Mini 2292: Anything uPick - Day 8

[Enchant]

If Pink is SK who can't return town back on dying, we are kingmake and i side with him regardless.
If Pink is SK who can return town back on dying, we need to vote him to have chance. I dunno.
If Pink is Survivor, then eliming last mafia is best course of action.

Likelyhood of Pink telling truth about being survivor is pretty slim though, but let's try to go with that it possible.


I think, going with no-lim is best course of action regardless if Pink is SK or survivor.

[Enchant]

On other hand 50% population wincon really dissuades SK.

Like SK loses guarantee against lone maf? Meh.

[Wavelength]

Hey pinkball, wasn't I obvtown just a second ago? lol

[Wavelength]

If pinkball is a SK, and we vote for town or mafia, we lose.

If pinkball is a SK, and we no elim, then no matter who he eats over night he will claim tomorrow: "Welp, I was wrong. The person I just ate was revealed town to me, ___ has to be the last scum"

And we will have no idea if that is the truth, or if he ate mafia and needs us to miselim town, because his targets don't flip.

Like, from a SK!Pinkball PoV, whether he props his targets or not, then he has found his only possible path to victory and claimed accordingly.

I am also starting to think that PK is full bullet proof, and that is how he is supposed to win against scum this game.

Because scum trying to shoot PinkBall, and it failing, makes more sense to me then anyone here shooting Ali.

[Wavelength]

Yes, but combined with Marashu’s and PP’s roles scumteam would be loaded in a 9v3v1 were said 1 can scumside if they want.

Pinkball, for the record, it was this post that pushed me over the edge back to you are most likely the SK wincon.

Because you being able to scum side, regardless of who the last scum is, is way too much power.

[Pink Ball]

Hey pinkball, wasn't I obvtown just a second ago? lol

Before D5? Absolutely. After what I said on my last post? Not so sure, but still pretty inclined on being Flea.

[Pink Ball]

Yes, but combined with Marashu’s and PP’s roles scumteam would be loaded in a 9v3v1 were said 1 can scumside if they want.

Pinkball, for the record, it was this post that pushed me over the edge back to you are most likely the SK wincon.

Because you being able to scum side, regardless of who the last scum is, is way too much power.

A game being swingy is not too much power for any faction in particular. Your logic is getting worse

[Pink Ball]

I’ll have to reread the game, I’m coming back home today and I should have some spare time in around 12 hours

(This is still true, I’m back home but not available until the baby goes to sleep in a couple of hours)

[Wavelength]

Yes, but combined with Marashu’s and PP’s roles scumteam would be loaded in a 9v3v1 were said 1 can scumside if they want.

Pinkball, for the record, it was this post that pushed me over the edge back to you are most likely the SK wincon.

Because you being able to scum side, regardless of who the last scum is, is way too much power.

A game being swingy is not too much power for any faction in particular. Your logic is getting worse

Pinkball: Enchant can't be scum with hated+Redirect because that is just too much power for the scum team if I can scum side,

Wave: Both options (Enchant with Hated+Redirect and Flea with rolestop) is too much power if you can scum side (so I don't think you can scum side),

Pinkball: A game being swingy is not too much power for any faction in particular. Your logic is getting worse.

[Pink Ball]

Enchant is town, you added Flea being a rolestop there. Flea’s role is not that powerful if fae’s compulsive

[Flea The Magician]

Oh I'm 'nilla at this point. I gave my masks out.

[Pink Ball]

That's what I thought!

[Pink Ball]

(Flea I forgot to say this 'cause the day was over at that moment:

That's a guinea pig noise btw.

Also

You're obviously the MVP of this game from my point of view)

[Pink Ball]

Ok, I'm here, and this post is directed to you, Wave.

I gave it a second thought and now that there's no chance that either you or Flea got a redirector shot left, I'm in a better negotiation position than you are.

First off, Ali wants to ask you something:
"Do you realize where the idea came from that you could bring my targets back to life by killing me?"
'Cause it came from me, and I lied about it. What do you think that makes me look better in a position where I'm the main proposed elimination on D3: saying that by getting killed my targets come back, or saying that they aren't coming back? I'll answer that for you: we are on D5 and I'm still standing (yeah yeah yeah).
So you think I'm lying right now but told the truth earlier on D3? Your hopes are based on a lie, if you still want to be hopeful based on a lie, so be it, you do you, but I'm not losing this game because of you.

So back to my new strategy, now that I believe there's no redirector: I'm 1v1ing you, I don't care if you're town or scum, you either decide to win this shit with me RIGHT NOW, or you lose against me.

If you don't vote Flea, I'll vote no elimination and target you tonight.
- From scum!Flea's point of view, either if fae's believes my claim or not, this would be in fae's best interest since fae wouldkill Enchant and win. Scum's win condition is to control 50% of the population, so it doesn't matter what my role or win condition is. Fae won't shoot me in the off chance that I'm lying and my targets come back to the main thread: you and Ali (or Kokichi, depending on who I decide to yeet) would be back with Flea being confscum.
- If you're scum, you lose, period.

As I said when I revealed my entire strat and information I had:

But I'd rather win with town, since after N1 I had to legitimately scumhunt and I've been trying to win with town the entire game, so that'll feel like the better scenario, the "good ending" of this game.

And as Ali said: "force him to accept the win here, make him win kicking and screaming along the way".

[Enchant]

I hope it's not copypasta of messages.

[Pink Ball]

They aren’t

[Pink Ball]

Fuck I just realized what could be happening right now:

Wave, if you’re the remaining scum and vote Flea, I won’t act during the night and you kill Enchant.

Just going to throw that into the thread before you answer and have the full perspective.

[Wavelength]

Do you realize where the idea came from that you could bring my targets back to life by killing me

Yeah, I am aware.

I do think that the most likely game state is that you are a serial killer, and your targets die with you. But in that game state, we have already lost. So in order to play to my win con I basically have to ignore this possibility, and sort between the other options.

To just lay it all out there, from my PoV, here are all of the possible options:

1) You are a fancy SK, and town has already lost and we are just kingmakers.

I must ignore this possibility to play optimally

.
2) You are a Kidnapper Serial Killer, and if we kill you Ali and Kokichi come back, so if we want to win, we need to kill you
3) You have a survivor win con + Enchant scum. You have declared that you will never vote Enchant, and even if you are wrong on Flea you are eating me. In this world, we have already lost, and there is no way for me to win.

This is now also a possibility that I must ignore to play optimally

4) You are a survivor win con + Flea scum. I need to vote flea in order to win.

So, option 2 and option 4 are the only options that I get to even consider when choosing what to do today, despite option 1 being the most likely from my PoV.

I think that your targets coming back is at least plausible now that we have proven that your targets are sitting in a hood with you instead of in the dead thread. I do not really think that that is *more likely* to be true then option 1, but plausible at least.

I do however, think that it is *more likely* to be true then you just so happening to be the exact role you needed to be to have a fighting chance today + you are a role that could potentially scum side in this game, because that seems unbalanced + my reads are flipped (only to be corrected by the 3rd party who has no incentive to actually get it right today).

I just think that "since his targets are in a hood, maybe the come back" is more likely then all three of those other things being true.

[Wavelength]

I'm in a better negotiation position than you are.

I don't actually think that this is true btw.

Like, I think that voting Flea means we lose. And you are now threatening me that if I don't do that, then you are going to eat me and we will lose.

That is not a negotiating position. Its a meaningless threat.

[Wavelength]

But like, either way, you have to fight to survive.

So like, I get it. You are doing what you have to do.

But you making the exact arguments that you need to survive are not really very effective at convincing me that I am wrong, just that you are fighting to survive.

[Pink Ball]

I'm in a better negotiation position than you are.

I don't actually think that this is true btw.

Like, I think that voting Flea means we lose. And you are now threatening me that if I don't do that, then you are going to eat me and we will lose.

That is not a negotiating position. Its a meaningless threat.

I'm in a better position 'cause if we take options 2) and 4) of your previous posts like the only two alternatives, you're never getting option number 2) if Flea is scum 'cause Flea will prefer a no elimination than eliminating me.

[Wavelength]

I have generally come to the conclusion that scum!Flea does not fight me on killing you by putting fear no elim vote down once you voted for fear.

While Enchant has been doing the same thing you have been doing for the last several phases, which is calling me scum any time I make an argument that he is not town. Which feels like he is just calling me scum because he needs people to not listen to me.

And also, it lines up with how I was sorting this game last day phase / over the night anyways.

So like, it really does feel like you just came and threatened me with "You better vote out the person you think is town (and you lose), or I am going to kill you during the night (and you lose)"

[Pink Ball]

At this point I don't care to convince you that you're wrong about me, I want to convince you that if you don't vote Flea, you lose either way. I already tried to do it the good way already, since D4.

p-edit: I think Flea is the remaining scum, not you. I considered it and I'm still at that solve. And yes, I am threatening you, wasn't that clear enough?

[Wavelength]

And yes, I am threatening you, wasn't that clear enough?

I was not pointing out that it was a threat (it was clear) I was pointing out why the threat seemed meaningless.

[Pink Ball]

Also, I've called you scum only today because of pushing Enchant. I called you scum yesterday because of setup speculation but all and all it was because you were pushing a wagon on me with a correct analysis of the gamestate with the information you had at the moment. If town would've listened to you I would have to claim that Kokichi and PP were going to die in not ideal circumstances, so I needed to ridicule your argument.