Election! | GAME OVER

[GuiltyLion]

declare: treasurer

[GuiltyLion]

hmm alright these posts feel better than that first one, I don't wanna continue bludgeoning anymore. I was TRing Alisae too prior to today, so I feel you on that, but I throw my reads in the trash in the face of mech evidence

[GuiltyLion]

which is prob what Bingle wants to check so at some point, maybe tomorrow when I'm on a plane again, I'll try to find a "late game guilty" sample

[GuiltyLion]

Bingle I think what you're missing is that I've been getting progressively more and more frustrated with the combo of this PL either not agreeing with me on things or being notably dead/absent

like the main reason I've been more forward today is because it feels like if I don't this game is going to be the same as D2 and D3 and I am actually tired of compromising, it has not worked

also I would dispute that I'm not still being analytical, I've been engaging with sheep and furtive and even thought I caught you on a slip briefly

also also if you're referring to my points about Alisae when you say "semantics", it's absolutely not a "distraction", it's an argument about how Alisae is playing for public opinion rather than playing to speak e's truth. If you're referring to something else then I'd like to know what you mean

[GuiltyLion]

At this point, the pt is pretty much useless anyway, except as a way to confuse people outside of the pt and to give GL ample opportunity to find things that aren’t actually scum slips.

And what is the point of this comment? I could understand it as good natured ribbing if you think I'm town and are just making a joke at me, but if you think I'm scum it feels like shading me over something that's non-indicative at all, if not straight up town-indicative?

[GuiltyLion]

also just saying it's a "distraction" is kind of a joke itself, like what am I distracting from? What are you bringing to the table that were all supposed to be listening and paying attention to instead?

[GuiltyLion]

anyways I gotta do wedding pt 2 now so Ima give the thread space and be off for the rest of the day probably

and clearly me doing volume posting isn't getting results I want either so I'm gonna put up after I shut up and reread the game and try to present some Grand Theories of what happened D1 and D2 that we haven't revisited in light of all the townflips

enjoy your weekend errbody

[GuiltyLion]

Even from a position where you believe that the failed doc is a 100% case, the thing you should be arguing there is that there was a failed doc. Trying to get Ali limmed on the back of "Ali is trying to live" is not a good look at all. I'm not sure if that's an ineffective argument tell or an overblown performance which is the whole point behind asking for the meta.

ok, but the issue is - nobody except scum really knows what happened or whether there's a failed doc. I think Alisae lying is clearly the most likely explanation, it seems that opinion is not widely shared, how do I go about convincing people it's the most likely explanation? I could do the math, ask people to assign probabilities to P(scum have a role blocker), P(scum role blocker is active on N3) - (does it need funding? is it X-shot? would they have used it on N1 or N2?), and P(scum correctly guessed Alisae was doc), and then do the actual math to show the compounding unlikelihood once you take all those things together. but historically I've found people don't like math arguments and get annoyed at me for making them. I've tried just yelling about it a bit and was told that's "bad vibes". I don't know what other kind of argument you'd be expecting me to make about how likely it is that there's a failed doc, it's kind of a thing you either believe or you don't, so the next best thing IMO is to start highlighting the scumminess in Alisae's play.

on that point, it's a bit more than just Alisae is trying to live, it's that Alisae's

play

is designed to live rather than find or push scum. Why does Alisae scumread me? Has Alisae actually cased me anywhere or attempted to engage with players who seem to be townreading me? Do you think Alisae would be scumreading me if I came into today townreading em and pushing some other random slot?

Further,

how

Is Alisae trying to engage with me or push eis view of the game? E's trying to imply that the opening post states that an ability to negate a doc protect exists when it doesn't actually state that (3918, 3920, 3928). Note how Alisae shifts the argument to some bullshit about "you think this is a FTC setup" which is just intrinsically dishonest when the limited treasury and fact that we

elect a player of unknown alignment to be cop

immediately makes it not a FTC setup. And then there's the "Alisae is not speaking to or about me in the way that town speaks about their scumreads" point which I feel I'm either not explaining well or it's not landing with people - to try to summarize it again there should be an evident contrast between how I engage with Alisae where I'm either actually laying out my thinking as to why e is scum or

providing opportunities to explain emself via pointed questions

(3906, 3991, 4091) - like, these posts aren't just rhetorical, I'd generally expect town to be able to elucidate why they think it's "brain off" to assume the failed doc means doc is likely to be scum, or what they would expect town!me to do and how that differs from what I'm doing, or why they're making a post like 4089. But Alisae doesn't engage with these fronts, instead I'm just met with meaningless antagonism like "you're a wolf, so" (4016), "I'm letting your posts speak for yourself" (4086), "killing GL would be poggers" (4264) and any attempt to engage at a deeper level is just ignored. That is how scum plays when they want to throw dirt on the loud voice against them and win the charisma game to the rest of the PL.

[GuiltyLion]

tbh I ran for treasurer explicitly so killing furtive wouldn't be off the table today if Alisae does towntell or we decide to let em be cop (which I'm against, but history shows I do not have a ton of sway this game). If we wind up electing furtive treasure that will say a lot itself especially if I wind up limmed instead, so just vote who genuinely think is more likely to be town, I'm not gonna give a speech

[GuiltyLion]

on the meta point Bingle - this is not exactly what you asked for, but I think it's actually a compelling example. Some years back I played a newbie game where scum!Titus quick hammered the claimed doctor on D1. In my mind, that's an objective scum claim, so I entered D2 pushing Titus hard, and was met with a bunch of newbies not understanding how scummy Titus was. I got riled up and pissed off and town eliminated me instead.

here's my opening post on D2, and I encourage you to read through the thread and watch what happens when I'm met with pushback, how frustrated I get and how much I desperately keep trying to appeal to people about how obviously scum Titus is and why she needs to go. It's the same thing happening here.

[GuiltyLion]

I also make the exact same callout about how scum!Titus starts immediately arguing and discrediting ME simply for scumreading her, instead of trying to find scum

the parallels are good here

[GuiltyLion]

If anything, I’d expect town you to be more interested in unpacking what aliscum would mean than trying to push through an elimination you clearly expected to go through without any assistance.

oh and I want to respond to this cause it deserves a point - I think I would get to there if I trusted that everyone agreed on Aliscum, but the sense that I'm getting is that this is very much not Consensus, so my primary drive right now is to lead and push the thread towards going towards my preferred elimination for once and keeping the spotlight on my main suspect

you're not wrong that I expected Aliscum to be a more common sentiment than it seems to be, but that's not scum!indicative at all, that's just how I feel about any time a player claims a night action that doesn't align with what happens, the level 0 and most likely world is that the player lied, and I'm genuinely surprised people are so willing to entertain alternate ideas where Alisae is town without any real evidence for them and without any townvibes at all from Alisae today.

it meant a lot to me when sheep said he agreed Alisae's posts were performative cause I feel like I'm on such an island trying to call attention to it and being met with either complete silence, being told I'm wrong or bad vibes. like if anything it almost makes me nervous that I

am

wrong and scum is WKing Alisae, but Alisae emself doesn't seem suspicious at all about people defending em (completely ignored my post when I tried to ask Alisae what e thought of sheep defending em) and so if Alisae is actually town and isn't even remotely worried about situations where I'm town then this game is already lost because I truly cannot and do not want to see a world where Alisae is not immediately flipped next if I'm flipped today

[GuiltyLion]

YOU TOWNREAD ME MORE BUT WANT TO PUT GL IN CHARGE OF OUR NIGHT ACTIONS

what do you think is the risk if scum is treasurer? we know how it works now and the current state of the treasury is public knowledge. whoever is treasurer is going to be leashed and we can even hash it out in the main thread instead of the council thread as others have stated. Someone whose actions go against the consensus plan of the town would be scumclaiming.

...right?

[GuiltyLion]

I spent the day celebrating the news that my cousin is officially in remission from what we expected to be terminal cancer and didn’t get to this. Sorry.

also no need for apologies here, that is awesome news, congratulations to your cousin! I hope it was a grand celebration!

[GuiltyLion]

kinda like if a scum doc just docs no one to let the cop die and then fights to worm out of the elimination the next day? wouldn't that be exactly what a scum doc would do?

[GuiltyLion]

The probability of scum being able to actively fuck with this result if Ali is town is actually pretty high, imo. Which leads back to: would Ali, who was willing to risk eir slot to kill a cop fake the result failing instead of saying "I thought scum would assume the cop was protected so I used a watcher or whatever on AD. Bingle visited him and made the kill."

Which leads us back to: who is the scumteam if Ali is scum here?

alright so I've skimmed up to be caught up and I have a Lot Of Thoughts but I am too exhausted right now to actually do them justice and type them all out

I disagree with you somewhat on the mechanics portion of this post and will go into that more later but I see your point of view and really appreciate you writing it out it resolves a lot of paranoia/worry I had about you and I feel where you're coming from

I have A Thought on the scum team but I want to reread some parts of the game before truly committing to it but I will say this - I don't really believe furtive is scum at all, as frustrated as I am with him I think he's town. And the thought I am subsequently landing on is that all the gamestate weirdness I've been struggling with in the town!furtive world, makes a lot more sense if LLD is mafia that I've been misreading the whole game. There's a few things rolling around in my brain about her play and the interactions with Alisae and my push on em today that don't feel right, and it's still possible I'm just paranoid/stupid and she's town, but a wolf!LLD could be a missing puzzle piece that fits a lot of things into place

[GuiltyLion]

I was fully funded
I targeted Andante
what the FUCK

confirm you were funded 100 dollars, a full funding.

namely I was thinking about this post earlier and maybe I'm way off here but... I kinda don't understand why LLD would need to ask this, when I think about it. Alisae already said e was fully funded. If LLD is town and Alisae is scum, the main benefit is to prevent scum!Alisae from changing e's story later, but I dunno I am kinda feeling a vibe that it's a S/S interaction. I don't think I can properly articulate exactly why at the moment cause sleepy brain, but I'll be around tomorrow and I'll try to unpack a lot more

[GuiltyLion]

What, as a townie, is your first reaction? Mine is always "do things by the book". If someone and I are involved in a situation where they have information where they could choose to lie or tell the truth (1v1 me or go a different angle) I will always force them to immediately claim it for the sake of not allowing that to be an option for them to try.

But it feels like a scumpush when you go from "nah LLD's town" to "maybe this "weird" interaction LLD had was scum/scum?" when it's a fucking normal by the books interaction.

That's exactly the thing though, it just feels lifeless and by the books specifically because you know town!LLD would do it, and what I don't get from it is a sense of any impetus of figuring out what happened beyond that, which makes asking Alisae to confirm feel weird. Alisae already said e was fully funded, you made em confirm it explicitly, then e does and your response is just "well simple explanation is you're scum but that would be scum claiming" and then you just... don't do anything.

like if you're town and you think Alisae is town, some bullshit must have happened. why are you not expressing that you think bullshit happened? and if you think Alisae is scum, why are you letting

me

take all the heat for pushing em while you're sitting around not helping push em? and if you think FURTIVE is scum, why are you letting him rail on me and push nonsense in the thread, why are you not pushing him, why again are you letting the thread be dominated by me pushing Alisae?

[GuiltyLion]

Of note, this is the SECOND time today in which you have been pushed into a corner and come out trying to switch some shit up that makes no sense.

A fake slip on Bingle and calling me scum for an interaction that scum NEVER NEED TO HAVE.

All while in the same breath going "maybe I'm paranoid" "maybe I'm wrong". Well, you are wrong, and your point makes no fucking sense. But it feels like a scumpush when you go from "nah LLD's town" to "maybe this "weird" interaction LLD had was scum/scum?" when it's a fucking normal by the books interaction.

It feels to me like you're flailing and looking for suspects, for ANYTHING you can do to survive.

this is also a weird reaction

- implying it was a maliciously "fake" slip on Bingle when I clearly just didn't see the first time he said "oh shit button". if he hadn't said that, it would have certainly been a slip, because at the time I thought you were the only person who had used that term and you had only used it in a thread Bingle didn't have access to. and why would scum me make any of that up?

- also, how was I "pushed in a corner" when I called out the Bingle slip to begin with?

- further, do you really think scum!me is like, "how do I survive here? Oh, I know, I'll step on town!LLD's toes! surely that will work out well for me" like what??

[GuiltyLion]

She's pretty night-and-day from her scumplay here

can you elaborate on this? I'm not really super familiar with LLD's scum play but I have the impression that she is an extremely skilled player. it seems like your argument is ultimately "LLD is passive here and scum!LLD isn't passive" but I don't know if a single game where scum!LLD wasn't passive is enough for me to be convinced she can't be scum here

[GuiltyLion]

I don't really believe furtive is scum at all, as frustrated as I am with him I think he's town.

What's convinced you?

the main thing is I don't think Alisae/furtive read S/S. Alisae was hard defending furtive in the council thread before today and if e was planning on risking himself by failing to doc the cop, I feel like that's meant to set up furtive as a fall guy if Alisae flips moreso than go hard at bat for his buddy.

the other thing is I don't believe furtive is giving any real inclination of knowing that I am town or that Alisae is scum, like his play is almost so outwardly anti-town in that world that I don't think he'd be as confident behaving the way he is if he was mafia, instead I am getting a sense that he

truly

thinks I am suspicious and is letting that drive his reads and his behavior. I don't think he knows that I'm town.

I still want to reread D1/D2 with this in mind and look at how furtive/Datisi interacted but if furtive is scum it feels like he and Alisae are going all-in a minute too early and I don't really see the strategy or logic there

if I had mod confirmed info that LLD is town I'd be back to suspicious of furtive again for all the VCA stuff namely the way in which he seems unlimmable, but yesterday I kept thinking it seems weirder that LLD has this strong furtive scumread and is still just detached from the thread and not pushing it whereas furtive is here all the time constantly advocating for his views and sparring with me

[GuiltyLion]

like I guess another way of framing my POV right now, going back to Bingle's question about scum team in scum!Ali world

- if furtive is a buddy, then he is fighting hard for thread control while Alisae kinda just sits back, and this seems backwards when Alisae would be the slot designated to possibly sacrifice today

- whereas if furtive is town, then whoever Alisae's mafia buddies are seem content to let me fight with him and it hasn't felt to me like anyone else has remotely felt inclined to get their hands dirty or get involved here - other than Bingle. which brings me to LLD and how I don't vibe with the way she apparently scumreads furtive but isn't pushing it or jumping into my arguments with him, and how I don't actually have a sense of what she thinks happened last night or what Alisae's alignment is, and that's a big red flag

[GuiltyLion]

EBWOP - whereas if furtive is town, then whoever Alisae's mafia buddies are seem content to let me fight with

FURTIVE*

sentence above was unclear

[GuiltyLion]

I wouldn't call me anti-town before we have any flips

that was assuming scum!Alisae

if Alisae is town and you are town I wouldn't call you anti-town but I'd also say the game is really fucked

[GuiltyLion]

I literally searched the words "oh shit" in Bingle's ISO. It took me 30 seconds to do. Why didn't you do that before trying to pin Bingle down for that? That's what's got me fucked up about you.

I actually figured out what happened here, I initially cmd+F'd "shit" and started going through the results but there were a bunch so I then added "shit button" and got only the latter post

what I missed was he called it the "oh shit fund errbody button" the first time

I'm definitely scrambling and being overall more hot-takey/behind the ball this game than I would like, maybe I should just shut up and finally reread before posting anymore I guess

I'm not sure I fully understand why you think scum!you wouldn't have a stilted interaction with Alisae over the night shenanigans but I guess my main questions for you are these - 1) do you still think furtive is scum, and 2) why does it feel like you're in a more passive/react-to-things state rather than a push-what-you-want state?

if you disagree with the premise of 2 then that's also an answer but I think most of all I just want to find town that I can work with and it feels like the people who are more likely town are either not doing a whole lot or are scumreading me and pushing back on my reads and it's making the game feel really disjointed, and I think my pivot to being suspicious of you is because I don't like how the game looks if you're town here, like the ONLY thing that would feel fitting is furtive scum

p-edit: ok well you actually addressed both my questions lol but I'll leave this up for posterity

I guess the thing is like... if you wanna lim furtive, I ran against him so that we could possibly do that, everyone instead framed it like "we can't elect GL treasurer we might lim him!", and you haven't said a whole lot to argue for limming furtive. I kinda reject the whole notion of an Alisae/GL dichotomy today in the first place other than I strongly believe Alisae is scum and prefer limming em by a wide margin over anyone else here

[GuiltyLion]

hmmmm ok

I think your posts on this page make sense

do you think Alisae/furtive reads like S-S? I mostly have a hang up around why would Alisae defend furtive so hard in the council D3 thread overnight if Alisae knows e's going to be soft-guiltied right afterwards

and why then would furtive work so hard to discredit me if he knows Alisae flips maf and I flip green

it just feels desperate and I feel like if that's what's going on then the third buddy must have very little standing like sheep or STD or Sleepy and scum is just trying to play in the short term and delay the POE by a day

[GuiltyLion]

I don't want you to do things that will lead to IRL suffering for you it's just a game and your explanation makes sense

[GuiltyLion]

funny timing that as soon as a new player replaces in Alisae now feels the urgency to come in with all this fake solving

alisae - do you have any doubts at all about your wolfread on me? because if you are town this game is 100% lost and I don't see you thinking about that at all. no doubts about the fact that you townread me this entire game up until I scumread you today? no doubts about the fact that my volume is >>> most of the PL and historically every scum game I've ever played? no doubts about the fact that if furtive is town I don't even have to do anything today to begin with I can just come in and plop a vote on furtive and push that and not even put myself on anybody's radar?

like, your scumread on me seems 100% born out of survival and if you are town I would expect at least a fraction of concern about what happens if town!GL because my goal today is to ensure that you die next even if you successfully get a lim on me first

[GuiltyLion]

Why would I be doubting my wolfread on you when you're posting junk like this

because I"ve posted like an INFINITE amount of other content today that you've just consistently ignored

so I can't be town who thinks you're a wolf capitalizing on the moment

you can but you're not behaving like one, at all
and if I'm flipped today you are going to have to speak to this

[GuiltyLion]

you aren't even wolf-hunting outside of me today until literally the second a new player comes in you need to buddy up to, then you start posting a team solve

[GuiltyLion]

because I"ve posted like an INFINITE amount of other content today that you've just consistently ignored

everything you posted is a wolfpost because you're a wolf

seems like a bunch of other players disagree with you (Sleepy, UNOwen, sheep) so why didn't you engage with them on that when they posted as much yesterday

why does it always feel like your goal is to antagonize me rather than work with people you townread and actually case me

[GuiltyLion]

alisae - do you have any doubts at all about your wolfread on me? because if you are town this game is 100% lost and I don't see you thinking about that at all. no doubts about the fact that you townread me this entire game up until I scumread you today? no doubts about the fact that my volume is >>> most of the PL and historically every scum game I've ever played? no doubts about the fact that if furtive is town I don't even have to do anything today to begin with I can just come in and plop a vote on furtive and push that and not even put myself on anybody's radar?

this isn't encouraging a "shitstorm" it's an honest question

so your answer is no? you'd bet the game on me being mafia?

[GuiltyLion]

Like inaction is action here and it's not my duty to show my alignment to you, it's my duty to kill wolves.

it's kind of your duty to show your alignment when you were supposed to protect the cop and you didn't, instead the first thing you did was OMGUS me for DARING to suspect you after your night action didn't happen, and only just now nearly a week IRL into the day phase you have started posting something that resembles real #content, only after a new player entered the game who nobody knows how they're going to read/evaluate things

p-edit: well, I'm not a wolf, so...

[GuiltyLion]

in any case I don't think anything I just posted is actually good or useful, I'm just frustrated

I am actually going to make good on what I've been saying for a few days and reread things

[GuiltyLion]

my duty is to use my position as the person most likely to come under fire by wolves to find wolves and kill them.

I will say this though, truly genuinely

if you are town and you genuinely think that the way you've done this today was correct or successful, you are wrong. and that is because you immediately got so defensive and so antagonistic at the very first person who called you out, to the point where I can no longer feel like I can comfortably or safely re-evaluate on you because your reaction has been so bad

I have said multiple times that if you are town, I would be FAR more suspicious of anyone giving you too much slack, or #hedgeposting around if they think you might be town or not. from an uniformed POV you look really bad here. like objectively. but in my experience, scum are tremendously awkward around soft/incorrect 'guilties' and every time I've tried to show you someone who seems to be giving you a lot of room for benefit of the doubt, you've just ignored me or posted thumbs up emojis. maybe I should have been a little less aggro in pushing you initially, if you're town I'll take that as a lesson from this game, but you cannot act like you haven't been wildly reactionary to a situation where your slot looks bad in a way that has created a situation where we are now enmeshed to the point where I cannot see you as town, and further my flip (if I go first) will condemn you. that's not doing your "duty", that's creating a losing gamestate.

[GuiltyLion]

alright well, I tried

[GuiltyLion]

I would be FAR more suspicious of anyone giving you too much slack

"Ya Ali, don't be sus of me! Be sus of anyone who's doing what I'm not doing!"

I mean, yeah. I'm town

[GuiltyLion]

Are you saying there is no wolf motivation in pushing me today?

no, I'm not saying that. I'm just saying if you really, truly, earnestly believe you are doing your "duty" to find wolves, you've failed at it here and I'm trying to appeal to you in a fucking honest way that if you're town then this game is currently lost and I guess I was hoping I could somehow get you to maybe see or consider that

the way you immediately just continued to snark at me was unpleasant and I'm not going to get baited by it further, I'll cop to the fact that my posts at the start of this exchange were reactive and unproductive but the last few I'm trying really hard to just be regulated and offer a final olive branch

[GuiltyLion]

I don't even care about being treasurer, elect furtive, I don't think there's momentum to flip him today and I'm still not even sure whether he's scum

p-edit: Alisae, can you maybe tell me what in your posts today I'm supposed to townread? Like put yourselves in my shoes, assume for a second I am town - what in your reactions to my post or the things you've said today should have indicated to me that you are town?

[GuiltyLion]

what's your argument for Ali scum that doesn't involve the "she didn't use her doctor" thing because i mean, fuck all scum needed was a 1 shot strongman kill as a power and boom we're here.

frankly most of it really truly is that I don't believe it's anywhere near as likely that scum have a strongman or RBer as it is Alisae is just a wolf. like that's just how my brain sees these situations, the simple explanation with the most immediate evidence is one I trust, for me it's a big hurdle to go "well what if scum also have a way to counter a doc". I also don't like how Alisae tried to source the opening post as if that definitively proved the existence of counterplay when all it says is the most generic text about "abilities" to "effect" the game

secondary is the way Alisae then reacted to me was so immediately defensive and tunneled that it locked me into the scumread. like there was little to no meaningful engagement elsewhere, there was no doubt or concern about me possibly being town and engaging with me on the level, I generally feel like Alisae's seen enough of my towngames e should be seeing me and e had me as town up until today, but instead I get this snarky and hostile reaction. and while I've definitely played a role in creating that in terms of our direct engagement I keep just hoping there'd be

something

to townread, even if it's in the form of Alisae engaging with other players, even in the form of casing or talking

about

me to other players.

I do it owe to myself and the game to reread, I'm a little anxious I'm going to go into it biased/tunneled when I reread Datisi but yeah I can try to post just a well thought out, well regulated, probably way too long Theory of the Game at some point in the next couple days cause I feel like the past few RL days I've just been spinning my wheels and not actually getting people on my side or accomplishing anything useful and it's cause I've been playing lazy/sloppy/emotionally

[GuiltyLion]

even winding back to the whole "performative" thing which Alisae brought up again just now and definitely escalated everything at daystart

if you're town and you post 3883 and 3884, "WHAT THE FUCK" in all caps, how can you be surprised if someone thinks you're playing it up and faking your emotions? and that's not to say Alisae definitively was or wasn't faking their emotions, like town can be performative, town can be manipulative, town can yell in all caps, I'm definitely a bit performative and manipulative as town, but it's the way e then

denies

it, like 3989, "tries to sell the picture that I'm just some crazy maniac screaming their heads off to other players.", I did not make Alisae enter the thread and post "WHAT THE FUCK" or "I'M ANGRY" (3896)! like e did that, not me!

maybe this is personality and not alignment indicative but if I got fake guilted or my slot looked compromised as a result of night actions, I would

understand

that people are going to suspect me. even knowing I was framed, I think I personally would be a lot more aware that I'm under a microscope and some people are going to think I'm insincere. I'm not trying to tone police or say there's a correct reaction, I'm really not, my issue is more that I feel it's entirely reasonable to see a guilty looking person say "WHAT THE FUCK" and think it feels fake, but Alisae thinks my response is wolf-indicative. like would it be townier for me to just be like, "gosh Alisae, you seem so surprised! you must be innocent!" like is that the thought process there?

also, this whole thing reminded me of furtive's bullshit with "stop capsing" on D1. furtive, why haven't you had any issues with Alisae's caps posting today?

[GuiltyLion]

this was my ballot

Sherriff - Sheepsaysmeep
Mayor - Bingle
Council Member - Unowen
Trash Collector - LLD
Board of Election - STD

I have a heavy work day today but I'll be around tonight (like after 7 pm PST) to play

Bingle/LLD, are there any concerns about sharing all the budgetary info in the main thread?

[GuiltyLion]

frankly most of it really truly is that I don't believe it's anywhere near as likely that scum have a strongman or RBer as it is Alisae is just a wolf. like that's just how my brain sees these situations, the simple explanation with the most immediate evidence is one I trust, for me it's a big hurdle to go

"well what if scum also have a way to counter a doc"

. I also don't like how Alisae tried to source the opening post as if that definitively proved the existence of counterplay when all it says is the most generic text about "abilities" to "effect" the game

Why? I'm assuming you read my bigpost about why I think the existence of such a role is very likely, so is there something about it that you disagree with?

yeah I've been meaning to do that post a just response, don't have a ton of time but I'll just vomit some quick thoughts now

but the tl;dr is that your post is an argument for "If Ali is town, then the odds scum interfered is high" and that's a definite given because we already assume Alisae is telling the truth in that world, like I don't disagree with that aspect of your argument at all.

However I don't think that in itself is an argument for the likelihood of there being a way to interfere last night in general - you touched on this by saying FTC+extra power is broken so we know there must be counterplay, but I think the fact that we don't know the cop's alignment and we don't know the treasurer's alignment and we don't know the doc's alignment (AND it's a one-shot doc for each role) is enough to counter a FTC setup already. maybe I'm misunderstanding or not aware of the EV there but to me that feels intuitive, we have 2 one-shot doc abilities to protect a cop ability that all have to go to town every night and receive funding from town, it's simply not analogous to FTC.

in my mind the more relevant question is "given the cop was not docced, what are the odds Alisae is scum that didn't use their ability the way e said e would" and to me that is substantially high likelihood. It's not "what are the odds scum have the ability to interfere

if

Alisae is town", it's "what are the odds Alisae is town

and

scum have the abilities to interfere"

and to your other post:

I'm having a hard time reconciling the narrative that scum is willing to trade one-for-one with someone who isn't full confirmed and only might enter the day with a relevant result.

you're making a mistake of assuming scum necessarily specifically chose Alisae to be 'guilted' whereas we as a town elected Alisae and then LLD as an individual

funded

Alisae. assuming Aliscum, that forces the teams hand to decide whether to kill Andante and compromise Alisae's slot, or to allow Andante to live. And it seems kinda obviously valuable to prevent the town from seeing Andante's cop result (and Andante herself was clearly in town meta) and prevent us from getting a chain going, like throughout this game I've heard over and over again arguments for how valuable a cop result is, why are you now assuming scum wouldn't be willing to risk one of their own to take an opportunity to kill the cop when it's handed to them?

[GuiltyLion]

I'm having a hard time reconciling the narrative that scum is willing to trade one-for-one with

someone who isn't full confirmed and only might enter the day with a relevant result.

also Bingle maybe I'm missing something but aren't you yourself acknowledging exactly why this

isn't

a super town sided FTC setup that requires scum power counterplay yourself here?

like either

1) Andante being a cop with a result is valuable to town, and scum would be willing to gamble one of their own to kill her,
or
2) it's not

that

valuable, and the setup is roughly balanced without scum powers like RB or strongman

but it seems like you're wanting to have it both ways here

[GuiltyLion]

will definitely re-evaluate and talk furtive with you later LLD I think if Alisae is town furtive scum equity is super high

Alisae have you ever considered that I'm just town lol

[GuiltyLion]

@Alisae - I still really really want to finally do the promised reread before committing to anything but

IT's probably just Bingle/Sheep/Furtive.

this solve actually feels pretty good to me imo

Bingle is the tough one because a lot of his opinions feel really grounded and town-motivated but if we are truly actually T-T the kinda fluffy non-committing from him feels scummy to me

like he says he wants to partner hunt outside of us today but it feels like all he's doing is arguing with me and virtually every other player doesn't receive any scrutiny from him at all

[GuiltyLion]

I liked some of his posts too I'm not sold on it

ultimately the one liner would be I don't see what he's really doing to help town win

but yeah I'm not effort posting right now so that will come later

[GuiltyLion]

Pretty sure you said you townread me...

most of that was because I don't see you as partnered with Alisae

[GuiltyLion]

but if Alisae is TOWN then all the shading me and cageyness of furtive's own Ali read from the start of the day has a very different look

[GuiltyLion]

ugh every time Bingle comes back and posts posts like 4646 I'm like no he can't be scum

I totally forgot about when furtive initially didn't understand the slip argument

anyway I got home and ate dinner, gonna do a tiny bit of house cleaning and smoke a j and then I plan to spend the next 2-3 hours rereading and trying to do a full reset. I am probably not gonna live tweet it but I'll be around to talk and I'll highlight whatever I find that stands out strongly

[GuiltyLion]

114 gives me the vibe of trying to look smart in the early game but just not really succeeding. i also found it really weird to be asking so much about why someone would run for cop (not necessarily scummy in itself because the explanation for that is plausible), and i think there's obvious value in asking why someone is stuck on something seemingly unimportant or unproductive. so i do empathize with what she's asking.

ok I know I said I wasn't going to live tweet it I will try to resist the urge but this post actually makes me think town!Datisi, I don't know if scum!Datisi thinks to shade me so hard with the "look smart and not really succeeding" like that'd be too cold if he knew for a fact I am town lol

[GuiltyLion]

I am remembering how much I disliked Bingle's early game


the AD townread in 225 feels really contrived especially now that I read this knowing ActionDan was in fact town

it just so strongly gives me the vibe of when scum gets caught making a pockety townread and so they try really hard to justify it with stuff that sounds plausible and complicated to demonstrate a solvey mind

I think my posts come off that way sometimes in how I write them so I'm sympathetic it to it but the underlying arguments here are a real stretch. the first paragraph assumes scum!AD would feel compelled to nightkill LD on N1 (wot) and also ignores that LLD declared treasurer on page 1 almost immediately so ActionDan couldn't make much noise about it anyways

[GuiltyLion]

sorry I realize my sentence is unclear

> the first paragraph assumes scum!AD would feel compelled to nightkill LD on N1 (wot)

here I'm not saying that LLD isn't worthy of an N1 kill or that it would be a bad choice for scum to make, rather I'm questioning the fact that Bingle basically treats it as a given that scum!AD would

definitely

want to kill LLD on N1. there's no way to know what AD's priorities when deciding the NK on N1 will be, maybe he'll be in really good standing with LLD and someone else will be a threat, maybe he'd just always kill cop or JOAT on N1 but definitely not trying to force somebody to be there. it's just such a weirdly specific reason to say AD is probably not scum with LLD

[GuiltyLion]

I wonder if Bingle's push on Nono which was the first thing I liked from him was actually a bus, and he was able to write truth into it and that was why I liked it

I wonder if the team is like furtive+Bingle+STD cause I still kinda don't think sheep is all that scummy other than his prolonged absences

running for sheriff against Alisae felt like a really protown move to do regardless of Alisae's alignment - if he's scum and wins sheriff he has to explain why he didn't die and come up with a result that narrows the limpool or goes for a 1-1

maybe a good move if he wants to fake a guilty at ELO but I don't know if scum!sheep has enough bravery or town standing to really do that?

gonna keep thinking on this

[GuiltyLion]

k no prob.

btw are you reluctant to townread me for meta reasons?

me?

We've played 1 game together before and you were quite an easy townread for me. I haven't seen that yet from you this game

Yeah I thought so. I think it's because I was super tryharding and wordy but I've decided to not play like that anymore because it was burning me out. Consider that my wordcount became much lower halfway through that game. Right now I'm trying to survive longer. I guess that's selfish, but meh... I haven't survived super long yet so it's an attractive challenge. Also I felt like I was confusing people when I was being super detailed with my reasoning.

Understandable. Have a nice day

this is really weird how easily furtive just accepts this response from Bl00db0t lol

also I forgot Bingle's initial take on Nono was "it's either awkward or scum but I can't tell" (SleepyKrew also I feel looks a lot townier to me now in how he calls this out) and that type of waffling but scumreading feels very in line with how scum may treat a buddy

[GuiltyLion]

also in hindsight the way Pooky/LLD so naturally bond and vibe with each other in the early game further resolves paranoia about LLD and I think it provides good context to why Pooky basically just let her shoot wherever

damn I really should actually clear my mind and reread games more often

[GuiltyLion]

the phase is about to end and we don't have declarations from:
- furtiveglance
- bingle
- nono

i think it would be good if one of you ran against cakez

on the other hand, is this really scum calling out all three buddies for not declaring in one post

very audacious move if so but I recently lost to scum!Ausuka pulling the same thing in a game where she simultaneously called out both buddies as mandatory flips in a super casual non-agenda-y way

[GuiltyLion]

oh my gosh I have not ever done this before, excellent suggestion thank you

[GuiltyLion]

lol fun fact I forgot I had 200ppp on and had a thought I wanted to post and started turbo scrolling for a solid 10 seconds before I realized my mistake

I realized I never shared treasury info - we had a decent windfall from taxes last night, we brought in $125. So even with paying back a $60 loan we could have $65 to play with and maybe take out another small loan. my thinking is we just fund the cop tonight and no one else, if sheep is town he's useful to flip and get out of the POE without wasting a lim if scum kills him, and if he lives he can investigate Bingle or whoever we're least sure of in the limpool

[GuiltyLion]

ok my stamina to post Catchup Takes is fading but rest assured I am continuing to read and think about the game

I am progressively liking a furtive+Bingle+STD solve more and more though I have yet to find a single thing that doesn't feel like it fits

I am least sure about STD it's possible it could be sheep still but I'm remembering how awkward Nono was early game and furtive/Bingle feel like they're maneuvering around it a lot more than bloodb0t, and I also think furtive locking blood town feels more likely WK or pocket than defending a buddy

[GuiltyLion]

Vote: Meowth

This is an attrocious reads list. On all notes. But MOST OF ALL.

this is literally a scum claim. "done nothing of note" Lie. "NAI as either alignment, like Pooky. ... TOWN FOR NOW?"

Kill this with fire, please.

I don't want to vote ingle or today

I want to vote UNOwen or meowth

I don't think meowth's recent list is particularly bad, although I did scumread him earlier.

It's hard to see UNOwen and meowth as aligned at the moment, and I prefer voting UNOwen.

it's actually wild that furtive claims he killed meowth and not LLD lmfao

w i l d

[rereading Pooky's posts is giving me a lil of his spirit]

[GuiltyLion]

yeah this game is so much more straightforward with being centered on scum!furtive

[GuiltyLion]

I realized I never shared treasury info - we had a decent windfall from taxes last night, we brought in $125. So even with paying back a $60 loan we could have $65 to play with and maybe take out another small loan. my thinking is we just fund the cop tonight and no one else, if sheep is town he's useful to flip and get out of the POE without wasting a lim if scum kills him, and if he lives he can investigate Bingle or whoever we're least sure of in the limpool

And $125 is still pretty low. We should be expecting $16.75 per player, which gives us an expectation of ~$150 with 9 alive. Paying back the $60 loan should be $90, should it not?

My understanding is it's per townie, not per player. Scum aren't paying taxes

I think you're right on the second point though, the role pm just said we are $60 in debt, I'll confirm whether that means we need to pay $90

[GuiltyLion]

I like alisae better now but I still think that line of reasoning holds true

Why?

I don't trust the rapid deescalation from Alisae any more than the rapid escalation.
On board with executing furtive today though.

did you have thoughts on my feeling that Alisae/furtive aren't aligned?

I think what I'm a little stuck on is I want to scumread them each individually but having a hard time convincing myself this is how they play together

[GuiltyLion]

I'm getting cold feet on limming furtive from his posts recently today

I also do not like that kdowns post about "Alisae piggybacking on reads", that felt very shady and scummy

did we actually have consensus on funding plan? I know LLD suggested I WIFOM about it and Bingle suggested take full loan and mostly fund all the roles. I don't wanna be confused and do something that people might later think was scum-motivated or against the plan, so I wanna be explicit about what we agree on, even if it's explicitly choosing to WIFOM about a few options

I'm also not sure I understand Bingle math in 4699. We have $125, I could take out a $200 loan for $325. funding 80/80/70 puts us at 230, what do I do with the extra $5 after we pay $90 to debt? and how does funding Mayor $80 mean $100 success rate?

[GuiltyLion]

sorry 100%* success rate not $100 success rate lol

[GuiltyLion]

sorry y'all I had a hectic weekend and been scared to think about this game

I'm gonna mull it over a bit today and submit funding this afternoon or evening and actually do stuff

[GuiltyLion]

but yeah I think I'm ultimately on board with furtive lim

so will get to this ASAP later today

we're launching (or trying to) a big think at work today so once I'm through the aftermath of that I will fund and vote

[GuiltyLion]

Hello GL what made you decide you’re good with a furtive lim after your previous cold feet?

the main thing is that ultimately I decided to trust my reread of D1 (in which Datisi felt a lot townier than I had previously remembered) and also to trust LLD's scumread

furtive's effort to leave a solve felt generally townie to me but I don't think it's unfakeable, when I pressed myself on whether it can't come from scum I didn't have a compelling reason to say it can't

[GuiltyLion]

alright, I submitted the funding, my apologies that took so long

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: furtiveglance

[GuiltyLion]

I also do not like that kdowns post about "Alisae piggybacking on reads", that felt very shady and scummy

Please explain to me how that is the case? I was pointing out one of several things that Alisae has done that has given me the biggest ick in reading them.
Alisae is literally trying to get information without giving any information and has just come off as just spewing out fluff.

my main thing is - do you think Alisae has avoided giving information the entire rest of this day phase though? or this game in general?

and why do you assume Alisae would "piggyback" off of any reads given instead of like, argue with them, or do eis own thing. just a fundamentally uncharitable way to look at a perfectly normal and reasonable thing Alisae is doing

[GuiltyLion]

uhhh I'm not totally a fan of the speed hammer, weren't you waiting for kdowns to do stuff @Alisae

[GuiltyLion]

oh right I guess he did give that readslist, fair enough

[GuiltyLion]

sorry for fighting with ya so much Alisae

thanks for being patient with me

[GuiltyLion]

me too

[GuiltyLion]

usually in my experience doctor is about making yourself so mislimmable that you get run up on D1 to the point where you are forced to claim and get instantly NK'd

[GuiltyLion]

I'm about to go to bed, will think about mech in the morning but the good news is we're only $45 in debt

[GuiltyLion]

ok so:

generally I agree with LLD that the sequence of events last night makes her likely town but I also think UNOwen's paranoia also reads genuine. he can't really lie about the treasury or not fund anybody (assuming we hit scum today) without outing himself so I don't think it matters too much if he's treasurer, unless I am not thinking of something.

sheep dying is kinda noteworthy to me because I feel like he was the most easy miselim slot remaining, was it really necessary for scum to sabotage the treasury AND kill him last night? I don't know if I have a working explanation as to why scum made that shot, like they were clearly afraid of a cop result but why? what possible cop check would be most damaging to them?

I feel like once my claims about the budget are confirmed and if we flip scum today then LLD/I become likely NK targets, so I want to run for either Mayor or Tracker as Bingle suggested. I'll probably declare Mayor tonight unless anyone has a convincing reason not to

[GuiltyLion]

yes, I'd like to hear your theory

I am currently thinking maybe there's a world where scum!UNOwen has a plan to lie about the treasury and push me for a game winning lim today, but I think if he tries that it's risky because you at least know that I'm not lying about the sabotage and if the two of us can convince whoever else is town to lim scum elsewhere then it just outs him tomorrow, when he'd probably be the deepest wolf remaining in that world

[GuiltyLion]

I don't hate that theory, I was kinda thinking through the same... my main hesitation is it feels a little scumsided to have both RB -and- sabotage abilities that are unknown to town, but I definitely agree that's the most compelling explanation as to why there was so much effort to deny town a cop result last night. and I guess the sabotage isn't that strong because the affected players are informed that it happened so it's not really an effective way to frame anybody

and I also still think Datisi's play feels pretty town now knowing a lot of other players alignments, it's maybe stupid and a small thing but if scum!Datisi really had both the insight and the moxie to call me "trying to be smart but failing" while knowing I'm town I really would be super impressed

kdowns feels like best odds of scum to me at this point by POE and how little that slot has offered collectively across its inhabitants, I am thinking he might actually be the safest lim today. if we're assuming town!Alisae then I think the remaining town is either UNOwen or Bingle but frankly I could see it being either of them

[GuiltyLion]

is the Ali townread based on eir play as well or just that it makes sense with the sheep kill + would be "too easy" as you said for Ali to be scum

it's kind of both.

I just got done with a game where Ali was town and couldn't find me as town and quick eliminated me for no good reason and the vibes I get here are the same vibes I got in that game too.

But ali has been notoriously hard to read due to how chaotic e is, so using the situational logic and mech stuff and analyzing AROUND Ali is what makes me more confident than just how my eye test tells me.

And mechanically and play wise... I don't think Ali sets eirself up in a position as a doctor to get boned like this, Ali's the type to want to carry a game from my recolection. Combine this with the powers finally coming out fo the shell and being used so we know they do exist, plus a sheep kill plus Furtive being town it's...

It just all adds up.

I feel all of this, one other thing too is that if Alisae is scum then I really do not know what e's partners are doing. like they'd be setting em up mechanically to be outed but then hard defending em the whole time? There was

so

much resistance to Alisae yesterday, even among players that weren't explicitly arguing with me there was just no traction on my push, and I think in a world where Alisae is scum and the fall person there'd be a buddy maneuvering to try to look as Town As Possible from e's flip.

on the powers, I had one other thought, maybe they require $$ to use and so scum had to get elected to positions and get funding before they could start using them. That would assuage my worries about balance a bit, though it's all just speculation and probably not super useful to think about

[GuiltyLion]

Declare Mayor

[GuiltyLion]

yeah I was thinking tracker again makes sense

[GuiltyLion]

I then considered who this makes look good: GL. If he is scum this is a pretty good way of going "Why would I bother sabotaging the budget when I already had control of it" despite the fact that any unreasonable funding choice would naturally come under suspicion.

I get that this is a plausible thing to be worried about but here's my question to you

if I were scum who planned on killing sheep why would I not also fund him and throw the town further into debt

like the only reason I'd do that is specifically to try to grab towncred, but it puts scum team at a pretty big disadvantage in that we can fund roles tonight. there'd be no cost to scum me to giving sheep 110, sabotaging the budget, then burying sheep with gold - I think the fact that town is only $45 in debt today is pro-town enough to outweigh paranoia around 'what if scum!GL is just trying to look good'

[GuiltyLion]

@GL, what caused your major turnaround from Ali defscum overnight to Aliprobablytown today?

also was this not clear on the past page? the sheep kill is really weird if Aliscum

I'd like to understand whether you have an alternate explanation

why did scum go through so much effort to negate a town cop result that a lot of us probably wouldn't have even trusted to begin with

why was town!sheep a threat enough to scum to be worth killing when he was being scumread by almost everybody

like the main reason I didn't fund sheep was because I felt even if he had a guilty I wouldn't be able to trust it, so funding him felt like it wouldn't actually accomplish anything

[GuiltyLion]

I realize my last post is kind of implicit, the point is the

best

explanation for the sheep kill in my mind is if Alisae is town, scum want to bank the game on miseliminating em today, and they wanted to prevent any chance of sheep getting a town!Alisae result

[GuiltyLion]

also I'm probably getting ahead of myself here and I'll wait to see what LLD says but if she tracked Alisae and got the result that Alisae went nowhere, I'd consider that a soft inno in this gamestate. If I'm a scum team with Alisae I send Alisae to do any night kills at this point since e is the most suspected member and already soft mech-guiltied already

[GuiltyLion]

I know last night I was thinking track should go on a deepwolf but I think I was just wrong / not thinking through it, especially with town!sheep there'd be no reason for wolf!UNOwen or wolf!SK or whoever to do anything

also to be clear Bingle I don't think the sabotage like inherently makes you suspect or anything, I think there's a town explanation for your reasoning, realistically I should treat it as NAI overall. I could see a world where the team is exactly kdowns/SK/UNOwen

[GuiltyLion]

ballot submitted, I will do stuff here later today

[GuiltyLion]

gahhh sorry for my absence but I am here now and ready to play a lil bit on lunch break, and then definitely gonna give this game some attention tonight

[GuiltyLion]

I'm about to go to bed, will think about mech in the morning but the good news is we're only $45 in debt

For the briefest of moments I thought GuiltyLion was indeed a stupid liar face but then I remembered the evil concept of interest.

My current plan is to behave like a responsible treasurer and bankrupt the town. Will confirm choices later tonight or tomorrow. Probably tomorrow.

can you clarify what the role PM said here? mine said we were "$60 in debt" when I had to pay $90

[GuiltyLion]

GuiltyLion when the sabotage happened did you get a chance to reallocate the budget?

no, basically I submitted funding, once night start happened I got a PM that said the budget was sabotaged by 25%, and that we were forced to still pay the loan in full, and that LLD would receive the remaining $49, and be informed that sabotage had occurred. I am not sure what would have happened if I funded other players too. I assume once the debt was paid off the rest would have been allocated proportionally, but that's conjecture on my part

[GuiltyLion]

hm

tbh I kind of wonder if that's just Shea either making a mistake with my role PM or deciding to word it differently after I had to ask to clarify

I think I mentioned yesterDay that I was gonna ask what the debt was

[GuiltyLion]

I think you're right on the second point though, the role pm just said we are $60 in debt, I'll confirm whether that means we need to pay $90

yeah, here

[GuiltyLion]

GL, I want to give you space to do more posting and work with you to try and come to a bit of a thought built consensus by the end of today since one of us is dying tonight almost assuredly, but I'm also feeling the drain of this day going on too long and worry about players WIM come tomorrow if we drag this out too long and people give even less of a shit.

Do you have time tonight or tomorrow to talk and work shit out with me?

hey yeah, sorry this week has just been hectic for me personally, tbh tomorrow would be the day I am most free, I'm going to a hockey game with a buddy tonight, but I respect not wanting people's WIM to crash it already feels pretty low right now

when are you going to be around? I'm gonna be busy like 5:30-10:00 PST today but I'll try to be active/present before then and late tonight if I can pull it off this time. last night got away from me

[GuiltyLion]

If Ali and gl are both scum, GL coming in assuming the guilty on his buddy and then slowly letting me talk him around when the lim doesn’t happen makes a lot of sense, as does the protection offered today.

this presumes that scum!me would know that you are going to talk me down though, right? like I would have no way of knowing ahead of time whether town would let me dunk on Ali or not, and frankly if I was ok with or actively planning to bus Ali yesterDay why would I not still be okay with that now?

I'm not sure what to make of you coming at me like this, I feel like if I were town in your position I'd be a lot more paranoid of UNOwen but you don't seem worried about that at all?

also, what's your view on Ali in general, it's not really clear to me from this post. Like your argument for me being scum is written predicated on Ali being scum, but you don't seem super certain that you think Ali is scum

[GuiltyLion]

yeah, I am around! I still want to skim through D2/D3 thinking Ali town and check to see if things make sense, my memory of early/mid game is a bit too fuzzy for me feeling comfortable with a total solve, but yeah happy to chat in real time

I'm going to the Kraken game tonight, Vegas Golden Knights are in town and my buddy is a fan so we're gonna go and root against each other should be a blast

[GuiltyLion]

lmfao

let's go to a kraken game some time ye?

I'd be down I've only been to a few but I live basically right down the street from Climate Pledge so I really should go more often!

Anyway, I have been looking over earlier day interactions and I feel pretty comfortable with Ali town because of the Xof wagon.

I just don't see Ali positioning eirself around that wagon the way e did if e is scum.

Also, I know people have been like "actually Datisi looks town on a review" and I'm kind of... unable to tell that? Datisi looks scummy to me sort of no matter what in early days, especially coming off of HotD. But I DO think that Datisi going for Cop day 1 after HotD with me IN THE GAME AGAIN is... it's too bold, tbh.

for me I felt Datisi's treatment of me feels more genuinely suspicious and like he wanted to figure me out moreso than something aimed to get me to townread him. I think scum!Tisi is usually a bit more pocket-y towards me than he was here - that's not infallible I have mistakenly townread Datisi before but especially rereading with a lot of the fluff removed I think he truly did not know my alignment.

Is the Ali read based on your understanding of Ali as a player or a more general rule of how scum like to play?

Right now I'm trying to decide who among Bingle/SK/UNowen is scum

what do you think of Bingle coming in here and throwing a lot of shade around some people like Ali, uno, me? I feel like the easy explanation is that's scum trying to keep their options open but I also kinda think he would be more consistent about it if he has an agenda? I already indicated some level of uncertainty between him and UNowen and he chose to say he's not sure that I'm town, feels risky if he's scum

[GuiltyLion]

It is a little weird, though, because I've said all game I townread SK and townread UNOwen and Bingle I've had a scumread on. So why would scum bingle be selling to me? You'd think he'd be selling to You and killing me, since the inertia of getting me to kill someone who isn't him tomorrow is harder.

yeah, this is what I was getting at, I feel like I would be a natural ally especially if he kills you tonight, but instead he's choosing to preemptively make me defensive and suspicious of him. in that world his audience would be one of UNOwen or SleepyKrew I guess?

one other thing I'm thinking about, I don't know what make of Bingle being cop or declaring for it so quickly, if my JK gets funded then I feel like Bingle would be the natural target but that just screws us over if he is town and funded cop. and even if it prevents a NK Bingle could always claim to be targeted. I kinda wish we had put someone like Ali in there instead but Ali also declared super early and probably didn't predict that e'd be as townread

[GuiltyLion]

I think if scum!Bingle he must be assuming he needs to win a fight against me tomorrow

[GuiltyLion]

also overall I think if Alisae is town then Bingle talking me down from that is fairly town-indicative, it'd be much easier to let me push Ali for a free miselim and then possibly spin that back onto me, especially since we had furtive/SleepyKrew (regardless of his alignment) scumreading me already

maybe he was convinced I'd carry it through into today, but I feel like miseliminating furtive yesterday actually kinda hurt scum in a weird way when furtive was probably never going to endgame

[GuiltyLion]

yeah I guess I should use a hypothetically funded JK outside of Bingle and just hope that he's town, right

if Bingle is scum it gives him a free kill but if he's funded he'd have to fake a result anyways and if he's not funded he can take that up with UNOwen

[GuiltyLion]

personally I'm not there with you yet at 100% scum on Bingle - his early game is actually what makes me scumread him the most but if he's scum he's really good at faking what feels like natural levels of paranoia/solviness right now

UNOwen has been a bit detached from the game in a certain way that gives me nagging doubts but I still put a lot of stock into meowth/UNO not feeling S/S, maybe I need to formally draft that out overnight to share my thoughts on it and revisit that assumption I've had all game

SK I'm most likely on scum in the three, mostly because I still don't think there's a ton there to townread in terms of his actual impact on the game. I remember you gave reasons for townreading him a while back but I can't find those for some reason in quick ISO skim, will try to reread more closely after this to go back and find what I'm thinking of

I think I need to do that exercise where I look through the three pairs of UNO/Bingle, Bingle/SK, UNO/SK and find what seems least likely and kill outside of that, so that'll be my goal ASAP. but my gun to head solve would be Bingle/SK/kdowns at the moment

[GuiltyLion]

idk the fact that I feel like I can find compelling reasons to TR both UNOwen and Bingle is freaking me out a bit

part of me is wondering if the game could look like this if we've falsely cleared Alisae but kdowns is just also scum

the sheep kill is the main thing keeping me from scumreading Alisae I don't really like how it feels like e's just kinda chilling right now

[GuiltyLion]

I guess there's also the soft inno last night, right? like LLD you definitely tracked Alisae who went nowhere?

[GuiltyLion]

ok yeah I'll try to put Alisae paranoia to bed

[GuiltyLion]

I don't wanna wait around again GLLLLLLLLLLLLL

is there anything else you wanna talk or can I vote KDowns and like, go pick up my prescription

we can vote kdowns cause I can do any solving I wanna do in the council thread and if it's wrong then this game is definitely gg at this point

[GuiltyLion]

oh not

[GuiltyLion]

maaaan :/

[GuiltyLion]

wowowow I was FINESSED

very well played by the scum team, we got destroyed. I think especially y'all blocked together super well, this game is a lesson for me in how good mafia buddies take care of eachother.

I never should have let go of that Alisae push I was so confident in it and then everyone chipped me down :[ that's my big regret from this game, maybe we could have ultimately got LLD at the end cause I was sometimes wondering why she was still alive, but... damn. sheep kill was really smart and well played too. just a dominant scum performance gg well done y'all

[GuiltyLion]

can't wait to read the scum PT

[GuiltyLion]

glad to see i was able to pocket guiltylion from the spec thread, tho

can we be town together again next time?!? stop rolling scum!!

[GuiltyLion]

LLD I hope you know I will never feel truly safe townreading you again after this

this was like the one game where I was most sure you were town

[GuiltyLion]

although Bingle deserves props too for continuously incepting that in me

[GuiltyLion]

I was fully funded
I targeted Andante
what the FUCK

confirm you were funded 100 dollars, a full funding.

namely I was thinking about this post earlier and maybe I'm way off here but... I kinda don't understand why LLD would need to ask this, when I think about it. Alisae already said e was fully funded. If LLD is town and Alisae is scum, the main benefit is to prevent scum!Alisae from changing e's story later, but I dunno I am kinda feeling a vibe that it's a S/S interaction. I don't think I can properly articulate exactly why at the moment cause sleepy brain, but I'll be around tomorrow and I'll try to unpack a lot more

agh I'm rereading my ISO and seeing where I went wrong and I was so so close here and then I just derailed

[GuiltyLion]

oh yeah, thank you for modding Shea! the setup was unique and a lot of fun, even with scum rolling us on it hahaha. I enjoyed playing a lot and appreciate all the work you put in to making this game happen