Mini 2292: Anything uPick - Game Over!

[Wavelength]

Now that we know that we are never in a 3:2:1 world, and only 4:2 or 4:1:1, here is a run down of what happens if we go ignore the possible SK.

If we ARE at 4:1:1 right now, and we kill town!LLD, here are some possible worlds:

1 death, 1 disappearance (both town)

---1:1:1 -- it is now

impossible

for us to win. We would just be king makers between the two anti-town factions.

1 Disappearance, but no flips

We have no idea what is happening

. Did they double up? Did the SK eat the scum? Who knows? Not us.
It could be 1:1:2 (which is again, unwinnable, we are just king makers) or
it could be 1:3, but the 1 has upto 2 scum inside which also feels hard.
And we don't even know what world we are in.

The only good outcome for the town is if the scum team kill the SK.

But what if they don't? If they shoot else where, the town basically always loses. IF PB really does spit people back out if he dies, then why would they even bother? They can risk getting eaten, and then come back with his elim down the line anyways.

This is the world that I am worried about. If we get it wrong between Stephen and LLD, and PB is 3rd party, we are fucked.

If we are in 4:2, then killing PB first is NOT BAD, because we get to see his flip to help find the scum. Either way. Either we confirm him group scum, and we are expressly looking for a PB partner.

OR

We confirm him not group scum, and we get to reset and come back to MELO with more information.

Frankly, (especially after the last page or so!), I am prepared to bet the game on PB being Not Town, of one variety or the other.

You seem to think that the only world where PB is town, I am scum. If I am wrong, then I will take the miselim tomorrow and this loss will be on me.

You talked me out of pushing for the third party kill yesterday, but I want it today.

[Wavelength]

I had kind of accepted that if he was 3rd party, we were largely going to be at the whim of the anti-town night actions when 3:2:! was possible, but we can potentially lock that out now that we know we are never at 3:2:1

[Pink Ball]

I'm not 3p for fucks sake you're assuming this because supposedly I didn't act last night but why the fuck would I not act last night if that would be a 2v2v1 or 3v1v1 situation and screw you

[Wavelength]

If PB is 3rd party, which is my best guess at how this game makes sense, then this is the wrong game plan. We are setting ourselves up to lose.

If you are right, and I am wrong, THEN WE WIN WITH EITHER PATH.

But if I am right, and you are wrong, then your path could be throwing the game.

[Alisae]

How do we actually kill pb
We can’t right now

[Pink Ball]

Wave your logic is really really off and I can only see this kind of logic that omits key information coming only from scum!you

[Alisae]

We don’t have the votes

[Wavelength]

Like I’d love to kill PB
But that requires waiting for a SAS replacement, convincing that SAS replacement to do it.

I am not really convinced that not waiting until the stephen slot has been replaced is a bad thing, seeing as how who ever gets it might need to choose who to make hated tonight.

But even without waiting, You+Me+Flea+LLD = Dead PB.

LLD will likely agree because anyone else is better then her, even if that someone else is her partner.

[Wavelength]

Wave your logic is really really off and I can only see this kind of logic that omits key information coming only from scum!you

If you think that the scum team is LLD+Me, then this path is STILL a town victory.

You flip town -> We kill me and LLD in the last two days of the game.

[Wavelength]

The path that I am saying we take wins if I am right. It wins if Ali is right. It wins if Pink Ball is right.

[Wavelength]

And if we are all fucking wrong somehow, then we were losing anyways

[Alisae]

Well if we’re waiting then it doesn’t make that much of a difference?

[Pink Ball]

Like, we are all agreeing now that LLD is scum but Wave wants to derail the wagon to me because some wanky setup speculation suggesting that I'm a 3p, pushing it subtly at the begining of the day and now going full aggro on it since LLD is at E-1????

p-edit IF I THINK IT'S LLD AND YOU WE JUST KILL LLD AND WE STILL HAVE MY NIGHT ACTION

[Wavelength]

Well, I wanted the unvote, because I thought that if I was able to start to sway you, then PB might hammer. And I did not want him to have that option anymore once you started considering what I had to say.

[Alisae]

If pb was going to hammer he would have done it already, no?

[Alisae]

What world are we dealing with if LLD is town?
A SAS and PB wolfteam?

[Wavelength]

What scum team do we lose to by doing my path?

It is the safest path, and it is feeling really shitty that no one actually seems to care about my concern for the way this could lose. (Not PB, he has to argue against it if I am right, so :shrug I guess)

[Wavelength]

What world are we dealing with if LLD is town?
A SAS and PB wolfteam?

Yes.

I was leaning SAS>LLD before your case.

[Wavelength]

I think I might be leaning SAS > lld for group scum.

But I am not confident in that at all, and want to do some rereading before we commit to anything

So please don't speed the day @ali / flea / pb

Like I posted this, and you voted anyways

[Alisae]

What world are we dealing with if LLD is town?
A SAS and PB wolfteam?

Yes.

I was leaning SAS>LLD before your case.

reread the game and see if you still feel that way
I find that to be quite a hard pill to swallow and I’m pretty sure this game is over if that is the team, no?

[Pink Ball]

IF IT WAS SAS AND ME I WOULD'VE HAMMERED FOR FUCKS SAKE

[Wavelength]

SAS was single mindedly focused on PB in a way that I felt like could be him as scum trying to avoid having other scum reads, and his push was fairly ineffectual at first.

But looking back, his push actually had an uptick after PB claimed that the people in his hood could come back. Suddenly, he was interested in "saving" the people in PB's hood.

[Alisae]

Like SAS and PB being the wolfteam implies that only 1 wolf was on d1 wagon and 1 on counter

[Wavelength]

IF IT WAS SAS AND ME I WOULD'VE HAMMERED FOR FUCKS SAKE

I am saying you 3rd party, and SAS group scum.

So no.

[Wavelength]

What world are we dealing with if LLD is town?
A SAS and PB wolfteam?

Yes.

I was leaning SAS>LLD before your case.

I misread when I said Yes.

I was saying yes to SAS+Penguin Power, not PB