In post 1722, petapan wrote:
In post 1706, Jingle wrote:
In post 1698, Radical Rat wrote:
@Jingle
If you assume I am in fact a two-shot rolestopper, where do you think the setup breaks down elsewhere?
If I assume you're a two shot rolestopper I also have to consider that the setup is townsided, I think.
Adorable's claim is not one that comes from scum. She WILL die before the end of the game, and knowing that her partner was the defacto lim for D2 (It was obvious to everyone, or at least should have been, that I was going to get cerb blood as soon as he claimed that nonsense) she would not have claimed a role with a literal time bomb strapped to its chest.
Fate's role wasn't actually strong. He was a an investigative, nominally, but not one that got hard results prior to cerb's death, because Kamek is pretty clearly non paranormal. Even then, there's a potential for a false clear because of the ambiguity of the results themselves if there's a ghost on the scumteam that can visit without killing (Rolecop?).
Even night tracker is very weak. We could expect one, maybe two results before XLO. With just those two roles, a UB makes sense. If we add a ninja to the scumteam, those roles don't make any sense again.
The real issue here is the sheer amount of protective power we have. If the event as a whole didn't appear to be massively townsided (obviously I can't go into specifics while following the rules) then I wouldn't even entertain the idea that a VT was scum here, but depressingly I can see it being the case.
Everything in me is screaming lim RR today and we win, but here's the shimmy: I think we can make this auto. Wgeurts is conftown. Adorable is just about. I don't see a world where HPE is scum. That leaves, theoretically, me RR peta. If we lim peta today and RR protects HPE while wgeurts protects Adorable, who holsters. We can no lim into 3p with adorable protecting HPE tomorrow. That gets us to a worst case scenario of a 1v1 between two players in XLO, one of which will be HPE.
This falls apart with a strongman, but a strongman that isn't heavily gated just invalidates almost all of the setup and doesn't seem reasonable. Thoughts?
i had this thought as well ftr but i think scum radical rat probably just kills the protection target and goes "oh i guess mafia do have a strongman" etc so i wouldn't count on it at all
reading this again, i am concerned here with a couple things
first of all there's the lack of consideration for a potential no kill. you could argue he's potentially keeping a bluff to force scum to show their hand because it gives them too much credit
but the plan also involves leaving wgeurts unprotected, who no disrespect to anyone else alive, is the most experienced and analytical player out of anyone, while also not really bothering to consider if adorable can protect someone with the bodyguard while docced. adorable asked this question, it was one of the first things that came to my mind when i saw the powerup, it is surprising he would not consider it
further, it feels like setting up a 1v1 where he knows i'm town but has an excuse to kill me and then the flip on RR is very, very easy. in this kind of gamestate scum are usually going to try to not be too aggressive ad keep their hands clean most of the time. i
hate
making this read but usually when someone is trying to repeatedly 360 tomahawk dunk on a player when town has a ML, like RR has been doing to me, they are town who is simply so blinkered they don't realize how they're coming off.
