Open 875 - The Kindgom of Zeal: The Queens Chosen - GAME OVER

[Radical Rat]

Where is everyone else?

[LavosCore]

Vote Count 4-1

Radical Rat

(2)

:

Umlaut - Gimli

Umlaut

(2)

:

Lady Lambdadelta - Radical Rat

Not Voting

(3)

:

KawaiiKame - Save The Dragons - Ranger

With 7 players in the game, 4 are required to Yeet unto the Eternal Void .

Day ends in (expired on 2023-04-06 09:17:30)

Mod Notes

Umlaut is V/LA!

KawaiiKame is due to be prodded in (expired on 2023-04-01 10:12:53)

Pronouns are visible under a players name, please use them. If you're unsure, ask!

[Save The Dragons]

sorry im here im still thinking

[Ranger]

Ranger, how do you feel your reads have been in general this game?

Decently good.

I opposed the redFF elim and had him above null at day end, but had him scum most D1.

All three of our nightkills, I had above null, but none of them were ever pressured as scum so townreading them means little (and is usually detrimental).

I was coming around on furtive at D1's end, but when he got a guilty, I sided with Cephrir.

I have scumread both of Umlaut and RR the entirety of the game.
247, 255, 402, 410, 736, 752 (the bottom Umlaut is the correct one), 766, 789, 835, 873(calling both {Umlaut, RR} suspect for their takes on me), 874, 1157, 1160, 1161, 1396, 1430.

As

at minimum

one is almost assuredly scum (yes I know RR retracted, I'll get to that), I'm guaranteed being right on

at least

one scumread.

If {RR, Umlaut} are both scum, I'd rate my reads as A. Not S-tiered, but overall as good as could be.
If {RR, Umlaut} has only one scum and KawaiiKame is the third, I'd rate my reads as A-, maybe B+.
If the final scum is in {Lady Lambdadelta, Gimli, Save the Dragons}, then I had two scum above null the entirety of the game; about B-. Not terrible, not great.

Regardless, I'm content.

[Ranger]

I seriously cannot conceive of a universe where I claim Cop as scum knowing the setup is 6-4. I'm surprised enough that Rat did.

About that.

I actually was convinced this game was 4 cops to 6 doctors. The way most players played indicated to me they weren't cops, so I was convinced we were in 4:6.

Being convinced we were in 4:6 cop:doc actually was a part of my scumread on {Umlaut, RR} yesterday; I was convinced the dual cop claim was to drive the total up to 6 cops so we'd

believe

it was 6:4 cop:doc.

I was genuinely surprised to see a fifth cop flip, so the question becomes if we're in 5:5, or 6:4.

Your flip provides the answer.

[Ranger]

this is how things looked for scum last night:

My theory depends slightly on the alignment of {RR, Umlaut}, however, the basis is simply this:
I don't think the scum were aiming for cops with their nightkills.
Quite the opposite.

I think the scum were aiming their kills based on players who wouldn't be detrimental to remove.

I am LLD's tunnel target. Scum never shoot me.
Lady Lambdadelta is tunneling me. Scum don't mislim me without her, so they never shoot LLD.
You are LLD's secondary push. Scum don't want to remove you, because you make a convenient secondary mislim target.

{Umlaut, Radical Rat, KawaiiKame} are all suspects. Scum aren't going to kill the town in there.

Given this, the scum's kill pool was {Save the Dragons, Enchant}. If you want to float the theory of StD scum, that meant Enchant was the

only

possible kill. Otherwise, the scum had a 50/50.

I don't think they wanted to shoot a cop. In fact, I think they wanted to shoot a doctor. A cop kill confirms the setup has at least five cops, whereas a doctor kill would tell them nothing. I think the Enchant kill landing on a fifth cop was bad luck for the scum, and they fully intended to keep the number of cops ambiguous today.

On that note,

Alright so. I lied, I'm not a Cop, but I had a good reason to.

I've strong reason to believe this is RR trying to save themself.

If you assume the Enchant kill landing on a cop was accidental and scum intended to kill a doctor, RR's claim of cop yesterday makes sense. We'd

eventually

have seven cops in total, but unless the final cop claimed today, the scum would have completely obscured the number of cops in the setup. Even if the final cop claimed today, the scum would still have it somewhat obscured.

RR's cop claim yesterday had all the hallmarks of being intended as real.

The cop kill forcing an Umlaut-RR 1v1 meant they needed to pivot.

[Ranger]

I feel like missing that is +town, as is this whole flurry of posts

I agree.

{Lady Lambdadelta, Gimli} are both town here regardless.

{KawaiiKame, Save the Dragons} contains 0-1 scum.

{Umlaut, Radical Rat} contains 1-2 scum.

[Radical Rat]

If I'm going to be in a 1v1 with Umlaut, why do I not just claim a guilty? If we're scum together it doesn't matter which of us lives, but doing it that way gives the survivor credibility in a way that doesn't happen with me admitting to faking

[Radical Rat]

And if it's just me as scum, I have way better odds at convincing people to flip a guilty result on an impossible claim than a "Sorry I lied" on a still technically possible claim

[Ranger]

it does greatly concern me that LLD hasn't been shot yet, despite being a universal townread up to this point.

Perhaps her strongest push being on town could have something to do with that.

Just a thought.

Well now.
By my count that’s five dead investigators with two living ones, in a setup with a maximum of six.

If anyone else wants to claim investigator, it'll mean both {RR, Umlaut} are scum.

We don’t really need to wait for RR to claim a result, they know the setup, they know the math, so we already know that regardless of alignment they're going to claim a guilty.

The real question isn't Umlaut's alignment (RR will say scum regardless), but rather Radical Rat's.

This might be TMI?
Why would I claim a guilty as either alignment?

As scum, bussing MIGHT be worth it with all the cops dead, sure, but not a guarantee, and as Town? You wouldn't know ahead of time whether my result was on you or Umlaut, so... what's up there?

You claimed you were investigating Umlaut.

We know the setup has either five cops or six cops. You claimed cop yesterday. You claimed you were investigating Umlaut.

Umlaut also claimed cop. So with Umlaut's claim, we allegedly have six cops.
With your cop claim, we allegedly had seven cops, in a setup where the maximum is 6.

I admit you retracting didn't cross my mind as a possibility. I took it for granted the only options were scum locked into a cop claim or genuine cop, and in either case, you were allegedly investigating Umlaut. In either case, you would thus have to claim a guilty, because it would be mechanically impossible for you to be a cop with an innocent on Umlaut. Ergo, as either a genuine cop (who would receive a guilty) or as scum locked into a cop claim targeting Umlaut, you would need to claim a guilty result on Umlaut.

I also said nothing about bussing. Your necessity of a guilty claim on Umlaut doesn't necessitate a bus. The {Umlaut, RR} 1v1 would be forced regardless of the alignment of Umlaut.

It's interesting you're stating Umlaut is scum here, given you have no info suggesting it if your claim is real.
With 5 cops flipped, and you retracting your cop claim, from your perspective if you were town, it should be possible for Umlaut to be a sixth real cop. And prior to today, you weren't suspicious of Umlaut; quite the opposite, you've townread Umlaut the entire game until today.

It would seem that if Umlaut is scum, I'm not the one who TMI'd.
It seems

you

know there's not six cops, and

you

know Umlaut is scum.

[Ranger]

It's interesting you're stating Umlaut is scum here, given you have no info suggesting it if your claim is real.
With 5 cops flipped, and you retracting your cop claim, from your perspective if you were town, it should be possible for Umlaut to be a sixth real cop. And prior to today, you weren't suspicious of Umlaut; quite the opposite, you've townread Umlaut the entire game until today.

It would seem that if Umlaut is scum, I'm not the one who TMI'd.
It seems

you

know there's not six cops, and

you

know Umlaut is scum.

Let me explain this: Radical Rat is treating the game like there is only five cops.
They explained their reason why, but their reason makes no sense:

Scum did NOT believe my claim, because if they did, either Umlaut or Ranger would be dead.

This is done with the knowledge of Enchant having flipped cop already. Enchant wasn't a flipped cop when the scum made their kill last night.

We know the setup is

either

6:4 cop:doc

or

5:5. The scum know which of the two it is.

Yesterday, we had 3 flipped cops, with 2 claimed cops: Umlaut and Radical Rat.

The scum mechanically could

not

disbelieve Radical Rat last night

.

If we have a 6:4 setup, then with three flipped cops, Umlaut + RR would leave one cop

missing

.
If we have a 5:5 setup, then with three flipped cops, Umlaut + RR fills the gap, leaving the scum believing all remaining players are doctors.

Ergo, Radical Rat's assertion the scum didn't believe them is factually impossible, unless of course the scum knew their claim was fake by virtue of RR being scum.
(This, aside from how RR was being protected, and Ranger/Umlaut kills conftown me which forces LLD to give up the tunnel on me.)

If

Radical Rat were really a doctor, then

from RR's perspective

, the game should be

either

6:4,

or

5:5. Radical Rat has no information to believe otherwise, given the above.

Radical Rat's read on Umlaut prior to today was positive. (It's hard to track down with a control-f search since most is in posts not mentioning Umlaut by name, but it's there.)

Radical Rat's push on Umlaut appears as TMI of

knowing

Umlaut is scum and

knowing

we're in 5:5.

[Ranger]

If I'm going to be in a 1v1 with Umlaut, why do I not just claim a guilty? If we're scum together it doesn't matter which of us lives, but doing it that way gives the survivor credibility in a way that doesn't happen with me admitting to faking

You're not dumb.
If Umlaut is town, entering into a 1v1 with him means you die either today or tomorrow.
If Umlaut is town, you likely die today in said 1v1.
Retracting leaves you a method of escape.

If Umlaut is scum, you entering into a 1v1

guarantees

dead scum today.
Retracting (and claiming doctor who acts tonight) leaves the option, however remote, of a nonscum elimination today/tomorrow.

If Umlaut is scum and you enter into a 1v1, there's a good chance

you die today

, which is the worst-case scenario for scum:
Umlaut as the last scum, with an innocent on Ranger, and LLD in the game. Either the scum leave me alive for 5p to kill LLD, or kill me and deal with LLD. In either case, the outlook for Umlaut is terrible. His 1v1 with you doesn't save his life, and leaves him in prime position to be eliminated because regardless of which of {LLD, Ranger} is killed, both would want Umlaut dead D5.

Retracting the claim and claiming a doctor which acts tonight allows you to guarantee you're not the scum who dies today.

With Umlaut dead today, LLD guns for me D5 opening up a path to a 3p lylo.
With RR dead today, LLD/Ranger gun for Umlaut D5.

By retracting the claim and claiming N4 doctor, you ensure instead of Radical Rat, it is Umlaut who takes the fall today. Regardless of Umlaut's alignment, that's +scum for you.

[Ranger]

While I believe Radical Rat has a higher chance of flipping scum, I believe this is the correct play given LLD will never not vote me.

VOTE: Umlaut

In the unlikely event of RR being town (they're not), a RR mislim today would lead to an Umlaut elim tomorrow and LLD voting me in lylo (a town loss).

In the likely event Umlaut is scum, an Umlaut elimination means a likely Ranger elimination tomorrow, and we are left with a 3p taking into account the removal of the game-long tunnel.

[Radical Rat]

We had four flipped cops yesterday, that's why Enchant makes five.

redFF
Detective Penguin
furtiveglance
Ethel

And now Enchant

[KawaiiKame]

Alright so. I lied, I'm not a Cop, but I had a good reason to.

I didn't know if we had more cops left or not, but I knew scum did know. So I thought an easy way to find out if there were enough Cops in the setup was to see if scum would believe there was another one. So I alluded to checking Ranger/Umlaut hoping scum would kill there and confirm something.

I wanted to keep it at that rather than claim outright, but when Gimli claimed trying to find a Cop to protect, I figured there PROBABLY wasn't another one I was stealing the protection from, which was a huge mistake on my part, but I was afraid that if I didn't fullclaim my fake Cop then, scum would do it instead, and it made more sense to have protection on Town than Scum, even if I wasn't really a Cop.

And I did learn from this actually. Scum did NOT believe my claim, because if they did, either Umlaut or Ranger would be dead. This means there are five Cops, not six, and Umlaut is lying.

VOTE: Umlaut

My actual role is N4 Doctor, pinky promise.

I feel inclined to believe you, you feel town to me, meaning Umlaut needs to be scum
VOTE: Umlaut

[Radical Rat]

I believe that's hammer

[Ranger]

We had four flipped cops yesterday, that's why Enchant makes five.

redFF
Detective Penguin
furtiveglance
Ethel

And now Enchant

Correct, but Enchant wasn't dead when the scum made their nightkill.

And you're insinuating Umlaut isn't town.

With the setup confirmed to be either 5:5 or 6:4 and the scum knowing which it is and with Enchant

not being flipped last night

, then there is no missing cop with your alleged cop claim.

If Umlaut is a real cop, then the setup would be 6:4, and with 4 dead cops, Umlaut + RR would make 6.
If Umlaut is scum, then the setup would be 5:5, and with 4 dead cops, +RR would make 5.

Which means

regardless of Umlaut's alignment

, the scum

would not doubt your claim

--unless of course you're scum so they already know your claim to be fake.

[Umlaut]

Yeah, I think I'm hammered.

Please don't discount the possibility that it really is as simple as just {RR, Kame}. It would explain the claim retraction if RR absolutely needs to try and argue themselves town to win.

[Radical Rat]

We had four flipped cops yesterday, that's why Enchant makes five.

redFF
Detective Penguin
furtiveglance
Ethel

And now Enchant

Correct, but Enchant wasn't dead when the scum made their nightkill.

And you're insinuating Umlaut isn't town.

With the setup confirmed to be either 5:5 or 6:4 and the scum knowing which it is and with Enchant

not being flipped last night

, then there is no missing cop with your alleged cop claim.

If Umlaut is a real cop, then the setup would be 6:4, and with 4 dead cops, Umlaut + RR would make 6.
If Umlaut is scum, then the setup would be 5:5, and with 4 dead cops, +RR would make 5.

Which means

regardless of Umlaut's alignment

, the scum

would not doubt your claim

--unless of course you're scum so they already know your claim to be fake.

If Umlaut is Town, with four cops already flipped... 4 dead + 2 claimed = 6, which is impossible in a 5 cop game, but possible in a 6 cop game.

Therefore if scum believes me it's confirmed a 6 cop game, and if they don't it's highly likely a 5 cop game.

[Ranger]

We had four flipped cops yesterday, that's why Enchant makes five.

redFF
Detective Penguin
furtiveglance
Ethel

And now Enchant

Correct, but Enchant wasn't dead when the scum made their nightkill.

And you're insinuating Umlaut isn't town.

With the setup confirmed to be either 5:5 or 6:4 and the scum knowing which it is and with Enchant

not being flipped last night

, then there is no missing cop with your alleged cop claim.

If Umlaut is a real cop, then the setup would be 6:4, and with 4 dead cops, Umlaut + RR would make 6.
If Umlaut is scum, then the setup would be 5:5, and with 4 dead cops, +RR would make 5.

Which means

regardless of Umlaut's alignment

, the scum

would not doubt your claim

--unless of course you're scum so they already know your claim to be fake.

Simply put: Enchant did not claim cop.

The scum had no way of knowing Enchant was a cop.

If Umlaut + RR are scum, then there was a missing cop to them. (5:5, 4 flipped, both claimed cops fake.) (Enchant fills the gap.)
If Umlaut is town and RR is scum, there was a missing cop to them. (6:4, 4 flipped, 1 claimed town cop, 1 fake cop claim.) (Enchant fills the gap.)

If Umlaut is town and RR is town,

there was no missing cop to them

. (6:4, 4 flipped, Umlaut+RR makes 6.) (Enchant brings this above the total.)

[Radical Rat]

Yeah, I think I'm hammered.

Please don't discount the possibility that it really is as simple as just {RR, Kame}. It would explain the claim retraction if RR absolutely needs to try and argue themselves town to win.

If we're TvT we probably just lose tbh

[Umlaut]

My reads weren't too good this game but I think I did the best I could to argue myself town and, if nothing else, I saved us a likely mislaunch with the Ranger check. Good luck town, you're going to need it in this endgame.

[Ranger]

We had four flipped cops yesterday, that's why Enchant makes five.

redFF
Detective Penguin
furtiveglance
Ethel

And now Enchant

Correct, but Enchant wasn't dead when the scum made their nightkill.

And you're insinuating Umlaut isn't town.

With the setup confirmed to be either 5:5 or 6:4 and the scum knowing which it is and with Enchant

not being flipped last night

, then there is no missing cop with your alleged cop claim.

If Umlaut is a real cop, then the setup would be 6:4, and with 4 dead cops, Umlaut + RR would make 6.
If Umlaut is scum, then the setup would be 5:5, and with 4 dead cops, +RR would make 5.

Which means

regardless of Umlaut's alignment

, the scum

would not doubt your claim

--unless of course you're scum so they already know your claim to be fake.

Simply put: Enchant did not claim cop.

The scum had no way of knowing Enchant was a cop.

If Umlaut + RR are scum, then there was a missing cop to them. (5:5, 4 flipped, both claimed cops fake.) (Enchant fills the gap.)
If Umlaut is town and RR is scum, there was a missing cop to them. (6:4, 4 flipped, 1 claimed town cop, 1 fake cop claim.) (Enchant fills the gap.)

If Umlaut is town and RR is town,

there was no missing cop to them

. (6:4, 4 flipped, Umlaut+RR makes 6.) (Enchant brings this above the total.)

For completion's sake,
If Umlaut is scum and RR is town, there was no missing cop to them. (6:4, 4 flipped, 1 fake cop claim, 1 claimed town cop.) (They would think the cop to be RR, but it was actually Enchant.)

Regardless, the math never adds up to the scum

knowing

RR's claim was fake.
The scum always should believe RR's claim as real--unless the scum knew it was fake because RR is scum.

[Umlaut]

Yeah, I think I'm hammered.

Please don't discount the possibility that it really is as simple as just {RR, Kame}. It would explain the claim retraction if RR absolutely needs to try and argue themselves town to win.

If we're TvT remind me to yell at you for the stupid and nonsensical gambit post-game
If we're TvT we probably just lose tbh

[Umlaut]

Er, that came out wrong.

This is why I hate phone posting.