Micro 1075: The Coalition of Imaginary Creatures (Game over)

[Bingle]

I AM A BEAUTIFUL ANIMAL!

HEAL: Bingle

Sorry we couldn't do a rehash of your first game, Keychain. I guess you'll just have to settle for a subpar scumbuddy.

[Bingle]

So, I think I've come up with a way to break this setup.

We don't select a coalition D1, and when lilith goes to end the day she'll get confused by the fact that there is no instruction for when no coalition is formed and just reveal the scumteam.

[Bingle]

I didn't. But more importantly, what did you like about Keychain's entrance?

[Bingle]

Non sequitur, that.

[Bingle]

Some dead person's razorblades suggest that you were just the last person to confirm and not actually psychic, liesidegal.

[Bingle]

I'm not

a fan of that

(The aggressive coalition building)

, to be honest.

My bad.

HEAL: Deltabreedy

[Bingle]

Delta, are you actually new or an alt? Doesn't actually influence my read at this point, just a point of curiosity.

[Bingle]

For instance, I don't trust meta reads at all

That's really unfortunate. My meta is being town, so it's really just easier overall if you townread me on that.

[Bingle]

Just a feeling. If you disagree that's fine. I didn't like Deltabreedy because they didn't make it clear if they were voting me because they disagreed with me or not; now I'm not sure why they are not a fan of my "aggressive coalition building"

Interesting, we're seeing almost exactly the opposite thing here. I thought Key's entrance had a lot of frantic energy that came across as awkward, but is explained by the excitement she had in joining the game and therefore null to me.

I think Delta's non sequitur response where he didn't really seem to care much about making it understandable what he was saying, but rather just saying the first thing that popped into his head is the towniest thing in the thread right now.

[Bingle]

I was camping the micro queue and then hassling people to join the game, your read of the frantic energy is correct and I am going to try and tone it down so the game isn't too annoying to read for the people who aren't here yet!

Yeah, I'd think it slight scum indicative if I wasn't literally in the game because when I logged in to review a setup for someone for the first time in months I had an invitation to join from you.

[Bingle]

{nsg}
{umlaut}
{dunnstral, delta}
{keychain,

bingle

}

[Bingle]

it was a prepared post

Why would it being a prepared post suggest a specific alignment? If anything, the point of a prepared post would be to make the post AI neutral regardless and it would defeat the point to change it based on the role you actually drew.

[Bingle]

no offense

I legitimately don't think you could offend me if you tried, nsg.

[Bingle]

NSG, what is it that you find bad about 57? The problem I thought I saw with it isn't actually there.

I thought she was claiming it was a bad post because it was intentionally designed to lead to a specific conclusion (which it was) as opposed to directly read delta.

The conclusion being that the post likely wasn’t prepared.

[Bingle]

I have good news and bad news. I’m not going to post game relevant content tonight. Also, my cousin’s cancer is in remission.

[Bingle]

There explicitly is a decent town motivation for not being in your proposed coalition. I very much doubt Kame knows what it is or believes it.

Dunn's chainsaw of Key feels off. I don't think it's damning of Dunn, but I do think it's a strong reason to believe Dunn/Kame is not a S/S pair. For this reason, I would like 0-1 of them in the coalition. Dunn, what specifically about Key's reasoning on Kame do you think is scum indicative. I get not agreeing, but why is it scummy?

I'm interested to hear nsg's thoughts on nsg townreads.

I'm fairly certain on my Delta townread at this point. His play has all the hallmarks of newbtown dropped into an established lobby. Yes, I understand the previous experience, but I think that would, if anything, increase the amount of trepidation about being this open and gung ho with reads when there's clearly a lot of baggage in the thread. Contrast patchwerk, who's posting seems very careful. I think either Delta is very confident in his scumgame or just town here, and I'm just not feeling big ego energy.

[Bingle]

^I don't mean to imply that patchwerk is scum with that post, and think the caution is NAI. I actually like that patch seems to be starting with familiar faces given the coalition mechanic.

[Bingle]

I think it's NAI, but dropping the 'Newbtown' as a qualified when discussing my play will only serve to delegitimise reads and arguments that I develop further down the line. I'd appreciate you recanting and reconsidering the wording.

Disagree strongly. Newbtown frequently have better reads than established players. The only real change is how they're likely to react to certain situations, like injokes between fogeys.

[Bingle]

but if you're town and your coalition doesn't that mean you only have to hunt for four towns?

That is the reason to include yourself in the coalition, yes. I'm explicitly not interested in talking about the reason for not including yourself in your coalition at this time.

Note: I am in fact including myself in my coalition.

[Bingle]

wait someone's chainsawing?

Dunn attacked Key for questioning the Kame. I don't think it makes Dunn scum, but I do think it makes Dunn and Kame not S/S.

[Bingle]

why not?

Because I intend to use the information that makes it reasonable later in the game and don't want scum to play around it and also because if Kame starts arguing it it's slightly town indicative.

[Bingle]

i dont really like this aggressive coalition building but tbh there’s no harm in it
don’t really have time to think about the game run but ill get back soon

As an addendum, I don't see a single original thought from any of this post. Umlaut's #63 is a lot of words that broadly say 'I agree' or 'I disagree'. No attempt at game-solving.

Post #65 above has a question for (I think) Northside, wherein they agree that the post is bad, but are looking more towards me than the person that posted it? Odd.

--

Ninja'd:

One thing that I also don't particularly like is the quotation out of context by Bingle. The quote should read

The fact that I think it was a prepared post gives me bad vibes

not

it was a prepared post

Delta it is page 3 why do you expect people to be gamesolving at like
60 posts

Representative careful posts. Overall, you seem hesitant to commit to anything. There's a lot of questioning and not a lot of actual explanation. There's a lot of emphasis on trying to figure things out and not a lot on sharing your conclusions.

The thing is that scum who aren't immediately confident in their scumgame (either because they're playing with new people or because they've never played before) are slightly more likely to play this way. The longer someone has been in a meta, the less this tell matters.

[Bingle]

HURT: Keychain

I am a bit concerned that I don't like some of your posts and I feel better about patchwork and KawaiiKame than I do about you right now. I am reading KawaiiKame's posts differently than you are (they should explain what they are doing though)

^chainsaw post.

[Bingle]

Mild scumread of patchwork at this point, btw.

[Bingle]

Roughly where I'm at:

Town
Bingle
Deltabreedy
Dunnstral
KawaiiKame
northsidegal
Umlaut
patchwork
Keychain
Scum


Clodpoles:
Not_Mafia

[Bingle]

absolute tosh.

Is it necessarily scum tosh though or do you think it's a POV townwerk would have?

[Bingle]

elaborate on the kame read? or maybe i'm just misreading the placement as meaningful relative to where i am

Kame has posted vaguely aight things and nothing I find actively objectionable. They have the game state read of not scum with specifically dunn which gives them the edge on you. Dunn has posted things that are vaguely town, but not so much so that I want him on the coalition. Umlaut is a minor scumlean and patch and key are both giving off majorly appease-y buddy-y vibes. I don't think Key is slam dunk scum, but yeah, I'm pretty sold on no key-a-lition.

[Bingle]

i'm trying to be nice because that's kind of what you're supposed to do when talking to people

There is a difference between being a genuinely nice person and faking niceness, but neither of those are what I mean by appease-y.

Your play leaves me with the impression that you're trying to get me to trust you and tailoring your play to what you think I want to see. Tone has very little to do with that, overall.

[Bingle]

you said that i wasn't doing much so i started participating more???

That's kind of... Exactly what I'm talking about. This flurry of activity in response to me saying you're not active enough makes me concerned that you're more focused on how people see you than their intentions. I also see very little paranoia about why I'm doing what I'm doing. You just seem to be accepting that my motivations are town ones.

[Bingle]

Fair point. Kame's exclusion of themselves seems an interesting thing to dig into, but not one that I personally need to dig into, since there's enough people poking that particular horse. I'm content to sit and watch things there develop.

I don't think it's something that is going to be a dealbreaker on a coalition inclusion for me at this point.

[Bingle]

I didn't. But more importantly, what did you like about Keychain's entrance?

Just a feeling. If you disagree that's fine. I didn't like Deltabreedy because they didn't make it clear if they were voting me because they disagreed with me or not; now I'm not sure why they are not a fan of my "aggressive coalition building"

Dunn feels pretty carefree here. This relaxed but active play from him feels very different than my vague recollection of his manipulative and lurky scumstyle. I also like the complete willingness to make dime turn reads reversals like the delta one.

I don't consider me putting somebody into the coalition to be me betting the game that they are town. I think being aggressive and pushing a coalition early based on gut feeling is more likely to be successful than dragging it on and allowing mafia to influence things. Also taking more time on day 1 when we have no info is not likely to be helpful to us.

This seems like a protown stance to take. Honestly, it's not the end of the world if we don't win on coalition, and being proactive and flexible is +town points at this point.

Overall, Dunn doesn't seem like he's pushing a narrative or playing with an agenda, and while he's certainly capable of faking this as scum (or used to be) I think this is page 3 town.

I will say I'm not a big fan of the last couple posts though.

[Bingle]

Roughly where I'm at:

Town
Bingle
Deltabreedy
Dunnstral
KawaiiKame
northsidegal
Umlaut
patchwork
Keychain
Scum


Clodpoles:
Not_Mafia

To clarify readstrength:

Bingle

Several pages

Delta

Several lines

Dunn

Kame

nsg

N_M

Umlaut



patch
key

Several Pages

ConfScum.

[Bingle]

interestingly, this exclusion pool exactly follows the heuristic that scum tend to be found in the lower half of posting frequency.

the direction of causality that you think that follows depends on your faith in my abilities as a scumhunter.

I think you have absolutely no ability to read me, as evidenced by you coming to scumread me in literally every game I can ever remember playing with you, but that you will still listen when I speak enough that I don't really care. I think, aggregately, that you have better reads than I do, and none of the players I think I would be specifically better at reading than you are in this game. I think I will be able to figure out your alignment in the long term with decent accuracy. Given that I have 0 completed games in the last two years, I'm not incredibly confident on any of these points.

[Bingle]

i took what you said as criticism lol not like "omg this is what people want me to do so i am doing it now"

As an aside, trying to change your playstyle to satisfy the expectations of others is likely to cripple your scumhunting effectiveness and not worth the time. Do what you need to do to find scum.

In this game, I think you are vaguely scummy for the way you have approached me and you're not going to convince me that those impressions are wrong by telling me those impressions are wrong. If you're town, go ahead and accept that I think you're more likely scum than not and do things you think will benefit town. My reads will evolve as the game progresses. If you're scum, go ahead and accept that I think you're more likely scum than not and do things you think will benefit scum. My reads will evolve as the game progresses. Either way, fixating on a single player and their read is a great way to eat an early elimination.

[Bingle]

If I were to make a coalition right now it'd be me, delta, dunn, nsg, umlaut. Yes, I'm aware that this is not the 5 people I think are towniest.

[Bingle]

I don't want to know who they are if you have, but have you put any thought into associative reads?

[Bingle]

I don't want to come across as chainsawing.

Despite not liking this post, I think I should unpack this a bit.

I don't think that you intended the play as a chainsaw, or that you were specifically trying to rescue Kami. I don't even really think theoretical scum you was intentionally WK-ing Kame with that post, which might have been implied by my phrasing. But that, legitimately, is what it accomplished. Your retraction of a town read on Key immediately following Key's push on Kame undermined said push without directly defending Kame. That, by definition, is a chainsaw.

I think a theoretical scumyou who is scum with Kame would be more in tune to how your interactions would look and would naturally be more hesitant to make this kind of attack. That's the beginning and end of it.

[Bingle]

what does this mean

Focusing on how other people read you is the worst approach to mafia, ime.

[Bingle]

I guess this will probably be necessary eventually, so to get it out of the way:

I'm Bingle. Also Jingle. At one point I was probably in the top 10% of scum players on site. I used to be okay at playing town, but nothing amazing.

I'm also best known for being an excellent moderator and a damn good reviewer, mostly of opens and mechanically complicated theme games.

It is my game philosophy to not lie about the mechanical advantages provided by tactics, so you can safely assume that when I say something mechanically oriented it is entirely NAI and also that I believe that there is a protown reason for me to promote that belief. I do lie about things being protown, but almost exclusively it's because I think telling the truth is actively harmful to town and rarely it's because telling the truth will mechanically lock scum me out of winning the game. I think locking in a coalition should be done by Friday at the latest.

[Bingle]

Not-Mafia

Hi Mary Jo Lisa.

I can’t help but notice your reads list is an inversion of mine. Have you been standing on your head again?

[Bingle]

I am taking this seriously, I've given reads and a co-alition

This is true, btw. NM is playing as NM plays. It is frustrating as hell and unhelpful sometimes, but he genuinely does play to win.

River is almost certainly deltabreedy, as a river delta is formed when a river deposits silt at the outlet.

[Bingle]

This on the other hand is a bad read

Are you saying the chainsaw wasn't AI or that what I actually got from the chainsaw wasn't valid? Cause I think we're on the same page now but I want to double check.

[Bingle]

"chainsaw" as being the name of a scumtell

Theoretically it is, but it's a shitty scumtell.

[Bingle]

Hm. I wonder if they got rid of the old custom double hurt tags.

HURT WITH A BLADE: test

Excellent.

[Bingle]

Yeah but 1 in 5 is not improved odds from 2 in 9... unless I can't do maths

I mean... It kinda is.

So, the thing I didn't explain earlier is this:

Coalition Victory > 2 Scum in Coalition > 2 Scum outside of Coalition. If you are absolutely sure that scum will be on the coalition, you want both scum on the coalition. You also want high priority nightkills on the coalition, because then scum is forced to make the suboptimal choice of narrowing the coalition pool if they want that person dead. Which is why nsg is 100% on the coalition. Delta slot (Hey Eir) is pretty obvtown at this point.

Not_Mafia, even if he were modconfirmed town, is a shit option for a coalition slot, because scum will never shoot him, unless we actually commit to the policy elim. I'm not interested in the policy elim at the moment.

If we choose an accurate coalition, game is over. If not, limming on coalition is a 30% to hit scum (naive calculation with the assumption that P(1 on and 1 off) and P(Both on) are the same) and off coalition is a 12.5% to hit scum. If we can increase the odds that both scum are either on or off (by seperating S/T reads and collecting S/S reads) we approach a 40% lim rate on D1, which is a pretty good consolation prize.

It's like Monty Hall, the odds of switching your choice giving you a car are better than you might intuitively guess.

[Bingle]

ewwwww light mode mafiascum exists?

I use silver on Bingle and Sepia on Jingle. MafBlack is reserved for hydrae.

[Bingle]

it's not super relevant, but explain where you're getting 30% from? my naive analysis gave that eliminating from within the coalition (while being reads agnostic, i.e. assuming that everyone in the coalition is a genuine scum candidate) is optimal unless you're about 62% sure that there's only one scum in, and if you're 50/50 on it then you have a 20% chance to hit scum. saying that, i think that maybe i'll rethink about it given the fact that i know that i'm town and also taking into consideration people overwhelmingly considered consensus townreads (although just saying that it seems to also favor eliminating within the coalition).

Given a failed coalition, we're in 1 of 2 states. Either there is 1 scum in the coalition (1/5 or 20%) or 2 scum in the coalition (2/5 or 40%).

The naive assumption is that those two are equally likely, and the math gets arbitrarily complicated if we don't make that assumption. If they are equally likely, the odds of eliminating scum inside of that pool is the average of the two probabilities, or 30%.

This is from the PoV of someone outside of the pool who is informed of 0 alignments. From the PoV of someone inside the pool who is town, the numbers jump to 25% and 50% (an average of 37.5%).

[Bingle]

Though I do think Umlaut's strategy appeals more to me

They're not mutually exclusive. Priority 1: put town in coalition. Priority 2: if you're unsure on 5 townreads, group likely teams together. It's an additive layer of strategy, not a replacement.

[Bingle]

HEAL: nsg
dunn

[Bingle]

i strongly oppose these 3 people being in the coalition and would like anyone who currently has them in their coalition to explain their reasoning

Already mentioned the read on Dunn. I have also been feeling better about Umlaut recently, and wouldn't strenuously object to his inclusion. I think if he's scum it's likely to be with Dunn or you and I don't think either Dunn or you is likely scum at the moment.

Honestly kind of surprised that I'm not in the top 5, given that I feel I'm being fairly townread atm.

Is your exclusion of Kame from this list because you're feeling better about them or because they don't have the votes that you feel the need to voice your concern?

[Bingle]

Bingle - conftown from my POV
Eiralox - treating this as spewed town today. The particular frustration at N_M is a town one, I think. I doubt scum gets that upset over N_M being unreadable when N_M doesn't look unlimmable.
Not_Mafia - I'm not going to bother partner hunting N_M, I don't think that's a useful way to spend my time.

northsidegal
Dunnstral
Umlaut
patchwork
KawaiiKame
Keychain

That's 15 scumteams for me to examine. I can handle that.

[Bingle]

Anytime

Ok, can you post it at 2:32.56 AM next Thursday?

[Bingle]

All of them.

[Bingle]

Bingle - conftown from my POV
Eiralox - treating this as spewed town today. The particular frustration at N_M is a town one, I think. I doubt scum gets that upset over N_M being unreadable when N_M doesn't look unlimmable.
Not_Mafia - I'm not going to bother partner hunting N_M, I don't think that's a useful way to spend my time.

northsidegal
Dunnstral
Umlaut
patchwork
KawaiiKame
Keychain

That's 15 scumteams for me to examine. I can handle that.

I'd only gotten halfway through nsg, but the post I'd left on my desktop seems to have disappeared. I'm not sure how much of this I'll get to tonight, but I hope to at least get through the 5 nsg options since they should go fast.

NSDunn: Possible, but unlikely. NSG townreads dunn early and it slips when she herself becomes very locktown, so it's potentially a thing that she was aware that scum's optimal out here is one on one off. 155 is particularly interesting as a set up for a bus without teeth (we're absolutely limming off the coalition group if we get that far) and nsg seems to be paying a lot of attention to dunn in particular. I don't know if nsg sets up a bus, though. Seems dangerous for a player who is considered very strong town and thus should theoretically have a short shelf life. I'm also not sure this tracks with Dunn popping back in right when nsg starts the "No Dunns in Brooklyn" campaign.

nörth: Very Unlikely. 13 is a bit antipartnery. Umlaut's steady downward trajectory through her readlist without much explanation or interaction doesn't feel like bus energy. As an aside, I think umlaut is considerably better than I did before having reiso'd here. Interested to see if that trend continues when I ISO them and the other usual suspects.

northpatch: The psychic abilities back and forth reads weird here. The patchwork defense of nsg comes across awkward, being entirely aimed at delta and not at all at NSG. NSG not having a scumread here in 96 is also a little :eyebrows: If nsg scum this is the most viable partner so far.

Turtleside: I think the biggest interaction read here is 356. Dismissing nsg/key as TvT seems low effort, but I'm not sure how Kame treats scum partners. Kame seems very unworried for someone with literally no one townreading them and townreads on all but two players, which could mean a well positioned scumbuddy.

@Kame

: Do you have any completed scumgames I can look at? I assume no, but no harm in asking.

The Scary Team: I'm lowkey worried because the 1v1 here that people are dismissing as town is a great position for scum. Like, honestly, this team is possible, and also probably the worst possible case for town. I'm just gonna ignore it for now, though.

[Bingle]

nörth: Very Unlikely. 13 is a bit antipartnery. Umlaut's steady downward trajectory through her readlist without much explanation or interaction doesn't feel like bus energy. As an aside, I think umlaut is considerably better than I did before having reiso'd here. Interested to see if that trend continues when I ISO them and the other usual suspects.

Addendum, this also seems very antipartnery. Seems weird to sheep nsg's read blindly then actually admit that and recant if they're S/S.

Sträl: Decently likely. 107 is a challenge that never gets answered or followed up on, which is odd. Both players went lurk shortly after, so it's not too hair raising, but I'd like to see where that reaction goes from there and they should probably get to that. I definitely raised Umlaut's hackles a bit with the chainsaw read, but umlaut seems uninterested in pursuing it when he realizes I mean it entirely as an anti associative tell. Weird situation where Umlaut gets offended when Key's read slips down for brief inactivity and then immediately mentions the read on Dunn slipping for inactivity of roughly the same duration.

Dunwork: Absolutely no interaction until very recently, where dunn asks patch to unpack a "don't Coalate" read on another player after patch comes out with a don't coalate dunn read. Nothing really precluding or making this more likely.


DunnKame: Unlikely. See chainsaw comment. Additionally the way Kame describes going about copying Dunn's strategy for coalitioning in 108 doesn't seem like scum copying a scumbuddy. Potentially scum copying a town player if I squint. This assumes you believe that the explanation of 108 means Kame thinks aggressive coalition building is a towny thing to do, but I don't see why they would enter the way they did if they don't.

Dunnchain: No really meaningful interactions. Could go either way with this crowd.

[Bingle]

That's it for tonight. Should be able to manage the rest tomorrow.

[Bingle]

If that is in response to the above it’s worth pointing out that I’m not looking at whether the individuals are scummy but whether they can be paired. I would be shocked to find anyone in the pool that didn’t have any likely partners.

[Bingle]

Fair nuff.

[Bingle]

Umlaut
patchwork
KawaiiKame
Keychain

And thus we struggle onwards in that most futile effort we call life.

Umpatch: 85 is a pretty weak read, but I feel like the thought is a genuine one. I don't agree that the waffling is really a progression, but I think calling it one means that the explanation a few posts later is a real reason. That points to S/T or T/T, because it's usually harder to get a genuine townread on your buddy. (Aside, definitely think patch never responding to this is interesting.) Um doubles down on a weak reason to read patch town in 181. Seems like an odd move to stick out your neck for a struggling buddy when you're not in a particularly strong position yourself. Patch never mentions Umlaut. Could be that Umlaut is just aware of the weirdness of never mentioning a scumbuddy, but I lean to not a team here.

Kawaï: Eminently possible. kawaii calls um town twice. The first is blank in a coalition vote, the second is "shifting reads with new information." As of the first townread that doesn't really describe Um's behavior. In fact, Um is basically doing the opposite (holding to the patch read despite Key arguing against it) which implies the read might be faked.

Chäin: Lotsa weird byplay here. Key calls out Umlaut for inactivity and backs down easily when Umlaut wasn't missing particularly long. There's also the disagreement over patch where they just kind of stop talking about patch. It's weird for scum to have sentiments about mindmelding with their buddy. gth this is not how an S/S interaction plays out here.

[Bingle]

Keychain

Unpack this for me?

[Bingle]

Patchwork/Kame: Patch being hyperaware of players not being around yet makes sense if they're waiting on a scumbuddy, but patch trying to bus kawaii for cred and 367 in general just really doesn't make sense for scum to post if they're both scum. Kame's list not containing patch in it is also really antipartnery, particularly given the poor position they'd both be in. Seems like a good way to lose. I doubt this is S/S.


Locksmith: 92 Seems like it could be partner/partner. First point of interaction between the two, and it's a request from Key to have Umlaut explain a townread on patch. This is a great way as scum to cement a townread on your buddy, which I know Keychain knows having used it to great effect in her literal first game. Particularly, the fact that she's content to just let it drop with an agree to disagree makes this noteworthy. (Yes, I'm aware of the fact that I literally just asked Umlaut to explain his townread on Keychain. That's different and the rules don't apply to me because I'm just awesome like that.)


KawaiiKeychain: 99 feels a little on the nose.

These posts as a total contribution so far from someone who (from a skim through their completed games) often posts multiple times over the course of a few minutes and asks a lot of questions is the shadiest thing I've seen this game, and picking the most popular coalition (Dunn's one, which is the same as Umlaut's and mine plus Delta) without even putting themself in it makes me want to throw out my whole coalition for having Kawaii's scum buddy in it

This strikes me as potential cheeky scum calling out an awkward post by their buddy and how it links them together, and it feels like a "Surely I wouldn't point out exactly what my partner is doing there." kind of attempt. Well, I think you would, and also don't call me Shirley, imaginary brain Keychain. The fact that Key doubles down on it in 341 doesn't make it any better.

I'll do a conclusions post later.

[Bingle]

I know nsg is probably going to feel betrayed, but HEAL: umlaut

[Bingle]

Hm, so patchwork has decided to open wolf. Good to know.

[Bingle]

Nah but that's because I don't think effort is AI for bingle (see his earlier comments about how good he is as scum). I've seen him do the scumteam thing as town before, I doubt he'd let himself acquire such an obvious tell by never doing it as scum.

I have examined scumteams as scum before and I’d honestly be disappointed if you townread me based on this.

I’m not 100% certain but I think I’ve actually done it in more scum games than town ones, though I don’t think I’ve ever done it on D1 before. Effort is entirely NAI from me.

[Bingle]

HURT: Everyone

[Bingle]

I'm busy for the next several hours, but I have thoughts I'd like to share before coalition gets hammered. I don't imagine that is going to actually be an issue, but this is explicitly a request that that not happen in the next 12 hours.

[Bingle]

While that's an excellent callback to that game proving your memory is better than mine, "what progression" was not asking him to explain the townread, I just didn't see any progression between the two posts so was asking about that.

And your imaginary Keychain is correct Shirley, if Kawaii were my partner struggling with one of their first scum games, I would probably not jump on them so hard from their very first post, read up on how they're acting different than previous games to push them before the people with direct experience with them can chip in, and keep them as my top scumread ever since their appearance unless they asked me to bus them because they were hating the game, that's technically possible. I feel I'd be much more likely to try to make it easier for them to post naturally - I might fail, but I'd give it a shot first.

The point isn't that you would remember that game, but that I have reason to believe you would totally do something along those lines. And I think you would have no problem admitting that you would totally do something along those lines. Those lines being seeing someone expressing a townread on your buddy poorly and asking for clarification.

wrt the self meta, my normal response would be to dismiss self meta, but this actually rings true. I do think that personality wise you would tend to be a more supportive scumbuddy than a less supportive one, and I don't think kame is receiving the kind of support that you would give in a PT. In fact, I'd say that argument extends a bit farther to include patchwork. I think you, specifically out of the player list would be inclined to coaching and I think patch's play has a distinct lack of "coached by a scumbuddy" behind it.

[Bingle]

Viable pairs:

NSG/Dunn
NSG/Patchwork
NSG/Kawaii
NSG/Key
Dunn/Umlaut
Dunn/Patchwork
Dunn/Key
Umlaut/Kawaii
Umlaut/Key
Patchwork/Kame


NSG: 4
Dunn: 4
Umlaut: 3
Patchwork: 3
Keychain: 3
Kame: 3

While going through the playerlist, it struck me how few antipartnery vibes NSG actually had. Initially, I was also concerned about the same thing with Keychain, but her response to my points about her actually does make me feel better there, so I removed those pairs. Looking at this, I actually have a desire to explore the reason why you'd have a townread specifically exclude themselves from the coalition:

A player who is acknowledged as having particularly strong reads and a particularly good scumgame can be leashed to create a townpool excluding themselves in some setups. This pool can be useful for things like directing cops or doctors without said cops or doctors having to out. It's also particularly useful for weird setups like AITP where reducing thread content is desirable.

In that vein

@nsg: If you were to create a pool of five players for the coalition right now which did not include you, which five would it be?

[Bingle]

I agree he has good posts though I'm not sure they outweigh the fluff that feels more empty to me - people naturally have different posting rates, it's more of a percentage thing, and by percentage I mean how much I feel like it's one or the other because I haven't counted. 226 is certainly one of those good posts. 57 is one of the posts I was thinking of more as generic helpfulness with not much personal opinion though.

Fluff to content ratio isn't a good metric for reading me directly. There is a thing it points to, but me fluffing isn't actually scum indicative, even if it's the only thing I'm doing.

Basically, the more fluff, the more I'm enjoying the game. That can be helpful when looking to see if I'm acting like I'm enjoying the game for other reasons (If for example I'm detached but still fluffing that's a red flag, because the fluff indicates I want to read the game and the detachment indicates there's a reason I'm not reading the game) but your calculus is lacking in depth.

Similarly, mech to analysis isn't a good metric for me, because I'm going to post exactly as much mech as I think the setup needs and the rest of my field will be analysis. If I'm being mech heavy, it means that the fields in which I'm growing my fucks are insufficient to the requirements of the game.

Together, having a lot of mech and a lot of fluff with not a lot of analysis and a level of detachment from the thread is a pretty solid reason to scumread me, but I don't actually think I've been analysis light this game, and I think it's interesting you feel I have.

[Bingle]

buddying the newbie vibe

Explicitly, yes. I buddied Delta. I've also been buddying nsg. That's not really scum indicative, though.

[Bingle]

NSG/Dunn
NSG/Patchwork
NSG/Kawaii
NSG/Key
Dunn/Umlaut
Dunn/Patchwork
Dunn/Key
Umlaut/Kawaii
Umlaut/Key
Patchwork/Kame

Based on updated reads and this:

My desired coalition would be:

Bingle

Eir
Umlaut
NM
NSG

Key

Dunn

Kame

patchwork

The top 4 are individually my strongest townreads, roughly in that order. I have reservations on Key for calling me out as 'too helpful' without explicitly mentioning my buddying. I don't take exception to her read on me, and if I am excluded from the coalition she's my inclusion. (It's somewhat expected, tbh.) NSG hasn't done anything that I can't see scum her pulling, but I explicitly want her in the coalition because town her is a bullet magnet. I think on the whole what Dunn has given is towny but there's very little precluding him from being scum with anyone and so I'm not particularly thrilled with seeing him join the coalition.

[Bingle]

A bit about NM:

Admittedly, it has been years since I've played with N_M, but when I did his contribution to the scumthread was nonexistent. He was intensely useless as a scumbuddy and only marginally less so as a town player. His reads were aight, but he had all the charisma of a wet paper bag.

355 is already more of an explanation of reads than I would ever expect from the old NM. The active antagonism towards Delta is also +town points based on my old metric, because old N_M just didn't give a fuck about scumgames.

I don't know if this is still true, but viewtopic.php?t=90377 strongly suggests it is. If no one contradicts this, it means N_M is almost certainly town by meta.

Also worth noting, that link is a scum PT that N_M forgot about for several days, which means that nsg's reason for townreading N_M holds water about as well as the aforementioned wet paper bag.

[Bingle]

Spoiler: A Bit About Patchwerk

Patchwerk originally appeared as a boss in classic Naxxramas, being one of Kel'Thuzads most powerful abominations. His strength and speed came as a shock to those that faced him in combat. Far from a sluggish, mindless undead, Patchwerk used his immense power to pulverize any adversary with a flurry of potent, powerful attacks.[1] When word of his existence first reached the ears of the Brotherhood, none believed the tales of an abomination with such immense speed and strength. Fewer still believed it when he fell the first time.

Patchwerk was called to Acherus to put down the Knights of the Ebon Blade's insurrection after they broke free of the Lich King's control.

During the Scourge resurgence, Patchwerk was one of the undead forces reanimated by Mawsworn kyrian in the Sanctum of Reanimation in Icecrown. Later, adventurers of both the Alliance and the Horde were sent by the Argent Crusade to kill him once again.

Defeating Patchwerk depends on sustaining heavy DPS and managing Hateful Strikes. Without sufficient damage, Patchwerk's enrage will eventually destroy the raid. Without dealing with Hatefuls, Patchwerk will rapidly kill the raid's melee; losing these members will likely put the rest of the raid in an impossible situation. However, dealing with these two concerns will make Patchwerk an easy fight.

Spoiler: A ZEBRA!

I've already talked a bit about Patchwork's weird approach to me. At the beginning of the game, they just started responding to my posts as if I were conftown, and there was no paranoia invested into whether what I was doing was protown or not. Everything seemed to be taken at face value. Additionally, patchwork seemed particularly invested in making sure I read them as town. When I pointed this out, the response was that 'people are supposed to be nice', meaning patch probably doesn't rely heavily on manipulation as town.

However, recently, that progression has taken a turn for the worse:

At page 9. Can we hammer n_m after coalitions pls they're really fucking annoying

A request to policy N_M, esp in response to delta's frustration with N_M, isn't particularly eyebrow raising. It is something scum would see as safe, but it's not really scummy on it's own.

Hot take, we should lim inside the co-alition

n_m this isn't a hot take this is what you're supposed to do if the winning coalition has scum in it

What is scummy is this. patchwork explicitly understands the theory of the setup. Note, this is before my mechposts, so patch knew that limming on coalition was optimal before making the post about policy-ing N_M (a post which had 0 joking vibes, by my reckoning) and yet...

n_m i can't really read, dunn's play pings me very subtly, kawaii doesn't act the same as they do in towngames

N_M is a coalition veto. So, patch has the positions of "Let's lim N_M", "Let's lim on Coalition" and "Let's ensure N_M is off Coalition".

understandable, but can you give like a rough list of the players from most wanted in the coalition to least? I'd like to get more opinions from you

me
delta/eira
nsg
keychain
bingle
kawaii
umlaut
dunnstral
n_m

note that this is a very rough approximation. some players havent' caught my attention so they just naturally have to be nearer the bottom, bingle i used to tr on vibes but now i'm a little more skeptical of, umlaut i literally do not remember being here at all and i know they've been posting it's just like they haven't been really there
same for kawaii they're just not doing anything
n_m's at the bottom because cringe, but their play feels more towny than not

This, in the wake of me being obviously not consensus town, is a shift from buddying me to buddying Keychain. Like, the exact same treatment, just shifted from one player to another.

If everyone makes a list like this, we can start totting up our collective coalition

Coalition

northsidegal
Eiralox
patchwork
Keychain
Not_Mafia

Compromise

Umlaut

Veto

Dunnstral
KawaiiKame
Bingle

yeah, this is basically my list but with kawaii and umlaut swapped

And note: I had 0 posts between these last 2, but on the basis of, as best I can tell, Keychain saying I've put in effort as scum before and N_M putting forth a coalition that included patchwork, I've moved to the top veto slot and the person patchwork wants to exclude most has become sheepworthy.

Collectively, this suggests to me that patchwork is building reads as a political tool to be townread, not as an actual attempt to share legitimate beliefs they hold. There is clearly an agenda driving this, imo.

[Bingle]

That took place immediately after the site upgrade where PTs were not appearing in egosearch

Hm. Further research shall be conducted immediately.

[Bingle]

Further research suggests N_M still better at town than scum, but also makes nsg tell less explicitly wrong. Particularly there was a Haunted Village game where he made 3 whole posts in scumchat.

[Bingle]

patchwork

Any inclination to engage with why I'm scumreading patch?

[Bingle]

including me/um as a pair doesn't follow from your comments about our interactions?

Also 436 self meta is acknowledged but I'm not just talking about mech but also what I think I called "generic helpfulness" - I didn't call it buddying because I view buddying as targeting a specific player but the generic helpfulness is more a way to look like you're ~progressing the game~ particularly to newer players

You/um doesn't seem likely, but I'm not taking it off the table as a viable possibility at the moment.

Can you point at any posts of mine that look like they're progressing the game but actually aren't?

[Bingle]

this angle

I assume you mean the specific angleshooty thing? Why not?

[Bingle]

patchwork

Any inclination to engage with why I'm scumreading patch?

No.

Why not?

[Bingle]

Bingle I feel like you just went to a parallel dimension, none of your recent posts make any sense. I was feeling better about you but that feeling has tanked and I'm considering moving you to veto

this angle

I assume you mean the specific angleshooty thing? Why not?

He posted in the wrong game and

immediately

clarified that, so this is a pointless question

As of the time of my research into N_M, he was not playing in any other games, so I assumed the post about deleting was nonsense trolling. I didn't bother checking, because checking would have spent more time than just asking the question.

patchwork

Any inclination to engage with why I'm scumreading patch?

No.

Why not?

What is this line of interrogation? you said yourself that eira is spewed town

First of all, attempting to engage someone about my read isn't necessarily an attempt to read them. It can also be an attempt to convince them of my read. Like when someone I think is town is voting to put someone I think is scum in the coalition, and I'm trying to convince them that's a bad idea. Is the premise here that me, thinking eiralox is wrongtown, should just... ignore that? Why?

including me/um as a pair doesn't follow from your comments about our interactions?

Also 436 self meta is acknowledged but I'm not just talking about mech but also what I think I called "generic helpfulness" - I didn't call it buddying because I view buddying as targeting a specific player but the generic helpfulness is more a way to look like you're ~progressing the game~ particularly to newer players

You/um doesn't seem likely, but I'm not taking it off the table as a viable possibility at the moment.

Can you point at any posts of mine that look like they're progressing the game but actually aren't?

Firstly I'm not going to convince you you're scum so continuing to make me rehash my reasons isn't going to do much, just looks like you're trying to make me second guess my read on you which is since you're already in my compromise bucket. Secondly in your indepth analysis of me/um interactions which covered this topic, how did you miss 398 where I give an example to him? if that doesn't suffice, all the posts I just quoted would also qualify
[/quote]

:thorface: I did not miss 398, as is imminently obvious in that I'm actively responding to it. In 398 you brought up a post that was specifically buddying Delta in an attempt to get him to dig deeper into his scumread of nsg and let me read him better. I was asking for posts where I was being 'generically helpful' in an attempt to get you to reevaluate your read on me, but also as a way of gauging your genuineness. There's this thing where I actually know my own alignment, so how you treat me is a thing that I can actually analyze with fewer variables to look at, and try to determine whether you are in fact reading me as scum because of my tone or whether you're faking your paranoia wrt me because, and this is me quoting you: "you replaced into my first scum game as my partner and won it for us viewtopic.php?t=72407, I'm sure there's a more recent time we've played together but that's the one that stuck in my brain".

Trying to convince you I'm town is not only something I absolutely should be doing as town, but an excellent way to figure out if you yourself are actually town, and the pushback over an attempt to engage is weird.

What do you think about my read on patch? Why are you so interested in specifically my thoughts about

your

buddy interactions, but haven't weighed in on any of the other ones? Presumably town you knows that all of those people aren't your buddy, so clearly asking about them is a waste of time, right?

[Bingle]

HEAL: Nsg's argument boiling down to "he's lurking so he's mafia" is bothering me and I'm trusting Bingle's analysis on pairings.

obvtown, we should all sheep this an put "Nsg's argument boiling down to "he's lurking so he's mafia" is bothering me and I'm trusting Bingle's analysis on pairings." in our coalitions.

[Bingle]

Spoiler: 470 again, but I fixed the tag

Bingle I feel like you just went to a parallel dimension, none of your recent posts make any sense. I was feeling better about you but that feeling has tanked and I'm considering moving you to veto

this angle

I assume you mean the specific angleshooty thing? Why not?

He posted in the wrong game and

immediately

clarified that, so this is a pointless question

As of the time of my research into N_M, he was not playing in any other games, so I assumed the post about deleting was nonsense trolling. I didn't bother checking, because checking would have spent more time than just asking the question.

patchwork

Any inclination to engage with why I'm scumreading patch?

No.

Why not?

What is this line of interrogation? you said yourself that eira is spewed town

First of all, attempting to engage someone about my read isn't necessarily an attempt to read them. It can also be an attempt to convince them of my read. Like when someone I think is town is voting to put someone I think is scum in the coalition, and I'm trying to convince them that's a bad idea. Is the premise here that me, thinking eiralox is wrongtown, should just... ignore that? Why?

including me/um as a pair doesn't follow from your comments about our interactions?

Also 436 self meta is acknowledged but I'm not just talking about mech but also what I think I called "generic helpfulness" - I didn't call it buddying because I view buddying as targeting a specific player but the generic helpfulness is more a way to look like you're ~progressing the game~ particularly to newer players

You/um doesn't seem likely, but I'm not taking it off the table as a viable possibility at the moment.

Can you point at any posts of mine that look like they're progressing the game but actually aren't?

Firstly I'm not going to convince you you're scum so continuing to make me rehash my reasons isn't going to do much, just looks like you're trying to make me second guess my read on you which is since you're already in my compromise bucket. Secondly in your indepth analysis of me/um interactions which covered this topic, how did you miss 398 where I give an example to him? if that doesn't suffice, all the posts I just quoted would also qualify

:thorface: I did not miss 398, as is imminently obvious in that I'm actively responding to it. In 398 you brought up a post that was specifically buddying Delta in an attempt to get him to dig deeper into his scumread of nsg and let me read him better. I was asking for posts where I was being 'generically helpful' in an attempt to get you to reevaluate your read on me, but also as a way of gauging your genuineness. There's this thing where I actually know my own alignment, so how you treat me is a thing that I can actually analyze with fewer variables to look at, and try to determine whether you are in fact reading me as scum because of my tone or whether you're faking your paranoia wrt me because, and this is me quoting you: "you replaced into my first scum game as my partner and won it for us viewtopic.php?t=72407, I'm sure there's a more recent time we've played together but that's the one that stuck in my brain".

Trying to convince you I'm town is not only something I absolutely should be doing as town, but an excellent way to figure out if you yourself are actually town, and the pushback over an attempt to engage is weird.

What do you think about my read on patch? Why are you so interested in specifically my thoughts about

your

buddy interactions, but haven't weighed in on any of the other ones? Presumably town you knows that all of those people aren't your buddy, so clearly asking about them is a waste of time, right?

[Bingle]

N_M is a coalition veto. So, patch has the positions of "Let's lim N_M", "Let's lim on Coalition" and "Let's ensure N_M is off Coalition".

..... what is the logic here
i want to make sure my coalition has zero scum in it and because i'm unsure of their alignment i don't want to have them in my coalition to play it safe

You see absolutely no issue with wanting to blindly policy eliminate someone because you're unsure of their alignment (Note: not scumreading) while knowing that if there is an elimination at all we should be eliminating on wagon? Pull the other one, it's got bells on.

This, in the wake of me being obviously not consensus town, is a shift from buddying me to buddying Keychain. Like, the exact same treatment, just shifted from one player to another.

i wasn't buddying either of you? also lol it's almost as if i can't reread the thread and change my mind

Actually, looking back, I have to give you this one. I think it's just a tonal thing that's making me default to you buddying people being the case.

I've moved to the top veto slot and the person patchwork wants to exclude most has become sheepworthy.

i'm not even sheeping? i'm just saying their reads align with my own lmao

Hm. I looked back again and it seems my impression here was wrong too. Other than N_M and myself, the two lists are actually fairly similar. Walk me through what changed your thoughts from exclude N_M to N_M in coalition in that timeframe.

[Bingle]

What Dunnstral says has merit, perhaps, overall scum would aim to have their buddy on for contingency's sake, but the above statement is far too strident and... confident? Weird? Something... for my tastes.

?

What Dunnstral said is just a mechanical truth.

If we have a coalition fail, and say

Bingle
Dunnstral
KawaiiKame
Umlaut

is the exclusion list, then mechanically none of those players can be scum together. He didn't say anything about a player being unable to put their buddy in their veto list.

[Bingle]

Like, literally he just said what I did 5 pages ago, where I pointed out the benefits of trying to put likely pairs on the same side of the divide.

[Bingle]

EARLIER i wanted to blindly policy-elim him, because i thought his play was detrimental. now i don't, because it's better and tends to ping me towards town a little.
i think you misunderstood what i said there

The issue isn't that you wanted to policy lim him. The issue is that you were advocating it despite knowing, specifically for this setup, why policy elims are an awful idea.

I may have been started on a patchwork tunnel erroneously. Is there anyone townreading them that wants to litigate their read?

[Bingle]

I agree, actually. I think that's actually doing what Key is accusing me of doing. I don't think you've mentioned, what's your reservation about Umlaut?

[Bingle]

I need some guidance on northsidegal, I'm not sure whether to trust or not to trust.

I'd been meaning to respond to this, as well.

Basically, nsg hasn't done a whole lot that's AI at this point, but I remember way back that her scum game wasn't all that impressive. She's playing the game the same way I tend to afaict: trying to stir shit until there's enough shit flying around to make people readable. As far as reads accuracy, she's earned the paragon title a couple times and tends to have one of the higher accuracies on site, so I think it's true that a lot of people just tend to townbin her D1 and hope she solves the game. I want her on the coalition specifically because if she is town scum will likely want to nightkill her early which will further restrict the lim pool in the case we don't win off of coalition.

I'm also playing under the assumption we aren't going to win through coalition, and if we do I'll be pleasantly surprised.

[Bingle]

Perhaps we should take advantage of that instead of putting all of our strategy into vibe checks before anybody has been eliminated?

Do you maybe want to weigh in on my partner analysis?

[Bingle]

For now I'm happy with my choice.

Yes, but I'm interested in your *reasons*. This isn't some kind of trick. If you see something about Umlaut I don't, I want to know what it is. If it's just vibes or whatever, I'm happy to hear that as well. If it's that you think me/umlaut are trying to powerwolf, then I'm significantly less happy, but at least I'll know I'm not missing something here.

[Bingle]

No offense taken. Minor frustration at a lack of engagement, but there's not a lot I can do to force that. Are there any reads you are interested in talking about?

[Bingle]

nonsense trolling

Oh, don't get me wrong, clodpole. I'm down for some nonsense trolling. But I think I can be forgiven for expecting it from you.

[Bingle]

^ Wrong game

@ lillith

please delete

[Bingle]

why are they an awful idea in this setup (i actually don't know)

Because... eliminating on coalition is empirically better than eliminating off coalition?

[Bingle]

I legitimately don't understand how you can know that it's better to lim on coalition and not know that policy limming off coalition is bad, and that seems to be what you're implying.

[Bingle]

but also can we like not talk about something dumb i suggested at page nine because i know better now lmao

The whole point was that I thought you knew better then. I'm starting to doubt that was the case though.

[Bingle]

Bingle: Idk maaan it really feels like trying to town it up way too much while not that concerned with getting the right coalition honestly.

I wish this was the first time I’d been accused of being too towny to be town.

[Bingle]

your reaction when i hurt umlaut worries me. your 'trust eira for today' comment reads like TMI. your certainty bout coalition failing feels like 'yeah the current trends need to change if i sound negative maybe that does trick' and also sorta stuff. for me content doesn't mean town, intentions do, rn it feels like you really want to be in coalition for your contributions but also sorta already angling for you'll target with the elim.

Eh. I’m fairly certain your proposed coalition fails based on two things: I think I’m is town and I think Dunn and Kame are not S/S. If I’m right on both of those there literally has to be scum in your coalition, fmpov. So yeah, your assessment of me being in a “things need to change” frame of mind is completely accurate, but your conclusion is just wrong.

I also am spending a lot of energy on who to lim after the coalition goes through because of that.

And I think the whole situation with N_M and delta did spew your slot as town.

[Bingle]

I still think you're town, Bingle, but I don't think I can sell that to anyone who doesn't already believe it. This has a better chance of actually passing.

No worries. I came into this game knowing that me actually being in the coalition was a snowball's chance in hell. Keychain literally invited me over nostalgia about my scumgame and as I mentioned earlier nsg has literally never had a game where she townread me.

It's a little funny to me that eir thinks I'd be partnered with you here, but I can see it from the perspective of someone who has never seen scum me operate.

As far as nsg/Dunn/kame nsg is by far the right choice imo, just from a stance of nightkill likelihood. They're all nullpiles, but that's not really avoidable at this point.

[Bingle]

HEAL: Umlaut, northsidegal, Keychain, Eiralox, N_M

I will compromise patch over Umlaut if such becomes necessary, but I don't have faith that either of these will actually work.

[Bingle]

for the record so far i am townreading you by play. your exclusion is mostly just me going with consensus,

Me too!

Also, the townread of NM didn’t come from nowhere, FWIW. I explained why it exists and it showed up pretty much immediately after NM started having reads that weren’t “x is scum because I say so”.

[Bingle]

We have less than four days remaining so at this point I'll take anything that doesn't contain kawaii or dunn to avoid day ending without elimination if coalition fails

Seconded

Eira not to pocket you please don’t take this as pocketing but I would follow you to the ends of the fucking earth. Literally your vibes are SO on point. You want me to vote someone? Sure. I’ll even help you scumcase them.

These are exactly what give me the bad vibes from patch, fwiw.

[Bingle]

As a thought experiment, eir, what do you think makes sense if I’m town?

[Bingle]

As a thought experiment, eir, what do you think makes sense if I’m town?

Specifically, all of your scumhunting seems to originate from the wrong assumption that I’m scum. It all seems to be about looking for my scum partner, which is something that absolutely cannot exist.

[Bingle]

Sure, dunn and kawaii decent scum picks, but heck this is a coalition game.

I explicitly agree that they're not scum together, and in fact think that if one is scum it's with someone who is fairly widely townread.

I'd be willing to swap to Dunn over patchwork in a pinch, or over nsg or Umlaut, but honestly that seems like the opposite direction of consensus. My major issue here is that you seem to be presuming my guilt first and then looking to build scumreads that fit that world. For the greater good it might be better to lim me first even with me off coalition to rip you out of this tunnel, because as it is I don't see you reevaluating and I think your tunnel single handedly loses us the game. (No offense to your skill, but I am kind of informed about my own alignment here.)

WRT the patchcase, I straight up admit a lot of it was bias and wrong, but I do seriously get major scum vibes from their posting.

[Bingle]

The first one is just expressing that I feel the same, Keychain said it before me
The second one is just true

How do I think you're tonally off? Because I read that post and think this is tonally off. The first is "let's just get the coalition over" which is something that needs to be done sure, but isn't in any way a town indicative thought. The second is "Hey, I'm not buddying you, but I'm going to sheep you." which while it could come from town could just as easily come from scum hiding behind a townie who is just wrong. I happen to know that Eir's entire worldview here is based on something that's just wrong.

Why do you think I should be townreading you? What have you done this game that scum you doesn't do?

[Bingle]

ah, yes, vibes
the most convincing argument a guy could ever have

Ah yes, discrediting the person reading you. The most convincing argument a guy could ever have.

See, I can throw bullshit shade at a wall too.

[Bingle]

In one last appeal to sanity, Eir, read my ISO. See that my goal here hasn't been to include a player on the coalition that I myself am not a part of, but rather to exclude ONE specific player. That's not how scum wins this setup. That's a player with a legitimate read, no matter how poorly explained.

[Bingle]

Saying 'your tunnel on me auto-loses this game' is one hell of a stretch by the way and will not ease my read on you. There are 9 players, 7 tomorrow. This game isn't 'hey everyone let's listen and believe everything eira says', I don't want it to be, so this statement is on the whole quite weird.

Is it? Say the coalition doesn't work (which I'm actually pretty happy about it working now, tbh, based on patch's response here). You want to eliminate umlaut because you think he's my partner. You want to eliminate nsg because you think she's my partner. How much of a stretch is it that scum will capitalize on you trying to eliminate anyone who even so much as looks like they might be my partner for free miseliminations?

[Bingle]

I'm not sure what you want from me.

Explicitly, I want you in a place where you're willing to think about what the world looks like if I'm town, and I don't think that happens without my elimination if this coalition does fail. I'll take a guaranteed miselim over multiple likely ones.

[Bingle]

Anyway, I've gotta go get a part fabricated, so I'll be back later.

[Bingle]

i'm kind of tempted to hammer the coalition and watch it fail

Do you have any original ideas you might be able to share?

[Bingle]

No, sorry, I'm scum sheeping Eira. So no original ideas for you

You do realize that if you're town this does absolutely nothing to help me fix my read on you, right? I'd imagine as town you'd be interested in being read correctly, particularly with the stated concern that the coalition I'm supporting is going to fail.

[Bingle]

Why aren't you telling me to vote kawaii or n_m today, or patch?

I'd obviously prefer patch. I'm willing to consider nsg, now that you have talked a bit about reasons other than 'being partnered with bingle' to suspect her. I agree that her absence here is troubling. I'd vaguely prefer letting BoP solve her, but I think it's likely a theoretical KeyTown eats the bullet if we lim her and that solves another slot I'm less confident on. Kawaii is both a low information lim and also not likely to be on the coalition, so a failed coalition means that's a bad lim all around.

578 does make me feel a lot better that you're not going to blindly lim on the basis of "maybe they're paired with Bingle", though, so I'm willing to drop that for now.

[Bingle]

Here is my proposal: We all unvote the current coalition and do the opposite of where we are headed right now.

Not_Mafia, patchwork, Dunnstral, Bingle, KawaiiKame coalition. Exclude Eiralox, northsidegal, Keychain. Umlaut.

Given that the mafia ideal is one off one on this seems like an awful idea even if you assume mafia have gotten exactly what they want.

[Bingle]

I’d hammer Dunn over either nsg or umlaut atp, fwiw.

[Bingle]

The current coalition will definitely fail because nobody is trying to change it. And if it were all town mafia would lose instantly, so they'd be up in arms about it.

I feel like this is not true though? Like, eir is trying to change it. Patch is sheeping eir. You/nsg/Kawaii have all just been gone. The only excluded player who *could* be trying to change it, isn't and is here is me and I don't think its a reasonable ask to get me on a coalition at this point.

[Bingle]

I’d hammer Dunn over either nsg or umlaut atp, fwiw.

To be clear, I don't mean that I prefer Dunn to either of them, but that I would hammer a coalition that had Dunn instead of either of them.

[Bingle]

We should probably elim from within the coalition yeah, I think that's generally been agreed on as correct hasn't it?

Explicitly yes. Mathematically it's 3/10 or 1/8, we go for the 30%.

[Bingle]

A coalition of Eiralox, Keychain, northsidegal, Not_Mafia, and Umlaut has been locked in (voted by Keychain, Not_Mafia, northsidegal, Umlaut, and Bingle).

The coalition is not all town so Day 1 continues.

NSG/Dunn
NSG/Patchwork
NSG/Kawaii
NSG/Key
Dunn/Umlaut
Dunn/Key
Umlaut/Kawaii
Umlaut/Key

I think I vaguely prefer the nsg lim over the keychain lim, looking at this.

[Bingle]

Eh, no reason not to vote atp.

VOTE: nsg

[Bingle]

Bingle voting northsidegal by quoting those two posts after shooting me down all day for wanting to vote umlaut/nsg convinces me Not_Mafia is onto something here: not keychain/dunnstral but maybe keychain/bingle lol.

Your tunnel is immensely frustrating and your inability to actually read my posts makes me want to just vote myself and go V/LA. Congrats. You’ve successfully killed my desire to play this game.

You don’t see any difference between “I don’t want to eliminate a player solely on the back of associations tying them to me” and being willing to eliminate the same player when you actually give decent reasons? Yeah. GLHF. I might be around before deadline.

[Bingle]

I’ll be here to compromise on key in ~2 hours if we can’t get an nsg lim.

[Bingle]

Do you think nsg's absence is AI?

I remember it being scum indicative for her, yeah.

[Bingle]

Out of the passed coalition I'd say the people I;'d be most comfortable with an elim is either keychain or nsg. Bingle jumping to vote nsg is a little sketchy to me but I'll have to look at that later because I've been doing a lot of work all day and my brain's kinda fried.
Does d1 start over, or do we continue with two days? Because Holy Shit i do not have time to do a comprehensive reread with analysis Fuck

Ohhhh fuck yeah it does not restart time

This has been a lovely trip to the theater.

[Bingle]

I would like to point out that I intentionally lurk for two days and literally nothing productive happens.

[Bingle]

VOTE: Umlaut

You are entirely useless.

[Bingle]

Damn Bingle is disappointed in us

I’ll be here to compromise on key in ~2 hours if we can’t get an nsg lim.

I'm going out shortly and might not be able to check in over the next few hours so will leave this for you/dunn/north just in case I'm eliminated while I'm gone

Spoiler: only open once keychain is dead, I'm trusting you!

thanks for accepting my out-of-the-blue invitation to join, this is/was a fun game and good way to get back into mafia! I might even play another after this, who knows

I’ve got two games I’m prepping to run when tm settles down a bit. A complicated meme setup that might be a mad scientist contender and a dance game mutation. I’d be happy to have you in either. Not sure how often I’m going to actually play games this year though.

[Bingle]

Do you want to quickly discuss nsg vs keychain

My biggest concern wrt keychain is tonal, but I think it's completely reasonable that's a result of excitement to play again after a long hiatus. NSG used to be a player who struggled hard with town activity as scum, and her absence jives with that. It's possible she's just absent, but I think she'd be more likely to force herself to play with the pride she has in her towngame than her scumgame.

Also, both umlaut and key have had posts today where they put forward a lot of effort that wasn't entirely necessary. They could have just sat back and let town lurk itself to oblivion, but they didn't, and I think that earns townpoints.

[Bingle]

Oh yeah I saw this earlier and thought it was weird but forgot to respond until now:

It isn't me, if I were scum I wouldn't have bothered trying to get myself into the coalition, I would have boosted my partner

you were trying to get yourself into the coalition? when? It didn't appear to me that you cared but this post suggests you were paying pretty close attention, and especially gives the impression you were doing exactly what you say you weren't, in trying to get yourself in there.

It's more that if umlaut is scum pocketing me, his play is probably to get me to help elim north today then eliminate

me

tomorrow since I'm in a much more precarious position than him. so yeah super hope he's not doing that and if he is it'll make me feel better later if I at least acknowledged the possibility!

Particularly for Keychain, the first post is Keychain risking alienating N_M more to investigate his alignment. I don't think scum keychain does this, because I don't think it has good odds of actually helping her survive. This comes across more as actually caring that she's right on N_M than shopping for an elimination.

The second one is very self aware in a way that scum doesn't want to appear. Like, scum keychain absolutely has the thought that even if she wins this 1v1 she's probably in another 1v1 tomorrow, but does scum keychain actually EXPRESS that thought? It's shitty optics, and she'd know that. /inb4 WIFOM of that's exactly why she does it, but it just doesn't seem like a scum play to me.

[Bingle]

Those are both fair interpretations, but not how I'm reading the situation.

I'm here, btw.

[Bingle]

We have 47 minutes. If key hits e-1 I'll hammer. If she doesn't will you do the same on nsg?

[Bingle]

assuming patch's nsg vote counts, which it should

Better safe than sorry though.

[Bingle]

I hate the wagon composition and how it built up, I hope I’m wrong but just to be safe

I'm the top poster by a wide margin and I actively left the game for 48 hours. I don't think there was a chance for a wagon that wasn't shit, tbh.

If I die, patch is scum.

[Bingle]

I was town and 100% blame this loss on the NSG elim

I was town and I blame this loss 100% on the scumteam. If the stupid scumteam didn't stupid exist I never would have lost this stupid game. Stupid.

gg all, and thanks to lilith for all of the wonderful creatures I imagined were in the vote counts.