Open 875 - The Kindgom of Zeal: The Queens Chosen - GAME OVER

[Umlaut]

Why is Ceph reading town

Tone, activity level, solviness, je ne sais quoi. I haven't reread and can't really back this up at the moment, if I could I'd be voting.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Why is Ceph reading town

Tone, activity level, solviness, je ne sais quoi. I haven't reread and can't really back this up at the moment, if I could I'd be voting.

parlez-vous français?

[furtiveglance]

Why is Ceph reading town

Tone, activity level, solviness, je ne sais quoi. I haven't reread and can't really back this up at the moment, if I could I'd be voting.

He just has un certain je ne sais quoi

What a good reason that's so easy for me to refute

Activity level? This isn't mafia.gg

Tone - Cephrir always has the same tone.

Solviness - it's easily faked.

I think all of these things would be rendered moot if you read any of Cephrir's scumgames

[furtiveglance]

Why is Ceph reading town

Tone, activity level, solviness, je ne sais quoi. I haven't reread and can't really back this up at the moment, if I could I'd be voting.

parlez-vous français?

Spoiler: franglais time

C'est pas parce que je pense que t'es bete que j'ai dit RR te suive sur moi. C'est car t'es plus bruyante.

Translation: I said RR possibly outside town meta because of the way they just considered a hypothetical with regard to me vs Ceph. I know how they play as town and it's very much based on strong social reads. I think you're town, not necessarily dumb, but your current trajectory is dumb, as is your blindness to scum hopping on the push you (effectively) started.

[Radical Rat]

I think you're wrong about me. Social reads definitely play a large part, but I do favor logical analysis/mech where it's available. Not that you have any real reason to believe me right now, and I'm much too lazy to dig up games, but for future reference you're just wrong here.

[Umlaut]

I've liked RR for town just because I agreed with them a lot, which is maybe not the strongest reason in the world but enough for me to look side-eyed at the "not a town thought process" accusations.

[Ranger]

Ranger you know that if Furtive is scum you are the most likely buddy yes?

Oh I'm aware.
furtive was at L-1.
I had the chance to hammer furtive.
I didn't.

I'm quite cognizant of how that appears. (My reasoning was more, despite my scumread on furtiveglance, had he flipped town then we would be dealing with you today. I didn't

know

he'd flip scum; I know it looks like I deliberately avoided flipping scum.)

Still, respectfully: your opinion means nothing. :P

(To be more apt, your read and view won't change my alignment; I don't care what your wrong view of me is.)

Your negative view of me won't influence my scumhunting. We have a hard 1v1. I'm obligated to give feedback. My feedback is furtiveglance is by far the scummier of the two. Given there's a need to decide the 1v1, I am required to take a side. You can mislim me D3, nothing I do or say today will change that because I made the mistake of not hammering furtive back then and I will need to deal with the consequences of the mistake tomorrow. But D3 is tomorrow, not today; today the focus is on {furtiveglance, Cephrir}, and so my contribution is in calling furtive the scum of the two.

like 1063 doesn't TMI you town at all. Infact it reads like something paraphrased from you

Oh it does.

Ranger's getting voted inevitably let's be honest. That would have been a waste of a check

Voting me requires me to not be nightkilled. (As a reminder, this is after I claimed N1 cop on Enchant.) furtiveglance didn't rule me out because I wasn't going to be nightkilled; furtiveglance ruled me out because he knew I would be a free mislim. That betrays both a scum mindset from furtiveglance and reveals he knows I'm town.

furtiveglance as town would also be a cop, and thinking as a cop, furtive would know I could be cleared. His decision to not "waste" a check on me is a decision to not clear up the biggest distraction in the game. (We're going to go into

day three

and still have you tunneling me. When I wanted it resolved day one.) His viewpoint doesn't consider my claim as a cop, and the value in a potential chain-clear. It betrays his scumteam suspected I was a doctor, despite me having deliberately avoided giving any reveal to my role D1.

The perspective also lays out a lack of concern with being killed. If I were a cop as I had claimed, then furtiveglance would have been at risk of being killed N1. He didn't think about this at all.

(Speaking of my claim, that deserves a separate post.)

[Ranger]

Since there's a hammer I'll just say I'm gonna cop Enchant.

I lied. :P
I protected furtiveglance last night.

Curious that neither Ranger nor furtive were killed...

Curious indeed. The kill suggests it was someone not believing my claim, since if scum believed my claim, they

should

have killed one of {furtiveglance, Ranger, Enchant} (to avoid double invest results).

The motive behind the lie was my having attempted to think like scum:

(Note: this analysis is all under furtiveglance being assumed town unless specified otherwise, because part of this plan was specifically to test if furtiveglance was town.)
With me having been unclaimed, there were two possibilities: either I would be a town doctor on furtiveglance, or I would be a town cop on an unknown target. Scum would not want to kill furtiveglance in this scenario, because I would be on him if I were a doctor. Scum

could

kill me to remove the unknown, but that'd be inadvisable. Since furtiveglance didn't announce his target, scum could, and

would

, kill the towniest slot they could think of which keeping alive wouldn't be +scum. (I thought this would be Cephrir if LLD were scum, Gimli if LLD is town, so had I not protected furtiveglance I still would've guessed the protection wrong, my bad Penguin. He was top 3, but I didn't think he was THE nightkill.)

Since scum naturally are inclined to kill the towniest slot they can think of, and I would need to attempt a hero-save to stop this (potentially letting the cop die and lose a mini-follow-the-cop), this was suboptimal.
In short, the default scum kill would be {town player,}, and that's it. No other option.

By claiming cop on Enchant (I chose Enchant because cops ideally cop someone middle of the road, Enchant fit the bill, I didn't want a townier slot to be my claim, and I didn't want to prevent furtiveglance from getting a guilty on a scummier slot by claiming that slot as my own target), the math changed.

Now, scum may or may not have believed the claim but they were not dealing with a total unknown.
They had to ask if I was lying or if I was telling the truth.
If I were telling the truth, then if they targeted a town player (Penguin as it turns out), it could generate two cop results in one night, massively +town.
That would necessitate removing one of the three known factors (as furtive didn't claim a target). They couldn't guess furtiveglance's target, so they would need to either kill him and risk running into a doctor on him (regardless of me or an unclaimed doctor) or spare him and pray.
Separately, they would need to either kill me to stop my enchant result, kill Enchant to invalidate it, or leave both of us alive and risk a result on Enchant. As I would not be protected and as I was a known claim, they would need to run a risk/reward on the situation.

In theory, this changed the scum's nightkill options from "{town player,}", to instead be {furtiveglance, Ranger, Enchant}.

Since the kill was still {town player} (Penuin) instead of any of {furtiveglance, Ranger, Enchant}, that implies the scum did not believe I was a cop.

This is actually important, because it informs who is likely/unlikely to be scum.
{Ethel, Gimli, KawaiiKame, Enchant} would all be inclined to believe my claim if they were scum.
Enchant's exasperation revealed he believed my claim.
KawaiiKame, Gimli, and Ethel are all new enough to take a town player at their word when claiming a twilight action (as they'd have no reason to suspect town would lie).

{Cephrir, Lady Lambdadelta, Radical Rat, Umlaut, furtiveglance} would all be disinclined to believe my claim as scum.
(Idk which group StD belongs in.)

Generally, scum actions are made by at least 2/3, so at least 2/3 scum should be in the latter group.

Since Cephrir/furtive are a 1v1, that leaves a near-guaranteed second scum in the group. I believe LLD is town, making 1-2 of {Radical Rat, Umlaut} likely scum. (+STD if he's among those who would disbelieve.)

If furtiveglance is scum as I suspect, then furtiveglance would know any protective actions would be on him, leaving the scum free to target whoever they wanted. With them disbelieving my cop claim, they would kill whoever they wanted, not afraid of the outcome.

Loosely, I feel the results of the night indicate scum weren't trying to stop furtiveglance and definitely didn't try to stop me. The most likely conclusion is not fearing furtive and believing I was a doctor lying and I'd be on furtiveglance (I was).

[Lady Lambdadelta]

this is just word vomit, please kill ranger once we're done sorting Ceph/Furtive

[Radical Rat]

I do understand your intention with the claim, but I think by claiming a target especially you messed it up. As a Town Cop, you'd have no reason to claim your target ahead of time, if scum buys your claim they can easily just kill the target, and your check is wasted without a huge fear of running into a Doctor, who's far more likely to be on the Cop than the target. So you clearly weren't really a Cop, or you'd have been giving that more thought, and I'd actually be more skeptical of the people who DID believe you if you're Town. Making the naive assumption that knowing you're Town means knowing you weren't lying is a mistake scum is likely to make.

The fact that neither you nor furtive were killed though is very peculiar in either world where you're Town though. If scum believed you, they should have killed within you, furtive, or Enchant, and if they didn't they should have probably killed you anyway as the most likely for furtive to check and the least likely to be protected.

[Ranger]

Side-note, 375 transparently looks like scum responding to a mounting wagon on their scumbuddy.

What's vc on furtive? Kind of like that wagon better, this one isn't doing anything.

I digress.

To my point,

VOTE: furtiveglance

VOTE: furtiveglance

VOTE: furtive

Vote Count 1-5

Ranger

(5)

:

Lady Lambdadelta - Ranger - redFF - Umlaut - Korina

furtiveglance

(3)

:

Gimli - Cephrir - Save The Dragons

VOTE: furtiveglance

VOTE: furtive

VOTE: furtive
L-1
Choo choo mother truckers !

Detective Penguin unvoted in 391, bringing it back down to L-2, but:

VOTE: furtive
that's probably e-1 idrc I just want this day over

These were the votes on furtiveglance.

Two proven town, and a third who furtiveglance is claiming a guilty on.

Do you believe all six votes were town? That'd leave two scum in {Lady Lambdadelta, KawaiiKame, Enchant, Ethel, Radical Rat}.

Possible

(KawaiiKame + RR for instance), but unlikely.

Do you believe two of the six votes were scum?

That'd be two scum in {Save the Dragons, Gimli, Umlaut}. (Technically Cephrir as well, but I don't buy the guilty on scumbuddy theory.) While

possible

, this seems quite unlikely.

Since the scumteam likely had 2-3 members who didn't believe my claim, with furtiveglance as scum we would need 1-2 scum in {LLD, RR, StD, Umlaut}.
We would need 1-2 scum in {LLD, KawaiiKame, Enchant, Ethel, RR}.
We would need 0-1 scum in {StD, Gimli, Umlaut}.

The common elements are {Umlaut/StD | RR, LLD}, divided up as shown.

If you believe LLD is town (I do), that strongly suggests a team of {furtiveglance, Radical Rat, Umlaut/StD}.

[Ranger]

Very town:

Lady Lambdadelta, Cephrir

Sorta town:

Ethel, Korina, Detective Penguin, Gimli

Nulltown:

Sail, Save The Dragons

Nullscum:

furtiveglance, Radical Rat

Scum:

redFF, Ranger

Furtive has had a couple of bad posts (83, 200) and really no good ones; Sail is the other way around, I like 162 and nothing stands out as bad. Red is just going with the flow in a way I don't like.

Upgrade furtive a tier for 222, because it's a relatively surprising but reasonable basis for a town read that I don't think would occur to someone who is just making stuff up (though if furtive is scum and Korina is town it's possible it's just a real reason, so not conclusive, just a good look)

Umlaut gives focus to me, to redFF, and upgrades furtiveglance, but very little on Radical Rat.


603 has Umlaut vote Korina, but as far as I can tell, Umlaut never addressed Korina between 207 and 603. What made Korina change from "sorta town" to scum? There was nothing.

VOTE: Radical Rat
I am random voting

Why? And why say you're doing it?

Why was Umlaut opposed to the Radical Rat vote from Enchant? According to Umlaut's readslist, RR was scum, yet this was more critical of Enchant than curious about RR. It reads as an RR defense more than anything else.

Umlaut's iso is quite favorable to both furtiveglance and Radical Rat.

[Ranger]

RR is scum piggybacking on your idea.

I believe this is true, but I believe it indicates RR is attempting distancing. Radical Rat's position on D1 suggested they believed furtiveglance was town rather strongly.

On D2, RR initially did not take a side, despite having killed redFF in part to save furtiveglance.

After LLD's arguments, RR went into suddenly going hard against furtive despite previously being neutral or even favorable towards furtive.

[Ranger]

It's certainly possible furtiveglance is scum with the Korina slot.
A main reason I'm doubting this is KawaiiKame's proven far more capable a scum player than what's been demonstrated this game. This is not the same KawaiiKame described as having been capable of solo-carrying the scumteam of Weird Dreams.

I've yet to delve deeper, will tackle that likely tomorrow.

[Enchant]

Ranger considers that i believed this claim, yet writes me in mafia afterwards.

Hilarious.

[Enchant]

I mean no. I didn't.

It was naive as hell.

[LavosCore]

Vote Count 2-2

Cephrir

(3)

:

Enchant - furtiveglance - Gimli

furtiveglance

(4)

:

Cephrir - Radical Rat - Ranger - Ethel

Not Voting

(4)

:

KawaiiKame - Lady Lambdadelta - Save The Dragons - Umlaut

With 11 players in the game, 6 are required to Yeet unto the Eternal Void .

Day ends in (expired on 2023-03-29 21:00:26)

Mod Notes

Pronouns are visible under a players name, please use them. If you're unsure, ask!

Whats a backup mod? Fortunately all I have to do with votes is update a JSON file and the rest is scripted for me.

[furtiveglance]

The fact that LLD is thinking Ranger is bussing me here is genuinely mindblowing. How naive do you have to be to think the scumteam is that desperate?

[furtiveglance]

Can some sensible people start voting correctly?

[Ethel]

Which arguments are convincing you?

At first I thought it wouldn't make sense for you to lie since you'd essentially just trade one for one, which doesn't seem worth it at all if you are scum. But people have said that you might have thought you would be voted out anyways and wanted to take one with you, and I remembered that you were very close to getting voted on day one until you claimed the N1 cop. And as others have suggested, if you had just cleared someone as town, people might not have bought it and instead thought you were lying. An additional hint pointing to that scenario is the fact that you deliberately took your time announcing who you checked, which might have been because you were trying to see if faking a claim was necessary. Of course, none of this means that you can't just be telling the truth, but I feel like it's also possible that you're lying, so I'm going with that option.

[Umlaut]

Ethel is town

[Enchant]

Cephrir - Doc (N3: No)
Ethel
Gimli
KawaiiKame Korina
Lady Lambdadelta
Radical Rat
Ranger - Doc (N1: furtiveglance)

Enchant

Save The Dragons
Umlaut
furtiveglance - Cop (N1: Cephir Mafia)

redFF - Cop (N3: No)
Detective Penguin - Cop (Unknown)

Cops: 3 (2 confirmed) (must be 4-6)
Doctors: 2 (must be 4-6)

[Enchant]

redFF claims N3 cop: Oh well useless kill lol
Ceph claims Doc: OH WE NEED THIS PR PLEASE DON'T KILL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[furtiveglance]

Are people really scumreading me for not claiming immediately?

[furtiveglance]

I'm thinking about this setup, and I'm wondering whether it's good to mass claim whether you're a Cop or a Doc. If you get a 7/6 split, you know at least 1 in the 7 group is Mafia. If you get 8/5, 2 in the 8 are Mafia, and if 9/4, 3 in the 9 are Mafia. Now obviously Mafia will try to create a 7/6 split, probably by claiming 2/1 themselves, but this could in theory lead to an 8/4 split if it's 6/4 among the town. And if we could engineer the order of the mass claim to make scummier slots go first, we could get some info out of it.

As for potential disadvantages, I don't know if there are any. Is it even good for Mafia to kill Cops or Docs? As long as no one claims the night they act, I don't think it helps mafia much.