Open 101 - Two of Four - Game over before 712

[veerus]

vote: ThAdmiral

. I think he's scummy for not posting anything til now. :p

[veerus]

Holy slowness, batman.

Yeah.. wtf people?

[veerus]

Kaiveran, what do you think makes this setup so interesting?

ThAdmiral, why did you vote ripley?

[veerus]

...really? Your first reaction is no reason? If I wasn't voting for you already, I would've now.

[veerus]

Isn't the point of setups where not all of the possible roles are present, to discourage mass claims?

And how is a miller claim a good idea if we don't even know if there are cops in the setup?

[veerus]

This isn't a closed set-up though...

[veerus]

point is -- why did you suggest it when it doesn't apply?

[veerus]

If there's a miller, a D2 claim may not be a bad idea though I'm still not sure I would agree with the merits of it without having a cop in the set up.

...where is everyone? Half the people have barely made any posts in the game.

[veerus]

Activity post.

Let me analyze the possibilities.

Silver's plan: D2 arrives, 2 or 3 people claim miller. 2 people and no counterclaim means that we might have outed all scum right there, but I doubt that'll happen. More likely to be 1 claim and 1 counterclaim, resulting in the situation that Ripley just described. 3 claims isn't likely, but it's either two scum and a true miller, or a scum, a miller, and a townie being a jerk.

Ripley's plan relies on at least one non-townie claim, and therein lies the problem. If everyone wimps out and claims townie, we're no further than where we started. Granted, this can happen with Silver's plan as well, but it's a lot less likely, as people who will seer as Scum are going to try and cover themselves. Of course, if some townie gets up some bravado or a scum tries to frame someone, they might fake Cop and say that they seered X as scum, and naturally X (be they townie or scum) will try to avoid getting lynched by claiming miller.

I'm slightly edging towards Silver's strategy; It looks like the best we can do is try it out, narrow the suspects at least a little bit, and try to weed out the liars from there.

Man this game is going slow. I'm caught up modding a game on another site, so I might not be OMG ACTIVE. I'll follow the game best I can.

That's a lot of assumptions for one post...

[veerus]

With a 7-player game, I would've expected it to be over by now...

[veerus]

There's no real plan due to a severe lack of participation.

Since roles are randomly distributed, it is possible that a miller may exist without a cop. I have decided that ThAdmiral's suggestion of having a miller claim is a null-tell since as mafia, he'd already know who the townies are so the miller claim request would seem to bring too much attention too early on. Therefore,

unvote

.

[veerus]

I don't like Veerus line of reasoning (great to see you again) in post 55. I can actually see a reason why scum would like to know if there's a miller.

Why? Scum wouldn't care.. we're all townies and we all need to die.

Hopefully Zazier will bring some discussion to the thread because unless something comes up, I'm totally for lynching a lurker.. This game is going nowhere fast.

mod: who have you prodded recently?

(this will give us a list of our lurker targets)

[veerus]

The game has 7 players and only 4 are contributing... somewhat. Which means the other 3 aren't even trying. My definition of a lurker is someone who has barely made any posts and none recently. My request for the mod was two-fold: to get some prods out and to then vote the person who was the first to reply to the prod. My reasoning is that such a player is still on the board a lot but is trying to post as little as possible here to avoid any hint of suspicion that would increase the speed in such a slow-paced game. Therefore...

unvote; vote: Kaiveran

FOS: SilverPhoenix

for apparently being on the board (according to Zazier) and not posting.

The "powerrole" claim may have some sense.. I will think on it and post later.

[veerus]

So let me get this straight.. the plan is to have 2 players claim power-role and then we know for sure that they're town, right?

What if one or both scum claim power-roles too? We won't have enough days to figure out who's who and we'll be forced to lynch our own admitted power-roles. That doesn't sound like a viable solution.

[veerus]

A couple things to consider..

IF we are to claim, we need to claim D1. That's a given. The problem is that I'm not sure giving out power roles is a good thing.

According to the rules, there's a deadline.. I'm guessing after wasting all this time, we won't have time for everyone to claim at this pace. Our best bet is to lynch and soon.

I like Kaiveran for reasons I stated earlier.

mod: when is the deadline?

[veerus]

hey... new blood, welcome. Please fill us in on your massclaim proposition. So far I'm not very excited about it and it looks like I'm not the only one.

P.S. I'm still for the Kaiveran lynch.. after the quick prod, he's disappeared. Obviously he won't make the same mistake again.

[veerus]

I think it's safe to say that this is an awful plan, and I will vote for anyone who either claims or continues to push massclaim.

The problem with threats like this is that they tend to close down discussion. How can you discuss anything when only one view is allowed and anyone arguing the other side is under threat of being voted simply for expressing their view? Already we can see how axle135 has felt it necessary to state he isn't "pushing the issue" although it seems he has things to say about it.

And if you are an innocent and believe anyone "pushing" the mass claim must be suspect, surely you would learn more by waiting to see exactly what people do have to say about it, rather than frightening them off with threats of a vote?

Great point, Ripley. Combine this with CC's great post just now, I think the vote should be obvious.

unvote; vote: TCS

[veerus]

mod: vote count?

[veerus]

@ cc: yeah I was just sorta skimming and saw that you were both against the claim and I was a bit confused.

@ everyone: As I said before though we shouldn't really be talking about the possible outcomes of all the possibilities of the claim. I know they are helpful points to bring up in the argument of whether to claim or not but it should be clear by now that both parties are fairly set in their ways and are not going to change their minds. It is also probably too late but I can't help but feel we are giving information to the scum which they

could have

but

may not have

come up with on their own.

I think we should all just vote now whether we are for claiming or not, and then either do it or do not do it.

anybody else agree?

Something in this post I really don't like.. But I can't put a finger on it just yet.

And for the record, I'm against a mass claim. Currently the scum has 2/5 chance to hit a PR (2/4 if we lynch a townie) = 50% worst case scenario. If we claim, scum have 100% of hitting a PR. What more is there to consider?

[veerus]

ThAdmiral seems to have the IIOA syndrome (information instead of analysis). In fact, now that I've been able to quantify it, I feel ok with a vote on him.

unvote; vote: ThAdmiral

[veerus]

It's just what it is. For the entire game so far all you have done is speculate about the setup by proposing/denying different claim ideas and not doing any analysis as to who may be scum.

[veerus]

Also, veerus' scumminess has jumped with his L-1 vote on ThAd.

Considering day 1 has been going on for nearly a month, I feel ok with the L-1. He is currently the highest on the scum-like symptoms list. And the fact that the wagon built up kind of fast tells me that there's likely no scum bussing going on. In addition, the fact that pretty much every player posted since I put him at L-1 suggests to me that scum are hesitant to hammer their buddy in such a short game..

[veerus]

ThAdmiral posts a very good point, and the people against him don't seem to have a real reason. However, doesn't ThAdmiral's post follow very well Tarhilindur's standard tells?

Yes.

IIOA (primarily) -- thus my vote.

[veerus]

As if I was the only one discussing the set up.

No.. but you were the only one to come up with an elaborate OMGUS post/vote on me.

[veerus]

Alright, at this point, either ThAd is scum and his buddy is really reluctant to hammer, or he is town and both scum are already on ThAd's wagon.

Agreed. However, if his buddy is reluctant to hammer, that still leaves one reluctant townie.

Do you think all the ThAd wagoners are town, or do you think there could be scum on the wagon? What are your suspicions of the other wagoners?

I'm going back and forth on TCS.. I can't decide, but his "gut" vote isn't exactly well reasoned (as by definition). Zazier pushed for the mass claim and provided lengthy reasoning only to vote TA for something relatively minor. In other words, both could be scum. However...

What do you think of the speed with which the wagon built?

It is likely a coincidence. If scum are on the wagon, they didn't really try to bus preferring to vote on a whim since TCS/Zazier votes aren't exactly rock solid.

[veerus]

With 7 players, it's kind of hard to not get to L-1 quickly. Besides we're nearing a deadline. Putting someone at L-1 with mere days before deadline is not scummy.

I find it rather curious that you're jumping on my wagon when my vote has a significantly better reason than the other two on TA. In fact, TA even agreed with my reasoning.

fos: CarnCarn

for creating a counter-wagon. If TA flips scum, you'll be a prime candidate for his scum buddy.

[veerus]

fos: CarnCarn

for creating a counter-wagon.

What do you mean,

creating

a counter-wagon? You had 2 votes already. Almost anything CarnCarn could have done was less scummy than voting for you. He could have lain low until after deadline and blamed Christmas commitments. He could have voted one of the players currently on 0 votes - almost bound to be totally useless the day before deadline. He could have posted without voting at all. The only other choices he had that I can see are to vote for you or to lynch ThAdmiral.

Hm, I forgot I had 2 votes on myself.. pretty sure one of the votes is still left over from the semi-random stage, so lynching me with random votes would be more ridiculous and scummy than anything happening with TA's votes. I shall

UNFOS

since I didn't realize I had two votes on me already.

Timing of my vote is poor, but it's not scummy. I voiced my opinion that TA was giving off scummy vibes but I didn't want to vote on a "gut" feeling or a super weak reason like the others did. However once I was able to quantify what I had a problem with in TA's posts, I placed my vote.

@TA: obviously you wouldn't agree that your behavior is scummy. However your behavior fits one of the proven and often-observed tells of mafia and in these games, best you can get is tells. They're more often right than wrong and they don't require twisting others words and picking out little things and blowing them out of proportion like you have done.

[veerus]

I'm waving it aside because TA picked random statements by me as a response to my vote on him and claimed they're scummy when they're not. NG 646 had an actual case on me to defend against.

Regardless, I didn't want to do this, but to ensure that a mislynch doesn't happen, I'll claim even though it'll almost guarantee a NK. I'm a roleblocker. If I survive the day, I plan to block either CC or TCS. If you believe me and not lynch me, feel free to post your top suspects for me to RB since if TA is scum, a successful RB would mean a win for town.

[veerus]

After a long day 1, this will be the fastest day 2.

I blocked CarnCarn. Therefore:

vote: CarnCarn

[veerus]

CarnCarn is right. If he's not scum, then you almost definitely are. Because if we lynch CC today, I block TCS tomorrow for the win. However, I'm pretty sure CC is scum.

I really can't believe scum would attempt a no-kill last night. There was 50% chance of me blocking scum, therefore there was 50% chance of scum killing me. Those odds are too good not to attempt a kill.

However, TCS's posts, make me think that he (as scum) might have indeed not killed. In which case, it seems he's setting up a D3 lynch knowing that CC isn't scum.

[veerus]

Axle, with me being one of the PR's, there can't be a cop AND a miller.

Ripley: those two are the only ones that raised alarm bells for me day 1. Also, as I explained before, it would not benefit scum to forgo his kill last night. If scum is one of those two people, there's a 50% chance of killing me. If scum is not one of those two, there's 100% chance of killing me. No killing in such a small game is more beneficial to the town, especially with a roleblocker on the loose. Odds of me hitting the last scum are relatively high, which would eventually win the game for town.

Also, confirming my suspicions about CC, in his very first post today, he exhibited another one of Tar's standard tells.

[veerus]

So wait, Zazier.. let me get this straight.. You now BELIEVE that I'm the roleblocker AND you think that TCS is a possible scum and yet you DON'T believe my roleblock and contingency plan? That's absolutely ridiculous. If CC is town, then I block TCS tomorrow and we win. This isn't rocket science.

Also, I'm VERY MUCH against a massclaim at this point. A miller wouldn't gain us anything. A cop will only out himself when he's found the other scum (on the off-chance that it isn't TCS/CC) and there's no reason to do so sooner. And a doctor is protecting me every night (or he should). Why out the roles that will win the game for us?

[veerus]

I'm worried that if, on the off-chance I'm wrong, the other power role will go a long way toward helping the town win in lylo.

Why is there such a movement for a massclaim anyway? All it does is outs the other PR.. What are you trying to accomplish and what information do you think would be helpful at this point?

...but if everyone agrees on a massclaim, I suggest we do it popcorn style (first person to claim names the next, etc).. i.e. I should go first since I already claimed.

[veerus]

If you're REALLY a roleblocker, then a cop claim is the best thing that could ever happen to us. You continue to block CarnCarn while we no-lynch and the cop investigates the rest of us. If the cop dies immediately, you're scum or carncarn is cleared. If the cop lives, we get useful investigations.

Uhh... what?

[veerus]

Okay, well, if we don't want to massclaim, then let's all get on theCarnCarn wagon and veerus will block me tonight. Without the further information that a massclaim would provide, the fact that CC got blocked and there was no kill makes him the logical choice.

QFE.

[veerus]

I don't get it.. what's "non-townie"? Are you saying you're the other power role?

[veerus]

It's game over.

The ONLY reason why the mod would open the thread early is if he had received ALL the night actions. Therefore, CC had submitted his action.

"gg" as the kids say.

[veerus]

For the record, I actually didn't turn in a night action last night. I wasn't lying about that

You should've. As I explained, you had a 50% chance of hitting me and then you would've had the chance to massage the game in your favor. Your weak-reasoned jump on me after TA's weak-reasoned vote gave you away for me.

[veerus]

Did I do alright with modding?

Yeah.. perhaps a little more presence during D1 with vote counts and prods and whatnot would've sped the game up a bit.

[veerus]

For the record, I actually didn't turn in a night action last night. I wasn't lying about that

You should've. As I explained, you had a 50% chance of hitting me and then you would've had the chance to massage the game in your favor. Your weak-reasoned jump on me after TA's weak-reasoned vote gave you away for me.

Yeah, I actually meant to turn in an action NKing you, but the thread reopening early told me it wouldn't have mattered anyway.

That probably shouldn't have happened. To me an early thread open means that ALL actions are in.. regardless of being blocked.

[veerus]

mod: what would've happened if we deadlined with 3 votes on me and TA?

To answer my own question I'm assuming TA would've gotten lynched since he reached 3 votes first, unless you would've enforced a no-lynch... Either way, CC shoulda probably stuck to his guns and not hammered.

In such a small game, 2 scum on one wagon = deadly. I'm still not sure why Ripley kept his *random* vote on me the entire day 1 especially after TA started making mountains out of mole hills.

I pushed for the claim by group-agreed order because I was sure veerus would insist CC and TCS went first, and I would have tried to make sure ZazieR, the only other possible scum, went ahead of me.

Good call.. I would've picked one of those two. While I didn't consider your scenario, I don't think it would've mattered. A mass claim with 1 scum left would've either identified both PR's, or gave us an automatic win with scum claiming PR giving us a sure D3 win.

[veerus]

It wasn't not obvious, I just never felt you really had a solid case on me to justify the vote, especially after I was at L-1 with a super weak case from TA/CC on me.. /shrug