now. But yeah idk.

Who's scum in your wagon?

[Cat Scratch Fever]

Replacing giuseppina.

hm

it's me again isn't it

i'm sorry i'm a petulant child that keeps screaming until i get what i want but idk if i can ever change or if i want to change bc if neither of fire/furt is scum this game is wild and i want to see it with my own eyes asap

I'm about to blow your mind

I don't think Fire is mafia. I re-read Ari/Fire and I don't think so

What prompted you to change this read?

[Cat Scratch Fever]

CSF talk about your read on me

Your town case on TGP didn't make that much sense to me. The things you were describing as towny in 2053 seemed more scum indicative (i was reading that same progression as scummy). I'd understand it more if you had other reasons for townreading TGP and were therefore already predisposed to townreading him for other reasons, but i didn't think there was a lot more behind your TR. I think you were quite generous in your tgp read, maybe too generous

That and Std death worries me

[Cat Scratch Fever]

It's like- i got the impression that you looked at TGP's posts and found reasons to townread it because you wanted to instead of looking at it more objectively

[Klick]

I'm feeling philosophical tonight. Tonight would be a fun time to have a chat with me.

Starting in about an hour I'm going to be invested in this game for the rest of the night

[fireisredsir]

Okay, I think it's interesting because you've been vocalizing a townread on me throughout the game, which I thought... I think, for the most part, had the nuance of a townread coming from a townie and not some form of pocketing. and then you begin to change your position wrt my slot, including how you've been treating my predecessor. And it feels like it's opportunistic, you know, cause if anyone is getting limmed today it's not shirou or furtive, and the same things they've been doing all game you're townreading now. But yeah idk.

Who's scum in your wagon?

furtive i don't think is doing the same thing he's been doing all game at all, his approach is different and townier imo, and i think his mindset makes more sense to me now which was the main issue i had before

shirou never really directly engaged with me prior to this in a way that felt meaningful, and to me his previous kinda dodging the points i was making seemed scummy to me. his engagement with me here felt more like he had a town attitude behind it. im still not sure though that was just kinda my immediate reaction. it's possible he faked it

i never really felt strongly about my read on your slot, i p much always had you as just a town lean and although your entrance to the thread felt similar to how you were in dance, you never really reached the point of towniness you did there where it felt like you were really trying to solve the game and move things forward. i think if you're town it is still possible that you can show that which is part of why i don't want to end the day soon since you've said you'll be less busy soon

of the people pushing for my elim i think klick is most likely to be scum. i think csf is the least likely. shirou is shirou. i have no idea what norwee is doing and if im misclearing anyone in the game it's him

[Gimli]

You're townreading all the three people voting you? That's hard to believe given the gamestate.

As for your other points, fine. But you needed shirou to interact with you to townread him, and he only had meaningful interactions with you when he started to hard scumcase you! This is backwards logic iiam.

I'll have more time for this game tomorrow.

[NorwegianboyEE]

i have no idea what norwee is doing

I'm voting you.

[Klick]

my strongest opinions are that giuseppina and csf are town.

I agree with these at about the same level of confidence fwiw; CSF is basically never scum here and I find giuseppina's early content very unlikely to come from scum

i also believe toto is likely town,

Toto is question marks for me at this moment; why

and i think norwee is likely town despite my hesitations there.

Thus far I've largely sheeped Shirou's townread of Norwee but I think I want to consider not doing that tonight and developing an independent read there

for everyone else, there's been times where ive thought theyre scum and there's been times where ive thought they're town

I'd like to hear more in-depth thoughts from you about Shirou. Why are both town and scum still options you're considering for his play in this game?

i think it's weird to treat that like it's an indictment. town doesn't have all the answers. im still trying to figure things out. im not voting anyone rn bc i don't think i have things figured out

Something I've thought about a lot recently is the fact that even though there are several different theories about who scum might be throughout discussion in a Mafia game, at the end of the day there's one scumteam. Only one solution fits, and that solution with certainty is the only one that fully explains what's going on in the game. (CSF might recognise that the whole MMR situation in Cosmos has inspired a lot of my thoughts in this area - though luckily most situations are much less complex than that!)

I'm frustrated by 'maybe this is scummy' as an approach essentially. I feel like it's easily abusable and you fit the profile of someone I'd expect to try and use that as a scum tactic.

I normally don't have much confidence in direct dialogue about reads as an effective tool for reading someone, but I feel like it could work with you

[Klick]

My post earlier about the site change was a meme, but seriously this format change has completely screwed with my ability to process things
I have used MS how it was two days ago for over ten years, I've gotten so used to it and I feel lost

[fireisredsir]

You're townreading all the three people voting you? That's hard to believe given the gamestate.

As for your other points, fine. But you needed shirou to interact with you to townread him, and he only had meaningful interactions with you when he started to hard scumcase you! This is backwards logic iiam.

I'll have more time for this game tomorrow.

you're treating reads as a binary

they're not

i don't townread shirou. i started to townread him more than i had previously after that specific interaction with him. imo he's probably 3rd or 4th most likely to be scum?

[Klick]

CSF talk about your read on me

Your town case on TGP didn't make that much sense to me. The things you were describing as towny in 2053 seemed more scum indicative (i was reading that same progression as scummy). I'd understand it more if you had other reasons for townreading TGP and were therefore already predisposed to townreading him for other reasons, but i didn't think there was a lot more behind your TR. I think you were quite generous in your tgp read, maybe too generous

That and Std death worries me

Most of my reads tend to be based on singular points that I find to make someone rather likely town or scum

The main reason I expressed the TGP read strongly was because I believed he had a genuine progression on Shirou, and I felt as though without action there was a decent chance he'd get wagoned to a hammer like Una was
I wanted to get my thoughts out before that happened

I can tell you though that I don't think I would actively choose to remove STD from this game

[fireisredsir]

i also believe toto is likely town,

Toto is question marks for me at this moment; why

i can re-iso later to see if i still feel that, but i haven't felt like he's ever been under any pressure to perform as towny. that's more of a vibe thing i guess, but i think he's generally been on a good track this game and ive agreed with his view of the game at multiple points. his reactions to things feel pretty natural

just based on playstyle i don't think i can ever be that confident in reading him town but im leaning that way

[fireisredsir]

for everyone else, there's been times where ive thought theyre scum and there's been times where ive thought they're town

I'd like to hear more in-depth thoughts from you about Shirou. Why are both town and scum still options you're considering for his play in this game?

because i still believe that the majority of the game he has been more focused on control and how people perceive him than on sorting and solving the game. that to me feels like it comes from scum. i also think that there's been a few points in the game that feel like they make more sense coming from a scum agenda than a town one

i think the latest back and forth i had with him was the strongest place where i really felt the opposite. it felt like he genuinely did want to solve the game and that he was willfully looking past alternatives but... in a town way? idk how to describe that exactly, maybe it's a bad take. but he did a good job of faking that feeling if he's scum

probably the main reason i find shirou difficult to sort is that his motivations for what he does as town are imo pretty different from most players and often kinda look similar to a playstyle that would be very effective as scum. that makes it hard for me to find places where i can really confidently think "this is definitely coming from town" or "this is definitely coming from scum"

that said, i thought (correctly) he was very obvtown in the previous game i played with him and never really had any doubts. so the fact that i haven't felt that way at all this game is concerning to me

[fireisredsir]

Something I've thought about a lot recently is the fact that even though there are several different theories about who scum might be throughout discussion in a Mafia game, at the end of the day there's one scumteam. Only one solution fits, and that solution with certainty is the only one that fully explains what's going on in the game. (CSF might recognise that the whole MMR situation in Cosmos has inspired a lot of my thoughts in this area - though luckily most situations are much less complex than that!)

I'm frustrated by 'maybe this is scummy' as an approach essentially. I feel like it's easily abusable and you fit the profile of someone I'd expect to try and use that as a scum tactic.

it's true that there's only one answer but there's been very few times that i or anyone has actually gotten that answer completely correct in the early-mid game

i could play where i just tunnel my most confident reads but i don't enjoy that at all and it isn't really an honest reflection of how i view the game

honestly i don't really see how 'maybe this is scummy' is any more of an effective scum tactic than brazen confidence and hard pushing. i think nuance and constantly re-evaluating and rethinking things is a lot harder to fake as mafia

i don't even think it's very useful either, people townread confidence. i usually try to project more confidence as scum than i would have as town. it usually gets more townread and it also is more successful at yeeting town

if you just sit there as scum and say "idk maybe this maybe that" you aren't accomplishing anything, so no, i don't really agree

[fireisredsir]

what was your thought process on seeing the tgp flip? how did it change how you approached this day phase compared to your previous view of the game?

and can you summarize your reasons for suspecting me? i don't really have a clear idea of what they are. you said most of your reads are based on individual posts that you find strongly ai. what are the most strongly ai posts in your view from me/ari?

[Klick]

Temp 38.8, lots of shivering. :/

[fireisredsir]

i have no idea what norwee is doing

I'm voting you.

why?