Hollow Knight Mafia [game over]

[Aristeia]

I think the way Cakez responded to Ari's reaction to cakesz vote (873 and on) was believable. As in, cakez seems towny. But I dont think he's right

what do you mean?

[Morning Tweet]

Black is also I don't know but not for a lack of content, or even a lack of noticing, its just that their posts were just on the heavier side for me Lol. I didn't even realize i forgot

I may as well

Oh my fucking god I remember

Spoiler: Mild furtive case

I'm getting bad vibes from furtive after finally giving myself time to ISO him. There is some correlation here with my minor suspicions of Ari, and now I'm not so sure about Fire.

actually yeah I think [Aristeia's] early progression on Fire was towny

This is furtive's most recent comment, and what led me to do the ISO in the first place. He made this revelation after I questioned him about his reaction to SirCakes voting for Aristeia (#638). Furtive came running to Ari's defense in #638 once SirCakes voted for her for "having 0 town posts in her entire ISO" (#611). This was the first time Furtive has communicated any reads on Ari, even though he was given the chance to earlier in the game. I'll get to that in a second. But first I want to emphasize here that Furtive's reasoning for calling SirCake's vote "unfair" is that Ari in fact

did

have a town post in her ISO, and it was her first post in the game, during the joke phase: #66

Not having your ducks in a row reads-wise (like, not really being organized about what you feel and instead just going with what you think at the time) always comes across as towny to me. Also, #638 was NOT furtive's first post about Ari, he expresses a townlean in #497 -- but yes, he didn't elaborate on that till later.

This is the only town post Furtive can reference in all of Ari's ISO? This leads me to the beginning of the game. Furtive got some pretty unjustified heat for not providing any reads, but when he defended himself, he said he didn't have any: #282. Here Furtive says he "didn't have anything to comment on" and "if I see something I'll say something." We now know he thought the Ari vote on Fire was towny, so why wouldn't he say something about it here? His only read in #282 is that his initial vote against Fire was serious and that "Fire would enjoy posting like that more as scum than town." Keep in mind here that Furtive admits he thinks Fire is kind of scummy.

This feels nitpicky, you could say the same about any read ever, couldn't you? Like, "if you thought X was towny why didn't you say it at the timE?" could apply to a huge amount of players and reads probably. And if your point is that he said he felt it was towny back then, it feels a bit nitpicky to pin someone over exactly when they got a townread, at least in this instance

Furtive's next notable move is to switch his vote from Fire to the Klick wagon in #303. Furtive's vote is the 4th vote on the wagon Klick wagon, which was started by Fire, followed by Aristeia and Morning Tweet. The scumread against Klick was essentially non-existent and boiled down to Klick guessing MT's intentions correctly. It's strange to me that Furtive would vote Klick here, especially considering he should have gotten a townread from Klick from #81. Furtive thinks Ari's vote on Fire was towny, but not Klick's?

You know who else voted for Fire early? RedFF, in #86. What's notable here is that both Klick and redFF appear at the very bottom of Furtive's Scum List. Aristeia is in the middle of the list, despite Furtive admitting recently that he had a townread on her from her Fire vote. I'm confused why Furtive didn't townread Klick and RedFF for their Fire votes. And Fire, interestingly enough, is at the top of the list, despite Furtive being suspicious of him earlier. The only thing that changed was Fire's weak case against Klick. That was apparently enough to move Fire from the bottom of the list to the top?

I think your argument goes something along the lines of "Why don't furtive's reads match the votes exactly?" And I feel like that is an easy question to answer, just because someone is voting for a scumread you have or agrees on a townread that you have, doesn't make them town. Why *should* furtive townread them for joining him, rather than suspecting them for bussing? I get that this changes on a case by case basis but my point is that reads and votes dont always line up, a mismatch doesnt necessarily indicate scum. I actually probably lean it indicates town more because again I think scum reads the game in a more simple and static way. Like for instance "I should townread these players because they are voting for my scumread" and "I should scumread this person because they are disagreeing with my expressed reads"

Furtive's Scum List:

Sorry for ruining the game by ending it so early because my reads are that good

{Datisi}

{FireKinger, SirCakez, Taly, VP Baltar}

{Alisae, Aristeia, Gimli, Morning Tweet, Mistyx}

{Asri Teroka, Lycanfire, petapan}

{Black, CSF}

{Klick, redFF}

{My new avatar}

Black could have endgamed in a historic win but I had to stop that

I don't like this flip on Fire, especially when both Fire and Furtive have openly discussed how Fire would play as scum. And it just so happens Fire is actually playing that way. Bold is my emphasis:

I don't know - I had thoughts, my vote on Firebringer wasn't a joke, but it's not the strongest read either -

just that I think he would enjoy posting like that more as scum than town

. Whether or not I 'go hard' also can depend on my current mood and schedule as well

We would all do better to take an internet forum game less seriously. I approve of this mentality.
I can also vibe with the not letting team down thing,

its the only thing that kind of sucks about playing scum. But then I eventually figure my team wants to have more fun than to win or at least they should. So then i don't feel so bad about when im playing bad as scum

if everyone took my philisophy of playing mafia and just ran with it.
Everyone would enjoy the game.

But then the number of scum claiming in games would probably break the game

and we would all be hunting players who try to even pretend to be townie. Would either be horrifying or interesting to see.

I found these three comments interesting. Furtive admits that Fire would enjoy posting the way he did at the beginning of the game moreso if he were scum. And Fire admits that he doesn't like to let his team down when playing scum, but that his team would rather have fun than win, so he still feels good about doing things like scumclaiming as scum. In the second quote from Fire, he's saying more people would enjoy the game if they scumclaimed as scum. If Fire eventually flips wolf (which, again, I'm not sure of and it probably depends on furtive's/Ari's alignment), this will be read as Fire trying to excuse his early game actions.

Furtive's next big move is to leave the Klick wagon in #590 and vote for redFF, conveniently right after Fire abandons it in #502 to also vote for redFF.

tis i, Radiance

Scumclaim Radiance. Nice.

Klick you're looking radiant

You like to mention Radiant a lot. Is it on your mind from your role PM?

Which Hollow Knight characters do people think are mafia

Are we even allowed to talk about it

I don't like this comment

MT is Town Taly that vote sucks!

I don't like this either. How are you so sure?

Klick is maf, all town wagon, game solved D1

Talking to the town here eh? Trying to get them to wagon Klick off of a swiss-cheese argument?

All of these things, combined with the gut feelings I get from some of his other comments, have made furtive is my top wolf candidate. If I end up being right about this, my attention will turn to Ari and Fire.

VOTE: furtiveglance

Mild case my ass

This seems genuine from Black though. I like furtive still, but just a lean

[furtiveglance]

Sorry for ruining the game by ending it so early because my reads are that good

{Datisi}

{FireKinger, SirCakez, Taly, VP Baltar}

{Alisae, Aristeia, Gimli, Morning Tweet, Mistyx}

{Asri Teroka, Lycanfire, petapan}

{Black, CSF}

{Klick, redFF}

{My new avatar}

Could you elaborate on why Ari didn't make it into your top tier? What made her less town than the 4 above her? She shared your scumread of both Fire and Klick early on, and you just said yourself you tend to think people are really townie when they agree with your scumreads. You both mindmelded over Taly being town in #223 and #399. So what held you back from putting Ari in the top tier?

Speaking of #399. Why didn't you list Ari here as a townread? After all the above, you still didn't get a townread from her??? But we now know you did. Because you just recently admitted you did. So why exclude her from #399?

Spoiler: response

OMGUS AMOGUS

[Morning Tweet]

I gave up on responding to that after a while lol but it feels to me like Black is confirm biasing themself, it seems towny

I think the way Cakez responded to Ari's reaction to cakesz vote (873 and on) was believable. As in, cakez seems towny. But I dont think he's right

what do you mean?

Certainly

VOTE: aristeia this is the wagon we should be doing she literally has made 0 town posts in her entire ISO

your comments are not even remotely accurate and i realize ive been too lax recently in terms of being overly nice to people who push me for completely nonsensical reasons unrooted in reality.

wow this is certainly a reasonable and townie way to react

ok yeah done reading and the scummiest person in the game is still clearly Aristeia. that was one of the worst reactions to a vote i've ever seen.

Like, this is a terrible read from Cakez IMO but he's so sure of it it comes across like he believes it

And then the double-down to your fairly mundane reaction somehow confirming you as scum in Cakez eyes. It's like Cakez is seeing something that isn't there. Which is why I believe that he does see something, he had some kind of interpretation, it seemed genuine

It also seems ridiculously towny because I think Cakez would have gathered that people are townreading Ari and probably would have looked into your posts further before going all in like he did. This is a great way to get attyention and gain nothing. At least how I'm reading it.

Like, the only two game-related posts from Ari are these?

Taly feels really town

i feel the best about TRing Ali, Gimli & Taly

i think klick vpb & redff are all fine places to vote.

id tr firebringer but i dont want him to get mad at me.

the entirety of Ari's scumhunting everyone

Like what???? What happened to the whole section with fire and me?? That felt, at least somewhat noticable. Or the klick wagon.

IDK it feels like Cakez is targetting you because of a reason that makes sense to him and him only. That's my reasoning. I could also just not understand what he finds scummy about you lol

[Mistyx]

TOWN
Morning Tweet
Black
Asri Teroka
Alisae
Firebringer

LEANING TOWN
furtiveglance
SirCakez
redFF
VP Baltar
Cat Scratch Fever

NULL
Gimli
Mistyx
Aristeia
Taly

LEANING SCUM
petapan
Lycanfire

SCUM

what's up with the change in your csf read?

what are you seeing there

[Mistyx]

bad read of me and probably on ari

why do you think my read on ari is probably bad?

[Mistyx]

i have no idea why three separate people went out of their way to call cakez's ari scumread awful

[VP Baltar]

i think one of cakez/lycan being scum is a decent shout

Can you tell me why you feel this way? Were you sussing either of them before the hood came out?

[Mistyx]

i feel like im playing a different game than everyone else again

ig i just haven't gotten into it

kinda wanted to gut call that red post that vp just quoted bad but not really feeling it other than "i think those two slots are where scum are pushing rn" which i dont really have much to back up

[Aristeia]

IDK it feels like Cakez is targetting you because of a reason that makes sense to him and him only. That's my reasoning. I could also just not understand what he finds scummy about you lol

why can't he just be scum who is making up a read and pushing me to try to get townread via refuge in audacity?

for context, the last game I played as town also had sircakes in it- he replaced out fairly early so I'm not sure if he read the entire thing but during d1, I was tunneled by two slots; Klick who was scum and Aubrey who was town and I more or less thought they were town for "believing" that I was scum by virtue of their persistence and devotion to their reads which were utterly nonsensical and not really based in what was going on in the thread.

I don't see why he wouldn't think it would be a good idea to try the same kind of play hoping that I am similarly passive.

When I push back on him and ask him to explain his read - he doesn't really respond.

I don't really think his exaggerated belief in his scumread is townie - if anything it feels performative to me - like he is trying to overplay his confidence in it in order to be townread.

[Aristeia]

VOTE: aristeia this is the wagon we should be doing she literally has made 0 town posts in her entire ISO

Taly feels really town

i feel the best about TRing Ali, Gimli & Taly

i think klick vpb & redff are all fine places to vote.

id tr firebringer but i dont want him to get mad at me.

the entirety of Ari's scumhunting everyone

like this is just disgusting and I would be beyond disappointed if he actually wrote this garbage as town.

I don't think he's town at all. I think he's scum who decided to cough up some word vomit and can't back up any of his thoughts.

[Aristeia]

I think he decided to make up a scumread and just do over the top language to "sound more convincing"

I think he did it because he saw it work on me in a previous game and he thought it would be "fun" for him to do it to me this game.

I read his approach to me and I see not a single post made in good faith.

[redFF]

i think one of cakez/lycan being scum is a decent shout

Can you tell me why you feel this way? Were you sussing either of them before the hood came out?

klick looks town and there's probably a mafia in the neighborhood

[petapan]

Spoiler:

This one likes Red and Klick more than before and feels they might have been right on them? The one called Alisae also seems really really nice and concerned with getting things going so they're good! And Lycan of the Fire, somehow, just feels wholesome? Would like to see their red glory more though, as they and Klick share a hut!

This one is not at all certain if it's voting soon. It wants to vote Baltar, but only because they were mean. Being mean doesn't mean they're traitorous yet, in this one's mind, but it would sure be nice if they are because they were mean!

This one doesn't suspect anyone else enough to vote them, now.

This one likes Red and Klick more than before and feels they might have been right on them? The one called Alisae also seems really really nice and concerned with getting things going so they're good! And Lycan of the Fire, somehow, just feels wholesome? Would like to see their red glory more though, as they and Klick share a hut!

This one is not at all certain if it's voting soon. It wants to vote Baltar, but only because they were mean. Being mean doesn't mean they're traitorous yet, in this one's mind, but it would sure be nice if they are because they were mean!

This one doesn't suspect anyone else enough to vote them, now.

Do you plan to vote someone at some point here at the very least?

This one votes when it votes Baltar.

This one votes when it votes Baltar.

Why are you being tentative?

This is the second time you've talked about voting me and haven't done it.

i feel like there's a nonzero chance asri and baltar are scum together

[furtiveglance]

Nah^

[Alisae]

2 Things

Ari fwiw I want to tr you but I can't find any good reason to and I also can't really find any good reason to wolfread you either so maybe that's just my incompetence. I also don't really know what you're capable of.
I do think that Cakez is literally wrong. A most notable instance of what appeared to be hunting would from your fire vote in RVS. It's not like impossible for that to be faked but that's at least 1 instance of something that has looked like hunting.
If he's a wolf I genuinely have no idea what the guy is doing? Honestly to me it looks like someone who is struggling :/

there's probably a mafia in the neighborhood

Based off of what?

[Aristeia]

I think SirCakes is so far in his scum meta that he should be a slam dunk lim candidate today. I recognize I can be somewhat biased in this regard so I would appreciate if someone can reality check me and take a look at some of the meta-checks I've been reviewing to see if I'm simply confbiased on his slot.

These are the six games I skimmed - some of them I am already familiar with but I opened them up again to refresh my memory about what his scum game looks like:

Town Games:
Open 870
Open 866
Micro 1062
Mini 2260

Mafia Games:
Dance Party
Eurybia’s Curse


If you open up these isos, I suggest you have town on one side and mafia on the other side so you can see there are some marked differences between how he plays as town and how he plays as mafia.

When he is mafia he tends to use declarative statements far more and paint in broad sweeps - the reads come much faster because he's just making shit up. When he's town he goes read by read and you can actually see how he develops them one at a time from moments in time. Also excessive confidence is something that is present in his scum games but not in his town games - his town thought process involves nuance and he's not nearly as certain of things that he is saying.

[petapan]

i know ari is making a big deal about cakez but i can see cakez having a bad dumb read he refuses to let go of as town and i'm not sure he approaches scum with the mentality of hardtunneling a player for fun

hi im playing pokemon but i caught up

VOTE: Ari

wanna go here rn i think decent odds this is scum struggling to make serious content

this vote is actually scummy though

[Alisae]

What about the interactions w/ fire is that something he has faked before i don't mind his recent interactions with fire

[Aristeia]

If he's a wolf I genuinely have no idea what the guy is doing? Honestly to me it looks like someone who is struggling :/

I suggest you read the games I linked.

I don't expect a player that is "struggling" in d1 of a large to project that much confidence into the thread.

I would be fine with his play if he was simply taking it slow and getting his bearings but the exaggerated confidence has all the hallmarks of his scum game where he tries to pretend he's 50 feet tall.

[petapan]

cakes is mafia or a moron

What about Mistyx.
I think her vote just now was particularly egregious

i swear i posted that without reading that last firebringer post, i'm not trying to pocket him

[redFF]

2 Things

Ari fwiw I want to tr you but I can't find any good reason to and I also can't really find any good reason to wolfread you either so maybe that's just my incompetence. I also don't really know what you're capable of.
I do think that Cakez is literally wrong. A most notable instance of what appeared to be hunting would from your fire vote in RVS. It's not like impossible for that to be faked but that's at least 1 instance of something that has looked like hunting.
If he's a wolf I genuinely have no idea what the guy is doing? Honestly to me it looks like someone who is struggling :/

there's probably a mafia in the neighborhood

Based off of what?

just makes sense to have 1 mafia in a 3 person neighborhood from a setup perspective, am i wrong in thinking this?

[petapan]

i thought cakez was visibly riding the struggle bus in holiday dance party in a way that hasn't shown up in this game but i'll review i guess

[Aristeia]

2 Things

Ari fwiw I want to tr you but I can't find any good reason to and I also can't really find any good reason to wolfread you either so maybe that's just my incompetence. I also don't really know what you're capable of.
I do think that Cakez is literally wrong. A most notable instance of what appeared to be hunting would from your fire vote in RVS. It's not like impossible for that to be faked but that's at least 1 instance of something that has looked like hunting.
If he's a wolf I genuinely have no idea what the guy is doing? Honestly to me it looks like someone who is struggling :/

there's probably a mafia in the neighborhood

Based off of what?

just makes sense to have 1 mafia in a 3 person neighborhood from a setup perspective, am i wrong in thinking this?

Datisi is a mod who likes to subvert expectations.

[redFF]

saving my place at top of page 24

think lycan is town for reasons I’ll think are bad if i explain

can you fill us in here? lycan had made 4 posts when you said this