Newbie 2115 - Day 4

[usesPython]

Days randomly ending fast looks to be this games thing so I'll speed through the stuff I need to post and then yell at people after the important stuff is done.

Seeing as there's a decent chance that no one in 3p ELO is going to be good at mech:

Spoiler: Known night actions

N1:

Powerofdeath

tracks

AurorusVox

Friendly Neighbor

visits usesPython/patchwork/Bellaphant/KawaiiKame

AurorusVox

rolecops

Kowahbunga

AurorusVox

kills

Deltabreedy

N2:

Friendly Neighbor

visits patchwork/Bellaphant/KawaiiKame

AurorusVox

rolecops

???

AurorusVox/Mafia Goon

kills

Kowahbunga

N3:

Friendly Neighbor

visits patchwork/Bellaphant/KawaiiKame

Mafia Goon

kills

???

Given that

Kowahbunga

is confirmed

town

because they got rolecopped by

AurorusVox

and

AurorusVox

is confirmed

Rolecop

because he got tracked by

Powerofdeath

, we can assume the following:

Spoiler: 1. By 3p ELO, the Friendly Neighbor will have visited everyone assuming they survive that long and visited someone every night

Given that by N2 all

townies

knew

Kowahbunga

was

town

due to knowing that

Powerofdeath

was

Tracker

and

AurorusVox

rolecoped

Kowahbunga

, this leaves the following playerlist outside of

Kowahbunga

and

AurorusVox

:

patchwork
Bellaphant
KawaiiKame
usesPython

Since the

Friendly Neighbor

has N2 and N3 to visit people, as long as they visit every night they are guaranteed to have been mod-confirmed by 3p ELO. Furthermore, since

scum

can't take advantage of knowing who the

Friendly Neighbor

is if they find out by being visited N3, it is optimal for the

Friendly Neighbor

to visit N3 as well, in case an FN'd person dies and the other person they visited N1/N2 is

Mafia Goon

who fakeclaims

Friendly Neighbor

Spoiler: 2. Scum have a 66% chance of correctly guessing who the Friendly Neighbor is assuming they weren't visited N1/N2

Given that

scum

know

Kowahbunga

is

Vanilla Townie

due to rolecopping them, this leaves the following playerlist outside of

Kowahbunga

and

AurorusVox

:
patchwork
Bellaphant
KawaiiKame
usesPython

In the case where

scum

don't believe I can be

Friendly Neighbor

:
One person is

Mafia Goon

, another gets rolecopped.
If the person rolecopped is

Friendly Neighbor

, then

scum

obviously know who the

Friendly Neighbor

is
If the person rolecopped is

Vanilla Townie

, that means

scum

assume the last person in the list is

Friendly Neighbor

Writing out the probability space:

scum

have a (2/3 chance of rolecopping

VT

* 1/2 chance of guessing incorrectly on if I am

Friendly Neighbor

= 1/3) 33% chance of not hitting the

Friendly Neighbor

, in other words a (1 - 1/3 = 2/3) 66% chance of hitting the

Friendly Neighbor

In the case where

scum

believe I can be

Friendly Neighbor

:
One person is

Mafia Goon

, another gets rolecopped.
If the person rolecopped is

Friendly Neighbor

, then

scum

obviously know who the

Friendly Neighbor

is
If the person rolecopped is

Vanilla Townie

, that means

scum

have a 50% chance of randomly guessing the

Friendly Neighbor

Writing out the probability space:

scum

have a (2/3 chance of rolecopping

VT

* 1/2 chance of guessing the other

VT

= 1/3) 33% chance of not hitting the

Friendly Neighbor

, in other words a (1 - 1/3 = 2/3) 66% chance of hitting the

Friendly Neighbor

Now onto questions:

patch and Kawaii, can you two elaborate on your d2 reads? patch just had a naked vote with 0 explanation before AV even did the mech wall and all Kawaii had to say is that "JK > Tracker in value"

[usesPython]

Important stuff done, can we start actually counting votes before placing them and announcing E-1 votes so that accidental hammers don't happen

[AurorusVox]

I have no idea why pod would lie about his result. Maybe he just hated me.

So I jailed patch like promised. Confirms him as town. Unbelievable, right? Must therefore be 2 of {bella, KK, UP}.

[AurorusVox]

In fact must be FN + {Bella/patch} because they’re setting up the fake friendly neighbour gambit

Which actually thinking about it means we’re in the roleblocker set so patch could be not confirmed town since they could have roleblocked me and killed and also there’s 2 scum left so I’m dumb and patch isn’t confirmed after all ffs

[AurorusVox]

VOTE: python

Die scum die

Ps so who’s your friendly neighbour buddy?

Actually I can figure this out myself

Bella didn’t sound like she was preparing to fake a fn claim
Patch can’t claim it due to my jailing him n1
So must be KK

Scumteam found, thank me later (pod you helped but next time don’t fake results pls)

[AurorusVox]

Ps I know no one is going to believe me (I wouldn’t believe me either) but tbh once I saw pod flip tracker I knew town had lost anyway so I won’t lose sleep over the L due to town pr deciding to do some liar’s gambit. Boredom with forum mafia, maybe.

What I would ask is to look back over d1, and especially d2, and you’ll see that I’ve been working for the benefit of the town throughout. My reaction to pods lies were 100% genuine.

Essentially if no one claims FN we know python is lying and is scum. But I’d say whoever does claim it is gonna be pythons partner. They have nothing to lose at that point because clearly it’s 99% likely I’ll be limmed before them.

@patch I’m 99% certain you’re town now, because if you were scum fake claiming FN you wouldn’t have voted for pod. Would you consider doing python or KK? Bella is like 75% likely town because she doubted the FN existence = very unlikely to be the one to fake claim it.

Hear me out. If NO ONE other than UP confirms the existence of a FN, then we know that what I’m saying is legit; because if I’m lying then one of the remaining players would just come out and call bullshit on what I’m saying.

[AurorusVox]

Oh and if two people claim to have been visited but no one claims to be the FN then that also confirms those two as the scumteam because lol they’re both faking being visited (obvs)

[patchwork]

confirms them*
anyone who doesn't vote vox here is an idiot VOTE: vox

[AurorusVox]

Oh fuck pal I’m sorry *them

I was just so keen to get my truth out there before scum came to push a mislim on me :’(

If you’re not scum patch then you need to unvote cos otherwise scum could come in and double whammy me

[AurorusVox]

Patch don’t do this to me </3

[AurorusVox]

Tbf I don’t blame you. We can blame pod for the loss either way tbh~

[AurorusVox]

I wish we could have rode into the sunset together. Many years from now, we’d have looked back on this game and said how unbelievable it was that we navigated the lies of a town pr faking a result.

Scum must have been salivating when they saw the fake result from pod. Can you believe how happy they must have been when they saw it?? Unless you can see it in your heart to see my truth, we’re guaranteed the loss here. My bro, I leave it in your hands <3

[patchwork]

vox what the fuck

[AurorusVox]

Do what you know is right in your heart <3

[patchwork]

just going to UNVOTE: just in case but like./ im keeping my eyes on you

[patchwork]

if vox flips scum it's probably python, if python flips scum it's either kk or vox

[patchwork]

also btw vox its a little weird that you're a claimed jailkeeper and you just haven't died like huh ok

[AurorusVox]

UNVOTE:

You legit are my spirit animal <3

This was a guaranteed town loss if *literally anyone else* had been in your slot, even if we still lose I will cherish the fact that you had enough faith to hear me out~

But real talk I really can’t see it being anyone other than Python and KK at this stage, Bella is like soooo outside chance. Would you be more comfortable going for python or KK today?? I’ll repay the faith you showed in me and be guided by your thoughts here

Pedit: my guy, scum have a town pr who faked a result on me, why tf would they kill me off, they probably assumed it would be a victory for them within minutes of the day starting

[patchwork]

also like??? who the heck is friendly neighbor lol if someone were to just out here it'd be so much easier to hunt

patch and Kawaii, can you two elaborate on your d2 reads? patch just had a naked vote with 0 explanation before AV even did the mech wall and all Kawaii had to say is that "JK > Tracker in value"

i literally don't have reads anymore im just bruteforcing with logic at this point

me, bella, you, kk, and vox are alive
...oh fuck if i live to day 4 this is gonna be really hard
um

pedit: oh
yeah
fair

[AurorusVox]

There is no FN, that’s the beauty of it.

Python has like 1% chance of faking the FN claim as town, all other options point to him as scum. I’d say to lose due to two town faking results/roles is just like there’s almost no way back from that.

Bella doesn’t make sense with her play yesterday to be a part of a FN fake scumteam unless she comes out and claims to have been visited by a FN herself today, and that would require python to claim to be the FN to work I think? So if python doesn’t claim fn then we know it can’t be python-Bella

KK makes loads of sense as a partner, he’s stayed in the background and let either python or Bella take the lead for him. I’d wager KK is the scum roleblocker from this. He also snuck the e-1 vote onto pod without announcing it, and let kowah hammer without realising. He also tried to go for me first of all, but then changed with pretty weak justification. This would be scum trying to lim the more dangerous role (jail keeper) but realising they could also use me for their next mislim and switching in an opportunistic way.

———

I mean shit, all that will happen if it’s python-KK and we lim python today is that KK will nk bella and set me, you and KK up for the 3p. You even said that’s the 50:50 you’d be presented with.

KK knows I know you’re town now (why would you have unvoted me as scum), so they know they have to convince you that I’m scum, and the best way to do that is keep me alive. They know if they kill me tonight that you will lim them over Bella. And if they are the roleblocker like I think, then I can’t even prevent the kill cos they’ll just roleblock me.

That must be why python did the fn claim, so that the roleblocker could be protected.

I dunno my guy; I’ll be guided by you here. What do you think?

[KawaiiKame]

There is no FN, that’s the beauty of it.

I am FN

[AurorusVox]

VOTE: kawaii

[AurorusVox]

Python-KK scumteam confirmed, wheeee it was a wild ride but that’s a weight off my mind

[AurorusVox]

@patch, @bella - if KK was really FN why hasn’t he voted me already?

[AurorusVox]

Python won’t vote KK here in any form, so I need both of you to understand the play they’ve made here