Micro 1073: Purgatory - Game Over!

[Vanderscamp]

FIRST

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Oh, no!

VOTE: Arko


Pretty sure I was first, lim all liars

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I'm excited for this set, seems fun.

I feel it has to be town-sided, it's hard to see two mafia making it to hell before heaven, but I could be wrong.

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I'll put arko as a very mild town for interest, I agree nothing that's been done so far is super towny

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But very mild town is still top of the list!

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grim: fwiw, i expect the rvs vote to change, and i dont realistically think ull die from my vote, but it did elicit a reaction from u and that’s the thing i wanted from u.

Strong read that OE and Arko are not scum together, I don't think you say "I don't think you'll die from my vote" if your plan is to bus.

[Vanderscamp]

grim: i’m calling it’s e-2 so scum cant quickhammer. i dont like

ur phrasing of “its technically NAI”

like it implies that there’s somehow a chance its townie in this setup to setup spec.

realistically, the only setup spec that actually matters is

if it’s better to townhunt or scumhunt the whole game

bc trying to switch between both seems like a bit much.

also, ur reaction to my e-2 vote is interesting and i wanna think abt it.

VOTE: Oclaxian Empire For

nitpicking

and

creating a false dichotomy

.

Personally I think we should scumhunt on days we will be sending people to hell and townhunt on days we will be sending people to heaven, and that people's preferences on this don't really matter all that much. I say take the approach that works best for you.

I also thought Arko's 'reaction' was another NAI thing, and your approach here seems a bit forced.

I can see OE believing their case as town but I definitely agree with you that I don't agree at all with it.

[Vanderscamp]

u clearly havent played w/ us then, bc that’s a major thing. precisely saying what u mean is important and we will nitpick smth bc its imprecise. thats nai.

I mean, it's not imprecise, you're just reading an implication into it.

Is this really a thing you do, for real?
Because in general I find scum to be waaaaay more precise with their language compared to town.

[Vanderscamp]

Spoiler:

grim: i’m calling it’s e-2 so scum cant quickhammer. i dont like

ur phrasing of “its technically NAI”

like it implies that there’s somehow a chance its townie in this setup to setup spec.

realistically, the only setup spec that actually matters is

if it’s better to townhunt or scumhunt the whole game

bc trying to switch between both seems like a bit much.

also, ur reaction to my e-2 vote is interesting and i wanna think abt it.

VOTE: Oclaxian Empire For

nitpicking

and

creating a false dichotomy

.

Personally I think we should scumhunt on days we will be sending people to hell and townhunt on days we will be sending people to heaven, and that people's preferences on this don't really matter all that much. I say take the approach that works best for you.

I also thought Arko's 'reaction' was another NAI thing, and your approach here seems a bit forced.

^ is town.

I TL Bella for this. Stating a read early on, and I, too, understand.

I think I understand Ranger's perspective that BloodB0t could be distancing, too. Idk my read on Blood overall though. I considered Oclaxian Empire + Arko scum together, seems like page 3 could be playful ribbing between teammates. Ironically I think Ranger could also be scum looking for an angle, partnered with one or more of {BloodB0t, Oclaxian Empire, Arko}.

The only actual read I have is the Bella townlean, the rest are scenarios I'm musing but I have no take on their relative likelihood.

You think page 3 sounded like playful ribbing?

I didn't get that impression at all.

[Vanderscamp]

I would often townread OE for the level of passion because I feel like it's usually towny to be worked up like this, but what OE is saying is just so weird to me that I'm not going to.
This is probably my top scumread because I can definitely see this being scum theatre, but I'm not very confident.

[Vanderscamp]

Also, not that it really matters, but meta is IMO absolutely a good way to read people, because people don't play the same as both alignments, no matter how much they try to.

[Vanderscamp]

Also, not that it really matters, but meta is IMO absolutely a good way to read people, because people don't play the same as both alignments, no matter how much they try to.

The main thing with our meta that I can tell you, is I ignore my partners and post less as scum. That’s why meta is dogshit to read from, because that’s something you can manipulate. People can easily manipulate their meta, by looking at how they play and try to change it. Does that mean they will, 100% of the time, do so successfully? No, but that means meta is unreliable as a method, because players can recognize their own meta and manipulate it.

Can =/= will, and in fact in this case almost definitely means doesn't, because if they did, it wouldn't be their meta.

[Vanderscamp]

Yeah, I'm just not feeling an ox vote for whatever reason.

I really really don't like what they're choosing to focus on but I've been down this road many times with this line of logic with mixed results and it just doesn't feel right here.

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(I guess that’s the challenge of a hydra account) so not sure why arko would be singled out for it.

Also technically not a hydra in the typical sense - its more akin to a meatspace hydra. We’re a system, meaning there’s multiple people in our head, who all have are their own unique identity.

I kinda instinctually know what Grim’s going at when posting, but not 100% certain, but we normally have notes for each other to read and play off of.

If you're one person why do you have a main account?

[Vanderscamp]

grim: fwiw, i expect the rvs vote to change, and i dont realistically think ull die from my vote, but it did elicit a reaction from u and that’s the thing i wanted from u.

Strong read that OE and Arko are not scum together, I don't think you say "I don't think you'll die from my vote" if your plan is to bus.

Tell me more?

Spoiler:

grim: i’m calling it’s e-2 so scum cant quickhammer. i dont like

ur phrasing of “its technically NAI”

like it implies that there’s somehow a chance its townie in this setup to setup spec.

realistically, the only setup spec that actually matters is

if it’s better to townhunt or scumhunt the whole game

bc trying to switch between both seems like a bit much.

also, ur reaction to my e-2 vote is interesting and i wanna think abt it.

VOTE: Oclaxian Empire For

nitpicking

and

creating a false dichotomy

.

Personally I think we should scumhunt on days we will be sending people to hell and townhunt on days we will be sending people to heaven, and that people's preferences on this don't really matter all that much. I say take the approach that works best for you.

I also thought Arko's 'reaction' was another NAI thing, and your approach here seems a bit forced.

^ is town.

I TL Bella for this. Stating a read early on, and I, too, understand.

I think I understand Ranger's perspective that BloodB0t could be distancing, too. Idk my read on Blood overall though. I considered Oclaxian Empire + Arko scum together, seems like page 3 could be playful ribbing between teammates. Ironically I think Ranger could also be scum looking for an angle, partnered with one or more of {BloodB0t, Oclaxian Empire, Arko}.

The only actual read I have is the Bella townlean, the rest are scenarios I'm musing but I have no take on their relative likelihood.

You think page 3 sounded like playful ribbing?

I didn't get that impression at all.

Sorry, I originally skimmed page 3 but on a more careful reread "playful ribbing" is not the right description.

Yeah whoops. Initially I had looked at a few posts and my brain decided that the rest of the interaction must have been more of the same.

Do you still want me to tell you more?

I think my first post summed up my point and I think their interactions since then where Ox seemed very annoyed just strengthen my read, and I think it's fairly clear.

[Vanderscamp]

Spoiler: Context

grim: fwiw, i expect the rvs vote to change, and i dont realistically think ull die from my vote, but it did elicit a reaction from u and that’s the thing i wanted from u.

Strong read that OE and Arko are not scum together, I don't think you say "I don't think you'll die from my vote" if your plan is to bus.

Tell me more?

Spoiler:

grim: i’m calling it’s e-2 so scum cant quickhammer. i dont like

ur phrasing of “its technically NAI”

like it implies that there’s somehow a chance its townie in this setup to setup spec.

realistically, the only setup spec that actually matters is

if it’s better to townhunt or scumhunt the whole game

bc trying to switch between both seems like a bit much.

also, ur reaction to my e-2 vote is interesting and i wanna think abt it.

VOTE: Oclaxian Empire For

nitpicking

and

creating a false dichotomy

.

Personally I think we should scumhunt on days we will be sending people to hell and townhunt on days we will be sending people to heaven, and that people's preferences on this don't really matter all that much. I say take the approach that works best for you.

I also thought Arko's 'reaction' was another NAI thing, and your approach here seems a bit forced.

^ is town.

I TL Bella for this. Stating a read early on, and I, too, understand.

I think I understand Ranger's perspective that BloodB0t could be distancing, too. Idk my read on Blood overall though. I considered Oclaxian Empire + Arko scum together, seems like page 3 could be playful ribbing between teammates. Ironically I think Ranger could also be scum looking for an angle, partnered with one or more of {BloodB0t, Oclaxian Empire, Arko}.

The only actual read I have is the Bella townlean, the rest are scenarios I'm musing but I have no take on their relative likelihood.

You think page 3 sounded like playful ribbing?

I didn't get that impression at all.

Sorry, I originally skimmed page 3 but on a more careful reread "playful ribbing" is not the right description.

Yeah whoops. Initially I had looked at a few posts and my brain decided that the rest of the interaction must have been more of the same.

Do you still want me to tell you more?

I think my first post summed up my point and I think their interactions since then where Ox seemed very annoyed just strengthen my read, and I think it's fairly clear.

Having thought about it, you're right about the interactions since meaning they are unlikely to be partnered. And establishing that feels like the most important point in this conversation.

I had questions such as:
- Why isn't "I don't think you'll die from my vote" something you say when you bus?
- Why is it such a strong read? -> I think I understand this one now
- In a world where Arko and Oclaxian Empire were both scum, would they be more likely to hard bus or to distance just a little bit? Is "I don't think you'll die from my vote" unlikely in both scenarios? -> Also feels like a pointless question at the moment

Because by saying that sentence they're downplaying the importance of the bus vote and basically foregoing any cred they would get from it.
If they thought that, they could just choose to not say it and it looks better.

I have no idea what the answer to your third question is but I think it's unlikely in both, moreso the hard bussing one.

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I like the read even more now because if Ox is scum they're clearly fairly image focused.

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In some ways I find Vanders sooo towny. The above post, for example ^
BUT
I'm still worried he's scum. Send help!

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Maybe I’ll regret saying this in 2 hours’ time, but Vanders can have a townread for now…
*trembles like a leaf*

I like the lemon too but I haven’t thought about it as hard. (The lemon is AurorusVox.)

Why is giving me a townread terrifying?

[Vanderscamp]

My read on Ranger is contingent on what Arko is at the moment, I think.

Bad approach tbh. My reads are fluid. Write a case on what makes Arko scum and I'll listen. You can convince me. I simply haven't been, because Arko's content is by far the towniest in the game imo.

"you and arko can't be scum, but even if you flip town, i don't think arko is scum still bc arko's the towniest slot in the game"

This is a very interesting way of wording it.
It's simultaneously stating I'm town (163; "has determined", "won't reevaluate"; those aren't phrases used to describe a scum player, those are phrases describing a town player), while also taking the least-flattering reading of my 149.

I believe Arko-OE have interactions strongly indicating they're not scum-scum. Scum-town's possible. Town-scum's possible. Town-town's possible. Never scum-scum.
Separately, Arko is my strongest townread rn.
Separately, Oclaxian Empire's content has overall been suspect, enough to be a main scum candidate.
Arko isn't town because of OE being scum. The three points had no connection. Stating they did connect is somewhat disingenuous.

Can you explain why Arko's stuff is by far the towniest of everyone?
Because it's not obvious to me what he's done that's been super towny.

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Oh, I see you've just explained it.

From your explanation I feel like your townread is TMI.
I don't believe that you have individual townreads on all of those Arko posts.

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Morning.
UNVOTE:
Ok... 3 Votes on ox already is way too quick. It took you guys only like 12 hours past my original vote. plus, BB was against ox too so they might of voted/hammered also. That's way too quick for a game with 3 scum vs 6.

Not sure I buy this panic tbh

If scum orchestrated a quick hammer on someone at e-2 are they not just handing us the easy win since we only need to send 2 of them to hell?

Also it’s weird to me that you were focusing on ox making e-2 quickly when you were also at e-2 at the time and in fact still are?

Yes I'm E-2. I can't change that. It's bad. However, I could change ox being E-2. So I did. Found it too early when we have so much time left. If they end up acting scummier or they are on track to death, yes, I may revote them.

Like. What?

Of course you can change that, by defending the points levied against you or doing some scumhunting?

Ps I went back to iso you to see if your done these things, you offered some defence of “technically” and said you meant you were NAI for looking at “technical” reasons but that’s not how the word is used in context so this stinks of trying to cover up a mistake to me

Like how can “technically NAI” mean “NAI for technical speculation”???

Also I saw this

I think that might be E-2 By the way, let them breath for some time before voting them.

You put ox at e-2 or at least thought you did and now only later have you come back to say putting them at e-2 was shaky and too quick???

Ranger like wtf why do you townread this?

VOTE: arko

Pedit: E-2 again

I'm interested in this too.

[Vanderscamp]

here actually, lemme help u with that goal:

VOTE: oclax

Stop

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I don't care about this game currently, because Grim had the primary stake in playing the game.

I think you're scum. I don't like any of your posting, and I especially don't like how you're trying to defend Arko.

I think you should always die before ELO, and I think we should always die before ELO.

I don't want you to die before ELO, I think your posts this page have been very towny.

I agree with you about that post of Ranger's being scummy, but for a different reason.

I think if Ranger had a super strong townread on Arko where they townread basically every post Arko has made this game, I think they would open with that and not the associative read of you two not being together.

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I don't believe that you have individual townreads on all of those Arko posts.

My readslists demonstrate evolution in thought.

I clearly had reason to believe Arko was town, or else Arko wouldn't have been at the top.

I think if Ranger had a super strong townread on Arko where they townread basically every post Arko has made this game, I think they would open with that and not the associative read of you two not being together.

You have a misunderstanding of my brain neurology then.

Which was I asked about first?

I was asked about the interactions with Oclixian Empire first, so I answered that first.

This isn't true, though, right after you made your post that Ox was asking about, they questioned you about Arko being town, not the associative read.

why do u not think arko?

Well for a start you're not scum with Arko so if you're scum, Arko's not.

But even if you're town, Arko's the towniest slot in the game to me rn. I vibe hard with Arko.

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If you're trying to say you were responding to a post someone made earlier in the game when responding to Ox asking about your Arko read, then sure, but I have no idea why you wouldn't have put that in the big ranking post you made that Ox was responding to.

[Vanderscamp]

I don't believe that you have individual townreads on all of those Arko posts.

My readslists demonstrate evolution in thought.

I clearly had reason to believe Arko was town, or else Arko wouldn't have been at the top.

I think if Ranger had a super strong townread on Arko where they townread basically every post Arko has made this game, I think they would open with that and not the associative read of you two not being together.

You have a misunderstanding of my brain neurology then.

Which was I asked about first?

I was asked about the interactions with Oclixian Empire first, so I answered that first.

Receipts:

121 was the first time I was asked about the interaction. (The context behind it was the votes on Oclixian Empire; those votes included Arko.)

I stated Arko was the towniest slot in the game off of their content (not interactions,

content

) in 176. Wording is important; if Arko's interactions were the basis of that read I would have specified. (The post literally said I thought Arko's content was town

separately from

interactions.)

The next time was 170. Ox-Arko interactions, not Arko content.
THEN 173. Oc-Arko interactions, PLUS Arko content. Which is how I responded.

I answer things by and large in their chronological order.
I was asked about the interaction before I was asked to explain the read.
So I explained the interaction before I explained the read.

Both were quite apparent from the start. I was rather unambiguous.

I don't understand these receipts because the post I'm talking about is #149.

Maybe we're talking about different posts?

[Vanderscamp]

I also don't really agree with "evolution of thought" for your Arko reads.

Like, maybe in the sense that the words you're choosing to explain the read are slightly different?

But you aren't going into any detail about your reasoning, you're just calling all of his individual posts towny with different wording.
Like, I could take your explanations for your reads, choose a random player, and say the same thing about all of their posts and it could apply to them too.


Not that that's necessarily super scummy!
I can believe having Arko as a top town this game.

What I don't believe is that you think every single one of those posts you quoted is individually towny, I don't think Arko's posts deserve that, and the reasoning you did give wasn't very compelling.
I think it's more likely you're either lying or TMIing the read, it just feels way too strong to be real.

[Vanderscamp]

VOTE: Ranger

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I don't care about this game currently, because Grim had the primary stake in playing the game.

I think you're scum. I don't like any of your posting, and I especially don't like how you're trying to defend Arko.

I think you should always die before ELO, and I think we should always die before ELO.

I don't want you to die before ELO, I think your posts this page have been very towny.

I agree with you about that post of Ranger's being scummy, but for a different reason.

I think if Ranger had a super strong townread on Arko where they townread basically every post Arko has made this game, I think they would open with that and not the associative read of you two not being together.

Kori: I think we as a slot should be killed before ELO, or at least before Judgement Day. The only exception is if you think I obv!town so hard that I can never be scum, and I remain in the game to further narrow down the scumpool, in which case - I could see that, and I would agree with the sentiment, but I still think as a slot, we should be sorted and sent off

before

that point.

Also, is your scumread on Ranger because of the bolded?

(I also have some time before I go V/LA today and tomorrow, so I'm gonna try to make use of that time. I got some notes from Grim on gamestate that I can post later today if anyone wants them.)

I think you're the towniest player in the game so far.

I don't see anything bolded.

[Vanderscamp]

Maybe we're talking about different posts?

That would not surprise me. Given I'm the one who wrote my posts tho, I trust my view on them more than yours.

This isn't true, though, right after you made your post that Ox was asking about, they questioned you about Arko being town, not the associative read.

That was a question about the associative, not a question about Arko being town.

I was asked why I didn't think Arko's vote on Oclaxian Empire was scum.

That wasn't a question about Arko's alignment.
That was a question about Arko's association with Oclaxian Empire.

The context was "Oclaxian Empire voters contain scum".
I specified 'maybe so, but not Arko'.
I was asked why not Arko.
I wasn't asked why Arko was town, or why Arko wasn't scum.
I was specifically asked why Arko wasn't scum voting Oclaxian Empire.

I answered the question given.

Again--if you think differently, you don't understand my brain neurology.

I reread this, you're right that Ox was probably asking about the associative read.

I have no idea why you wouldn't have put that in the big ranking post you made that Ox was responding to.

My default is readslists without commentary.

I add commentary when I think it pertinent, for things worth commenting on.
19/80/81 contain zero commentary.
82 contains one comment, disagreeing with the BloodB0t town callout.

86 is my first substantive post.

Then 119.

And then in 120 it was back to one comment, specifying I believe Arko wasn't scum on Oclaxian Empire. (A read previously talked about per 119.)

And more commentary in 149.

I comment on things worth responding to, as they pop up. I'm not inclined to react to nonexistent content.

Nobody asked me to explain my Arko townread until later. I explained it as soon as it was requested.
People did ask me to explain my "Arko is not scum with Oclaxian Empire" take. I explained each time it was asked.

If you take umbrage with my minimalism, there's a simple fix; ask and engage me. The fault doesn't lie with me for not inquiring into my posts.

But you aren't going into any detail about your reasoning, you're just calling all of his individual posts towny with different wording.

Yes?

That's still evolution in read. It's taking new information in. The new information might be reworded of prior info, which results in...

...Arko being my top townread,
Changing to being my top townread,
Changing to being my top townread,
Changing to being my top townread.

+Town actions build off of each other. One town action builds off of previous town actions.
Arko's posting has been +town throughout the game.

I also did explain my Arko read beyond using vibes though. Solving in 26 was actually +town specifically by dividing the scum up into "one not posted, two which have". That gives tangible analysis and the beginning of sorting.
It specifies 2 scum in {Arko, KawaiiKame, Oclaxian Empire, Vanderscamp, Aisa, AurorusVox, Ranger, Bellaphant} and 1 scum in...
{BloodB0t}.

I don't have a problem at all with your approach to giving your townreads or the amount that you've talked about them.

My problem with you is that I don't believe your townread on Arko is real.
For example, this post you just quoted, "tangible analysis?"
Either you've only played with the worst scum in the world, or #26 is the kind of thing that can be replicated extremely easily as scum.
I really just don't believe that all of these similarly generic posts from Arko are posts that you think are all towny.

I believe that being the last post before going to bed shows an insanely +town mindset, and given followthrough, would allow for further analysis and breakdown of those within, which Arko had already done on page one.

Like, I could take your explanations for your reads, choose a random player, and say the same thing about all of their posts and it could apply to them too.

Sure, but that'd make you a liar because those things wouldn't apply to their posts.

I don't agree, I could point to any game related post of any player and say I like the sentiment or engagement of it, or say it's coming from a towny place, and it would be just as meaningful.

What I don't believe is that you think every single one of those posts you quoted is individually towny, I don't think Arko's posts deserve that, and the reasoning you did give wasn't very compelling.
it just feels way too strong to be real.

You seem to have a very different view of my posts than reality.

I've repeatedly stated I'll listen to cases of Arko being scum.
None have responded to my offer.

It's not that Arko is strongly town.
I have Arko as town, but my reads are fluent enough I could be convinced otherwise.

It's that I think the

scumreads

are too strong to be real, because nobody has brought forth compelling arguments on Arko.
The burden of proof is on the accuser--not the accused.

The default is a slot (including Arko) being town, and Arko's posts support that to me.

When I feel Arko's posts are towny enough, and the default is town, then it is up to the accusers to convince me otherwise.

Nobody has even tried.

My main point is that I don't believe that you're reading all of the posts you quoted as towny, regardless of the strength of the read, but anyway, i think the lemon's post that it's weird for Arko to put someone at E-2, and then a day later say that we shouldn't be putting people at E-2, is a compelling case and possibly more alignment indicative than any of the posts you've quoted about Arko.
Thoughts on that?

[Vanderscamp]

The burden of proof is on the accuser--not the accused.

Speaking of, I've undertaken that burden and made my accusation.

Spoiler: my case

"you and arko can't be scum, but even if you flip town, i don't think arko is scum still bc arko's the towniest slot in the game"

This is a very interesting way of wording it.
It's simultaneously stating I'm town (163; "has determined", "won't reevaluate"; those aren't phrases used to describe a scum player, those are phrases describing a town player), while also taking the least-flattering reading of my 149.

I believe Arko-OE have interactions strongly indicating they're not scum-scum. Scum-town's possible. Town-scum's possible. Town-town's possible. Never scum-scum.
Separately, Arko is my strongest townread rn.
Separately, Oclaxian Empire's content has overall been suspect, enough to be a main scum candidate.
Arko isn't town because of OE being scum. The three points had no connection. Stating they did connect is somewhat disingenuous.

i think either ur a partner with arko, or scum trying to pocket arko.

Oh? How interesting you use this as an argument against me!

"you and arko can't be scum, but even if you flip town, i don't think arko is scum still bc arko's the towniest slot in the game"

You seemed quite opposed to this argument when

*I*

was the one you thought was making it against

you

.

You are saying I'm scum regardless of Arko's alignment (partner with Arko = I'm scum, scum trying to pocket Arko = I'm scum),
In the exact same way you

objected

to me saying Arko was town regardless of yours. ("Arko isn't scum with Oclaxian, Arko isn't scum when Oclaxian is town".)

Care to explain the discrepancy?

It's simultaneously stating I'm town (163; "has determined", "won't reevaluate"; those aren't phrases used to describe a scum player, those are phrases describing a town player), while also taking the least-flattering reading of my 149

this does not say ur town. this says ur scum bc you know what my alignment is.

Wording's important.

You didn't say "Ranger

knows

our alignment and has

decided

to not reevaluate".

You said,

it just makes me feel like ranger has very deterministically decided what alignment we are, and what arko is, and not gonna re-evaluate.

"Ranger

decided

our alignment, and

is not

going to reevaluate".

The difference between these is the difference between calling me scum and calling me town.

The former would have been calling me scum. If you stated you thought I KNEW your alignment, you'd be stating by implication I'm scum.

The latter is what you did, and is calling me town. You stated I DECIDED your alignment.

Scum don't decide the alignment of other players. (Town do.)
Scum know the alignment of other players.

Your reference to me

deciding

rather than

knowing

your alignment.

It's not semantics--it's a scumslip.

VOTE: Oclaxian Empire.

184 + 185(backed by 176) are huge.

I believe Oclaxian Empire demonstrated a lack of internal consistency in their thoughts. This is

maybe

explainable depending on the individuals who did the posts and their internal communication system. If they weren't talking to each other and if it was two different people in the system posting, it could come from town. So I'm not saying that alone makes a smoking gun.

The scumslip does though. It was possible Oclaxian Empire was simply stating "Yes, I think you're town, who determined my alignment and won't reevaluate".

Was

, but with Oclaxian Empire having denied this as what they meant, and insisting it meant the opposite, meant any benefit of the doubt was removed.

Oclaxian Empire didn't say I

knew

their alignment, accusing me of being scum.
Oclaxian Empire said I

determined

their alignment, which is a slip of the tongue revealing they know I am town.

Stop

Vanderscamp:

Why have you not addressed my case?

You've attacked my defense of Arko.

You've been silent about my case on Oclaxian Empire.

Or maybe it's just my disarming charisma, that happens too

Aisa:

You've started your more serious reading.

Would you care to comment on my case?

Ranger - what do you make of arko apparently freaking out over e-2 being too soon, when they themselves thought they’d put ox at e-2 earlier in the thread?

AurorusVox:

Counter-question; what do you make of Oclaxian Empire stating I had 'decided' my reads and 'would not reevaluate' (implying I'm town), rather than 'know and decide not to reevaluate'?
What do you make of Oclaxian Empire's hypocrisy in stating I'm scum regardless of Arko's alignment, when having criticized me for saying Arko was town regardless of Oclaxian Empire's alignment?

I think your case on OE is okay, I don't think it's impossible that it could be a scum TMI post but I'm not sold on the idea that phrasing it like that can only be done with knowledge that you're town.
I decided about two pages into the game that I'm not going to try to analyze the logic of what OE is saying because I don't think it's going to be very helpful based on my perception of their playstyle. I don't care that OE has been inconsistent because it's likely to me that OE is not a consistent player. Surely you don't expect consistency either?...
More relevantly I think OE's response to your case was very towny, and I think the whole "you need to lim be before LYLO" sounded like a very genuine town reaction. I care more about this than linguistic analysis.

[Vanderscamp]

Ranger - what do you make of arko apparently freaking out over e-2 being too soon, when they themselves thought they’d put ox at e-2 earlier in the thread?

I don't see any freak-out. 45 is no freak-out. It is responding to the e-2. It is not a freakout. It is commenting on it. Commentary does not a freakout make. Tone-wise I would actually say it's the

opposite

of a freakout. It's inquiring into Oclaxian Empire's vote in a way I feel was quite town.

It is no sin to have suspicion on a slot after that slot votes you. The handling was the important part.

I don't see hypocrisy in voting Oclaxian Empire up to e-2 when Arko has valid reasons to suspect the slot.
Arko wasn't concerned about being at e-2. Arko was inquiring into Oclaxian Empire's e-2 vote. After the inquiry, Arko came to the conclusion Oclaxian Empire was likely scum in part for the e-2 vote. Arko put Oclaxian Empire to e-2.

There's nothing suspect in that chain of events. It's my opinion it's quite the opposite. I believe that chain of events and that process indicates Arko had a town mindset, approaching from a position of being uninformed and forming an opinion based off the information being generated in-thread.

Wow, does everything Arko says give you the impression of coming from a town mindset?...


I'm not sure how to easily link specific posts but #154 is the post that I think Auroros is talking about and gave me pause.

[Vanderscamp]

[...]
As for Arko, I've vibed with them from the beginning. First page was just vibes of rvs + liking their mechtalk; the townread started in earnest from 26. Specifically,

Also- I'm betting now that one of the non-posters is a sinner. the other 2 are probably within this group of 7 though as you could probably obviously tell.

I loved this thought process.

I liked the engagement in 41.
I liked the sentiment of 43/48/61/65.
54 is an approach I feel comes from a town mindset.
The explanation of 69 is an approach which is nai, but the context of sharing it makes me lean town. (Someone explaining their philosophy is nai in of itself. The context behind explaining the philosophy can be ai, in this case, +town.)
I felt 118 was a good approach upon returning to the thread.
154 is not a scum post.

There's good reason Arko's my top townread.
Near as I can tell, there's no reason for Arko to be scum.

Yeahhhh you know what, these are good points. Arko gets my townread!

Are they good points?
Did you click on any of the posts that Ranger linked to see which posts they were talking about?

This is a genuine question, I'm interested in the answer to this.
I'm interested if you agreed with the reads on all of the individual posts, or just some of them.

[Vanderscamp]

What is your read on Arko, Vanders? Am I going to find it somewhere among the posts I haven't read yet?

Pretty null. Vaguely towny in tone but I agree with Vox's case.
I think if Ranger is scum their read on Arko is more likely to be scum defending a town than a partner.

[Vanderscamp]

I think blood is quite towny, I agree with all of what they're saying.

[Vanderscamp]

@Vanders, I see you've answered my question, that's nice and answering this post feels like a very fair trade now!

[...]
As for Arko, I've vibed with them from the beginning. First page was just vibes of rvs + liking their mechtalk; the townread started in earnest from 26. Specifically,

Also- I'm betting now that one of the non-posters is a sinner. the other 2 are probably within this group of 7 though as you could probably obviously tell.

I loved this thought process.

I liked the engagement in 41.
I liked the sentiment of 43/48/61/65.
54 is an approach I feel comes from a town mindset.
The explanation of 69 is an approach which is nai, but the context of sharing it makes me lean town. (Someone explaining their philosophy is nai in of itself. The context behind explaining the philosophy can be ai, in this case, +town.)
I felt 118 was a good approach upon returning to the thread.
154 is not a scum post.

There's good reason Arko's my top townread.
Near as I can tell, there's no reason for Arko to be scum.

Yeahhhh you know what, these are good points. Arko gets my townread!

Are they good points?
Did you click on any of the posts that Ranger linked to see which posts they were talking about?

This is a genuine question, I'm interested in the answer to this.
I'm interested if you agreed with the reads on all of the individual posts, or just some of them.

I did click on the links! Most, not all, admittedly. It's in fact impossible to form an opinion on the case without clicking the links; you tell me if you can judge the words "54 is an approach I feel comes from a town mindset" without knowing what post 54 is.

I thought most of them were

great

points. I agreed about most of the things Ranger pointed out being town-indicative, and that's pretty rare. (The embarrassment I will go through if Arko turns out to be scum though! ) The bits I disagree with are 118 and 154, I can't decide whether they're town indicative or scum indicative yet, and though I haven't read the discussion about post 154 in detail yet, if Arko has contradicted himself a bit that's always a little worrying. Then again I don't think inconsistency is always scummy. We'll see.

This post actually sounds more real than Ranger's stuff, even though you're mostly saying the same stuff.

But even the fact that you're disagreeing with some of the points feels more genuine than Ranger's approach, which seems more like assuming Arko is town and working backwards.

[Vanderscamp]

Pretty null. Vaguely towny in tone

Hypocrite.

Why?

I don't think he's made a dozen posts that are towny in tone, if that's what you're referring to.

[Vanderscamp]

which seems more like assuming Arko is town and working backwards.

Is this your issue???

That I'm assuming Arko is town and working backwards???

I thought I made it clear.

Everyone is town by default.

Yes

, I assume Arko is town, because I assume everyone is town initially.

My readslists are fluent and everyone starts at null.

But while everyone starts with a

read

of null, I still

assume

town.

I'm not sure how to explain that if you don't get the conceptual difference between assuming town and reading town and knowing town. The three are all separate ideas.

{AurorusVox, Aisa}
{Bellaphant}
{Arko, Vanderscamp}
{KawaiiKame}
{BloodB0t}
{Oclaxian Empire}

Do you really think I don't know the difference between those things?

The way you're talking about Arko is not coming from a perspective of assuming he's town by default.
You're pointing out multiple posts of Arko's that you think are actively towny, that I and others doubt are alignment indicative enough for you to be able to get the reads that you're claiming.

It looks to me more like you are scum justifying a read on someone, than someone coming to those conclusions naturally.

[Vanderscamp]

[...]
As for Arko, I've vibed with them from the beginning. First page was just vibes of rvs + liking their mechtalk; the townread started in earnest from 26. Specifically,

Also- I'm betting now that one of the non-posters is a sinner. the other 2 are probably within this group of 7 though as you could probably obviously tell.

I loved this thought process.

I liked the engagement in 41.
I liked the sentiment of 43/48/61/65.
54 is an approach I feel comes from a town mindset.
The explanation of 69 is an approach which is nai, but the context of sharing it makes me lean town. (Someone explaining their philosophy is nai in of itself. The context behind explaining the philosophy can be ai, in this case, +town.)
I felt 118 was a good approach upon returning to the thread.
154 is not a scum post.

There's good reason Arko's my top townread.
Near as I can tell, there's no reason for Arko to be scum.

Yeahhhh you know what, these are good points. Arko gets my townread!

Are they good points?
Did you click on any of the posts that Ranger linked to see which posts they were talking about?

This is a genuine question, I'm interested in the answer to this.
I'm interested if you agreed with the reads on all of the individual posts, or just some of them.

I really like this, mainly because I am now skimming rangers posts;)

Yeah, I was expecting to have a scum read on Aisa for it but their response was fine.

[Vanderscamp]

I can't work out my read on aisa at all: I thought vibed obv!town, then I was weirdes out about them being so strange about granting a town read, then town again, then I disliked their jumping in fully with ranger, but their response was vibe town again. The thing that's bothering me about their recent posting though is that it feels quite ...self conscious?

Saying "vibed obvtown" then reevaluating seems more towny than not

[Vanderscamp]

Oh, I thought he was talking about you?


The post means that I liked Vander's Sus of you because it felt organic because I was not fully reading rangers posts by then. It means him Ans I are flowing the same, rather than me particularly liking it as Sus against you, if that makes sense

I was talking about you, I thought saying that was town from you.

[Vanderscamp]

Fair, think I'm just in my head a bit about the set up, as it seems fairly town sided but with slightly less info to go on than normal? I don't think I've played nightless before.

Why do you think it feels town sided?

This reads REALLY bad, I feel like it's way too late in the game to care about these questions.

This just reeks of fake hunting.

[Vanderscamp]

Fair, think I'm just in my head a bit about the set up, as it seems fairly town sided but with slightly less info to go on than normal? I don't think I've played nightless before.

Why do you think it feels town sided?

This reads REALLY bad, I feel like it's way too late in the game to care about these questions.

This just reeks of fake hunting.

I think you're reaching for something here. My question was in response to a post only 4 posts before the one you have an issue with. What's wrong with me trying to engage with someone and have a conversation with them? You know I just replaced in? Besides, I personally didn't like the fact they feel it's townsided or the fact they wanted to articulate that message to the players in this game.

Because I don't think that's a very relevant thing to discuss at this stage of the game. Like, Bella could be scum but completely genuine about thoughts relating to the setup, so I'm not sure what kind of answer you're looking for.

[Vanderscamp]

I see kowabunga was just hammered, that seems fine, my biggest concern is that Ranger did it.

[Vanderscamp]

Pretty null. Vaguely towny in tone

Hypocrite.

Why?
I don't think he's made a dozen posts that are towny in tone, if that's what you're referring to.

Still. You agree with my take (

vaguely

,

towny

, in

tone

) in strength and reason.
Yet attack me for having that same read.

If you compiled a list of towny-tone posts from him it'd be nearly identical to mine.

The way you're talking about Arko is not coming from a perspective of assuming he's town by default.
You're pointing out multiple posts of Arko's that you think are actively towny, that I and others doubt are alignment indicative enough for you to be able to get the reads that you're claiming.

I repeat: hypocrite.

My read is no different than yours.

I formed it from reading the thread and coming to a conclusion.

Nothing more.

I've explained my stance and how I came to those conclusions.
I explained why it was not strong. (Explicitly, it's a mixture of vibes, gut, tone, and lean. Not the basis of a strong read.

Strongest

townread, but not

strong

.)
You're accusing me of doing something you're doing yourself.

Is it possible this is a good faith argument from you?...

If I compiled a list of towny tone posts there would probably be like three of them maximum, and probably not even any of the ones you quoted since I think he had townier tone more recently.

The fact that we have a similar read on a player doesn't mean that my reasons are exactly the same, or that I have to like your reasons.

And I feel like that should be incredibly obvious so I'm having a hard time believing you believe this.

[Vanderscamp]

Ok

I would have been interested to know what I would have thought of kowabungah had flipped scum in terms of Ranger's alignment!

[Vanderscamp]

Ranger, who is your 100% totally town guaranteed no lie?

Myself.

I've no read comparable in strength to my read on Ranger.

(If you meant who my strongest townread is, that'd be Aisa tho.)

VOTE: Ranger

Yeah, no chance, I think you should just be snap limmed D3.

[Vanderscamp]

I'm having a hard time believing you believe this.

You seem to have strayed from my argument. I'm not sure how to engage when you're talking about something different than the original point.

Responding to this:

"If you compiled a list of towny-tone posts from him it'd be nearly identical to mine."

"My read is no different than yours."

This is not remotely true and I think you know this given what I've said about your read on him.
Idk what your argument or original point is supposed to be, but I don't believe you believe either of these things.

[Vanderscamp]

VOTE: Vanderscamp

My legacy if this happens is to kill Ranger

[Vanderscamp]

I could be wrong, but I don't like just about anything they've posted.

[Vanderscamp]

My vote if not for myself would be OE, I think the only way that one is getting through given the state of the thread would be if it's incorrect.

[Vanderscamp]

My vote if not for myself would be OE, I think the only way that one is getting through given the state of the thread would be if it's incorrect.

I need you to walk me through this post

My most likely town outside of myself is OE

I could be misreading the thread but I think that's a non-consensus opinion that's likely to not get very many votes.

If it did get 5 votes, it's probably not because 5 town are pushing it.

Like, I definitely could be wrong on Ranger, but even if I think Ranger is like 25% town, I'm 0% to vote them right now because that vote is never succeeding in getting five pure town votes given current reads.

[Vanderscamp]

The only saving grace is that scum can't really out themselves to send a town to hell, because the heaven angels have the chance to rescue it the next day. That shouldn't be too hard if it was done obviously.

[Vanderscamp]

I'm much more worried about sending a sinner to heaven today, I think that will make the game much harder to win than ending up at 4-3.

[Vanderscamp]

Sorry, busy this weekend but am still alive, will post real content soon

[Vanderscamp]

The only saving grace is that scum can't really out themselves to send a town to hell, because the heaven angels have the chance to rescue it the next day. That shouldn't be too hard if it was done obviously.

Sorry, can you reword this?

In the hell phase tomorrow, even though it's 4-3, scum can't really out themselves to hammer town.

[Vanderscamp]

Ok, list of reasons to TR Bella, I think this might be my last post before I become less available.

Reason 1: general vibes / tone, this will be more convincing to me than to others but that’s ok

UNVOTE: On re-evaluation, I don't think OE is scum. Seems quite townie.

@Bellephant: Can you elaborate on your thought process behind voting Arko?

Something just feels really inorganic? The auto townreads felt strange for doing what seemed very surface level set up stuff, rather than 'yay, town -sided!' or whatever, and then the convo with Ox again didn't vibe right: I ended up tr-ing the ox slot ans not feeling anything more about arko, which tends to be one of my red flags for scum: they end up feeling 'grey'. I need to think about rangers interactions with arko too.

I don’t feel either way about the reasons she gives here but I like that this seems to show depth in her thought process.

I can't work out my read on aisa at all: I thought vibed obv!town, then I was weirdes out about them being so strange about granting a town read, then town again, then I disliked their jumping in fully with ranger, but their response was vibe town again. The thing that's bothering me about their recent posting though is that it feels quite ...self conscious?

I think she’s waffling on me for reasons that it’s natural to waffle on. Again, I think I just liked the fact she bothered to express this read.

I think the setup is townsided because it has a history of 5 town wins and 1 mafia win. I wouldn't be able to tell by looking at the mechanics of it. That being said, I'm not sure what we gain by knowing it's townsided. Does that mean we shouldn't try as hard?

Bloodbot, struggling to read you too: can you throw a question or thought at me?

I don't have much to say, other than to ask for your thoughts behind:

NGL I'd kinda been looking for two scum.

I'm looking forward to Kowahbunga's thoughts on the game.

Yeah, I think it was because of the talk of pairs and theatre? Ox/arko, arko/ranger, etc. I am not good at mech at the best of tinws

I think this may be the towniest post in her ISO. If I were scum trying to fake a townslip, “I’d been looking for two scum because of all the talk of pairs” wouldn’t be anywhere near the top of my list of excuses. So I think this post shows a very towny perspective.

Hey, do you want to throw a few questions my way? You've kinda been filed in my head as 'kinda shares my reads' and I haven't massively examined that.

I like “you’ve been filed in my head as…”, again this raises the probability (to me) that Bella has all these reads and thoughts living in her head and that she’s not just making them up when she has to.

I want feedback on this post, please!

I think this is a great post, I agree with it.

[Vanderscamp]

Asia, the Bella stuff I can at least understand your pov on it. I’m kinda half letting my townread on you guide my other reads cos I’ve found it quite hard to get my head into the game and found myself skimming a bit.

Vanders - what’s your take on Asia/Bella?

I find the drew vote on me a little suspect like dude I was thirsting for arko to be limmed most of yesterday are you trying to get inside my head lol

Self voting is logically the best play here but we’d get nowhere with it so we do need people who aren’t getting to heaven to not self vote. Problem is that puts the power into the scummiest peoples hands.

Could I propose something akin to a draft where we assume everyone has a self vote and therefore we need to secure 4 supporting votes for a person to go to heaven?

So like everyone would say who they would send to heaven other than themselves and we see if anyone hits 4 that way? Eg I would send Vanders or Asia.

And failing that like a tournament style where like we all propose one person to send and anyone who gets 0 votes gets removed and then we go again with anyone with 0-1 votes removed, then 0-2 etc until we have found the right person?

I just feel like the risk otherwise is people voting themselves and not being as willing to change…

Bella i see you asking me to engage you and that’s fine maybe you can start with telling me what you think of my plan above??

I've had Aisa/Bella mostly null, I think the towncase from Aisa is quite strong and probably accurate if Aisa is scum.

[Vanderscamp]

How do you feel about Drew's posting since the flip?

Not great.

If there was scum on the D1 wagon, it was Drew. I'm not getting town vibes rn at all.

This is a pretty interesting statement.

What do you mean if there was scum on the wagon?

There are three scum and four people who were not on the wagon, and one of them flipped town.
I wasn't voting Kowabungah and you think I'm town, right?

I know from your POV both wagons would be town, so why are you phrasing it as if scum would be unlikely to be on a 5p Kowabungah one?

[Vanderscamp]

Yeahhh idk hard read
The stance on Ranger still worries me, like he seems quite convinced she’s scum but if so why isn’t he trying to convince others of it?
Then again there’s townreadable stuff
Can someone towncase?

I think I’m also just a bit worried there’s like no opposition to his wagon right now
Well that’s not true Ranger just tried to oppose

I can’t tell if I’m damaging everything by being loud and planting bad ideas into people’s heads

In what way do you think I haven't been trying to convince people that Ranger is scum?

[Vanderscamp]

Oh, it's coming back to me now!
Another thing I wasn’t sure about yesterday (real-life yesterday) was that if he srs Ranger and thinks Ranger is spewing Arko / Drew town then he should maybe tr Arko / Drew as strongly as he srs Ranger.
But I’m not sure he does.

I think it's more likely they're town if Ranger is scum but I could easily be wrong.
If I were 100% confident that it was spew, then I would townread him as strongly.

[Vanderscamp]

I'm not comfortable sending Aisa to heaven, I feel like their posts have generally been towny, but does anyone have an example of Aisa posting something that is obviously not scum, as opposed to good content that could come from competent scum?
Asia's towncase on Bella being a good example of the kind of stuff I'm looking for.

I have OE/Enchant and Bella (from Aisa's case) as townier than Aisa, and I think Vox and bloodbot have also sounded fairly towny as well.

[Vanderscamp]

Also worth noting is that I've been a heaven contender for a while, but Ranger has never voted me because they've been worried about the people on my wagon.

But Aisa gets voted by Drew and Vox, two people who I'm pretty sure Ranger thinks are very likely scum, and is immediately happy with voting for that wagon?


I think Ranger is probably just openly wolfing and this makes me feel worse about Aisa by association.

[Vanderscamp]

Also worth noting is that I've been a heaven contender for a while, but Ranger has never voted me because they've been worried about the people on my wagon.

Your statement has a flaw, so to correct your misunderstanding:

If Vanderscamp is town, it's because the scum believe Vander in heaven is +scum.

I'll vote Vander if there's no other option. However, his wrong scumread is a threat.

If the game comes down to a heaven vote and he advocates for my death there, we lose because I'm town.

I'd much prefer someone like [Aisa] if I had to.

This was my reason for voting Aisa.

Simply put, Vander: if you are town, if you go to heaven, and if the game comes down to the decision of heaven, you're going to vote me out, and the town will lose because of your bias.

I've trust in Aisa to be more open-minded because you seem convinced I'm scum. None of the players raising points for why I'm town has swayed you. None of the players pointing out the flaws in your logic have put doubts in you. You are not open to me being town because plenty have given the reasons why I'm town and why I'm not scum and your scumread remains firm.

Since I know I'm town and I know the game can come to a heaven decision, placing someone into heaven who is convinced I'm scum will let the scum win.

The wagon compositions have nothing to do with my vote. Not wanting you to cost the town the game by being unwavering in your unjustified conviction I'm scum has everything to do with my vote.

What do you mean if there was scum on the wagon?

Exactly what I said. 'If' is the accurate descriptor.
It's possible for the entire wagon to be town if {Vanderscamp, Oclaxian Empire, BloodB0t} is scum.
There's Vander-Oclaxian interactions which would support that.
There's Oclaxian-BoodB0t interactions which would support that.
So, it is fully possible the wagon could indeed be all town, because there are potential associatives between all three members off the wagon.

The 'if' is for when that team isn't the solve. Statistically speaking it's quite unlikely for all scum to be off a D1 mislim, and reads-wise I don't think all the scum were off the wagon.

I'm approaching from a viewpoint of not assuming anything one way or another.

I'll give a more thorough reassessment tomorrow.

I think you not voting me because I want to put you in hell is reasonable!

I'm not convinced, but you just keep posting things that I don't like.

I'm hoping I won't have to decide your alignment, I'm hoping I'll go to heaven and you'll get put in hell before I have to make a decision.
If I do have to make a decision at that stage, it'll at least be with knowledge that you're good.

Re: your statement "if there was scum on the wagon," I actually do understand what your statement means logically.
What I don't understand is what relevance the Kow wagon has, or why you're phrasing it like that.
Like, what's the point of any of what you're saying in your last few hundred words?
I know you didn't say it was, but why would the non-Kowabungah voters ever be a solve?


Can you talk about the reasons why you think you're not evil here?
Because I have seen other people give good reads on you, I just haven't been swayed by the reasons.

Why do you think I should be reading you as good?

[Vanderscamp]

In long run it didn't matter it's all mafia ploy.

8 players
5 good
3 evil

And Aisa didn't vote for self.
So mafia helped.

Yeah, two mafia minimum from my POV voted Aisa.
Maybe implying my reads were better?
Who knows

[Vanderscamp]

So anyway, Vander, what do you have for scumreads now? You obviously were scumreading Ranger- does Aisa being town affect that? She was most interested in defending Ranger, do you think she was wrong? And who else would you see as being scum with Ranger since it seemed like you were most wary of Aisa? You've been feeling most everyone else is somewhat towny, but there's got to be two more scum in there.

Yeah I mean it seems even more likely now that Aisa was wrong, I don't understand why scum would want to send Aisa to heaven over me if they know that Ranger is town and they can get an extremely reliable kill there to win the game if they can lim someone other than Ranger today.
I'm not super confident in other scum, very likely not OE/Enchant.

[Vanderscamp]

I really liked the catch up for town but dislike 555 quite a lot.

BTW could you elaborate on this?

In long run it didn't matter it's all mafia ploy.

8 players
5 good
3 evil

And Aisa didn't vote for self.
So mafia helped.

Also, this makes one of(if not both) Aureal and Vander town confirmed.

*scratches head* How's that? Obviously I know I'm town, but from your POV what's stopping Vander and I from being scum and just the third one voting Aisa?

Honestly forgetting that we still have 3 scum left, and not just 2 lol.

And feeling confident about Ranger being scum from PoE, I jumped to conclusions.

I guess this is towny.

[Vanderscamp]

COOL NOW I LOOK INCOMPETENT

Why? We want to send town to heaven so if anything it’s the opposite??

I really liked the catch up for town but dislike 555 quite a lot.

BTW could you elaborate on this?

In long run it didn't matter it's all mafia ploy.

8 players
5 good
3 evil

And Aisa didn't vote for self.
So mafia helped.

Also, this makes one of(if not both) Aureal and Vander town confirmed.

*scratches head* How's that? Obviously I know I'm town, but from your POV what's stopping Vander and I from being scum and just the third one voting Aisa?

Honestly forgetting that we still have 3 scum left, and not just 2 lol.

And feeling confident about Ranger being scum from PoE, I jumped to conclusions.

Nggghhhh. I don’t like this, it sounds like it could be a townslip at first…

except

for you to quote and believe enchants post (“scum must have helped”) then you have to be working from the pov of there being 3 scum and 5 townies. If you think its 6:2 then it’s entirely possible for the five on the wagon plus asia to be town. The excuse of “oh I forgot it was 3 scum whoops” doesn’t match with the original post and to be looks like it’s fabricating a lack of knowledge.

Also don’t like the idea of confirming people as town based on “confidence” in a scumread - confirm people based on actual fact and truth. Unless you “know” for a fact that Ranger is scum because they’re your buddy!

VOTE: drew for now, but would also vote ranger.

(I don’t want to put them at e-1 yet cos if they’re gonna be openly scum I assume they’ll just self hammer (although - is that actually a bad thing in nightless??))

Ok, you've convinced me.
I guess the fact that Drew was quoting a post that said 5 town and 3 scum when making that post makes it a little more dubious.
I'll put it as null though.

[Vanderscamp]

VOTE: Ranger


Sorry if this is wrong, Ranger, it's my fault if it is, but nothing I'm seeing is making me change my mind.

[Vanderscamp]

So anyway, Vander, what do you have for scumreads now? You obviously were scumreading Ranger- does Aisa being town affect that? She was most interested in defending Ranger, do you think she was wrong? And who else would you see as being scum with Ranger since it seemed like you were most wary of Aisa? You've been feeling most everyone else is somewhat towny, but there's got to be two more scum in there.

Yeah I mean it seems even more likely now that Aisa was wrong, I don't understand why scum would want to send Aisa to heaven over me if they know that Ranger is town and they can get an extremely reliable kill there to win the game if they can lim someone other than Ranger today.
I'm not super confident in other scum, very likely not OE/Enchant.

Can you talk me through this as well?

What part do you need talking through?

I know two scum minimum voted Aisa for heaven in a spot I could have been hammered, this post is speculating why.

[Vanderscamp]

@vander it's the why I feel is missing? Maybe I'm tired but it feels like conclusions, not procees. This in particular ' understand why scum would want to send Aisa to heaven over me if they know that Ranger is town and they can get an extremely reliable kill there to win the game if they can lim someone other than Ranger today.'

In a world where Ranger and I are both town, if scum sent me to heaven yesterday and then get a miskill on a non-Ranger player today, they can probably just assume I will send Ranger straight to hell, right?

So why not try to do that?

[Vanderscamp]

Because that "get a miskill on a non-Ranger player today" part seems like a potentially huge step? It seemed pretty likely then and still seems pretty likely that Ranger is the target today. You were calling for her to be snap limmed here and saying that if you were sent to the martyr thread that was your legacy.

Sure, but if Ranger is town, do you think it's better or worse for me or Aisa to be in heaven?

[Vanderscamp]

@vanders, who do you think scum would be likely to/want to mis-lim if "ranger and I (you) are both town" ?

@aureal, I'm pretty good at reading enchant! I'm surprised you've never seen him town it up, he often becomes obv! town, often by solving/mech, or obv scum by lack of engagement/effort.

I might be misunderstanding the question.

If Ranger and I are both town they would be happy to mislim Ranger.

[Vanderscamp]

@vander it's the why I feel is missing? Maybe I'm tired but it feels like conclusions, not procees. This in particular ' understand why scum would want to send Aisa to heaven over me if they know that Ranger is town and they can get an extremely reliable kill there to win the game if they can lim someone other than Ranger today.'

In a world where Ranger and I are both town, if scum sent me to heaven yesterday and then get a miskill on a non-Ranger player today, they can probably just assume I will send Ranger straight to hell, right?

So why not try to do that?

I'm asking about the 'non ranger' mis kill.

I have no idea!

My main point is trying to figure out why scum would have wanted Aisa in heaven over me.

[Vanderscamp]

Because that "get a miskill on a non-Ranger player today" part seems like a potentially huge step? It seemed pretty likely then and still seems pretty likely that Ranger is the target today. You were calling for her to be snap limmed here and saying that if you were sent to the martyr thread that was your legacy.

Sure, but if Ranger is town, do you think it's better or worse for me or Aisa to be in heaven?

If Ranger is town and we flip her here, I don't know who either of you vote from heaven. Aisa was confused and you... haven't really given any recent scumreads other than Ranger. Still no thoughts there?

I think I would vote Drew if not Ranger.

I don't have any strong scumreads other than Ranger though.

[Vanderscamp]

How can you have Vanderscamp/Ranger/Arko as your team?


It feels pretty unbelievable that you think that, that's probably one of the worst predictions it's possible to have, with the possible exception of something involving OE/Ranger, and probably not even then.


You just ISOed me recently, right?

How do you come to the conclusion that I spend about half of the game shitting on Ranger's Arko read, and then when someone (I don't remember who) asked me why I shouldn't have Arko as super town if I think Ranger is spewing Arko, I actively argue against that line of logic?



If that team "makes sense" to you with all of our imo extremely unlikely scum/scum interactions, wtf team does not make sense?

[Vanderscamp]

Like, I'll allow you talking about how I could be scum with Ranger.

It's not actually within my scum range to do that this extensively, because I don't like bussing in general since I don't think the cred is worth it, but it's possible that you would think that it could be true.


I don't think it's a real thought that you think that THAT is the team.

[Vanderscamp]

Like, for real, how much do you think scumMe would have to play against my wincon for that to be the team?

Even if Ranger is town, Arko is my literal 2nd least likely partner because I have no reason to just incessantly shit on Ranger's Arko read.


I'm not trying to clear myself with these arguments btw, they are true, but I think it's reasonable to doubt me saying that it's true, I could obviously be scum and lying about my meta. That's not the point of what I'm trying to say here.


What I don't buy is that that is Aureal's team, that that combo of players seems actively likely to be the team of three scum.
I could be reading too much into my own meta but it just rings very very false to me.


Like, AV is not scum with Ranger because of 239, but I can be and the team makes sense?
Wtf is that?

[Vanderscamp]

I'm really passionate about this now

I read blood as quite towny but that's out the window after that post

[Vanderscamp]

Ok, lol. Why suddenly so passionate, after I just said I'm moving towards voting Ranger, your big scumread? Shouldn't that make you feel better?

I'm trying to solve here, and I'm not seeing you doing it with only the same ol' one scumread. Even if we are going to vote Ranger here, I want to try to have as much information out there on how people connect to others, particularly if we get it wrong and Aisa needs to try to save things. A task which I wouldn't envy, having to sit around and watch but not be able to interact.

Well, by the same logic, shouldn't you be happy with my game-long push on the person you're currently voting for?

I like the Ranger vote but I still think your perspective is very weird.

[Vanderscamp]

I don't have any strong scumreads other than Ranger though.

That's a problem.

There's three scum. I asked my question for good reason. If I were scum I'd have scumbuddies. So who are they?

How can you have Vanderscamp/Ranger/Arko as your team? It feels pretty unbelievable that you think that, that's probably one of the worst predictions it's possible to have, with the possible exception of something involving OE/Ranger, and probably not even then.

This is also correct and is also a problem.

What do you make of the callout which makes no sense?

Ok, lol. Why suddenly so passionate, after I just said I'm moving towards voting Ranger, your big scumread? Shouldn't that make you feel better?

A good question.


Let me say as the party you both seem to think is scum; I believe you two aren't scum together, but one of you is certainly scum, pushing two town players as the team.

The key is figuring out which of you it is and then the likely buddies of that player.

What do I think of the call-out that makes no sense?

I hate it, independent of your alignment.

[Vanderscamp]

How do you come to the conclusion that I spend about half of the game shitting on Ranger's Arko read, and then when someone (I don't remember who) asked me why I shouldn't have Arko as super town if I think Ranger is spewing Arko, I actively argue against that line of logic?

You mean 547? "I think it's more likely they're town if Ranger is scum but I could easily be wrong. If I were 100% confident that it was spew, then I would townread him as strongly." This isn't really what I would call 'actively arguing against that line of logic'. This doesn't really have any sort of conclusion at all, it's a lot of handwaving. Rather like could come from a scumpartner who doesn't want to be seen as too strongly linked to Arko but not trying to actively sabotage Arko's rep since Arko needs to be credible enough to win a heaven vote (or not get chosen by the martyr thread on judgement day).

If that team "makes sense" to you with all of our imo extremely unlikely scum/scum interactions, wtf team does not make sense?

I like how you instantly responded to call your interactions "extremely unlikely scum/scum". As if that's exactly what you were trying to make them look like and are upset that someone isn't reading it like that. Doesn't really seem like a townie perspective- a townie

knows

their interactions aren't scum/scum.

@aureal, I don't think my aisa read was a surprise?

I don't think it should've been a surprise that you might vote her, no. I don't think it was entirely clear you

were

going to until you did it, you'd been talking about both her and Vander.

Let me say as the party you both seem to think is scum; I believe you two aren't scum together, but one of you is certainly scum, pushing two town players as the team.

The key is figuring out which of you it is and then the likely buddies of that player.

"One of you is certainly scum" comes from where? Seems like a drastic statement from someone who hasn't been giving a lot in the way of solving or reads lately.

I wasn't quite at a 'pushing' state for that team yet, more of a 'this is where my thoughts seem to be leading' state. But the reactions from you two are making me feel like I struck a nerve. It makes no sense for townVander to be outraged by a suggested team that includes the only two people he's scumreading. We literally only have to catch two scum. Don't even need to bother seeing if I'm right on him if I'm right on the other two, because the game will be over.

Arko read - someone's asking me "shouldn't you have Arko as super towny" and I explain why I don't.
That's my conclusion, it's not handwavey, and our conversation is the opposite of me trying not to sabotage Arko's rep.
Especially if you think I'm scum with Ranger, the best thing I can do in this situation is say that yes, I think Ranger is spewing Arko town and Arko would be obviously town if Ranger flipped.
If my goal is to look super good from hard bussing, why not do that?



Townie knows their interactions are scum/scum - Are you serious?
This is a higher level of "nitpicking" than whatever the hell OE was talking about on page 3.
Like, when I posted "FIRST" I know that I didn't do it as scum, because I'm not scum, but if someone tried to tell me that me posting "FIRST" was scummy, I wouldn't say "no way man it's impossible for this to be scum because I know that it wasn't a scum post."

I'm talking about what it should look like from your perspective and it's baffling that I would even need to explain this.



"It makes no sense for townVander to be outraged by a suggested team that includes the only two people he's scumreading." - I'm outraged in the sense that you saying this is extremely scummy because I find it very hard to believe that you actually think this.
Btw I agree with you that also hate Ranger's comment about there definitely being one scum between us, that made no sense at all and is scummy.

But I think your recent posts have also been extremely scummy and I think you're probably together.

[Vanderscamp]

Good news, Ranger, I've found another scum read!

[Vanderscamp]

VOTE: Aureal

Can you give an example of a team of three that has interactions and associative reads that you think makes less sense than Ranger/Me/Arko?

[Vanderscamp]

And I would like specific reasons why you've eliminated that combination

[Vanderscamp]

Your Drew/Enchant combo for example: I'm pretty sure that I was the instigator and the biggest advocate of Arko/Ox not being together.

Why would you sheep my read on this if I would be the third scum in that world?

[Vanderscamp]

Ranger, I'm ready to put our differences aside and lim a scum together!


I do not believe that Aureal believes anything they're saying.

Their responses to me sound like justification rather than evaluation.

[Vanderscamp]

But we have like a day until deadline anyway, right?

This game feels a little too inactive for a good result

[Vanderscamp]

OK. Wow. Glad Aisa is better at this than I am.

I think that might actually mean Ranger is town then, and all hell wagons were on town. 3 Mafia OP.

I might have at least been onto something with Vander and AV not really interacting though?

@mod:

is judgement day once per game or does it happen every time parity is reached? That is, if we vote out town here are we done or does Aisa get to carry the whole thing?

Why does that make Ranger town?

[Vanderscamp]

VOTE: Vanderscamp

I am bad at this game

What do you think the team is, Enchant?

[Vanderscamp]

So at five, vote out scum: we win?
Town, we go back to what we just had?

Then...aisa + whoever have to pick?

Seems that way

[Vanderscamp]

I pretty strongly want to vote Aureal today, but I don't want to allow hammers.

My case on Aureal is the same as it was yesterday.



Thinking that the team was Vanderscamp/Ranger/ArkoDrew was a LUDICROUS solve and it's really just not possible to believe that you actually thought this.

[Vanderscamp]

Ranger's first half of #676 and last part of #677 are pretty good explanations of why Aureal's stuff made no sense.

He was giving a lot of credence to the Arco/Ox interaction as never being scum/scum, but not the Ranger/me interaction, when that interaction should have been far more obvious, and additionally I was the main person (correctly) advocating that Arco/Ox wasn't scum/scum, and he was putting me as the third member of that scum team.

[Vanderscamp]

VOTE: Aureal

Can you give an example of a team of three that has interactions and associative reads that you think makes less sense than Ranger/Me/Arko?

I already have, if you were paying attention. I considered Ranger/Vander/AV before this, and discarded it while going through AV's ISO because I don't think Ranger and AV can be scum together.

I think you and Drew are pretty much just open-wolfing at this point with these votes. Why are you abandoning your big scumread that you spent half your iso on for a last-minute spiritual omgus? We still could've voted Ranger out here if you weren't pulling shenanigans.

Drew and I are open wolfing huh

Wtf do you mean "we could have voted Ranger here?"

You spent the entire day having the opportunity to vote Ranger and declined to do so, despite saying at the start of the day that my logic about Aisa or I getting voted to heaven was pointless because getting a non-Ranger mislim today was such an unlikely event.

[Vanderscamp]

Maybe it's confirmation bias but it's really hard to see these actions as something other than trying to get Drew limmed instead of Ranger because I spotted more opportunities to clear people based off of Ranger's flip. I've had the opportunity to hammer Drew for a while now but would have preferred Ranger for that reason. But with deadline 9 hours away, no word from Bella yet, and AV still vla I guess it's on me to do so soon here, before I go to bed. I'm the most confident that he's scum here anyway.

Also, this post is complete nonsense.

Wtf are you talking about with it being hard to see what I'm doing as anything other than trying to get Drew limmed?

This would maybe be believable if I had said at ANY POINT yesterday that Drew was scummy.
I never put any pressure on him at all and I think limming him in that spot over you or Ranger was absurd.

Can you quote anything that involves me "trying to get Drew limmed" to justify what you're saying here?

[Vanderscamp]

Because that "get a miskill on a non-Ranger player today" part seems like a potentially huge step? It seemed pretty likely then and still seems pretty likely that Ranger is the target today. You were calling for her to be snap limmed here and saying that if you were sent to the martyr thread that was your legacy.

Sure, but if Ranger is town, do you think it's better or worse for me or Aisa to be in heaven?

If Ranger is town and we flip her here, I don't know who either of you vote from heaven. Aisa was confused and you... haven't really given any recent scumreads other than Ranger. Still no thoughts there?

I think I would vote Drew if not Ranger.

I don't have any strong scumreads other than Ranger though.

In your "defence", I did say this several pages ago, but this was more responding to you asking me if I had other scumreads, and this was before I started scumreading you.
I never said anything to give anyone the impression (because it certainly wasn't true) that I would ever have voted Drew over Ranger.

[Vanderscamp]

My world is that I think Aureal and Ranger are both scummier than Enchant/Bella by quite a lot.

If I'm wrong on either of my scumreads I feel like it might be Bella, because I'm giving more weight to my own read of OE than Aisa's case on Bella, although I still feel like Bella's case on Aisa was good.

I think Ranger looks slightly better from Vox being scum, but not enough to outweigh how scummy I think the slot sounds in the first place and the fact that Aureal never actually voted Ranger despite having the opportunity to do so.

And the voting yesterday on Ranger is IMO EXTREMELY suspicious.

Ranger got votes from Enchant, my top town, Drew, and me.
For a while, the only votes on Ranger were Drew and me, two confirmed town from my POV.
Does scum never take the opportunity to hammer Ranger there?
Even from your pov if you think I'm scum, Drew was on Ranger for a long time and scum definitely had the opportunity to hammer (Drew and I being on Ranger for almost the whole day is yet another reason why Aureal's solve was nonsensical)


Btw this is exactly what I was talking about in regards to scum choosing to send Aisa to heaven over me.
After a Drew lim I probably would have just snap killed Ranger and scum know that. They can't know that that's going to happen, but clearly they can expect a non-Ranger mislim.
So that makes me further think that Ranger is suspicious.

[Vanderscamp]

Aureal, I asked you to give me a world that was less likely than Ranger/Vanderscamp/Arko and explain it.
You suggested Ranger/Vanderscamp/Vox, which is a real answer to my question, but not really the point of what I'm getting at.


I'll assume for the sake of argument that for some reason Ranger/Vox are never scum together.

Can you give me a world of three that doesn't include Ranger/Vox or Ranger/Vanderscamp that made less sense as a solve than Ranger/Vanderscamp/Arko?



Because, while it's obviously possible from your pov that I as scum decide to HARD townside for the entire game, I just can't understand your perspective of thinking that this is actively a likely team from your pov compared to just a random three.
Like, you saw me play as scum in the Death Note game, and it's not like I was doing any real bussing at all in that game, I was pretty much exclusively pushing anti-town lines.

[Vanderscamp]

Why is enchant your too town read?

More actual thought tomorrow

I just think Ox was very town.

[Vanderscamp]

For a while, the only votes on Ranger were Drew and me, two confirmed town from my POV.
Does scum never take the opportunity to hammer Ranger there?

I seem to recall someone gave an answer to this:

This isn't ELO, a quickhammer wouldn't end the game. If you're town, scum aren't all going to want to pile on just cuz since that will trigger judgment day for Aisa to make a last ditch effort to eliminate a mafiaoso. They ought to be worried about piling onto a bad wagon.

If you are mafia, Vander, then this doesn't apply;
If Aureal is mafia, then Aureal is explaining why scum didn't pile on.

Either way, the explanation for why I wasn't voted out by scum is there.

If you are scum, then the scum couldn't pile on.
If Aureal is scum, then the scum could've but deliberately avoided doing so.

Tomorrow (24h from now), I'll review AV interactions/stances and others' view of AV.

I mean, I don't expect mafia to hammer you in the sense of just quickhammering you for no reason, but you seemed like a very obvious kill to the extent that Aureal thought it was weird that I would even suggest the idea of scum getting a non-you miskill today.

I think the vote on you yesterday was very towny and I think scum could easily have voted you and not looked bad, and almost certainly looked better than all of the people who voted Drew.

[Vanderscamp]

Don't hammer me btw, I'm busy atm and want to address this stuff

[Vanderscamp]

Because, while it's obviously possible from your pov that I as scum decide to HARD townside for the entire game, I just can't understand your perspective of thinking that this is actively a likely team from your pov compared to just a random three.
Like, you saw me play as scum in the Death Note game, and it's not like I was doing any real bussing at all in that game, I was pretty much exclusively pushing anti-town lines.

To be clear, Vander is citing Death Note, a game in which scum's win condition is to not let scum leader "Kira" die. He is citing this as evidence that it's ludicrous of me to think that he could bus here in this game. Trying to bus in Death Note would have

literally

been game throwing. (Not to mention pretty damn hard seeing as scum didn't have communications or even much knowledge of each other.)

Also, "HARD townside" huh? I guess this is just him saying he's super-towny because he says so?

I have a huge amount of things I want to say to this so I'll just keep requoting this post and address all of them.


Firstly, I think your progression on me this game on me was super weird.

You apparently deep dived my entire iso and called me pretty solid overall.
Our next interactions were mainly you discussing with me my analysis of Aisa getting sent to heaven, including shitting on my take, which later turned out to be what actually happened, of the notion of someone other than Ranger being a mislim D3 with Ranger being such an obvious flip for the day.
I'm pretty interested to hear why if you didn't like Ranger and thought they were an obvious flip, why you never voted them at any point.

After that, you make post #622, which is essentially you starting to sheep a read by Vox of all people that Ranger and I could be distancing.

The next post you make is that a team of Ranger/Vanderscamp/Arko "makes sense," I'll talk more about this in a moment but there's something in #622 I'd like to address first.

[Vanderscamp]

@vander it's the why I feel is missing? Maybe I'm tired but it feels like conclusions, not procees. This in particular ' understand why scum would want to send Aisa to heaven over me if they know that Ranger is town and they can get an extremely reliable kill there to win the game if they can lim someone other than Ranger today.'

In a world where Ranger and I are both town, if scum sent me to heaven yesterday and then get a miskill on a non-Ranger player today, they can probably just assume I will send Ranger straight to hell, right?

So why not try to do that?

I actually like the reasoning here from vanders, but as was then pointed out by Aureal, that was not a likely scenario to occur since Ranger was going to be likely limmed anyway…I mean, I can see a world in which vanders is making a play that they’re all about this scenario to distance from ranger should they flip scum with the ascension to heaven, but like, is anyone going to buy that after they flip?*

Aureal what are your thoughts here with the vanders questioning? Like I’m not sure what longevity a play has where vanders promises to judgement day Ranger if vanders is scum who’s looking likely to go to heaven?

My thoughts are about whether all the Ranger/Vander fighting has been distancing, yeah. It does suck up an awful lot of Vander's attention.

Arghhh but then the thing that’s gnawing at me is I’m ALSO not sure why Ranger supported the vanders wagon, as town or scum that doesn’t make sense from Ranger if vanders is town. Unless it’s both of them are scum together and Ranger just got a bit eager and derailed his own partners wagon by offering support for it??

I have no answers for that either. I feel like if they were scum together and that was all a plan to get Vander voted to heaven, Ranger could be a little more patient there. But I think that was about the time I got in so maybe they suddenly got nervous that I was going to sway things to Aisa's side? I'll have to look back at that.

*actually…does vanders get more distancing cred with the above play if ranger is limmed, ie ranger flips scum and vanders then looks super townie for saying they’d judgement day them? Vs the distancing cred ranger would get if vanders was sent to heaven. Like could the play here have been gain the maximum cred for a d2 heaven vote for vanders???

:s

Not sure I'm entirely following you there, but I'd think they'd have preferred Vander getting the heaven vote we just had, unless that's what you meant by d2? Terminology is a bit weird in this game. The plan could've been that Ranger would get bussed D1 to get Vander the cred for the following heaven vote. Then the third, who's stayed hands off enough to not be easily identifiable, gets another heaven vote. But then since Aisa and Bella turned the wagon onto Kowah even after it looked like Ranger was going down, Vander didn't quite have the oomph for the heaven vote?

I'd like to address the bold part.

During that entire day, Ranger had Aisa as their top town, with me as secondary town, and never voted me at any point despite having the opportunity to hammer me to heaven, and instantly voted the Aisa wagon when it came about, despite voting with one of their scum reads Vox (IIRC), despite using Vox's "bad company" as a reason to not vote my wagon.

If you had had a look at this at all, you would have realized that Ranger "getting nervous that you would sway things to Aisa's side" is absolute nonsense based on Ranger's actions that day, it would have been trivially easy to see that that's not what happened EVEN IF we're scum partners together, so you making this statement and then putting us in a likely team together doesn't make sense unless you either

A) never bothered to check this
B) were lying about this being a relevant factor in your read on us two being scum together

[Vanderscamp]

Because, while it's obviously possible from your pov that I as scum decide to HARD townside for the entire game, I just can't understand your perspective of thinking that this is actively a likely team from your pov compared to just a random three.
Like, you saw me play as scum in the Death Note game, and it's not like I was doing any real bussing at all in that game, I was pretty much exclusively pushing anti-town lines.

To be clear, Vander is citing Death Note, a game in which scum's win condition is to not let scum leader "Kira" die. He is citing this as evidence that it's ludicrous of me to think that he could bus here in this game. Trying to bus in Death Note would have

literally

been game throwing. (Not to mention pretty damn hard seeing as scum didn't have communications or even much knowledge of each other.)

Also, "HARD townside" huh? I guess this is just him saying he's super-towny because he says so?

Re: hard townsiding, yes, if your solve was Vanderscamp/Ranger/Arko, what would you call it?

If the three of us are scum, and my scum partner gives a town read on my other partner, and I spend probably more time than anyone else has spent going after any other player this game just relentlessly shitting on my scum partner for their terrible townread on my OTHER scum partner, what would you call that?

I would wager that no one this game has spent more time going after anyone than I've spent going after Ranger.
So yeah, I think pretty obviously if the team is Vanderscamp/Ranger/Arko, then my actions would probably make me the town MVP as scum because no one else tried harder to kill scum than I did.
This is why for you to just randomly say that that team is believable is so weird.

Also, I never expressed any real rejection to either the Kowabungah or Drew wagons on either day, because I didn't think either of them were particularly towny, I actually thought Kowabungah in particular was pretty scummy, but I chose to not vote on either of them because I thought we could do better.

Another slightly unrelated point that I want to bring up is that as soon as I voted you over Ranger, you made some weird ass comment about "oh why are you doing this, we could have voted Ranger today" despite not putting a vote on Ranger at any point in the day.


I'm not done talking about how weird your analysis is yet either, I'll respond to death note

[Vanderscamp]

Because, while it's obviously possible from your pov that I as scum decide to HARD townside for the entire game, I just can't understand your perspective of thinking that this is actively a likely team from your pov compared to just a random three.
Like, you saw me play as scum in the Death Note game, and it's not like I was doing any real bussing at all in that game, I was pretty much exclusively pushing anti-town lines.

To be clear, Vander is citing Death Note, a game in which scum's win condition is to not let scum leader "Kira" die. He is citing this as evidence that it's ludicrous of me to think that he could bus here in this game. Trying to bus in Death Note would have

literally

been game throwing. (Not to mention pretty damn hard seeing as scum didn't have communications or even much knowledge of each other.)

Also, "HARD townside" huh? I guess this is just him saying he's super-towny because he says so?

Also, as I already said a while back, I don't think it's ludicrous to think that I could be bussing Ranger this game.
It's not actually within my scum range, but it's possible if you don't know me very well to think that I could be some kind of extremely playing-against-my-wincon maniac scum busser, and it's not ridiculous to think that it's at least an option.

What I do find ridiculous is for you to just casually mention that as a team.

If you thought Ranger and I were scum together, it's in spite of our interactions together, not because of them.
Right?
Are you disputing that, or do you think that someone relentlessly trying to lim someone is above random to be scum vs scum as a general rule?

You never gave any real reasoning why you thought that that was particularly likely, and especially not for it to be WITH Arko, based on the nature of my push on Ranger, especially since you recently ISOed me.


I'm not trying to say that this is the same game as death note, but that was your experience of seeing me play as scum, and it certainly wasn't an example of me bussing / playing against my wincon.



Like, let's take the Arko/Ox interaction.
If we all saw this obviously not scum/scum interaction and I started saying stuff like "yeah I think Arko/Ox/Aureal makes a lot of sense, I can see Ox and Arko just raging at each other at the start of the game," and I didn't have any real reasoning about why I thought that combo of scum was especially likely other than just trying to discredit the reasons why it wasn't unlikely, I would expect to (rightly) take heat for that stance unless I could bring up some kind of relevant past player-specific history on why that kind of scum/scum interaction would be likely from either player.

[Vanderscamp]

To both Enchant and Aureal, what do you think my team is?
I'm not saying that I don't have realistic scumteams, because that's not true, I just want it on record what you think the team is.

Why am I actively likely to be scum compared to other players in the game?


Aureal, your read on me yesterday was that Ranger and I were bussing each other, and/or that Drew and I were open wolfing by trying to protect Ranger from our own votes on them(???) I'm not really sure.

One of those things you know is false, and the other thing you strongly believe is false.

So what's your read on my team?
Why am I still scum enough to you to justify putting me at E-1, following a vote made my someone who is not the person you are convinced is town today?

[Vanderscamp]

Yeah, but since then? Because I agree, I think I was tr-ing ox when it was 'controversial' but this really doesn't look like town enchant, and enchant knows I know town him.

I don't know town him, I don't even remember enough about enchant to know if I know how to read them well.

Can you talk about why you don't think Enchant is town?

[Vanderscamp]

My team for the record is still Aureal/Ranger.

I think it's extremely within the realm of possibility that I'm just hard tunneling a town, and possibly even two (although I think that's very unlikely), but at the end of the day, I have a really really hard time getting past everything that's happened regarding the votes on Ranger this game.


Take Vox.
I kind of agree with Aureal that I think Vox's interactions with Ranger make them less likely to be a scum team, but I also know that Vox
a) never voted Ranger at ANY point in this game, despite always having Ranger as next on the list.

b) decided to put Aisa in heaven over me along with likely at least one other scum.
Regardless of the alignment of anyone alive today, we know that Vox started D3 with the intention of driving a mislim onto townDrew.
If scum's goal is to get a mislim D3, do they really think that Aisa is a better bet for the deciding heaven vote compared to me, if Ranger and I are both town and I've just been hard tunneling Ranger all game?
Very unlikely imo.


I don't think either of these points are damning, because I can see scum just wanting to leave Ranger alive for a mislim later in the game, thinking Ranger is an easier kill than Drew.
But there were so few scum votes on Ranger D3, I think Enchant being the literal only possibility from my pov, despite Ranger being an "obvious" kill for D3, that it makes me wonder why scum wouldn't have just gone for this D3 and probably not even look that bad from it.
Like, from my pov there were two scum MINIMUM on the Drew wagon, why go for that one? Surely they looked much worse from pushing that?...

[Vanderscamp]

I have no idea about teams i just think you are helped by mafia to rise on heaven THEN SUDDENLY everyone went to Aisa instead.

I think swap from mafia to town is pretty fitting.

Why?...
Shouldn't it be the opposite if anything?

[Vanderscamp]

Enchant reaction test: completed

I think Enchant just might know Vander's alignment. Uninformed Enchant seems most likely to stick with that vote rather than promptly unvote.

VOTE: Enchant

Can you explain this?

What was the reaction test?
I'll probably address some other stuff later.

[Vanderscamp]

Sorry for that quote fail:

Can you explain that?

What was the reaction test?

[Vanderscamp]

Sorry for that quote fail:

Can you explain that?

What was the reaction test?

Of the three teams I consider possible solves, Enchant/Vander was looking the least likely due to Enchant promptly voting you here. Scum lose if just one of them gets caught either by us or by Aisa if we fail, so they're not going to want to help town vote their own out. So Enchant shouldn't vote his partner here.

Except they don't want to get caught by Aisa either so voting a partner to start as distancing then finding some way to move on to someone else seems plausible, especially since it's Enchant so reasoning is not really expected. So I voted too to see if he would move his vote off, and he did.

Now, he could also be skittish about being that cavalierly on a town elimination. But what I don't find likely is that he doesn't know your alignment, put a vote out as his best guess, then decided to go back on it just because e-1 (a measly one more vote!). Particularly given his followup in 743, which makes zero sense if he's concerned about e-1!

Ok, but you voted me to put me at E-1.

What happens if Ranger or Bella had hammered me?

[Vanderscamp]

Enchant, reads?

[Vanderscamp]

What's your team of two, Enchant?

[Vanderscamp]

My top vote is probably Ranger, it's hard to want to have a list of two kills that doesn't include Ranger.

[Vanderscamp]

What's your team of two, Enchant?

Hell i know. Aureal is part of it 100% so 1vs1 here is always win i think.

Try

[Vanderscamp]

To both Enchant and Aureal, what do you think my team is?

I'm at the stage where I'm convinced you're not scum with Aureal, but I don't see how you could possibly both be town. (The game would be an absolute travesty of a mess if the scum were Bella/Enchant watching the three loudest town players be absolutely

convinced

the others are scum. I don't subscribe to that theory.)

That leaves four teams from my perspective:
{Vanderscamp, Enchant}
{Vanderscamp, Bella}
{Aureal, Enchant}
{Aureal, Bella}

I need to take a look at those teams, ideally tonight. (Am multitasking.)

Is there a particular reason why Bella/Enchant isn't a world, other than that we would all suck?

[Vanderscamp]

Ranger's first half of #676 and last part of #677 are pretty good explanations of why Aureal's stuff made no sense.

Sorry for trying to brainstorm in your mafia game. If you think my thoughts don't make sense, explaining why would've been more productive than going OMG YOU SO SCUMMY!!

Is this a troll?

Do you really think I haven't been trying to explain to you why your worldview made no sense?

[Vanderscamp]

Ranger's first half of #676 and last part of #677 are pretty good explanations of why Aureal's stuff made no sense.

Sorry for trying to brainstorm in your mafia game. If you think my thoughts don't make sense, explaining why would've been more productive than going OMG YOU SO SCUMMY!!

He was giving a lot of credence to the Arco/Ox interaction as never being scum/scum, but not the Ranger/me interaction, when that interaction should have been far more obvious, and additionally I was the main person (correctly) advocating that Arco/Ox wasn't scum/scum, and he was putting me as the third member of that scum team.

He? Who are you talking about here, me?

Drew and I are open wolfing huh

Wtf do you mean "we could have voted Ranger here?"

You spent the entire day having the opportunity to vote Ranger and declined to do so, despite saying at the start of the day that my logic about Aisa or I getting voted to heaven was pointless because getting a non-Ranger mislim today was such an unlikely event.

It means exactly what it means. You spent all that time wanting to vote Ranger. Then after I said I was getting ready to do so as well, you jumped on me instead, apparently leading Drew to follow you because the other votes were on himself. If you'd stayed on Ranger I would've been a third vote there, and Enchant being Enchant would likely have hammered. You left me with the only option being to vote Drew out instead. I kept my vote out of play so long because there was no reason to risk the day ending quickly- I know Enchant likes hammers. AV was away, Ranger was sick, game activity was low in general, and I was trying to think and read things- that's not the time to rush a vote.

Maybe it's confirmation bias but it's really hard to see these actions as something other than trying to get Drew limmed instead of Ranger because I spotted more opportunities to clear people based off of Ranger's flip. I've had the opportunity to hammer Drew for a while now but would have preferred Ranger for that reason. But with deadline 9 hours away, no word from Bella yet, and AV still vla I guess it's on me to do so soon here, before I go to bed. I'm the most confident that he's scum here anyway.

Also, this post is complete nonsense.

Wtf are you talking about with it being hard to see what I'm doing as anything other than trying to get Drew limmed?

This would maybe be believable if I had said at ANY POINT yesterday that Drew was scummy.
I never put any pressure on him at all and I think limming him in that spot over you or Ranger was absurd.

Can you quote anything that involves me "trying to get Drew limmed" to justify what you're saying here?

Your actions speak louder than your words. Ranger was the likely wagon for most of the day, and was still viable even though Drew went e-1 as I explain in the above response. But then you decided to vote me at the end instead.

As to the rest of your post, idk what to even say to it.
I didn't "spend all that time wanting to vote Ranger," I spent all that time actually voting Ranger, a full week in fact. You had the opportunity to do so at any point and declined to.

But, if what you're saying is true, that "I left you with the only option being to vote Drew out instead," then why did you accuse Drew and me of open wolfing?
If I'm forcing your hand in that way, then surely you would have known that we weren't scum together, right?...

[Vanderscamp]

Wait, Vox lied about Ranger supporting Vander in the heaven vote and nobody pointed it out until now??? WTF

Watch, Aisa is going to be the only one who noticed it and that's why she zapped him.

He didn't lie, Ranger did support it, just never voted for me, because of the reasoning that I would probably just send Ranger to hell in the next phase.

[Vanderscamp]

VOTE: Ranger


This is still my preferred vote, although Aureal is second.

I think scum are very possibly bussing today so I'm not paying too much attention to things like putting people at E-1.


I believe Ranger and Aureal are both scummy and I think they could be partners.
I think it's possible they're not partners, but Aureal doing his "test" on Enchant and jumping on that bandwagon, which has mostly come out of nowhere today, makes sense in that world.

I think Aureal/Bella could make sense as a world, in which case we could definitely lose if Rangers dies here, this is the main world I'm worried about with this vote.


The world I'm worried about losing to with an Aureal vote is probably Ranger/Bella, Ranger/Enchant could also make sense.




At the end of the day, and even moreso since no one else has addressed this logic (which I would expect scum to if there were two scum outside Ranger/me and I was saying this stuff), I think the voting supports scumRanger.
It's possible scum just decided to pivot to Drew on the crucial D3 when they were presumably going for the win, but this just seems pretty weird that one scum maximum (Enchant) would have voted for Ranger, when Ranger felt like a consensus kill that scum could have easily gotten away with, and would likely have made me in particular look quite bad, instead of going for the Drew wagon, which almost definitely made the scum team look worse, with two scum minimum voting there and Vox having started it.

Even Ranger surviving over Kowabungah is somewhat suspicious.

There's no smoking gun for Ranger that would have been impossible to happen if Ranger were town, but it all adds up to a pretty unlikely game if it's the case.

[Vanderscamp]

^ feels more like town enchant than any other post@ aureal

Not to me, lol. We don't have control over what Aisa does and Enchant pretending we do is disingenuous.

Help, I used the word disingenuous in an argument! I hate when people do that.

I get that, but it's more town! Enchant in that he wants to win, rather than to survive. I'd like everyone to respond whether it's a good or bas idea, basically

It's a "bad idea" that is a towny mindset.

If Enchant is scum, he's gambiting that it won't actually happen and people will read him as town from it.

Possible to do as scum?

Sure, but imo it's a point in his favor and Enchant wasn't really on the table for me today anyway.

[Vanderscamp]

Under two days to go!

[Vanderscamp]

Mainly because we seem to be going round in circles: we just retreated from e-1 on aureal, I don't want to vote vander, ranger is the only person enchant hasn't named as target, aureal doesn't seem to want to vote then, but they'd be Vanders top pick?

If we are going to have to compromise, we should be giving aisa the most info possible: how do we do that?

P-edit I feel like rangers been the 'compromise' since day one though?
Pp-edit can you rephras the second post? Im not 100% following

I'm not sure it's possible to fully compromise given we don't have the ability to communicate with Aisa.

Assuming we lim a town and it's getting to Aisa, the only possible method is for Aisa to strongly weigh up who that limmed town wants to kill, but this isn't a perfect method because scum can just try to lim the town with the worst reads.

I think the only method I want to do is try to lim the scummiest player and if that's wrong, hope that Aisa has a good guess.

[Vanderscamp]

Mainly because we seem to be going round in circles: we just retreated from e-1 on aureal, I don't want to vote vander, ranger is the only person enchant hasn't named as target, aureal doesn't seem to want to vote then, but they'd be Vanders top pick?

If we are going to have to compromise, we should be giving aisa the most info possible: how do we do that?

P-edit I feel like rangers been the 'compromise' since day one though?
Pp-edit can you rephras the second post? Im not 100% following

I'm assuming your last sentence is asking me about the Enchant thing:

Enchant saying "kill me and kill Aureal" is pretty towny, for obvious reasons, since if this actually happens and Enchant is scum, it's a scum loss.
I don't agree with the mindset, I definitely don't want to trade my life for anyone's because it just reduces our chances of winning, but I can understand a town having it and I think it's slightly towny.
I don't think it's impossible for scum to fake that kind of line, hoping that we will read it as towny and not follow through with Enchant's "plan," but I lean town on it.

[Vanderscamp]

Wait, Vox lied about Ranger supporting Vander in the heaven vote and nobody pointed it out until now??? WTF

Watch, Aisa is going to be the only one who noticed it and that's why she zapped him.

He didn't lie, Ranger did support it, just never voted for me, because of the reasoning that I would probably just send Ranger to hell in the next phase.

"I'll vote Vander if there's no other option" sure doesn't sound like support to me, just resignment. IDK how you two can think it's reasonable to call it that. He certainly confused me with it. So let me come back to this:

During that entire day, Ranger had Aisa as their top town, with me as secondary town, and never voted me at any point despite having the opportunity to hammer me to heaven, and instantly voted the Aisa wagon when it came about, despite voting with one of their scum reads Vox (IIRC), despite using Vox's "bad company" as a reason to not vote my wagon.

If you had had a look at this at all, you would have realized that Ranger "getting nervous that you would sway things to Aisa's side" is absolute nonsense based on Ranger's actions that day, it would have been trivially easy to see that that's not what happened EVEN IF we're scum partners together, so you making this statement and then putting us in a likely team together doesn't make sense unless you either

A) never bothered to check this
B) were lying about this being a relevant factor in your read on us two being scum together

If YOU had a look at this at all, which you clearly must have since you point out Ranger never voted you and had Aisa as top town, where is this stuff on Vox coming from at the end of the first paragraph? Ranger never specifically mentioned Vox, who was in the middle of her reads; she just did some analysis that there must be scum voting you. You apparently thought her reluctance to vote you was because of that analysis during that phase, and Ranger corrected you in 553, which you promptly acknowledged. So why are you back to your old argument, and specifically bringing Vox into the argument?

I have absolutely no idea why you think this is relevant, so I'm going to summarise the exchange and stop talking about it.

Ranger had me as quite towny but never voted me for heaven that day, because of a combination of having Aisa as even townier and not wanting me specifically to be in heaven, both of which are reasonable stances from townRanger.

I don't really care that much about what Vox had to say about it but I think you going "oh no, why didn't anyone tell me Vox lied" is partially accurate but performative. Like, when I tried to explain the Ranger/me actions and how none of it made sense for scum/scum and you ignored it were you also lying about it?...

[Vanderscamp]

TBf noone else wants to talk about your plan so I am getting worried that I'm being thick here. But we have two days and noone wants to talk to me about consensus either.

My "plan" is to kill Aureal and Ranger in some combination because I don't think that loses the game basically ever.
If we lim Aureal and they flip town, I would not want Aisa to finish the job and lim Enchant just for the sake of it because those aren't my reads.

[Vanderscamp]

Having looked at Vanderscamp's iso, I definitely see Vanderscamp partnered with Aurorus. Their friendliness with each other was mutual. AV had Vanderscamp as strongest townread essentially unexplained, Vanderscamp townread AV and had interactions with AV which look partnery.

Still, this is early, so not definitive yet.

Elaborate on partnery interactions please

[Vanderscamp]

I save your time: I will not vote anyone else. Therefore you can't elim anyone without my help or mafia help (protip mafia will not vote each other)

Wrong. You're the deadline elimination as things stand because you got voted first. How can you make a basic mech fail like that?

Oh nice, I also assumed majority was required.

[Vanderscamp]

Okay so Vox had Vander as strongest townread.
Vox voted for Vander to go to heaven.
Vox defended Oclaxian Empire at points.

Vox justified a BloodB0t/Aureal townread, but had them mid.

Vander had Vox as a strong townread.
Vander defended Oclaxian Empire.

By far the team which seems to fit best is {Vanderscamp, Enchant} given the AV interactions and their interactions with each other, but I admit I'm cutting corners with this analysis.

I'm pretty sure I didn't have Vox as a strong townread, can you quote me ever saying that?
I think I did have Vox as towny for his analysis on you being scummy, which I agreed with.

Also worth noting that Vox was IIRC the first person to abandon the wagon on me during the heaven phase (I could be wrong about being the first but definitely was one of the early voters on Aisa)

Personally, I feel like two scum making it to heaven is the MUCH easier path to victory for scum in this setup, as opposed to basically trying to win a white flag vanilla game where all of the NKs are decided by town.

My defence of myself here is pretty easy: if I were scum, I would have made it to heaven on D2.
We even know that the Aisa wagon was started by a scum at this point.

[Vanderscamp]

I still believe Enchant is townier than Bella btw, if the team isn't just Aureal/Ranger.

[Vanderscamp]

Also worth noting that Vox was IIRC the first person to abandon the wagon on me during the heaven phase (I could be wrong about being the first but definitely was one of the early voters on Aisa)
Personally, I feel like two scum making it to heaven is the MUCH easier path to victory for scum in this setup, as opposed to basically trying to win a white flag vanilla game where all of the NKs are decided by town.

My defence of myself here is pretty easy: if I were scum, I would have made it to heaven on D2.
We even know that the Aisa wagon was started by a scum at this point.

About that.

2.02

Votecount 2.02

Vanderscamp (3):

Vanderscamp, Oclaxian Empire, AurorusVox.

I think the scum tried.

Oclaxian Empire is Enchant.

If three scum vote together, there's no scum to hammer scum into heaven. They have to rely on town hammering.

All it takes for scum to give up on the idea is fear it'd be suspect.

Vanderscamp being in heaven as scum would make people scrutinize the wagon of those voting Vander. It would put suspicion on all three voters.

Per the math, Hell 2 would eliminate 1/3, placing us in 4:2 or 5:1. During heaven 2, get someone off the Vander wagon into heaven, leaving at either 3:2 or 4:1. During Hell 3, eliminate a second of the 3, placing the game at 2:2 (where the townie eliminates the final voter), 3:1, or 4:0.

Mathematically, if three scum vote a scum into heaven on Heaven 1 and the town doesn't vote people on that heaven wagon into heaven and votes exclusively players on the heaven1 wagon to hell: scum can't win.

All it takes for scum to realize they can't win is to math it out as I do, requiring a hard-pivot away from the original strategy.

Don't pretend scum are going to have one plan at the beginning of the game, stick to it the entire time, and then never pivot from it. Scum can, and will, reconsider. They can come up with your plan, Vanderscamp; "It's easier to win with two scum sent to heaven".
And then try to enact it.

And then realize it's a bad idea, and pivot away.

Which is exactly what looks like happens.

Firstly, Ranger, you have BY FAR the shittest and most condemning voting logic of any player left alive, as I've talked about several times today (and no one else has jumped on or even responded to, I wonder why) so this IMO isn't the angle you want to be pushing.

But just to deconstruct what you're saying here:

Is it possible both scum aggressively tried to push me into heaven and then abandoned ship as soon as an actual town voted for me?

Sure, probably.

But you don't explain anywhere in this post why scum would suddenly "give up on the idea and fear it'd be suspect," you just seem to assume that the entire scumteam had some kind of revelation about it.


Your mathematical argument is also a joke:

Mathematically, if three scum vote a scum into heaven on Heaven 1 and the town doesn't vote people on that heaven wagon into heaven and votes exclusively players on the heaven1 wagon to hell: scum can't win.

Yeah, sure, if the village decides to operate under the assumption that it's impossible that scum weren't involved in sending me to heaven, then yeah, scum would lose in that scenario.


But this isn't even close to a given that it would happen, and it's completely absurd that you're pretending this is some kind of mathematical solve that scum could work out, that it's so obvious that the village would do that that scum "can't win."

[Vanderscamp]

If you think it's reasonable for town to just blindly solve by following the votes of who voted on the incorrect wagons, Ranger, I'm EXTREMELY happy to do so.


The living voters on Kowabungah D1 are you and Bella.
This is somewhat interesting because I am a little bit afraid of the Ranger/Bella world where Bella is trying hard atm to stoke the flames of the Enchant/Aureal conflict, and this vote logic supports that.


And the living Drew voters are you, Enchant, and Aureal.




There's a common denominator here, other than the fact that both lims were also the counterwagon to you both days.


So, are you happy to vote based on wagonomics here?

Or do you agree that the extremely obvious problem with your analysis that you're trying to go after Enchant and me for is that the town isn't necessarily voting like a bunch of robots?

[Vanderscamp]

I really don't understand why there is no support from anyone else in the game to kill someone who not only imo sounds independently extremely scummy, but is confirmed to have been saved twice in the past two hell days by confirmed mafia Vox voting on two counterwagons to save Ranger.

And it's not like Vox was calling Ranger town, either, or was the biggest pusher against Ranger (that obviously being me) so it's not like Vox should even have been afraid to go for Ranger on either day.

[Vanderscamp]

Like, Ranger is town and there are two scum in the game outside of Ranger and me who are watching this and not helping me lim townRanger and look super shitty from this being my main push for the entire game?

I have trouble seeing it.

[Vanderscamp]

Caveat to what I said btw, technically the Drew lim wasn't really a counterwagon to Ranger D3 because I think Drew and I had already moved to Aureal by that point.
But either way, Ranger had votes for a large amount of the day with a lot of people talking about how consensus a kill it was.

[Vanderscamp]

Bella, can you give your worldview atm?

I'm not totally sure where you're at.

For me, my teams in decreasing order of likelihood are:


Ranger/Aureal
Ranger/Bella
Ranger/Enchant
Aureal/Enchant
Aureal/Bella
Bella/Enchant



I'm sure there are certain interactions that I'm not remembering that would change these rankings, but this is my order atm.

I didn't intentionally put Ranger in my top three worlds just because they're my top scum, but I think all three other worlds are just pretty unlikely.

I think Aureal/Enchant are less likely to go after each other like this today, Aureal/Bella/Vox as a team means that no scum ever voted townRanger D3 which seems insane, and Bella/Enchant means that firstly my reads really suck, but also Bella's line is pretty weird today because of what Bella has chosen to push / not push.

[Vanderscamp]

I think you aren't scum, it's the read I'm the most confident in by far. Enchant seems scumny by play but I can't get my head around scum! Enchant suggesting his theory. Ranger is really tough to read but the wagononomics look damning, and I just think aureal is straight scum. I think it's more likely that aureal could be partners with ranger, but not impossible that she's with enchant. Enchant not being willing to vote ranger does make me worried.

So I guess teams is like
Aureal/ranger
Aureal/enchant
Ranger/enchant

And I just don't think you are scum. If you are scum, it kind of has to be with enchant.

How I'm actually thinking is I have a town read (you) and a scum read (aureal) and then still two ??

All seems reasonable

[Vanderscamp]

Oh, am I meant to be revenge voting you so your plan works? This ain't it.

All your proposed teams contains me or Aureal. Therefore from your perspective, removal of both of us should win town game.

So why not?

The problem is that from my pov Ranger/Bella makes sense as a team so I don't want to do this.
I also don't want to vote Bella today because there I think Aureal/Ranger AND Enchant Ranger both make sense, and it's not a guaranteed scum hit for me even if I somehow knew that Aisa implicitly trusts me and would never kill me.

Aureal is an okay vote for me today because I think they are quite scummy, but I really feel like all three of the Ranger worlds are individually more likely than every single one of the non-Ranger worlds.

From your povs I can understand this not being true because I can probably reasonably be with Enchant or Bella.

But the Aureal then Enchant plan is not what I want to do because it loses to my 2nd most likely team.

[Vanderscamp]

Aureal has just helped to solidify the townie vibes I was getting from bloodbot

If people don’t like vanders for heaven then they need to be proposing alternatives that aren’t themselves.

Based on my calculations earlier the only person who could contend with vanders for heaven is Asia. I’m guessing aureal would accord with that which I think gives Asia the necessary support too.

Tbh I’d be happy with either, drew being on vanders as well as Ranger maybe pushes me towards

VOTE: asia

VOTE: Aisa

Ok now I am on Aisa, you gonna switch to Vanders now?

Agree Aureal is fairly good vibes

Seconded.

This does necessitate a reassessment from he.

VOTE: Aisa
I'm comfortable sending Aisa to heaven.

I need to reassess my reads to find who to send to hell. (My pool had Aureal's slot there, so with Aureal towning it up, my reads need a reset.)

I'm a bit busy today so I'll handle a reassess tomorrow.

Not sure how to process this, but Vox was not sure about sending Vander to heaven because myself and Ranger were on them.

I then vote Aisa wondering if they would jump off Aisa(and I was liking her for town at this point).
Then Ranger sheeps.........and Vox kinda was gone.

Trying to re-calibrate here.

Okay, I'm reviewing things and this is kind of sticking out to me.

The Aisa wagon was started by Vox. I was replacing in and getting caught up at the time. I'd just put Aisa as town and Vander "likely town though I think he's good at looking town as scum from reading Death Note". At the top of the page the Vander wagon was Vander, Oc, Vox. Drew joins it, and we get this 517 post from Vox, whom we now know is scum, shading Drew and Ranger (I'm not clear exactly why Vox brings Ranger into this at all as she wasn't voting Vander but he acts like she was?? I don't really wanna get back into whatever this is, but looks like Drew got confused by Vox's talk about Ranger supporting Vander too, though.)

So, it's entirely possible that Vox was seeing support building for his preferred wagon, Vander, and taking the opportunity to get off to spare his credibility when Vander flipped scum. I'm not actually sure why he would swap wagons like that if they're both town. Only reason I can see is if Ranger is his partner and he's worried about the judgement day threat, but I don't think they are teamed from their prior interactions.

And then the wagon got away from them, with Ranger, Drew, and then Bella quickly piling on, making it too awkward for Vox to go back? Enchant hammering it is actually slightly sus since I'm not sure a townie would be that sure and it was clear Aisa could make it to heaven now with a self-vote so it could be for some cred for helping send town to heaven. But it is Enchant, who likes hammering things, so just slightly.

I'm also not entirely sure why Vox and likely other scum would want to go for Aisa over me either, this is what I was talking about with you at the start of D3.

My thought was that scum preferring Aisa in heaven over me meant that Ranger was scum and they just expected me to autolim her if it got to that point.

[Vanderscamp]

Fwiw I think it makes even less sense for Vox to swap like that if I'm scum and Aisa is town, I talked recently with Ranger about why.

You both can say it's to spare credibility, but if this is the case, why did Vox even vote me in the first place?
Why would he join the wagon only to back off when it got more support?
You can assume that Vox randomly had a revelation midway through and changed his mind, but I don't get why you would think that would be the case.

[Vanderscamp]

I also don't think this is clearing for me, btw, im not trying to argue that it's impossible for me to be scum with Vox from it, you and Ranger just both seem to be assuming it makes me more scum than town which I don't understand at all.

[Vanderscamp]

17 hours to go.

Can I interest any player in the game with a Ranger vote?

[Vanderscamp]

Bella and Enchant, I think you are the two most likely town here.

Bella is not voting, and Enchant is voting Bella.


I'm not going to do either of those things today.
I'm happy to compromise onto an Aureal vote, although I would strongly prefer Ranger, but I'd like to have some kind of vague consensus so that we don't just allow scum, which potentially includes either of you, to vote whoever they want because town are split.

[Vanderscamp]

I'm never going to ally with Aureal today because she has Ranger as her top town.

Ranger has the world as me/Enchant, so is probably pretty unlikely to compromise onto Aureal.



So even if I'm wrong on one of Aureal/Ranger, there's nothing I can even do about it.


I really don't understand why no one is going onto Ranger with me, but if VOTE: Aureal is what needs to happen to allow me to have one of my top two votes limmed today instead of Bella or Enchant, then ok.



If this is wrong, Aisa, I think the team is Ranger/Bella.
Please kill Ranger because from a neutral pov it should at least be pretty obvious to you that if Ranger were town, it would not be this hard to get votes there.

[Vanderscamp]

Vote Ranger with me then, Aureal.

Do you think we're a team?
Otherwise idk why you're making that post.

[Vanderscamp]

In case "I don't get it" was genuine, I'm trying to vote Ranger but it's not happening and we're running out of time.

[Vanderscamp]

You keep talking about how much you want to get Ranger, but when push came to shove last phase you came after me instead and made that impossible. And now you complain about how Ranger keeps getting away. I don't get it.

Also, if you didn't want me to "make it impossible" by voting you, maybe you could have tried voting with me on the Ranger wagon at any point in the week before I moved to you.

It's just super weird that you're implying here I'm not trying hard enough to kill Ranger, and I can't imagine what point townYou thinks you're making, so I just have to assume you're just saying it to try to discredit me.

[Vanderscamp]

Firstly, Ranger, you have BY FAR the shittest and most condemning voting logic of any player left alive, as I've talked about several times today (and no one else has jumped on or even responded to, I wonder why)

Maybe because I actually don't.

Just a thought.

But you don't explain anywhere in this post why scum would suddenly "give up on the idea and fear it'd be suspect," you just seem to assume that the entire scumteam had some kind of revelation about it.

Well yes. And?

That was my point.

Scum reevaluate. We as town don't know when they do until the game has ended. It could happen at any time for any reason.

Why

did

AurorusVox hop off of you?

It was scum-motivated to vote you, because AV was scum.
It was scum-motivated to hop off you, because AV hopped off.

Why did a scum-AV think voting you was beneficial to scum,

and then

decide voting you was detrimental to scum?

We know AV voted you.
We know AV was scum.
Ergo, we know AV believed voting you was +scum.

We know AV unvoted you.
We know AV was scum.
Ergo, we know AV believed unvoting you was +scum.

If AV believed voting you was +scum initially, but then swapped to unvoting you because he thought unvoting you was +scum, what does that necessitate?

Inherently, it means

AurorusVox changed his mind

.
Inherently, it means

AurorusVox reevaluated

.

We have proof scum reevaluated. If AV hadn't reevaluated, he would've kept his vote on you.
That he unvoted proved scum reevaluated.

The question isn't IF scum reevaluated. We've got the proof they did.
The question is, "what was the nature of the reevaluation?".

To me the far most likely reason for the reevaluation is concluding a voting bloc of scum is a bad idea.

How do you feel about the general premise in games of mafia that scum sometimes make votes that are not purely based on advancing their win condition?
Because your entire post falls apart if you think that's an option.



I'm also interested who you think has a worse voting logic record than you.
I've also already addressed why I think Vox and others might have moved to Aisa over me.

[Vanderscamp]

I have trouble seeing it.

Funny, so do I.

But either way, Ranger had votes for a large amount of the day with a lot of people talking about how consensus a kill it was.

Which players formed that consensus?

You did.
Oclaxian Empire did.
AurorusVox supported you there.
Seems like a lot of players did--including scum.

I wonder why so many players were supporting killing me? Too many for them to all be town.

And for reasons which have honestly been fairly nonexistent.
Accusations of TMI, and now "Ranger has been scumread the entire game therefore she must be scum", are the majority of the reason on me.

Perhaps the reason you're not gaining support on me is because town players capable of critical reasoning have looked at me and came to the conclusion the push on me is empty.

Well, here's a post from Aureal, who is not on your list, talking about how it's a stretch for a non-you lim to happen D3.

Because that "get a miskill on a non-Ranger player today" part seems like a potentially huge step? It seemed pretty likely then and still seems pretty likely that Ranger is the target today. You were calling for her to be snap limmed here and saying that if you were sent to the martyr thread that was your legacy.

You also say that Vox supported your lim, but at no point did he actually vote you, and he also ended D1 on Kowabungah over you as well.
Interesting that he declined to vote you there!


And I know that even if you are somehow town, you're deliberately misrepresenting the reasons I've had you as scum, so I'm not going to bother addressing that.

[Vanderscamp]

why did Vox even vote me in the first place?

A good question!

One which proves my point.

You can assume that Vox randomly had a revelation midway through and changed his mind, but I don't get why you would think that would be the case.

The very fact he unvoted proves he changed his mind, likely due to a revelation.

If he didn't change his mind, he wouldn't have unvoted.

Ergo, he must have had

something

change his mind.

What would make him change his mind, Vander?

Something did!

What was it?

I posit not wanting to be caught voting scum into heaven.

Is anyone actually having doubts evaluating these kinds of posts from Ranger?

Because I feel like it's really, really obvious

[Vanderscamp]

What a shock that both Ranger and Aureal are voting me

For the love of god Aisa if I end up being the kill today, please kill one of them

[Vanderscamp]

I wasn't aware that every time scum changes their vote, it's due to them having a revelation.

This is good info, I might use this info next game I play.


I always just assumed that scum were capable of voting in ways that aren't just blatantly playing purely towards their wincon, that there was some element of deception involved, but now I know better that the only reasoning is scum having a strategy revelation

[Vanderscamp]

Of course, if you assume that scum are ever voting in ways that aren't mindlessly playing towards their wincon, every single piece of analysis that Ranger has given today becomes meaningless, but maybe it's possible that Ranger really does believe it?

Probably not, but maybe some extremely slim chance

[Vanderscamp]

The only thing that gives me any kind of pause is that they didn't both vote Bella here, although it's definitely possible Ranger didn't think she could get away with it.

[Vanderscamp]

Even without the knowledge I'm town, the simple fact is he has tried to take control of the game at every stage, to get his will in place, and the interactions of flipped scum and most likely partnered scum support a scum effort to direct the town into eliminating town.

The thing is, Ranger, I completely agree with you about this entire paragraph.

I have tried very hard to control the game, and get my will in place, but the problem is that for the entire game, not a single one of the votes that has happened was my preference for what to do.

I agree there has been a scum effort to direct the town into eliminating town, the issue is that you and Vox have voted together on every single one of the votes so far.


I don't know how you can have voted with Vox every single day and then say with a straight face that I'm the one who has been part of the coordinated scum agenda.



You even mentioned on D2 that you didn't want to vote me for heaven partially because Vox was voting there, but that didn't stop you from voting either Aisa D2 or Drew D3, which continues to be very confusing to me if you are town.

[Vanderscamp]

You even mentioned on D2 that you didn't want to vote me for heaven partially because Vox was voting there, but that didn't stop you from voting either Aisa D2 or Drew D3, which continues to be very confusing to me if you are town.

Vander I already addressed this untruth about Ranger and Vox in 797, you can stop trying to make hay with it.

You're right, sorry, it was Drew I was thinking of.

VOTE: Vander

Vanderscamp (3):

Vanderscamp, Oclaxian Empire, AurorusVox.

Ranger (1):

Ranger.

Bellaphant (1):

Aisa.

Not Voting (2):

Bellaphant, BloodB0t.

To be blunt, I don't think all four votes on Vander are town.

That'd mean all of {Aisa, Bellaphant, Bloodb0t} would be scum.

As I don't believe those three to all be scum, the conclusion: there

must

be scum on Vander.

I think Aisa is town strongly, and while I'm not sure on my exact Bella read, Bella's above null to me.

I firmly believe {Vanderscamp, Oclaxian Empire, AurorusVox, Doctor Drew} contains 2-3 scum (probably two, with Bloodb0t as the third).

If Vanderscamp is town (my current theory), it's because the scum believe Vander in heaven is +scum.

I

hate

the Doctor Drew vote there in particular.

I knew it was someone that Ranger was referring to but didn't remember who.

That's not as bad then, although I'm right that Ranger did vote with Drew onto the Aisa wagon after talking about hating Drew's vote on my wagon.


Which is still imo not great but much more understandable.

[Vanderscamp]

What do you think my team is, Aureal?

And what do you think the chance is that my wagon gets three votes if I'm scum, given Bella and Enchant's stated reads?

[Vanderscamp]

I can also understand objection to my misremembering who Ranger was referring to with that post, I'm giving false information to the thread that makes Ranger look worse and you're absolutely right in correcting me.


What do you think of any of what I've said about Ranger's analysis today, especially the recent stuff?


Do you agree with all of the nonsense about the only reason Vox as scum could possibly have voted me and then moved away when a town put me at L-1 for heaven is because scum needed to have some kind of strategical change of heart with no obvious prompt for that?

Do you agree with Ranger's statement that "we know Vox voting you was beneficial to scum because Vox was scum," or do you think there's a chance that scum could be playing with some modicum of deception?

Regardless of these interactions between Vox and Ranger that you think can't be scum together despite Vox never voting Ranger at key moments, do you think that that analysis is towny from Ranger?

[Vanderscamp]

Or do you have anything to say about Ranger saying that I'm part of the coordinated scum agenda, when Ranger and Vox have been a part of every successful vote at eod this game and I've been a part of none of them?

Thoughts on the 95% of what I just posted that isn't something I got incorrect?

[Vanderscamp]

I really hope this is right

GL Aisa if it isn't

If it's not, I believe the team is probably Ranger/Bella, with Ranger/Enchant 2nd most likely


I really think what Ranger has been saying all day really obviously just doesn't make sense, she's just making all these really really bad level 0 assumptions and treating it as obvious facts, it's kind of impossible to believe it's real.

[Vanderscamp]

And the fact that there has been no push onto Ranger at all from anyone other than me today should be a pretty giant red flag.

How has scum not used Ranger as a trivially easy and justifiable mislim at any point this game if she is town?

[Vanderscamp]

Why SUDDENLY you changed mind

Who's this?

[Vanderscamp]

Both of who?

[Vanderscamp]

HMMMMMM

[Vanderscamp]

I can still post for a bit, right?


Enchant, justify what you said about people changing their minds, because I don't think anyone changed their minds with their votes and you just hammered a town

[Vanderscamp]

Good luck, Aisa

[Vanderscamp]

Obviously don't kill Bella.

Pretty hard to know who the fuck is town out of Aureal/Ranger/Enchant





I would probably kill Aureal who seems to be scum in more worlds.
Not impossible Enchant's thing with Aureal was a bluff, especially given this voting



There's a case to be made for just killing enchant for his fucking atrocious hammer on me here after being "convinced" Aureal is town, if you do that and we lose to Aureal/Ranger I'm going to be pretty pissed at basically every other member of town but given what just happened it's justifiable at this point

[Vanderscamp]

I can still post for a bit, right?


Enchant, justify what you said about people changing their minds, because I don't think anyone changed their minds with their votes and you just hammered a town

Can't wait to lose to some absurd team of Ranger-Bella then.

I don't think that team is absurd at all, the most absurd thing about it is how bad you and Aureal have both played if this is the case.


Why did you hammer me over your obvious scum read Aureal?

[Vanderscamp]

You're going to want to justify this one regardless of your alignment imo

Is the skill issue you not understanding that?

[Vanderscamp]

Bella/enchant probably doesn't make sense, Ranger/enchant probably doesn't make sense, I think in both of those worlds enchant probably hammers Aureal over me

[Vanderscamp]

Enchant Aureal does make sense

[Vanderscamp]

Ranger Aureal still makes sense

[Vanderscamp]

Ranger Bella makes sense

[Vanderscamp]

Aureal Bella probably does not make sense, Bella is better off just going afk than voting Aureal there because she can probably expect enchant to hammer aureal

[Vanderscamp]

Ranger/Bella
Ranger/Aureal
Enchant/Aureal

[Vanderscamp]

So Aureal is probably just a strictly better target than enchant

[Vanderscamp]

Unless you're worried about the enchant worlds where he really doesn't care about looking shit after this hammer

[Vanderscamp]

Idk


I think any of the three options is fine

Bella could still be scum here but obviously isn't really an option

[Vanderscamp]

I thinked about possibility that both you and Aureal is town actually therefore my choice was shit anyway

Maybe you should have voted Ranger with me then


Is this the best you can do?

[Vanderscamp]

GL not dying, hope your Ranger read was worth it

[Vanderscamp]

I'd probably keep trying to justify it if I were you

[Vanderscamp]

Was it a tough decision though?...


I would still kill Ranger and Aureal over you but I'm not the one you have to convince

[Vanderscamp]

At least it was consistent with Ranger's and Aureal's stated reads

[Vanderscamp]

I still think my pick is just Ranger fwiw

[Vanderscamp]

Was it a tough decision though?...

Yes

Sorry to hear that

[Vanderscamp]

I tried to vote Ranger previous day and it hit E-1 ultrafast

Is this true?

I don't think it got more than three votes, me you and drew.

Did I miss one?

[Vanderscamp]

I tried to vote Ranger previous day and it hit E-1 ultrafast

Is this true?

I don't think it got more than three votes, me you and drew.

Did I miss one?

Well threeshold was 4 votes so

Oh yeah


But then from your pov the entire wagon was town, so?....

[Vanderscamp]

This is what I've been saying for basically the entire day.

There was a maximum of one scum on the Ranger wagon for like the entire one week period on D3, and that's if you're scum. If you're town then it's zero.


I think the townRanger world is just so weird that I'm pretty happy to lose to it, and Ranger being scum is probably the reason scum wanted Aisa in heaven over me.

[Vanderscamp]

Aren't all actions would be under scrutiny and Ranger who is basically being pushed by no one is blatant "judge target"? I mean i would atleast try to distance for a bit.

Even more blatant if they make me the judge I would think

[Vanderscamp]

What did you think the team was when you hammered me, enchant?

[Vanderscamp]

Great work Aisa, great shots both days.

[Vanderscamp]

Also I feel like Vanders deserves a special shout out, fmpov all 38 pages of you screaming that Ranger was scum were sorely necessary and I’m not sure how this game would have gone if not for you

I did get sidetracked with Aureal, that probably made it a lot harder to get her on side about Ranger.

Given the team was Ranger/Bella I'm really glad Enchant hammered me over Aureal, I think the game becomes a lot easier to win.

[Vanderscamp]

Thoughts on the setup?

I would have liked another Heaven phase personally.

It seems very hard for scum to win if they don't get voted into heaven, I like the concept but I would change something about it to make it less townsided.

[Vanderscamp]

Ranger: I think your counterplay is getting one scum voted into heaven, because at that point you're basically playing a normal 5 vs 2 with some additional outs to get a 2 scum heaven win.

[Vanderscamp]

Ranger: I think your counterplay is getting one scum voted into heaven, because at that point you're basically playing a normal 5 vs 2 with some additional outs to get a 2 scum heaven win.

Which runs into the issue I mentioned:
If two scum voted one scum into heaven, and the town accounts for this, the scum are in a no-win scenario. Mechanically, if scum is voted into heaven, town should treat every voter for the scum into heaven as scum. That's the mechanically-correct play.

It becomes winnable with only one scum voting scum into heaven; the odds are still not good.

The only time this backfires is if neither remaining scum was on the scum-to-heaven wagon. In short, an effectively all-town wagon sending scum to heaven.

Sure, but if two scum vote a scum into heaven and town accounts for that and has an autowin, then the flip side of that is that if a scum gets voted into heaven and one scum is off the wagon, then town will have an autoloss, right?

[Vanderscamp]

The optics may be a bit tricky but the result really can't be that bad, right?

Like regardless of wagon based arguments, if the game goes one town in hell, one scum in heaven, then you're just playing a vanilla 5 vs 2 with town controlling the NK but a freeroll to win if they ever NK a town.
It's also very very hard for town to be able to send other town to heaven unless scum is helping them.

Like, this game, like if Bella hammers Ranger D3 and then Bella gets sent to heaven D4 (which should be pretty easily doable without Vox even looking bad), Vox just has to win a final 5, which is not trivial, but he looked pretty good from his Ranger interactions and that definitely seems more winnable than hoping town gets it wrong multiple times with a very large scum pool to choose from. I think you guys can do something like Drew hell D5, me heaven D6, Aureal hell D7 and you're even favored to win with that line.

[Vanderscamp]

Martyr chat was a great read, thanks Aisa!


Also, sorry Aureal for tunneling you so hard.

[Vanderscamp]

Pretty funny that Vanders is getting that Aureal post quoted at him, I'm like relatively sure there's an older Vanders post where he clearly states that scum cannot just quickhammer, lol.

So was I! I initially looked for Vander saying it since I set out to find Vander's own words and use them against him, but I couldn't find them.

I figured I misremembered and it was Aureal all along.

I guess I was right and Vander did, I just couldn't find it.

I did say something about scum not being able to quickhammer, but that was more in the context of scum doing it randomly.

Scum wasn't really prevented from hammering (or voting) you given how everyone was talking about you.