Election! | GAME OVER

[GuiltyLion]

I don't think that's true

This is wine but why bus each other d1

I said this yesterDay but I really think scum is fucking up if they're bussing on D1 in this setup. There are a bunch of pro town roles that can get assigned to different players every day. That's extraordinarily swingy and scum are going to need all the numbers they can get to maintain thread control, towncred might buy you a day with a fun role but it's not going to be as easy to solocarry here than it would be in a normal game where there's only a single player with the cop/JOAT/whatever role that you need to pocket/kill

today's elimination should be someone that either didn't vote meowth or was super reluctant/hesitant to give juice to the wagon

[GuiltyLion]

can everyone post their ballots or confirm it if they did not submit them?

I voted for these people:

Treasurer - Bingle
Sherriff - SK
Mayor - STD
Council Member - LLD
Trash Collector - Pooky

[GuiltyLion]

I don't have enough time yet to dedicate to this game that I'd like - I may be around late tonight but if not I'll definitely have time to do some more substantial catch up & engage tomorrow

in the mean time I'd like to pursue this

VOTE: Lorne Malvo

I like Alisae's point about Gimli's awkward handling of xofelf 'slip' (for the record, after Bingle found that furtive post, I no longer see xof's post as a meaningful slip/tell), and I also think Gimli's last post about feeling frustrated of being left out of a town 'clique' are less likely to come from town? Like if he thought mafia were taking thread control, he'd be pointing that out more directly, and if he thought townies were in control but just excluding him, I don't think it would be as demoralizing. Reads more to me like scum who is correctly not being fully included into the townbloc and trying to AtE/spin it as something that's affecting their game

also the bullshit about withholding your scumreads is maybe not alignment indicative but certainly vote-worthy in and of itself. even assuming you are town and you have best intentions, all you are doing is making coalition-building more difficult, increasing the odds of a deadline panic wagon, and also allowing scum to have more direct control of the game via their ability to vote and participate in wagons

[GuiltyLion]

I'm not really against a furtive wagon, I might be willing to go for that pending some re-read and re-eval. I've had vibes that there's a wonky relationship between Gimli/furtive that feels like there's scum involved in it either via pocketing or buddies straight up defending each other, but I want to take a closer reread of their interactions specifically before drawing conclusions.

I centrally have problems with how furtive said on D1 that he didn't see UNOwen/meowth as aligned, but then on D2 said he was questioning me for thinking that they weren't aligned. It makes me think his D1 post was not real. It's also generally not a great look that he was sussing meowth so much but voting elsewhere for the majority of the day phase, but I need to do due diligence and go back and look into the context/timing of his pivot to voting meowth wagon - the VCs look bad but I want to reread some posts

[GuiltyLion]

I'm gonna be around for a bit! plan is to reread meowth ISO + gimli/furtive but also available for real time jamming

I mean mechanically we want town on all of the roles

I think talking about reads is helpful for this purpose

my thesis is we suck at finding town too much within 48 hours of game start for it to outweigh the info it gives scum

ok sorry whatever I'll just afk until the deadline

ok sorry whatever I'll just afk until the deadline

anyone is free to do whatever, im just explaining my behavior

this doesn't strike me as a S-S interaction. meowth's 369 is kinda conciliatory and defensive in a way I don't think he'd be if they were just distancing

[GuiltyLion]

i dont have a strong read on ausuka, but i do think there was some weird pushing against her that i didnt understand, which makes me lean town overall. i did find the enchant townread weird. there are a lot of differing opinions about ausuka though so ask me again after the first flip.

I also think this feels a lot more like a TMI townread or buddying ('weird pushing against her that i didn't understand) than distancing

[GuiltyLion]

Hey Lion what do you think of pooky and meowth interactions?

there's nothing that's hard clearing but generally I think it looks more like meowth trying to fake engagements with a town Pooky instead of planned theater. and the "just going to assume town!Pooky until evidence to the contrary"(1338) and letting him "lead until he gets shot" (1478) feels to me more likely scum trying to avoid offending Pooky rather than scum trying to boost a buddy - though I can't entirely rule out the possibility of the latter

[GuiltyLion]

I agree the AD interactions are bad, and at this point he's starting to feel worryingly lifeless

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: ActionDan

yeah let's try this. I'm a bit waffly on furtive and want to do some more rereading there, will continue on that at some point today. I had less time than I wanted to just now because I had to tweeze a splinter out of my foot and it was a bit of an Operation

[GuiltyLion]

i'm not going to be letting action dan die today. is the long and short of it.

like i'm open to being sold on him, actually, i should say. i'm not gonna be closed minded but

as long as i townread AD, i won't allow him to die.

LLD can you explain why you townread Dan to this degree?

I know the 'bad associations with meowth' case might not be convincing but I'm not really seeing a lot there to townread this strongly?

[GuiltyLion]

furtive I'd also like to understand why you currently townread Dan

[GuiltyLion]

I know the 'bad associations with meowth' case might not be convincing but I'm not really seeing a lot there to townread this strongly?

Was this the extent of the strength of your vote and presumable scumread?

eh, it's not a particularly strong read/vote but it's founded on stronger townreads elsewhere

I'm having trouble building a workable framework for the game right now. furtive and xof both feel like meh wagons to me, I don't feel either is especially likely to flip scum and mainly I lost a lot of faith in xof!scum once I realized the slip wasn't legit and I looked over Ausuka/meowth interactions

you didn't really do anything useful with your vote on D1, voteparking on SleepyKrew (a scumread that has since evaporated?). No one has really pushed you all that strongly or looked your way other than Lorne, who I feel is town. You seem a bit detached from the main threads of the game in the way scum like to operate and in a way that is more likely to occur if scum isn't looking to push you.

Also, your case in 2830 and 2847 feels kinda rote to me - like you found something you could believably push Lorne over and are gunning on that while glossing over the lack of depth to it. Like your argument is basically that Lorne is scum because he decided you were scum from meowth's ISO without looking at your ISO, but like... that doesn't feel hard to imagine coming from town who is lazy? why wouldn't scum try to also look through your ISO to bolster their push, and wouldn't they be more concerned with appearances?

[GuiltyLion]

I don’t know why he’d be reluctant if ausuka was town, but I can definitely understand scum backing off of a partner that got weirdly defensive over nothing.

I feel like it makes more sense to be reluctant if Ausuka's town? Meowth might not want to hurt her feelings, he might see this push isn't really going anywhere, he might think backing off makes him look less agenda-motivated. I don't see the reason to back off if he knows Ausuka is his scumbuddy - he knows her emotion is faked or exaggerated, and they'd probably be chatting in the PT about it before/during.

also, would Ausuka be more likely as scum to project being upset like that if she knew meowth was distancing?

[GuiltyLion]

this is currently feeling like a gamestate where I'll be happy to be wrong and xof being scum puts us even further in a good spot, but I just have the sense town is defaulting to an easy lim on someone who hasn't been super engaged or townie and scum are okay with that

[GuiltyLion]

I'm happy with this vote

so since you said SK/Pooky also contains a mafia if xof if scum, do you think SK is just frozen and not pushing any alternative right now, or Pooky is just casually tossing another buddy aside while not attempting to glean any towncred from it whatsoever?

[GuiltyLion]

I guess that's fair

idk

hope I'm just wrong here. I'll move to xof if we get closer to deadline and need the votes but I'd like them to have one more chance to come back and leave whatever they think might be useful and I'd also like to see if this wagon has the votes without me/Lorne

[GuiltyLion]

UNOwen, do you have any thoughts/theories as to xofelf's buddies would be

I trust you and this is an entirely good faith question

I think the biggest reason I have doubts at the moment is I just don't really see who are likely buddies for xof or what they're doing right now. furtive bussing? Alisae coasting after attempting a defense?

[GuiltyLion]

SK can still quite easily be scum. His trajectory today is a bit surprising if he is. He is a cop at the moment so I'm not inclined to look deeply at someone that we don't have a good reason to elim today (do you think otherwise?).

You've summed up my argument fine, though you are leaving out the very poignant air of certainly Lorne felt about his own conclusion. As for the idea that his stance isn't hard to imagine coming from lazy town -- yes it is in fact very hard to imagine. Whether you are lazy or not, you know as town that purely isoing scum will not certain results yield since you know you are limiting yourself to full information and that there are pitfalls when only relying on scums word. If you are town you should feel this in your bones. As for your next two questions: a) if lazy town is a thing then surely lazy scum is too but scum also can tailor the extent and pacing of their pushes, test waters, etc. No need to go for early grand slams; b) you think Lorne isn't concerned with appearances? Half their posts are contrived to inject some kind of humor into the game. They've been playing for vibes, with some success.

I think you're trying to add "depth" to his actions where there isn't. It really can just be simple.

on the SK question - no, I'm not saying we should lim him today, I'm just trying to feel like I have a good grasp on what the game looks like if xof!scum and to me it doesn't make a lot of sense. It means either scum are just getting routed and all but waving a white flag, or they feel comfortable with the standing of their other two members (against the council for tonight and the thread's overall consensus) to dump another member on D2 and make it a 10v2 going into the night. it just doesn't feel especially likely to me, and even in the latter world it means other scum feel good about their position right now

I'll grant you that Lorne does lean a bit on the humor/vibe shtick, but I don't feel certainty is a scumtell in the way you're suggesting here. I've been reading his bravado as somewhat tongue in cheek, and frankly the only way I see some of those comments as scum!confidence (like the 'reap that sweet sweet cred' remark) is if he knows xof is a miselimination anyways

as for your last sentence - if you're content to sit back and assume that the game is "simple" on D2 you're setting yourself up to be blindsided far more often than not. like I think it's much better to do our due diligence and question our assumptions than to not do that and coast

[GuiltyLion]

on the pooky discussion - I kinda dropped this for a bit but I still think it's wack that he was completely willing to hand his gun to LLD. like even if he's full confident that she's town, why did he have no issue with Cakez being on the list... I wouldn't have shot Cakez after that D1 and I dislike that he basically gets to skate by with no accountability for a townkill

Bingle brought up a good point that vig is obviously bad in scum hands so it was good to use D1 to get it out of the way, and I guess regardless of his alignment if he was willing to hand over the gun then he has to stick to that once he receives the directive from LLD, but still, that kill is always gonna be a yikes from me, and at least with LLD she set herself up to take the blame for it

[GuiltyLion]

I considered myself in effect voting xof btw

sorry dont mean to pile on all that pressure but I saw someone list me as a potential partner and was like "wait I dont get cred? oh fuck I didnt do anything yet"

this post is kinda bad, btw

if you want to vote xof then vote xof, there's no reason to stall it out here if that's your preferred elimination

your vote is currently on Lorne who is the only one really pushing for a counterwagon, so like, if you don't trust Lorne and you scumread xof, why would you not just vote xof.

I can see worlds where town does this and sheep has a lot of stuff that generally feels townie to me on the surface but every now and then I get serious heebie jeebies about the amount of coasting he's doing

and I still don't really think bloodbot was all that townie

[GuiltyLion]

Hey Lion can you ask people to vote Dan?

I tried asking LLD and furtive why they townread Dan, wasn't all that convinced by their answers but frankly I'm not confident enough in a Dan lim to corral votes

[GuiltyLion]

here's another general thought that I feel merits more explicit discussion:

a) do we think scum knew for sure that Enchant wasn't being protected
b) if yes, that means there was scum on the D1 council
c) who do we think was scum on the council

since I doubt Bingle or LLD are scum, I'd place it at very

very

good odds there's a scum in {furtive, Dan, sheep, pooky} - I know that isn't saying a whole lot since that's a broad pool, but it's funny that three of them are willing to go for a xof elimination today and Dan/sheep's other suspect is Lorne who was out of the council. I'd expect townies in this group to be more suspicious of eachother

[GuiltyLion]

Ok, guess xof is dying today then

you can't try to make me feel responsible for this when in the same breath you're saying you're too lazy to do the work yourself

ultimately if xof dies I'm ok with it, they're not exactly steering the game themselves or making themselves not limbait, and it will at least force the town on their wagon to re-evaluate if they flip town. and if they flip scum that's even better

[GuiltyLion]

"wait I dont get cred?"

This also just feels really fake to me, like not a thought that sheep would actually have.

like here is every mention of ausuka/xof in sheep's iso:

ausuka villagery then wolfy

ehh I townread the people who pushed GL cuz they thought really similar things to me at the same time that I thought them
that's like ausuka + there might've been someone else

update on my reading is that wagoning auskua/xof slot seems fine

ausuka defended meowth. is that the sort of stuff that would make someone a confident wolf to u? could u look at that?

then in 2957 sheep has "reached the end of D1" and now xof is in the bottom tier with no further explanation. And now sheep thinks they should get

credit

for a xof elimination? I'm having a hard time thinking that's genuine

idk the more I think about it the more I don't like it

[GuiltyLion]

pooky I'm not talking about whether we should have protected Enchant, I'm talking about whether you think scum knew for a fact that he wasn't protected

also, I still think this is kinda generally incongruent with D1 where you kept arguing with me that putting Enchant as cop was bad for scum because now they had to consider letting him live. I said they didn't seem all that concerned about it since he won near unanimous vote, and I was right, he was killed at no cost to scum, they even got another kill as well.

[GuiltyLion]

Does it do anything to make my xofelf/sheep theory less likely? I feel that it doesn't.

yeah I wasn't disagreeing with that, I think it's just a boost to sheep!scum odds regardless of xof's alignment because I think he's lying about expecting to get credit for a xof flip

[GuiltyLion]

pooky I'm not entirely all about this aggressive vibe you've got here man

yes I know you indicated suspicion of furtive and were voting/pushing him earlier today

do you think xof is higher odds of scum at this point?

[GuiltyLion]

sorry, didn't mean to tell you what to do, you can keep being you, I just don't grok the headspace of why you had such an incredulous/strong reaction to my post

[GuiltyLion]

like I'd get it if I was calling you scum and pushing you explicitly, but I was basically just pointing out that it's weird that xof is the agreed upon wagon when a bunch of D1 council people all support it. I just feel like xof is a LHF wagon and in the world where they're town I don't want this wagon to have just gone through mindlessly

if you're not scum you don't have to take offense to that

I guess I was also giving you shit for the vig shot though so maybe that was my b

[GuiltyLion]

ok, that's a really good reason for voting xof and I'm glad you put it out there cause it makes a lot more sense to me than your behavior previously

@lorne I was talking to pooky in that post

[GuiltyLion]

ok, I think I've made my peace with this

intent to hammer

I will let xof have one more chance at final words, but otherwise I'll drop a hammer 8-10 hours from now

[GuiltyLion]

Hmm sheep how much more time do you think you'd like? I don't want to cut you off if you're still reading up and if you want to do stuff after that.

[GuiltyLion]

I do feel better about you reading these latest posts

Thanks for bearing with me friends as I work through the paranoia

I am feeling better about a xof lim than I have past few days especially after Pooky pointing out the friendship/history between STD and xof

[GuiltyLion]

Bloodb0t was obvious town

how about you explain this read and why you feel that way

[GuiltyLion]

like, if anything, blood's ISO is significantly worse than sheep's and makes me think I shouldn't rush to townread sheep on 'vibes' every time I go back and re-ISO blood

his engagement with me was weird, he has no real interactions with meowth but voted him for council member, he started the game with a lot of consistent presence then gradually faded off into replace out once the game got dense

what am I missing here that makes him "obvious town"

[GuiltyLion]

oh, and he immediately declared for the least useful PR on page 1

[GuiltyLion]

I have more to talk about with GL. Will do so after work

I'm just waiting for this and then I'll vote xof

[GuiltyLion]

no, I'm not going to read another game I wasn't in. Feel free to use that game as a reference but I'd still like you to explain what it is about his play in this game that makes him "obvious town". If it's obvious it shouldn't be that hard to put in your own words

[GuiltyLion]

so bloodb0t as mafia is completely incapable of sounding like his town game? gosh you must think he's the worst mafia player on the site, hope he's not still reading along

also it should go without saying but a meta read based on a single previous game together is worthless, if you've never seen him as scum you can't make any assessment about what the differences are between his town/scum game

[GuiltyLion]

since I doubt Bingle or LLD are scum, I'd place it at very very good odds there's a scum in {furtive, Dan, sheep, pooky}

?

Why is my name here? I wasn't on council yesterday.

lol yep I made a mistake, forgot Enchant was 6th council member and my brain autofilled with a current council member

[GuiltyLion]

I am really confused about the point you're trying to make in the first paragraph in relation to my post, if there is any or if this is just a segue into an esoteric point that if Xof is scum SK probably isn't because he's about as proactive as dry yeast?

nah I think I lost the plot of that conversation at some point and accordingly didn't make my reply clear, what happened was:
GL: "xof scum doesn't make a lot of sense, who are their buddies? if xof is town maybe Dan is scum, Dan seems to not be keying on his prior scumread of SK at all, maybe that's indicative"
Dan: "Why should I be keying on SK, he's on the council we can't lim him"
GL: "I'm not saying you should be pushing to lim SK. [repeats first post in different words]"
what I didn't say that maybe I should have is that just because we can't/shouldn't lim SK today, doesn't mean I expect you to just not engage with him at all, or not call out where he continues to be scummy or whether your read evolves. but it's all not really a useful conversation anyways, at least not at this juncture.

Whether he's tongue in cheek, whether he's dead serious about his position (which he is), he's projecting the same certainty. Do not give people the luxury of having it both ways. The extenuating circumstance around Xof wouldn't detract from his confidence regardless of their flip. If town as you said, he wasn't focusing there. If scum, I haven't been focusing there and my equity as a candidate for elimination remains unchanged or even increases the next day so tell me why you think it would be out of scum's range to project confidence in that situation? Do not confuse my "simple" argument for rejection of all other matters related to the slot. I'm gone over both of Herta's and Gimli's isos and you can say both town things about them and scum things. I think both have been presented by various people so far and I can rehash them if you'd like. I think Lorne's behavior so far is pretty damning and its more than enough to get a good read. Now if there's something you think is redeeming about Lorne go ahead and tell me instead of enumerating these non-existant hypotheticals. please.

this is fair enough for my 11:30 pm brain. I mainly was catching a vibe that you were embellishing the scumminess of Lorne saying he didn't read your ISO, the main thing is that I don't really feel like I often see scum openly say they aren't reading their scumread's posts in the manner that he did, so I bristle a little bit at you acting like this is definitively scum-indicative behavior, cause I don't think it is. but that isn't gonna be enough to amount to "redemption" of Lorne's slot because I'd be hard pressed to find things that are definitively town-indicative behavior there either.

I could also probably talk about sheep/bloodbot the 1st council paranoia but I don't care to elaborate further than: Bloodbot was pretty town D1, and 1/3 vs 2/rest of eligible non-1st council members is close to a distinction without a difference

I still don't really feel Bloodbot was "pretty" town D1 and frankly re-isoing him again today weakened my previous desire to TR sheep. The main thing I remember thinking was particularly townie from him was that he accused me of "not having fun" this game, that felt like a genuine read/insight and I don't think I've seen scum make a similar push on me before. Also his reads were a bit messy/all over the place in a way that's less likely to be faked.

Regardless I think there was prob scum on the council

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: xofelf

[GuiltyLion]

I am lost

I want Bingle to explain funding decisions

I am probably badly snowed by a scum somewhere and want to reassess

[GuiltyLion]

I'm hoping LLD saved that "powerful" ability. I would have.

I won't say what ability I used, and neither should my successor as Council Member, frankly. There's 0 reason to let scum know what to play around.

there's absolutely reason to hold you accountable and share information with the town

[GuiltyLion]

bc frankly looks like despite all this hiding information, scum is "playing around" us just fine. 2 kills first night, kill last night, seemingly no useful town information, treasury underfunded... what have we done to box scum in mechanically other than arguably a kill on Enchant on N1?

[GuiltyLion]

like you can't be like "give me money, I have a powerful role!" on N2 and then come in here D3 and be like "I won't discuss what I did last night and neither should the next Council Member" like ??? how powerful was that role then, cause from my POV it looks like money just went into a black hole

AD do you think LLD's play makes sense knowing what you know about the CM abilities? I'd defer to your judgment if you can vouch that there's an ability she may have used that would make sense to slow roll like this for town benefit

[GuiltyLion]

unless she has an effective guilty which would only be wise to reveal after SK gives the cop result.

this makes sense to me, I get this

but if there's no effective guilty, then I'm otherwise having a hard time squaring how "my abilities are so powerful, you should fund me" can coexist with "none of the CM abilities are too useful and we don't need to discuss which one she used"

I'll drop it for now I was probably a bit hastily reactive but I 100% think someone else should be Council Member today, maybe it is finally UNOwen's time to shine

[GuiltyLion]

aite fair enough, sorry for jumping the gun

[GuiltyLion]

I guess first order of business is do we go with the Cop chain plan or elim SK. I'm going to read Gimli's iso once again and hope Icher produces something deterministic one way or the other

I don't think we should lim SK today

we won't be able to get much info out of the day phase if we plan on that, and if he's town it's just doing scum's work for them, a singular confirmed result is not worth it yet

[GuiltyLion]

I'm getting bad vibes from Ircher's posts

Why? Are you expecting me to provide some great revelation? Sheeping a dead townie's reads is the correct thing for me to do as a replacement since I lack most of the context for the current discussions.

this explanation for sheeping Pooky feels like it's more interested in being defensible than being town. like the use of the word "correct" stands out to me here, I think it's more likely to come from someone who is operating from a mindset of defending their positions logically rather than intuitively.

even if town!Ircher believes it's best to sheep dead Pooky I don't think it's natural to express that in this way, framing it as a matter of 'correct' mafia play.

and it's also just bad reasoning itself, nothing is stopping you from reading more and forming your own opinions or engaging proactively with Alisae to sort em yourself. Is there any chance you can link me to a game where you've replaced in as town and done something similar, sheeping a dead townie's scumread?

[GuiltyLion]

I still am a fan on SK's D1 and I don't feel like their play has been agenday at all. They feel super villagery. If ANYTHING one could probably argue that Dan is probably not the greatest cop shot, they seemed like they cared about things as well and I think they ended up being a bit townier than Lorne towards the end of the day. But I don't really care too much to nitpick the cop shot and I think they're likely just a townie?

I like this read on SK, I was thinking a similar thing myself when I was writing that post about copping him but didn't quite feel like I had Good Words for it but this is pretty close to how I feel. I wish SK were meeting a higher threshold of proactive play that makes it easier to find town, like he exists in a space where he could be scum, but I kinda feel like his detachment from the xof wagon comes from town who doesn't know what xof will flip and not scum who is going to be angling one way or another. so I'm getting good vibes from Alisae here

[GuiltyLion]

You, GL, and LLD snow this game easily.

I haven't rolled scum in literal years I don't know how good my scumgame is at the moment

also re: the council, I don't think it actually told me all that much it was mostly dead in the PT even after the xof flip we didn't have a whole lot to discuss. Bingle's summary of it is accurate.

I want to declare for a position but I don't think the ones I should go for will be funded/used tonight? I think cop should go to Dan, and I think I'm on board with LLD treasurer again because I think regardless of his alignment Bingle TRing her that strongly means she's likely town. thinking maybe I'll make another run for mayor this time, or I could do board again but that kinda feels like it doesn't matter a whole lot.

I'm less fond of the "scummy cop investigate SK" plan because if we flip mafia elsewhere it might spew SK town or otherwise invite a different cop pool and in that world I'd rather the cop be Dan with flexibility on who to target.

[GuiltyLion]

Spoiler: VCs 2.3, 2.4, 2.5

VoteCount 2.4

Xofelf [ 3 ]

STD, furtiveglance, unowen

Furtiveglance [ 3 ]

LLD, Pooky, Sleepykrew

Actiondan [ 3 ]

Lorne Malvo, Guiltylion, Alisae

Lorne Malvo [ 1 ]

Sheepsaysmeep

Not Voting [ 3 ]

Bingle, Xofelf, Actiondan

With 13 alive it takes 7 votes to be executed.

Countdown to deadline: (expired on 2023-03-10 17:08:00)

VoteCount 2.5

Xofelf [ 3 ]

STD, furtiveglance, unowen

Furtiveglance [ 3 ]

LLD, Pooky, Sleepykrew

Actiondan [ 3 ]

Lorne Malvo, Guiltylion, Alisae

Lorne Malvo [ 2 ]

Sheepsaysmeep, Actiondan

Not Voting [ 2 ]

Bingle, Xofelf

With 13 alive it takes 7 votes to be executed.

Countdown to deadline: (expired on 2023-03-10 17:08:00)

VoteCount 2.6

Xofelf [ 5 ]

STD, furtiveglance, unowen, Bingle, Pooky

Actiondan [ 3 ]

Lorne Malvo, Guiltylion, Alisae

Lorne Malvo [ 2 ]

Sheepsaysmeep, Actiondan

Furtiveglance [ 2 ]

LLD, Sleepykrew

Not Voting [ 1 ]

Xofelf

With 13 alive it takes 7 votes to be executed.

Countdown to deadline: (expired on 2023-03-10 17:08:00)

I think we're like one/two flips away from these VCs being truly useful but if we treat SK/Dan as town, there's some notable action here. the furtive counterwagon to both xof and dan (at 3 votes each) was LLD/Pooky/SK (presumably three town?) and it dismantled once Pooky followed Bingle onto xof. if furtive is town I'd generally expect at least one mafia to be setting themselves up there to ensure that the limpool is locked in at three townies and put themselves in good standing today with any of them flipping. I can imagine that may have been what Lorne was doing with Dan, but if both furtive and SK are town, nobody else was riding LLD's coattails to give them an easy target on D3?

my other thought here is that if furtive is town then it's likely there's a scum in STD/UNOwen/Bingle cause I feel like the slow inevitable momentum of the xof wagon must have had at least one scum comfortably on there throughout the whole day.

I wanna think a bit more about Pooky's thought that scum!furtive doesn't need to advocate against shooting town!xof, it makes sense to me but if the vig list was all town then maybe that's a play for towncred by WKing a slot

also, if Lorne is scum then sheep egging the xof wagon along while staying parked on Lorne remains a bad look

ircher/sheep/furtive feels like too easy and lazy of a solve but I don't think I'd be willing to bet the game on any of them town and they've all kinda been a bit blocked together with their reads on each other all game, even among the players in these slots prior to Ircher and Sheep. I think Ircher would be my choice for lim today though, I kinda vibe with SK on furtive, if he's scum he's chosen to play it by recklessly openscumming to the point of near trolling and that

could

be mafia but it is pretty audacious and I'm inclined to go for more conventionally scummy players in this pool first

[GuiltyLion]

Meowth [ 9 ] unowen, guiltylion, Save the dragons, LLD, Sleepykrew, Furtiveglance, Bingle, Gimli, enchant

also, generally this wagon really felt to me like it was town driven at the start and I suspect scum are more likely to have jumped on once it felt inevitable, rather than being on the front half. which again looks bad for the {furtive, Bingle, Gimli-now-Ircher} contingent

Bingle's voting record is not great and it vaguely feels a little odd to me that we've had such a tight budget with possibility of scum shenanigans affecting our taxation, yet he also has unshakable confidence in LLD? I want to think he's town and these things aren't indicative, but if someone told me there's 100% a deepwolf who's fucking up my read on the gamestate, I'd be inclined to look at Bingle first

[GuiltyLion]

also in general Dan feels like a useful clear to me and that makes me think SK town

parsing through these VCs and yesterday would be a lot harder if I had to account for universes where Dan is scum and paranoia that he's maliciously influencing the game towards a Lornecher misyeet

[GuiltyLion]

I'll also say that just looking at a VC for the meowth wagon seems a bit iffy to me in trying to figure out who should get towncred given that the whole thing was delayed by waiting on treasurer submission. IIRC, there were quite a few people vocally supporting the wagon early but off wagon for mechanical reasons and it's probably worth it to add those names in at the beginning of the wagon as well.

this is a fair point

re: LLD, I also appreciate the clarity there and that makes sense to me. somewhat unfortunately for you I believe you'd feel compelled to give this read as scum so I don't think it makes you any townier, but I am willing to sheep you on town!LLD and put her in treasurer again and generally support whatever judgment/decisions she makes for mechanics.

[GuiltyLion]

Bingle what do you think of limming Ircher today, or generally my thoughts outside of the meowth wagon point?

also I think I have figured out how to articulate the additional things I didn't like about 3268 but it's late and I've done my Mafia Effort for the day, if anyone's particularly interested I can flesh out those Ircher badvibes tomorrow. and it's not wildly changing my reads or anything but I like that UNOwen had an immediate negative reaction, don't feel inclined at all to doubt the existing TR there

[GuiltyLion]

Declare: Board

will be around a bit later

[GuiltyLion]

sorry y'all I've been somewhat busy and low on mafia energy

I will 100% have time after work today and will get my teeth back into the game

I plan to vote ActionDan for cop and vote Ircher, and I'm glad to see I haven't missed too much

[GuiltyLion]

I have submitted my ballot

[GuiltyLion]

Is there any chance you can link me to a game where you've replaced in as town and done something similar, sheeping a dead townie's scumread?

Ircher, did you miss this? Are you able to do this? if not just say so and I won't hound you, but it WILL count against you

[GuiltyLion]

right so the Ircher stuff I mentioned the other day

Is this based on the last few pages of the thread? Because if so, that's not the impression I got with regards to Pooky's reads.

@Ircher - were you aware that there was a council PT open overnight when you asked this?

That's not really accountability. There's too many things that could prevent that from being effective such as your successor getting killed, your successor being scum, etc.

this gives me a vague shit-stirry vibe. Like he's piggy-backing on on my initial gut dislike of LLD declining to discuss what she did with the role, but in this detached way where he's arguing but I don't get a feeling that he actually cares, and it feels more like it's meant to be correct or get a reaction out of LLD more than it is to express something he thinks will help him sort

??? Didn't SleepyKrew just claim an innocent result on you? Why would we elim them?

similar thing here like - does Ircher believe the result or not? the question has an incredulous tone but if he thinks AD is town I don't get the sense he actually cares about the answer to this question? It feels like reacting to react rather than something that reflects an honest effort to understand other players

[GuiltyLion]

STD's paranoia is completely fake

It was obviously just an excuse to self-towncase with the "btw why would I do this as scum"

I see right through this fraudulence

Nothing gets past me

Maybe it's actually furtive+Alisae+Dragons.

also, Ircher, can you explain why you think 3383 is a S-S post? it's not clear to me how your thought process evolved based on this. Of your previous solve, why did you decide sheep was town instead of Alisae or Dragons?

[GuiltyLion]

I still disagree with most everything furtive says but I kinda got a genuine feel from him the last couple pages

[GuiltyLion]

a bit uneasy adding on to like a seemingly very great consensus but I too am made pretty interested in killing ircherSlot

sheep, I'm curious if you think there are scum currently pushing Ircher, and if so, who they would be

[GuiltyLion]

Ircher why are you ignoring me? ;A;

[GuiltyLion]

3383 seemed like a scum-scum post because it is made to judge rather than understand.

but doesn't that only speak to scum!furtive? How does furtive making a post to "judge" STD implicate STD?

[GuiltyLion]

My WIM is very low this game. I do not feel compelled to put in a lot of effort if it is ultimately going to be in vain.

even if you are eliminated, you can leave behind thoughtful and well-explained reads for us to consider (once we know your alignment for sure and assuming you are town). that is never in vain

this mentality needs to go away in mafia games, there's no point to it other than to excuse you from playing and that's hard to see as anything but scummy

[GuiltyLion]

I'm not scum

maybe I'm not relating to how frustrating it is to be eliminated or maybe I'm overvaluing people's dying reads but personally I find it really frustrating someone basically says they don't want to play because they're getting voted. it registers to me like taking their ball and going home, and it's instinguishable from scum trying a last ditch AtE to save themselves. I don't know how else to offer someone an olive branch into the game other than pushing them to try and care

if I were scum there's no need for me to do any of this, I just vote Ircher and ride it out. I'm trying to get him to towntell

[GuiltyLion]

I definitely worded it obnoxiously with hindsight, I could have thought more about that "mentality needs to go away" remark, that definitely reads condescending

[GuiltyLion]

Voting SleepyKrew out is a win/win/win

If he is mafia, we get mafia out

If he is town, we know AD is town

In either case, AD can check someone else tonight.

What prevents scum from killing Dan in the town Skrew case? Then we're just down two townies.

I'm sorta maybe inclined to think this is a townslip?

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: furtiveglance

[GuiltyLion]

Is GL an ircher buddy?

Like in what world does ircher have a solid townread on me AND somehow miss the whole point of putting AD in the cop slot in the first place, given that he was reading recent pages specifically?

why does scum miss that

like to conclude he's scum making that post you have to assume he's either:

1) genuinely checked out, not remembering things and not even talking about the game with his teammates
2) faking being detached at that level

which do you think is happening here?

imo most people who are playing scum wouldn't even think to make a post like 3546 if they're aware of the mechanics and actively strategizing about how to play around them

[GuiltyLion]

how is eliminating SK today better than eliminating him tomorrow? that's what I don't understand

I don't really see how it's mechanically better to eliminate him today unless he's actually scum, but maybe I'm missing something

[GuiltyLion]

why is he scum

I've seen you assert it a lot but I don't remember a convincing explanation/case

[GuiltyLion]

Wait yeah all of GL’s recent stuff about furtive indicated a town lean or at least a desire to vote elsewhere today

No it didn't? If you go back and read my big post near day start, if you treat SK/AD as town there's a lot of gamestate/VCA stuff that points to furtive scum, especially if Ircher slot is town.

[GuiltyLion]

Spoiler: VCs 2.3, 2.4, 2.5

VoteCount 2.4

Xofelf [ 3 ]

STD, furtiveglance, unowen

Furtiveglance [ 3 ]

LLD, Pooky, Sleepykrew

Actiondan [ 3 ]

Lorne Malvo, Guiltylion, Alisae

Lorne Malvo [ 1 ]

Sheepsaysmeep

Not Voting [ 3 ]

Bingle, Xofelf, Actiondan

With 13 alive it takes 7 votes to be executed.

Countdown to deadline: (expired on 2023-03-10 17:08:00)

VoteCount 2.5

Xofelf [ 3 ]

STD, furtiveglance, unowen

Furtiveglance [ 3 ]

LLD, Pooky, Sleepykrew

Actiondan [ 3 ]

Lorne Malvo, Guiltylion, Alisae

Lorne Malvo [ 2 ]

Sheepsaysmeep, Actiondan

Not Voting [ 2 ]

Bingle, Xofelf

With 13 alive it takes 7 votes to be executed.

Countdown to deadline: (expired on 2023-03-10 17:08:00)

VoteCount 2.6

Xofelf [ 5 ]

STD, furtiveglance, unowen, Bingle, Pooky

Actiondan [ 3 ]

Lorne Malvo, Guiltylion, Alisae

Lorne Malvo [ 2 ]

Sheepsaysmeep, Actiondan

Furtiveglance [ 2 ]

LLD, Sleepykrew

Not Voting [ 1 ]

Xofelf

With 13 alive it takes 7 votes to be executed.

Countdown to deadline: (expired on 2023-03-10 17:08:00)

I think we're like one/two flips away from these VCs being truly useful but if we treat SK/Dan as town, there's some notable action here. the furtive counterwagon to both xof and dan (at 3 votes each) was LLD/Pooky/SK (presumably three town?) and it dismantled once Pooky followed Bingle onto xof. if furtive is town I'd generally expect at least one mafia to be setting themselves up there to ensure that the limpool is locked in at three townies and put themselves in good standing today with any of them flipping. I can imagine that may have been what Lorne was doing with Dan, but if both furtive and SK are town, nobody else was riding LLD's coattails to give them an easy target on D3?

my other thought here is that if furtive is town then it's likely there's a scum in STD/UNOwen/Bingle cause I feel like the slow inevitable momentum of the xof wagon must have had at least one scum comfortably on there throughout the whole day.

I wanna think a bit more about Pooky's thought that scum!furtive doesn't need to advocate against shooting town!xof, it makes sense to me but if the vig list was all town then maybe that's a play for towncred by WKing a slot

also, if Lorne is scum then sheep egging the xof wagon along while staying parked on Lorne remains a bad look

ircher/sheep/furtive feels like too easy and lazy of a solve but I don't think I'd be willing to bet the game on any of them town and they've all kinda been a bit blocked together with their reads on each other all game, even among the players in these slots prior to Ircher and Sheep. I think Ircher would be my choice for lim today though, I kinda vibe with SK on furtive, if he's scum he's chosen to play it by recklessly openscumming to the point of near trolling and that

could

be mafia but it is pretty audacious and I'm inclined to go for more conventionally scummy players in this pool first

Read my posts please before you talk about what's in them, thanks!

[GuiltyLion]

Conversely, to be town he has to have a genuine townread on me that he built from reading primarily the portion of the game where I discuss why AD *should* be cop, be genuinely checked out and not remember that specific part of the game. You know, the one part he's shown knowledge of. Whether he's scum who made up a read on me or scum who is pretending not to know what's going on, both of those are less ridiculous than that he's town who posted:

In post 3227, Bingle wrote:

In post 3223, Ircher wrote:

Hi!

I'll try reading up on the last few pages in a few hours.

teal dear:

Game is a smalltown with persistent and publicly assigned PRs. Treasurer determines who gets to act via a funding algorithm that is fully known to LLD and myself, but has only been alluded to publicly. We've been using the cop as a leash on the scum NK, which got us an Enchant kill N1 and theoretically should have gotten us a Skrew kill last night, but Skrew remains alive and well. Your predecessor was actively being useless, so you are a relatively high priority sort for me at least.

What do you mean by "as a leash"? Is the assumption that whoever gets copped will also get night killed?

and

What prevents scum from killing Dan in the town Skrew case? Then we're just down two townies.

Bingle I'm not really following you here. This seems consistent with town who has barely read the game and is giving you a lazy townread because you seem solvey. I dont see any contradiction in the two posts you quoted, if anything they're the same mindset of someone unaware that there's a doc. Am I missing something?

[GuiltyLion]

lol nothing cheeses me more than when someone makes a statement about *my* posts that isn't true

[GuiltyLion]

I did say I had a "genuine vibe" from furtive yeah but that's not enough for me to decide not to vote somewhere, scum can have genuine vibes

Also, what I'd personally like from you is your thought on whether ircher townslipped or not

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: furtiveglance

but...
why?

-furtive's reads seem so backwards/undeveloped to me that they feel more likely to be faked (see: defense of xofelf against slip turning into a vote on xofelf, calling bl00dbot "obvious town" based on one prior game together)

-if furtive is town and LLD is town (which seems to be universally accepted?) then it means literally no scum were pushing him yesterday or today, I find that unlikely

-if Ircher is town, who is scum? like IMO the POE is either narrow enough that furtive is high odds of scum or things are Not Right with the gamestate (SK scum world would be maybe the main other compelling explanation, but I don't want to yeet SK before flipping once more elsewhere)

[GuiltyLion]

It felt false then, his latest post not so much but it also didn't feel particularly genuine either.

so do you think scum!Ircher knows there's a doc ability and was pretending not to?

[GuiltyLion]

how come it couldn't just be a scum who doesn't know there's a doc because they didn't read everything

because scum talk to each other and generally try to win the game

[GuiltyLion]

sure, but that seems like a pretty reasonable and fair assumption to make. I'd much rather assume scum are discussing the mechanics of the game amongst themselves than not, and it's extremely rare that assumption has failed me or lead to an incorrect read.

I think it's far more likely he could be attempting to dumb-tell (UNOwen's take), but that didn't feel like a calculated attempt to me.

[GuiltyLion]

got p-edited but in response to your last post, I don't think the team is apathetic. it doesn't feel to me like town is winning right now

[GuiltyLion]

hell the team could be something like Bingle+Alisae+SK in which case we are REALLY not doing well

[GuiltyLion]

hmmmmmm you raise a compelling counter-argument

I'd like Ircher to maybe explain what happened that lead him to miss/forget the doctor thing but I am tempted to vote him

[GuiltyLion]

I don't see the point in doing this, so I'm not.

uhhhh

you don't see the point in explaining why you seemingly forgot that a Doctor ability exists despite previously responding to posts that outted the existence of a doctor ability on the same page?

[GuiltyLion]

it's not about right/wrong answers, it's about explaining what happened...

VOTE: Ircher

shouldn't have doubted

[GuiltyLion]

in the number of posts and words you've spent explaining why you won't explain, you could have just explained

[GuiltyLion]

GL made this weird argument that only town wouldn't pay attention to the game and called it a townslip, then immediately 180'd after I pointed out scum not paying attention and scum pretending to not pay attention were also potential explanations and that Ircher having a townread on me literally for that part of the game implies "not paying attention" isn't the real answer and making shit up is and Ircher refused to just parrot "I wasn't paying attention" back to him in what might be the most awkward defense-into-bus transition I've ever read.

This is a scummy post

It feels like you wrote this with the explicit goal of trying to make me look as bad as possible

Andante I'd suggest you cop me or Bingle tonight if Ircher flips scum

[GuiltyLion]

Also I would add additional context that the entirety of D2 was people pushing xof, me deciding I was getting bad vibes from xof flip and seeking possible alternatives elsewhere, Pooky eventually convincing me that he was townie and had a compelling reason to vote xof, me sleeping that, then xof flipping town and pooky dying. The same people pushing xof (STD, Bingle, UNOwen) are now all in agreement on Ircher, and I am still having the same bad gamestate vibes as I did before, just with two more townies dead since then

[GuiltyLion]

The fundamental problem with this game is that there's a group of players in {Sheep, Sleepy, Ircher} who if town are making it almost impossible to find them as town via lurky disengaged play and barely participating in wagons or discussions.

Then there's a few players in {Alisae, UNOwen, Dragons} who feel generally townie and are probably town but seem content to just vote their lurkscummy slot of choice (also including xof yesterday) and don't seem worried at all about what if they're wrong or what happens next.

So there's this inertia where not a lot is happening and I feel a bit lost at sea trying to do something more than just take the lowest friction lim on slots that I don't townread. Furtive and LLD are the only players that are giving me a sense of their own agency in this game and that is probably a good reason to read them town itself.

[GuiltyLion]

It feels like you wrote this with the explicit goal of trying to make me look as bad as possible

Yes, I think you're scum.

When and why did you come to this read

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: SleepyKrew

[GuiltyLion]

So you think it's more likely that I am scum grasping at straws trying to save a dying buddy (who is putting virtually no effort at all into playing) vs town feeling like the game is in a bad state and trying to push different players or different reads to get a sense of what's going on and defend against the worst case scenario of Ircher town? Why?

Kinda feels like to genuinely think I am scum here you must have zero respect for my scumgame?

[GuiltyLion]

Skrew tacitly supported the plan to give cop to people we wouldn't mind being nightkilled to prevent town from taking it in the shorts if the cop got shot

it's d3, is there another inno around?

We elected Enchant cop and he died on N1. This means scum likely knew he wasn't protected which probably means there was a scum on the D1 council, which is another thing I have brought up offhandedly a few times that never really gains any traction when I throw it out there.

[GuiltyLion]

D1 council

LLD - Treasurer
enchant - Sherriff
Pooky - Mayor
ActionDan - Council Member
Furtiveglance - Trash Collector
bloodbot - Board of Elections

You are Dan, Pooky is flipped town. I think LLD is town. So that would leave furtive and blood, who is now sheep.

My nightmare for the game right now is Ircher town and scum is something like Bingle + SK + [whoever]. Bingle trying to tie me to Ircher feels so disengenuine it's killed my read there and I now want to lim SK precisely because it feels like Bingle doesn't want us to

[GuiltyLion]

personally I'm ultimately fine if we flip Ircher if we commit to flipping SK tomorrow, I do think in a vacuum Ircher is still playing badly and we can't afford to bet on him being town

But I trust the SK wagon more than the Ircher wagon and after Bingles tomfoolery I'm not compromising on ignoring my bad vibes again.

[GuiltyLion]

Also I would add additional context that the entirety of D2 was people pushing xof, me deciding I was getting bad vibes from xof flip and seeking possible alternatives elsewhere, Pooky eventually convincing me that he was townie and had a compelling reason to vote xof, me sleeping that, then xof flipping town and pooky dying. The same people pushing xof (STD, Bingle, UNOwen) are now all in agreement on Ircher, and I am still having the same bad gamestate vibes as I did before, just with two more townies dead since then

This is interesting. Do you remember the beginning of the xof wagon, where YOU specifically called xof out on a slip and I was the only person who did enough digging into it to prove that the slip was explicitly not the case? Like, the entire reason the xof wagon actually went through in the end was because their reactions to that callout were bad.

And as far as your "There's scum on the D1 council" theory goes, that's a large ass portion of the scumcase on one of the three viable eliminations so far today. Saying it hasn't gained traction is pretty :/

Yes and it felt incredibly skeevy that as soon as the slip idea was forfeit, nobody besides me reassessed on xofelf and we went ahead and limmed them anyways?? Like if you're scum and you know xof is town, obviously you'd know the slip is bunk and it'd be free townpoints to point it out. That awards you nothing, and on D2 you were arguing I was town exactly because I must not have realized that it wasn't a real slip.

Nobody is pushing furtive on account of him being scum on the d1 council? If someone made that case today I missed it. I just remember voting furtive and receiving immediate pushback from Alisae, Dragons, Sleepy, UNOwen

[GuiltyLion]

it's just wild to me that Bingle had all these good reasons for finding me town on D2 and then on D3 he's willing to conveniently ignore/disregard those purely because he thinks scum!me would do the most ill-conceived terribly executed half defense/half bus on a completely deadweight slot at rhe 11th hour. He should know me well enough to know how I play town and that this is consistent with my general paranoid approach to townplay, I just can't grok it as a real read of his

[GuiltyLion]

I might make an actual GL case Monday or Tuesday

You can flip me after that idc

History shows we'll be waiting until at least Friday for this

[GuiltyLion]

UNOwen and meowth interactions don't look S/S at all to me, I can do it more detail later on a computer if you'd like but D1 scum meowth elim does not happen if it weren't for UNOwen and I don't think it was a planned bus

[GuiltyLion]

This is pretty much why GL leaning into the "The gamestate feels weird" seems so ridiculous to me. The gamestate is weird because if this were a normal game we'd be in day 4 by now.

My issues have nothing to do with the pace of the game and everything to do with the consensus and complacency and lack of concern from anybody. I was calling out that it felt weird yesterday, and the consensus wagon flipped town, and Pooky died - which is also weird since he wasn't universally TR. Something is off with this game, it does not feel to me like town is directing things in a way that is working against mafias desires

[GuiltyLion]

That was a bunch of people not posting because they'd all already more or less come to a conclusion on what to do

Yes, and it's WEIRD AS HELL that this conclusion was so easily reached with apparently nothing more to discuss. And meanwhile the treasurer, who everybody townreads and the person you claim we are waiting on, DOES NOT AGREE with the elimination and has her own scumread which nobody is engaging with!

[GuiltyLion]

Remember when you tried to analyze the D1 wagon and conveniently forgot that the wagon composition was fucked as hell because we'd all just stopped while waiting for LLD to figure out budgeting?

This is also an exaggeration, we steadily built the meowth wagon in the face of several alternatives and the core block of like the first 4-5 voters were not waiting around for anything. You could argue maybe 1-2 slots that jumped on at the end or didn't jump on would have changed position relative to eachother in a normal game, but the wagon itself isn't just something we have to totally discard

[GuiltyLion]

I think GL is town for the slip push. It's not so much as it coming across as genuine, which I think lion is certainly capable of faking, but rather that it came across as if he was confident in the push itself leading to an elim. If GL was faking not being aware of furtive's outing the vig, I think that he would have been more aware that his push could fall apart at any time and less likely to go as hard as he did on it. I also think GLscum would be fairly on top of figuring out what information he could about the PT and what information was shared with the thread. It's not a locktown reason, but if you add that to GL being probably the most proactive player in the game at the moment, I'm definitely :eyebrows: at furtive claiming to be strongly suspecting him and would like to hear about that case in particular.

[GuiltyLion]

GL: [continues trying to be proactive on D3 and explore angles where Ircher is town and getting dunked by scum for the easiest miselim of all time]
Bingle: doing anything more than prodging in the face of consensus makes you scummy now, actually

like your argument for me being an ircher buddy could have applied to me being a xof buddy yesterday, I did the exact same process of push/vote scumread -> get freaked out that scumread and rest of town doesn't seem to care or be worried at all -> reverse tack and townread suspect and push elsewhere

[GuiltyLion]

yet yesterday it made me town and today it makes me an Ircher buddy

[GuiltyLion]

furtive is positioning to push me as scum on an Ircher townflip and/or a SK scumflip

Bingle is positioning to push me as scum on an Ircher scumflip

pardon me for thinking something is wack with the game here and needs more digging since I'm town being shaded in all universes

[GuiltyLion]

Ok Bingle, so who do you think of those 5 meowth voters would have been voting elsewhere if not for #mechanics. Or are you saying everything after pookys vote needs to be ignored. Where do you think the decision to flip meowth was made, and by which players

[GuiltyLion]

Now you're the one misrepping

I didn't think Ircher was town for "detachment" I thought he was town for seemingly not being aware that a doctor exists. If I could somehow peer into his brain and determine specifically if he did not know there was a doctor when he made whatever post that was, I would call him lock town, because scum would know from a PT and from talking about the game that a doc exists

[GuiltyLion]

Ok Bingle, so who do you think of those 5 meowth voters would have been voting elsewhere if not for #mechanics.

Literally the opposite of what I'm saying. I'm saying, that if pooky hadn't said "Don't vote meowth we still need funding" meowth would have been dead like a day after the second VC, tops.

Ok but what is your overall point, because I'm not getting this. My original point was that I thought those first 5 voters were town and that probably there was likely a scum jumping on at the tail end of the wagon. To which you said we can't VCA that part of the wagon because the jump on phase was muddied by waiting for funding. Which is fair, I can loosely buy that. I still think scum probably wanna jump on there based on my general theory of scum mentality, but there's a confounding factor, whatever.

However, I still hold that UNOwen and the other core voters (Dragons and LLD) are town for being decisive swing votes onto the wagon at a time when other alternatives were possible. The way you tried recently to discredit ANY wagon analysis on meowth rubs me the wrong way and I don't have a sense of what your point is by saying the wagon would have gone faster.

[GuiltyLion]

Except that town not reading the game (detachment) and scum not reading the game (detachment) would equally not know that a doc exists. Like, your argument here is that Ircher was not reading the game but that if Ircher was scum he would be reading the scum PT (part of the game) AND that his partners would be telling him that there's a (two) docs AND that he wouldn't fake not knowing that when the sketchiest part of his entrance was what looks like obvious faking of not knowing shit despite actively engaging the shit he claimed to not know.

I just wanna say - yeah, this is my argument. Townies are far more likely to not read the game for mechanics and setup information than scum are. scum are the only ones who are going to have a PT where they are coordinating with their teammates. Like I said to Dragons, making an assumption that the mafia members are

trying to win the game

rarely fails me. Town players have a lot more leeway to not pay attention and be detached and yet still be playing to an 'acceptable' standard.

[GuiltyLion]

Basically, GL's "The gamestate is wonky read" would be entirely reasonable in a normal game, but in specifically this game we KNOW why the gamestate is wonky and it isn't the normally reasonable explanation.

I still think what I am pointing to when I say it's "wonky" is different than what you are asserting that it is, and not entirely caused by the set-up, but I don't know if there's anything more to be gained from continuing to bicker about it unless you want me to explain further.

[GuiltyLion]

@sheep, have you played with Andante before?

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: Ircher

I think if Bingle is town then this is scum

And if Bingle is scum then this is still scum

Dunno what to make of SK I think he has decent odds of scum but miseliminating him would probably fuck up the game worse than an Ircher flip. It's possible both SK/Ircher are both scum

[GuiltyLion]

The disconnect is that you're asserting that Town Ircher falling asleep at the wheel is far more likely than all of: {scum Ircher was falling asleep at the wheel, scum Ircher's team didn't feed him information about what nightkill they would be making during the night phase and why, scum Ircher actually did know about the doctor, but thought townIrcher wouldn't and so pretended he didn't}.

My biggest issue with Ircher himself, as stated multiple times, is that he's been doing things that are in line with explanation 3. So the townslip argument is roughly equivalent to "Ircher can't be faking not knowing about something because he didn't know about that thing." Which is circular nonsense.

mm ok this helps me see your POV

I do think it's far more likely that town!Ircher falls asleep at the wheel than scum!Ircher falls asleep at the wheel or scum!Ircher's team didn't feed him any information on replace in about what's going on.

however i agree that explanation 3 is possible, especially after UNOwen's 3590, that helped me understand what he (and you) are saying. I don't think it's a hard townslip.

that being said, I think you're misrepping me with the last bit there - I never meant to argue that Ircher

can't

be faking, rather my position has always been "IF he's not faking, then he's town". and I think in a vacuum it's more likely he wasn't faking than he was. but at the same time I see that there's enough reason to think it's possible that he

was

faking.

[GuiltyLion]

@sheep, have you played with Andante before?

Don’t think so

basically I don't think the stuff you're calling out in 3791 is scum-indicative for her

[GuiltyLion]

furtive are your SK/GL scumreads contingent on Ircher's alignment at all? If he flips scum does that change anything for you

[GuiltyLion]

I might make an actual GL case Monday or Tuesday

You can flip me after that idc

guess this isn't happening then?

[GuiltyLion]

I guess we wait for LLD to name who she funded

I'm doing a full reset and reread this day phase

[GuiltyLion]

alright so Alisae maf then

[GuiltyLion]

you didn't doc the cop and this reaction feels performative and over the top

sorry if this is like the 5% universe where scum had a RB or strongman or something but objectively the most likely explanation is you are mafia

[GuiltyLion]

lol

do you genuinely think it's a "brain off" take to believe that someone who claims they will doc the cop and then fails to do so probably lied? like that's the occams razor explanation, any other explanation requires to assume that you are town AND that scum had knowledge of the plan last night AND roles/ability to interfere with it.

If you're town and they have a RB then they still wouldn't even know which of you or UNOwen to block unless UNOwen is mafia

Also the second post "what the FUCK" feels pretty clearly performative to me lol

[GuiltyLion]

Ya GuiltyLion saying that I am performative is just a take that tries to make me look worse and adds fuel to the fire.
No good comes from it if he's a villager.

I just think it's a wolf tactic.

I really don't have to do anything to make you look bad here. You didn't protect the cop

[GuiltyLion]

Are you saying that the council was informed the doc would come from Ali instead of from Uno?

No, we kept it ambiguous who was getting funded

[GuiltyLion]

So UNOwen didn't have a doc ability? I thought it was heavily implied that he did

[GuiltyLion]

Ok, but we didn't know whether you used the doc or not? I didn't think it was obvious

[GuiltyLion]

Like all of the posts in the council thread are saying we have two JOAT protects and not to announce which one you are funding

[GuiltyLion]

All these assumptions have to go against the explanation where you're mafia and took the $100 and ran

And the performative point is that if you were town you'd immediately know this to be true, instead of grandstanding "what the FUCK" for all our benefit as if we need to see how surprised and confused you are

[GuiltyLion]

And yes GL, they clearly have abilities to interfere with my plan. It says so in the opening post

It actually doesn't say this!

[GuiltyLion]

GuiltyLion is so very scummy at the moment.

Let's be explicit here - you think Alisae is town and you are believing what e is saying?

[GuiltyLion]

"Effect the game" does not mean "stop a funded doctor from using their protect", unless the English language has changed dramatically from my understanding of it

[GuiltyLion]

That's not an answer to my question furtive. Do you think Alisae is scum or no

[GuiltyLion]

"Effect the game" does not mean "stop a funded doctor from using their protect", unless the English language has changed dramatically from my understanding of it

How would "stop a funded doctor from using their protect" not "Effect the game"
I think that would have a pretty big effect on the game!

because "effect the game" could mean literally anything. We don't know what abilities they have. It absolutely does not mean you can simply assert that there MUST EXIST a way for scum to have negated a doc protect based on that post, that opening post is not proof at all of what you are saying. For all we know "effect the game" could mean nothing more than "lower town's nightly tax income".

your argument is akin to someone with a guilty result on them saying "THERE'S A BUS DRIVER IT'S CONFIRMED IN THE OPENING POST"

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: GL

[GuiltyLion]

GuiltyLion is so very scummy at the moment.

Let's be explicit here - you think Alisae is town and you are believing what e is saying?

Your alignment isn't contingent on Alisae's.

That's not an answer to my question furtive. Do you think Alisae is scum or no

shouldn't take you this long to answer this btw @furtive

[GuiltyLion]

1) why am I a vote today than SleepyKrew who you were voting yesterday? is that reflective of a change in your reads?

2) how is that question trying to confuse you? in your own words, my alignment isn't contingent on Alisae's, so surely you should have some thoughts on whether you think Alisae is telling the truth or not about doccing Andante last night that have nothing to do with anything I'm saying? why does it feel like you're dodging what is the most immediate and urgent question of the game, which is whether we believe Alisae or not?

[GuiltyLion]

if it's fair to ask of other people I'd kinda like it if nobody else weighs in on what their opinion is re:Alisae until furtive gives an answer. This is giving very "wait and see which way public opinion goes" energy to me

[GuiltyLion]

like, it doesn't even matter whether you have an opinion on anything Alisae has said/done all game, their prior reads/votes, etc. Either Alisae is telling the truth about doccing and it failed and Alisae is town, or Alisae is lying about doccing and e's mafia. The mechanics have created a very straightforward question that resolves Alisae's alignment and even if you're unsure about the rest of the field and the game, it should be pretty immediate to have a sense of whether you believe Alisae or not as it relates to the claimed night actions.

[GuiltyLion]

SleepyKrew is more of a passive scum, you're more troublesome to have around

was that not true yesterday?

I think you're trying to tie me to Alisae in order to miscondemn one or both of us

ok, so if you think I'm trying to tie you to Alisae, then you must think Alisae is scum then. You think Alisae is lying about doccing Andante. Why then would you rather vote me before you vote someone who has clearly claimed they were going to do something which did not happen? We have hard, tangible evidence for Alisae mafia, yet you're more willing to take a dice roll on my alignment for hardpushing a player you also think is mafia? make it make sense. and also make it make sense why I had to drag this worldview out of you

[GuiltyLion]

No, I think Alisae is more likely town but I'm not convinced. Don't put words in my mouth

bruh

either e submitted an action to doc Andante or e didn't. It's kinda hard to take a "more likely" stance about alignment here.

also, if Alisae is "more likely" town, then how am I trying to tie you to em??? I'm trying to kill Alisae today, not you

[GuiltyLion]

I'm not pushing Alisae at all based on anything having to do with you, I'm pushing Alisae because e said e would doc the cop and then the cop died. then they opened today being all 'omg nooo how did this happen' in a way that registers to me as fake.

I haven't done anything to make you throw yourself into Alisae's grave with them, other than start pointing out that you're doing it. but the beauty of the Alisae case is that it does not matter at all what you've said or done or whether you're buddied. Andante's death speaks for itself.

[GuiltyLion]

yes because it's pretty wolfy to me that you're willing to immediately jump into today with "GL so scummy!" hot takes when the only thing I've said or done is to push Alisae,

then when I asked you whether that means you believe Alisae (which would be the logical assumption, since I'm apparently so "very scummy" for pushing Alisae), you get cagey and defensive and dodge simple questions

and again, none of my Alisae push has anything to do with you. I can push Alisae for letting the cop die and also interrogate you for being weasel-y on what you think of Alisae at the same time. but the latter does not have anything to do with the former, the Trial of Alisae can be held without single mention of user "furtive glance". This commentary is more meant to build up evidence for the Trial of Furtive tomorrow if/when Alisae flips mafia

[GuiltyLion]

doc: I'm going to doc the cop!
cop: [dies]
doc: omg HOW on EARTH did this HAPPEN?!?!
GL: I don't believe you are town-aligned, "doc"!
doc: THIS IS A SHITPUSH! [howls] awooooooo!!

[GuiltyLion]

furtive: I think it is more likely that the doc is telling the truth, but I have no convictions about this other than GL is obviously mafia.

[GuiltyLion]

We can likely triple fund by hitting the oh shit button

why did you call it the "oh shit button"?

[GuiltyLion]

either with the goal of miseliminating em today or me tomorrow if e is scum.

gosh it sure would be nice to know which of these you think is actually happening!

if it's the former, I've already shown why that's not true.
if it's the latter, that's not consistent with what you said in 3951

[GuiltyLion]

I'm not pushing Alisae at all based on anything having to do with you, I'm pushing Alisae because e said e would doc the cop and then the cop died. then they opened today being all 'omg nooo how did this happen' in a way that registers to me as fake.

Do you think this is a slam dunk?

mostly yeah, especially with Alisae's immediate OMGUS reaction to me

I think a player of Alisae's caliber should understand that most town people are going to think e is scum here,

especially

if e is town. Like if I were town in that situation, I'd actually be more skeptical of anyone giving me too much benefit of the doubt

[GuiltyLion]

Just more moving the goalposts and posturing

lmao "moving the goalposts"

[GuiltyLion]

We can likely triple fund by hitting the oh shit button

why did you call it the "oh shit button"?

I want to signal boost this question just so it doesn't get lost in the noise

[GuiltyLion]

It makes sense here for you as a wolf to go hard on me here. It makes sense here to try to discredit me by saying that I'm performative.
It's what a wolf would actively do here because a wolf does not want to give me room to breathe, they do not want me to fight back.
It wears me down and tries to sell the picture that I'm just some crazy maniac screaming their heads off to other players.

if I'm a wolf I love it if you fight back, exactly what you said, you either come off as ridiculous or it gives me something to do that's convenient and ignores dealing with sorting any other slots

what do you think I would/should do if I am town who thinks you are a wolf trying to wriggle away? what would my play look like?

[GuiltyLion]

All it implies to me is that scum had more info than they should've, which would suggest one of me/Alisae/LLD is scum.

I'm not convinced that Datisi would have backed meowth so hard on day 1 if they were scum together.

if you are thinking LLD is scummier than Alisae you're gonna have to sell me on that one

[GuiltyLion]

Xofelf

[ 7 ] STD, furtiveglance, unowen, Pooky,

Alisae

, Guiltylion, Bingle

Ircher

[ 4 ]

Alisae

, Guiltylion, Furtiveglance, Sleepykrew, UNOwen, Bingle

@UNowen, this alone is a pretty compelling reason to prefer scum!Alisae explanation over scum!LLD explanation as well IMO

[GuiltyLion]

also scum!LLD still requires more assumptions

since we know she definitely funded Alisae

she would also have to have a mechanical ability to stop Alisae

we have little evidence this mechanical ability definitively exists and was in play. again, simpler explanation is Alisae didn't do what e said e would.

[GuiltyLion]

Bingle isn't answering and LLD is here so I'm gonna cut to the chase

LLD, does the Treasurer role specifically refer to the "oh shit" button as an "oh shit" button?

[GuiltyLion]

ok, so


Bingle used the phrase "oh shit button" in 3923

however, I do not believe this phrase has been used in the main thread, or the n2 council thread. The only time I saw it used was LLD calling it an "oh shit button" in the N3 council thread.

therefore, I believe Bingle has access to or someone telling him about the N3 council thread, and is likely scum.

[GuiltyLion]

I literally just clarified with LLD that the role PM does not use the phrase "oh shit" button

[GuiltyLion]

ah damn, ok, so the inspiration was backwards, you got it from Bingle. I must have missed it in Bingle's ISO when I cmd+F'd "shit"

darn I was hoping that was a good one

[GuiltyLion]

this is giving me some xofelf flashbacks

one of these days I'll hit on a slip

[GuiltyLion]

I literally just clarified with LLD that the role PM does not use the phrase "oh shit" button

You will need to explain this argument to me more.

It's invalid, LLD caught that Bingle had actually used the phrase once already

[GuiltyLion]

Xofelf

[ 7 ] STD, furtiveglance, unowen, Pooky,

Alisae

, Guiltylion, Bingle

Ircher

[ 4 ]

Alisae

, Guiltylion, Furtiveglance, Sleepykrew, UNOwen, Bingle

@UNowen, this alone is a pretty compelling reason to prefer scum!Alisae explanation over scum!LLD explanation as well IMO

Also why am I supposed to be convinced that Alisae is scum based on vote counts which show them voting the same as me?

-___-

voting town isn't inherently scummy

but it is scummier than not voting town

LLD is right, she has not been influencing the gamestate in terms of eliminations, and we have eliminated town twice now. If you are comparing Alisae and LLD, Alisae is scummier for having participated in those wagons

much like I was saying in D3 council before the cop died, again, please consider that town has not had a good town thing happen since meowth was limmed on D1. that means the people who are choosing the players that flipped are more suspicious than those who are not. this effect should only be more potent if you are also on those wagons and you are town. in a 11+ player game with 3 scum alive, I guarantee you that you will make more money than you lose by betting that wagons have scum on them.

[GuiltyLion]

for the record I know I definitely suggested LLD asked to be funded immediately after D2 when I was frustrated that she was hiding info, but I was exaggerating it, when I went back and reread her posts (and did it again just now) she says she has very powerful abilities but didn't make any effort to tell Bingle to fund her or what to do. I played up the degree to which she 'hinted' for it and I was wrong to do so

[GuiltyLion]

I had no reason to move my vote but ok GL you're a wolf so...

let's go back to Things That Matter

in this post, Alisae is telling me that I am a wolf. Why does e need to do that? If I'm a wolf I already know I'm a wolf. This is a statement that is meant to impress upon everybody else that I am a wolf, it is manipulative rhetoric and an unnatural way for town to be talking to somebody they earnestly scumread.

[GuiltyLion]

furtive jumping in outta nowhere to immediately discredit my posts and defend Alisae! I am shocked! :O

[GuiltyLion]

I'm still not convinced that it's as simple as something like Alisae/furtive/??? scum. That would mean that Day 1 at least 3 scum were pushing me with bad arguments at the same time. Which strikes me as weird?

I intend to reread D1 and D2 and form a more well-rounded view of the game but I just really hate everything Alisae is doing today on principle, it feels so obviously scummy to me. A doc who's protection failed should be like... accepting that they're obviously going to be scumread and likely going to die, trying their best to parse out who is town and scum, not

fighting for their life

and immediately OMGUSing the first person who dares to suspect a doc who failed to protect a cop

it's also really skeevy the way e tried to source the opening post as proof that e was interfered with. Dishonest argumentation, and I think it would look different if Alisae was working with truth and honesty from their end. Alisae's goal throughout today so far has been to attack and discredit me and play defense vs to find scum.

[GuiltyLion]

I had no reason to move my vote but ok GL you're a wolf so...

let's go back to Things That Matter

in this post, Alisae is telling me that I am a wolf. Why does e need to do that? If I'm a wolf I already know I'm a wolf. This is a statement that is meant to impress upon everybody else that I am a wolf, it is manipulative rhetoric and an unnatural way for town to be talking to somebody they earnestly scumread.

lmao is this a bit

am I not clear or something? how often do you engage with your scumreads and say "I would [argue with you] or [explain myself], but you're a wolf!"

like that's obviously just meant to manipulate the audience than to express eis point of view, is it not

there's some nuance in like, town being snarky/dismissive towards scumreads and scum doing it, but the "you're a wolf" is really ham-fisted. fmpov it reeks of disingenuine

[GuiltyLion]

If I'm being shitpushed I'm going to call it out

except you haven't once taken the time to actually explain what is shit about suspecting a doc who failed to save a cop

you just assert that it must be. as if only wolf could ever think you aren't town.

[GuiltyLion]

I scumread and pushed meowth

you never voted him, your vote was on UNOwen as counterwagon especially when UNOwen was larger

we already covered this on D2

[GuiltyLion]

Because it’s currently laughable levels of confbias. There’s nothing wrong with the way Ali said that. Push em for real stuff, not this stuff.

I'm highlighting a very specific and accessible example of where Alisae is posting in a way that is meant to "win" an argument and affect everyone else's opinion of me. I get that might be harder to see if you don't know my alignment but I'm pretty sure I'm right and will continue to hold that you are the one with blinders on if you don't sense any scum in that post

[GuiltyLion]

I'm highlighting a very specific and accessible example of where Alisae is posting in a way that is meant to "win" an argument and affect everyone else's opinion of me. I get that might be harder to see if you don't know my alignment but I'm pretty sure I'm right and will continue to hold that you are the one with blinders on if you don't sense any scum in that post

I'm pretty confident that if I looked back in my past games I'd eventually find an example of a townie who posted something along the lines of "you won't care about my argument because you're scum". Which doesn't mean Alisae isn't scum posting it this time, but I think SleepyKrew is right that it isn't a good case.

It's not the case in and of itself, it's an evocative example. If you read the entire back and forth with Alisae and consider my larger point that Alisaes goal has never been to steer me straight or sort me, but rather to attempt to browbeat me into submission and make everyone else think I'm wolf or posting nonsense, it's a perfect example. E literally is saying "you're a wolf" for the purpose of everyone else hearing "you're a wolf", it does not have any function beyond that.

[GuiltyLion]

And before someone tries to hit me with "you're also trying to make everyone think Alisae is a wolf", the key difference is that my goal here isn't to survive or deflect from Alisae, it's to point out that e is being manipulative and playing to survive. Like ultimately what it all boils down to is I think Alisae is a wolf because I don't believe e attempted to doc Andante and it failed, and Alisae thinks I am a wolf because I believe Alisae is a wolf.

[GuiltyLion]

Lol

[GuiltyLion]

I'm just letting your posts speak for yourself tbh

Sure doesn't feel that way given your incessant need to keep baiting me

[GuiltyLion]

Do you actually want me to explain to you why I played yesterday the way I did? Is there a question in your post?

[GuiltyLion]

You're still doing it lol. If you want to convince people that my D3 was scummy, you're literally talking to the one person who has no chance of buying that argument. Take this up with UNOwen or Sleepy themselves, or hell I'm sure furtive would love to discuss it. instead youre again using it as an attempt to cudgel my talking to SK and UNowen

[GuiltyLion]

Alisae cop sounds like a recipe for disaster when e fakes a guilty

[GuiltyLion]

Do people think sheep is scummy enough to be cop

[GuiltyLion]

No I want to shoot you today via my vote

[GuiltyLion]

furtive exists in a quantum state where Alisae is both scum and not scum, when you attempt to observe him he behaves as if Alisae is not scum, but at the same time he will sometimes imply Alisae is scum or not fully commit to Alisae townread

[GuiltyLion]

GL, help a guy out and link the last game you were town in with a late game guilty result.

do you mean like a game where I was a cop and got a guilty? I can check but I don't know if there's gonna be a ton of hits there for ya boss. I have a couple in mind but I don't think either was late game

[GuiltyLion]

in Shakespeare I was a tracker and got a guilty on D2

in this newbie game I was a tracker and totally owned scum!UNOwen

having trouble remembering/finding games where I was investigative role but willing to keep digging if it'll help in some way

[GuiltyLion]

furtive exists in a quantum state where Alisae is both scum and not scum, when you attempt to observe him he behaves as if Alisae is not scum, but at the same time he will sometimes imply Alisae is scum or not fully commit to Alisae townread

Right now I think e is town because of my scumread on you, but it's possible you're bussing. You town and em scum doesn't really exist to me, neither does T/T.

why does me T / Alisae S not exist to you?? if you set aside all the bullshit we have

- me, a player who is good odds of town in a vacuum
- Alisae, a player who is good odds of town in a vacuum, but had night actions last night where fuckery

must have occurred

like, in the most OBJECTIVE sense, T!GL and S!Alisae should be the second most likely world after T!GL and T!Alisae.

[GuiltyLion]

ok but carte blanche ruling out an entirely likely scenario for ?? reasons is ????

like whatever possible reasons you have to scumread me should always be weaker than the fact that Alisae claimed to use the doc role and their claim doc target died! this isn't rocket science here!

[GuiltyLion]

have you even ever actually cased why you think I'm scum

like, the only thing that comes to mind is you Don't Approve of my militant and aggressive style of play

you also had that one meta point you made about me "wearing my heart on my sleeve" in my town games with you and feeling more stiff to you here, do you still hold that opinion? can you be more specific about what you thought where towntells in those past games that you don't see in this game, as I remember your description being subjective and vague at the time

[GuiltyLion]

I can't believe it feels like I have to lay this out again so explicitly, but once more

To believe that Alisae is town, all of the following MUST be true

- Alisae is town
- scum have some kind of ability to interfere with a doc protect
- this ability was active/available on N3
- either of the following: 1. if the ability relies on

knowing who the doc is

, scum must have guessed or known Alisae was the doc, or 2. the ability was a specific type of ability where knowing who the doc was doesn't matter (strongman)

vs

To believe that Alisae is scum, all of the following MUST be true

- Alisae is scum and lied about doccing Andante

now, generally odds of town!Alisae >> odds of scum!Alisae. That is always the starting point for probabilistic thinking. However, once we've added several other things that HAVE TO BE TRUE in town!Alisae world (scum ability exists, scum were able to use this ability on N3, scum were able to use it by either guessing Alisae was doc or it was the EXACT ability that didn't matter who the doc was), you have to weigh the odds of all of those things being true vs the odds Alisae is scum.

IMO it's pretty clear the odds that Alisae is just scum (3/8 from a town perspective) is more likely than the other explanation. that's what our friend Occam would tell ya. and then one can start then also factoring in that Alisae's play today is survivalist in nature and there aren't really a ton of super great or compelling reasons to townread the slot in general?

furtive, if you are town here, please genuinely consider this post seriously, and weigh that

honestly

against the reasons you have for thinking I'm scum. in my opinion, it is always better to weigh hard, tangible evidence vs our own personal theories about scumtells or how mafia play.

[GuiltyLion]

Jesus GL you are giving me bad vibes
I understand your argument, I get what you are saying but you are bludgeoning the thread with it in a way that suggesta there can be no other accepted outcome and doesn't feel town =/

I'm bludgeoning the thread with it because I'm frustrated I'm getting met with so much pushback AGAIN

after D2 of me not liking the wagon but compromising on it anyway

after D3 of me not liking the wagon but compromising on it anyway

whoever is also town here is either scumreading me or not listening to me (except for UNOwen mainly) and I don't know what to do other than keep yelling about it so at the very least if I die y'all will do what I want tomorrow

[GuiltyLion]

[/quote]

Your reads seem calculated to me, and there are some slots that you never seem to give a read on

At one point you scumread Nono but never followed it up

And then voting Ircher yesterday despite feeling bad about the 'gamestate' was strange

which reads feel calculated, and which slots am I not giving a read on?

I didn't follow up on Nono because Dragons replaced in and felt town? what are you saying town!me would have done there differently, continued to push a slot I didn't scumread? The primary reason I was voting/pushing Nono was that it was a nothing slot and I wanted to pressure Nono and pressure the rest of the game to evaluate Nono. I didn't have a strong scumread there at any point, it was early D1

I can understand my play on D3 feeling 'strange' but again, what would you expect town!me to do differently than what I did? I was right about Ircher being a bad wagon and every time I tried to explore other alternatives (voted you, voted Sleepy) I had 3-4 slots like Dragons, UNOwen, Bingle, Alisae, whoever come out of the woodwork and tell me I'm wrong or insist on the leading wagon instead of any counterwagons. combine that with some people hardcore coasting/lurking like Krew and Sheep and it's a gamestate where

nothing is happening

other than whatever the consensus wagon is just stalling until it goes through. if I'm scum I don't have to do shit I can literally vote park and call it a day, like it feels to me like half the reason you scumread me is I'm constantly posting and giving you things to Not Like

[GuiltyLion]

You know you're scumcasing yourself here by saying your entire trajectory for the past 2 days was to try to kill me

dude I am trying to kill Alisae. not you. and further I don't know what your alignment is!! like sure from your POV if you're town, me voting you is concerning, but consider from MY point of view if I'm town I've been desperately trying to drag wagons AWAY from slots that wound up flipping town

[GuiltyLion]

Can someone else look at the VCs I posted and come up with a scumteam that makes sense?

if you are town, Alisae+sheep+ ANYONE on the meowth wagon seems fine

[GuiltyLion]

We know scum have extra abilities. It doesn't seem a massive stretch that they would be available on N3

also, on this... it is still a stretch! I'll grant not "massive" maybe but a stretch all the same.

we know NOTHING about what those abilities are. we haven't seen any other town!abilities fail yet. we don't know if scum need funding to use those abilities. literally all we know is the opening post says scum may have other ways to "effect the game". Jumping from that point to "scum must have an ability to thwart a doc protect, that ability was online on N3, and they used it correctly" is jumping through several hoops. Each hoop individually may not be that big or far off the ground, but you have to jump through all three, and each jump makes the overall narrative/explanation more unlikely.

[GuiltyLion]

hey yall I hope you're enjoying your weekend I'm drunk at a wedding

I'll declare for whatever or nothing and towncase myself if someone like SK wants to throw hands

I have almost 400 posts I literally cannot post this much as scum

Thats my thoughts for now someone besides Alisae should declare sheriff I'll do it if no one else does by tomorrow morning

pce

[GuiltyLion]

bingle I'll do that meta for you later

[GuiltyLion]

this game is in some serious need for some Save The Dragons energy right now

[GuiltyLion]

Idk I dont really get the GL perspective mechanically

my very first thought was that the idea alisae protect got blocked is plausible enough that night results dont mean much to me, rather than it's intuitive to now assume alisae is effectively scum and go from there

unsurprisingly I get terrible vibes from this post

I don't know if it's worse if Alisae is town or if Alisae is scum but either way I don't like it

sheep how often do you find scum by looking for "plausible" explanations when night actions point to them being scum?

like why is this logic any different than someone getting guiltied and then another player being like "idk the idea of the cop being redirected is plausible enough that the night action doesn't mean much to me" like ?? we play based on what's most likely not by discarding any and all information because its "plausible" the information could be wrong

also Alisae what do you think about it? Like if I were in your shoes and I was

town

, this would stand out terribly to me. I don't get why you had no reaction to it?

[GuiltyLion]

The reason no one else wants to kill me is because I'm towny

This is also weird if I squint at it because the whole point of the game is that scum want to kill people who are town

like furtive is not thinking at all that there should be at least 3 players who advance their wincon if he flips

feels like scum mindset

[GuiltyLion]

can you respond to my actual argument? what is scummy or wrong with using the phrase "if I squint at it"? I'm confident I could immediately find several examples of town me saying that in other games

[GuiltyLion]

Desperate for my miselimination

Also why are you using the word "desperate" here? What in my posts is giving desperation

[GuiltyLion]

Desperate for my miselimination

Also why are you using the word "desperate" here? What in my posts is giving desperation

Expanding on this more it's actually bizarre to me this consistent pattern of you framing my actions today as if I'm pushing you. I've been suspicious or at minimum confused about almost everything you post, sure, but I haven't once said anything to suggest I'm voting you and I've offered several reach outs asking you to reset on me or consider my perspective if you're town, yet each time I've been met with a brick wall of "GL scum trying to kill me".

At this point it's starting to feel like an attempt to vortex my attention onto yourself, and I don't really see a town reason to be doing this unless you're just completely out of touch with what's actually happening in thread.